TEDxBrussels
Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift
Paddy Ashdown: Globalni pomak moći
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Paddy Ashdown tvrdi da živimo u povijesnom trenutku kada se moć mijenja načinima nikad prije viđenim. U očaravajućem govoru na TEDxBruxellesu predstavlja nam glavna obilježja triju velikih globalnih promjena koje on vidi da dolaze.
Paddy Ashdown - Diplomat
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
There's a poem written
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Postoji pjesma koju je napisao
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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veoma poznati engleski pjesnik
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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krajem 19. stoljeća.
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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Govori se da je odjekivala u Churchillovom mozgu
00:24
in the 1930s.
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tijekom 30-ih.
00:26
And the poem goes:
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A pjesma počinje ovako:
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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Ležim na ogoljenom brežuljku u ljetu
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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i potoci pokraj lijeno teku.
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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U daljini osluškujem bubnjara
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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koji me poziva bukom u snovima.
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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Bliz je i dalek, tih je i glasan; govori o prolaznosti života.
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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Dragi su mi prijatelji, a hrana nam je barut,
00:42
soldiers marching,
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mi vojnici marširamo,
00:44
soon to die."
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a uskoro umiremo.
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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Oni koje zanima poezija znaju
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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da je to "Dečko iz Shropshirea" od A.E. Housmana.
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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Ali ono što je Housman shvatio,
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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se također čuje i u Nielsenovim simfonijama,
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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a to je da će duga, topla, šumska ljeta
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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stabilnosti 19. stoljeća
01:03
were coming to a close,
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polako završavati,
01:05
and that we were about to move
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te da će svijet ući
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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u jedno od onih zastrašujućih razdoblja povijesti,
01:09
when power changes.
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a to je mijena moći.
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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A to su uvijek, dame i gospodo, razdoblja
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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koja prate nemiri,
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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a prečesto i prolijevanje krvi.
01:18
And my message for you
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A moja poruka vama
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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je ta da vjerujem da smo osuđeni, tako rečeno,
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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živjeti baš tijekom tih vremena u povijesti
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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kada se temelji, na kojima je
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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već ustanovljena hijerarhija moći, počinju mijenjati
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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i kada se novi izgled svijeta,
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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kao i nove moćne sile svijeta,
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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počinju formirati.
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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A to su - danas to vrlo jasno vidimo -
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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skoro uvijek burna, vrlo teška vremena,
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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i prečesto vrlo krvava vremena.
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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Usput rečeno, to se otprilike događa jedanput u stoljeću.
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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Možemo se neslagati kada se zadnji put dogodilo,
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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ali ono što su predosjećali Housman i Churchill
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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je to da se moć počela prelijevati iz starih naroda,
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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starih sila Europe
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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preko Atlantika u novu mladu silu -
02:00
of the United States of America --
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Sjedinjene Američke Države --
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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čime je počelo američko stoljeće.
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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I, naravno, prelijevati u vakuum
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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u kojem su nekada vladale staromodne europske sile,
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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no one su sada bile izložene dvjema krvavim katastrofama
02:12
of the last century --
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prošlog stoljeća -
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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jednoj u prvom dijelu i jednoj u drugom: dvama svjetskim ratovima.
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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Mao Ce-tung je njih tumačio kao europske građanske ratove,
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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a to je vjerojatno i točniji način njihovog opisivanja.
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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Dame i gospodo,
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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živimo u takvom vremenu.
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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Što se nas ovdje tiče, danas želim pričati o trima čimbenicima.
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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A prvi od njih, zapravo prva dva, su
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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o pomaku u moći.
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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A drugi je o nekoj novoj dimenziji koju želim objasniti,
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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a koja se prije nije pojavila ovako kao što se danas pojavljuje.
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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Ali počnimo s pomacima moći koji se događaju u svijetu.
02:44
And what is happening today
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A ono što se danas događa
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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je, u neku ruku, zastrašujuće
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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jer se prije nikad nije dogodilo.
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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Vidjeli smo lateralne pomake moći -
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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moć Grčke je prenešena Rimu
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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kao i pomaci moći koji su se dogodili
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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tijekom europskih civilzacija,
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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ali sada se događa nešto malo drukčije.
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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Sada moć ne prelazi samo lateralno
03:05
from nation to nation.
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od naroda do naroda.
