TEDxKC
John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer
John Gerzema:危机后的消费者
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John Gerzema认为最近发生的金融危机也有其有利的一面，即金融危机也为我们带来了向好的方面转变的机遇。John Gerzema阐述了四个文化方面的转变，这些转变促使消费者的行为也发生了变化；他还向我们展示了商业是如何与理性的消费联系在一起的。
John Gerzema - Marketing whiz
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
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13万亿的财富
00:18
has evaporated over the course of the last two years.
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在过去的两年间里蒸发殆尽。
00:21
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
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我们质疑过资本主义的未来。
00:23
We've questioned the financial industry.
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我们也对金融业产生过怀疑。
00:26
We've looked at our government oversight.
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我们检视我们的政府的疏忽。
00:28
We've questioned where we're going.
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我们对未来的方向感到迷茫。
00:30
And yet, at the same time, this very well may be
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然而，与此同时，危机的到来不仅仅意味着
00:32
a seminal moment in American history,
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美国正处在历史上的关键时刻，
00:34
an opportunity for the consumer
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对消费者而言，更是一种机遇。
00:36
to actually take control and guide us
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他们能够真正的掌握主动权，
00:38
to a new trajectory in America.
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并且带领我们进入一个新的发展轨道。
00:40
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
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我们把它称之为一场“大松绑“。
00:43
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
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其实这本身是一个非常简单的理念，
00:46
which is the fact that the consumer
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它描述了这样一个事实，
00:48
has moved from a state of anxiety to action.
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即消费者正从过去焦虑不安的状态向付诸行动逐渐发生转变。
00:51
Consumers who represent 72 percent
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占美国国内生产总值72%的消费群体
00:54
of the GDP of America have actually started,
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事实上已经开始行动了，
00:57
just like banks and just like businesses,
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正如银行和企业
00:59
to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage,
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所采取的一系列“去杠杆化”措施，
01:02
in daily life, to remove themselves
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在日常生活中，消费者们
01:04
from the liability and risk
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让自己从负债和风险中解脱出来，
01:06
that presents itself as we move forward.
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继续前行。
01:09
So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --
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因此，为了便于理解，我想要强调，
01:11
it's not about the consumer being in retreat.
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消费者们并没有退缩，
01:13
The consumer is empowered.
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他们被赋予了权力。
01:15
In order to understand this, we're going to step back and look
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为了更清楚的阐明我的观点，让我们往回走
01:17
a little bit at what's happened over the course of the last year and a half.
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看看过去的一年半时间里发生了什么。
01:20
So, if you've been gone, this is the easy CliffsNotes
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如果你也同样经历了这一切的话，
01:22
on what's happened in the economy. Okay?
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我下面将要讲述的便是最简单的摘要。可以吗？
01:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:25
Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.
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失业率~上升，房产价格~下降，资本市场~猛跌
01:28
Commodity prices are like this.
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商品价格这样变化。
01:30
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
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如果你是你个负责预算的母亲，
01:32
and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,
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去年夏天的汽油价格是每桶150美元，
01:35
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
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而现在则是介于50到70美元之间，
01:37
do you plan vacations? How do you buy?
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你还打算去度假吗？你会怎样买？
01:39
What is your strategy in your household?
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你的家庭策略是什么？
01:41
Will the bailout work? We have national debt, Detroit,
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政府援助会起作用吗？我们面临的问题有国债，底特律，
01:43
currency valuations, healthcare, all these issues facing us.
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货币估价，医疗保健等等。
01:46
You put them all together, you mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
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你把他们放在一起，混合成一碗法式鱼肉汤。
01:49
and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time-bomb.
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另外，你还拥有消费者信心，而它基本就是一个滴答作响的定时炸弹。
01:53
In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,
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其实我们应该回头看看是什么导致了这场危机；
01:56
because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,
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因为，在日常生活中，所有消费者
01:58
actually contributed a large part to the problem.
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实际上都极大程度上促成了这一问题的产生。
02:01
This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.
