TEDxStanford
Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat
Baba Šiv (Baba Shiv): Nekada je dobro prepustiti vozačko mesto
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Tokom godina, istraživanja su ukazala na kontraintuitivnu odliku ljudske prirode: nekada nas prevelika mogućnost odabira čini manje srećnima. Ovo je možda istinito i kada su u pitanju medicinske terapije. Baba Šiv sa nama deli fascinantno istraživanje koje meri zašto odabir otvara vrata sumnji i predlaže da je ustupanje kontrole -- naročito kod pitanja života i smrti -- možda najbolje za nas.
Baba Shiv - Neuroeconomist
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing. Full bio
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to start on a slightly somber note.
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Počeću sa nešto tmurnije strane.
00:19
Two thousand and seven, five years ago,
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Dve hiljade sedme, pre pet godina,
00:23
my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer,
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mojoj ženi je postavljena dijagnoza raka dojke,
00:26
stage IIB.
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IIB faze.
00:29
Now, looking back, the most harrowing
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Sada, gledajući nazad, najstrašniji
00:31
part of that experience
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deo iskustva
00:32
was not just the hospital visits --
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nisu bile samo posete bolnici --
00:34
these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.
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koje su bile izuzetno bolne za moju ženu, što je razumljivo.
00:38
It was not even the initial shock of knowing
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To čak nije ni bio početni šok saznanja
00:39
that she had breast cancer, just 39 years old,
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da je imala rak dojke, sa samo 39 godina,
00:41
absolutely no history of cancer in her family.
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bez ikakve istorije raka u njenoj familiji.
00:46
The most horrifying and agonizing part
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Najužasniji i najmučniji deo
00:49
of the whole experience was we were making
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celog iskustva je bio da smo donosili
00:51
decisions after decisions after decisions
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odluku za odlukom za odlukom
00:53
that were being thrust upon us.
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koje su bacali na nas.
00:55
Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?
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Da li da bude mastektomija? Ili lampektomija?
00:58
Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,
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Da li da bude agresivnija terapija,
01:01
given that it was stage IIB?
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budući da je u IIB fazi?
01:03
With all the side effects?
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Sa svim propratnim pojavama?
01:04
Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?
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Ili da terapija bude manje agresivna?
01:07
And these were being pressed upon us
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Sve ovo je bio pritisak na nas
01:09
by the doctors.
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koji su vršili doktori.
01:12
Now, you could ask this question,
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Sada, možete da se zapitate,
01:13
why were the doctors doing this?
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zašto su doktori ovo činili?
01:15
Now, a simplistic answer would be,
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Pa, pojednostavljen odgovor bi bio,
01:16
the doctors are doing this because they want to protect themselves legally.
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da doktori ovo rade da bi sebe pravno zaštitili.
01:21
I think that is too simplistic.
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Smatram da je to previše pojednostavljeno.
01:23
These are well-meaning doctors,
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Sve su to dobronamerni doktori,
01:24
some of them have gone on to become very good friends.
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od kojih su nam neki postali vrlo dobri prijatelji.
01:26
They probably were simply following the wisdom
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Oni su verovatno samo sledili tu mudrost
01:28
that has come down the ages, this adage that when you're making decisions,
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koja postoji vekovima, tu izreku koja glasi da kada pravite odluke,
01:32
especially decisions of importance,
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naročito one od važnosti,
01:34
it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,
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najbolje je biti glavni, najbolje je držati pod kontrolom,
01:37
it's best to be in the driver's seat.
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najbolje je biti na vozačkom mestu.
01:40
And we were certainly in the driver's seat,
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I mi smo svakako bili na vozačkom mestu,
01:42
making all these decisions, and let me tell you,
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donoseći sve ove odluke, i mogu vam reći,
01:44
if some of you had been there,
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ako je neko od vas bio na tom mestu,
01:46
it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.
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da je to najmučnije i najstrašnije iskustvo.
01:50
Which got me thinking.
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To me je nateralo na razmišljenje.
01:51
I said, is there any validity to
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Rekoh, da li je opravdana
01:53
this whole adage that when you're making decisions,
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cela ova izreka da je, kada odlučujete,
01:56
it's best to take the driver's seat,
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najbolje je biti na vozačkom mestu,
01:59
be in charge, be in control?
