ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.

Why you should listen

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.

His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.

Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.

Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>

More profile about the speaker
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxMidAtlantic

Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of simple stories

Filmed:
478,342 views

Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
- Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:36
I was told to come here
and tell you all stories故事,
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我被叫来和大家分享趣闻轶事,
00:39
but what I'd like to do is instead代替
tell you why I'm suspicious可疑 of stories故事,
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而我想说的是,
为什么我不相信趣闻轶事,
00:43
why stories故事 make me nervous紧张.
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因为它们让我紧张。
00:45
In fact事实, the more inspired启发
a story故事 makes品牌 me feel,
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实际上,这种故事越激动人心,
00:49
very often经常, the more nervous紧张 I get.
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很多时候,我就会越紧张。
00:51
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
00:52
So the best最好 stories故事
are often经常 the trickiest最棘手 ones那些.
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最好的故事往往都带有欺骗性。
00:55
The good and bad things about stories故事
is that they are a kind of filter过滤.
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它们就像过滤器,
有优点,也有缺点。
00:58
They take a lot of information信息,
and they leave离开 some of it out,
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在获取大量信息时,
它们会过滤掉无用的部分,
01:01
and they keep some of it in.
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留下有用的内容。
01:03
But the thing about this filter过滤 is
that it always leaves树叶 the same相同 things in.
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然而这个过滤器有个问题,
它总是保留相同的信息。
01:07
You're always left
with the same相同 few少数 simple简单 stories故事.
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结果就是我们总是看到几类
简单相似的故事。
01:10
There is the old saying
that just about every一切 story故事
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有句老话说:所有的故事
都可以总结为
01:13
can be summed总结 up
as "a stranger陌生人 came来了 to town."
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“镇上来了一个陌生人。”
01:16
There is a book by Christopher克里斯托弗 Booker布克,
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克里斯朵夫·布克写过一本书,
01:18
where he claims索赔 there are really
just seven types类型 of stories故事.
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他认为故事一共只有7种类型:
魔鬼妖怪,白手起家,追求梦想,
01:21
There is monster怪物, rags碎布 to riches富有, quest寻求,
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01:23
voyage航程 and return返回,
comedy喜剧, tragedy悲剧, rebirth新生.
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探险凯旋,喜剧,悲剧以及重生。
01:27
You don't have to agree同意
with that list名单 exactly究竟,
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你不必完全认同这份清单,
01:30
but the point is this:
if you think in terms条款 of stories故事,
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但重点是:如果让你
思考一下故事的种类,
01:33
you're telling告诉 yourself你自己 the same相同 things
over and over again.
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你也会再三重复相同的东西。
01:37
There was a study研究 doneDONE,
we asked some people-人--
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我们做了一项研究,
进行了一次问卷调查——
01:46
people were asked to describe描述 their lives生活.
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请人们描述一下自己的生活。
01:49
When asked to describe描述 their lives生活,
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当问到这个问题时,
01:51
what is interesting有趣
is how few少数 people said "mess食堂".
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有趣的是居然没几个人说“一团糟”。
01:54
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:56
It's probably大概 the best最好 answer回答,
I don't mean that in a bad way.
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其实这才是最佳答案,
我决无贬低之意。
02:00
"Mess食堂" can be liberating解放,
"mess食堂" can be empowering授权,
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“一团糟”会让人
感到解脱,感到自由,
02:02
"mess食堂" can be a way
of drawing画画 upon multiple strengths优势.
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它也许还能汇聚多种力量。
02:06
But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey旅程."
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但大家最想说的是:
“我的人生是一个旅程。”
02:10
51% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story故事.
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有51%的人想把
自己的人生变成一个故事。
02:15
11% said, "My life is a battle战斗."
Again, that is a kind of story故事.
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11%的人认为,“我的人生是一场战斗。”
这又是一种故事。
02:20
8% said, "My life is a novel小说."
5% said, "My life is a play."
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8%认为,“我的人生是一部小说。”
5%说,“我的人生是一场戏剧。”
02:24
I don't think anyone任何人 said,
"My life is a reality现实 TV电视 show显示."
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我相信不会有人说,
“我的人生是一场电视真人秀。”
02:27