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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Također se prenosi i vertikalno.
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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Ono što se danas događa je to da je moć koja je bila podložna
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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odgovornosti, vladavini prava,
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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institucijama države,
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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sada u velikoj mjeri prešla na svjetsku pozornicu.
03:21
The globalization of power --
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Globalizacija moći -
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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mi pričamo o globalizaciji tržišta,
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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ali zapravo se radi o globalizaciji prave moći.
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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Na državnoj je razini
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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ta moć podložna odgovornosti,
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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ona je i predmet prava,
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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ali na međunarodnoj pozornici nije tako.
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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Međunarodno-globalna pozornica je sadašnje mjesto prebivanja moći:
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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moć Interneta, moć satelitskog odašiljanja,
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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moć mjenjača novca -
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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ovaj veliki vrtuljak novca
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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stvara 32 puta veću cirkulaciju novca nego što je potrebno
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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za razmjenu koju bi on trebao financirati.
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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Mjenjači novca, nazovimo ih tako,
03:58
the financial speculators
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i financijski špekulatori
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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koji su nas nedavno bacili na koljena
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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omogućuju moć multinacionalnim tvrtkama
04:05
now developing budgets
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koje sada imaju dohodak
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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koji je često veći od onoga srednje velikih država.
04:10
These live in a global space
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One postoje u globalnom prostoru
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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koji je premalo reguliran,
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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koji nije podložan zakonima,
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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i u kojem ljudi imaju odriješene ruke.
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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To odgovara moćnima -
04:22
up to a moment.
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do ovog trenutka.
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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Uvijek je prikladnije onima koji posjeduju najveću moć
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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djelovati u prostoru bez ograničenja,
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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ali lekcija iz povijesti nam govori da, prije ili kasnije,
04:33
unregulated space --
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nereguliran prostor -
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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prostor koji nije podložen zakonima -
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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postane napučen, ne samo stvarima koje ste htjeli
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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kao što su međunarodna trgovina, internet itd.,
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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nego i stvarima koje ne želite -
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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međunarodnim kriminalom i terorizmom.
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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Otkriće 9/11 nam govori
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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to da čak i ako ste najmoćnija država svijeta,
04:54
nevertheless,
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unatoč tomu vas,
04:57
those who inhabit that space can attack you
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oni koji žive u tom prostoru mogu napasti,
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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čak i u najpoznatijem od svih gradova
05:01
one bright September morning.
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jednog sučanog rujanskog jutra.
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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Govori se da je otprilike 60%
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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od 4 mijuna dolara koliko je iskorišteno za financiranje 9/11
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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zapravo prošlo kroz institucije samog trgovinskog centra
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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kojeg su događaji 9/11 uništili.
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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Naši neprijatelji također koriste taj prostor -
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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prostor masovnog tranzita, interneta, satelitskih odašiljatelja
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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kako bi svugdje postavili svoj otrov
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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kojemu je namjera uništenje našeg sustava i naših običaja.
05:24
Sooner or later,
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Prije ili kasnije,
05:26
sooner or later,
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prije ili kasnije,
05:28
the rule of history
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pravilo povijesti nam govori:
05:30
is that where power goes
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"Gdje moć ode
05:32
governance must follow.
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vlast je mora tamo i slijediti."
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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A ako je usitinu tako, a vjerujem da jest,
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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onda je fenonemen našeg vremena -
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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globalizacija moći,
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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a ona za sobom donosi jedan od izazova našeg vremena,
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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a to je postavljanje vlasti u globalni prostor.
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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I mislim da će desetljeća koja su ispred nas
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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zapravo biti manje ili više burna
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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ovisno o tome koliko dobro uspijemo ostvariti taj cilj:
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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donijeti vlast u globalni prostor.
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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Molim da primijetite da ja ne govorim o vladi.
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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Ne govorim o ustanovljenju
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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neke globalne demokratske institucije.
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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Usput, moje osobno stajalište, dame i gospodo,
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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je to da se to vrlo vjerojatno neće postići
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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stvaranjem novih U.N.-ovih agencija.
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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Da nemamo U.N., morali bismo ga izmisliti.
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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Svijet treba međunarodni forum.
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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On treba načine na koje može opravdati međunarodne poteze.
