TEDxKC
John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer
John Gerzema: Consumatorul post-criza
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John Gerzema spune ca exista un rezultat pozitiv al recentei crize financiare -- oportunitatea pentru o schimbare pozitiva. Vorbind la TEDxKC, el identifica patru schimbari culturale majore care directioneaza noul comportament al consumatorului si ne arata cum evolueaza afacerile pentru a se conecta cu cheltuitul prevazator.
John Gerzema - Marketing whiz
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
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Bogatii de 13 trilioane de dolari
00:18
has evaporated over the course of the last two years.
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s-au evaporat in cursul ultimilor doi ani.
00:21
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
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Ne-am pus intrebari in legatura cu viitorul capitalismului.
00:23
We've questioned the financial industry.
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Ne-am pus intrebari in legatura cu sectorul financiar.
00:26
We've looked at our government oversight.
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Am analizat neglijenta guvernului nostru.
00:28
We've questioned where we're going.
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Ne-am pus intrebari despre directia in care mergem.
00:30
And yet, at the same time, this very well may be
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Si totusi, in acelasi timp, acest lucru poate fi foarte bine
00:32
a seminal moment in American history,
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un moment de inceput in istoria americana,
00:34
an opportunity for the consumer
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o oportunitate pentru consumator
00:36
to actually take control and guide us
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sa preia controlul cu adevarat si sa ne ghideze
00:38
to a new trajectory in America.
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pe o noua traiectorie in America.
00:40
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
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Eu numesc asta Marea Descolacire.
00:43
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
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Si ideea este una simpla, foarte simpla,
00:46
which is the fact that the consumer
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si anume faptul ca consumatorul
00:48
has moved from a state of anxiety to action.
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a trecut dintr-o stare de anxietate intr-una de actiune.
00:51
Consumers who represent 72 percent
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Consumatorii care reprezinta 72%
00:54
of the GDP of America have actually started,
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din PIB-ul Americii au inceput cu adevarat,
00:57
just like banks and just like businesses,
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asemeni bancilor sau afacerilor,
00:59
to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage,
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sa-si micsoreze creditele, sa-si relaxeze creditarea,
01:02
in daily life, to remove themselves
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in viata de zi cu zi, sa se indeparteze
01:04
from the liability and risk
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de indatorarea si riscul
01:06
that presents itself as we move forward.
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care apar pe masura ce inaintam.
01:09
So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --
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Asa ca, pentru a intelege asta, subliniez,
01:11
it's not about the consumer being in retreat.
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nu este vorba de consumatorul care bate in retragere.
01:13
The consumer is empowered.
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Consumatorul este imputernicit.
01:15
In order to understand this, we're going to step back and look
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Ca sa intelegem asta, vom face un pas inapoi si vom privi
01:17
a little bit at what's happened over the course of the last year and a half.
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un pic la ce s-a intamplat in cursul ultimului an si jumatate.
01:20
So, if you've been gone, this is the easy CliffsNotes
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Deci, daca ati fi fost plecati, acestea sunt niste notite
01:22
on what's happened in the economy. Okay?
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despre ce s-a intamplat in economie. OK?
01:24
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
01:25
Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.
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Somajul a crescut. Valoarea caselor a scazut. Pietele de capital au scazut.
01:28
Commodity prices are like this.
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Pretul comoditatilor este in felul urmator.
01:30
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
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Daca sunteti o mama care incearca sa administreze un buget,
01:32
and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,
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si barilul de petrol era 150$ vara trecuta,
01:35
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
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si acum este undeva intre 50 si 70,
01:37
do you plan vacations? How do you buy?
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va faceti planuri de vacanta? Cum cumparati?
01:39
What is your strategy in your household?
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Care va este strategia pentru locuinta?
01:41
Will the bailout work? We have national debt, Detroit,
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Va functiona ajutorul financiar? Avem datoria nationala, Detroit,
01:43
currency valuations, healthcare, all these issues facing us.
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cursurile valutare, sistemul de sanatate, toate aceste probleme cu care ne confruntam.
01:46
You put them all together, you mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
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Puneti toate acestea la un loc, amestecati-le intr-o tocanita,
01:49
and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time-bomb.
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si aveti increderea consumatorului care este practic o bomba cu ceas.
01:53
In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,
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De fapt, haideti sa ne intoarcem si sa ne uitam la ce a provocat aceasta criza,
01:56
because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,
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deoarece consumatorul, noi toti, in vietile noastre de zi cu zi,
01:58
actually contributed a large part to the problem.
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am contribuit, de fapt, in mare masura la aceasta problema.
02:01
This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.
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Este ceea ce numesc paradoxul 50-20.
