TEDGlobal 2013
Annette Heuser: The 3 agencies with the power to make or break economies
Annette Heuser: Tre agjensite me fuqine per te fuqizuar ose shkaterruar ekonomite
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Menyra sesi ne i vleresojme ekonomite kombetare eshte plotesisht e gabuar, thote reformatorja e agjensive vleresuese Annette Heuser. Me metoda misterioze dhe te erreta, tre kompanite vleresuese private amerikane zoterojne nje pushtet te pamate nder ekonomite kombetare perreth botes, dhe rezultati mund te jete katastrofik. Por nese ka nje menyre tjeter? Ne kete bisede te guximshme, Heuser ndan vizionin e saj per nje agjensi jofitimprurese qe do te sjelle me shume barazi dhe drejtesi ne kete miks.
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformer
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Annette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Rreth dy vite me pare,
00:12
Almost two years ago,
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00:14
I was driving in my car in Germany,
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po udhetoja me makine ne Gjermani
00:16
and I turned on the radio.
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dhe ndeza radion.
00:19
Europe at the time was in the middle
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Europa ne ate kohe ishte ne mes
00:21
of the Euro crisis,
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te krizes se Euros
00:22
and all the headlines were about European countries
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dhe te gjjithe titujt e lajmeve
ishin per vendet Europiane
ishin per vendet Europiane
00:27
getting downgraded by rating agencies
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te cilat zhvleresoheshin
nga agjensite vleresuese
nga agjensite vleresuese
00:30
in the United States.
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ne Shtetet e Bashkuara.
00:31
I listened and thought to myself,
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Une degjoja dhe mendoja me vete,
00:34
"What are these rating agencies,
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"Cfare jane keto agjensi vleresuese,
00:36
and why is everybody so upset about their work?"
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dhe pse te gjthe jane te merzitur
me punen e tyre?"
me punen e tyre?"
00:39
Well, if you were sitting
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Nese do te ishit ulur
00:41
next to me in the car that day
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ngjitur me mua ate dite
00:43
and would have told me that I would devote
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dhe do te me thoshit se do tju kushtoja
00:45
the next years to trying to reform them,
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vitet e mia te ardhshme mundimit
per t'i reformuar ato,
per t'i reformuar ato,
00:49
obviously I would have called you crazy.
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do t'ju thosha se jeni cmendur.
00:53
But guess what's really crazy:
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Por gjejeni se cfare eshte
me te vertete nje cmenduri:
me te vertete nje cmenduri:
00:55
the way these rating agencies are run.
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menyra sesi veprojne keto agjensi.
00:58
And I would like to explain to you
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Une do te doja t'ju shpjegoj
00:59
not only why it's time to change this,
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jo vetem se pse eshte koha
ta ndryshojme kete,
ta ndryshojme kete,
01:01
but also how we can do it.
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por edhe sesi mund ta bejme kete.
01:04
So let me tell you a little bit
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Keshtu qe me lejoni t'ju tregoj pak
01:06
about what rating agencies really do.
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se cfare bejne ne te vertete
agjensite vleresuese.
agjensite vleresuese.
01:10
As you would read a car magazine
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Ashtu sic do te merrnit te lexoni
nje reviste per makinat
nje reviste per makinat
01:12
before purchasing a new car
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perpara se te bleni nje makine te re,
01:14
or taking a look at a product review
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ose ashtu sic shikoni
kritiken e nje produkti
kritiken e nje produkti
01:16
before deciding which kind of tablet or phone to get,
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perpara se te vendosni se cilen lloj
te tabletes apo te telefonit te bleni,
te tabletes apo te telefonit te bleni,
01:20
investors are reading ratings
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investitoret lexojne vleresimet
01:22
before they decide in which kind of product
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perpara se te vendosin
se ne cilin lloj produkti
se ne cilin lloj produkti
01:25
they are investing their money.
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jane duke investuar parate e tyre.
