TED2008
Al Gore: New thinking on the climate crisis
Al Gore: Nova razmišljanja o klimatskim promenama
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U ovoj novoj prezentaciji (premijerno na TED.com), Al Gore nam predstavlja činjenice koje govore o tome da tempo klimatskih promena može biti i gori nego što su to naučnici nedavno predvideli. On nas izaziva da delamo.
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I have given the slide show that I gave here two years ago about 2,000 times.
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Prezentaciju koju sam ovde održao pre dve godine, prikazao sam oko 2000 puta.
00:25
I'm giving a short slide show this morning
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Danas ću vam prikazati kratku prezentaciju
00:30
that I'm giving for the very first time, so --
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i to po prvi put -
00:33
well it's -- I don't want or need to raise the bar,
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ustvari - ja ne želim niti imam potrebu da uvećam pokazatelje;
00:38
I'm actually trying to lower the bar.
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Ja ustavri pokušavam da ih umanjim.
00:39
Because I've cobbled this together
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Sastavio sam ovo
00:44
to try to meet the challenge of this session.
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tako da odgovara ovoj izazovnoj temi.
00:49
And I was reminded by Karen Armstrong's fantastic presentation
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A sjajna prezentacija Karen Armstrong me je podsetila
00:54
that religion really properly understood
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da se kod ispravnog razumevanja religije
01:00
is not about belief, but about behavior.
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ne radi o verovanju, već o ponašanju.
01:03
Perhaps we should say the same thing about optimism.
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Možda bismo isto mogli reći i o optimizmu.
01:07
How dare we be optimistic?
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Kako se usuđujemo da budemo optimistični?
01:11
Optimism is sometimes characterized as a belief, an intellectual posture.
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Za optimizam nekada kažemo da je to uverenje, intelektualni stav.
01:19
As Mahatma Gandhi famously said,
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Kao što je Mahatma Gandi slavno rekao,
01:22
"You must become the change you wish to see in the world."
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"Budi promena koju želiš da vidiš u svetu."
01:25
And the outcome about which
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A ishod u vezi sa kojim
01:27
we wish to be optimistic is not going to be created
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želimo da budemo optimistični neće proizaći
01:32
by the belief alone, except to the extent that the belief
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samo iz verovanja, osim u slučaju kada verovanje
01:37
brings about new behavior. But the word "behavior"
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dovede do novog oblika ponašanja. Ali i reč " ponašanje"
01:43
is also, I think, sometimes misunderstood in this context.
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je prema mom mišljenju u ovom kontekstu, pogrešno shvaćena.
01:47
I'm a big advocate of changing
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Ja sam veliki zagovornik zamene
01:50
the lightbulbs and buying hybrids,
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sijalica i kupovine hibridnih vozila,
01:53
and Tipper and I put 33 solar panels on our house,
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Tiper i ja smo postavili 33 solarne ploče na našu kuću,
01:57
and dug the geothermal wells, and did all of that other stuff.
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i iskopali geotermalne bunare i sve druge stvari.
02:02
But, as important as it is to change the lightbulbs,
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Ali, koliko god da je važno promeniti sijalice,
02:06
it is more important to change the laws.
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važnije je promeniti zakone.
02:08
And when we change our behavior in our daily lives,
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Kada promenimo naše svakodnevno ponašanje,
02:14
we sometimes leave out the citizenship part
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ponekada izostavljamo naše građanske dužnosti
02:17
and the democracy part. In order to be optimistic about this,
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i demokratiju. Da bismo postali optimistični po ovom pitanju,
02:24
we have to become incredibly active as citizens in our democracy.
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moramo da postanemo izuzetno aktivni građani u našoj demokratiji.
02:30
In order to solve the climate crisis,
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Da bismo rešili klimatsku krizu,
02:32
we have to solve the democracy crisis.
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moramo da rešimo demokratsku krizu.
02:35
And we have one.
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A imamo je.
02:37
I have been trying to tell this story for a long time.
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Pokušavam da ispričam ovu priču već dugo.
02:42
I was reminded of that recently, by a woman
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Na to me je nedavno podsetila jedna žena
02:46
who walked past the table I was sitting at,
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koja je zurila u mene,
02:49
just staring at me as she walked past. She was in her 70s,
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prolazeći pored stola za kojim sam sedeo. Bila je u svojim sedamdesetim,
02:53
looked like she had a kind face. I thought nothing of it
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prijatnog lica. Nisam razmišljao o tome
02:57
until I saw from the corner of my eye
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sve dok krajičkom oka nisam primetio
03:00
she was walking from the opposite direction,
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dok mi je prilazila iz suprotnog smera,
03:02
also just staring at me. And so I said, "How do you do?"
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da i dalje zuri u mene. I tako sam rekao, "Kako ste?"
03:06
And she said, "You know, if you dyed your hair black,
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A ona je rekla, " Znate, da ofarbate kosu u crno,
03:09
you would look just like Al Gore." (Laughter)
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izgledali biste isto kao Al Gore." (smeh)
03:19
Many years ago, when I was a young congressman,
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Pre mnogo godina, dok sam još bio mladi kongresmen,
03:21
I spent an awful lot of time dealing with the challenge
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provodio sam mnogo vremena baveći se izazovom
03:25
of nuclear arms control -- the nuclear arms race.