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biti glavni, držati pod kontrolom?
02:00
Or are there contexts where we're far better off
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Ili da li postoje situacije kada bi nam bilo mnogo bolje
02:03
taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive?
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na suvozačkom mestu i da poverimo vožnju nekom drugom.
02:07
For example, a trusted financial advisor,
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Na primer, finansijskom savetniku od poverenja
02:08
could be a trusted doctor, etc.
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ili doktoru kome verujete, itd.
02:11
And since I study human decision making,
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I budući da izučavam ljudsku sposobnost donošenja odluka,
02:14
I said, I'm going to run some studies
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rekao sam, izvršiću par istraživanja
02:17
to find some answers.
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kako bih našao neke odgovore.
02:18
And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.
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Danas ću podeliti neka od ovih istraživanja sa vama.
02:20
So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.
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Dakle, zamislite da ste učesnici ovog istraživanja.
02:25
I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is
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Reći ću vam da ćete u ovom istraživanju
02:28
you're going to drink a cup of tea.
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popiti šoljicu čaja.
02:30
If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.
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Ako se pitate zašto, reći ću vam za par sekundi.
02:35
You are going to solve a series of puzzles,
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Rešavaćete niz zagonetki,
02:37
and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.
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i sad ću vam dati primere nekih od tih zagonetki.
02:41
And the more puzzles you solve,
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Što više zagonetki rešite,
02:43
the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.
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veća je šansa da ćete osvojiti neke nagrade.
02:46
Now, why do you have to consume the tea?
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Ali, zašto morate da popijete čaj?
02:48
Why? Because it makes a lot of sense.
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Zašto? Zato što ima smisla.
02:50
In order to solve these puzzles effectively,
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Kako bi pravilno rešili ove zagonetke,
02:53
if you think about it, your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously.
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ako razmislite, vaš um mora biti istovremeno u dva stanja.
02:56
Right? It needs to be alert,
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Je li tako? Mora da bude budan,
02:59
for which caffeine is very good.
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zašta je kofein vrlo dobar.
03:02
Simultaneously, it needs to be calm.
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Istovremeno, mora da bude staložen.
03:05
Not agitated, calm. For which chamomile is very good.
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Ne uzrujan, već staložen. Zašta je kamilica odlična.
03:11
Now comes the between-subjects design,
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Sada nastupa međuispitanički plan,
03:14
the AB design, the AB testing.
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AB plan, ili AB test.
03:15
So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you
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Sada ću vas nasumično rasporediti u
03:17
to one of two groups.
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jednu od dve grupe.
03:19
So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,
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Zamislite da postoji jedna zamišljena linija baš ovde,
03:22
so everyone here will be group A,
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tako da svi ovde će biti u grupi A,
03:25
everyone out here will be group B.
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a svi ovde će biti u grupi B.
03:27
Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is
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Dakle, vama ljudima ovde, ću sada
03:30
I'm going to show you these two teas,
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pokazati ova dva čaja,
03:32
and I'm asking you, I'll go ahead and ask you,
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I sada ću tražiti od vas
03:34
to choose your tea. So you can choose which of the two tea you want.
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da izaberete svoj čaj. Možete da izaberete koji od ova dva želite.
03:37
You can decide, what is your mental state:
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Možete da odlučite, kakvo je vaše umno stanje:
03:39
Okay, I'm going to choose the caffeinated tea,
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Uredu, ja ću izabrati čaj sa kofeinom,
03:41
I'm going to choose the chamomile tea.
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ja ću izabrati čaj od kamilice.
03:43
So you're going to be in charge,
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Na taj način, vi ste glavni,
03:44
you're going to be in control, you're going to be in the driver's seat.
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vi ćete držati pod kontrolom, vi ćete biti na vozačkom mestu.
03:48
You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,
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Vama ću pokazati ova dva čaja,
03:51
but you don't have a choice.
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ali nemate mogućnost odabira.
03:53
I'm going to give you one of these two teas,
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Daću vam jedan od ova dva čaja,
03:55
and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these
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i imajte na umu, izabraću jedan od njih
03:58
two teas at random for you.