02:03
It took us 50 years
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Ne-a luat 50 de ani
02:06
to reach annual savings ratings
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sa atingem nivelul actual de economisire anuala
02:08
of almost 10 percent. 50 years.
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de aproape 10%. 50 de ani.
02:11
Do you know what this was right here?
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Stiti ce a contribuit la asta?
02:13
This was World War II. Do you know why savings was so high?
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A fost al Doilea Razboi Mondial. Stiti de ce economisirea a fost asa de mare?
02:16
There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets. Right?
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Pentru ca nu era nimic de cumparat, poate doar daca voiati nituri. Corect?
02:19
So, what happened though, over the course of the last 20 years --
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Asa ca, asta s-a intamplat, in decursul ultimilor 20 de ani --
02:22
we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.
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am ajuns de la o rata de economisire de 10% la una negativa.
02:26
Because we binged. We bought extra-large cars,
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Pentru ca am chefuit. Am cumparat masini foarte mari,
02:31
supersized everything, we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.
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am exagerat in toate, am cumparat remedii pentru sindromul piciorului nelinistit.
02:35
All these things together basically created
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Toate aceste lucruri impreuna au creat pur si simplu
02:37
a factor where the consumer sort of drove us
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un element in care consumatorul ne-a condus
02:40
headlong into the crisis that we face today.
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cu capul inainte in criza pe care o infruntam azi.
02:42
The personal debt-to-income ratio
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Raportul datorii-venituri al persoanelor fizice
02:45
basically went from 65 percent
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a crescut de la 65%
02:47
to 135 percent in the span of about 15 years.
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la 135% in decursul ultimilor 15 ani.
02:51
So consumers got overleveraged.
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Deci consumatorii s-au supraindatorat.
02:54
And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.
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Bineinteles ca la fel au facut si bancile noastre, la fel si guvernul federal.
02:57
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
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Aceasta evolutie este absolut socanta.
02:59
It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.
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Ne arata indatorarea, din 1919 pana in 2009.
03:03
And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon
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Si ceea ce vedeti la final este un intreg fenomen
03:06
of the fact that we are actually
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al faptului ca
03:08
stepping forth and basically leveraging
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mergem inapoi si in fapt ne indatoram pe seama
03:10
future education, future children in our households.
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educatiei viitoare, a viitorului copiilor nostri in casele noastre.
03:13
So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,
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Asa ca daca va uitati la asta in contextul vizualizarii ajutorului financiar,
03:16
what you can see is if you stack up dollar bills,
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ce puteti vedea este ca daca stivuiti bancnote de un dolar,
03:19
first of all, 360,000 dollars
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in primul rand, 360.000$
03:21
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
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sunt aproape de inaltimea unui om de 163 cm.
03:24
But if you stack it up, you just see this amazing, staggering amount of
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Dar daca stivuiti, veti vedea aceasta uimitoare, socanta, suma
03:27
dollars that have been put into the system
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de dolari care au fost introdusi in sistem
03:29
to fund and bail us out.
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ca sa finanteze ajutorul financiar.
03:31
So this is the first 315 billion.
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Deci acestia sunt primii 315 miliarde de dolari.
03:33
But I read this fact the other day, that one trillion seconds
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Dar am citit asta, intr-o zi, ca un miliard de secunde
03:36
equals 32 thousand years,
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reprezinta 32.000 de ani,
03:38
so if you think about that, the context, the casualness
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asa ca daca va ganditi la asta, contextul, nepasarea
03:40
with which we talk about trillion-dollar bailout here, and trillion there,
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cu care discutam despre ajutoare de miliarde de dolari, ici si colo,
03:44
we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.
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ne angajam in indatorare pe termen lung.
03:47
However, consumers have moved.
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Totusi, consumatorii s-au miscat.
03:50
They are taking responsibility.
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Isi asuma responsabilitatea.
03:52
What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.
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Ce vedem este un aflux al ratei economisirii.
03:55
In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened
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In fapt, 11 luni de economisire neintrerupta s-au intamplat
03:57
since the beginning of the crisis.
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de la inceputul crizei.
03:59
We are working our way back up to that 10 percent.
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Suntem pe drumul inapoi catre rata de 10%.
04:01
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
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De asemenea, remarcabil, in trimestrul 4
04:03
spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years,
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consumul a scazut la cel mai mic nivel din ultimii 62 de ani
04:07
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
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un declin de aproape 3,7%.
04:10
Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards
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Visa declara ca acum mai multi oameni folosesc carduri de debit
04:12
than they're using credit cards.
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decat folosesc carduri de credit.
04:14
So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.
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Deci incepem sa platim pentru lucruri cu banii pe care ii avem.
04:17
And we're starting to be much more careful
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Si incepem sa fim mai atenti
04:19
about how we save and how we invest.
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la cum economisim si cum investim.
