TEDxKC
John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer
John Gerzema:金融危機後的消費行為
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John Gerzema道出了這一波金融危機好的一面 -- 正面改變的機會，在TEDxKC的演講中，他定義了四個主要的文化轉變，引導出新的消費行為，並告訴企業如何與聰明的消費者互動。
John Gerzema - Marketing whiz
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
John Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
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13兆美元的財富，
00:18
has evaporated over the course of the last two years.
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在過去兩年裡從市場上蒸發，
00:21
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
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我們質疑資本主義的未來，
00:23
We've questioned the financial industry.
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我們質問這些金融產業，
00:26
We've looked at our government oversight.
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我們檢視政府的缺失，
00:28
We've questioned where we're going.
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我們對未來的方向充滿迷茫；
00:30
And yet, at the same time, this very well may be
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但同時，這也可能成為
00:32
a seminal moment in American history,
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美國史上一個重要的里程碑。
00:34
an opportunity for the consumer
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對消費者而言，這是一個機會，
00:36
to actually take control and guide us
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可以讓消費者去掌控並引導我們
00:38
to a new trajectory in America.
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走向一個新的軌道，
00:40
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
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我稱它為"大解放 "。
00:43
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
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這是一個很簡單的概念，
00:46
which is the fact that the consumer
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指的是消費者
00:48
has moved from a state of anxiety to action.
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將心中的焦慮實際付諸行動的現象。
00:51
Consumers who represent 72 percent
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佔美國國內生產總值
00:54
of the GDP of America have actually started,
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72%的消費者已經開始採取行動，
00:57
just like banks and just like businesses,
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就像那些銀行、企業
00:59
to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage,
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紛紛採取去槓桿化措施、解除財務槓桿的操作，
01:02
in daily life, to remove themselves
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消費者每天都在幫助自己
01:04
from the liability and risk
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從負債與風險中脫離出來，
01:06
that presents itself as we move forward.
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繼續往前進。
01:09
So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --
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因此，為了暸解這部份，接下來我將強調這點，
01:11
it's not about the consumer being in retreat.
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這並不是說消費者正從市場上撤退，
01:13
The consumer is empowered.
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而是他們的力量變強了。
01:15
In order to understand this, we're going to step back and look
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為了暸解這個，我們稍微後退一步看看，
01:17
a little bit at what's happened over the course of the last year and a half.
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在過去一年半裡究竟發生了什麼事，
01:20
So, if you've been gone, this is the easy CliffsNotes
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如果你已經經歷過金融危機，就把這當作是重點整理，
01:22
on what's happened in the economy. Okay?
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以便了解我們的經濟到底發生了什麼事情，好嗎?
01:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:25
Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.
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失業率上升、房價暴跌、股市一片慘淡、
01:28
Commodity prices are like this.
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商品價格也差不多如此，
01:30
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
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假設你是一個管理預算的媽媽，
01:32
and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,
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去年夏天油價一桶150美元，
01:35
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
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現在則差不多在50到70美元間上下震盪，
01:37
do you plan vacations? How do you buy?
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你還會計畫旅遊嗎?你會如何分配預算?
01:39
What is your strategy in your household?
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你的家庭策略規劃又是什麼?
01:41
Will the bailout work? We have national debt, Detroit,
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政府的緊急財政救援會見效嗎?美國國債、底特律失業問題、
01:43
currency valuations, healthcare, all these issues facing us.
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幣值、醫療保健等，所有的這些議題都不斷地衝擊著我們，
01:46
You put them all together, you mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
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如果把這些問題攪和在一起，
01:49
and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time-bomb.
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你將發現消費者信心會像個定時炸彈一樣。
01:53
In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,
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讓我們回顧看看是什麼造成這次的金融危機，
01:56
because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,
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每天，我們所有的消費者所做的行為，
01:58
actually contributed a large part to the problem.
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都要對這個問題負上很大的責任。
02:01
This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.
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我稱它為50-20矛盾法則，
02:03
It took us 50 years
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我們花了50年時間，
02:06
to reach annual savings ratings
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才達到接近10%的
02:08
of almost 10 percent. 50 years.
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年存款率。50年耶...
02:11
Do you know what this was right here?
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你們知道在這裡發生了什麼事嗎?