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kontrole nuklearnog oružja - u trci nuklearnog naoružanja.
03:28
And the military historians taught me,
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Tokom tog vremena,
03:31
during that quest, that military conflicts are typically
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vojni istoričari su me naučili da se vojni sukobi dele
03:36
put into three categories: local battles,
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u tri kategorije: lokalne bitke,
03:41
regional or theater wars, and the rare but all-important
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regionalne ili ograničene ratove i retke ali sveobuhvatne
03:46
global, world war -- strategic conflicts.
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globalne, svetske ratove. Strateške sukobe.
03:51
And each level of conflict requires a different allocation of resources,
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A svaki nivo sukoba zahteva drugačiju raspodelu resursa
03:56
a different approach,
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i drugačiji pristup,
03:58
a different organizational model.
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drugačiji organizacioni model.
04:02
Environmental challenges fall into the same three categories,
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Izazovi očuvanja životne sredine spadaju u iste tri kategorije,
04:06
and most of what we think about
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i većina onih o kojima razmišljamo
04:07
are local environmental problems: air pollution, water pollution,
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jesu lokalni problemi životne sredine: zagađenost vazduha, vode,
04:10
hazardous waste dumps. But there are also
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odlaganje opasnog otpada. Ali tu su i
04:14
regional environmental problems, like acid rain
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regionalni problemi životne sredine, poput kiselih kiša
04:17
from the Midwest to the Northeast, and from Western Europe
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od srednjeg zapada do severoistoka, kao i sa zapadne Evrope
04:21
to the Arctic, and from the Midwest
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do Arktika, te od srednjeg zapada
04:25
out the Mississippi into the dead zone of the Gulf of Mexico.
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niz Misisipi do mrtve tačke meksičkog zaliva.
04:28
And there are lots of those. But the climate crisis
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I ima puno takvih primera. Ali klimatska kriza
04:30
is the rare but all-important
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je ne tako čest ali sveobuhvatni
04:32
global, or strategic, conflict.
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globalni, ili strateški konflikt.
04:35
Everything is affected. And we have to organize our response
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Sve je pogođeno. I moramo da organizujemo našu reakciju
04:40
appropriately. We need a worldwide, global mobilization
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na odgovarajući način. Potrebna nam je svetska, globalna mobilizacija
04:46
for renewable energy, conservation, efficiency
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za obnovljivu energiju, očuvanje, korišćenje
04:49
and a global transition to a low-carbon economy.
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i globalni prelaz na nisko ugljeničnu ekonomiju.
04:52
We have work to do. And we can mobilize resources
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To moramo odraditi. I možemo da prikupimo resurse
04:56
and political will. But the political will
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i politički volju. Ali politička volja
05:00
has to be mobilized, in order to mobilize the resources.
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mora biti mobilisana kako bi se mobilisali resursi.
05:03
Let me show you these slides here.
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Pokazaću vam sledeće slajdove.
05:08
I thought I would start with the logo. What's missing here,
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Mislio sam da počnem sa logom. Ono sto nedostaje ovde
05:15
of course, is the North Polar ice cap.
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je, naravno, severni ledeni prekrivač .
05:17
Greenland remains. Twenty-eight years ago, this is what the
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Grendland je ostao. Pre 28 godina, ovako
05:24
polar ice cap -- the North Polar ice cap -- looked like
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je izgledao severni ledeni prekrivač
05:28
at the end of the summer, at the fall equinox.
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na kraju leta za vreme jesenjeg ekvinocija.
05:32
This last fall, I went to the Snow and Ice Data Center
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Prošle jeseni, otišao sam u Centar za obradu podataka o ledu i snegu
05:36
in Boulder, Colorado, and talked to the researchers
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u Bolderu, Kolorado, i razgovarao sa istraživačima
05:39
here in Monterey at the Naval Postgraduate Laboratory.
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ovde u Montereju u postdiplomskoj pomorskoj laboratoriji.
05:43
This is what's happened in the last 28 years.
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Ovo se dešavalo prethodnih 28 godina.
05:47
To put it in perspective, 2005 was the previous record.
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Godina 2005 je bila rekordna.
05:52
Here's what happened last fall
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Evo šta se desilo prošle jeseni
05:55
that has really unnerved the researchers.
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a što je zaista uznemirilo istraživače.
05:58
The North Polar ice cap is the same size geographically --
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Severni ledeni prekrivač je geografski iste veličine -
06:10
doesn't look quite the same size --
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iako ne izgleda tako -
06:11
but it is exactly the same size as the United States,
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ali je iste veličine kao i Sjedinjene Države,
06:15
minus an area roughly equal to the state of Arizona.
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manji za površinu koja je približno iste veličine kao Arizona.
06:18
The amount that disappeared in 2005
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Površina koja je nestala 2005.
06:21
was equivalent to everything east of the Mississippi.
