Charles C. Mann: How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion?
Charles C. Mann calls himself "a fella who tries to find out interesting things and tell others about them." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
to answer that question is this.
of human physical well-being:
average calories per day,
that sort of thing,
you get the same result.
at a low level for millennia,
in the 19th and 20th century.
consumption of fresh water,
at a low level for millennia,
in the 19th and 20th century.
a population or species
keeps populations and species
prevent them from expanding too much.
a species escapes its bounds.
in the Indian Ocean,
spruce budworm here in Canada.
a hundredfold, a thousandfold,
lesson from biology:
into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.
their environment constrains them.
an ocean of breakfast
the edge of the petri dish,
drown in their own waste,
than the protozoa in the petri dish.
think make us different --
they don't matter.
of the petri dish, simple as that.
Is this actually true?
to hit the edge of the petri dish?
this question for a moment
how are we going to do it?
10 billion people in the world,
the things that you and I want:
Toblerone for 10 billion people.
get water to everybody,
avoid the worst impacts of climate change?
to researchers for years,
fall into two broad categories,
properly applied,
our way out of our dilemmas.
by fundamental ecological processes
transgress to our peril.
butting their heads together for decades,
is key to a successful future.
different types of technology
hyperefficient megacities
of untouched nature,
transitioned from atoms to bits,
on exploiting nature.
comes from compact nuclear plants;
with ultraproductive,
tended by robots;
desalination plants,
exploit rivers and aquifers.
but walkable megacities,
of maximum human aspiration
food and water, they point out.
given us massive soil erosion,
and ruined soil microbiomes.
equally giant piles of toxic salt
impossible to dispose of.
an actually existing megacity
except for possibly Tokyo,
of corruption and inequality?
of smaller, interconnected communities,
of maximum human connection
in the countryside in this vision,
solar and wind installations
from giant desalination plants.
from small-scale networks of farms
like wheat and rice.
people changing their habits.
they take their renewable-powered train.
hot showers every morning.
like Michael Pollan says,
submitting to nature's restraints
healthier way of life.
regression, and global poverty.
only extends the human footprint
into low-wage agricultural labor.
that doesn't exist yet.
on growth and development.
to the prophets' emphasis
was one of unbridled growth,
may well be the choice we make
resolved, in one way or another,
into the world of 10 billion.
biologists should be rolling their eyes
all of this, wizards, prophets,
you think you're taking.
see the edge of the petri dish approaching
time to change society"?
and we're part of life.
you have to take this into consideration.
boils down to: "We're special."
and share knowledge
using our accumulated, shared knowledge
genetically engineered crops
in tomorrow's world,
that they are safe to consume
to embrace this technology.
today's growing shortage of fresh water
that cities around the world,
or more of their water
while ago, almost ran out of water.
of its water to leaky pipes.
getting worse for decades,
has been done about it.
that clean, abundant,
is key to fighting climate change,
to build nukes is going down.
that the solution to the same problem
shuttling power back and forth,
anywhere in the world
necessary to develop this technology
wizard or prophet,
the massive alarm about climate change,
from fossil fuels has gone up
since the beginning of this century.
than the protozoa?
between us and the protozoa,
and technology and so forth --
we can go out into the streets,
change the way society works,
literally for decades
to resolving climate change.
occurred less than two years ago,
marches of the past.
again literally for decades,
to keeping freshwater supplies
that generate those freshwater supplies.
there has never been a street
waving signs about leaky pipes.
activity in this sphere
fighting each other, protesting each other
fundamentally, on the same side.
about the same thing:
in the world of 10 billion?
that necessary social movement,
that yelling and screaming going
wizards and prophets join together.
given the decades of hostility?
the fundamental premises of the other.
is safe and carbon-free,
can be hideously dirty
of toxic waste on rickety trains
the countryside is a terrible idea.
to a vision of small,
while we develop and deploy renewables.
modified crops are safe
has caused huge environmental problems.
to a vision of plant scientists
to tree and tuber crops,
productive than cereals,
and cause much less erosion than cereals.
from a random journalist.
right here in this room.
have many paths to success.
much more than mere survival,
survives its own outbreak,
get water to everybody,
of climate change,
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles C. Mann - Science journalistCharles C. Mann calls himself "a fella who tries to find out interesting things and tell others about them."
Why you should listen
Twenty years ago, on the day his daughter was born, Charles C. Mann suddenly realized that by the time she reaches his age, there will be almost ten billion people in the world. How is that going to work? How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody, get power to everybody and avoid the worst impacts of climate change? Is there any hope we can do all of this?
As a science journalist, Mann has been asking these questions to researchers for years. His TED2018 talk is his best effort to explain the kind of answers he gets, and what they mean -- all in 12 minutes.
Mann is the author of 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus, 1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created and his latest, The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World.
Charles C. Mann | Speaker | TED.com