02:13
This was World War II. Do you know why savings was so high?
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這是第二次世界大戰。各位知道為什麼存款率這麼高嗎?
02:16
There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets. Right?
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因為沒有東西可以買，除非你想引起別人注意，對吧?
02:19
So, what happened though, over the course of the last 20 years --
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那麼,在過去20年裡,究竟發生了什麼事，
02:22
we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.
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讓我們的存款率從正10%變成負的存款率？
02:26
Because we binged. We bought extra-large cars,
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因為我們過於狂熱，我們買超大尺寸的車、
02:31
supersized everything, we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.
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購買過量或過大的東西、付錢醫治我們的「不寧腿症候群」，
02:35
All these things together basically created
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當所有的事情都湊在一起時，
02:37
a factor where the consumer sort of drove us
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多多少少造成了
02:40
headlong into the crisis that we face today.
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今日的金融危機。
02:42
The personal debt-to-income ratio
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個人的負債收入比
02:45
basically went from 65 percent
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在過去的15年期間，從原來的65%
02:47
to 135 percent in the span of about 15 years.
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攀升到現在的135%。
02:51
So consumers got overleveraged.
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消費者過度使用財務槓桿，
02:54
And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.
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當然銀行跟聯邦政府也是一樣。
02:57
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
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這是一張絕對會讓你吃驚的圖表，
02:59
It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.
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顯示財務槓桿從1919年到2009年的走向，
03:03
And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon
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最後你會看到一個特殊的現象，
03:06
of the fact that we are actually
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就是我們正在花未來的錢，
03:08
stepping forth and basically leveraging
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我們將財務槓桿拉到未來，
03:10
future education, future children in our households.
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我們已經花掉未來的教育經費及家裡小孩的花費。
03:13
So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,
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因此,如果你將整個財務救援政策具體化，
03:16
what you can see is if you stack up dollar bills,
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如果把這些錢堆起來，我們就會看到驚人的景象，
03:19
first of all, 360,000 dollars
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一開始先堆36萬美元，
03:21
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
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那大概是一個160公分高的人的高度；
03:24
But if you stack it up, you just see this amazing, staggering amount of
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但如果我們持續堆下去，你就會看到這些驚人、巨額的金錢
03:27
dollars that have been put into the system
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已經被放進這個系統，
03:29
to fund and bail us out.
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作為資助及財政救援的措施。
03:31
So this is the first 315 billion.
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這是第一筆3千150億美元。
03:33
But I read this fact the other day, that one trillion seconds
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但就在不久前的某一天, 我才發現，
03:36
equals 32 thousand years,
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一萬億秒等於3萬2千年。
03:38
so if you think about that, the context, the casualness
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因此如果你思考著整件事情的來龍去脈,
03:40
with which we talk about trillion-dollar bailout here, and trillion there,
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這些倉促決策的幾萬億的財政救援措施，
03:44
we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.
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正將我們自己推向長期的財務槓桿。
03:47
However, consumers have moved.
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然而,消費者已經改變了，
03:50
They are taking responsibility.
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他們正在學著負起責任，
03:52
What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.
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我們所看到的是存款率的上升，
03:55
In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened
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事實上,自從金融危機發生之後，
03:57
since the beginning of the crisis.
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存款已連續增加了11個月。
03:59
We are working our way back up to that 10 percent.
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我們正努力將存款率拉回10%，
04:01
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
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同時，在第四季可以很明顯地看到，
04:03
spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years,
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消費支出掉到62年來的最低點，
04:07
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
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減少約3.7%。
04:10
Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards
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近日Visa的報告指出，比起使用信用卡，
04:12
than they're using credit cards.
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越來越多人開始使用現金卡，
04:14
So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.
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人們開始在存款限額內進行消費；
04:17
And we're starting to be much more careful
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同時我們也更加謹慎規劃
04:19
about how we save and how we invest.
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儲蓄與投資。
04:21
But that's not really the whole story.
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但這還無法說明整件事的全貌，
04:23
Because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.
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因為這也已經變成一個充滿戲劇化的轉變。
04:26
And you've got to admit, over the course of the last year and a half,
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我們必須承認,在過去一年半的時間裡，
04:28
consumers have been doing some pretty weird things.