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jednaka je svemu istočno od Misisipija.
06:25
The extra amount that disappeared last fall
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Dodatna površina koja je nestala prošle jeseni
06:29
was equivalent to this much. It comes back in the winter,
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takođe je bila jednaka ovoj. Površina se obnavlja tokom zime,
06:32
but not as permanent ice, as thin ice --
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ali ne kao čvrst, već kao tanak led.
06:36
vulnerable. The amount remaining could be completely gone
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Krhak. Preostala površina može u potpunosti da nestane
06:42
in summer in as little as five years.
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tokom leta u narednih 5 godina.
06:43
That puts a lot of pressure on Greenland.
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To stavlja ogromni pritisak na Grenland.
06:49
Already, around the Arctic Circle --
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Već sada, oko Arktičkog kruga -
06:57
this is a famous village in Alaska. This is a town
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ovo je poznato selo na Aljasci. Ovo je grad
07:01
in Newfoundland. Antarctica. Latest studies from NASA.
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u Njufaundlendu. Antarktik. Najnovija istraživanja NASA -e.
07:10
The amount of a moderate-to-severe snow melting
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Oblast prosečnog do ozbiljnog topljenja snega
07:13
of an area equivalent to the size of California.
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površinski odgovara veličini Kalifornije.
07:17
"They were the best of times,
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"To su bila najbolja vremena,
07:20
they were the worst of times": the most famous opening sentence
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to su bila najgora vremena": najpoznatija uvodna rečenica
07:23
in English literature. I want to share briefly
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engleske književnosti. Želim ukratko da podelim
07:26
a tale of two planets. Earth and Venus
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"Priču o dve planete." Zemlja i Venera
07:29
are exactly the same size. Earth's diameter
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su potpuno iste veličine. Prečnik Zemljine lopte
07:32
is about 400 kilometers larger, but essentially the same size.
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je za oko 400km veći, ali je izvorno iste veličine.
07:37
They have exactly the same amount of carbon.
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Imaju tačno isti procenat ugljenika.
07:39
But the difference is, on Earth, most of the carbon
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Ali razlika je u tome što je na Zemlji većina ugljenika
07:44
has been leeched over time out of the atmosphere,
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vremenom izvučena iz atmosfere,
07:47
deposited in the ground as coal, oil,
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i nataložena u tlo kao ugljen, nafta,
07:51
natural gas, etc. On Venus, most of it
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prirodni gas, itd. Na Veneri, veći deo
07:54
is in the atmosphere. The difference is that our temperature
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je u vazduhu. Razlika je u tome što je naša prosečna temperatura
07:59
is 59 degrees on average. On Venus,
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15 stepeni celzijusa. Venerina je
08:02
it's 855. This is relevant to our current strategy
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457,22 stepena celzijusa. Ovo je važno za našu trenutnu strategiju
08:06
of taking as much carbon out of the ground as quickly as possible,
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izvlačenja što je moguće više ugljenika iz tla, što je brže moguće
08:08
and putting it into the atmosphere.
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i puštanja istog u okolinu.
08:12
It's not because Venus is slightly closer to the Sun.
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Venera nije toplija zato što je malo bliža Suncu.
08:15
It's three times hotter than Mercury,
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Tri puta je toplija od Merkura,
08:17
which is right next to the Sun. Now, briefly,
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koji je odmah do Sunca. Sad, vrlo kratko,
08:20
here's an image you've seen, as one of the only old images,
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ovde je slika koju ste videli među starim slikama,
08:22
but I show it because I want to briefly give you CSI: Climate.
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ali je pokazujem zato što želim ukratko prikazati CSI: Klima.
08:26
The global scientific community says:
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Svetska naučna zajednica kaže,
08:32
man-made global warming pollution, put into the atmosphere,
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od ljudi stvoreno globalno zagrevanje, ispušteno u okolinu,
08:36
thickening this, is trapping more of the outgoing infrared.
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zgušnjavajući ovo, zarobljava više odlazećeg infracrvenog zračenja.
08:38
You all know that. At the last
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To svi znate. U sižeu
08:39
IPCC summary, the scientists wanted to say,
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sa poslednjeg Vladinog panela o klimatskim promenama (IPCC), naučnici su hteli da kažu
08:43
"How certain are you?" They wanted to answer that "99 percent."
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"Koliko ste sigurni?" Želeli su da odgovore "99 procenata."
08:46
The Chinese objected, and so the compromise was
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Kinezi su se pobunili, pa je komrpomisni odgovor glasio
08:48
"more than 90 percent."
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"više od 90 posto. "
08:50
Now, the skeptics say, "Oh, wait a minute,
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Skeptici bi rekli, "Čekaj malo,
08:53
this could be variations in this energy
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moguće da su to varijacije u... u energiji
08:57
coming in from the sun." If that were true,
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koja dolazi od Sunca." Ako bi to bila istina,
09:00
the stratosphere would be heated as well as the
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stratosfera bi bila zagrejana, isto kao i
09:04
lower atmosphere, if it's more coming in.
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niža atmosfera, kad bi više energije dolazilo.