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:28
But again, we're imposing威风 order订购
on the mess食堂 we observe,
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但是我们硬是把常见的混乱秩序化,
02:32
and it's taking服用 the same相同 patterns模式,
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形成相同的模式,
02:34
and the thing is when something
is in the form形成 of a story故事,
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而当事情以故事的形式出现时,
02:37
often经常, we remember记得 it when we shouldn't不能.
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我们总是记得特别清楚。
02:39
So how many许多 of you know the story故事
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你们中有多少人记得
02:41
about George乔治 Washington华盛顿
and the cherry樱桃 tree?
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乔治·华盛顿和樱桃树的故事?
02:44
It's not obvious明显 that is
exactly究竟 what happened发生.
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而真相也许并非如此。
02:46
The story故事 of Paul保罗 Revere尊敬, it's not obvious明显
that that is exactly究竟 the way it happened发生.
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还有保罗·雷维尔的故事,
事实也并非如此。
02:51
So again, we should be
suspicious可疑 of stories故事.
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所以,我们应该对故事持怀疑态度。
02:55
We're biologically生物 programmed程序
to respond响应 to them.
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本能使我们对它们作出反应。
02:58
They contain包含 a lot of information信息.
They have social社会 power功率.
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它们涵盖的内容丰富,
有巨大的社会影响力,
03:01
They connect us to other people.
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让我们与他人息息相关。
03:03
So they are like a candy糖果 that we're fed美联储
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当聆听政治信息,或阅读小说时,
03:05
when we consume消耗 political政治 information信息,
when we read novels小说.
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这些故事好似我们口中的糖果;
03:09
When we read non-fiction非小说类 books图书,
we're really being存在 fed美联储 stories故事.
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而当阅读非小说类文献时,
我们实际上是在阅读故事。
03:12
Non-fiction非小说 is, in a sense,
the new fiction小说.
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非小说类读物,从某种意义上讲
已成为了新式的小说。
03:15
The book may可能 happen发生 to say true真正 things,
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这些书可能讲述的是事实,
03:18
but again, everything's一切的 taking服用
the same相同 form形成 of these stories故事.
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但不得不再次强调,
这一切都在以故事的形式出现。
03:22
So what are the problems问题
of relying依托 too heavily严重 on stories故事?
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那么过分依赖故事有什么问题吗?
03:26
You view视图 your life like this
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原本是“一团糟”的生活,
03:28
instead代替 of the mess食堂
that it is or it ought应该 to be.
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你却以这种方式来看待。
03:31
But more specifically特别,
I think of a few少数 major重大的 problems问题
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具体点说,如果我们
都以叙事的方式解释人生,
03:35
when we think too much
in terms条款 of narrative叙述.
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我认为这里有几个问题。
03:39
First, narratives叙事 tend趋向 to be too simple简单,
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第一,叙述往往简单化,
03:41
for the point of a narrative叙述
is to strip跳闸 it away,
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为了叙述事件,我们去除细节,
03:43
not just into 18 minutes分钟,
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十几分钟都绰绰有余,
03:45
but most narratives叙事
you can present当下 in a sentence句子 or two.
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大多数叙述甚至
可以简化成一两句话。
03:48
When you strip跳闸 away detail详情,
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当你去除细节时,
03:50
you tend趋向 to tell stories故事
in terms条款 of good versus evil邪恶,
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你的故事往往只注重善恶之分,
03:54
whether是否 it's a story故事 about your own拥有 life
or a story故事 about politics政治.
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无论是涉及你自己的故事
还是政治事件。
03:58
I know some things actually其实 are
good versus evil邪恶, we all know this, right?
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而很多事情并不是非好则坏,
大家都知道这点,对吧?
04:02
But I think, as a general一般 rule规则,
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但一般情况下,
04:03
we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil邪恶 story故事.
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我们太喜欢讲述
正义对抗邪恶的故事。
04:07
As a simple简单 rule规则 of thumb拇指,
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就经验法则来说,
04:09
just imagine想像 that every一切 time
you're telling告诉 a good versus evil邪恶 story故事,
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记住每讲一次
正义对抗邪恶的故事,
04:13
you're basically基本上 lowering降低 your IQ智商
by ten points or more.
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你的智商就降低了十个点以上。
04:17
If you just adopt采用 that
as a kind of inner mental心理 habit习惯,
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如果你把它作为一种内在的心理习惯,
04:20
it's, in my view视图, one way to get
a lot smarter聪明 pretty漂亮 quickly很快.
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在我看来,
这是一种聪明速成法。
04:24
You don't have to read any books图书.