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消費者做了一些相當奇怪的事，
04:30
It's been pretty staggering, what we've lived through.
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因為我們所經歷的事件太不可思議了，
04:33
If you take into account 80 percent of all Americans
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尤其現在的美國人，
04:35
were born after World War II,
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有80%是在二次世界大戰之後出生，
04:37
this is essentially our Depression.
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這無疑是我們的經濟大衰退。
04:39
And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.
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也因此,導致一些瘋狂的事情發生。
04:42
I'll give you some examples. Lets talk about dentists,
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我會舉幾個例子,像是牙醫、
04:44
vasectomies, guns and shark attacks. Okay?
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男人結紮、槍枝氾濫以及鯊魚攻擊事件，好嗎?
04:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:50
Dentists report molars,
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牙醫報告指出，
04:52
you know, people grinding their teeth, coming in
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從臼齒就可以看出人們磨牙，
04:54
and reporting the fact that they've had stress.
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顯示他們承受過多的壓力，
04:56
And so there is an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.
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因此補牙的人越來越多；
04:59
Guns, gun sales, according to the FBI,
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根據FBI的背景調查指出，
05:01
who does background checks, are up almost 25 percent since January.
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槍枝銷售量從1月到現在攀升了近25%；
05:06
Vasectomies are up 48 percent,
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根據Cornell機構資料顯示，
05:08
according to the Cornell institute.
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男人做結紮手術的比例上升了48%。
05:10
And lastly, but a very good point,
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最後，也是一個非常好的一點，
05:13
hopefully not related to the former point I just made,
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希望跟先前我所提到的都不相關，
05:15
which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.
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就是鯊魚攻擊的次數降到了2003年以來的最低點。
05:18
Does anybody know why?
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有人知道為什麼嗎？
05:22
No one is at the beach. So there is a bright side to everything.
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因為没人去沙灘了。反正每一件事都有好的一面。
05:25
But seriously, what we see happening,
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但是認真地來說，我們所看到發生的一切，
05:27
and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,
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以及為什麼我想要去強調現在不是消費者從市場上撤退的時機，
05:30
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
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對消費者來說，現在反而是一個絕佳的機會，
05:32
for the consumer who drove us into this recession
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雖然過度消費曾讓我們走入經濟衰退，
05:35
to lead us right back out.
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但消費也可以帶領我們走出衰退。
05:37
And what I mean by that is that we can move from mindless consumption
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經過這次的事件,我們可以從愚蠢的消費
05:40
to mindful consumption. Right?
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轉為聰明的消費,對吧?
05:43
If you think about the last three decades,
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如果你回顧一下過去三十年，
05:46
the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
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90年代還在試圖理解市場運作的消費者，
05:50
to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade,
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最近十年已經發展到懂得利用驚人的社交及搜尋工具，
05:54
but the one thing that has been holding them back is the ability to discriminate.
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唯一能將他們拉回市場的是辨別好壞的能力。
05:57
By restricting their demand, consumers can actually
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藉由限制他們的需求,消費者才能夠實際地
05:59
align their values with their spending,
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衡量消費的價值，
06:02
and drive capitalism and business
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引導資本主義和企業，
06:04
to not just be about more, but be about better.
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讓他們不只在乎數量，而是更在乎品質。
06:06
We're going to explain that right now.
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接下來我要來解釋這點，
06:09
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
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根據Y&R的品牌資產評估系統，
06:11
proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,
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這是VML和Y&R的專有工具，
06:14
we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis
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我們開始了解到，
06:16
with the consumer marketplace.
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金融危機在消費市場所扮演的角色。
06:19
We found a couple of really interesting things.
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我們發現了一些相當有趣的事情，
06:21
We're going to go through four value-shifts that we see
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我們要來探討引發新型消費行為、
06:24
driving new consumer behaviors,
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提供新型態管理法則的
06:26
that offer new management principles.
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四種價值觀的轉變。
06:28
The first cultural value shift that we see is this tendency
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首先是文化價值觀的轉變，
06:30
toward something we call liquid life.
