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Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade? We're winning the war against child mortality
Hans Rosling: Dobre vijesti desetljeća?
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Hans Rosling preoblikuje 10 godina UN-ovih podataka u svojim spektakularnim prikazima, osvjetljavajući zadivljujuće, uglavnom nepoznate, vijesti vrijedne naslovne stranice. Na tom putu, otkriva manjkavosti nekih statističkih pristupa kojima tako bitne priče bivaju izbrisane.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We are here today
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Danas smo ovdje
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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zato što su Ujedinjeni narodi
00:19
have defined goals
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definirali ciljeve
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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za napredak zemalja.
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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Zovu se Milenijski razvojni ciljevi.
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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A razlog zašto stvarno volim te ciljeve
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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jest što ih je osam.
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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I određivanjem osam različitih ciljeva,
00:34
the United Nations has said
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Ujedinjeni narodi su poručili
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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kako ima tako puno stvari koje se trebaju
00:38
to change in a country
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promijeniti u zemlji
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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da bismo imali dobar život za ljude.
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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Pogledajte ovdje, trebate riješiti siromaštvo,
00:44
education, gender,
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obrazovanje, spol,
00:46
child and maternal health,
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zdravlje djece i majki,
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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kontrolirati infekcije, zaštititi okoliš
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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i ostvariti dobre globalne veze među narodima
00:53
in every aspect
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u svakom pogledu
00:55
from aid to trade.
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od pomoći do trgovine.
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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Postoji i drugi razlog zašto mi se sviđaju ti razvojni ciljevi,
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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a to je zato što je svaki do jednoga mjerljiv.
01:04
Take child mortality;
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Uzmimo smrtnost djece.
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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Cilj je smanjiti dječju smrtnost
01:09
by two-thirds,
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za dvije trećine,
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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od 1990. do 2015.
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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To je smanjenje od 4% na godinu.
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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I to s mjerenjem.
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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To je ono što čini razliku
01:22
between political talking like this
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između političkog govora poput ovog
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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i stvarno raditi na važnoj stvari,
01:26
a better life for people.
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na boljem životu za ljude.
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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A razlog zašto sam tako sretan zbog toga
01:31
is that we have already documented
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je taj što smo već dokazali
01:33
that there are many countries
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kako postoje mnoge zemlje
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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u Aziji, na Bliskom Istoku,
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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u Latinskoj Americi i Istočnoj Europi
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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koje smanjuju ovom brzinom.
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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Čak i moćni Brazil smanjuje s 5% na godinu,
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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a Turska sa 7% na godinu.
01:47
So there's good news.
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Dakle ima dobrih vijesti.
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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A ipak ljudi mi kažu: "Nema napretka u Africi.
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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A čak nema niti statistike o Africi
01:54
to know what is happening."
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za saznati što se događa."
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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Dokazat ću da su u krivu za obje stvari.
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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Pođite sa mnom u čudesni svijet statistike.
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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Vodim vas na internetsku stranicu, ChildMortality.org,
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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gdje možete uzeti broj smrti djece
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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ispod pet godina starosti za sve zemlje.
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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Napravili su je UN-ovi stručnjaci.
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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I uzet ću Keniju kao primjer.
02:14
Here you see the data.
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Ovdje vidite podatke.
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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Nemojte paničariti. Nemojte sada paničariti. Pomoći ću vam u tome.
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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Izgleda grozno, kao na fakultetu
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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kada niste voljeli statistiku.
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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Ali prva stvar, kada vidite točke poput ovih,
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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koju se trebate pitati, je:
02:27
from where do the data come?
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odakle podaci dolaze?
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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Koje je porijeklo podataka?
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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Je li tako da u Keniji
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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postoje liječnici i drugi stručnjaci
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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koji pišu potvrdu o smrti čim dijete umre,
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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i koja se šalje u statistički ured?
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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Ne. Zemlje s niskim standardom kao Kenija
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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još uvijek nemaju tu razinu organiziranosti.
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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Ona postoji ali nije potpuna,
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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jer se puno smrti događa u kući
02:50
with the family,
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s obitelji,
02:52
and it's not registered.
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i ne bilježe se.
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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Ono na što se oslanjamo nije nepotpun sustav.
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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Imamo intervjue, ankete.