04:21
But that's not really the whole story.
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Dar asta nu este intr-adevar toata povestea.
04:23
Because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.
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Pentru ca aceasta a fost o perioada de timp de transformari dramatice.
04:26
And you've got to admit, over the course of the last year and a half,
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Si trebuie sa admiteti ca, in cursul ultimului an si jumatate,
04:28
consumers have been doing some pretty weird things.
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consumatorii au facut cateva lucruri ciudate.
04:30
It's been pretty staggering, what we've lived through.
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A fost foarte socanta perioada prin care am trecut.
04:33
If you take into account 80 percent of all Americans
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Daca luati in considerare ca 80% din americani
04:35
were born after World War II,
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s-au nascut dupa al Doilea Razboi Mondial
04:37
this is essentially our Depression.
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asta este in esenta Criza noastra.
04:39
And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.
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Si astfel, ca rezultat, cateva lucruri ciudate s-au intamplat.
04:42
I'll give you some examples. Lets talk about dentists,
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O sa va dau cateva exemple. Sa discutam despre dentisti,
04:44
vasectomies, guns and shark attacks. Okay?
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vasectomii, arme si atacuri ale rechinilor. OK?
04:48
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
04:50
Dentists report molars,
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Dentistii raporteaza molari
04:52
you know, people grinding their teeth, coming in
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stiti, oameni care scrasnesc din dinti, vin la cabinet
04:54
and reporting the fact that they've had stress.
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si povestesc cat sunt de stresati.
04:56
And so there is an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.
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Si asa creste numarul oamenilor care trebuie sa-si schimbe plombele.
04:59
Guns, gun sales, according to the FBI,
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Armele, vanzarile de arme, in conformitate cu FBI
05:01
who does background checks, are up almost 25 percent since January.
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care face verificari, sunt cu 25% mai mari din ianuarie.
05:06
Vasectomies are up 48 percent,
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Vasectomiile au crescut cu 48%,
05:08
according to the Cornell institute.
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conform Institutului Cornell.
05:10
And lastly, but a very good point,
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Si in sfarsit, dar un punct de vedere interesant,
05:13
hopefully not related to the former point I just made,
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sper ca nu are legatura cu cele afirmate de mine mai devreme,
05:15
which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.
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atacurile rechinilor sunt la cel mai scazut nivel din 2003.
05:18
Does anybody know why?
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Stie cineva de ce?
05:22
No one is at the beach. So there is a bright side to everything.
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Nimeni nu este pe plaja. Iata ca exista si o parte frumoasa a lucrurilor.
05:25
But seriously, what we see happening,
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Serios vorbind, ce vedem ca se intampla,
05:27
and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,
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si motivul pentru care vreau sa subliniez ca consumatorul nu este in retragere,
05:30
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
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este acela ca este o oportunitate imensa
05:32
for the consumer who drove us into this recession
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ca acest consumator, care ne-a impins in aceasta recesiune,
05:35
to lead us right back out.
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sa ne conduca iar inapoi.
05:37
And what I mean by that is that we can move from mindless consumption
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Si ceea ce vreau sa spun este ca putem trece de la consum irational
05:40
to mindful consumption. Right?
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la consum rational. Corect?
05:43
If you think about the last three decades,
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Daca va ganditi la ultimele 3 decenii,
05:46
the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
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consumatorul a trecut de la intelegerea marketingului in anii '90,
05:50
to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade,
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la adunarea tuturor acestor uimitoare instrumente sociale si de cautare in acest deceniu,
05:54
but the one thing that has been holding them back is the ability to discriminate.
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dar ce l-a retinut a fost abilitatea de a discerne.
05:57
By restricting their demand, consumers can actually
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Prin restrangerea cererii, consumatorii pot de fapt
05:59
align their values with their spending,
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sa-si alinieze valorile cu ce cheltuie,
06:02
and drive capitalism and business
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si sa conduca capitalismul si afacerile,
06:04
to not just be about more, but be about better.
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nu numai catre a fi mai mult, ci catre a fi mai bine.
06:06
We're going to explain that right now.
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Voi explica asta chiar acum.
06:09
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
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Bazandu-ne pe Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
06:11
proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,
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instrument proprietate a VML si Young & Rubicam,
06:14
we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis
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vom incerca sa intelegem ce s-a intamplat in criza
06:16
with the consumer marketplace.
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cu piata consumatorilor.
06:19
We found a couple of really interesting things.
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Am descoperit cateva lucruri interesante.
06:21
We're going to go through four value-shifts that we see
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Vom trece prin 4 schimbari de valoare pe care le vedem ca
06:24
driving new consumer behaviors,
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directioneaza comportamentele noilor consumatori,
06:26
that offer new management principles.