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現在的生活型態漸漸開始重視流動性；
06:32
This is the movement from Americans defining their success
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以前美國人以為的成功，是擁有資產，
06:35
on having things to having liquidity,
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現在則是擁有現金，
06:38
because the less excess that you have around you,
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因為你購買的非必須品愈少，
06:40
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
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生活的負擔就會愈減輕。
06:43
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
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因此，就產生了低調消費。
06:45
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money
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低調消費不贊成盲目奢侈的消費，
06:48
frivolously makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
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因為那不符合現在的流行趨勢。
06:52
The management principle is dollars and cents.
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這個法則重視的是金錢。
06:54
So let's look at some examples of this déclassé
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那麼,讓我們先來看看一些低調消費
06:56
consumption that falls out of this value.
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這種價值觀轉變的例子。
06:59
First things is we see something must be happening when
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第一件事是當P. Diddy（吹牛老爹）宣告
07:01
P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
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不再穿戴華麗閃亮的服飾，那一定代表某種意義。
07:03
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:04
But seriously, we also have this phenomenon
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但是嚴格地說，
07:06
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
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這種現象也發生在廣告業和其他地方，
07:08
where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques
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當人們從奢侈的精品店走出來的時候，
07:11
with ordinary, sort of generic
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手裡拿著一般的紙袋，
07:13
paper bags to hide the brand purchases.
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裡面卻藏著他們剛買的各種名牌物品。
07:15
We see high-end haggling in fashion today.
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今天我們看到高檔的流行商品開始降價促銷，
07:18
High-end haggling for luxury and real estate.
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高檔的奢侈品和不動產也在降價，
07:21
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
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我們也看到自尊心的解放，
07:23
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
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以及人們不再玩弄巧計。
07:25
This is a story on the yacht club
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這是一個發生在遊艇俱樂部的故事，
07:27
that's all basically blue collar.
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成員基本上都是藍領階級，
07:29
Blue-collar yacht club, where you can join the yacht club,
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也就是藍領階級遊艇俱樂部,你可以參加這個俱樂部，
07:31
but you've got to work in the boat yard,
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但前題是你必須在船塢上工作，
07:33
as sort of condition of membership.
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這是入會的基本條件。
07:35
We also see the trend toward
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我們也看到未來趨勢朝向
07:37
tourism that's a little bit more low key. Right?
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低調觀光旅遊,對吧?
07:40
Agritourism, going to vineyards and going to farms.
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農業旅遊，走入葡萄園和農田去實際體驗。
07:43
And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.
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然後我們也看到消費者從重視金錢又往前邁了一步，
07:46
What businesses can do to connect
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企業運用這些新觀念所發展出來的想法，
07:48
with these new mindsets is really interesting.
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是相當有趣的，
07:50
A couple things that are kind of cool.
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有一些看起來還很酷。
07:52
One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing
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其中一個是Frito-Lay(知名食品公司)，他們從消費者身上
07:54
with their consumer.
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觀察到現金的使用狀況。
07:56
They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,
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他們發現消費者在月初有較多可運用的錢，
07:58
less at the end of the month. So what they did
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月底則較少，因此他們所做的
08:00
is they started to change their packaging.
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就是去改變他們的包裝，
08:02
Larger packs at the beginning of the month, smaller packaging
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月初販賣的包裝比較大，
08:04
at the end of the month.
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月底販賣的包裝則較小。
08:06
Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.
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另外，真正有趣的是舊金山巨人棒球隊，
08:09
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
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他們採用了動態定價策略，
08:12
So it takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,
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將各種因素列入考量,像是投手與打者的投打記錄、
08:14
to the weather, to the team records,
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天氣、球隊紀錄等，
08:17
in setting prices for the consumer.
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作為訂定票價的依據。
08:19
Another quick example of these types of movements is
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另一個例子就是Zynga（開發"開心農場"的遊戲廠商）
08:22
the rise of Zynga.
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的快速崛起。
08:24
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
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Zynga的崛起，是因為消費者
08:26
to not want to be locked in to fixed-cost.
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不想定期支付固定成本，
08:29
Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.
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同樣的，重點是關於變動成本及變動生活，
08:31
So micropayments have become huge.
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所以消費者的小額支出便累積出Zynga的巨額收入。
08:33
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
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最後,有一些人使用Hulu（免付費網路電視）
08:36
actually as a device to get rid of their cable bill.
