TED2014
Randall Munroe: Comics that ask "what if?"
Rendal Manro (Randall Munroe): Stripovi koji pitaju "šta ako?"
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Veb crtač stripova, Rendal Munro, odgovara na jednostavna, "šta ako" pitanja ("šta ako bacite bejzbol lopticu brzinom svetlosti?"), koristeći matematiku, fiziku, logiku i crni humor. U ovom šarmantnom govoru, pitanje čitaoca o Guglovim magacinima podataka vodi Manroa zaobilaznim putevima do urnebesnih, predetaljnih odgovora - u kojima, pssst, možete zapravo naučiti nešto.
Randall Munroe - Cartoonist
Randall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night. Full bio
Randall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, I have a feature on my website where every week
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Imam dodatak na svom vebsajtu
gde svake nedelje
gde svake nedelje
00:15
people submit hypothetical questions
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ljudi postavljaju hipotetička pitanja
00:17
for me to answer,
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na koja treba da odgovorim.
00:18
and I try to answer them using math, science
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Pokušavam da odgovorim na njih koristeći
matematiku, nauku
matematiku, nauku
00:21
and comics.
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i stripove.
00:22
So for example, one person asked,
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Na primer, jedna osoba je pitala:
šta bi se desilo kada biste pokušali
da udarite bejzbol lopticu
da udarite bejzbol lopticu
00:25
what would happen if you tried to hit a baseball
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00:26
pitched at 90 percent of the speed of light?
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bačenu jačinom 90% od brzine svetlosti?
00:29
So I did some calculations.
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Napravio sam neke proračune.
00:32
Now, normally, when an object flies through the air,
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Uglavnom kada objekat leti kroz vazduh,
00:34
the air will flow around the object,
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vazduh će strujati oko njega,
00:36
but in this case, the ball would be going so fast
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ali u ovom slučaju,
lopta će ići toliko brzo
lopta će ići toliko brzo
00:37
that the air molecules wouldn't have time
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da molekuli vazduha neće imati vremena
da se sklone sa puta.
da se sklone sa puta.
00:39
to move out of the way.
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00:41
The ball would smash right into and through them,
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Loptica bi udarala u, ali i kroz njih,
00:44
and the collisions with these air molecules
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i sudar sa tim molekulima vazduha
00:45
would knock away the nitrogen,
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bi istisli azot,
00:47
carbon and hydrogen from the ball,
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ugljenik i vodonik iz loptice,
00:49
fragmenting it off into tiny particles,
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deleći ga na sitne čestice
00:51
and also triggering waves of thermonuclear fusion
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i takođe kidajući talase
termonuklearne fuzije
termonuklearne fuzije
00:53
in the air around it.
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u vazduh oko njega.
00:55
This would result in a flood of x-rays
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Ovo bi rezultiralo poplavom
rendgenskih zraka
rendgenskih zraka
00:57
that would spread out in a bubble
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koji bi se širili u balon
00:59
along with exotic particles,
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zajedno sa egzotičnim česticama,
01:00
plasma inside, centered on the pitcher's mound,
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unutrašnje plazme, centrirane na brdašcu
01:03
and that would move away from the pitcher's mound
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i to bi pomerilo sa brdašca
01:07
slightly faster than the ball.
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malo brže nego loptica.
01:09
Now at this point, about 30 nanoseconds in,
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U tom trenutku, oko 30 nanosekundi
01:12
the home plate is far enough away
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domašni plato je dovoljno udaljen
01:14
that light hasn't had time to reach it,
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da svetlo nije imalo vremena
da ga dostigne
da ga dostigne
01:16
which means the batter
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što znači da udarač
01:17
still sees the pitcher about to throw
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i dalje vidi bacača kako baca
01:20
and has no idea that anything is wrong.
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i nema pojma da je nešto pogrešno.