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nasumično za vas.
04:00
And you know that.
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I vi to znate.
04:01
So if you think about it, this is an extreme case scenario,
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Dakle ako razmislite, a ovo je ekstremni slučaj,
04:04
because in the real world,
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zato što u stvarnom svetu,
04:05
whenever you are taking passenger's seat,
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kada god ste na suvozačkom mestu,
04:07
very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,
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vrlo često će na vozačkom mestu biti neko kome verujete,
04:10
an expert, etc. So this is an extreme case scenario.
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neko ko je ekspert itd. Dakle ovo je krajni slučaj.
04:14
Now, you're all going to consume the tea.
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Sada ćete svi popiti čaj.
04:19
So imagine that you are taking the tea now,
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Zamislite da sada pijete čaj,
04:21
we'll wait for you to finish the tea.
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sačekaćemo da završite sa čajem.
04:23
We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.
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Daćemo vam dodatnih pet minuta, kako bi sastojak delovao.
04:27
Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.
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Sada ćete imati 30 minuta da rešite 15 zagonetki.
04:32
Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.
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Evo primera zagonetke koju ćete rešavati.
04:35
Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?
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Da li neko iz publike želi da pokuša?
04:38
(Audience: Pulpit.) Baba Shiv: Whoa!
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(Publika: Pulpit prev. Govornica.) Baba Šiv: Oho!
04:40
Okay, that's cool.
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Okej, to je dobro.
04:41
Yeah, so what we do if we had you, who will get the answer,
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Da, dakle ako bi imali Vas, koji će te pogađati odgovor,
04:44
as a participant, we would have calibrated the difficulty level
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kao učesnika, mi bismo podesili težinu
04:48
of the puzzles to your expertise.
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zagonetki na vaš nivo stručnosti.
04:50
Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.
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Zato što želimo da zagonetke budu teške.
04:52
These are tricky puzzles because your first instinct
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One su varljive zagonetke zato što će vam prvo pasti na pamet
04:55
is to say "tulip," and then you have to unstick yourself.
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da kažete ,,lala'', ali ona morate da se odlepite od toga.
04:59
Right? So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise.
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Je li tako? Dakle podešeno je na vaš nivo stručnosti.
05:03
Because we want this to be difficult, and I'll tell you why momentarily.
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Zato što mi želimo da bude teško, a uskoro ću vam reći i zašto.
05:07
Now, here's another example.
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Sada, evo još jednog primera.
05:09
Anyone? It's much more difficult.
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Bilo ko? Sada je mnogo teže.
05:11
(Audience: Embark.) BS: Yeah, wow. Okay.
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(Publika: Embark prev. Ukrcati) Baba Šiv: Da, vau. Okej.
05:14
So, yeah, so this is again difficult.
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Pa da, ovo je opet teško.
05:16
You will say "kambar," then you will have to go, "maker,"
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Reći ćete ,,kambar'', pa ćete pokušati, ,,tvorac'',
05:17
and all that, and then you can unstick yourself.
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i sve to, pa ćete morati da se odlepite.
05:19
Okay, so you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.
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U redu, sada imate 30 minuta da rešite 15 zagonetki.
05:24
Now, the question we're asking here
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Pitanje koje postavljamo ovde
05:26
is in terms of the outcome,
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u smislu ishoda,
05:28
in terms of the number of puzzles solved,
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u smislu broja rešenih zagonetki,
05:30
will you in the driver's seat
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da li ćete vi na mestu vozača
05:33
end up solving more puzzles,
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na kraju rešiti više zagonetki,
05:35
because you are in control, you could decide which tea you will choose,
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zato što imate kontrolu, mogli ste da odaberete čaj,
05:38
or would you be better off,
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ili ćete vama ovde biti bolje,
05:40
in terms of the number of puzzles solved?
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u smislu broja rešenih zagonetki?
05:43
And systemically what we will show,
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I sistemski ćemo pokazati,
05:45
across a series of studies,
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kroz niz istraživanja,
05:47
is that you, the passengers,
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da ćete vi, suvozači,
05:49
even though the tea was picked for you at random,
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iako smo birali čaj umesto vas,
05:53
will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.