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作為逃避有線電視帳單的手法。
08:38
So, really clever ideas there
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因此,消費者開始採用
08:40
that are kind of being taken ahold and marketers are starting to understand.
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一些真正聰明的想法,而企業也開始瞭解到這個現象。
08:43
The second of the four values
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第二個價值觀的轉變，
08:45
is this movement toward ethics and fair play.
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是重視道德及公平競賽。
08:48
We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.
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消費者表現出來的行為是同理心與尊重，
08:51
The consumer is demanding it.
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因為這是消費者需要的，
08:53
And, as a result, businesses must provide
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所以企業不只要提供有價值的東西，
08:55
not only value, but values.
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還得提供符合消費者的價值觀。
08:57
Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,
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漸漸地，消費者開始檢視公司文化，
08:59
looking for their conduct in the marketplace.
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在市場中觀察企業的行為。
09:02
So, what we see with empathy and respect, lots of really hopeful things
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由於消費者重視同理心與尊重，在這次的經濟衰退中
09:04
that have come out of this recession.
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竟產生很多真正有希望的事情。
09:06
And I'll give you a few examples.
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下面是一些例子，
09:08
One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,
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其中之一是重視社區與鄰里，
09:10
and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.
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並將鄰居當作自己的後備支援系統。
09:14
Also a wonderful byproduct of sort of a really lousy thing,
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此外,這次的經濟衰退雖然導致了嚴重的失業率，
09:18
which has been unemployment, is a rise in
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但卻出現了一個很棒的副產品，
09:20
volunteerism that's been noted in our country.
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就是目前國人所注意到的義工的增加。
09:22
We also see the phenomenon --
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我們也看到這樣的一個現象，
09:24
some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
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你們家裡可能有”賴家王老五”，
09:26
these are "boomerang alumni,"
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這些人則是返校校友，
09:28
where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni
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由大學來聯繫這些畢業校友，
09:30
in helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.
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幫助他們找工作、分享專業技能，並進行職業訓練。
09:34
We also talked about character and professionalism.
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我們也談論到人格特質與個人專業，
09:36
We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City, you know, in January,
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今年一月時，紐約的哈德遜河上發生了機長成功迫降的奇蹟，
09:40
and suddenly Sully has become a key name on Babycenter.
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突然間Sully(機長)這個名字便成了為嬰兒命名的當紅選擇。
09:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:45
So, from a value and values standpoint,
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因此,從價值及價值觀的觀點來看，
09:47
what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.
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公司能做的是用各種方式與之連結。
09:50
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
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微軟做了一些很棒的事，
09:52
They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with I.T. training,
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他們對外宣示將訓練2百萬美國人從事資訊行業，
09:56
using their existing infrastructure to do something good.
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也就是使用他們既有的設備去做一些好事。
09:59
Also a really interesting company is Gore-Tex.
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另一個有趣的公司是Gore-Tex，
10:02
Gore-Tex is all about personal accountability
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Gore-Tex相當強調個人自我的責任感，
10:04
of their management and their employees,
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不管是主管或是員工都一樣，
10:06
to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.
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所以幾乎用不到主管的權威。
10:10
But they also talk about the fact that
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但他們也談論到，
10:12
their executives, all of their expense reports
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公司高階主管的所有費用支出，
10:14
are put onto their company intranet for everyone to see.
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都條列在公司內部網路供每個員工觀看，
10:17
Complete transparency.
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完全透明，
10:19
Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.
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所以高階主管在喝酒前可得三思而後行。
10:22
The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism
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第三個法則是
10:25
is about durable living.
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永續生存。
10:27
We're seeing on our data that consumers are realizing
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資料顯示，消費者已經意識到
10:29
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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金融危機是一場馬拉松，而非短跑；
10:31
They are digging in. And they're looking for ways to extract value
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他們開始認真地尋找方法去取得
10:33
out of every purchase that they make.
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每次購買所創造出的價值，
10:36
Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars
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我們看到美國人現在保有同一輛車的時間，
10:38
longer than ever before,
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比以前還要久，
10:40
9.4 years on average, in March. A record.
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在今年三月創下歷史紀錄，平均9.4年。
10:44
We also see the fact that libraries have become
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我們也看到，圖書館已經變成
10:46
a huge resource for America.