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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Ali kada pričamo o postavljanju vlasti u globalni prostor,
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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moja procjena je da se to neće dogoditi
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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stvaranjem novih U.N.-ovih agencija.
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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To će se zapravo dogoditi preko moćnog združivanja
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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i ustanovljenja sustava sporazuma,
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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sporazumnih dogovora
06:34
to govern that global space.
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kako bi vladali tim globalnim prostorom.
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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A ako pogledate, možete vidjeti da se to događa, da oni počinju nastajati.
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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Svjetska trgovinska organizacija: organizacija temeljena na sporazumima,
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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u potpunosti,
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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i još, dovoljno moćna da najmoćniju državu, Sjedinjene Države,
06:47
to account if necessary.
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smatra odgovornom ako je potrebno.
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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Kyoto: počeci borbe za stvaranjem
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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organizacije temeljene na sporazumima.
06:53
The G20:
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G20:
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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sada znamo da moramo osmisliti instituciju
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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koja može dovesti vlast
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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u financijski prostor zbog financijskog špekuliranja.
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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A to upravo G20 jest, ogranizacija temeljena na sporazumima.
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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No, postoji problem
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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kojemu ćemo se vratiti za minutu,
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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a odnosi na to da ako povežete najmoćnije zajedno
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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kako bi ustanovili pravila u tim organizacijama,
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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kako bi vlašću popunili taj prostor,
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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što se onda dogodi slabima koji su izostavljeni?
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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A to je veliki problem
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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i vratit ćemo se na njega za trenutak.
07:24
So there's my first message,
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I tako dolazimo do moje prve poruke,
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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a ona glasi da ako prolazimo kroz ta burna vremena,
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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više ili manje burno,
07:32
then our success in doing that
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onda naš uspjeh u tome
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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u velikoj mjeri ovisi o našoj mogućnosti
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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da uvedemo razumnu vlast
07:38
to the global space.
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u taj globalni prostor.
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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Pogledajte oko sebe - to se već počinje događati.
07:43
My second point is,
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Moja druga poanta je,
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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a znam da ne trebam pričati publici poput ove
07:47
about such a thing,
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o takvoj stvari,
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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ta da se moć ne premješta samo vertikalno,
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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nego također i horizontalno.
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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Možete se neslagati da je ta priča, o povijesti civilizacije,
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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bila o civilizacijama okupljenim oko mora -
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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prve su bile one na Mediteranu,
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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a novije su one dominirajuće zapadne sile na Atlantiku.
08:07
Well it seems to me
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Pa, meni to izgleda
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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da trenutačno svjedočimo bitnom pomaku moći, široko govoreći,
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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od država okupljenih oko Atlantika
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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prema državama oko tihooceanskog prstena.
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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To prvo počinje s ekonomskom moći,
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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ali tim načinom to uvijek počinje.
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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Već se može primijetiti razvoj vanjskih politika,
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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povećavanje vojnih budžeta
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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koje se događa u rastućim silama svijeta.
08:29
I think actually
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Mislim da se zapravo
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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ne radi toliko o pomaku sa Zapada na Istok;
08:33
something different is happening.
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nešto drukčije se događa.
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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Moja pretpostavka je, koliko god ona vrijedila,
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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da će Sjedinjene Države ostati
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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najmoćnija nacija na Zemlji
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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u sljedećih 10, 15 godina,
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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ali će se kontekst u kojemu ona drži svoju moć
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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sada radikalno promijeniti, zapravo već jest.
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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Izlazimo iz perioda od 50 godina,
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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vrlo neobičnih godina povijesti
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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u kojima smo imali potpuno monopolaran svijet
08:57
in which every compass needle
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u kojemu je svaka igla kompasa,
08:59
for or against
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za ili protiv,
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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morala biti korigirana prema svome položaju u Washingtonu -
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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svijetom je dominarao jedan gorostas.
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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Ali to inače nije tako u povijesti.
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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U stvari, ono što se sada pojavaljuje
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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je više normalniji slučaj u povijesti.
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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Može se uočiti pojavljivanje
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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multipolarnog svijeta.
09:18
Up until now,
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Do danas,
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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Sjedinjene Države su bile dominantno obilježje svijeta.
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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One će ostati najmoćnija država,
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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ali bit će najmoćnija država
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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u sve više multipolarnijem svijetu.