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这就是我称之为 50/20悖论 的东西。
02:03
It took us 50 years
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我们花费了50年
02:06
to reach annual savings ratings
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来达到年储蓄率接近10%的水平。
02:08
of almost 10 percent. 50 years.
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50年。
02:11
Do you know what this was right here?
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你知道这个地方是啥时候吗？
02:13
This was World War II. Do you know why savings was so high?
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这儿是二战期间。你知道为什么储蓄如此高吗？
02:16
There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets. Right?
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因为没有任何东西可以买，除非你想买铆钉。对吗？
02:19
So, what happened though, over the course of the last 20 years --
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那么，过去20年发生了什么
02:22
we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.
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使得储蓄率从10%下降到负值？
02:26
Because we binged. We bought extra-large cars,
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因为我们大肆享受：我们买超大的汽车，
02:31
supersized everything, we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.
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一切超大型的东西；我们似乎得了坐立不安综合症并为之买单。
02:35
All these things together basically created
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所有这些加一起，大体上就是
02:37
a factor where the consumer sort of drove us
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导致消费者进入危机的原因，
02:40
headlong into the crisis that we face today.
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我们如此仓促，手足无措。
02:42
The personal debt-to-income ratio
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在过去大概15年的区间内，
02:45
basically went from 65 percent
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个人负债与收入比率
02:47
to 135 percent in the span of about 15 years.
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大体上从65%增长到135%。
02:51
So consumers got overleveraged.
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于是消费者们过度杠杆化了，
02:54
And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.
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当然我们的银行和联邦政府也是如此。
02:57
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
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这是一副十足惊人的图表，
02:59
It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.
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它展示了从1919到2009年间杠杆的变化趋势。
03:03
And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon
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你在最后面看到的是一整个现象，
03:06
of the fact that we are actually
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那就是，我们实际上在举债，
03:08
stepping forth and basically leveraging
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我们在提前透支
03:10
future education, future children in our households.
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未来教育及未来孩子们的花费。
03:13
So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,
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如果你在政府救援背景下想想这个问题，
03:16
what you can see is if you stack up dollar bills,
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你将看到的是，如果一个人堆积美元钞票，
03:19
first of all, 360,000 dollars
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首先是360,000美元
03:21
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
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-大致相当于一个5.4英寸人的高度
03:24
But if you stack it up, you just see this amazing, staggering amount of
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但是，如果将钱堆积起来，你看到的仅仅是
03:27
dollars that have been put into the system
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数量惊人的美元被投入（金融）系统
03:29
to fund and bail us out.
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以资助和援救我们。
03:31
So this is the first 315 billion.
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这就是最初的3150亿美元。
03:33
But I read this fact the other day, that one trillion seconds
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前不久，我看到这样一个事实：
03:36
equals 32 thousand years,
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一万亿秒相当于32000年。
03:38
so if you think about that, the context, the casualness
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你想想这种情形：
03:40
with which we talk about trillion-dollar bailout here, and trillion there,
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我们在多么轻松地谈论金钱，这儿一万亿，那儿一万亿。
03:44
we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.
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我们在堆积一个长期的杠杆。
03:47
However, consumers have moved.
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但是，消费者开始行动了，
03:50
They are taking responsibility.
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他们在承担责任。
03:52
What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.
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我们开到储蓄率在提高
03:55
In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened
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事实上，自从危机发生以来
03:57
since the beginning of the crisis.
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已经有连续11个月的储蓄。
03:59
We are working our way back up to that 10 percent.
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我们正朝着恢复储蓄率到10%的方向前进。
04:01
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
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另外值得注意的是
04:03
spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years,
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第四季度的花费降到62年来的最低点，
04:07
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
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几乎下降了3.7%。
04:10
Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards
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维萨公司（Visa）报告说，相比信用卡而言
04:12
than they're using credit cards.
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更多的人在使用借记卡。
04:14
So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.
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我们开始用手头的钱买东西，
04:17
And we're starting to be much more careful
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我们开始谨小慎微地对待，
04:19
about how we save and how we invest.
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存款和投资。
04:21
But that's not really the whole story.
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但那并不是整个故事，
04:23
Because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.