09:07
If it's more being trapped on the way out, then you would
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Ako je više energije zarobljeno na odlasku, onda biste
09:10
expect it to be warmer here and cooler here. Here is the lower atmosphere.
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očekivali da bude toplije ovde, a hladnije ovde. Ovo je niža atmosfera.
09:16
Here's the stratosphere: cooler.
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Ovo je stratosfera: hladnije.
09:19
CSI: Climate.
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CSI: Klima.
09:20
Now, here's the good news. Sixty-eight percent of Americans now believe
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E sad, ovo su dobre vesti. 68 procenata Amerikanaca veruje
09:27
that human activity is responsible
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da je ljudska aktivnost odgovorna
09:30
for global warming. Sixty-nine percent believe that the Earth is heating up
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za globalno zagrevanje. 69 posto veruje da se Zemlja značajno
09:35
in a significant way. There has been progress,
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zagreva. Bilo je napretka,
09:38
but here is the key: when given a list
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ali ovde je poenta: kada se suočite
09:45
of challenges to confront, global warming is still listed at near the bottom.
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sa listom izazova, globalno zagrevanje je i dalje pri dnu.
09:54
What is missing is a sense of urgency.
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Ono što nedostaje je osećaj hitnosti.
09:57
If you agree with the factual analysis,
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Ako se slažete sa analizom činjenica,
10:02
but you don't feel the sense of urgency,
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a nemate osećaj hitnosti,
10:05
where does that leave you?
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gde vas to vodi?
10:06
Well, the Alliance for Climate Protection, which I head
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Pa, Savez za zaštitu klime, koji vodim
10:09
in conjunction with Current TV -- who did this pro bono --
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zajedno sa CurrentTV - koja je to radila besplatno,
10:13
did a worldwide contest to do commercials on how to communicate this.
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sproveo je takmičenje na svetskom nivou za pravljenje reklame na temu kako razgovarati o ovome.
10:17
This is the winner.
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Ovo je pobednik.
11:06
NBC -- I'll show all of the networks here -- the top journalists
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NBC - Pokazaću vam sve TV mreže ovde - vrhunski novinari
11:13
for NBC asked 956 questions in 2007
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NBC-a postavili su 956 pitanja u 2007.
11:17
of the presidential candidates: two of them were about
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predsedničkim kandidatima: od toga, dva
11:20
the climate crisis. ABC: 844 questions, two about the climate crisis.
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su bila u vezi sa klimatskom krizom. ABC: 844 pitanja, dva u vezi sa klimatskom krizom.
11:27
Fox: two. CNN: two. CBS: zero.
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FOX: dva. CNN: dva. CBS: nula.
11:37
From laughs to tears -- this is one of the older
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Od smeha do suza. Ovo je jedna od starijih
11:41
tobacco commercials.
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reklama za cigarete.
11:43
So here's what we're doing.
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Dakle, ovo je ono što činimo.
11:45
This is gasoline consumption in all of these countries. And us.
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Ovo je potrošnja goriva u svim ovim zemljama. I kod nas.
11:55
But it's not just the developed nations.
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Ali nisu u pitanju samo razvijene zemlje.
12:01
The developing countries are now following us
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Zemlje u razvoju nas prate
12:05
and accelerating their pace. And actually,
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i ubrzavaju svoj razvoj. Ustvari,
12:07
their cumulative emissions this year are the equivalent
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njihova zajednička emisija ove godine je jednaka
12:10
to where we were in 1965. And they're catching up
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našoj iz 1965. I stižu nas
12:13
very dramatically. The total concentrations:
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vrlo brzo. Ukupnim koncentracijama:
12:17
by 2025, they will be essentially where we were in 1985.
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do 2025., zapravo će biti tamo gde smo mi bili u 1985.
12:23
If the wealthy countries were completely missing
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Kada bogatih zemalja uopšte ne bi bilo
12:28
from the picture, we would still have this crisis.
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na slici, i dalje bismo imali ovu krizu.
12:31
But we have given to the developing countries
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Ali zemljama u razvoju smo dali
12:35
the technologies and the ways of thinking
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tehnologiju i načine razmišljanja
12:37
that are creating the crisis. This is in Bolivia --
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koji kreiraju krizu. Ovo je u Boliviji.
12:43
over thirty years.
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Tokom 30 godina.
13:05
This is peak fishing in a few seconds. The '60s.
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Ovo je prekomerni ulov ribe. Šezdesete.
13:09
'70s. '80s. '90s. We have to stop this. And the good news is that we can.
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Sedamdesete. Osamdesete. Devedesete. Moramo da zaustavimo ovo. A dobra vest je da možemo.
13:18
We have the technologies.
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Imamo tehnologiju.
13:22
We have to have a unified view of how to go about this:
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Moramo da imamo jedinstven pogled na to kako prići sledećem:
13:27
the struggle against poverty in the world
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borba protiv siromaštva u svetu
13:31
and the challenge of cutting wealthy country emissions,
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i izazov smanjivanja štetne emisije u bogatim zemljama,
13:35
all has a single, very simple solution.