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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A može se uočiti i formiranje alternativnih centara moći -
09:32
in China, of course,
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u Kini, naravno,
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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makar je moj stav taj da uspon Kine prema veličini nije gladak.
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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On će biti dosta neravan
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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kako Kina počinje demokratizirati svoje društvo
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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nakon liberaliziranja svojeg gospodarstva.
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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Ali to je predmet druge rasprave.
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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Primijetite Indiju, Brazil.
09:48
You see increasingly
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Vidite da sve više i više
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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svijet zapravo počinje izgledati, za nas Europljane,
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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više kao Europa u 19. stoljeću.
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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Europa u 19. stoljeću:
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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veliki britanski ministar vanjskih poslova, Lord Canning,
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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je to opisao kao "europski koncert moći".
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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Postojala je ravnoteža, peterostrana ravnoteža.
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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Britanija je uvijek bila za ravnotežu.
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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Ako se Pariz udružio s Berlinom,
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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Britanija se udružila s Bečom i Rimom kako bi stvorila proturavnotežu.
10:13
Now notice,
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Molim da primijetite
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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da su u periodu u kojem je dominirala monopolarnost
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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postojali nepromjenjivi savezi -
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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NATO i Varšavski pakt.
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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Nepromjenjiva polarnost moći
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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je značila nepromjenjive saveze.
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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Ali multipolarnost moći
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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znači pomicanje i mijenjanje saveza.
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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A to je svijet u kojeg ulazimo,
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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u kojemu ćemo sve više i više vidjeti
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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da naši savezi nisu fiksni.
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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Canning, veliki britanski ministar vanjskih poslova je rekao:
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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"Britanija se zalaže za zajednički interest,
10:39
but no common allies."
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ali nema fiksne saveznike."
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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I sve više i više ćemo vidjeti
10:43
that even we in the West
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da ćemo mi na Zapadu
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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morati posegnuti, posegnuti iza
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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ugodnog kruga sila Atlantika
10:49
to make alliances with others
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kako bi stvorili saveze s drugima
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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ako želimo da se stvari pokrenu u svijetu.
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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Primijetite da kada smo otišli u Libiju,
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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nije bilo dovoljno da Zapad sam bude u tome;
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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morali smo uključiti i druge.
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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Ovoga smo puta morali uključiti Arapsku ligu.
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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Moja pretpostavka je da su Irak i Afganistan zadnje situacije
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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kada je Zapad pokušao nešto učiniti samostalno;
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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a nismo u tome uspjeli.
11:10
My guess
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Moja pretpostavka
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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je da se približivamo početku kraja razdoblja od 400 godina -
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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koristim 400 godina jer je toliko prošlo od kraja Osmanskog Carstva -
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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hegemonije od strane zapadnih sila,
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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zapadnih institucija i zapadnih vrijednosti.
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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Znate, da do sada, kada god se Zapadu prohtjelo,
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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mogao je učiniti sve i svašta
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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u bilo kojem kutku svijetu.
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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To više nije tako.
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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Uzimite kao primjer zadnju financijsku krizu
11:35
after the Second World War.
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poslije Drugog svjetskog rata.
11:37
The West got together --
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Zapad se osvijestio -
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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preko Bretton Woodsa, Svjetske banke, Međunarodnog monetarnog fonda -
11:42
the problem solved.
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i problem je bio riješen.
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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No, sada moramo pozvati i druge.
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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Sada moramo stvoriti G20.
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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Sada moramo posegnuti iza udobnog kruga
11:50
of our Western friends.
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naših zapadnih prijatelja.
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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Dopustite da predvidim nešto
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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što je vjerojatno još više iznenađujuće.
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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Predviđam da se približivamo kraju
12:00
of 400 years
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perioda od 400 godina
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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kada je zapadna moć bila dovoljna.
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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Ljudi mi govore: "Kinezi, naravno,
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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oni se nikad neće uključiti
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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u multilateralne mirovne misije širom svijeta.
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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Oh? A zašto se ne bi?
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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Koliko je kineskih vojnika
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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u službi plave beretke, u službi plave zastave,
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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u službi U.N.-a u današnjem svijetu?
12:18
3,700.
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3,700.
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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A koliko je Amerikanaca? 11.
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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Čiji je najveći mornarički kontingent
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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koji se bori s problemom somalskih gusara?