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美國人很常使用的地方，
10:48
Did you know that 68 percent of Americans
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你知道現在有68%的美國人
10:50
now carry a library card?
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辦了圖書證嗎?
10:52
The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.
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這在我們國家的紀錄中，是最高的比例。
10:54
So what you see in this trend is also
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從這個趨勢我們也可以看到
10:56
the accumulation of knowledge.
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知識的累積，
10:58
Continuing education is up.
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越來越多人不斷地學習，
11:00
Everything is focused on betterment, and training,
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每件事都強調改善、訓練、
11:02
and development and moving forward.
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發展及進步。
11:04
We also see a big DIY movement.
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我們也看到一個DIY的趨勢，
11:07
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent
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我很驚訝有30%的美國人，
11:10
of all homes in America are actually built by owners.
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動手建造自己的房屋，
11:13
That includes cottages and the like. But 30 percent.
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包括農舍小屋這類的，有30%的人耶...
11:16
So, people are getting their hands dirty. They are rolling up their sleeves.
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他們必須捲起袖子，弄髒雙手，
11:18
They want these skills.
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他們希望取得這類技術。
11:20
We see that with the phenomenon of raising backyard
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我們看到有人在後院飼養
11:22
hens and chickens and ducks. And when you work out the math,
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母雞、小雞及鴨子，當你計算成本效益後，
11:25
they say it doesn't work, but the principle is there
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他們卻回答那不重要，他們所重視的是
11:27
that it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.
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關於永續及自給自足的概念。
11:31
And then we look at the High Line in New York City,
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我們再看看紐約市的High Line長廊式休憩公園，
11:33
an excellent use of reimagining
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將原有的設施重新改造，
11:35
existing infrastructure for something good, which is
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賦予全新的面貌，
11:37
a brand new park in New York City.
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一躍而成紐約市的新地標公園。
11:39
So, what brands can do, and companies,
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因此,品牌或企業能做的，
11:41
is pay dividends to consumers,
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就是回饋給消費者，
11:43
be a brand that lasts,
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並承諾大眾
11:45
offer transparency, promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.
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做一個永續經營、透明的企業，而不僅只是銷售而已。
11:48
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
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最佳的例子是Patagonia(成衣商)，
11:51
Patagonia's Footprint Chronicles basically
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Patagonia設計了一套產品追蹤系統，
11:53
goes through and tracks every product that they make,
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可以讓消費者查詢產品的生產過程，
11:56
and gives you social responsibility,
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並讓消費者瞭解，在每樣產品背後，
11:58
and helps you understand the ethics
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都有自己的社會責任
12:00
that are behind the product that they make.
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與道德倫理。
12:02
Another great example is Fidelity.
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另一個很棒的例子是富達證券，
12:04
Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,
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一般發卡公司都是將現金回饋到消費者的信用卡上，
12:07
this is about 529 rewards
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但富達卻是提供529項助學獎勵金，
12:09
for your student education.
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作為學生教育補助。
12:12
Or the interesting company SunRun.
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或者還有另一個有趣的公司SunRun，
12:14
I love this company. They've created a consumer collective
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我喜歡這間公司，因為他們提供的產品，
12:17
where they put solar panels on households
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可以讓消費者將太陽能面板放置在一般家庭裡，
12:20
and create a consumer-based utility,
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就像一個小型的家庭電力公司，
12:22
where the electricity that they generate is basically
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並將產生的電力
12:24
pumped back out into the marketplace.
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再賣回到市場上，
12:26
So, it's a consumer driven co-op.
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形成一個由消費者主導的合作模式。
12:28
So, the fourth sort of post-crisis consumerism that we see
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第四種金融危機後的消費價值觀的改變，
12:31
is this movement about return to the fold.
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是恢復對人的信任，
12:34
It's incredibly important right now.
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這是非常重要的一點，
12:36
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
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因為我們都知道信任無法分配。
12:39
It's now about connecting to your communities,
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我們所談的是社區連結與
12:41
connecting to your social networks.
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社會網絡的連結。
12:43
In my book I talked about the fact that 72 percent
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在我的書中有提到，
12:45
of people trust what other people say
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72%的人信賴認識的人
12:47
about a brand or a company, versus 15 percent on advertising.