02:59
And this is highly professional
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I to su strogo profesionalne
03:01
female interviewers
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ženske ispitivačice
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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koje će sjesti sa ženom jedan sat
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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i pitati je o povijesti njezinih poroda.
03:07
How many children did you have?
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Koliko ste djece imali?
03:09
Are they alive?
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Jesu li živi?
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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Ako su umrli, u kojoj dobi i koje godine?
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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I to je onda rađeno na reprezentativnom uzorku
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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tisuća žena u zemlji
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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i objedinjeno u onome što se ranije zvalo
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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izvještaj o demografskom ispitivanju zdravlja.
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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Ali ta ispitivanja koštaju,
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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i mogu biti napravljene tek u intervalima od 3 do 5 godina.
03:29
But they have good quality.
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Ali su jako kvalitetna.
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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Tako da je to ograničenje.
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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I sve ove obojene linije su rezultati;
03:36
each color is one survey.
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svaka boja je jedno ispitivanje.
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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No to je prekomplicirano za danas, pa ću vam pojednostaviti,
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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i dati vam po jednu prosječnu točku svakog ispitivanja.
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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To je bila 1977., 1988.,
03:47
1992, '97
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1992., '97.
03:49
and 2002.
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i 2002.
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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I kad su stručnjaci u Ujedinjenim narodima
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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stavili ispitivanja na svoje mjesto u bazama podataka,
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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tada su upotrijebili napredne matematičke formule
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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da dobiju liniju smjera, a linija smjera izgleda ovako.
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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Pogledajte. Ovo je najbolje podudaranje koje mogu ovdje dobiti.
04:06
But watch out --
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Ali pazite.
04:08
they continue the line
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Oni produžuju liniju
04:10
beyond the last point
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iza zadnje točke
04:12
out into nothing.
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u ništa.
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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I procijenili su kako će, 2008,
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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Kenija imati smrtnost djece od 128.
04:20
And I was sad,
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I bio sam tužan,
04:22
because we could see
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jer smo mogli vidjeti
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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taj obrat u Keniji
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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s porastom dječje smrtnosti u 90-tima.
04:29
It was so tragic.
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To je bilo baš tragično.
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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Ali u lipnju sam dobio e-mail poruku
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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od Demografskih ispitivanja zdravlja
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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i imala je dobre vijesti iz Kenije.
04:38
I was so happy.
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I bio sam tako sretan.
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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Ovo je bila procjena novog ispitivanja.
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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I onda je trebalo samo idućih tri mjeseca
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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kako bi ih UN stavio na svoj server,
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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I u petak smo dobili novu liniju smjera.
04:50
it was down here.
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I bila je ovdje dolje.
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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Nije li to lijepo? Nije li to lijepo, ha?
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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Ja sam zapravo u petak sjedio ispred svog računala,
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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i vidio broj smrti kako pada
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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s 128 na 84 samo tog jutra.
05:02
So we celebrated.
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Pa smo slavili.
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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Ali sada, kada imamo ovu liniju smjera,
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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kako mjerimo napredak?
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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Sada idem malo u detalje,
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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jer UN voli to raditi.
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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Počnu 1990. mjere do 2009.
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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Kažu: "0,9%, nema napretka."
05:18
That's unfair.
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To nije pošteno.
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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Kao profesor, mislim kako imam pravo predložiti nešto drugačije.
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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Rekao bih, učinite barem ovo.
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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10 godina je dovoljno za pratiti trend.
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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To su dva ispitivanja, i možete vidjeti što se sada događa.
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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Imaju 2,4%
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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Da sam ja u Ministarstvu zdravstva u Keniji,
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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možda bih spojio ove dvije točke.
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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Tako da ono što vam govorim je
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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da mi znamo smrtnost djece.
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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Imamo pristojan trend.
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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Dolazimo do varljivih stvari
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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kad mjerimo Milenijske razvojne ciljeve
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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Iako je razlog za Afriku izuzetno važan,
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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jer su 90-te bile loše desetljeće,
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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ne samo u Keniji, nego po cijeloj Africi.
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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Epidemija HIV-a došla je do vrhunca.
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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Bilo je rezistencije na stare lijekove za malariju, dok nismo dobili nove.
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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A kasnije smo dobili i mreže protiv komaraca.
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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Bilo je i društveno-ekonomskih problema,
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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koji se sada rješavaju u puno većem opsegu.