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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Kineski mornarički kontingent.
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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Naravno da su to oni, pa oni su trgovačka nacija.
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
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Oni žele održati morske putove otvorenima.
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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Sve više i više, morat ćemo poslovno surađivai
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
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s ljudima s kojima ne dijelimo vrijednosti,
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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ali s kojima, trenutačno, dijelimo zajedničke interese.
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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Potpuno drukčiji način
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
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gledanja na svijet se sada pojavljuje.
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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A postoji i treći faktor,
12:50
which is totally different.
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koji je sasvim drukčiji.
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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Danas, u našem modernom svijetu,
12:55
because of the Internet,
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zbog Interneta,
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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zbog stvari o kojima su ljudi ovdje pričali,
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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je sve povezano sa svime.
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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Sada smo međusobno ovisni.
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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Danas smo jako povezani,
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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kao nacije, kao individualci
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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na način koji se prije nije dogodio,
13:12
never been the case before.
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kao nikad prije.
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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Međupovezanost država,
13:17
well it's always existed.
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ona je uvijek postojala.
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
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U diplomaciji se radi o upravljanju međupovezanošću država.
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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Ali sada smo međusobno intimno povezani.
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
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Pojavi se svinjska gripa u Mexicu,
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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a postane problem za Charles de Gaulle zračnu luku
13:28
24 hours later.
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24 sata poslije.
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
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Lehman Brothers (fin. agencija) bankrotira, sve se sruši.
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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Požari su u ruskim stepama,
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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a nemiri zbog hrane u Africi.
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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Svi smo mi jako, jako, jako međusobno povezani.
13:42
And what that means
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A to znači
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
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da ideja samostalnog djelovanja države,
13:49
not connected with others,
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bez veze s drugima,
13:51
not working with others,
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bez surađivanja,
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
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više nije održiv prijedlog.
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
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To je zato što djelovanja neke države
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
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nisu ograničena na nju samu,
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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niti je dovoljno da sama država
14:02
to control its own territory,
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kontrolira svoj teritorij
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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zato što događaji izvan države
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
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sada počinju utjecati na ono što se događa u njima.
14:10
I was a young soldier
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Bio sam mladi vojnik
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
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u zadnjem od malih imperijalističkih britanskih ratova.
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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U to vrijeme, obrana moje države
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
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se temeljila na jednim te istim stvarima:
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
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koliko je jaka naša vojska, koliko je jako naše zrakoplovstvo,
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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koliko je jaka naša mornarnica i koliko su jaki naši saveznici.
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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Tako je bilo kada je neprijatelj bio iza zidina.
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
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Sada se neprijatelj nalazi unutar zidina.
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
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Danas, ako želim govoriti o obrani svoje države,
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
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moram razgovarati s ministrom zdravstva
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
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zato što je pandemijska bolest prijetnja mojoj sigurnosti.
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
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Moram razgovarati s ministrom poljoprivrede
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
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jer je dostupnost hrane prijetnja mojoj sigurnosti.
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
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Moram razgovarati s ministrom industrije
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
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zato što osjetljivost naše visoke tehnološke infrastrukture
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
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postaje meta napada naših neprijatelja -
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
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kao što vidimo u virtualnom ratovanju.
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
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Moram pričati s ministrom unutarnjih poslova
14:56
because who has entered my country,
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jer onaj koji je ušao u moju zemlju,
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
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onaj koji živi u nanizanim kućama u napučenijem dijelu grada
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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ima izravan učinak na događaje u mojoj državi -
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
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to smo i vidjeli u Londonu tijekom napada 7/7.
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
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Više nije slučaj da je sigurnost neke države
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
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stvar koji se odnosi samo na njezine vojnike i ministra obrane.
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
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Nego, na njezinu sposobnost da ujedini te ustanove.
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
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A ovo vam govori nešto vrlo važno.
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
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To vam govori to da su, u stvari,
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
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naše vlade koje su vertikalno strukturirane,
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
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i stvorene na ekonomskom modelu industrijske revolucije:
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
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vertikalna hijerarhija, specijalizacija poslova,
15:29
command structures --
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zapovjedni lanac -
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
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zapravo sve strukture pogrešno shvatile.
15:33
You in business know
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Vi u gospodarstvu znate
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
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da je najvažnija struktura danas, dame i gospodo, -
15:37
is the network.
