TEDxBrussels
Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift
Zhvendosja globale e pushtetit
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Paddy Ashdown deklaron se jemi duke jetuar nje moment ne histori ku pushteti eshte duke u ndryshuar ne menyra si asnjehere me pare. Me nje fjalim magjepes ne TED Bruksel ai përshkruan tre ndërrime të mëdha botërore që ai e sheh që po vine.
Paddy Ashdown - Diplomat
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
There's a poem written
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Eshte nje e poem e shkruar
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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nga nje poet i famshem anglez
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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ne fund te shekullit 19.
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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U tha për të jehuar në trurin e Churchillit
00:24
in the 1930s.
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ne 1930.
00:26
And the poem goes:
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Dhe poema thote:
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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" Në kodrën e qete të verës,
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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zvarritur me rrjedhen e lumenjeve,
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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sërish unë dëgjoj një daullexhi të largët
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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gumezhin si nje tingull ne enderra,
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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larg dhe afer dhe ulte dhe lart ne rruget e tokes
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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i dashur per shoke dhe ushqim per pluhur
00:42
soldiers marching,
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ushtaret marshojne,
00:44
soon to die."
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se shpejti per te vdekur."
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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Ata qe jane te interesur ne poezi
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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poema eshte " A Shropshire Lad" e shkruar nga A.E Housman.
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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Por cka kuptoj Housman,
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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dhe ju e degjoni ate ne simfonite e Nielsen gjithashtu,
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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ishte vere e gjate, e nxehte
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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e stabilitetit te shekullit te 19
01:03
were coming to a close,
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ne jemi duke u afruar shume,
01:05
and that we were about to move
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dhe ne ishim gati per te levizur
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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ne ato faza tmerruese te historise
01:09
when power changes.
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ku pushteti ndryshon.
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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Dhe keto jane gjithmone faza, zonja dhe zotrinj,
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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te percjellura nga turbullirat,
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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dhe shume shpesh me gjak.
01:18
And my message for you
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Dhe mesazhi im per ju
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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eshte se une besoj ne jemi te denuar,
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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për të jetuar vetëm ne një nga ato momente në histori
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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ku pajisjet qe mbajne gjera ne pozicion me te cilat
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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zhvillimi i rregullt i pushtetit eshte duke filluar te ndryshoje
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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dhe pamja e re e botes,
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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pushtetet te reja qe ekzistojne ne bote,
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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jane duke filluar te marrin forme.
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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Dhe keto jane--e shohim ate shume qarte sot--
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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gati cdo here kohera shume te trubullta, shume te veshtira,
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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dhe shume shpesh kohera te pergjakshme.
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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Me qe ra fjala, ndodh rreth nje here ne cdo shekull.
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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Ju mund te argumentoni se heren e fundit ka ndodhur--
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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dhe kjo eshte cka ndjeu Housman dhe cka ndjeu Churchill gjithashtu--
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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ishte kjo kur pushteti kaloj nga kombet e vjetra,
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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fuqite e vjetra te Europes
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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permes Atlantikut me pushtetin e ri zhvillues
02:00
of the United States of America --
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te Shteteve te Bashkuara te Amerikes--
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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fillimi i shekullit amerikan.
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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Dhe sigurisht, ne vakum
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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ku fuqite e vjetra europiane ishin
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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ne veprim ne dy katastofat e pergjakshme
02:12
of the last century --
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te shekullit te fundit--
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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njera ne pjesen e pare dhe tjetra ne pjesen e dyte: dy Lufterat e medha Boterore.
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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Mao Cedun u referohej atyre si luftera europiane,
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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dhe ndoshta eshte menyre me e sigurte e pershkrimit te tyre.
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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Mire, zonja dhe zotrinj,
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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ne jetojme e njeren prej ketyre koherave.
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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Por per neve, dua te flas sot per tre faktore.
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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Dhe i pari nga keta, dy te paret nga keta.
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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eshte rreth ndryshimit te pushtetit.
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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Dhe e dyta eshte per disa dimenzione te reja ne cilat do te referohesha,
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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qe nuk ka ndodhur ne menyre se si eshte duke ndodhur tani.