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na kraju rešiti više zagonetki nego vi, vozači.
05:57
We also observe another thing,
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Takođe ćemo opaziti još jednu stvar,
06:00
and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,
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a to je da, vi ljudi ovde ne samo da rešavate manje zagonetki,
06:02
you're also putting less juice into the task.
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već i da manje snage ulažete u rešavanje zadatka.
06:05
Less effort, you're less persistent, and so on.
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Manje se trudite, manje ste uporni, i tako dalje.
06:08
How do you know that?
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Kako znamo to?
06:09
Well we have two objective measures.
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Pa, imamo dva objektivna merila.
06:12
One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking
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Prvo predstavlja koliko vremena, u proseku, trošite
06:15
in attempting to solve these puzzles?
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na pokušaje rešavanja zagonetki?
06:17
You will spend less time compared to you.
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Vi ćete trošiti manje vremena nego vi.
06:20
Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these,
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Drugo, imate 30 minuta da rešite sve,
06:22
are you taking the entire 30 minutes, or are you giving up
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da li koristite svih 30 minuta ili se predajete
06:24
before the 30 minutes elapse?
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pre nego što istekne tih 30 minuta?
06:26
You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse compared to you.
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Kod vas je veća verovatnoća da ćete se predati pre isteka 30 minuta nego kod vas.
06:31
So, you're putting in less juice, and therefore the outcome:
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Dakle, manje se trudite, stoga ishod:
06:34
fewer puzzles solved.
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manje rešenih zagonetki.
06:37
Now, that brings us now to, why does this happen?
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To nas dovodi do toga, zašto se ovo dešava?
06:41
And under what situations, when would we see this pattern of results
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I u kojim situacijama možemo videti ovaj obrazac rezultata
06:46
where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes
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gde će suvozač stvoriti bolje, povoljnije ishode
06:50
compared to the driver?
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u poređenju sa vozačem?
06:52
It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.
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Sve ima veze sa nečim što ja zovem INCA.
06:57
It's an acronym that stands for
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To je skraćenica za
06:59
the nature of the feedback you're getting after you've made the decision.
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vrstu povratne informacije koju dobijate posle donošenja odluke.
07:03
So, if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task,
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Razmislite, kao i sa ovim zadatkom sa zagonetkama,
07:06
it could happen in investing in the stock market,
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isto bi se moglo desiti tokom ulaganja u berzu,
07:08
very volatile out there, it could be the medical situation --
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vrlo je promenljivo tamo, ili u medicinskoj situaciji--
07:10
the feedback here is immediate.
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povratna informacija je tu istog trenutka.
07:13
You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.
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Znate rezultate, bilo da je reč o zagonetkama ili ne.
07:17
Right? Second, it is negative.
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Je li tako? Dalje, postoji negativnost.
07:19
Remember, the deck was stacked against you.
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Setite se, šanse su bile okrenute protiv vas.
07:22
In terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.
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Kada je u pitanju težina zagonetki.
07:24
And this can happen in the medical domain.
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I ovo se može desiti u polju medicine.
07:26
For example, very early on in the treatment,
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Na primer, vrlo rano tokom terapije,
07:28
things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.
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stvari i rezultati su loši, pre nego što sve postane pozitivnije.
07:32
Right? It can happen in the stock market.
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Je li tako? To može da se desi na berzi.
07:34
Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback that's also immediate.
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Promenljiva berza, dobijanje negativnih rezultata je takođe trenutno.
07:37
And the feedback in all these cases is concrete.
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I rezultati u svim ovim slučajevima su čvrsti.
07:40
It's not ambiguous; you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.
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Nisu dvosmisleni; vi znate da li ste rešili zagonetku ili ne.
07:43
Now, the added one, apart from this immediacy,
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Dodatno, osim trenutnosti,
07:47
negative, this concreteness,
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negativnosti, ove čvrstine,
07:51
now you have a sense of agency.
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vi sada imate svest o sopstvenoj volji.
07:54
You were responsible for your decision.
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Vi ste bili odgovorni za svoju odluku.
07:57
So what do you do?
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I šta sada radite?
07:59
You focus on the foregone option.