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你不必阅读任何书籍,
04:25
Just imagine想像 yourself你自己 pressing紧迫 a button按键
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只要想象一下,
04:27
every一切 time you tell
the good versus evil邪恶 story故事,
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每次你讲述正义对抗邪恶的故事,
04:30
and by pressing紧迫 that button按键,
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就像按下一个按钮,
04:32
you're lowering降低 your IQ智商
by ten points or more.
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你的智商就降低至少十个点。
04:35
Another另一个 set of stories故事 that are popular-流行--
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另一套流行的故事——
04:37
if you know Oliver奥利弗 Stone's斯通的 movies电影,
or Michael迈克尔 Moore's摩尔定律 movies电影,
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就像奥利弗·斯通的电影,
或迈克尔·摩尔的电影。
04:40
you can't make a movie电影 and say:
"It was all a big accident事故."
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你不可能拍了个电影,
却说"这是个天大的意外。"
04:44
No, it has to be a conspiracy阴谋,
people plotting绘制 together一起,
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不可能,一定是有预谋的,
是人们在一起策划的,
04:48
because in a story故事,
a story故事 is about intention意向.
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因为故事最终都有它的意图。
04:52
A story故事 is not about spontaneous自发 order订购
or complex复杂 human人的 institutions机构
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故事的重点不在于自发的秩序,
或复杂的社会机制——
04:56
which哪一个 are the product产品 of human人的 action行动,
but not of human人的 design设计.
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它是人类活动的产物,
而非人类设计的。
04:59
No, a story故事 is about evil邪恶 people
plotting绘制 together一起.
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故事强调的是
邪恶的人们凑在一起搞阴谋。
05:03
So when you hear stories故事 about plots地块,
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所以,当你听到搞阴谋的故事,
05:06
or even stories故事 about good people
plotting绘制 things together一起,
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甚至是好人在一起策划时,
05:09
just like when you're watching观看 movies电影,
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就如同看电影一样值得注意,
05:11
this, again, is reason原因 to be suspicious可疑.
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因为这便是值得怀疑的原因。
05:14
As a good rule规则 of thumb拇指, if you're asking:
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依据黄金法则,你应该问:
05:16
"When I hear a story故事, when should I
be especially特别 suspicious可疑?"
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“当我听到故事的时候,
什么时候应该持怀疑态度?”
05:19
If you hear a story故事 and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie电影!"
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如果你听到一个故事,直接的反应是:
“哇,那会是部好电影!”
05:24
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
05:25
That's when the "uh-oh嗯,哦" reaction反应
should pop流行的 in a bit more,
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这便是“ 不对,等一下”
应该出现的时刻,
05:29
and you should start开始 thinking思维 in terms条款
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你应该试问:
05:31
of how the whole整个 thing
is maybe a bit of a mess食堂.
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整个事情是否显得有点乱七八糟?
05:35
Another另一个 common共同 story故事 or storyline故事情节 is
the claim要求 that we "have to get tough强硬".
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另一个常见的故事或情节
就是宣扬我们“必须要强硬起来”。
05:41
You'll你会 hear this in so many许多 contexts上下文.
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它出现在多种情况下:
05:43
We have to get tough强硬 with the banks银行.
We had to get tough强硬 with the labor劳动 unions工会.
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我们要对银行强硬起来,
我们要对工会强硬起来,
05:48
We need to get tough强硬
with some other country国家,
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我们要对一些国家强硬起来,
05:50
some foreign国外 dictator独裁者,
someone有人 we're negotiating谈判 with.
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要对一些国外强权势力
或谈判对象强硬起来。
05:54
Again, the point is not
against反对 getting得到 tough强硬.
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再次强调一下,
重点不在我们要强硬起来,
05:57
Sometimes有时 we should get tough强硬.
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有些时候我们确实要强硬起来。
05:58
That we got tough强硬 with the Nazis纳粹
was a good thing.
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像对待纳粹就该强硬。
06:02
But this is again a story故事 we fall秋季 back
upon all too readily容易, all too quickly很快.
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但这又是一个我们
太容易快速落入的陷阱。
06:08
When we don't really know
why something happened发生,
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当我们不了解
到底发生了什么的时候,
06:10
we blame someone有人, and we say:
"We need to get tough强硬 with them!"
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我们总是责怪他人:
“我们应该对他们强硬起来!”
06:14
As if it had never occurred发生
to your predecessor前任,
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就好像你的前任
06:16
this idea理念 of getting得到 tough强硬.
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从没有过这个想法似的。
06:18
I view视图 it usually平时
as a kind of mental心理 laziness怠惰.
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我认为这是一种思想上的懒惰。
06:21
It's a simple简单 story故事 you tell:
"We need to get tough强硬,
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你只是简单地强调:
06:25
we needed需要 to get tough强硬,
we will have to get tough强硬."
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“我们需要变得强硬,
我们必须强硬起来。“
06:27
Usually平时, that is a kind of warning警告 signal信号.
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通常这只能算是一种警告。
06:31
Another另一个 kind of problem问题 with stories故事 is
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故事的另一个问题是,
06:34
you can only fit适合 so many许多 stories故事
into your mind心神 at once一旦,
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你只能在脑海中一次
存放有限的故事,
06:38
or in the course课程 of a day,
or even over the course课程 of a lifetime一生.
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可以是在一天中,
甚至是在一生中。
06:41
So your stories故事 are serving服务
too many许多 purposes目的.
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所以你的故事要达到太多的目的。
06:44
For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning早上,
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例如,只是为了早上起床,
06:46
you tell yourself你自己 the story故事
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你告诉自己你的工作有多重要,
06:49
that your job工作 is really important重要,
what you're doing is really important重要
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你手头的工作多么重要;
06:52
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
06:54
and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story故事 even when it's not.
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也许是这样的,即便没有这回事儿,
我们也愿意自欺欺人。
07:00
And you know what? That story故事 works作品.
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你们猜怎么着?
这故事很有说服力。
07:02
It gets得到 me out of bed.
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它让我大清早干劲儿十足。
07:04
It's a kind of self-deception自欺欺人,
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这就是一种自欺欺人,
07:06
but the problem问题 comes
when I need to change更改 that story故事.
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但当我想改变它时,
真正的问题来了。
07:09
The whole整个 point of the story故事 is
that I grab onto it and I hold保持 it,
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故事的作用在于我可以利用它,
07:13
and it gets得到 me out of bed.
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使我有了起床的动力。
07:15
So when I'm really doing something
that is actually其实 just a waste浪费 of time,
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所以,当我们在一片狼藉的生活中,
07:19
in my mess食堂 of a life,
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做着浪费时间的事情时,
07:20
I'm too tied into my story故事
that got me out of bed,
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我们完全依赖于
那个催促我们起床的故事。
07:25
and ideally理想, I ought应该 to have some
very complex复杂 story故事 map地图 in my mind心神,
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而理想状态下,
我们在脑海中应该有张复杂的构图,
07:29
you know, with combinatorialscombinatorials
and a matrix矩阵 of computation计算, and the like,
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包括组合和计算矩阵等,
07:32
but that is not how stories故事 work.
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但故事却不是这样运作的。
07:34
Stories故事 in order订购 to work
have to be simple简单,
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故事必须言简意赅,
07:36
easily容易 grasped掌握, easily容易 told
to others其他, easily容易 remembered记得.
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容易理解和讲述,更容易记住。
07:40
So stories故事 will serve服务 dual
and conflicting冲突的 purposes目的,
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故事负有双重责任,
而且目的相左,
07:43
and very often经常 they will lead us astray走错.
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常常使我们误入歧途。
07:46
I used to think I was
within the camp of economists经济学家,
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我曾经以为我属于这个经济阵营,
07:49
I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied联盟的 with other good guys,
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我们这些好的经济学家团结起来,
07:53
and we were fighting战斗
the ideas思路 of the bad guys.
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和那些坏家伙作斗争。
07:56
I used to think that!
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我真是这么想的!
07:58
And probably大概, I was wrong错误.
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也许,我错了。
08:00
Maybe sometimes有时, I'm one of the good guys,
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也许有时候,我是其中的好人。
08:02
but on some issues问题, I finally最后 realized实现:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
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但在一些问题上,我终于意识到:
“嘿,我也并不算好人。”
08:07
I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil邪恶 intent意图,
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我不确定自己是不是有邪念的坏蛋,
08:10
but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story故事.
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但对我来说很难摆脱这个故事。
08:15
One interesting有趣 thing
about cognitive认知 biases偏见
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近来,有一个有趣的现象,
08:19
is they are the subject学科
of so many许多 books图书 these days.
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众多的书籍都在以认知偏见为主题。
08:22
There's the Nudge微调 book,
the Sway摇摆 book, the Blink book,
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例如《推力》、《左右决策的迷惑力》、
《决断两秒钟》,
08:26
like the one-title一个标题 book,