01:27
A rating can range from a so-called AAA,
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Nje vleresim mund te varioje
nga e quajtura AAA,
nga e quajtura AAA,
01:30
which means it's a top-performing product,
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qe do te thote qe eshte nje produkt
me super-performance
me super-performance
01:33
and it can go down to the level
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dhe mund te shkoje poshte nivelit
01:36
of the so-called BBB-,
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ne ate te quajturn BBB-,
01:39
which means it's a fairly risky investment.
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qe do te thote qe eshte
nje investim shume riskoz.
nje investim shume riskoz.
01:42
Rating agencies are rating companies.
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Agjensite vleresuese jane kompani vleresimi.
01:45
They are rating banks.
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Ato jane banka vleresuese.
01:46
They are rating even financial products
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Ato gjithashtu vleresojne produkte financiare
01:48
like the infamous mortgage-backed securities.
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ashtu si famekeqet
asetet e kredive hipotekore.
asetet e kredive hipotekore.
01:51
But they can also rate countries,
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Por ato gjithashtu
mund te vleresojne vende,
mund te vleresojne vende,
01:54
and these ratings are called sovereign ratings,
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dhe keto vleresime quhen vleresime sovrane,
01:56
and I would like to focus in particular
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dhe une do te doja te fokusohesha
ne vecanti
ne vecanti
01:59
on these sovereign ratings.
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ne keto vleresime sovrane.
02:01
And I can tell, as you're listening to me right now,
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Dhe mund te them se nderkohe
qe ju me degjoni,
qe ju me degjoni,
02:04
you're thinking,
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ju po mendoni,
02:05
so why should I really care about this, right?
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perse duhet ne te vertete
te me interesoje kjo?
te me interesoje kjo?
02:08
Be honest.
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Tregohu i sinqerte.
02:09
Well, ratings affect you.
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Ne te vertete vleresimet ju prekin ju.
02:12
They affect all of us.
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Ata na prekin te gjithe ne.
02:14
If a rating agency rates a country,
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Nese nje agjensi vlereson nje vend.
02:17
it basically assesses and evaluates
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ne thelb ajo nderhyn dhe vlereson
02:20
a country's debt
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borxhet e nje vendi
02:22
and the ability and willingness of a country
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dhe aftesine dhe gadishmerine e nje vendi
02:24
to repay its debt.
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per te ripaguar borxhet e tij.
02:26
So if a country gets downgraded by a rating agency,
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Keshtu qe nese nje vend merr vleresime
renese nga nje agjensi vleresuese,
renese nga nje agjensi vleresuese,
02:29
the country has to pay more
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vendi duhet te paguaj me shume
02:31
in order to borrow money
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ne menyre qe te marre hua para
02:33
on the international markets.
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ne tregjet nderkombetare.
02:35
So it affects you as a citizen and as a taxpayer,
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Keshtu qe te prek ty si qytetar
dhe si taksapagues,
dhe si taksapagues,
02:37
because you and your fellow countrymen
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sepse ti dhe bashkatdhetaret e tu
02:40
have to pony up more in order to borrow.
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duhet te paguani me shume ne menyre
qe te merrni borxh.
qe te merrni borxh.
02:44
But what if a country can't afford to pay more
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Por nese nje vend nuk mund
ta perballoje te paguaje me shume
ta perballoje te paguaje me shume
02:46
because it's maybe too expensive?
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sepse ndoshta eshte shume e shtrenjte?
02:49
Well, then the country has less available
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Ne kete rast vendi ka me pak ne dispozicion
02:52
for other services, like roads, schools, healthcare.
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per sherbime te tjera, si rruget,
shkollat, kujdesin shendetesor.
shkollat, kujdesin shendetesor.
02:56
And this is the reason why you should care,
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Dhe kjo eshte arsyeja
se pse duhet t'ju interesoje
se pse duhet t'ju interesoje
02:58
because sovereign ratings affect everyone.
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sepse vleresimet sovrane
na prekin te gjitheve.
na prekin te gjitheve.
03:01
And that is the reason why I believe
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Dhe kjo eshte arsyeja se pse une besoj
03:03
they should be defined as public goods.