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因为这种转变所花的时间也是相当长的，
04:26
And you've got to admit, over the course of the last year and a half,
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你不得不承认，在过去一年半中
04:28
consumers have been doing some pretty weird things.
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消费者们做了些十分奇怪的事情，
04:30
It's been pretty staggering, what we've lived through.
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我们所经历的真的很奇怪。
04:33
If you take into account 80 percent of all Americans
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如果大家考虑到
04:35
were born after World War II,
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80%的美国人出生在二战以后，
04:37
this is essentially our Depression.
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这就绝对是属于我们的大萧条。
04:39
And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.
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同时，一些疯狂的事情发生了。
04:42
I'll give you some examples. Lets talk about dentists,
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我会给大家举些例子，比如牙医，
04:44
vasectomies, guns and shark attacks. Okay?
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输精管切除书术，枪支和鲨鱼攻击。好吗？
04:48
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:50
Dentists report molars,
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牙医报告说人们有磨牙。
04:52
you know, people grinding their teeth, coming in
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磨牙的人去见牙医，
04:54
and reporting the fact that they've had stress.
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说他们感到有压力。
04:56
And so there is an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.
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于是，越来越多的人不得不替换他们补牙所用的材料。
04:59
Guns, gun sales, according to the FBI,
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负责检查背景的联邦调查局说
05:01
who does background checks, are up almost 25 percent since January.
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七月份以来，持枪数和枪支销售上涨了几乎25%。
05:06
Vasectomies are up 48 percent,
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又据康奈尔研究院
05:08
according to the Cornell institute.
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输精管切除手术增多了48%。
05:10
And lastly, but a very good point,
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最后，很好的一点
05:13
hopefully not related to the former point I just made,
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希望和我们前面提到的一点没关系♫
05:15
which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.
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那就是，鲨鱼袭人事件也处于2003年以来的最低水平。
05:18
Does anybody know why?
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有人知道原因吗？
05:22
No one is at the beach. So there is a bright side to everything.
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没有人去海滩。所以任何事物都有光明的一面。
05:25
But seriously, what we see happening,
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不过严肃点说，正在发生的事情
05:27
and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,
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以及我想强调消费者并未撤退的原因是：
05:30
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
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这对消费者而言是一个巨大的机遇。
05:32
for the consumer who drove us into this recession
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消费者将我们带入衰退，
05:35
to lead us right back out.
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但也能借此机遇引导我们走出衰退。
05:37
And what I mean by that is that we can move from mindless consumption
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我的意思是，我们可以从不假思索的消费
05:40
to mindful consumption. Right?
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变为深思熟虑的消费。对吗？
05:43
If you think about the last three decades,
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如果你想想过去30年，
05:46
the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
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消费者从90年代的信奉市场知识
05:50
to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade,
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变化到近十年的收集各种社会工具和搜索工具。
05:54
but the one thing that has been holding them back is the ability to discriminate.
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但是，有一样东西阻挡了他们的前进，那就是判断能力。
05:57
By restricting their demand, consumers can actually
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消费者因限制了自己的需求，
05:59
align their values with their spending,
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而能让他们的价值取向与消费相结合
06:02
and drive capitalism and business
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并驱动资产主义和商业
06:04
to not just be about more, but be about better.
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到不只更多而是更好的境界。
06:06
We're going to explain that right now.
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接下来我会解释这一点。
06:09
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
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根据Y&R的品牌资产评估机构，
06:11
proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,
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VML 和 Young & Rubicam的专有工具，
06:14
we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis
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我们开始了解到金融危机
06:16
with the consumer marketplace.
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在消费者市场引发的事情。
06:19
We found a couple of really interesting things.
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我们发现了一些相当有趣的事情。
06:21
We're going to go through four value-shifts that we see
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我们研究了4种价值转变，
06:24
driving new consumer behaviors,
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这些变化引导我们找到新的消费者行为，
06:26
that offer new management principles.
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也提供了新的管理法则。
06:28
The first cultural value shift that we see is this tendency
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第一个文化价值转变是，
06:30
toward something we call liquid life.
