TEDxMidAtlantic
Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of simple stories
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Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:36
I was told to come here
and tell you all stories,
and tell you all stories,
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Rečeno mi je da dođem
ovamo i ispričam vam priče,
ovamo i ispričam vam priče,
00:39
but what I'd like to do is instead
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
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no, radije bih vam rekao
zašto sam sumnjičav prema pričama,
zašto sam sumnjičav prema pričama,
00:43
why stories make me nervous.
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zašto me one uznemiruju.
00:45
In fact, the more inspired
a story makes me feel,
a story makes me feel,
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Zapravo, što me priča više nadahnjuje,
00:49
very often, the more nervous I get.
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to sam uznemireniji.
00:51
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:52
So the best stories
are often the trickiest ones.
are often the trickiest ones.
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Najbolje priče su često najškakljivije.
00:55
The good and bad things about stories
is that they are a kind of filter.
is that they are a kind of filter.
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Ono što je i dobro i loše kod priča
jest da su one neka vrsta filtera.
jest da su one neka vrsta filtera.
Preuzmu puno informacija,
no neke izostave,
no neke izostave,
00:58
They take a lot of information,
and they leave some of it out,
and they leave some of it out,
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01:01
and they keep some of it in.
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a neke zadrže.
01:03
But the thing about this filter is
that it always leaves the same things in.
that it always leaves the same things in.
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No, problem s filterom je u tome
što uvijek zadržava iste stvari.
što uvijek zadržava iste stvari.
01:07
You're always left
with the same few simple stories.
with the same few simple stories.
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Uvijek vam preostane
nekoliko jednostavnih priča.
nekoliko jednostavnih priča.
01:10
There is the old saying
that just about every story
that just about every story
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Prema staroj izreci,
svaka se priča
svaka se priča
može sažeti u rečenici:
"Stranac je došao u grad."
"Stranac je došao u grad."
01:13
can be summed up
as "a stranger came to town."
as "a stranger came to town."
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U jednoj knjizi Christophera Bookera,
01:16
There is a book by Christopher Booker,
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on tvrdi da postoji
samo sedam vrsta priča.
samo sedam vrsta priča.
01:18
where he claims there are really
just seven types of stories.
just seven types of stories.
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To su priče o čudovištu, uspjehu, misiji,
01:21
There is monster, rags to riches, quest,
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01:23
voyage and return,
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
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putovanju i povratku,
komediji, tragediji, ponovnom rođenju.
komediji, tragediji, ponovnom rođenju.
01:27
You don't have to agree
with that list exactly,
with that list exactly,
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Ne morate se potpuno
složiti s ovim popisom,
složiti s ovim popisom,
01:30
but the point is this:
if you think in terms of stories,
if you think in terms of stories,
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no ovo je bit:
kada govorimo o pričama,
kada govorimo o pričama,
01:33
you're telling yourself the same things
over and over again.
over and over again.
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uvijek ponovno
pričate si iste priče.
pričate si iste priče.
01:37
There was a study done,
we asked some people--
we asked some people--
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Provedeno je jedno istraživanje,
zamolili smo ljude,
zamolili smo ljude,
01:46
people were asked to describe their lives.
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zamolili smo ljude da opišu svoj život.
01:49
When asked to describe their lives,
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Kada su ih pitali da opišu život,
zanimljivo je koliko je
malo ljudi reklo "nered".
malo ljudi reklo "nered".
01:51
what is interesting
is how few people said "mess".
is how few people said "mess".
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01:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:56
It's probably the best answer,
I don't mean that in a bad way.
I don't mean that in a bad way.
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To je vjerojatno najbolji odgovor
i ne mislim tu ništa loše.
i ne mislim tu ništa loše.
02:00
"Mess" can be liberating,
"mess" can be empowering,
"mess" can be empowering,
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"Nered" može biti
oslobađajući, ohrabrujući,
oslobađajući, ohrabrujući,
02:02
"mess" can be a way
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
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"nered" je način da
se iskoriste brojne prednosti.
se iskoriste brojne prednosti.
02:06
But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey."
"My life is a journey."
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No, ljudi zapravo žele reći:
"Moj je život putovanje."
"Moj je život putovanje."
02:10
51% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story.
his or her life into a story.
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51% ljudi htjelo je
pretvoriti svoj život u priču.
pretvoriti svoj život u priču.
02:15
11% said, "My life is a battle."
Again, that is a kind of story.
Again, that is a kind of story.
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11% njih je reklo: "Moj je život bitka."
I to je ponovno, na neki način, priča.
I to je ponovno, na neki način, priča.
02:20
8% said, "My life is a novel."
5% said, "My life is a play."
5% said, "My life is a play."
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Njih 8% reklo je: "Moj život je roman.",
a 5% ih je reklo: "Moj život je drama."
a 5% ih je reklo: "Moj život je drama."
02:24
I don't think anyone said,
"My life is a reality TV show."
"My life is a reality TV show."
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Mislim da nitko nije rekao:
"Moj život je reality emisija."
"Moj život je reality emisija."
02:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:28
But again, we're imposing order
on the mess we observe,
on the mess we observe,
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Ponovno, uvodimo red
u nered koji opažamo
u nered koji opažamo
02:32
and it's taking the same patterns,
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i preuzimamo iste obrasce,
02:34
and the thing is when something
is in the form of a story,
is in the form of a story,
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a kada je nešto u obliku priče,
02:37
often, we remember it when we shouldn't.
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često je to sjećanje iskrivljeno.
02:39
So how many of you know the story
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Koliko vas zna za priču
02:41
about George Washington
and the cherry tree?
and the cherry tree?