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se ato duhet te vleresohen
si te mira publike.
si te mira publike.
03:06
They should be transparent, accessible,
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Ato duhet te jene transparente,
te arritshme,
te arritshme,
03:09
and available to everyone at no cost.
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dhe te disponueshme per te gjithe
pa asnje kosto.
pa asnje kosto.
03:13
But here's the situation:
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Por ja ku eshte situata:
03:15
the rating agency market is dominated
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tregu i agjensive vleresuese
eshte i dominuar
eshte i dominuar
03:17
by three players and three players only --
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nga tre lojtare dhe vetem nga tre lojtare--
03:20
Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch --
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Standard & Poors, Moody's dhe Fitch --
03:23
and we know whenever there
is a market concentration,
is a market concentration,
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dhe ne e dime se kudo
ku ka nje perqendrim tregu,
ku ka nje perqendrim tregu,
03:26
there is really no competition.
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nuk ka ne te vertete konkurence.
03:28
There is no incentive to improve
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Nuk ka asnje nxitje per te permisuar
03:30
the quality of your product.
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kualitetin e produkteveve te tua.
03:33
And let's face it, the credit rating
agencies have contributed,
agencies have contributed,
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Duhet ta pranojme qe agjensite vleresuese
te kreditit kane kontribuar,
te kreditit kane kontribuar,
03:37
putting the global economy on the brink,
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duke e vendosur ekonomine globale
ne skaje te rrezikshme,
ne skaje te rrezikshme,
03:40
and yet they have to change the way they operate.
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dhe akoma s'e kane ndryshuar
menyren sesi ato operojne.
menyren sesi ato operojne.
03:43
The second point,
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Pika e dyte,
03:45
would you really buy a car
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a do ta blenit nje makine
03:47
just based on the advice of the dealer?
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vetem me keshillen e shitesit?
03:51
Obviously not, right? That would be irresponsible.
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Padyshim jo, apo jo?
Kjo do te ishte e papergjegjshme.
Kjo do te ishte e papergjegjshme.
03:54
But that's actually what's going on
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Por ne te vertete kjo eshte ajo qe ndodh
03:56
in the rating agency sector every single day.
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ne sektorin e agjensive vleresuese cdo dite.
04:00
The customers of these rating agencies,
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Klientet e ketyre agjensive vleresuese,
04:03
like countries or companies,
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si vendet apo kompanite,
04:06
they are paying for their own ratings,
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po paguajne vete per vleresimet e tyre,
04:08
and obviously this is creating
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dhe kjo ne menyre te qarte po krijon
04:10
a conflict of interest.
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nje konflikt interesash.
04:13
The third point is,
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Pika e trete eshte,
04:15
the rating agencies are not really telling us
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agjensite vleresuese nuk po na tregojne
ne te vertete
ne te vertete
04:18
how they are coming up with their ratings,
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sesi dalin ata ne keto vleresime,
04:21
but in this day and age,
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por ne kete kohe qe jetojme,
04:23
you can't even sell a candy bar
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nuk mund te shesesh asnje cokollate
04:25
without listing everything that's inside.
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pa listuar gjithcka qe ajo ka brenda.
04:28
But for ratings, a crucial element of our economy,
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Por per vleresimet, nje element
vendimtar i ekonomise sone,
vendimtar i ekonomise sone,
04:31
we really do not know
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ne ne te vertete nuk e dime
04:33
what all the different ingredients are.
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se cilet jane te gjithe perberesit e ndryshem.
04:36
We are allowing the rating agencies
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Ne po lejojme agjensite vleresuese
04:37
to be intransparent about their work,
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te mos jene transparente per punen e tyre,
04:40
and we need to change this.
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dhe ne duhet ta ndryshojme kete gje.
04:42
I think there is no doubt that the sector
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Une mendoj se nuk ka asnje dyshim se sektori
04:45
needs a complete overhaul,
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ka nevoje per nje riparim kapital
04:46
not just a trimming at the margins.
