Margaret Heffernan: The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
מרגרט הפרנן: המיומנויות האנושיות שאנו זקוקים להן בעולם בלתי צפוי
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio
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of an American supermarket chain
של רשת מרכולים אמריקנית
needed to get a lot more efficient.
להיות יעיל בהרבה.
transformation with zeal.
הטרנספורמציה הדיגיטלית שלהם בלהט.
supervising meat, veg, bakery,
על הבשר, הירקות והמאפיה,
להקצאת משימות.
got assigned a task, did it,
מקבל משימה, מבצע אותה,
management on steroids,
to drop a box of eggs,
was going to knock over a display,
יילך וימוטט תצוגה,
to bring in coconuts the next day.
exactly what you're going to need.
את מה שתצטרכו.
or unexpected comes along --
is no longer your friend.
is becoming the norm.
are reluctant to predict anything
מסרבים לחזות דבר כלשהו
from being complicated
themselves regularly.
can make a disproportionate impact.
באופן בלתי פרופורציונאלי.
won't always suffice,
just keeps changing too fast.
yes, there will be another crash,
יכריז שתהיה עוד התרסקות,
where forest fires will break out,
היכן יפרצו שריפות יער,
are going to flood.
יוצפו עקב שיטפונות.
and bags and bottled water
לבלתי רצויים,
and colleagues into outcasts:
ועמיתים לדחויים:
so much forecasting,
our capacity to adapt and respond.
את יכולתנו להסתגל ולהגיב.
our guiding principle,
is really going to help us?
must we be sure to defend?
think a lot about just in time management,
עמידה בלוח הזמנים, כפי שנהגנו לעשות בעבר
about just in case,
"ליתר ביטחון כדאי שנתכונן ...,"
that are generally certain
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
למוכנות למגיפות", או ה-CEPI.
more epidemics in future,
for multiple diseases,
למחלות רבות ומגוונות,
which vaccines are going to work
אילו חיסונים יתאימו.
will never be used.
on a single technological solution.
בפתרון טכנולוגי יחיד.
also depends hugely
take time to develop,
when an epidemic breaks out.
friendships, alliances now
חברויות, והתקשרויות,
may never be used.
a waste of time, perhaps,
in financial services, too.
גם בשירותים פיננסיים.
much less capital
being too efficient with it,
so fragile in the first place.
looks and is inefficient.
נראה והינו באמת לא יעיל.
the financial system against surprises.
המערכת הפיננסית כנגד הפתעות.
about climate change
לנושא של שינויי אקלים
multiple solutions,
have been working for years now,
עובדות כבר שנים רבות,
and healthcare systems,
ומערכות הבריאות שלה,
they have certain prediction,
חיזוי כלשהו,
come too late.
to trade wars, and many countries do.
ומדינות רבות עושות זאת.
huge trading partner,
suddenly become unstable.
negotiating all these deals,
הוא יקר, וגוזל זמן רב,
better defended against shocks.
מפני זעזועים.
adopted by small countries
על ידי מדינות קטנות
the market muscle to call the shots,
לעשות את ההחלטות החשובות.
too many friends.
in one of these organizations
by the efficiency myth,
pretty much like the supermarket:
באופן די דומה לסופרמרקט:
seven minutes on Wednesday,
exactly what they'll need,
to the nurses to decide?
the patients got better
about his experiment,
בניסוי שלו,
you can know or predict
or staring at a computer screen."
או בוהים במסך המחשב."
has proliferated across the Netherlands
it still starts with experiments,
זה עדיין מתחיל בניסויים,
and unpredictably different.
to the fire service
עם שירותי הכבאות
the service is just too centralized.
פשוט יותר מדי ריכוזי.
you can figure out
but in England --
אבל באנגליה --
or one of the leading rugby teams,
that all the physical training they do
שכל האימונים הגופניים שהם עושים
conditioning that they do
do exactly the same thing.
even in match season,
on a ski slope, right?
למדרון סקי, נכון?
the players came back
of loyalty and solidarity.
under incredible pressure,
calls "poise" --
to efficiency to try it.
מכדי לנסות את זה.
everything that moves,
that made any difference
that she calls "Love Week":
has to look for really clever,
צריך לחפש, דברים ממש חכמים,
more productive.
of resilience and strength.
these tremendous sources
ובלתי צפויות.
dependence on technology,
what we could, can do ourselves,
עבור מה שיכולנו, ויכולים לעשות בעצמנו,
staring at digital medical records,
ברישומים רפואיים דיגיטליים,
looking at their patients.
we're predicted and programmed to like,
שיועדנו ותוכנתנו לאהוב,
who are different from ourselves.
the less compassion we have.
פחות חמלה יש בנו.
technologies attempt to do
of a predictable reality
infinitely surprising.
everything that counts.
the extremes of stress and turbulence
a number of chief executives
through existential crises,
on the brink of collapse.
gut-wrenching conversations.
the opposite of the gig economy."
מכלכלת גיג (חלטורה)."
of young, rising executives,
מנהלים צעירים בתהליך צמיחה,
that they know the future
שהוא יודע מה יהיה בעתיד
of inventiveness and exploration --
we've never seen before.
שמעולם לא ראינו בעבר.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinkerThe former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.
Why you should listen
How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com