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care ofera noi principii de management.
06:28
The first cultural value shift that we see is this tendency
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Prima schimbare de valori culturale pe care o vedem este tendinta
06:30
toward something we call liquid life.
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catre ceea ce numim viata lichida.
06:32
This is the movement from Americans defining their success
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Aceasta este o trecere de la americanii care-si definesc succesul
06:35
on having things to having liquidity,
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prin a detine lucruri la a avea lichiditati,
06:38
because the less excess that you have around you,
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deoarece cu cat ai mai putin exces in preajma,
06:40
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
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cu atat esti mai agil si rapid.
06:43
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
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Ca rezultat, apare consumul declasat.
06:45
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money
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Consumul declasat spune ca aruncarea banilor pe fereastra
06:48
frivolously makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
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nu te face sa fii la moda.
06:52
The management principle is dollars and cents.
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Principiul managementului sunt dolarii si centii.
06:54
So let's look at some examples of this déclassé
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Deci hai sa ne uitam putin la exemple de acest consum
06:56
consumption that falls out of this value.
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declasat care decurg de aici.
06:59
First things is we see something must be happening when
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In primul rand ceva trebuie sa se intample cand
07:01
P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
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P. Diddy jura sa-si tempereze vestimentatia.
07:03
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
07:04
But seriously, we also have this phenomenon
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Serios vorbind, avem de asemenea acest fenomen
07:06
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
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pe Bulevardul Madison, si in alte locuri
07:08
where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques
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unde persoane ies din magazinele de lux
07:11
with ordinary, sort of generic
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cu pungi obisnuite
07:13
paper bags to hide the brand purchases.
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de hartie ca sa-si ascunda achizitiile de firma.
07:15
We see high-end haggling in fashion today.
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Vedem dispute sofisticate in moda de astazi.
07:18
High-end haggling for luxury and real estate.
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Dispute sofisticate pentru lux si imobiliare.
07:21
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
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Vedem si o relaxare a ego-ului,
07:23
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
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si un fel de dezagregare a ingenuitatii.
07:25
This is a story on the yacht club
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Este o poveste despre un iaht club
07:27
that's all basically blue collar.
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care este, de fapt, format din clasa muncitoare.
07:29
Blue-collar yacht club, where you can join the yacht club,
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Clubul de iaht al muncitorilor unde poti intra,
07:31
but you've got to work in the boat yard,
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dar trebuie sa fi lucrat in santierul naval,
07:33
as sort of condition of membership.
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ca o conditie a intrarii in club.
07:35
We also see the trend toward
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Cu totii vedem tendinta catre
07:37
tourism that's a little bit more low key. Right?
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turism care este un pic mai cumpatat. Corect?
07:40
Agritourism, going to vineyards and going to farms.
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Agroturism, calatorind la podgorii si ferme.
07:43
And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.
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Si apoi vedem o inaintare, de la dolari si centi.
07:46
What businesses can do to connect
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Ce pot afacerile face ca sa se conecteze
07:48
with these new mindsets is really interesting.
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cu aceste noi modele de gandire este chiar interesant.
07:50
A couple things that are kind of cool.
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Cateva lucruri care sunt interesante.
07:52
One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing
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Unul ar fi ca Frito-Lay a intrevazut acest aspect al lichiditatii
07:54
with their consumer.
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la consumatorul lor.
07:56
They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,
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Au descoperit ca consumatorul lor are mai multi bani la inceputul lunii,
07:58
less at the end of the month. So what they did
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mai putini la sfarsitul lunii. Asa ca ce au facut
08:00
is they started to change their packaging.
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a fost sa schimbe ambalajele.
08:02
Larger packs at the beginning of the month, smaller packaging
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Pachete mai mari la inceputul lunii, ambalaje mai mici
08:04
at the end of the month.
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la sfarsitul lunii.
08:06
Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.
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Foarte interesant, de asemenea, este clubul San Franciscio Giants.
08:09
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
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Ei au instituit preturile dinamice.
08:12
So it takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,
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Asa ca iau in considerare orice, de la reusitele aruncatorului
08:14
to the weather, to the team records,
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pana la vreme, la recordurile echipei,
08:17
in setting prices for the consumer.
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in setarea pretului pentru consumator.
08:19
Another quick example of these types of movements is
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Alt exemplu al acestor tipuri miscari este
08:22
the rise of Zynga.
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ascensiunea companiei Zynga.
08:24
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
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Zynga a crescut pe seama dorintei consumatorului
08:26
to not want to be locked in to fixed-cost.
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de a nu fi blocat in costuri fixe.
08:29
Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.
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Din nou, asta este despre costuri variabile, standarde de viata variabile.
08:31
So micropayments have become huge.
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Asa ca microplatile au devenit uriase.