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生活有种转向所谓液态生活的趋势。
06:32
This is the movement from Americans defining their success
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美国人对成功的定义由资产的多寡
06:35
on having things to having liquidity,
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变为是否拥有液态生活。
06:38
because the less excess that you have around you,
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因为，一个人周围的过度行为越少，
06:40
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
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他的行动速度会越发灵敏。
06:43
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
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低调消费也因此流行，
06:45
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money
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低调消费是指盲目的消费
06:48
frivolously makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
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似乎与流行趋势不相符。
06:52
The management principle is dollars and cents.
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这个管理法则是金钱，
06:54
So let's look at some examples of this déclassé
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那么,先来看看一些低调消费
06:56
consumption that falls out of this value.
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脱离价值的例子。
06:59
First things is we see something must be happening when
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第一件事是，P. Diddy（吹牛老爹）宣称不再穿戴华丽闪亮的服装时，
07:01
P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
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一定有什么事发生了。
07:03
(Laughter)
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（xiaosheng）
07:04
But seriously, we also have this phenomenon
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但是严格地说
07:06
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
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这种现象也发生麦迪逊大街和别的地方，
07:08
where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques
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人们走在奢侈精品街上，
07:11
with ordinary, sort of generic
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手里拿着普通无名的纸袋，
07:13
paper bags to hide the brand purchases.
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里面却放着各种名牌物品。
07:15
We see high-end haggling in fashion today.
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今天我们看到上流社会的高价议价，
07:18
High-end haggling for luxury and real estate.
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豪宅和不动产的高价议价。
07:21
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
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我们也只看到一个放松的自我
07:23
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
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以及拆穿各种诡计。
07:25
This is a story on the yacht club
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这个故事发生在游艇俱乐部，
07:27
that's all basically blue collar.
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它的成员基本上都是蓝领阶层，
07:29
Blue-collar yacht club, where you can join the yacht club,
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是的，蓝领游艇俱乐部,你可以参加这个俱乐部，
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but you've got to work in the boat yard,
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但成为会员的条件是
07:33
as sort of condition of membership.
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你必须在船坞上工作。
07:35
We also see the trend toward
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我们也看到未来趋势朝向
07:37
tourism that's a little bit more low key. Right?
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低调旅游发展,对吧?
07:40
Agritourism, going to vineyards and going to farms.
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农业旅游，人们走入葡萄园和农田。
07:43
And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.
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然后，我们也看到价值观已不再但是关于金钱。
07:46
What businesses can do to connect
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企业能联系这些新观念去做什么
07:48
with these new mindsets is really interesting.
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是相当有趣的。
07:50
A couple things that are kind of cool.
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有些事儿非常酷，
07:52
One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing
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其一是，Frito-Lay（知名食品公司）查觉了
07:54
with their consumer.
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他们顾客的流动性。
07:56
They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,
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他们发现消费者在月初有较多的钱，
07:58
less at the end of the month. So what they did
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而月底则较少,因此他们所做的
08:00
is they started to change their packaging.
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就是开始改变他们的包装。
08:02
Larger packs at the beginning of the month, smaller packaging
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月初销售的包装比较大,
08:04
at the end of the month.
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月底产品的包装比较小。
08:06
Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.
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同样有趣的是，旧金山巨人队（San Francisco Giants职业棒球队）
08:09
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
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他们采用了动态定价，
08:12
So it takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,
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因此,在制定票价时，他们将各种因素考虑进来，
08:14
to the weather, to the team records,
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从投手配合到天气
08:17
in setting prices for the consumer.
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再到球队纪录。
08:19
Another quick example of these types of movements is
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另一个的例子就是Zynga（开发"开心农场"的游戏厂商）
08:22
the rise of Zynga.
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的快速崛起。
08:24
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
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Zynga的崛起基于消费者
08:26
to not want to be locked in to fixed-cost.
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不愿定期支付固定成本的欲望。
08:29
Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.
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再一次，主题是变动成本和变动生活。
08:31
So micropayments have become huge.
