Margaret Heffernan: The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
瑪格麗特.賀弗曼: 無可預測的世界所需的人性才能
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio
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of an American supermarket chain
needed to get a lot more efficient.
transformation with zeal.
supervising meat, veg, bakery,
蔬果及麵包部門,
任務分配演算法。
got assigned a task, did it,
拿分配的任務,做完,
management on steroids,
to drop a box of eggs,
was going to knock over a display,
會打翻陳列的商品,
to bring in coconuts the next day.
exactly what you're going to need.
or unexpected comes along --
或無預警的情況發生──
is no longer your friend.
is becoming the norm.
are reluctant to predict anything
from being complicated
themselves regularly.
can make a disproportionate impact.
就會造成不成比例的衝擊,
won't always suffice,
不見得永遠夠用,
just keeps changing too fast.
yes, there will be another crash,
是,的確會有下一波的崩盤,
或什麼時候發生。
where forest fires will break out,
森林大火會在哪裡發生,
are going to flood.
製造公司會完全看不到
and bags and bottled water
變成人人喊打,
and colleagues into outcasts:
so much forecasting,
our capacity to adapt and respond.
我們適應及反應的能力。
our guiding principle,
最高指導原則,
is really going to help us?
must we be sure to defend?
think a lot about just in time management,
只著重「及時」管理,
about just in case,
that are generally certain
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
就是這方面的例子。
more epidemics in future,
何地或何種會發生。
for multiple diseases,
為多種疾病開發出多種疫苗,
which vaccines are going to work
哪種疫苗會有效,
will never be used.
就會永遠用不到。
on a single technological solution.
單一技術解決方案。
also depends hugely
take time to develop,
when an epidemic breaks out.
friendships, alliances now
現在就培養關係、友誼、結盟,
may never be used.
可能永遠都用不上。
a waste of time, perhaps,
in financial services, too.
much less capital
being too efficient with it,
雖然效率超高,
so fragile in the first place.
looks and is inefficient.
──也的確──很沒效率,
the financial system against surprises.
about climate change
multiple solutions,
have been working for years now,
and healthcare systems,
及食物來源及健保系統,
they have certain prediction,
come too late.
也可能已經來得太晚。
to trade wars, and many countries do.
許多國家都這樣做。
huge trading partner,
suddenly become unstable.
negotiating all these deals,
要協商各式交易,
better defended against shocks.
更能防禦衝擊。
adopted by small countries
the market muscle to call the shots,
永遠不能做主,
too many friends.
in one of these organizations
by the efficiency myth,
pretty much like the supermarket:
還用很像超市的做法:
seven minutes on Wednesday,
exactly what they'll need,
to the nurses to decide?
the patients got better
about his experiment,
哪個部分最讓他驚訝,
you can know or predict
或盯著電腦螢幕
or staring at a computer screen."
has proliferated across the Netherlands
it still starts with experiments,
都還是要以實驗開始,
and unpredictably different.
這種不同也很難預測。
to the fire service
the service is just too centralized.
you can figure out
but in England --
or one of the leading rugby teams,
或說稱霸的橄欖球隊之一,
that all the physical training they do
他們所做的體格訓練
conditioning that they do
do exactly the same thing.
都在做一模一樣的事。
even in match season,
即使在賽季中,
on a ski slope, right?
拉去滑雪欸?
the players came back
of loyalty and solidarity.
及團結度都更新了。
under incredible pressure,
面對極大的壓力時,
calls "poise" --
to efficiency to try it.
everything that moves,
他們的執行長都要算一算,
that made any difference
that she calls "Love Week":
她稱為「愛情週」:
has to look for really clever,
每個員工都要尋找真正高明、
more productive.
of resilience and strength.
these tremendous sources
不可預測的能力。
dependence on technology,
愈來愈依賴的過程中,
剝奪這些能力。
what we could, can do ourselves,
自己做的東西外包給機器,
staring at digital medical records,
looking at their patients.
we're predicted and programmed to like,
會喜歡的人相處,
who are different from ourselves.
the less compassion we have.
我們的同情心就會愈來愈少。
technologies attempt to do
of a predictable reality
infinitely surprising.
everything that counts.
the extremes of stress and turbulence
a number of chief executives
through existential crises,
on the brink of collapse.
gut-wrenching conversations.
the opposite of the gig economy."
「這跟零工經濟大相逕庭。」
of young, rising executives,
年輕的後起新秀對談,
that they know the future
直到我們到達為止。
of inventiveness and exploration --
we've never seen before.
去發明我們從未見過的事物。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinkerThe former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.
Why you should listen
How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com