08:33
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
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Si, in sfarsit, unii oameni folosesc Hulu
08:36
actually as a device to get rid of their cable bill.
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de fapt ca un dispozitiv de a scapa de facturile de televiziune prin cablu.
08:38
So, really clever ideas there
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Asa ca, ideile cu adevarat inteligente
08:40
that are kind of being taken ahold and marketers are starting to understand.
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sunt luate in considerare si marketeerii incepe sa inteleaga.
08:43
The second of the four values
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A doua din cele 4 valori
08:45
is this movement toward ethics and fair play.
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este miscarea catre etica si fairplay.
08:48
We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.
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Observam ca se desfasoara cu empatie si respect.
08:51
The consumer is demanding it.
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Consumatorul o cere.
08:53
And, as a result, businesses must provide
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Si, ca rezultat, afacerile trebuie sa furnizeze
08:55
not only value, but values.
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nu doar valoare, ci valori.
08:57
Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,
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Din ce in ce mai mult, consumatorii se uita la cultura companiei,
08:59
looking for their conduct in the marketplace.
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se uita la comportamentul ei in piata.
09:02
So, what we see with empathy and respect, lots of really hopeful things
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Deci, ceea ce vedem cu empatie si respect, multe lucruri incurajatoare
09:04
that have come out of this recession.
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care au rezultat din aceasta recesiune.
09:06
And I'll give you a few examples.
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O sa va dau cateva exemple.
09:08
One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,
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Unul este accentul catre comunitati si vecinatati,
09:10
and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.
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un accent crescut catre vecinii vostri ca sistem de suport.
09:14
Also a wonderful byproduct of sort of a really lousy thing,
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De asemenea, un rezultat minunat al unui lucru groaznic,
09:18
which has been unemployment, is a rise in
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care a fost somajul, este o crestere a
09:20
volunteerism that's been noted in our country.
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voluntariatului in tara noastra.
09:22
We also see the phenomenon --
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De asemenea, vedem acest fenomen --
09:24
some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
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unii dintre voi poate aveti "copii bumerang" --
09:26
these are "boomerang alumni,"
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acestia sunt "absolventi bumerang"
09:28
where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni
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care presupune ca universitatile reiau legatura cu absolventii
09:30
in helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.
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ajutandu-i in cautarea de job-uri, impartasind abilitati si reinstruindu-i.
09:34
We also talked about character and professionalism.
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Am vorbit, de asemenea, despre caracter si profesionalism.
09:36
We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City, you know, in January,
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Am avut miracolul de pe raul Hudson in New York, stiti, in ianuarie.
09:40
and suddenly Sully has become a key name on Babycenter.
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Si, dintr-o data, Sully a devenit un nume important pe Babycenter.
09:44
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
09:45
So, from a value and values standpoint,
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Deci, din punctul de vedere al valorii si valorilor,
09:47
what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.
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ce pot face companiile este sa se conecteze in diferite feluri.
09:50
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
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Microsoft face ceva minunat.
09:52
They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with I.T. training,
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S-au angajat sa re-instruiasca in IT 2 milioane de americani:
09:56
using their existing infrastructure to do something good.
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folosind infrastructura existenta sa faca ceva bun.
09:59
Also a really interesting company is Gore-Tex.
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O alta compatie interesanta este Gore-Tex.
10:02
Gore-Tex is all about personal accountability
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In Gore-Tex totul este despre responsabilitate personala
10:04
of their management and their employees,
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a managementului si angajatilor,
10:06
to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.
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pana in punctul in care evita ideea de sefi.
10:10
But they also talk about the fact that
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Dar ei, de asemenea, vorbesc despre faptul ca
10:12
their executives, all of their expense reports
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executivii lor, toate rapoartele lor de cheltuieli,
10:14
are put onto their company intranet for everyone to see.
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sunt puse in reteaua intranet a companiei pentru ca oricine sa le poata vedea.
10:17
Complete transparency.
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Transparenta completa.
10:19
Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.
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Gandeste-te de doua ori inainte de a bea o sticla de vin.
10:22
The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism
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A treia din cele patru legi ale consumerismului post-criza
10:25
is about durable living.
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este despre un stil de viata durabil.
10:27
We're seeing on our data that consumers are realizing
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Vedem in datele noastre ca consumatorii realizeaza
10:29
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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ca este un maraton, nu o cursa de viteza.
10:31
They are digging in. And they're looking for ways to extract value
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Ei fac sapaturi. Si cauta moduri de a extrage valori
10:33
out of every purchase that they make.
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din fiecare achizitie pe care o fac.
10:36
Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars
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Dovada sta faptul ca americanii isi pastreaza masinile
10:38
longer than ever before,
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mai mult decat pana acum
10:40
9.4 years on average, in March. A record.