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像这种标题党似的的书籍,
08:28
all about the ways方法 in which哪一个 we screw up.
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都是在讲述我们如何把事情搞砸,
08:31
And there are so many许多 ways方法,
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而且方式多种多样,
08:33
but what I find interesting有趣
is that none没有 of these books图书 identify鉴定
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但有趣的是,
没有一本书明确指出,
08:36
what, to me, is the single, central中央,
most important重要 way we screw up,
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我们把事情搞砸的本质:
08:40
and that is that we tell
ourselves我们自己 too many许多 stories故事,
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那便是我们给自己编的故事太多了,
08:44
or we are too easily容易 seduced诱惑 by stories故事.
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或者说我们太容易被故事诱惑了。
08:47
Why don't these books图书 tell us that?
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这些书为什么不告诉大家
问题的关键呢?
08:49
It's because the books图书 themselves他们自己
are all about stories故事.
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因为这些书本身就是编的故事。
08:53
The more of these books图书 you read,
you're learning学习 about some of your biases偏见,
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这些书读多了你可能
会意识到你的一些偏见,
08:56
but you're making制造 some
of your other biases偏见 essentially实质上 worse更差.
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但正是这样使你在
某些方面的偏见变本加厉。
09:00
So the books图书 themselves他们自己
are part部分 of your cognitive认知 bias偏压.
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所以这些书本身,
成了你认知偏见的一部分。
09:04
Often经常, people buy购买 them
as a kind of talisman护符, like:
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通常,人们把这些书当作护身符:
“ 我有这本书就不会失去理性了”。
09:07
"I bought this book. I won't惯于 be
'Predictably“可以预见的是 Irrational'非理性的”."
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09:11
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:13
It's like people want to hear the worst最差,
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就像人们想听到最坏的消息一样,
09:15
so psychologically心理, they can prepare准备
for it or defend保卫 against反对 it.
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从心理上讲,他们可以
做好准备接受,或与它抗衡。
09:19
It's why there is
such这样 a market市场 for pessimism悲观主义.
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这就是为什么悲观主义很有市场。
09:22
But to think that by buying购买 the book
gets得到 you somewhere某处,
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但如果你认为买这种书能使你成功,
09:25
that's maybe the bigger fallacy谬论.
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可能会是个更大的错误。
09:27
It's just like the evidence证据 that shows节目
that the most dangerous危险 people
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这就像最危险的家伙
09:30
are those who have been taught
some financial金融 literacy读写能力.
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是那些有些金融知识的人。
09:33
They're the ones那些 who go out
and make the worst最差 mistakes错误.
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他们的错误最糟糕。
09:36
It's the people who realize实现
they don't know anything at all,
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倒是那些谦虚的人,
反倒能成功。
09:38
that end结束 up doing pretty漂亮 well.
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09:41
A third第三 problem问题 with stories故事
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故事的第三个问题是
09:43
is that outsiders外人
manipulate操作 us using运用 stories故事,
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外界会用故事来操纵我们,
09:46
and we all like to think advertising广告
only works作品 on the other guy,
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我们都认为广告只对其他人起作用,
09:49
but, of course课程, that's not how it is,
advertising广告 works作品 on all of us.
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实际上不是这么回事,
广告对任何人都起作用。
09:54
So if you're too attached to stories故事,
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所以如果你很相信那些故事,
09:56
what will happen发生 is people
selling销售 products制品 come along沿,
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人们就会利用这些
夹杂了广告的故事,
10:00
and they will bundle
their product产品 with a story故事.
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销售他们的产品。
10:03
You're like, "Hey, a free自由 story故事!"
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你呢,就会听信他们的免费故事,
10:04
And you end结束 up buying购买 the product产品,
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买下他们的产品,
10:06
because the product产品
and the story故事 go together一起.
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因为那些产品是
这些故事的一部分。
10:08
(LaugtherLaugther)
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(笑声)
10:09
If you think about how capitalism资本主义 works作品,
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如果你在思考资本主义如何运作,
别忘了这里有个偏见。
10:11
there is a bias偏压 here.
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10:13
Let's consider考虑 two kinds
of stories故事 about cars汽车.
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让我们来看看两种车的广告。
10:16
Story故事 A is: "Buy购买 this car汽车,
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故事A:“买这辆车吧,
10:19
and you will have beautiful美丽, romantic浪漫
partners伙伴 and a fascinating迷人 life."