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Vi se usresredite na opciju koju ste odbacili.
08:01
You say, you know what? I should have chosen the other tea.
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Kažete: ,,Znaš šta? Trebalo je da izaberem onaj drugi čaj.''
08:05
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:08
That casts your decision in doubt,
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To baca sumnju na vašu odluku,
08:11
reduces the confidence you have in the decision,
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smanjuje vaše poverenje u odluku,
08:14
reduces the confidence you have in the performance,
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smanjuje poverenje u vaš učinak,
08:16
the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.
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učinak u smislu rešavanja zagonetki.
08:18
And therefore less juice into the task,
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Stoga se manje snage ulaže u zadatak,
08:20
fewer puzzles solved, a less favorable outcome compared to you folks.
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manje se rešavaju zagonetke i ishod je manje povoljan u poređenju sa ljudima ovde.
08:25
And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it.
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I sve ovo može da se desi u oblasti medicine, ako razmislite o tome.
08:28
Right? A patient in the driver's seat, for example.
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Pacijent je na vozačkom sedištu, na primer.
08:30
Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself
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Manje ulaganja, što znači da su on ili ona
08:33
less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,
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lošije fizičke spreme, dok fizička aktivnost ubrzava oporavak,
08:37
which is what is often advocated. You probably wouldn't do that.
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za šta se često zalaže. Vi se verovatno ne bi ponašali tako.
08:41
And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,
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Stoga, postoje vremena kada se suočavate sa INCA-om,
08:46
when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative,
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kada će povratna informacija biti trenutna, loša,
08:50
concrete, and you have the sense of agency,
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čvrsta, i kada imate tu svest o sopstvenoj volji,
08:53
where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat
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kada je mnogo bolje biti na suvozačkom mestu
08:55
and have someone else drive.
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i pustiti nekog drugog da vozi.
08:59
Now, I started off
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Počeo sam
09:00
on the somber note.
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nešto tmurnije.
09:02
I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.
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Želeo bih da završim sa optimističnim tonom.
09:04
It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,
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Prošlo je pet godina, malo više od pet godina,
09:07
and the good news, thank God,
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i dobre su vesti, hvala bogu,
09:09
is that the cancer is still in remission.
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da je rak još uvek u remisiji.
09:14
So it all ends well,
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Tako da se sve završava dobro,
09:16
but one thing I didn't mention was
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ali jednu stvar koju nisam spomenuo je
09:19
that very early on into her treatment,
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da vrlo rano tokom njenog lečenja,
09:22
my wife and I decided that we will take the passenger's seat.
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moja žena i ja smo zauzeli suvozačko mesto.
09:26
And that made so much of a difference
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I to je napravilo toliku razliku
09:28
in terms of the peace of mind that came with that,
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kada je u pitanju duševni mir koji je sa tim i došao,
09:31
we could focus on her recovery.
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da smo mogli da se posvetimo njenom oporavku.
09:33
We let the doctors make all the decisions,
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Pustili smo da doktori donose sve odluke,
09:36
take the driver's seat.
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da budu na mestu vozača.
09:38
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
09:40
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Baba Shiv - NeuroeconomistBaba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing.
Why you should listen
Does a bottle of wine’s price tag price affect the pleasure one experiences in buying and drinking it? Does getting immediate feedback on a choice lead a person to doubt their decision? Does being denied something make people pursue it more hotly while simultaneously liking it less? Over his academic career, Baba Shiv has researched these questions in neuroeconomics, winning awards like the William O’Dell prize for an article that made a significant, long-term contribution to marketing theory and practice. Two of Professor Shiv's publications have received the Citation of Excellence from Emerald Management Reviews, and his research has been been featured on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and on NPR's "Radiolab," as well as in the Financial Times, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal.
A professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Busines , Shiv is the director of the Strategic Marketing Management Executive Program and teaches several popular MBA courses including “The Frinky Science of the Mind” and “Entrepreneurial Ventures in Luxury Markets.” He served as the editor of the Journal of Consumer Research and is also on the editorial boards of the Journal of Consumer Psychology, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Marketing and the Journal of Marketing Research.
Baba Shiv | Speaker | TED.com