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9,4 ani, in medie, in martie. Un record.
10:44
We also see the fact that libraries have become
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De asemenea, vedem ca bibliotecile au devenit
10:46
a huge resource for America.
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o resursa uriasa pentru America.
10:48
Did you know that 68 percent of Americans
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Stiati ca 68% din americani
10:50
now carry a library card?
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au acum un permis de intrare la biblioteca?
10:52
The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.
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Cel mai mare procent in istoria natiunii noastre.
10:54
So what you see in this trend is also
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Deci ceea ce vedeti in acest trend este si
10:56
the accumulation of knowledge.
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acumularea de cunostinte.
10:58
Continuing education is up.
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Educatia continua este in crestere.
11:00
Everything is focused on betterment, and training,
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Totul este concentrat pe imbunatatire si instruire.
11:02
and development and moving forward.
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si dezvoltare si inaintare.
11:04
We also see a big DIY movement.
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De asemenea, vedem o mare miscare DIY. (Do-It-Yourself = fa-o singur)
11:07
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent
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Am fost fascinat sa aflu ca 30%
11:10
of all homes in America are actually built by owners.
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din toate locuintele din America sunt, de fapt, construite de proprietari.
11:13
That includes cottages and the like. But 30 percent.
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Asta include casute de vacanta si asemanatoare. Dar este 30%.
11:16
So, people are getting their hands dirty. They are rolling up their sleeves.
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Deci oamenii isi murdaresc mainile. Isi sufleca manecile.
11:18
They want these skills.
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Isi doresc aceste calificari.
11:20
We see that with the phenomenon of raising backyard
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Vedem asta in fenomenul cresterii in curte
11:22
hens and chickens and ducks. And when you work out the math,
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a gainilor si ratelor. Si cand faceti socotelilele,
11:25
they say it doesn't work, but the principle is there
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se spune ca nu renteaza, dar principiul este acolo
11:27
that it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.
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este vorba despre sustenabilitate si a avea grija de tine.
11:31
And then we look at the High Line in New York City,
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Si apoi ne uitam la High Line in New York,
11:33
an excellent use of reimagining
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o excelenta folosire a regandirii
11:35
existing infrastructure for something good, which is
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infrastructurii existente pentru ceva bun, adica
11:37
a brand new park in New York City.
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un parc nou-nout in New York.
11:39
So, what brands can do, and companies,
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Deci, ceea ce brandurile pot face, la fel si companiile,
11:41
is pay dividends to consumers,
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este sa plateasca dividende consumatorilor,
11:43
be a brand that lasts,
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sa fie branduri care dureaza,
11:45
offer transparency, promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.
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sa ofere transparenta, sa-ti promita ca vei exista dincolo de vanzarile de azi.
11:48
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
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Un exemplu perfect este Patagonia.
11:51
Patagonia's Footprint Chronicles basically
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Patagonia's Footprint Chronicles in principiu
11:53
goes through and tracks every product that they make,
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tine evidenta fiecarui produs pe care-l fabrica,
11:56
and gives you social responsibility,
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si va ofera responsabilitate sociala,
11:58
and helps you understand the ethics
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si va ajuta sa intelegeti etica
12:00
that are behind the product that they make.
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ce sta in spatele fiecarui produs fabricat.
12:02
Another great example is Fidelity.
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Alt mare exemplu este Fidelity.
12:04
Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,
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In loc de recompense imediate in bani pentru cumparaturile pe credit sau debit,
12:07
this is about 529 rewards
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este vorba de 529 recompense
12:09
for your student education.
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pentru educatia universitara.
12:12
Or the interesting company SunRun.
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Sau interesanta companie SunRun.
12:14
I love this company. They've created a consumer collective
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Iubesc aceasta companie. Ei au creat o cooperativa de consumatori
12:17
where they put solar panels on households
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care pun panouri solare pe casele lor
12:20
and create a consumer-based utility,
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si au creat utilitati bazate pe consumator
12:22
where the electricity that they generate is basically
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unde electricitatea generata este
12:24
pumped back out into the marketplace.
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pompata inapoi in piata de energie.
12:26
So, it's a consumer driven co-op.
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Deci, este o cooperativa condusa de consumatori.
12:28
So, the fourth sort of post-crisis consumerism that we see
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Asa ca, al patrulea fel de consum post criza identificat
12:31
is this movement about return to the fold.
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este intoarcerea catre comunitate, oameni.
12:34
It's incredibly important right now.
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Este incredibil de important in acest moment.
12:36
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
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Increderea nu este parcelata, asa cum stim cu totii.
12:39
It's now about connecting to your communities,
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Acum este vorba despre conectarea la comunitatile voastre,
12:41
connecting to your social networks.