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介紹的品牌跟公司,只有15%的人相信廣告。
12:50
So, in that respect,
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因此,在這方面，
12:52
cooperative consumerism has really taken off.
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互助消費主義已經開始發酵，
12:54
This is about consumers working together
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消費者們相互合作，
12:56
to get what they want out of the marketplace.
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去得到他們想從市場上取得的東西。
12:58
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
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先快速地看一下幾個例子，
13:00
The artisanal movement is huge.
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現在掀起了一股巨大的手工製造風潮，
13:02
Everything about locally derived products and services,
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他們全都使用當地的產品與服務，
13:05
supporting your local neighborhoods,
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無論是起司、酒或其他產品，
13:07
whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.
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讓當地的居民有生意可做。
13:10
Also this rise of local currencies.
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同時各地也開始印製流通於當地的貨幣，
13:13
Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,
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因為大家瞭解到在這種環境下，很難取得融資，
13:15
you're doing business with people you trust,
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所以人們開始只和自己信賴的人做生意，
13:17
in your local markets.
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也只在當地的市場做生意，
13:19
So, this rise of this sort of local currency
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因此,只限當地流通的貨幣就出現了，
13:21
is another really interesting phenomenon.
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這變成另一個有趣的現象。
13:23
And then they did a recent report
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最近有一個報告，
13:25
I thought was fascinating.
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我覺得這個報告很吸引人，
13:27
They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,
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報告指出，美國的某些特定社區，
13:29
start to publish people's electricity usage.
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已經開始公布各個家庭的用電量，
13:32
And what they found out is when that was available for public record,
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他們發現，一旦公布用電量的資訊，
13:35
the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.
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該社區的用電量就會開始減少。
13:39
Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,
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再來,我們來看看揪團買牛肉的構想，
13:42
which is the whole phenomenon of consumers
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這是由消費者
13:44
organizing together
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自己組織起來，
13:46
to buy meat from organic farms
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去有機農場裡直接購買肉品，
13:48
that they know is safe and controlled in the way that they want it to be controlled.
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因為他們認同該農場的管理風格及肉品安全。
13:52
And then there is this other really interesting movement
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還有一個很有趣的運動，
13:54
that's happened in California, which is about carrot mobs.
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就是從加州興起的胡蘿蔔運動。
13:57
The traditional thing would be to boycott right?
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傳統的方法是聯合抵制購買,對吧?
13:59
Have a stick? Well why not have a carrot?
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但那是對商家的懲罰?為什麼不用獎勵的方式呢?
14:01
So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources
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因此,這些消費者組織起來、集合大家的資源，
14:05
to incentify companies to do good.
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去鼓勵那些商家表現得更好，
14:08
And then we look at what companies can do.
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然後我們再來看看企業能做到什麼程度。
14:11
This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.
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由消費者組成的社群能做很多事，
14:14
You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.
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你必須了解你不能對抗消費者，也不能控制消費者，
14:17
You actually need to organize it.
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你只能把消費者組織起來，
14:19
You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.
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駕馭這個組織，賦予它意義。
14:21
And there is lots of really interesting examples here
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這裡有很多有趣的實際案例，
14:23
that we see.
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可以供我們參考。
14:25
First is just the rise of the fact that
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第一個案例是Zagat(餐廳評比網站)，
14:27
Zagat's has actually moved out of
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他們已經跨出自己原本的領域，
14:29
and diversified from rating restaurants,
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從美食餐廳的評比
14:32
into actually rating healthcare.
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跨足到醫療保健的評比。
14:34
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
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Zagat到底能做什麼呢?
14:36
Well, they have a lot, because it's their network of people. Right?
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他們能做的事當然很多，因為他們擁有強大的人脈，對吧?
14:39
So that becomes a very powerful force for them
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所以,人脈是他們非常強大力量的來源，
14:41
to make their brand more elastic.
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讓他們的品牌更具彈性。
14:44
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
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再來看看Kogi(賣包韓國烤肉的墨西哥薄餅)現象，
14:47
This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck. Right?
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Kogi並不是餐廳,而是一個流動餐車,對吧?