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你会有个漂亮,浪漫的伴侣,
享受高品质的生活。“
10:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:25
There are a lot of people
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这里有很多能从中获利的人,
10:26
who have a financial金融 incentive激励
to promote促进 that story故事.
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2495
会极力宣传这个故事。
10:29
But, say, the alternative替代 story故事 is:
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而另外一个版本的故事是:
10:31
"You don't actually其实 need a car汽车
as nice不错 as your income收入 would indicate表明.
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“你实际上不需要一辆
和你收入相当的车。
10:35
What you usually平时 do is look
at what your peers同行 do and copy复制 them.
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你只需要看看身边的同事,
然后模仿他们的生活方式。
10:39
That is a good heuristic启发式
for lots of problems问题,
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对于很多问题这都很适用,
但是谈到买车,买丰田就行了。“
10:41
but when it comes to cars汽车,
just buy购买 a Toyota丰田."
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10:43
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:45
Maybe Toyota丰田 has an incentive激励 there,
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也许丰田给了赞助,
10:47
but even Toyota丰田 is making制造
more money off the luxury豪华 cars汽车,
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但即使是丰田,豪华车赚的钱
10:50
and less money off the cheaper便宜 cars汽车.
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1937
也比普通车多。
10:52
So if you think which哪一个 set of stories故事
you end结束 up hearing听力,
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如果你还不知道你会听哪边,
10:55
you end结束 up hearing听力 the glamor魅力 stories故事,
the seductive妖媚 stories故事,
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我告诉你,你会听魅力诱人的故事,
10:58
and again I'm telling告诉 you,
don't trust相信 them.
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所以我再次提醒你,千万别信。
11:00
There are people using运用
your love of stories故事 to manipulate操作 you.
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有人在利用
你爱听的故事来操纵你。
11:06
Pull back and say:
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退一步说:
11:07
"What are the messages消息,
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“要传递的信息是什么,
如果故事没有任何动机呢?“
11:08
what are the stories故事
that no one has an incentive激励 to tell?"
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2784
11:11
Start开始 telling告诉 yourself你自己 those, and then see
if any of your decisions决定 change更改.
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首先告诉自己这个结论,
然后看看你的决定会不会改变。
11:15
That is one simple简单 way.
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这是个简单易行的方法。
11:17
You can never get out of the pattern模式
of thinking思维 in terms条款 of stories故事,
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你永远摆脱不了
对故事的那种思维模式,
11:21
but you can improve提高 the extent程度
to which哪一个 you think in stories故事,
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3636
但你可以提高对故事的认知程度,
11:24
and make some better decisions决定.
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从而做出更好的决定。
11:27
So if I'm thinking思维 about this talk,
I'm wondering想知道, of course课程,
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3154
说到这个演讲,我当然很想知道,
11:30
what is it you take away from this talk?
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你们能从中学到什么?
11:33
What story故事 do you take away
from Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩?
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3779
你们从泰勒·考恩的
故事中了解到了什么?
11:37
One story故事 you might威力 be
like the story故事 of the quest寻求.
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其中之一,你可以
编个探索人生的故事。
11:40
"Tyler泰勒 was a man on a quest寻求.
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2425
“泰勒正在探索人生的路上,
11:43
Tyler泰勒 came来了 here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms条款 of stories故事."
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5592
他告诉我们不要太相信故事。”
11:49
That would be a story故事
you could tell about this talk.
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这便是你可以告诉别人的故事。
11:51
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:53
It would fit适合 a pretty漂亮 well-known知名 pattern模式.
224
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1982
正合我们的套路。
11:55
You might威力 remember记得 it.
You could tell it to other people.
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你可能还可以这样告诉别人:
11:58
"This weird奇怪的 guy came来了, and he said,
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1720
“这个奇怪的家伙来了就说,
‘不要听信故事。
让我告诉你今天发生了什么!’ ”
12:00
'Don't think in terms条款 of stories故事.
Let me tell you what happened发生 today今天!'"
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(笑声)
12:03
(Laughter笑声)
228
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1003
然后你开始讲述你的故事。
12:04
And you tell your story故事.
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1531
12:06
(LaugtherLaugther)
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1641
(笑声)
12:08
Another另一个 possibility可能性 is
you might威力 tell a story故事 of rebirth新生.
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4322
另一种可能性是,
你可能会讲个重新做人的故事。
12:13
You might威力 say, "I used to think