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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Por le te flasim per ndryshimet te pushteteve qe jane duke i ndodhur botes.
02:44
And what is happening today
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Dhe cka eshte duke ndodhur sot
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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eshte ne njefare menyre, frikesuese
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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sepse nuk ka ndodhur kurre me pare.
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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Ne kemi parë ndryshime anësore të pushtetit -
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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pushteti i Greqise kaloi te Roma
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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dhe ndryshimet e pushteve qe ndodhen
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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gjate civilizimit europian--
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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por ne jemi duke pare dicka jo shume ndryshe.
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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Për pushtet nuk është vetëm qe te leviz anash
03:05
from nation to nation.
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prej nje shteti ne tjettrin.
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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Gjithashtu edhte duke levizur vertikalisht.
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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Cka eshte duke ndodhur sot eshte se pushteti qe ishte mbeshtjelle,
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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qe eshte mbajtur me pergjegjesi, mbajtur me sundim te ligjit
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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brenda institucioneve te kombit te shtetit
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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tani ka emigruar në masë shumë të madhe në fazë globale.
03:21
The globalization of power --
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Globalizimi i pushtetit--
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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ne flasim per globalizimin e tregjeve,
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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por faktikisht eshte globalizimi i pushtetit te vertete.
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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Dhe ku, ne nivel te shtetit kombetar
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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ai pushtet eshte mbajtur nga pergjegjesia
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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subjekt i sundimit të ligjit,
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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ne shkallen nderkombtare nuk eshte.
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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Shkalla nderkombetare dhe ajo globale ku pushteti tani rri:
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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fuqinë e internetit, fuqia e transmetuesve satelitore,
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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fuqinë e këmbyesve të parave -
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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keto para te pa fundme sillen per rreth
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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qe tani qarkullonjne 32 here ne shumen e nevojshme te parase
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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per tregtine supozohet te financohet
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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kembyesit e parave, nese keni deshire,
03:58
the financial speculators
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afaristet finaciar
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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qe na kane sjell ne gjunje se fundi,
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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fuqia e korporatave multinacionale
04:05
now developing budgets
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tani duke zhvilluar buxhetet
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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shpesh vendet e medha me shume sesa ato me madhesi te mesme.
04:10
These live in a global space
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Keta jetojne ne hapersire globale
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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e cila eshte kryesisht e parregulluar,
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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nuk i nënshtrohen sundimit të ligjit,
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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dhe në të cilën njerëzit mund të veprojë pa detyrim.
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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Tani kjo i pershtatet
04:22
up to a moment.
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momentit te fuqishem.
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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Gjithmone eshte e pershtatshme per ata te cilet kane fuqine me te madhe
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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për të operuar në hapësirat pa kufizim,
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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por mesimi i historise eshte se, heret ose vone,
04:33
unregulated space --
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hapersira e pa rregulluar--
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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hapesira qe nuk i nenshtrohet sundimit te ligjit--
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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bëhet e populluar jo vetëm nga gjërat që ju kërkuat--
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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tregtia nderkombtare, interneti, etj--
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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por gjithashtu nga gjerat qe ju nuk i deshironi--
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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kriminaliteti nderkombtar, terrorizmi nderkombtar.
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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Shpallja e 9/11
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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eshte se edhe nese ju jeni shteti me i fuqishem ne toke,
04:54
nevertheless,
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megjithate,
04:57
those who inhabit that space can attack you
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ata që banojnë në këtë hapësirë mund të ju sulmojnë
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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edhe ne qytetet me te kryesore,
05:01
one bright September morning.
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nje mengjes te kthjellte Shtatori.
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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Thuhet se 60 perqind
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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e kater milion dollareve qe u perdoren per te financuar 9/11
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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faktikisht kaluan nepermejt institucionit te Kullave Binjake
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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te cilen 9/11 e shkatrroi.
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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E shihni, armiqte tane gjithashtu perdoren kete hapesire--
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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hapësirën e udhëtimit masiv, internetit, transmetuesit satelitor -
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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te jene ne gjendje te marrin me vete helmin e tyre,
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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i cili eshte per shaktrrimin e sistemeve tona dhe menyrave tona.