06:07
So look at the average here --
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Tako da pogledajte ovdje prosjek.
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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Ovo je prosjek cijele Afrike južno od Sahare.
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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I Ujedinjeni narodi kažu
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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kako je to smanjenje od 1,8%.
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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Ovo sada zvuči pomalo teoretski,
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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ali nije toliko teoretski.
06:20
You know, these economists,
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Znate, ti ekonomisti,
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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vole novac, i žele ga sve više i više, žele rasti.
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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Pa računaju postotak godišnjeg porasta ekonomije.
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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Mi u javnom zdravstvu, mi mrzimo dječje smrti,
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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stoga želimo sve manje i manje dječjih smrti.
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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Pa računamo postotak smanjenja po godini.
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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Ali i to je ista vrsta postotaka.
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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Ako vaša ekonomija raste za 4%,
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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trebate smanjiti dječju smrtnost za 4%,
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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ako je dobro upotrijebljen i ako su ljudi stvarno uključeni
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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i mogu koristiti sredstva na način koji žele.
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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Je li onda pošteno to mjeriti kroz 19 godina?
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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Ekonomist to nikad ne bi napravio.
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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Podijelio sam to na dva dijela.
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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U 90-tima, samo 1,2%,
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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samo 1,2%.
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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Za razliku od sada, druga brzina --
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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to je kao da je Afrika imala prvu brzinu,
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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i sada su krenuli u drugoj brzini.
07:06
But even this
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Ali čak i to
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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nije pošteno predstavljenje Aftrike,
07:10
because it's an average,
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jer je to prosjek,
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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to je prosječna brzina smanjenja u Africi.
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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Pogledajte ovdje, kada vas odvedem u moje grafove s balončićima.
07:17
Still here,
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Još uvijek ovdje
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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broj smrti djece na 1.000 je na onoj osi.
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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Ovdje imamo godinu.
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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I sad vam dajem širu sliku od Milenijskih razvojnih ciljeva.
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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Počinjem od prije 50 godina
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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kada je Afrika slavila nezavisnost u većini zemalja.
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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Evo vam Kongo, koji je bio visoko,
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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Gana, niže, a Kenija još niže.
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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I što se događalo od tada kroz godine? Idemo.
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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Vidite, s nezavisnosti, popravila se pismenost
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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i počela su cijepljenja, velike boginje su iskorijenjene,
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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higijena se popravila, i stvari su se poboljšale.
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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Ali onda, u 80-tima, pogledajte ovdje.
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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Kongo je ušao u građanski rat,
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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i stali su na toj razini.
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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Gana je brzo napredovala.
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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Kenija ovdje usporava, Gana je pretječe,
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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no onda Kenija i Gana zajedno kreću prema dolje --
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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još je uvijek zastoj u Kongu.
08:03
That's where we are today.
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Ovdje smo danas.
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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Možete vidjeti, ovo nema smisla
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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raditi prosjek ovih nikakvih poboljšanja
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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i ovih jako brzih poboljšanja.
08:15
Time has come
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Došlo je doba kada moramo
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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prestati razmišljati o Africi južno od Sahare kao jednom mjestu.
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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Te su zemlje tako različite,
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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i zaslužuju da ih se takvima i prepozna,
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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kao što ni o Europi ne govorimo kao o jednom mjestu.
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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Mogu vam reći kako su ekonomija u Grčkoj i Švedskoj vrlo različite.
08:32
everyone knows that.
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Svi to znaju.
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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I procjenjuje ih se kako stoje, svaku zemlju zasebno.
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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Dajte da vam pokažem širu sliku.
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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Moja zemlja, Švedska:
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800. bili smo ovdje gore.
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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Kakav mi to čudan poremećaj osobnosti moramo imati,
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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kada brojimo djecu tako pedantno usprkos visokim stopama njihove smrtnosti.
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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To je jako čudno. Na neki način za posramiti se.
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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Ali mi u Švedskoj imamo tu naviku, znate,
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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tako da smo brojali sve dječje smrti,
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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čak i ako nismo ništa oko toga poduzimali.
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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A onda, vidite, ovo su godine gladi.
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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To su bile loše godine, i ljudima je bilo dosta Švedske.
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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Moji preci su se preselili u SAD.