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jo vetem te nje kufizim te kufijve.
04:49
I think it's time for a bold move.
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Une mendoj se eshte koha
per nje levizje te guximshme.
per nje levizje te guximshme.
04:51
I think it's time to upgrade the system.
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Une mendoj se eshte koha
te permisojme sistemin.
te permisojme sistemin.
04:54
And this is why we at the Bertelsmann Foundation
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Per kete arsye ne Fondacionin Bertelsmann
04:57
have invested a lot of time and effort
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kemi investuar shume kohe dhe perpjekje
05:00
thinking about an alternative for the sector.
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duke menduar per nje alternative
per sektorin.
per sektorin.
05:03
And we have developed the first model
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Dhe kemi zhvilluar modelin e pare
05:06
for a nonprofit rating agency for sovereign risk,
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per nje agjensi vleresuese jofitimprurese
per vendet riskoze,
per vendet riskoze,
05:11
and we call it by its acronym, INCRA.
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dhe e quajme ate me akronimet e tij, INCRA.
05:16
INCRA would make a difference
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INCRA do te beje nje ndryshim
05:17
to the current system
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ne sistemin aktual
05:19
by adding another nonprofit player to the mix.
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duke shtuar nje lojtar tjeter
jofitimprures ne kete miks.
jofitimprures ne kete miks.
05:24
It would be based on a nonprofit model
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Do te bazohet ne nje model jofititmprures
05:27
that would be based on a sustainable endowment.
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qe do te bazohet
ne nje ndihme te qendrueshme.
ne nje ndihme te qendrueshme.
05:31
The endowment would create income
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Kjo ndihme do te krijoje te ardhura
05:33
that would allow us to run the operation,
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qe do te na lejojne te drejtojme operacionin.
05:35
to run the rating agency,
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per te vene ne funksionim
agjensine vleresuese,
agjensine vleresuese,
05:37
and it would also allow us
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dhe do te na lejoje ne
05:39
to make our ratings publicly available.
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te publikojme vleresimet tona.
05:43
But this is not enough to make a difference, right?
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Por kjo nuk eshte mjaftueshem
per te krijuar ndryshim, apo jo?
per te krijuar ndryshim, apo jo?
05:45
INCRA would also be based on
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INCRA gjithashtu do te bazohet
05:47
a very, very clear governance structure
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ne nje strukture qeverisese
shume shume te qarte
shume shume te qarte
05:50
that would avoid any conflict of interest,
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qe do te shmange cdo konflikt interesi,
05:53
and it would include many stakeholders from society.
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dhe do te perfshije
shume aksionere nga shoqeria.
shume aksionere nga shoqeria.
05:58
INCRA would not only be a European
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INCRA nuk do te jete nje agjensi
06:00
or an American rating agency,
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vetem europiane apo amerikane,
06:02
it would be a truly international one,
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ajo do te jete ne te vertete nderkombetare,
06:05
in which, in particular, the emerging economies
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ne te cilen, ekonomite ne rritje ne vecanti,
06:08
would have an equal interest,
voice and representation.
voice and representation.
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do te kene nje interes, ze
dhe prezantim te barabarte.
dhe prezantim te barabarte.
06:13
The second big difference that INCRA would make is
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Ndryshimi i dyte i madh qe do te bej INCRA
06:16
that would it base its sovereign risk assessment
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do te jete ai i bazuar
ne vlersimin e riskut per vendet
ne vlersimin e riskut per vendet
06:19
on a broader set of indicators.
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ne nje baze treguesish me te gjere.
06:22
Think about it that way.
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Mendo ne kete menyre.
06:24
If we conduct a sovereign rating,
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Nese ne realizojme nje vleresim sovran
06:26
we basically take a look at
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ne thelb ne shohim
06:27
the economic soil of a country,
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ne token ekonomike te nje vendi,
06:30
its macroeconomic fundamentals.
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ne bazat makroekonomike.