05:24
Sooner or later,
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Heret ose vone,
05:26
sooner or later,
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heret ose vone,
05:28
the rule of history
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parimi i historise
05:30
is that where power goes
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eshte se ku pushteti shkon
05:32
governance must follow.
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qeverisja duhet te ndjek.
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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Dhe nese ky eshte rasti, pasi une besoj se eshte,
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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njeri nder fenomenet e kohes tone
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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eshte globalizimi i pushtetit,
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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atëherë ai vijon se një nga sfidat e kohës sonë
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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eshte te sjellim qeverisjen ne hapsiren globale.
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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Dhe une besoj se dekadat para neve tani
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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do te jene trazira ne nje shkalle me te madhe ose me te vogel
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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me shume ose me pak ne jemi ne gjendje te mbrrijme ate qellim:
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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per te djelle qeverisjen ne hapsirren globale.
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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Tani vreni, une nuk jame duke folur per qeverine.
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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Une nuk jam duke folur per vendosjen
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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e disa institucioneve demokratike globale.
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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Opinioni im, meqe ra fjala, zonja dhe zoteri,
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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është se kjo nuk ka gjasa për t'u bërë
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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duke hedhut veze me shume ne institucionet U.N.
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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Nese ne nuk e kishim pasur U.N, ne do te duhet te shpikim ate.
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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Bota ka nevoje per nje forum internacional.
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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Ajo ka nevojë për një mjet me të cilën ju mund të legjitimoni veprimet ndërkombëtare.
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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Por kur vije tek qeverisja e hapsires globale,
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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supozimi im eshte kjo nuk do te ndodh
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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nepermjet krimit te me shume institucioneve U.N.
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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Faktikisht do te ndodh nga pushteti
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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dhe duke bere traktat te bazuar ne sisteme,
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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marrveshje bazuar ne traktat,
06:34
to govern that global space.
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per te qeverisur ate hapesire globale.
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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Dhe në qoftë se ju shikoni, ju mund të shihni ato te ndodhin, duke filluar të shfaqen tashmë.
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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Organizata e Tregtise Boterore: traktat bazuar neorganizate,
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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krejtsisht traktat bazuar ne marreveshje,
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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dhe ende, mjaft e fuqishëme për të mbajtur edhe më të fuqishme, Shtetet e Bashkuara
06:47
to account if necessary.
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per te llogaritut nese eshte e nevojshme.
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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Kyoto: fillimet e luftimit per te krijuar
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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nje traktat bazur ne organizate.
06:53
The G20:
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G20:
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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ne dime tani se ne duhet te vendosim se bashku nje institucion
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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i cili eshte ne gjendje te sjell qeverisje
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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hapsires financiare per spekulime financiare.
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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Dhe kjo eshte cka G20 eshte, nje traktat bazur ne instiucione
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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Tani eshte nje problem aty,
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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dhe ne do te kthehemi perseri per nje minute,
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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gje qe eshte nese ju sjellni me te fuqishmit se bashku
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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per te bere rregullat ne traktate te bazuar ne institucione,
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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per te mbushur ate hapesire te qeverisjes,
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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pastaj cka i ndodh te dobetve te cilet jane lene jashte?
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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Dhe ky eshte nje problem i madh,
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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dhe ne do te kthehemi aty ne nje sekonde.
07:24
So there's my first message,
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Keshtu, ja ku eshte mesazhi im i pare,
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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qe nese jeni duke kaluar nepermjet ketyre koherave te trazuara
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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me shume ose me pak trazueze
07:32
then our success in doing that
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pastaj suksesi yne ne berjen e saj
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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në masë të madhe do të varet nga kapacitetet tona
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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per te sjelle qeverisje te arsyeshme
07:38
to the global space.
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te hapsires globale.
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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Dhe shikoni ate duke filluar te ndodhe.
07:43
My second point is,
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Qellimi im i dyte eshte,
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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dhe une e di une nuk duhet te flas per nje audience sikur kjo
07:47
about such a thing,
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per nje gje te tille,
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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por pushtetit nuk eshte vetem tek zhvendosja vertikale,
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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gjithashtu eshte zhvendosje horizontale.