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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I konačno, ubrzo se situacija ovdje počela popravljati.
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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Dobili smo bolje obrazovanje, i zdravstvo,
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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smrtnost djece se smanjila.
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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Mi nikad nismo imali rat, Švedska je bila u miru cijelo to vrijeme.
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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No pogledajte, smanjivanje
09:21
in Sweden
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u Švedskoj
09:23
was not fast.
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nije bilo brzo.
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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Švedska je dosegnula nisku smrtnost djece
09:28
because we started early.
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zato što je počela rano.
09:31
We had primary school actually
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Osnovna škola kod nas
09:33
started in 1842.
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počela je 1842.
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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I tada dobijete taj prekrasan učinak
09:37
when we got female literacy
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kada je narasla ženska pismenost
09:39
one generation later.
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jednu generaciju nakon toga.
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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Morate shvatiti da su ulaganja u napredak koja radimo,
09:44
are long-term investments.
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dugoročna ulaganja.
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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Ne radi se samo o pet godina.
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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To su dugoročna ulaganja.
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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I Švedska nikada nije dosegnula brzinu iz Milenijskih razvojnih ciljeva,
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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3,1% kako sam ja to izračunao.
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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Dakle skrenuli smo s puta. To je znači Švedska.
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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Ali o tome baš ne govorimo.
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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Želimo da drugi budu bolji od nas. I zaista, drugi su bili bolji.
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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Dozvolite da vam pokažem Tajland,
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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pogledajte koja je to uspješna priča, Tajland od 1960-ih --
10:07
how they went down here
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kako su ovdje krenuli dolje
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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i dosegnuli skoro istu smrtnost djece kao Švedska.
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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Dat ću vam drugu priču, Egipat,
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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najbolje skriven, postiže slavni uspjeh u javnom zdravstvu.
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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Egipat je bio ovdje gore 1960.,
10:20
higher than Congo.
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više od Konga.
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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Nilska delta bila je za djecu patnja
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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s dijarejom
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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i malarijom i puno problema.
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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Onda su dobili asuansku branu. Dobili su struju u svoje kuće.
10:32
they increased education
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Povećali su edukaciju.
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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I dobili su primarnu zdravstvenu zaštitu.
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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I došli su dolje, znate.
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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I dobili su čišću vodu, iskorijenili su malariju.
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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Nije li to priča o uspjehu.
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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Milenijski razvojni ciljevi za smanjenje dječje smrtnosti
10:46
is fully possible.
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sasvim su mogući.
10:48
And the good thing is
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I dobre vijesti su
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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da Gana danas ide istom brzinom
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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kao Egipat kada je bio najbrži.
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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Sada i Kenija ubrzava.
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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Tu imamo problem.
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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Imamo ozbiljan problem u zemljama koje su u zastoju.
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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Dajte da vam sad pokažem širu sliku,
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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širu sliku dječje smrtnost.
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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Pokazat ću vam odnos
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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smrtnosti djece na ovoj osi -
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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ova ovdje os je dječja smrtnost -
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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a ovdje imamo veličinu obitelji.
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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Odnos između dječje smrtnosti i veličine obitelji.
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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Jedno, dvoje, troje, četvero djece po ženi.
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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Šestero, sedmero, osmero djece po ženi.
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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Ovo je, još jednom, 1960.,
11:27
50 years ago.
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pred 50 godina.
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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Svaki balončić je jedna zemlja.
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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Boje koje vidite, su kontinenti.
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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Ovaj tamno plavi je Afrika južno od Sahare.
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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Veličina balončića je ukupno stanovništvo.
11:39
And these are
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A ovo su
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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takozvane zemlje "u razvoju".
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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Imale su visoku ili vrlo visoku smrtnost djece
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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veličina obitelji, šest do osam.
11:49
And the ones over there,
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A ovo ovdje su
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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takozvane zapadne zemlje
11:53
They had low child mortality
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One su imale nisku smrtnost djece
11:55
and small families.
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i male obitelji.
11:57
What has happened?
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Što se dogodilo?
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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Želim da sada vidite vlastitim očima
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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odnos između pada smrtnosti djece
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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i smanjenja obitelji.
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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Jednostavno ne želim ostaviti mjesta za ikakvu sumnju.
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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Morate vidjeti sami.