01:22
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:24
Now, after 70 nanoseconds,
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Nakon 70 nanosekundi
01:27
the ball will reach home plate,
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lopta će dostići domašni plato
01:28
or at least the cloud of expanding plasma
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ili u najmanju ruku oblak rastuće plazme
01:31
that used to be the ball,
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koja je bila lopta
01:33
and it will engulf the bat and the batter
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i progutaće palicu i udarača,
01:37
and the plate and the catcher and the umpire
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i plato i hvatača i sudiju
01:40
and start disintegrating them all
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i početi da ih sve razdvaja
01:43
as it also starts to carry them backward
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kako počinje da ih vraća
01:46
through the backstop, which
also starts to disintegrate.
also starts to disintegrate.
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kroz zaštitnu mrežu, koja takođe
počinje da se razdvaja.
počinje da se razdvaja.
01:50
So if you were watching this whole thing
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Ako gledate sve ovo
01:51
from a hill,
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sa brda
01:53
ideally, far away,
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daleko
videli biste jak svetlosni bljesak
koji bi izbledeo nakon nekoliko sekundi,
koji bi izbledeo nakon nekoliko sekundi,
01:56
what you'd see is a bright flash of light
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01:57
that would fade over a few seconds,
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01:59
followed by a blast wave spreading out,
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praćen eksplozivnim talasom koji se širi
02:01
shredding trees and houses
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sekući drveće i kuće
02:04
as it moves away from the stadium,
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dok se pomera od stadiona,
02:06
and then eventually a mushroom cloud
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a na kraju bi se atomska pečurka
02:09
rising up over the ruined city. (Laughter)
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izdigla iznad uništenog grada.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
02:12
So the Major League Baseball rules
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Pravila Glavne bejzbol lige
02:13
are a little bit hazy,
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su pomalo nejasna
02:16
but — (Laughter) — under rule 6.02 and 5.09,
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ali - (Smeh) - pod pravilom 6.02 i 5.09
02:20
I think that in this situation,
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mislim da bi u toj situaciji
02:22
the batter would be considered hit by pitch
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smatrali da je udarač pogođen dobacivanjem
02:25
and would be eligible to take first base,
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i mogao bi da zauzme prvu bazu
02:27
if it still existed.
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ako bi i dalje postojala.
02:30
So this is the kind of question I answer,
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Ovo je vrsta pitanja na koja odgovaram
02:32
and I get people writing in with
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i ljudi mi pišu
02:34
a lot of other strange questions.
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dosta drugih čudnih pitanja.
02:36
I've had someone write and say,
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Neko mi je pisao govoreći:
02:39
scientifically speaking, what is the best
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"Naučno govoreći, koji je najbolji
02:41
and fastest way to hide a body?
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i najbrži način sakrivanja tela?
02:43
Can you do this one soon?
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Možete li da to učinite uskoro?"
02:45
And I had someone write in,
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Neko je pisao,
02:47
I've had people write in about,
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ljudi su pitali:
02:49
can you prove whether or not you can find love again
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možete li dokazati da li je moguće
pronaći novu ljubav
pronaći novu ljubav
02:51
after your heart's broken?
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nakon slomljenog srca?
02:53
And I've had people send in
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Neki ljudi su slali
02:54
what are clearly homework questions
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pitanja tipična za domaće zadatke
02:56
they're trying to get me to do for them.
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koje su hteli da uradim za njih.
03:00
But one week, a couple months ago,
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Ali jedne nedelje, pre par meseci
03:03
I got a question that was actually about Google.
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dobio sam pitanje vezano za Gugl.
03:06
If all digital data in the world
were stored on punch cards,
were stored on punch cards,
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Ako su svi digitalni podaci smešteni
na bušenoj kartici
na bušenoj kartici
03:09
how big would Google's data warehouse be?
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koliki bi bio Guglov magacin?
03:12
Now, Google's pretty secretive
about their operations,
about their operations,
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Gugl je prilično tajanstven
o svojim operacijama,
o svojim operacijama,
03:15
so no one really knows how much data Google has,
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pa gotovo niko i ne zna
koliko Gugl podataka ima.
koliko Gugl podataka ima.