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因此,小额支付也变成巨大的负担，
08:33
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
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最后,一些人使用Hulu（免费网络电视）
08:36
actually as a device to get rid of their cable bill.
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实际上把它当作逃避有线电视账单的设备。
08:38
So, really clever ideas there
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因此,真正聪明的想法
08:40
that are kind of being taken ahold and marketers are starting to understand.
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似乎开始被市场采用,而商人们也开始能理解。
08:43
The second of the four values
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第二个价值观是
08:45
is this movement toward ethics and fair play.
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趋向重视道德及公平竞争。
08:48
We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.
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我们透过道德和尊重监视竞争。
08:51
The consumer is demanding it.
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消费者需要这样，
08:53
And, as a result, businesses must provide
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也因此,企业不只要提供
08:55
not only value, but values.
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价值更须提供价值观。
08:57
Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,
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渐渐地，在市场中寻找产品时，
08:59
looking for their conduct in the marketplace.
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消费者开始留意公司文化。
09:02
So, what we see with empathy and respect, lots of really hopeful things
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因此,我们透过道德与尊重所看到的,很多真实有希望的东西
09:04
that have come out of this recession.
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已经从经济衰退中走出来。
09:06
And I'll give you a few examples.
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下面是一些例子“
09:08
One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,
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一个是社区和街坊的崛起
09:10
and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.
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和人们更强调邻居是后备支持系统。
09:14
Also a wonderful byproduct of sort of a really lousy thing,
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此外,在失业清况如此严重的情形下,
09:18
which has been unemployment, is a rise in
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一个很好的副产品产生了，
09:20
volunteerism that's been noted in our country.
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那就是更多人投身历来为美国所重视的志愿工作。
09:22
We also see the phenomenon --
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我们也看到这样的一个现象-
09:24
some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
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你们中的一些可能有”赖家孩子” （boomerang kids）
09:26
these are "boomerang alumni,"
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这些也是返校校友，
09:28
where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni
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大学实际上会会再联系毕业校友，
09:30
in helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.
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以帮助在校生们找工作,分享技能及进行在职训练。
09:34
We also talked about character and professionalism.
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我们也谈论到人格和专业特质，
09:36
We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City, you know, in January,
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今年一月时，纽约的Hudson发生了这样的奇迹
09:40
and suddenly Sully has become a key name on Babycenter.
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突然间Sully这个名字在婴儿中心变得很重要 （sully，玷污名声）
09:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:45
So, from a value and values standpoint,
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那么,从价值及价值观的角度来看，
09:47
what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.
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公司能做的是通过各种方式联系消费者。
09:50
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
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微软做了一些很棒的事，
09:52
They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with I.T. training,
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他们宣步将对2百万美国人做信息在职训练，
09:56
using their existing infrastructure to do something good.
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使用既有的设备去做一些好事。
09:59
Also a really interesting company is Gore-Tex.
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另一个有趣的公司Gore-Tex
10:02
Gore-Tex is all about personal accountability
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Gore-Tex强调个人责任感，
10:04
of their management and their employees,
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无论是管理者还是员工。
10:06
to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.
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以至于他们几乎舍弃老板与下属的概念。
10:10
But they also talk about the fact that
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但他们也谈论到这样一个事实，
10:12
their executives, all of their expense reports
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他们的执行力和所有费用支出
10:14
are put onto their company intranet for everyone to see.
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都会放在公司内部网络供每个员工观看。
10:17
Complete transparency.
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完全透明化
10:19
Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.
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三思而后行
10:22
The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism
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后危机消费的第三个法则是
10:25
is about durable living.
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永续生存。
10:27
We're seeing on our data that consumers are realizing
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数据显示消费者意识到
10:29
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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这是一个马拉松而非短跑比赛。
10:31
They are digging in. And they're looking for ways to extract value
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他们开始认真,每一次购物
10:33
out of every purchase that they make.
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他们都有发掘出最大价值。
10:36
Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars
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注意这一事实：美国人持有他们汽车
10:38
longer than ever before,
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的时间比以前要长。
10:40
9.4 years on average, in March. A record.