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svi imaju jedno, jednostavno rešenje.
13:39
People say, "What's the solution?" Here it is.
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Ljudi pitaju, "Šta je rešenje?". Ovo.
13:43
Put a price on carbon. We need a CO2 tax, revenue neutral,
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Staviti cenu na ugljenik. Potrebni su nam porezi za ugljendioksid, nezavisni od prihoda,
13:49
to replace taxation on employment, which was invented by Bismarck --
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da zamene porez za nezaposlenost, koji je uveo Bizmark,
13:57
and some things have changed
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a neke stvari su se promenile
13:58
since the 19th century.
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on 19 veka.
13:59
In the poor world, we have to integrate the responses
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U siromašnom svetu, moramo da povežemo odgovor
14:06
to poverty with the solutions to the climate crisis.
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na problem siromaštva sa odgovorom na problem rešenja klimatskih kriza.
14:10
Plans to fight poverty in Uganda
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Planovi za borbu protiv siromaštva u Ugandi
14:13
are mooted, if we do not solve the climate crisis.
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su sporni ako ne rešimo klimatsku krizu.
14:17
But responses can actually make a huge difference
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Rešenja zaista mogu da promene mnogo toga
14:25
in the poor countries. This is a proposal
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u siromašnim zemljama. Ovo je predlog
14:30
that has been talked about a lot in Europe.
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o kojem se mnogo pričalo u Evropi.
14:34
This was from Nature magazine. These are concentrating
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Ovo je iz časopisa Priroda (Nature Magazine). Ovo su koncentrisane
14:38
solar, renewable energy plants, linked in a so-called "supergrid"
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solarne elektrane obnovljive energije, povezane u tzv. supermrežu
14:45
to supply all of the electrical power
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koja obezbeđuje ukupnu električnu energiju
14:48
to Europe, largely from developing countries -- high-voltage DC currents.
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čitavoj Evropi, uglavnom iz zemalja u razvoju. Visokonaponska jednosmerna mreža.
14:56
This is not pie in the sky; this can be done.
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Ovo nisu "kule u oblacima", ovo može da se napravi.
14:59
We need to do it for our own economy.
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Moramo to da napravimo za našu ekonomiju.
15:02
The latest figures show that the old model
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Poslednje cifre pokazuju da stari model
15:05
is not working. There are a lot of great investments
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ne radi. Postoji mnogo dobrih investicija.
15:09
that you can make. If you are investing in tar sands
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Ako uložite u katran pesak, ili
15:13
or shale oil, then you have a portfolio
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naftu iz škriljaca, onda imate portfolio
15:19
that is crammed with sub-prime carbon assets.
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koji je pretrpan trećerazrednim CO2 investicijama.
15:23
And it is based on an old model.
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I zasnovan je na zastarelom modelu.
15:27
Junkies find veins in their toes when the ones
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Narkomani nađu vene na svojim nožnim prstima kada su im one
15:30
in their arms and their legs collapse. Developing tar sands
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na rukama i nogama propale. Razvijanje bitumenskog ulja
15:35
and coal shale is the equivalent. Here are just a few of the investments
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i nafte iz škrljaca je potpuno isto. Evo samo nekoliko investicija
15:41
that I personally think make sense.
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za koje lično mislim da imaju smisla.
15:44
I have a stake in these, so I'll have a disclaimer there.
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Imam deonice u ovima, pa ću se odreći odgovornosti.
15:47
But geothermal, concentrating solar,
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Geotermalna, koncentrisana solarna energija,
15:50
advanced photovoltaics, efficiency and conservation.
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napredni fotonaponski uređaji, efikasnost i očuvanje.
15:57
You've seen this slide before, but there's a change.
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Videli ste ovaj slajd ranije, ali postoji promena.
16:00
The only two countries that didn't ratify
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Jedine dve zemčlje koje nisu ratifikovale (Kjoto sporazum)
16:04
-- and now there's only one. Australia had an election.
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a sad je ostala samo jedna. Australija je imala izbor.
16:09
And there was a campaign in Australia
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I postojala je kampanja u Australiji
16:12
that involved television and Internet and radio commercials
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koja je uključivala televizijsku, radijsku i internet reklamu
16:17
to lift the sense of urgency for the people there.
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za podizanje osećaja nužnosti, među ljudima.
16:19
And we trained 250 people to give the slide show
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I obučili smo 250 ljudi kako da, u svakom gradu, selu, naselju
16:23
in every town and village and city in Australia.
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u Australiji, održe prezentaciju.
16:28
Lot of other things contributed to it,
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Mnogo drugih stvari je tu doprinelo,
16:30
but the new Prime Minister announced that
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ali novi Premijer je najavio da
16:33
his very first priority would be to change Australia's position
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je njegov prioritet promena službenog stava Australije
16:37
on Kyoto, and he has. Now, they came to an awareness
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o Kjotu, a to je i učinio. Istina, osvestili su se delom
16:42
partly because of the horrible drought that they have had.
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i zbog velike suše koja ih je pogodila.