03:18
and in fact, no one really knows
how many data centers Google has,
how many data centers Google has,
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Zapravo, niko i ne zna koliko
centara podataka ima Gugl,
centara podataka ima Gugl,
03:20
except people at Google itself.
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osim ljudi u Guglu.
03:23
And I've tried, I've met them a few times,
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Sreo sam ih nekoliko puta,
03:24
tried asking them, and they
aren't revealing anything.
aren't revealing anything.
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pokušao da ih pitam,
ali oni ništa ne otkrivaju.
ali oni ništa ne otkrivaju.
03:29
So I decided to try to figure this out myself.
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Stoga sam odlučio da samostalno otkrijem.
03:32
There are a few things that I looked at here.
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Postoji nekoliko stvari
koje sam ovde posmatrao.
koje sam ovde posmatrao.
03:34
I started with money.
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Počeo sam sa novcem.
03:36
Google has to reveal how much they spend,
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Gugl mora da otkrije
koliko su novca potrošili, uopšteno
koliko su novca potrošili, uopšteno
03:38
in general, and that lets you put some caps
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tako možemo da ograničimo
03:40
on how many data centers could they be building,
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koliko centara podataka
bi mogli da izgrade
bi mogli da izgrade
03:44
because a big data center costs
a certain amount of money.
a certain amount of money.
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jer veliki centri podataka
koštaju određenu količinu novca.
koštaju određenu količinu novca.
03:46
And you can also then put a cap on
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Možete ograničiti količinu
03:49
how much of the world hard
drive market are they taking up,
drive market are they taking up,
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tržišta hard diskova koje oni uzimaju,
03:51
which turns out, it's pretty sizable.
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što ispada prilično srazmerno.
03:53
I read a calculation at one point,
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Pročitao sam jednom proračune.
03:55
I think Google has a drive failure
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Mislim da Gugl ima propust sa diskom
03:56
about every minute or two,
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svakih par minuta
04:00
and they just throw out the hard drive
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i samo odbacuju hard disk
04:01
and swap in a new one.
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i dodaju novi.
04:02
So they go through a huge number of them.
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Troše veliki broj njih.
04:05
And so by looking at money,
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Posmatrajući kroz novac
04:06
you can get an idea of how
many of these centers they have.
many of these centers they have.
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možete dobiti ideju koliko mnogo
ovih centara imaju.
ovih centara imaju.
04:08
You can also look at power.
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Možete posmatrati struju.
04:10
You can look at how much electricity they need,
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Pogledajte samo koliko im treba struje,
04:14
because you need a certain amount
of electricity to run the servers,
of electricity to run the servers,
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jer vam treba određena količina
da biste pokrenuli servere,
da biste pokrenuli servere,
04:16
and Google is more efficient than most,
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a Gugl je efikasniji nego većina
04:18
but they still have some basic requirements,
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ali im treba još osnovnih uslova
04:21
and that lets you put a limit
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i to vam omogućava da ograničite
04:23
on the number of servers that they have.
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broj servera koje imaju.
04:25
You can also look at square footage and see
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Možete pogledati kvadraturu i videti,
04:29
of the data centers that you know,
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za neke centre koje znate,
04:31
how big are they?
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koliko su veliki.
04:32
How much room is that?
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Koliko je to prostora?
04:33
How many server racks could you fit in there?
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Koliko servernih čvorova može tamo stati?
04:35
And for some data centers,
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Za neke centre podataka,
04:37
you might get two of these pieces of information.
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možete dobiti dve informacije.
04:39
You know how much they spent,
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Znate koliko troše,
04:41
and they also, say, because they had to contract
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i takođe, jer moraju da ugovore
04:43
with the local government
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sa lokalnom upravom
04:44
to get the power provided,
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kako bi dobili struju,
04:46
you might know what they made a deal to buy,
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mogli biste da znate šta su ugovorili
da kupe,
da kupe,
04:49
so you know how much power it takes.