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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Ju mund te argumentoni se historia, historia e civilizimit,
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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ka civilizime te mbledhura rreth detrave--
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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me ato te parat rreth Mesdheut,
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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ato më të fundit me prejardhje nga fuqia perëndimore rreth Atlantikut.
08:07
Well it seems to me
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Mire me duket mua
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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se ne jemi duke pare nje zhvendosje rrenjesore e fuqise,
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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larg nga kombet te mbledhura rreth Atlantikut
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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tek kombet e mbledhura rreth Pacifikut.
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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Tani kjo fillon me fuqi ekonomike,
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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por kjo eshte menyra qe cdo here fillon.
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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Ju tashmë filluat të shihni zhvillimin e politikave të huaja,
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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rritja e buxheteve ushtarake
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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ndodh ne fuqi tjera te botes.
08:29
I think actually
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Ne fakt un mendoj
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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nuk eshte edhe aq zhvendosje nga Perendimi ne Lindje;
08:33
something different is happening.
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dicka ndryshe eshte duke ndodhur.
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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Mendimi im eshte se
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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Shtetet e Bashkuara do te mbesin
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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kombi me i fuqishem ne rruzullin tokesor
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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per 10, 15 vitet e ardhshme,
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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por konteksti ne te cilen ajo e mban pushtetin
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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tani ka ndryshuar rrënjësisht, ajo ka ndryshuar rrënjësisht.
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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Ne jemi duke ardhur tek vitet e 50-ta,
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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vitet me jo te zakonshme te historise
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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ne te cilen ne kemi pasur nje bote mono-polare,
08:57
in which every compass needle
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ne te cilen cdo gjilpere e busulles
08:59
for or against
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per apo kunder
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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duhet të referohej nga pozicioni i saj në Uashington -
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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një botë të shkatërruar nga një kolos i vetëm.
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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Por ky nuk eshte rast i zakonshem ne histori.
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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Ne fakt, cka eshte duke u shfaqur tani
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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eshte rast shume me normal i historise.
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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Ju keni filluar te shihni shfaqjen
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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e botes multipolare.
09:18
Up until now,
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Deri me tani,
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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Shtetet e Bashkuara ka qene tipar dominues i botes tone.
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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Ata do te mbesin kombi me i fuqishem,
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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por ata do te jene kombi me i fuqishem
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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ne nje bote gjithnje e me multipolare.
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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Dhe ju filloni te shihni qendrat alternative të pushtetit ndërtimues-
09:32
in China, of course,
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ne Kine, sigurisht,
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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edhe pse mendimi im eshte se ngjitja e Kines ne lartesi nuk eshte e lehte.
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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Do te jete mjaft i ashper
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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pasiqe Kina fillon te demokratizoje shoqerine e saj
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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pas liberalizimit te ekonomise se saj
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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Por kjo eshte nje teme e nje diskutimi tjeter.
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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Ju e shihnin Indine, ju e shihni Brazilin.
09:48
You see increasingly
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Ju e shihni gjithnje e me shume
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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se bota tani faktikisht per ne Europianet duket
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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shume me shume sikur Europa ne shekullin e 19.
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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Europa ne shekullin e 19:
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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nje sekretar i jashtem Britanik, Lordi Canning,
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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e pershkruante ate si " Koncerti Europian i Fuqive."
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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Ishte nje bilanc, nje bilanc pese-anesh.
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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Britania gjithmone ka luajtur me bilancin
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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Nese Parisi bashkohej me Berlinin,
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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Britania bashkohej me Vienen dhe Romen per te siguruar balancim.
10:13
Now notice,
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Tani vereni,
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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ne nje periudhe e cila eshte e dominuar nga bota mono-polare,
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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ju keni rregullar aleatet--
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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NATO, Pakti i Varshaves.
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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Një polarizim i caktuar i pushtetit
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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do te thote aleanca te caktuara.
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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Por nje polarizim i shumfishte i pushtetit
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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do te thote zhvendosje dhe ndryshim i aleateve.
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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Dhe kjo eshte bota qe jemi duke hyre,
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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ne te cilen ne do te shohim gjithnje e me shume
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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qe aleatet tone nuk jane te caktuar.