too much in terms条款 of stories故事
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4219
你可能会说,“我曾经太相信故事了。
12:17
(Laughter笑声)
233
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2742
(笑声)
12:20
but then I heard听说 Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩
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2118
但后来我听了泰勒·考恩的演讲,
12:22
(Laughter笑声)
235
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966
(笑声)
12:23
and now I think less in terms条款 of stories故事!"
236
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3274
现在明智多了!“
12:27
That too is a narrative叙述 you will remember记得,
237
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2800
这个你也会印象很深,
12:29
you can tell to other people,
and again, it may可能 stick.
238
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3821
你可以讲给别人听,
他们可能也会觉得记忆犹新。
12:34
You also could tell
a story故事 of deep tragedy悲剧.
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4043
你还可以讲一个沉重的悲剧。
12:38
"This guy Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩 came来了
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1935
“这个叫泰勒·考恩的家伙来了,
12:40
(Laughter笑声)
241
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1250
(笑声)
12:42
and he told us not to think
in terms条款 of stories故事,
242
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2602
他告诉我们不要听信故事,
12:44
but all he could do was tell us stories故事
243
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1938
但他所做的就是给我们讲
12:46
(Laughter笑声)
244
730811
1066
(笑声)
12:47
about how other people think
too much in terms条款 of stories故事."
245
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别人是如何听信故事的。”
12:51
(Laughter笑声)
246
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1959
(笑声)
12:54
So, today今天, which哪一个 is it?
Is it like quest寻求, rebirth新生, tragedy悲剧?
247
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4619
那么今天的故事
是探索人生,重新作人,还是悲剧?
12:59
Or maybe some combination组合 of the three?
248
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2493
或者是三者的组合呢?
13:02
I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you
249
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2778
我真的不确定,而且我到这里,
13:05
to burn烧伤 your DVDDVD player播放机
and throw out your Tolstoy托尔斯泰.
250
749404
3955
不是让你烧掉影碟机,
或扔掉托尔斯泰的大作。
13:09
To think in terms条款 of stories故事
is fundamentally从根本上 human人的.
251
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以故事的方式思考是人的本能。
13:14
There is a Gabriel加布里埃尔 Garcia加西亚 Marquez马尔克斯
memoir传记 "Living活的 to Tell the Tale故事"
252
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5203
在加布里埃尔·加西亚·马克斯的
自传“为故事而生”中,
13:19
that we use memory记忆 in stories故事
to make sense of what we've我们已经 doneDONE,
253
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3461
我们使用故事中的记忆
去理解我们所做的一切,
13:23
to give meaning含义 to our lives生活, to establish建立
connections连接 with other people.
254
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4493
给我们的生活带来意义,
与他人建立联系。
13:27
None没有 of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away.
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这些都不会消失,
不应消失,也不能消失。
13:31
But again, as an economist经济学家,
I'm thinking思维 about life on the margin余量,
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但是, 作为经济学家,
我常常思考的是边际人生,
13:37
the extra额外 decision决定.
257
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1616
额外的决策。
13:38
Should we think more in terms条款 of stories故事,
or less in terms条款 of stories故事?
258
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4109
以故事的方式思维,是多多益善,
还是应该尽量避免?
13:42
When we hear stories故事,
should we be more suspicious可疑?
259
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4132
当聆听这些故事时,
我们是否应该更加持怀疑态度?
13:47
And what kind of stories故事
should we be suspicious可疑 of?
260
791195
2768
我们应该更加怀疑哪种故事呢?
13:49
Again, I'm telling告诉 you it's the stories故事,
very often经常, that you like the most,
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4624
再次,我可以告诉你,
正是那些你最喜欢的,
13:54
that you find the most rewarding奖励,
the most inspiring鼓舞人心.
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听起来最有价值,
最鼓舞人心的故事。
13:58
The stories故事 that don't focus焦点
on opportunity机会 cost成本,
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3701
而那些不把机会成本作为重点,
14:02
or the complex复杂, unintended意外
consequences后果 of human人的 action行动,
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或是复杂的,表现出
意想不到人类行为的故事,
14:05
because that very often经常
does not make for a good story故事.
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往往却被忽略,
因为它们不是好的素材。
14:09
So often经常 a story故事 is a story故事
of triumph胜利, a story故事 of struggle斗争;
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所以,所谓的故事通常是:
正义战胜邪恶,与困难作斗争;
14:14
there are opposing反对 forces军队,
which哪一个 are either evil邪恶 or ignorant愚昧;
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肯定是有一股反对的势力,
不是邪恶便是无知;
14:18
there is a person on a quest寻求,
someone有人 making制造 a voyage航程,
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某人正在探索的旅途中,
14:22
and a stranger陌生人 coming未来 to town.
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或陌生人出现了。
14:24
And those are your categories类别,
but don't let them make you too happy快乐.