16:46
This is Lake Lanier. My friend Heidi Cullen
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Ovo je jezero Lanier. Moja prijatlejica Hajdi Kalins
16:50
said that if we gave droughts names the way we give hurricanes names,
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rekla je kada bi sušama davali imena kao što to činimo sa uraganima,
16:54
we'd call the one in the southeast now Katrina,
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sadašnja suša na jugoistoku bi se zvala Katrina,
16:57
and we would say it's headed toward Atlanta.
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i rekli bismo da se kreće prema Atlanti.
16:59
We can't wait for the kind of drought
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Ne možemo da čekamo sušu
17:03
Australia had to change our political culture.
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poput one u Australiji da bismo promenili našu političku svest.
17:05
Here's more good news. The cities supporting Kyoto in the U.S.
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Evo još dobrih vesti. Broj gradova u Americi koji podržavaju Kjoto
17:14
are up to 780 -- and I thought I saw one go by there,
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se popeo na 780, čini mi se da sam video jedan kako prolazi,
17:17
just to localize this -- which is good news.
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da to malo lokalizujem. Što je dobra vest.
17:23
Now, to close, we heard a couple of days ago
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Da zaključimo, pre nekoliko dana čuli smo
17:29
about the value of making individual heroism so commonplace
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o značaju pretvaranja pojedinačnog herojstva u nešto toliko
17:38
that it becomes banal or routine.
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uobičajeno, da postane stvar rutine.
17:41
What we need is another hero generation. Those of us who are alive
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Ono što nam je potrebno je još jedna herojska generacija. Oni od nas koji živimo
17:50
in the United States of America
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u Sjedinjenim državama
17:52
today especially, but also the rest of the world,
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naročito danas, ali i ostatak sveta,
17:55
have to somehow understand that history
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nekako moramo shvatiti da nam je istorija
18:00
has presented us with a choice -- just as Jill [Bolte] Taylor was figuring out
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dala izbor - baš kao što je Džil Bolt Tejlor shvatila
18:10
how to save her life while she was distracted
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kako da spasi svoj život dok ju je ometalo
18:15
by the amazing experience that she was going through.
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zadivljujuće iskustvo kroz koje je prolazila.
18:19
We now have a culture of distraction.
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Mi danas imamo kulturu koja nas ometa.
18:22
But we have a planetary emergency.
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Ali imamo i planetarnu uzbunu.
18:27
And we have to find a way to create,
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I moramo da nađemo način da kreiramo,
18:31
in the generation of those alive today, a sense of generational mission.
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u ovoj generaciji koja živi danas, osećaj generacijske misije.
18:37
I wish I could find the words to convey this.
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Voleo bih da nađem reči da pojasnim ovo.
18:43
This was another hero generation
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Ovo je još jedna herojska generacija
18:45
that brought democracy to the planet.
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koja je donela demokratiju na ovu planetu.
18:48
Another that ended slavery. And that gave women the right to vote.
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Još jedna koja je prekinula ropstvo. I koja je dala ženama pravo glasa.
18:55
We can do this. Don't tell me that we don't have the capacity to do it.
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Mi možemo da učinimo ovo. Nemojte da mi kažete da nemamo kapaciteta za to.
19:02
If we had just one week's worth of what we spend on the Iraq War,
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Da imamo samo onoliko koliko potrošimo za nedelju dana na rat u Iraku,
19:06
we could be well on the way to solving this challenge.
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bili bismo na dobrom putu da rešimo ovaj izazov.
19:09
We have the capacity to do it.
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Imamo snage za to.
19:19
One final point: I'm optimistic, because I believe
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Zaključna reč. Ja sam optimističan, zato što verujem
19:32
we have the capacity, at moments of great challenge,
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da imamo kapaciteta, u trenutku velikog izazova,
19:36
to set aside the causes of distraction and rise to the challenge
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da stavimo sa strane razloge ometanja pažnje i da se suprotstavimo izazovu
19:42
that history is presenting to us.
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koji nam istorija postavlja.
19:47
Sometimes I hear people respond to the disturbing facts of the climate crisis
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Ponekad čujem ljude kako na uznemirujuće činjenice o klimatskoj krizi
19:59
by saying, "Oh, this is so terrible.
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kažu, "O, to je tako strašno.
20:01
What a burden we have." I would like to ask you
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Kakav teret imamo." Upitao bih vas
20:07
to reframe that. How many generations
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da to preoblikujemo. Koliko generacija
20:11
in all of human history have had the opportunity
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u ljudskoj istoriji je imalo priliku
20:16
to rise to a challenge that is worthy of our best efforts?
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da prihvati izazov koji je vredan naših najvećih napora?
20:25
A challenge that can pull from us
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Izazov koji iz nas može da izvuče
20:31
more than we knew we could do? I think we ought to approach
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više nego što smo znali da možemo? Mislim da bismo trebali pristupiti
20:39
this challenge with a sense of profound joy
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ovom izazovu sa osećajem duboke radosti
20:43
and gratitude that we are the generation
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i zahvalnosti što smo mi generacija
20:48
about which, a thousand years from now,
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koju će, za hiljadu godina od danas,
20:52
philharmonic orchestras and poets and singers will celebrate
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filharmonijski orkestri i pesnici i pevači, da slave
21:01
by saying, they were the ones that found it within themselves
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govoreći, oni su bili ti koji su u sebi pronašli
21:08
to solve this crisis and lay the basis
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ono što je trebalo da se kriza reši i postavili temelje
21:13
for a bright and optimistic human future.