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在今年三月创下历史纪录，平均9.4年
10:44
We also see the fact that libraries have become
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我们也看到图书馆已经变成
10:46
a huge resource for America.
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美国人一个巨大的信息源。
10:48
Did you know that 68 percent of Americans
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你知道现在有68%的美国人
10:50
now carry a library card?
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持有图书馆卡吗?
10:52
The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.
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在我们国家历史最高纪录。
10:54
So what you see in this trend is also
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因此,这种趋势也可看作
10:56
the accumulation of knowledge.
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知识的累积。
10:58
Continuing education is up.
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继续学习成为更多人的选择。
11:00
Everything is focused on betterment, and training,
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每件事都强调改善、训练
11:02
and development and moving forward.
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发展及进步。
11:04
We also see a big DIY movement.
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我们也看到明显的DIY趋势。
11:07
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent
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我很高兴了解到那些30%
11:10
of all homes in America are actually built by owners.
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自己动手建房的美国人，
11:13
That includes cottages and the like. But 30 percent.
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包括农舍小屋诸如此类的,达到30%
11:16
So, people are getting their hands dirty. They are rolling up their sleeves.
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这样，人们卷起柚子,弄脏双手，
11:18
They want these skills.
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学习这些技术。
11:20
We see that with the phenomenon of raising backyard
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我们看到他们在后院饲养
11:22
hens and chickens and ducks. And when you work out the math,
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母鸡、小鸡和鸭子,当你计算经济成本时，
11:25
they say it doesn't work, but the principle is there
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他们回答那不重要,重点是原则，
11:27
that it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.
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原则就是关于持续发展和自给自足。
11:31
And then we look at the High Line in New York City,
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我们再看看纽约市的High Line长廊式公园
11:33
an excellent use of reimagining
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一个很棒的再利用废弃设施
11:35
existing infrastructure for something good, which is
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的案例。这也为
11:37
a brand new park in New York City.
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纽约市构建了一个崭新的公园。
11:39
So, what brands can do, and companies,
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因此,品牌和公司能做的是
11:41
is pay dividends to consumers,
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分红给消费者。
11:43
be a brand that lasts,
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做一个长期品牌，
11:45
offer transparency, promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.
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提供透明度,承诺物超所值。
11:48
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
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最佳的例子是Patagonia
11:51
Patagonia's Footprint Chronicles basically
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Patagonia的环保足迹记事
11:53
goes through and tracks every product that they make,
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基本上追踪每件产品的生产流程，
11:56
and gives you social responsibility,
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以给予消费者社会责任
11:58
and helps you understand the ethics
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并帮助消费者了解每件产品背后的
12:00
that are behind the product that they make.
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社会伦理道德。
12:02
Another great example is Fidelity.
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另一个很棒的例子是富达证券 Fidelity
12:04
Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,
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他们并不依信用卡或现金卡消费回馈现金，
12:07
this is about 529 rewards
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而是提供529助学奖励金
12:09
for your student education.
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以作为学生教育补助。
12:12
Or the interesting company SunRun.
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或另一个有趣的公司SunRun
12:14
I love this company. They've created a consumer collective
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我喜欢这间公司,他们提供一个集合式产品，
12:17
where they put solar panels on households
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给家庭安置太阳能面板，
12:20
and create a consumer-based utility,
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并创造以消费者为主的公用事业。
12:22
where the electricity that they generate is basically
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他们再将产生的电力
12:24
pumped back out into the marketplace.
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卖给市场。
12:26
So, it's a consumer driven co-op.
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这就是消费者驱动的互助。
12:28
So, the fourth sort of post-crisis consumerism that we see
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因此，第四种金融危机后的消费主义
12:31
is this movement about return to the fold.
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是回归信任圈的趋势。
12:34
It's incredibly important right now.
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这点非常重要。
12:36
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
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我们都知道,信任无法被分配，
12:39
It's now about connecting to your communities,
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现在信任是关于连接你的小区、
12:41
connecting to your social networks.