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pa znate koliko struje to iziskuje.
04:50
Then you can look at the ratios of those numbers,
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Možete videti razmere tih brojeva
04:53
and figure out for a data center
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i shvatiti da za centre podataka
04:54
where you don't have that information,
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gde nemate informacije,
04:56
you can figure out,
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možete otkriti,
04:57
but maybe you only have one of those,
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ali možda imate jednu od ovih,
04:59
you know the square footage,
then you could figure out
then you could figure out
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znate kvadraturu i možete otkriti
05:01
well, maybe the power is proportional.
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da je možda struja proporcionalna.
05:03
And you can do this same thing
with a lot of different quantities,
with a lot of different quantities,
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Možete isto uraditi
sa različitim količinama,
sa različitim količinama,
05:05
you know, with guesses about
the total amount of storage,
the total amount of storage,
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sa pretpostavkama
o maksimalnoj količini smeštanja,
o maksimalnoj količini smeštanja,
05:08
the number of servers, the
number of drives per server,
number of drives per server,
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broju servera, broju
hard diskova po serveru,
hard diskova po serveru,
05:10
and in each case using what you know
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i u svakom sučaju koristeći ono što znate
05:13
to come up with a model that narrows down
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da biste osmislili model koji sužava
05:16
your guesses for the things that you don't know.
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vaše pretpostavke za stvari koje ne znate.
05:18
It's sort of circling around the
number you're trying to get.
number you're trying to get.
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To je donekle kruženje oko broja
koji želite da postignete.
koji želite da postignete.
05:20
And this is a lot of fun.
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I veoma je zabavno.
05:23
The math is not all that advanced,
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To nije toliko napredna matematika,
05:25
and really it's like nothing more than
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i nije ništa više
05:28
solving a sudoku puzzle.
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od rešavanja sudokua.
05:30
So what I did, I went through all of this information,
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Prošao sam kroz sve te informacije,
05:35
spent a day or two researching.
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potrošio dan ili dva istražujući.
05:37
And there are some things I didn't look at.
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Neke stvari nisam promatrao.
05:39
You could always look at the Google
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Možete uvek da gledate Guglove oglase
05:42
recruitment messages that they post.
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za zapošljavanje koje postavljaju.
05:44
That gives you an idea of where they have people.
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To vam daje uvid u to gde imaju ljude.
05:46
Sometimes, when people visit a data center,
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Ponekad, kada ljudi posete centar podataka
05:47
they'll take a cell-cam photo and post it,
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slikaće telefonom i postaviće na internet,
05:49
and they aren't supposed to,
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a ne bi trebalo,
05:51
but you can learn things about
their hardware that way.
their hardware that way.
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ali možete da naučite nešto
o njihovom hardveru na taj način.
o njihovom hardveru na taj način.
05:54
And in fact, you can just
look at pizza delivery drivers.
look at pizza delivery drivers.
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U suštini, možete videti raznosače pica.
05:56
Turns out, they know where all
the Google data centers are,
the Google data centers are,
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Ispada da znaju gde su
svi Guglovi centri podataka,
svi Guglovi centri podataka,
05:59
at least the ones that have people in them.
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barem oni koji imaju ljude tamo.
06:02
But I came up with my estimate,
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Istupio sam sa svojom procenom,
06:04
which I felt pretty good about,
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koju sam smatrao veoma dobrom,
06:06
that was about 10 exabytes of data
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da ima oko 10 eksabajta podataka
06:09
across all of Google's operations,
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širom svih Guglovih operacija,
06:11
and then another maybe five exabytes or so
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a potom ostalih otprilike 5 eksabajta
06:15
of offline storage in tape drives,
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svih oflajn skladišta na strimerima,
06:17
which it turns out Google is
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čiji je Gugl najveći svetski korisnik.