14:50
It's a moving truck through L.A., and the only way you can find it
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它是一個穿梭在洛杉磯的快餐車,而你只能透過Twitter
14:52
is through Twitter.
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才能找到它。
14:54
Or you look at Johnson & Johnson's Momversations.
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又或者再看看嬌生集團的媽媽經網站，
14:59
A phenomenal blog that's been built up.
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這是一個驚人的部落格，
15:01
Where J&J basically is tapping into
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嬌生集團抓準了
15:03
the power of mommy bloggers,
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媽咪部落客的心理，
15:05
allowing them to basically create a forum
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讓她們建立一個論壇，
15:08
where they can communicate and they can connect.
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可以互相溝通和連結，
15:10
And it's also become a very, very valuable
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這儼然已經變成一個非常有效的
15:12
sort of advertising revenue for J&J as well.
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行銷方式。
15:15
This plus the fact that you've got
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這些以及我們從福特汽車
15:17
phenomenal work from CEOs
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到Zappos(知名網路鞋店)的執行長上所學到的，
15:19
from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,
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連結上Twitter後，
15:21
creating an open environment,
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就能創造出一個開放的環境，
15:23
allowing their employees to be part of the process,
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讓員工也參予整個過程，
15:26
rather than hidden behind walls.
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而非藏在幕後。
15:28
You see this rising force in sort of
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企業似乎都已開始採行
15:30
total transparency and openness that companies are starting to adopt,
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資訊透明及公開的策略，
15:33
all because the consumer is demanding it.
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因為消費者希望他們這樣做。
15:36
So, when we look at this and we step back,
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因此,當我們看清這一點，再回頭看看，
15:38
what I believe is that the crisis that exists today
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我相信今天發生的危機，
15:40
is definitely real.
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是絕對真實的。
15:42
It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.
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金融危機已經對消費者造成極大的衝擊，
15:45
But, at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.
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但同時，這也代表這是一個絕佳的機會。
15:48
And the Chinese character for crisis
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中國字對於危機的詮釋，
15:50
is actually the same side of the same coin.
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實際上指的是同一件事，
15:53
Crisis equals opportunity.
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危機就是轉機。
15:55
What we're seeing with consumers right now
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我們所看到的消費者行為的轉變，
15:57
is the ability for them to actually
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事實上是消費者有能力
15:59
lead us forward out of this recession.
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引領我們走出這次的經濟衰退。
16:01
So, we believe that values-driven spending
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因此,我們相信，價值導向的消費行為，
16:03
will force capitalism to be better.
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將引導促使資本主義走向更好的境界。
16:06
It will drive innovation.
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它將帶來創新、
16:08
It will make longer-lasting products. It will
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創造更持久耐用的產品、
16:10
create better, more intuitive customer service.
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提供更好、更直觀的服務。
16:12
It will give us the opportunity to connect with companies
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這讓我們有機會與企業一同
16:15
that share the values that we share.
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互相分享價值。
16:17
So, when we look back and step out at this
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因此,當我們回過頭去，或跳出來
16:19
and see the beginning of these trends
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看這些資料顯示為
16:21
that we're seeing in our data,
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正在興起的趨勢時，
16:23
we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.
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我們看到的未來是一個非常有希望的美國。
16:25
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝你們。
16:27
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
John Gerzema - Marketing whizJohn Gerzema uses data, analysis and decades of experience to identify trends and develop daring new approaches to advertising.
Why you should listen
John Gerzema has spent his career creating and guiding the brand strategies of many of our household names: McDonald's, BMW, Coca-Cola, United Airlines, Holiday Inn and more. Today, as Chief Insights Officer for marketing giant Young & Rubicam, he combines his expertise with the information reaped from Y&R's Brand Asset Valuator (an enormous database of brands) to understand and anticipate change in the intricate world of commerce.
Gerzema is co-author of The Brand Bubble, a new book that advocates change as the best strategy for brand management in today's market. This is not his first avant-garde move either -- he was one of the early adopters of account planning in American advertising, a method that places the consumer front and center in the branding process. After speaking at TEDxKC, Gerzema penned a second book called Spend Shift based on the premises of his talk on the changing habits of the post-crisis consumer.
John Gerzema | Speaker | TED.com