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mreža.
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
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Vaš "mrežni" kapacitet je ono bitno,
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
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kao u vašim vladima tako i izvan njih.
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
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Tako dolazimo do Ashdownovog trećeg zakona.
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
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Ne pitajte me o Ashdownovom prvom i drugom zakonu
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
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jer te još nisam izmislio;
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
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uvijek bolje zvuči kada se radi o trećem zakonu, zar ne?
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
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Ashdownov treći zakon glasi: "U modernom dobu,
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
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gdje je sve povezano sa svime,
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
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najvažnija stvar što možete uraditi,
16:01
is what you can do with others.
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je ono što možete uraditi s drugima."
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
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Najvažniji djelić koji čini vašu hijerarhiju -
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
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bilo da predstavljate vladu, vojnu pukovniju,
16:07
whether you're a business --
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ili poslovnu tvrtku -
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
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su vaše veze s drugima,
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
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vaša sposobnost da radite s drugima.
16:13
You understand that in industry;
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Vi u industriji to razumijete;
16:15
governments don't.
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ali vlade ne.
16:18
But now one final thing.
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A sada, posljednja riječ.
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
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Ako je stvar u tome, dame i gospodo, a jest,
16:23
that we are now locked together
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da smo međusobno povezani
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
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na način sličan nijednom prije toga,
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
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onda je zaključak taj da dijelimo sudbinu sa svima oko nas.
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
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Odjednom i po prvi puta,
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
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zajednička obrana, stvar koja je dominirala nama
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
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kao koncept obrane naših država,
16:39
is no longer enough.
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više ne vrijedi.
16:41
It used to be the case
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Prije je bio scenarij taj
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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da sam bio siguran ako je moje pleme moćnije od njihovog;
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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da sam bio siguran ako je moja država moćnija od njihove;
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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da sam siguran ako je moj savez, kao NATO, moćniji od njihvog saveza.
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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To više ne drži vodu.
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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Pojava međupovezanosti
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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i oružja za masovno uništenje
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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impliciraju, sve više i više,
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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da dijelim sudbinu sa svojim neprijateljem.
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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Kada sam kao diplomat
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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pregovarao o sporazumima o razoružanju sa SSSR-om
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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u Ženevi tijekom 70-ih,
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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uspjeli smo u tome jer smo shvatili
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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da dijelimo sudbinu s njima.
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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Globalna sigurnost nije dovoljna.
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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Mir je došao u Sjevernu Irsku
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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jer su obje strane shvatile da se pat pozicija ne može održati.
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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Dijelili su zajedničku sudbinu s neprijateljima.
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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Jedna od velikih prepreka miru u Bliskom istoku
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
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je ta da obje strane, i Izrael i, mislim, Palestinci
17:29
do not understand
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ne razumiju
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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da zapravo dijele zajedničku sudbinu.
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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I tako, odjednom, dame i gospodo,
17:36
what has been the proposition
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ono što je nekada bio prijedlog
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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vizionara i pjesnika kroz vremena
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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postaje nešto što moramo shvatiti ozbiljno
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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jer to predstavlja opći interes.
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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Počeo sam s pjesmom pa ću tako i završiti.
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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Velika pjesma Johna Donnea.
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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"Ne pitaj kome zvono zvoni."
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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Ime pjesme je "Nijedan čovjek nije otok."
17:57
And it goes:
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Ona glasi ovako:
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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"Smrt svakog čovjeka smanjuje mene,
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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jer sam obuhvaćen u čovječanstvu,
18:04
send not to ask
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i zato nikada ne pitaj
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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kome zvono zvoni;
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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tebi zvoni."
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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Za Johna Donnea, preporuka za moralnost.
18:13
For us, I think,
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Za nas, mislim,
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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dio jednadžbe našeg preživljenja.
18:18
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam najljepša.
18:20
(Applause)
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Pljesak
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paddy Ashdown - DiplomatPaddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation.
Why you should listen
Throughout his career, Paddy Ashdown has moved across the international stage. He served as a Royal Marine and an intelligence officer in MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service of the United Kingdom, before becoming a member of Parliament. In 1988 he became the first leader of the newly formed Liberal Democrat party. After leaving Parlaiment he served as the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Paddy Ashdown | Speaker | TED.com