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za vedriju i optimističniju budućnost čovečanstva.
21:15
Let's do that. Thank you very much.
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Hajde da to uradimo. Mnogo vam hvala.
21:42
Chris Anderson: For so many people at TED, there is deep pain
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Kris Anderson: Za mnoge ljude u TEDu, postoji duboki bol
21:48
that basically a design issue
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da je u suštini pitanje dizajna - na kraju krajeva,
21:50
on a voting form --
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dizajn glasačkih listića -
21:52
one bad design issue meant that your voice wasn't being heard
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jedan loš dizajn je značio da se vaš glas nije čuo
21:56
like that in the last eight years in a position
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u poslednjih osam godina na poziciji
21:57
where you could make these things come true.
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gde ste mogli da ostvarite ove stvari.
21:59
That hurts.
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To boli.
22:01
Al Gore: You have no idea. (Laughter)
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Al Gor: Ni ne znate koliko. (smeh)
22:11
CA: When you look at what the leading candidates
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KA: Kada pogledate šta vodeći kandidati
22:12
in your own party are doing now -- I mean, there's --
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u vašoj stranci trenutno čine - mislim -
22:14
are you excited by their plans on global warming?
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jeste li uzbuđeni njihovim planovima oko globalnog zagrevanja?
22:28
AG: The answer to the question is hard for me
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AG: Teško mi je odgovoriti na ovo pitanje,
22:32
because, on the one hand, I think that
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jer, sa jedne strane, mislim da
22:36
we should feel really great about the fact
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bi trebalo da se osećamo sjajno zbog činjenice
22:41
that the Republican nominee -- certain nominee --
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da Republikanski kandidati - određeni kandidat -
22:47
John McCain, and both of the finalists
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Džon Mekkejn, i oboje finalista
22:51
for the Democratic nomination -- all three have a very different
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demokratske partije - svo troje imaju različitu
22:56
and forward-leaning position
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i naprednu poziciju
22:58
on the climate crisis. All three have offered leadership,
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o klimatskoj krizi. Svo troje je ponudilo vođstvo,
23:03
and all three are very different from the approach taken
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i svo troje imaju različit pristup od pristupa
23:07
by the current administration. And I think
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trenutne vlade. Takođe mislim
23:10
that all three have also been responsible in
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da je svo troje bilo odgovorno
23:14
putting forward plans and proposals. But the campaign dialogue that --
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u davanju predloga i planova. Ali dijalog u kampanji -
23:25
as illustrated by the questions --
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ilustrovan ovim pitanjima -
23:26
that was put together by the
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koji je sastavila
23:27
League of Conservation Voters, by the way, the analysis of all the questions --
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Liga glasača za očuvanje prirode, usput, analiza pitanja,
23:30
and, by the way, the debates have all been
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i, usput, sve rasprave je
23:34
sponsored by something that goes by the Orwellian label,
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sponzorisalo nešto sa orvelovskim nazivom:
23:36
"Clean Coal." Has anybody noticed that?
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"Čist ugljen." Da li je to neko primetio?
23:40
Every single debate has been sponsored by "Clean Coal."
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Sve i jednu raspravu je sponzorisao "Čist ugljen."
23:44
"Now, even lower emissions!"
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"Sada još manja emisija!"
23:46
The richness and fullness of the dialogue
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bogatstvo i potpunost dijaloga
23:50
in our democracy has not laid the basis
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u našoj demokratiji nije postavilo temelje
23:53
for the kind of bold initiative that is really needed.
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za vrstu hrabre inicijative koja nam je zaista potrebna.
23:57
So they're saying the right things and they may --
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Dakle, oni govore prave stvari i možda će -
24:00
whichever of them is elected -- may do the right thing,
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ko god bio izabran - uraditi pravu stvar,
24:03
but let me tell you: when I came back from Kyoto
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ali da vam kažem: kada sam se vratio iz Kjotoa
24:07
in 1997, with a feeling of great happiness
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1997., sa osećajem velike radosti
24:14
that we'd gotten that breakthrough there,
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da smo tamo napravili prekretnicu,
24:16
and then confronted the United States Senate,
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i kada sam se suočio sa američkim senatom,
24:18
only one out of 100 senators was willing to vote
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samo jedan od 100 senatora je bio rad da izglasa
24:22
to confirm, to ratify that treaty. Whatever the candidates say
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ratifikaciju sporazuma. Štagod kandidati rekli
24:29
has to be laid alongside what the people say.
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to mora biti u skladu sa onim što narod kaže.
24:34
This challenge is part of the fabric
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Ovaj izazov je utkan
24:38
of our whole civilization.
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u čitavu našu civilizaciju.
24:40
CO2 is the exhaling breath of our civilization, literally.