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连接你的社会网络。
12:43
In my book I talked about the fact that 72 percent
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在我的书中谈论到，
12:45
of people trust what other people say
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72%的人相信其他人
12:47
about a brand or a company, versus 15 percent on advertising.
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对品牌和公司的介绍,只有15%的人相信广告。
12:50
So, in that respect,
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因此,从这个角度讲，
12:52
cooperative consumerism has really taken off.
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互助消费主义已经开始发展，
12:54
This is about consumers working together
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消费者一起合作
12:56
to get what they want out of the marketplace.
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去得到他们从市场无法得到的东西。
12:58
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
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先快速地看几个例子：
13:00
The artisanal movement is huge.
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手工运动的力量很强大。
13:02
Everything about locally derived products and services,
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那就是就近获得产品和服务
13:05
supporting your local neighborhoods,
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以支持本地社区，
13:07
whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.
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无论是奶酪、酒还是其他产品。
13:10
Also this rise of local currencies.
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因此本地货币也出现并发展。
13:13
Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,
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意识到在这种环境下很难获得融资，
13:15
you're doing business with people you trust,
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人们开始和那些信赖的人做生意，
13:17
in your local markets.
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在他们熟悉的地方性市场。
13:19
So, this rise of this sort of local currency
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因此,地区货币的流通
13:21
is another really interesting phenomenon.
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是另外有趣的现象。
13:23
And then they did a recent report
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然后他们做了一个报告，
13:25
I thought was fascinating.
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这个报告很吸引人。
13:27
They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,
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事实上，他们已经开始在美国的几个小区行动，
13:29
start to publish people's electricity usage.
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开始公布人们的电力使用。
13:32
And what they found out is when that was available for public record,
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他们发现人们见到使用数据后，
13:35
the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.
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这些社区的电力使用量降低。
13:39
Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,
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接下来,再看看合资买牛的构想，
13:42
which is the whole phenomenon of consumers
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这个现象完全是
13:44
organizing together
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消费者自己组织行动，
13:46
to buy meat from organic farms
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去那些他们知道安全可控的农场购买肉类；
13:48
that they know is safe and controlled in the way that they want it to be controlled.
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这样他们总能掌握相关的信息。
13:52
And then there is this other really interesting movement
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还有一个真正有趣的趋势
13:54
that's happened in California, which is about carrot mobs.
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发生在加洲,是有关于胡萝卜族的。
13:57
The traditional thing would be to boycott right?
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传统的方法是去联合抵制购买,对吧?
13:59
Have a stick? Well why not have a carrot?
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采用惩罚的方式?那为什么不用奖励的方式呢?
14:01
So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources
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这些胡萝卜族组织集中他们的资源
14:05
to incentify companies to do good.
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去鼓励商家去做好事。
14:08
And then we look at what companies can do.
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然后让我们来看看企业能做些什么。
14:11
This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.
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到处都有机会去成为社群组织者，
14:14
You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.
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你必须意识到你不能对抗和控制它。
14:17
You actually need to organize it.
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你实际上需要去组织它。
14:19
You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.
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你必须驾驭它,必须赋予它意义。
14:21
And there is lots of really interesting examples here
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这里有很多有趣的实际案例
14:23
that we see.
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可供我们参考。
14:25
First is just the rise of the fact that
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第一个是愈发明显的现象，
14:27
Zagat's has actually moved out of
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Zagat的业务实际上已（zagat网站，类似大众点评网）
14:29
and diversified from rating restaurants,
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不仅仅是从多角度评鉴美食餐馆，
14:32
into actually rating healthcare.
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他们也开始评价医疗保健。
14:34
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
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Zagat 到底有什么资质呢?
14:36
Well, they have a lot, because it's their network of people. Right?
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他们当然有很多.因为他们有很强的人脉网络.对吧?
14:39
So that becomes a very powerful force for them
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因此,这变成一股非常强大的力量
14:41
to make their brand more elastic.
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促使她们的品牌变得更有张力。
14:44
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
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再来看看Kogi现象
14:47
This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck. Right?
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这个Kogi并非固定,而是一个流动餐车,对吧?