06:33
But we also have to ask the question,
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Por ne gjithashtu duhet te bejme pyetjen,
06:35
who is cultivating the economic soil
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cili po e kultivon token ekonomike
06:38
of a country, right?
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te nje vendi, apo jo?
06:40
Well, a country has many gardeners,
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Ne te vertete nje vend ka shume kopshtare,
06:42
and one of them is the government,
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dhe njeri prej tyre eshte qeveria,
06:44
so we have to ask the question,
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keshtu qe duhet te bejme pyetjen,
06:46
how is a country governed?
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se si qeveriset nje vend.
06:47
How is it managed?
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Si manaxhohet ai?
06:49
And this is the reason why we have developed
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Kjo eshte arsyeja se pse kemi zhvilluar
06:51
what we call forward-looking indicators.
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ato qe ne i quajme treguesit progresiv.
06:54
These are indicators that give you
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Keto jane indikatore qe te japin ty
06:56
a much better read about
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nje te lexuar me te mire
06:57
the socioeconomic development of a country.
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te zhvillimit ekonomiko-social te nje vendi.
07:01
I hope you would agree it's important for you to know
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Shpresoj qe ju te jeni dakort se eshte
e rendesishme qe te dini nese
e rendesishme qe te dini nese
07:03
if your government is willing to invest
in renewable energy and education.
in renewable energy and education.
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qeveria juaj eshte e gatshme te investoje
ne energjine e rinovueshme dhe edukimin.
ne energjine e rinovueshme dhe edukimin.
07:11
It's important for you to know
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Eshte e rendesishme per ju te dini
07:12
if the government of your country
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nese qeveria e vendit tuaj
07:14
is able to manage a crisis,
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eshte e gatshme te manaxhoje nje krize,
07:16
if the government is finally able to implement
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nese qeveria eshte me ne fund
e afte te implementoje
e afte te implementoje
07:19
the reforms that it's promised.
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reformat qe ka premtuar.
07:23
For example, if INCRA would rate
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Per shembull, nese INCRA
do te mund te vleresonte
do te mund te vleresonte
07:25
South Africa right now,
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Afriken e Jugut ne kete moment,
07:27
of course we would take a very, very close look
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sigurisht qe ne do te shikonim
me shume kujdes
me shume kujdes
07:30
at the youth unemployment of the country,
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papunesine e te rinjve ne vend,
07:33
the highest in the world.
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me e larta ne bote.
07:35
If over 70 percent of a country's population
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Nese mbi 70% e popullsise se vendit
07:38
under the age of 35 is unemployed,
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nen moshen 35 vjec eshte e papunesuar,
07:42
of course this has a huge impact on the economy
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sigurisht qe kjo ka nje impakt
shume te madh ne ekonomi
shume te madh ne ekonomi
07:45
today and even more so in the future.
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sot dhe akoma edhe me shume ne te ardhmen.
07:49
Well, our friends at Moody's,
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Miqte tane tek Moody,
07:52
Standard & Poor's, and Fitch will tell us
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Standart &Poor's dhe Fitch
do te na tregojne
do te na tregojne
07:54
we would take this into account as well.
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se duhet gjithashtu
ta marrim parasysh kete.
ta marrim parasysh kete.
07:57
But guess what? We do not know
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Por e dini cfare? Ne nuk e dime
07:59
exactly how they will take this into account.
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ekzaktesisht sesi ata
do e marrin kete parasysh.
do e marrin kete parasysh.
08:02
And this leads me to the third big difference
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Dhe kjo me drejton
ne ndryshimin e trete te madh
ne ndryshimin e trete te madh
08:04
that INCRA would make.
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qe INCRA do te bente.
08:06
INCRA would not only release its ratings
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INCRA jo vetem
do t'i publikonte vleresimet e saj
do t'i publikonte vleresimet e saj
08:09
but it would also release its indicators
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por gjithashtu
do te publikonte treguesit e saj
do te publikonte treguesit e saj
08:12
and methodology.
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dhe metodologjine.
08:14
So in contrast to the current system,
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Keshtu qe ne kontrast me sistemin aktual
08:16
INCRA would be fully transparent.