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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Canning, sekretary i jashtem Britanik nje here tha,
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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" Britania ka nje interes te perbashket,
10:39
but no common allies."
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po jo aleat te perbashket."
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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Dhe ne do te shohim gjithnje e me shume
10:43
that even we in the West
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se madje ne ne Perendim
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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do te mbrrim, duhet te mbrrim,
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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përtej rrethit rehatshëm e fuqive të Atlantikut
10:49
to make alliances with others
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te bejme aleance me te tjeret
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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nese duam te perfundojme gjerat ne bote.
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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Permend se kur ne shkuam ne Libi,
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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kjo nuk ishte aq e mirë për Perëndimin për të bërë atë vetëm;
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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ne u desht qe te sjellin te tjere.
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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Ne u desht te sjellin ne kete rast, Shoqaten Arabe.
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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Mendimi im eshte Iraku dhe Afganistani koheve te fundit
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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kur Perendimi ka provuar ta beje ate vetem,
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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dhe ne nuk kemi patur sukses.
11:10
My guess
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Mendimi im
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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eshte se ne jemi duke arritur fillimin e fundit te 400 viteve--
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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E them 400 vjet, sepse ky është fundi i Perandorisë Osmane -
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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te dominimit te pushtetit Perendimor,
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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institucioneve Perendimore dhe vlerave Perendimore.
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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E dini, deri me sot, nese Perendimi i beri akcionet se bashku,
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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mund te propozoje dhe rregulloj
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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ne cdo qosh te botes.
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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Por kjo nuk eshte me e vertete.
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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Shikoni krizat e fundit finaciare
11:35
after the Second World War.
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pas Luftes se Dyte Boterore.
11:37
The West got together --
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Perendimi u bashkua--
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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Institucioni Bretton Woods, Banka Botërore, Fondi Monetar Ndërkombëtar -
11:42
the problem solved.
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problemi u zgjidh.
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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Tani ne duhet te therrasim te tjeret.
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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Tani duhet te krijojme G20.
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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Tani ne duhet te arrijme pertej rrethit te rehatshem
11:50
of our Western friends.
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te shokeve tane Perendimor.
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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Me lejoni te bej nje parashikim per ju,
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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i cili ndoshta eshte madje me befasues.
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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Une dyshoj se ne jemi duke arritur fundin
12:00
of 400 years
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e 400 viteve
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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kur pushteti Perendimor ishte i mjaftushem.
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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Njerezit me thone mua, " Kinezet, sigurisht,
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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ata kurre nuk do te fusin veten e tyre
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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ne krijimin e paqes, krijimin e paqes shumepaleshe perreth botes."
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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Oh po? Pse jo?
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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Sa trupa Kineze
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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sherbejne nen bereten e kalter, duke sherbyer nen flamurin e kalter
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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duke sherbyer nen komanden e U.N. ne boten sot?
12:18
3,700.
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3.700.
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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Sa Amerikan? 11.
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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Cili është kontigjenti më i madh detar
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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qe trajton ceshtjen e pirateve Somalez?
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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Kontingjenti detar Kinez.
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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Sigurisht ata jane komb merkantiliste.
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
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Ata deshirojne te mbajne linjat e detit te hapura.
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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Gjithnje e me shume, ne do te kemi pune
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
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me njerez me te cilet ne nuk ndajme vlera,
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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por me ke, per momentin, ne ndajme interesa te perbashketa.
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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Eshte nje menyre krejtsisht e re
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
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e te shikuarit boten qe tani eshte duke u shfaqur.
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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Dhe ja ku eshte faktori i trete,
12:50
which is totally different.
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i cili eshte krejtsisht ndryshe.
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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Sot ne boten tone moderne,
12:55
because of the Internet,
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per shkak te internetit.
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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për shkak të llojeve të gjërave që njerëzit kanë folur këtu
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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gjithcka eshte e lidhur me gjithcka.
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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Ne tani jemi te ndervarur.
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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Ne tani jemi te kombinuar,
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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si kombe, si individ
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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në një mënyrë që nuk ka ndodhur më parë,
13:12
never been the case before.
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kurre nuk ka ndodhur me pare.
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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Raporti reciprok i kombeve,
13:17
well it's always existed.