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despre conectarea la retelele voastre sociale.
12:43
In my book I talked about the fact that 72 percent
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In cartea mea am vorbit despre faptul ca 72%
12:45
of people trust what other people say
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din oameni au incredere in ce spun alti oameni
12:47
about a brand or a company, versus 15 percent on advertising.
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despre un brand sau o companie, in comparatie cu 15% - increderea in reclame.
12:50
So, in that respect,
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Deci, in aceasta privinta,
12:52
cooperative consumerism has really taken off.
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consumerismul colectiv si-a luat cu adevarat zborul.
12:54
This is about consumers working together
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Este vorba despre consumatori lucrand impreuna
12:56
to get what they want out of the marketplace.
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sa obtina ceea ce vor din piata.
12:58
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
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Sa ne uitam la cateva exemple rapide.
13:00
The artisanal movement is huge.
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Miscarea artizanala este imensa.
13:02
Everything about locally derived products and services,
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Toate produsele si serviciile locale,
13:05
supporting your local neighborhoods,
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in sprijinul comunitatilor locale,
13:07
whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.
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indiferent ca e vorba de branzeturi, vinuri sau alte produse.
13:10
Also this rise of local currencies.
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De asemenea, cresterea valutelor locale.
13:13
Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,
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Realizand ca este dificil de obtinut imprumuturi in aceste imprejurari,
13:15
you're doing business with people you trust,
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faceti afaceri doar cu oameni in care aveti incredere,
13:17
in your local markets.
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in pietele locale.
13:19
So, this rise of this sort of local currency
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Deci, aceasta crestere a acestui fel de valute locale
13:21
is another really interesting phenomenon.
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este un alt fenomen interesant.
13:23
And then they did a recent report
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Apoi au intocmit acest raport recent
13:25
I thought was fascinating.
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eu am fost fascinat.
13:27
They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,
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Au inceput, in anumite comunitati din USA,
13:29
start to publish people's electricity usage.
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sa publice consumul de electricitate al oamenilor.
13:32
And what they found out is when that was available for public record,
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Si ceea ce au descoperit este ca atunci cand acest consum a fost facut public,
13:35
the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.
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consumul de electricitate al comunitatilor a scazut.
13:39
Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,
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Apoi ne uitam la ideea de adunare a vacilor,
13:42
which is the whole phenomenon of consumers
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care reprezinta fenomenul consumatorilor
13:44
organizing together
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care se organizeaza impreuna
13:46
to buy meat from organic farms
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ca sa cumpere carne din ferme organice
13:48
that they know is safe and controlled in the way that they want it to be controlled.
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despre care stiu ca sunt sigure si controlate in felul in care voiau ei sa fie controlate.
13:52
And then there is this other really interesting movement
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Si mai exista alta interesanta tendinta
13:54
that's happened in California, which is about carrot mobs.
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care a aparut in California, care este despre "mafia morcovilor".
13:57
The traditional thing would be to boycott right?
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Reactia traditionala ar fi boicotul, corect?
13:59
Have a stick? Well why not have a carrot?
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Sa arati un bat? De ce sa nu arati un morcov?
14:01
So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources
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Deci acestia sunt consumatorii care se organizeaza, adunandu-si resursele,
14:05
to incentify companies to do good.
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sa stimuleze companiile sa faca bine.
14:08
And then we look at what companies can do.
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Si apoi ne uitam la ce pot face companiile.
14:11
This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.
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Aceasta este toata oportunitea in calitatea de organizator de comunitati.
14:14
You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.
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Trebuie sa realizezi ca nu poti lupta sau controla asta.
14:17
You actually need to organize it.
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De fapt e nevoie sa o organizezi.
14:19
You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.
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Trebuie sa o pui in valoare. Trebuie sa-i dati o semnificatie.
14:21
And there is lots of really interesting examples here
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Sunt o multime de exemple interesante
14:23
that we see.
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pe care le vedem.
14:25
First is just the rise of the fact that
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Primul este faptul ca
14:27
Zagat's has actually moved out of
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compania Zagat s-a indepartat
14:29
and diversified from rating restaurants,
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si diversificat, de la clasificarea restaurantelor,
14:32
into actually rating healthcare.
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la clasificarea serviciilor de sanatate.
14:34
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
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Deci ce certificari are Zagat?
14:36
Well, they have a lot, because it's their network of people. Right?
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Ei bine, multe. Pentru ca este reteaua lor de oameni. Corect?
14:39
So that becomes a very powerful force for them
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Deci asta devine o forta puternica pentru ei
14:41
to make their brand more elastic.
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sa-si faca brandul mai elastic.
14:44
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
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Apoi va uitati la fenomenul Kogi.
14:47
This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck. Right?