14:50
It's a moving truck through L.A., and the only way you can find it
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它是一个穿梭在洛杉矶的快餐车,而唯一能找到它的方式
14:52
is through Twitter.
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就是通过Twitter。
14:54
Or you look at Johnson & Johnson's Momversations.
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又或者再看看强生集团的Momversations网站，
14:59
A phenomenal blog that's been built up.
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他们建立了一个感性的博客，
15:01
Where J&J basically is tapping into
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娇生集团借此利用
15:03
the power of mommy bloggers,
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每一个妈妈博主的力量。
15:05
allowing them to basically create a forum
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妈妈们可以去建立一个论坛，
15:08
where they can communicate and they can connect.
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在那里互相沟通和联系。
15:10
And it's also become a very, very valuable
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这俨然是一个非常,非常有效的
15:12
sort of advertising revenue for J&J as well.
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营销方式，对强生公司也是如此。
15:15
This plus the fact that you've got
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还有，
15:17
phenomenal work from CEOs
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借用Twitter的连接作用，你可以得到
15:19
from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,
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来自从福特汽车到Zappos的CEO们的优质工作。
15:21
creating an open environment,
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这样就创造了一个开放式的环境，
15:23
allowing their employees to be part of the process,
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允许员工参与整个过程
15:26
rather than hidden behind walls.
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而不是躲在幕后。
15:28
You see this rising force in sort of
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这股崛起的力量似乎也促使
15:30
total transparency and openness that companies are starting to adopt,
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公司开始尝试完全透明性和公开性。
15:33
all because the consumer is demanding it.
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因为消费者希望这样。
15:36
So, when we look at this and we step back,
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当我们看看这点，再退后一步看，
15:38
what I believe is that the crisis that exists today
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我相信今天发生的危机
15:40
is definitely real.
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是绝对真实的。
15:42
It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.
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它已经对消费者造成极大的冲击，
15:45
But, at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.
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但同时,这也是一个绝佳的机会。
15:48
And the Chinese character for crisis
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”危机“在汉语中
15:50
is actually the same side of the same coin.
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实际上指的是同一件事，
15:53
Crisis equals opportunity.
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危机就是转机。
15:55
What we're seeing with consumers right now
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我们当前所看到正是，
15:57
is the ability for them to actually
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消费者事实上有能力去
15:59
lead us forward out of this recession.
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引领我们走出这次经济衰退。
16:01
So, we believe that values-driven spending
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因此,我们相信价值驱动消费
16:03
will force capitalism to be better.
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会促使资本主义变得更好。
16:06
It will drive innovation.
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它将驱动创新。
16:08
It will make longer-lasting products. It will
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将创造更持久耐用的产品。
16:10
create better, more intuitive customer service.
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它将创造更好、更直观的消费者服务。
16:12
It will give us the opportunity to connect with companies
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它将给我们机会去连接公司
16:15
that share the values that we share.
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互相分享价值。
16:17
So, when we look back and step out at this
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因此,当我们往后看或跳出来
16:19
and see the beginning of these trends
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看看这些数据
16:21
that we're seeing in our data,
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所显示的趋势的开始。
16:23
we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.
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我们看到一个非常有希望的远景在美国的未来
16:25
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
16:27
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
John Gerzema - Marketing whizJohn Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising.
Why you should listen
John Gerzema has spent his career creating and guiding the brand strategies of many of our household names: McDonald's, BMW, Coca-Cola, United Airlines, Holiday Inn and more. Today, as Chief Insights Officer for marketing giant Young & Rubicam, he combines his expertise with the information reaped from Y&R's Brand Asset Valuator (an enormous database of brands) to understand and anticipate change in the intricate world of commerce.
Gerzema is co-author of The Brand Bubble, a new book that advocates change as the best strategy for brand management in today's market. This is not his first avant-garde move either -- he was one of the early adopters of account planning in American advertising, a method that places the consumer front and center in the branding process. After speaking at TEDxKC, Gerzema penned a second book called Spend Shift based on the premises of his talk on the changing habits of the post-crisis consumer.
John Gerzema | Speaker | TED.com