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gjithmone ka ekzistuar.
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
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Diplomacia eshte rreth menaxhimit te raportit reciprok te kombeve.
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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Por tani ne jemi lidhur ngushte sebashku.
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
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Ju merrni gripin e derrit ne Meksike,
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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eshte problem i aeroportit Charles de Gaulle
13:28
24 hours later.
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24 ore me vone.
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
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Lehman Brothers bije poshte.
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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Ka zjarre ne stepa te Rusise,
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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trazira te ushqimit ne Afrike.
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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Te gjithe ne tani jemi, thellesisht, thellesisht te lidhur.
13:42
And what that means
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Dhe cka do te thote kjo
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
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eshte idea e nje kombi shtetror qe vepron vetem
13:49
not connected with others,
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jo i lidhur me te tjeret,
13:51
not working with others,
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duke mos punuar me te tjeret,
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
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nuk është më një propozim praktik.
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
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Sepse veprimet e nje kombi shtetror
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
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s'jane te mbylluara as per vetveten,
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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as nuk është i mjaftueshëm për kombin shteteror
14:02
to control its own territory,
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per te kontrolluar territorin e vet
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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sepse efektet jashte kombit shteteror
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
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tani janë duke filluar të ndikojnë në atë që ndodh brenda tyre.
14:10
I was a young soldier
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Une isha nje ushtar i ri
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
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ne luftërat e fundit ne perandorinë e Britanisë.
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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Ne gjithen ate kohe, mbrojta e vendit tim
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
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ishte per nje gje dhe vetem per nje gje:
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
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sa e forte ishte ushtria jone, sa e forte ishte forca e jone ajore,
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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sa e forte ishte marina jone dhe sa te forte ishin aleatet tone.
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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Kjo ishte kur armiqte ishin jashte mureve.
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
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Tani armiku eshte mbrenda mureve.
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
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Tani nese une dua te flas per mbrojtjen e vendit tim,
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Shendetesise
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
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sepse semundja pandemike eshte nje kercenim per sigurine time,
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Bujqesise
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
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sepse siguria e ushqimit eshte nje kercenim per sigurine time,
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
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Une duhet te flas me Ministërin e Industrise
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
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sepse dobesia e infrastuktures
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
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është tani një pikë e sulmit të armiqve tanë -
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
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sic ne shohim nga betejat e rrjetit komjuterik--
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
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Une duhet te flas me Ministrin e Puneve te Mbrendshme
14:56
because who has entered my country,
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sepse kush ka hyn ne vendin tim,
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
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qe jeton në atë shtëpi me tarace në atë qytet
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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ka nje ndikim direkt se cka ndodh ne vendin tim--
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
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meqe jetojme ne Londer pash 7/7 bombardime.
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
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Nuk eshte akoma situata qe siguria e nje vendi
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
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eshte thjeshte nje ceshtje per ushtaret e saj dhe per ministrine e mbrojtjes
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
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Eshte kapaciteti i saj per te lidhur se bashku institucionet.
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
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Dhe kjo ju tregon diçka shumë te rëndësishme.
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
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Ju tregon se, ne fakt
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
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qeverite tona, te ndertuara vertikalisht,
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
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ndërtuan në modelin ekonomik të revolucionit industrial -
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
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hierarki vertikale, specializimin e detyrave,
15:29
command structures --
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sturkturen e komandes--
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
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i kane strukturat e gabuara krejtsisht.
15:33
You in business know
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Ju ne biznes e dini
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
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se struktura shembull e kohes tone, zonja dhe zoteri,
15:37
is the network.
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eshte rrjeti.
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
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Eshte kapaciteti i juaj i rrjetit qe ka rendesi,
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
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si brenda qeverive tuaja dhe jashtë.
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
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Pra ja ku eshte ligji i trete i Ashdown.
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
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Meqe ra fjala, mos me pyesni per ligjin e pare e dyte te Ashdown
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
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sepse nuk i kam shpikur ato tanime;
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
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gjithmonë tingëllon më mirë në qoftë se ka një ligj të tretë, apo jo?