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Acest Kogi nu exista. Este un camion in miscare. Corect?
14:50
It's a moving truck through L.A., and the only way you can find it
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Este un camion in miscare prin Los Angeles. Si singurul fel in care-l poti descoperi
14:52
is through Twitter.
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este prin intermediul Twitter.
14:54
Or you look at Johnson & Johnson's Momversations.
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Sau daca va uitati la Johnson & Johnson's Momversations.
14:59
A phenomenal blog that's been built up.
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Un blog fenomenal care a fost construit.
15:01
Where J&J basically is tapping into
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In care J&J foloseste
15:03
the power of mommy bloggers,
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puterea bloggeritelor mamici,
15:05
allowing them to basically create a forum
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permitandu-le sa creeze un forum
15:08
where they can communicate and they can connect.
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unde pot comunica si se pot conecta.
15:10
And it's also become a very, very valuable
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Si asta a devenit un foarte, foarte valoros
15:12
sort of advertising revenue for J&J as well.
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fel de venit din reclama pentru J&J.
15:15
This plus the fact that you've got
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Asta plus faptul ca aveti
15:17
phenomenal work from CEOs
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o munca extraordinara din partea CEO
15:19
from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,
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de la Ford la Zappos, conectati prin Twitter
15:21
creating an open environment,
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creand un mediu deschis,
15:23
allowing their employees to be part of the process,
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permitand angajatilor sa fie o parte a procesului,
15:26
rather than hidden behind walls.
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decat sa se ascunda in spatele zidurilor.
15:28
You see this rising force in sort of
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Vedeti in aceasta forta in ascensiune un fel de
15:30
total transparency and openness that companies are starting to adopt,
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transparenta si deschidere totala pe care companiile au inceput sa o adopte.
15:33
all because the consumer is demanding it.
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Totul pentru ca consumatorul o cere.
15:36
So, when we look at this and we step back,
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Asa ca, atunci cand ne uitam la asta si ne dam putin inapoi,
15:38
what I believe is that the crisis that exists today
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ce cred eu este ca criza care exista astazi
15:40
is definitely real.
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este in totalitate reala.
15:42
It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.
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A fost coplesitor de puternica pentru consumatori.
15:45
But, at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.
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Dar in acelasi timp, asta a fost o oportunitate impresionanta.
15:48
And the Chinese character for crisis
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Si caracterul chinez pentru criza
15:50
is actually the same side of the same coin.
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este de fapt aceeasi fata a aceleiasi monezi.
15:53
Crisis equals opportunity.
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Criza inseamna oportunitate.
15:55
What we're seeing with consumers right now
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Ceea ce vedem la consumatorii de azi
15:57
is the ability for them to actually
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este abilitatea lor
15:59
lead us forward out of this recession.
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sa ne scoata din aceasta recesiune.
16:01
So, we believe that values-driven spending
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Asa ca, noi credem ca consumul condus de valori
16:03
will force capitalism to be better.
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va forta capitalismul sa fie mai bun.
16:06
It will drive innovation.
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Va conduce inovarea.
16:08
It will make longer-lasting products. It will
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Va face produse mai durabile. Va crea
16:10
create better, more intuitive customer service.
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servicii mai bune si mai intuitive pentru consumator.
16:12
It will give us the opportunity to connect with companies
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Ne va da oportunitatea sa ne conectam cu companiile
16:15
that share the values that we share.
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care impartasesc aceleasi valori ca si noi.
16:17
So, when we look back and step out at this
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Asa ca, atunci cand ne dam inapoi si ne uitam la asta
16:19
and see the beginning of these trends
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si vedem inceputul acestor tendinte
16:21
that we're seeing in our data,
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pe care le vedem in informatiile noastre
16:23
we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.
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vedem un foarte promitator tablou al viitorului Americii.
16:25
Thank you very much.
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Va multumesc foarte mult.
16:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
John Gerzema - Marketing whizJohn Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising.
Why you should listen
John Gerzema has spent his career creating and guiding the brand strategies of many of our household names: McDonald's, BMW, Coca-Cola, United Airlines, Holiday Inn and more. Today, as Chief Insights Officer for marketing giant Young & Rubicam, he combines his expertise with the information reaped from Y&R's Brand Asset Valuator (an enormous database of brands) to understand and anticipate change in the intricate world of commerce.
Gerzema is co-author of The Brand Bubble, a new book that advocates change as the best strategy for brand management in today's market. This is not his first avant-garde move either -- he was one of the early adopters of account planning in American advertising, a method that places the consumer front and center in the branding process. After speaking at TEDxKC, Gerzema penned a second book called Spend Shift based on the premises of his talk on the changing habits of the post-crisis consumer.
John Gerzema | Speaker | TED.com