06:18
about the world's largest consumer of.
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06:21
So I came up with this estimate, and this is
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Došao sam do ove procene
06:25
a staggering amount of data.
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i ovo je zapanjujuća količina podataka.
06:26
It's quite a bit more than any other organization
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To je dosta više
od bilo koje druge organizacije
od bilo koje druge organizacije
06:29
in the world has, as far as we know.
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u svetu, koliko mi poznajemo.
06:30
There's a couple of other contenders,
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Postoji par drugih kandidata,
06:32
especially everyone always thinks of the NSA.
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posebno što svako uvek pomisli
na Nacionalnu sigurnosnu agenciju.
na Nacionalnu sigurnosnu agenciju.
06:35
But using some of these same methods,
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Koristeći neke od istih metoda,
06:36
we can look at the NSA's data centers,
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možemo posmatrati centre podataka NSA
06:38
and figure out, you know, we
don't know what's going on there,
don't know what's going on there,
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i otkriti da ne znamo šta se tamo događa.
06:40
but it's pretty clear that their operation
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ali je prilično jasno da njihove operacije
06:43
is not the size of Google's.
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nisu veličine Guglovih.
06:44
Adding all of this up, I came up with
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Sabirajući sve ovo, došao sam
06:46
the other thing that we can answer, which is,
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do druge stvari na koju
možemo odgovoriti, a to je:
možemo odgovoriti, a to je:
06:48
how many punch cards would this take?
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koliko bušenih kartica bi bilo potrebno?
06:50
And so a punch card can hold
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Bušena kartica može da sadrži
06:53
about 80 characters,
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oko 80 karaktera,
06:55
and you can fit about 2,000 or so cards into a box,
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a možete da uglavite oko 2000 kartica
u kutiju
u kutiju
06:58
and you put them in, say,
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i stavite ih, recimo,
07:00
my home region of New England,
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moja regija Nove Engleske,
07:02
it would cover the entire region
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čitava regija bi pokrila dubinu
07:04
up to a depth of a little less than five kilometers,
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do malo manje od 5 kilometara,
07:08
which is about three times deeper
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što je oko 3 puta dublje
07:09
than the glaciers during the last ice age
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od glečera tokom poslednjeg ledenog doba
07:11
about 20,000 years ago.
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pre oko 20 000 godina.
07:14
So this is impractical, but I think
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Ovo je nepraktično, ali mislim
07:16
that's about the best answer I could come up with.
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da je to najbolji odgovor
koji mogu da smislim.
koji mogu da smislim.
07:19
And I posted it on my website. I wrote it up.
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Postavio sam to na svoj vebsajt.
Napisao sam.
Napisao sam.
07:21
And I didn't expect to get an answer from Google,
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Nisam očekivao da dobijem odgovor od Gugla
07:25
because of course they've been so secretive,
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jer naravno, oni su bili
veoma tajanstveni,
veoma tajanstveni,
07:26
they didn't answer of my questions,
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nisu odgovorili na moja pitanja
i stavio sam to i rekao:
i stavio sam to i rekao:
07:28
and so I just put it up and said,
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07:29
well, I guess we'll never know.
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"Pretpostavljam da nikada nećemo saznati."
07:31
But then a little while later
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Nakon nekog vremena
07:33
I got a message, a couple weeks later, from Google,
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dobio sam poruku, par nedelja kasnije
od Gugla,
od Gugla,
07:35
saying, hey, someone here has an envelope for you.
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koja kaže:
"Hej, neko ovde ima kovertu za tebe."
"Hej, neko ovde ima kovertu za tebe."
07:39
So I go and get it, open it up,
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Uzeo sam je i otvorio
07:42
and it's punch cards. (Laughter)
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a unutra su bile bušene kartice.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
07:44
Google-branded punch cards.
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Bušene kartice sa logom Gugla.
07:47
And on these punch cards,
there are a bunch of holes,
there are a bunch of holes,
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Na tim karticama postoji gomila rupica,
07:50
and I said, thank you, thank you,
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i zahvalio sam se.