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这些都是你喜欢的套路,
但千万别让它们把你蒙骗了。
14:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:33
As an alternative替代,
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另外的一个选择,
14:35
at the margin余量
- again, no burning燃烧 of Tolstoy托尔斯泰 -
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依然不是要你
烧掉托尔斯泰的大作——
14:39
but just be a little more messy.
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但至少要接受一点儿杂乱的生活。
14:42
If I actually其实 had to live生活 those journeys旅程,
and quests任务, and battles战斗,
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如果强制我非要踏上那些征程,
进行那些探索或斗争,
14:47
that would be so oppressive压抑 to me!
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我会觉得太压抑了!
14:49
It's like, my goodness善良,
can't I just have my life
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那种感觉就像:上帝呀,
14:51
in its messy, ordinary普通
- I hesitate迟疑 to use the word - glory荣耀
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我能不能过一种普通的生活,
可能有些小凌乱,
14:55
but that it's fun开玩笑 for me?
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但我很享受这种状态呢?
14:57
Do I really have to follow跟随
some kind of narrative叙述?
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我真的需要听从那些大道理吗?
我能不能只过单纯的日子呢?
14:59
Can't I just live生活?
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15:01
So be more comfortable自在 with messy.
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所以,学会接受“一团糟”,
15:05
Be more comfortable自在 with agnostic不可知,
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学会接受“不可知”,
15:08
and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good.
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我指的是让你感觉良好的事情。
15:10
It's so easy简单 to pick out
a few少数 areas to be agnostic不可知 in,
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很容易就挑出几个
不可知论的领域,
15:13
and then feel good about it,
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同时欣然接受,
比如,“对于宗教或政治,
我是不可知论者。“
15:14
like, "I am agnostic不可知
about religion宗教, or politics政治."
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15:18
It's a kind of portfolio投资组合 move移动 you make
to be more dogmatic武断的 elsewhere别处, right?
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而这个策略会变相让你在其他领域
变得更加教条,对吧?
15:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
15:25
Sometimes有时,
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有时候,
最值得信赖的智慧之人,
在某一领域,
15:26
the most intellectually知性上 trustworthy可靠 people
are the ones那些 who pick one area,
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却可以教条到完全不可理喻,
15:29
and they are totally完全 dogmatic武断的 in that,
so pig-headedly猪排辈 unreasonable不合理,
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你会觉得,“他们怎么可能
相信这些呢?“
15:32
that you think,
"How can they possibly或者 believe that?"
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15:35
But it soaks浸泡 up their stubbornness固执,
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这是因为他们
完全沉浸在固执己见当中。
15:40
and then, on other things,
they can be pretty漂亮 open-minded思想开明的.
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然而在其他方面,
他们又可以特别开放。
15:43
So don't fall秋季 into the trap陷阱 of thinking思维
because you're agnostic不可知 on some things,
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所以,千万别认为
你在一些事情上持“不可知论”,
就表明你对任何的
自我欺骗,你的故事,
15:46
that you're being存在 fundamentally从根本上 reasonable合理
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2013
你的开明的判断,就一定是理性的。
15:48
about your self-deception自欺欺人, your stories故事,
and your open-mindedness开明.
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15:52
(Laughter笑声)
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( 笑声 )
15:54
[Think about] this idea理念 of hovering徘徊,
of epistemological认识论 hovering徘徊,
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仔细考虑一下这些想法,
这些天马行空的认知,
15:58
and messiness杂乱, and incompleteness不完备,
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一团糟,不尽完美,
16:02
[and how] not everything
ties联系 up into a neat整齐 bow,
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不是每一件事都能那么完美,
16:04
and you're really not on a journey旅程 here.
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你也不是在什么征程当中。
16:07
You're here for some
messy reason原因 or reasons原因,
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你凌乱的生活有它的原因,
16:10
and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
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也许你不知道这原因是什么,
我也不知道,
16:14
but anyway无论如何, I'm happy快乐 to be invited邀请,
and thank you all for listening.
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但无论如何,我不胜荣幸被邀请到这里,
感谢大家的倾听。
16:18
(Laughter笑声)
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( 笑声)
16:19
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Jing Peng

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.

Why you should listen

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.

His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.

Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.

Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>

More profile about the speaker
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com