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INCRA do te ishte plotesisht transparente.
08:20
So in a nutshell,
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Keshtu ne thelb,
08:21
INCRA would offer an alternative
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INCRA do t'i ofronte nje alternative
08:24
to the current system of
the big three rating agencies
the big three rating agencies
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sistemit aktual te tre agjensive
vleresuese me te medha
vleresuese me te medha
08:27
by adding a new, nonprofit player to the mix
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duke shtuar nje lojtar te ri
jofitimprures ne kete miks
jofitimprures ne kete miks
08:31
that would increase the competition,
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qe do te rriste konkurencen,
08:33
it would increase the transparency of the sector,
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do te rriste transparencen e sektorit,
08:36
and it would also increase the quality.
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dhe gjithashtu do te rriste kualitetin.
08:39
I can tell that sovereign ratings
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Mund tju them se vleresimet sovrane
08:41
may still look to you like this very small piece
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mund t'ju duken akoma
si nje pjese shume e vogel
si nje pjese shume e vogel
08:44
of this very complex global financial world,
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e kesaj bote financiare shume komplekse,
08:48
but I tell you it's a very important one,
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por mund tju them se eshte
nje bote shume e rendesishme,
nje bote shume e rendesishme,
08:51
and a very important one to fix,
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dhe eshte shume e rendesishme
qe te rregullohet,
qe te rregullohet,
08:53
because sovereign ratings affect all of us,
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sepse vleresimet sovrane
na prekin te gjitheve ne,
na prekin te gjitheve ne,
08:56
and they should be addressed and should be defined
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dhe ato duhet te adresohen
dhe duhet te percaktohen
dhe duhet te percaktohen
09:00
as public goods.
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si te mira publike.
09:01
And this is why we are testing our model right now,
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Dhe ja pse ne po e testojme
modelin tone pikerisht tani,
modelin tone pikerisht tani,
09:04
and why we are trying to find out if it can
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dhe perse ne po perpiqemi
te zbulojme nese mundemi
te zbulojme nese mundemi
09:07
bring together a group of able and willing actors
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te sjellim sebashku nje grup lojtaresh
te afte dhe qe deshirojne
te afte dhe qe deshirojne
09:10
to bring INCRA to life.
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te sjellin INCRA ne jete.
09:13
I truly believe building up INCRA
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Une me te vertete besoj se ndertimi i INCRA
09:16
is in everyone's interest,
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eshte ne interesin e gjithsecilit,
09:18
and that we have the unique opportunity right now
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dhe se ne kemi mundesine
unike pikerisht tani
unike pikerisht tani
09:22
to turn INCRA into a cornerstone
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te kthejme INCRA ne nje gur themeli
09:24
of a new, more inclusive financial system.
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te nje sistemi financiar
me te ri dhe gjitheperfshires.
me te ri dhe gjitheperfshires.
09:29
Because for way too long,
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Sepse per nje kohe shume te gjate,
09:31
we have left the big financial players on their own.
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ne i kemi lene lojtaret financiar me vete,
09:35
It's time to give them some company.
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Eshte koha ti bejme atyre pak shoqeri.
09:38
Thank you.
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Ju falemnderit.
09:40
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Annette Heuser - Rating agency reformerAnnette Heuser proposes critical reforms to loosen the iron grip of rating agencies on national credit scores.
Why you should listen
Credit rating agencies, with their power to downgrade credit ratings for entire nations, have come under intense scrutiny and recent events have put their acceptance and transparency into question. What if there was an alternative, free from the limitations and weakened legitimacy that encumbers the big three agencies?
Annette Heuser, executive director of the Washington branch of the German Bertelsmann Foundation, has created a blueprint for a new, non-profit solution to loosen the agencies’ iron grip. The International Nonprofit Credit Rating Agency (INCRA) would conduct unsolicited foreign-risk assessments, redefining sovereign ratings as a public good, and could dramatically shift the financial futures of the world.
Annette Heuser | Speaker | TED.com