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
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Ligji i trete i Ashdown eshte se ne kohen moderne,
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
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ku gjithcka eshte e lidhur me gjithcka,
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
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gjeja me e rendesishme se cka mund te beni
16:01
is what you can do with others.
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eshte cka mund te beni me te jeret.
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
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Pjesa me e rendesishme per strukturen tuaj--
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
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nëse ju jeni një qeveri, nëse ju jeni një regjiment ushtrie,
16:07
whether you're a business --
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nese ju jeni nje biznes--
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
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jane pikat e lidhjes suaj, interkonektoret tuaj,
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
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kapaciteti juaj te lidhen me te tjeret.
16:13
You understand that in industry;
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Ju e kuptoni se ne industri;
16:15
governments don't.
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qeverite nuk e bejne.
16:18
But now one final thing.
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Por tani nje gje te fundit.
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
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Nese eshte situata, zonja dhe zotrinjë---
16:23
that we are now locked together
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qe ne jemi te lidhur bashke
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
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ne nje menyre qe kurre nuk ka qene njejte si me pare,
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
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pastaj gjithashtu eshte rasti se ne ndajme fatin me njeri tjetrin.
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
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Papritmas dhe per here te pare,
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
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mbrojta kolektive, gjeja qe ka dominuar tek ne
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
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meqe koncepti i sigurimit të kombeve tona,
16:39
is no longer enough.
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nuk eshte e mjaftueshme.
16:41
It used to be the case
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Ka qene rasti
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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se në qoftë se fisi ime ishte më e fuqishem se fisi i tyre, unë isha i sigurt;
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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nese vendi im ishte me i fuqishem sesa vendi i tyre, une isha i sigurt;
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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aleanca ime, si NATO, ishte me i fuqishem sesa alenaca e tyre, une isha i sigurt.
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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Nuk eshte ende rasti.
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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Ardhja e nderlidhshmerise
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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dhe e armeve te shkarrimit te mases
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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do te thote se, gjithnje e me shume
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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une ndaj nje fat me armiqte e mi.
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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Ku isha diplomat
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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duke negociuar traktatet te çarmatimit me Bashkimin Sovjetik
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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ne Gjeneve ne 1970,
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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ne patem sukses sespse ne kuptuam
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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qe ndame nje fat me ata.
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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Siguria kolektive nuk eshte e mjaftushme.
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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Paqja ka ardhur ne Irlanden Veriore
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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sepse te dy palet kuptuan se loja e shumatores zero nuk punonte.
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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Ata ndane nje fat me armiqte e tyre.
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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Nje nder barierat me te medha te paqes ne Lindjen e Mesme
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
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eshte se te dy anet, Izraeli dhe, une mendoj, Palestinezet
17:29
do not understand
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nuk kuptojne
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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se ata ndajne nje fat kolektiv.
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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Dhe paparitmas, zonja dhe zoteri,
17:36
what has been the proposition
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cili ka qene propozimi
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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i vizionareve dhe poetve ne kohera
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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sepse dicka duhet te marrim seriozisht
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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si një çështje të politikave publike.
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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Une fillova me nje poemë, Une do te perfundoj me nje.
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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Poema e madhe e John Donne
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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' Mos pyet per ke bien kembanat."
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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Poema quhet " Asnje njeri s'eshte ishull."
17:57
And it goes:
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Dhe thote:
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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" Cdo vdekje e njerezve me ka prekur mua,
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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sepse unë jam i përfshirë në njerëzim,
18:04
send not to ask
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dergo per te mos pyetur
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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per ke bien kembanat,
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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bien per ate."
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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Per John Donne, nje rekomandim i moralitetit.
18:13
For us, I think,
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Per neve, mendoj,
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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pjesë e ekuacionit për mbijetesën tonë.
18:18
Thank you very much.
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Faleminderit shume.
18:20
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paddy Ashdown - DiplomatPaddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation.
Why you should listen
Throughout his career, Paddy Ashdown has moved across the international stage. He served as a Royal Marine and an intelligence officer in MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service of the United Kingdom, before becoming a member of Parliament. In 1988 he became the first leader of the newly formed Liberal Democrat party. After leaving Parlaiment he served as the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Paddy Ashdown | Speaker | TED.com