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CO2 je ono što naša civilizacija izdiše, bukvalno.
24:44
And now we mechanized that process. Changing that pattern
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I sad smo mehanizovali taj proces. Menjanje te navike
24:47
requires a scope, a scale, a speed of change
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zahteva opsežnu, veliku i brzu promenu
24:54
that is beyond what we have done in the past.
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koja je izvan svega onoga što smo učinili u prošlosti.
24:57
So that's why I began by saying,
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Zato sam počeo rekavši,
24:59
be optimistic in what you do, but be an active citizen.
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budite optimistični u onome što radite, ali budite aktivni građanin.
25:06
Demand -- change the light bulbs,
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Zahtevajte - zamenite sijalice,
25:08
but change the laws. Change the global treaties.
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ali menjajte i zakone. Promenite globalne sporazume.
25:11
We have to speak up. We have to solve this democracy -- this --
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Moramo biti glasniji. Moramo rešiti ovu demokratsku - ovu -
25:18
We have sclerosis in our democracy. And we have to change that.
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Imamo sklerozu u našoj demokratiji. I moramo to da promenimo.
25:25
Use the Internet. Go on the Internet.
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Koristite internet. Idite ne internet.
25:26
Connect with people. Become very active as citizens.
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Povežite se sa ljudima. Postanite vrlo aktivni građani.
25:30
Have a moratorium -- we shouldn't
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Napravimo moratorijum - ne bismo trebali
25:32
have any new coal-fired generating plants
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imati nikakvih novih elektrana na ugljen
25:34
that aren't able to capture and store CO2, which means we have to
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koje nisu sposobne da skupe i pohrane CO2. Što znači da moramo
25:39
quickly build these renewable sources.
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brzo izgraditi obnovljive izvore.
25:41
Now, nobody is talking on that scale. But I do believe
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E sada, niko ne govori o tome na tom nivou. Ali ja verujem
25:45
that between now and November, it is possible.
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da je to moguće, od danas do novembra.
25:49
This Alliance for Climate Protection
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Alijansa za zaštitu klime
25:51
is going to launch a nationwide campaign --
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će pokrenuti nacionalnu kampanju -
25:54
grassroots mobilization, television ads, Internet ads,
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široku mobilizaciju, tv reklame, internet oglasi,
25:57
radio, newspaper -- with partnerships with everybody
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radio, novine - u sradnji sa svima
26:00
from the Girl Scouts to the hunters and fishermen.
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od izviđača, lovaca i ribara.
26:03
We need help. We need help.
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Potrebna nam je pomoć. Potrebna nam je pomoć.
26:07
CA: In terms of your own personal role going forward,
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KA: U smislu vaše lične uloge u budućnosti,
26:11
Al, is there something more than that
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Al, da li postoji nešto drugo, što biste
26:13
you would like to be doing?
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voleli da radite?
26:14
AG: I have prayed that I would be able to find the answer
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AG: Molio sam se da budem spreman da odgovorim
26:22
to that question. What can I do?
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na to pitanje. Šta mogu učiniti?
26:27
Buckminster Fuller once wrote, "If the future
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Bakminster Fuler je napisao, "Da budućnost
26:31
of all human civilization depended on me, what would I do?
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ljudske civilizacije zavisi od mene, šta bih učinio?
26:36
How would I be?" It does depend on all of us,
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kakav bih bio?" To zavisi od svih nas,
26:41
but again, not just with the light bulbs.
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ali opet, ne samo o sijalicama.
26:43
We, most of us here, are Americans. We have a democracy.
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Mi, većina nas ovde, smo Amerikanci. Mi imamo demokratiju.
26:51
We can change things, but we have to actively change.
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Možemo da promenimo stanje, ali moramo aktivno da ga menjamo.
26:57
What's needed really is a higher level of consciousness.
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Ono što je potrebno je ustvari viši nivo svesnosti.
27:02
And that's hard to --
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A to je teško -
27:04
that's hard to create -- but it is coming.
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teško kreirati - ali i to se menja.
27:08
There's an old African proverb that some of you know
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Postoji stara afrička poslovica za koju su neki od vas čuli
27:11
that says, "If you want to go quickly, go alone;
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koja kaže, "Ako želiš da brzo napreduješ, idi sam;
27:15
if you want to go far, go together." We have to go far, quickly.
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ako želiš daleko da stigneš, idi u društvu." Moramo ići daleko brzo.
27:23
So we have to have a change in consciousness.
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Dakle, moramo imati promenu svesti.
27:27
A change in commitment. A new sense of urgency.
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Promenu onoga što nam je važno. Novi osećaj hitnosti.
27:31
A new appreciation for the privilege
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Novi osećaj zahvalnosti za privilegiju
27:34
that we have of undertaking this challenge.
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koju imamo u suočavanju sa ovim izazovom.
27:37
CA: Al Gore, thank you so much for coming to TED.
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KA: Al Gor, hvala vam mnogo za dolazak na TED.
27:41
AG: Thank you. Thank you very much.
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AG: Hvala vama. Mnogo vam hvala.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com