07:52
okay, so what's on here?
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I šta imamo ovde?
07:53
So I get some software and start reading it,
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Uzeo sam jedan softver
i počeo da ga proučavam,
i počeo da ga proučavam,
07:55
and scan them, and it turns out
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da skeniram, i ispada da je to zagonetka.
07:57
it's a puzzle.
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07:58
There's a bunch of code,
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Postoji gomila kodova.
08:00
and I get some friends to help,
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i zato zovem prijatelje da mi pomognu
08:01
and we crack the code, and then
inside that is another code,
inside that is another code,
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i zajedno krekujemo kod,
a onda je unutra drugi,
a onda je unutra drugi,
08:04
and then there are some equations,
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a zatim su tu neke jednačine,
i rešavamo ih,
i rešavamo ih,
08:05
and then we solve those equations,
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08:06
and then finally out pops a message from Google
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a zatim na kraju iskoči poruka od Gugla
08:10
which is their official answer to my article,
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koja je njihov zvaničan odgovor
na moj članak
na moj članak
08:13
and it said, "No comment."
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i kaže: "Bez komentara."
08:15
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
08:26
And I love calculating these kinds of things,
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Volim da računam ove stvari,
nije da volim da se bavim matematikom.
08:29
and it's not that I love doing the math.
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08:31
I do a lot of math,
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Ima tu dosta matematike,
08:32
but I don't really like math for its own sake.
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ali ne volim matematiku samu po sebi.
08:35
What I love is that it lets you take
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Volim to što vam matematika omogućava
08:37
some things that you know,
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da uzmete neke stvari koje znate
08:39
and just by moving symbols
around on a piece of paper,
around on a piece of paper,
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i samo pomeranjem simbola
na parčetu papira
na parčetu papira
08:43
find out something that you didn't know
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otkrijete nešto što niste znali
08:45
that's very surprising.
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što je veoma iznenađujuće.
08:47
And I have a lot of stupid questions,
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Primam dosta glupih pitanja
08:49
and I love that math gives the power
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i volim što matematika daje snagu
08:51
to answer them sometimes.
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da ih odgovorim ponekad.
08:54
And sometimes not.
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A ponekad ne.
08:55
This is a question I got from a reader,
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Ovo je pitanje koje sam dobio od čitaoca,
08:58
an anonymous reader,
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anonimnog čitaoca,
08:59
and the subject line just said, "Urgent,"
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a u naslovu je pisalo: "Hitno."
09:01
and this was the entire email:
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a ovo je bio čitav mejl:
09:03
"If people had wheels and could fly,
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"Ako bi ljudi imali točkove
i mogli leteti,
i mogli leteti,
09:06
how would we differentiate them from airplanes?"
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kako bismo ih razlikovali od aviona?"
09:09
Urgent. (Laughter)
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Hitno.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
09:11
And I think there are some questions
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Mislim da ima nekih pitanja
09:15
that math just cannot answer.
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na koja matematika ne može da odgovori.
09:17
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
09:20
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Randall Munroe - CartoonistRandall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night.
Why you should listen
One of a small group of professional web cartoonists, math obsessive and chronic explainer Randall Munroe dazzles the online world (and racks up millions of monthly page views) with the meaninglessly-named (and occasionally heartbreaking) webcomic xkcd.
Munroe’s blog What If? specializes in cunning answers to, as the Atlantic put it, "the kinds of of wonderful and fanciful hypotheticals that might arise when the nerdily inclined get together in bars," like “How fast can you hit a speed bump while driving and live?” or “What would happen if a hair dryer with continuous power was turned on and put in an airtight 1x1x1 meter box?” As he told Math Horizons, I really enjoy solving these kinds of things, and it’s a bonus if I realize that I can put boxes around it and make it a comic."
He is also the author of the book Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words.
Randall Munroe | Speaker | TED.com