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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Ovo se dogodilo. Sad pokrećem svijet.
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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Ovdje smo išli dolje s iskorjenjivanjem
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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velikih boginja, boljim obrazovanjem,
12:19
health service.
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zdravstvenom zaštitom.
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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Do ovdje dolje se došlo -- Kina dolazi u zapadnjačku kućicu.
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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A ovdje je Brazil u zapadnjačkoj kućici
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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Indija stiže. Prve afričke zemlje stižu u zapadnjačku kućicu.
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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Dobivamo mnogo novih susjeda.
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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Dobrodošli u pristojan život.
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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Hajde. Želimo da svi dođu ovdje dolje.
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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To je vizija koju imamo, zar ne?
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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I pogledajte sada, prve afričke zemlje stižu.
12:40
There we are today.
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Tu smo danas.
12:43
There is no such thing
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Ne postoji ništa kao
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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"zapadni svijet" i "svijet u razvoju".
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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Ovo je izvještaj UN-a,
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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koji je izašao u petak.
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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Jako je dobar -- "Razine i kretanja dječje smrtnosti" -
12:54
except this page.
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osim ove stranice.
12:56
This page is very bad;
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Ova stranica je jako loša.
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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To je kategorizacija zemalja.
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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Navodi "zemlje u razvoju" -- mogu vam pročitati s popisa --
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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zemlje u razvoju: Republika Koreja -- Južna Koreja.
13:07
Huh?
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Molim?
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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Imaju Samsung, kako mogu biti zemlja u razvoju?
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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Ovdje imaju i Singapur.
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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Oni imaju najnižu smrtnost djece na svijetu, Singapur.
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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Pretekli su Švedsku pred pet godina,
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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a označeni su kao zemlja u razvoju.
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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Ovdje imaju i Katar.
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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To je najbogatija zemlja u svijetu s Al Jazeerom.
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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Kako dovraga oni mogu biti zemlja u razvoju?
13:26
This is crap.
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Ovo je smeće.
13:28
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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Ostatak ovoga je u redu. Ostatak je dobar.
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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Moramo imati moderni koncept,
13:35
which fits to the data.
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koji odgovara podacima.
13:37
And we have to realize
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Moramo shvatiti
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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da svi idemo ovuda, do ovdje dolje.
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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To je važnost ovih ovdje odnosa.
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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Pogledajte. Čak i ako pogledamo Afriku.
13:47
these are the African countries.
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Ovo su afričke zemlje.
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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Jasno možete vidjeti povezanost smanjenja dječje smrtnosti
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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i smanjenja veličine obitelji,
13:54
even within Africa.
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čak unutar Afrike.
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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Vrlo je jasno da je to ono što se događa.
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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I jako važno istraživanje izašlo je u petak
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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iz Instituta za mjerenje i procjenu zdravstva u Seattleu,
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
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koji pokazuje da se skoro 50%
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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pada dječje smrtnosti
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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može se pripisati obrazovanju žena.
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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To znači, kada dobijemo djevojčice u škole,
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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učinak ćemo vidjeti 15 do 20 godina kasnije,
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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što je vremenski trend i vrlo je jak.
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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Zato moramo imati dugoročnu perspektivu,
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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ali moramo mjeriti utjecaj
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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u razdobljima od 10 godina.
14:27
It's fully possible
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To je sasvim moguće
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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smanjiti smrtnost djece u svim ovim zemljama
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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i spustiti ih u ovaj kutak
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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gdje bismo svi željeli zajedno živjeti.
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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Naravno, smanjenje dječje smrtnosti
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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stvar je najveće važnosti
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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iz humanitarnog gledišta.
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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Pristojan život djece,
14:47
we are talking about.
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o tome govorimo.
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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Ali to je također i strateško ulaganje
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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u budućnost cijelog čovječanstva,
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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jer se radi i o okolišu.
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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Nećemo moći riješiti okoliš
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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i izbjeći užasnu klimatsku krizu
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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ako ne stabiliziramo svjetsku napučenost.
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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Budimo u tome jasni.
15:05
And the way to do that,
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A način kako da to učinimo je
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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da smanjimo dječju smrtnost, osiguramo pristup planiranju obitelji
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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i iza toga provodimo obrazovanje žena.
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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To je posve moguće. Učinimo to!
15:15
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
15:17
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com