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o Georgeu Washingtonu i trešnjinom stablu?
02:44
It's not obvious that is
exactly what happened.
exactly what happened.
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Nije očito da se točno to dogodilo.
02:46
The story of Paul Revere, it's not obvious
that that is exactly the way it happened.
that that is exactly the way it happened.
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Priča o Paulu Revereu, nije očigledno
da se to točno tako dogodilo.
da se to točno tako dogodilo.
02:51
So again, we should be
suspicious of stories.
suspicious of stories.
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Još jednom, trebamo biti
nepovjerljivi prema pričama.
nepovjerljivi prema pričama.
02:55
We're biologically programmed
to respond to them.
to respond to them.
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Biološki smo programirani
da na njih reagiramo.
da na njih reagiramo.
02:58
They contain a lot of information.
They have social power.
They have social power.
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Sadrže puno informacija.
Imaju društvenu moć.
Imaju društvenu moć.
03:01
They connect us to other people.
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Povezuju nas s drugim ljudima.
03:03
So they are like a candy that we're fed
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One su poput slatkiša koje nam daju
03:05
when we consume political information,
when we read novels.
when we read novels.
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kada upijamo političke informacije,
kada čitamo romane.
kada čitamo romane.
03:09
When we read non-fiction books,
we're really being fed stories.
we're really being fed stories.
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Kada čitamo popularno znanstvene knjige,
zapravo nas hrane pričama.
zapravo nas hrane pričama.
03:12
Non-fiction is, in a sense,
the new fiction.
the new fiction.
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Nefikcija je, zapravo, nova fikcija.
03:15
The book may happen to say true things,
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U knjizi su možda navedene istine,
03:18
but again, everything's taking
the same form of these stories.
the same form of these stories.
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no, sve je u obliku tih priča.
03:22
So what are the problems
of relying too heavily on stories?
of relying too heavily on stories?
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U čemu je problem kod oslanjanja na priče?
03:26
You view your life like this
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Gledate svoj život na taj način,
03:28
instead of the mess
that it is or it ought to be.
that it is or it ought to be.
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umjesto da ga doživljavate kao nered
što i jest ili bi trebao biti.
što i jest ili bi trebao biti.
03:31
But more specifically,
I think of a few major problems
I think of a few major problems
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Konkretnije, imam na umu
nekoliko problema,
nekoliko problema,
03:35
when we think too much
in terms of narrative.
in terms of narrative.
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do kojih dolazi kada razmišljamo
u okvirima priče.
u okvirima priče.
03:39
First, narratives tend to be too simple,
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Kao prvo, priče su prejednostavne,
03:41
for the point of a narrative
is to strip it away,
is to strip it away,
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smisao priče je ogoliti srž,
03:43
not just into 18 minutes,
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ne samo u 18 minuta,
03:45
but most narratives
you can present in a sentence or two.
you can present in a sentence or two.
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nego većina se priča može
ispričati u jednoj ili dvije rečenice.
ispričati u jednoj ili dvije rečenice.
03:48
When you strip away detail,
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Kada uklonite detalje,
03:50
you tend to tell stories
in terms of good versus evil,
in terms of good versus evil,
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pričate priče svedene
na borbu dobra i zla,
na borbu dobra i zla,
03:54
whether it's a story about your own life
or a story about politics.
or a story about politics.
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bila to priča o vašem životu
ili priča o politici.
ili priča o politici.
03:58
I know some things actually are
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
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Znam da neke stvari možemo
svesti na dobro protiv zla, svi to znamo.
svesti na dobro protiv zla, svi to znamo.
04:02
But I think, as a general rule,
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No, općenito,
04:03
we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil story.
the good versus evil story.
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previše smo skloni pričanju
priča o borbi između dobra i zla.
priča o borbi između dobra i zla.
04:07
As a simple rule of thumb,
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Kao da je to opće pravilo,
04:09
just imagine that every time
you're telling a good versus evil story,
you're telling a good versus evil story,
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zamislite da svaki put kada pričate
priču o borbi između dobra i zla,
priču o borbi između dobra i zla,
04:13
you're basically lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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snižavate svoj kvocijent inteligencije
za deset ili više bodova.
za deset ili više bodova.
04:17
If you just adopt that
as a kind of inner mental habit,
as a kind of inner mental habit,
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Ako usvojite to kao neku vrstu
unutarnje mentalne navike,
unutarnje mentalne navike,
04:20
it's, in my view, one way to get
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
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mislim da je to način
da brzo postanete dosta pametniji.
da brzo postanete dosta pametniji.
04:24
You don't have to read any books.
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Ne morate čitati knjige.
04:25
Just imagine yourself pressing a button
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Samo zamislite kako pritišćete tipku
04:27
every time you tell
the good versus evil story,
the good versus evil story,
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svaki put kada ispričate
priču o dobru protiv zla,
priču o dobru protiv zla,
04:30
and by pressing that button,
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a pritiskanjem te tipke,
04:32
you're lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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snižavate si IQ
za deset ili više bodova.
za deset ili više bodova.
04:35
Another set of stories that are popular--
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Još jedna vrsta popularnih priča,
04:37
if you know Oliver Stone's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
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ako ste gledali filmove
Olivera Stonea ili Michaela Moorea,
Olivera Stonea ili Michaela Moorea,
04:40
you can't make a movie and say:
"It was all a big accident."
"It was all a big accident."
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ne možete snimiti film i reći:
"Sve je to bio puki slučaj."
"Sve je to bio puki slučaj."
04:44
No, it has to be a conspiracy,
people plotting together,
people plotting together,
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Ne, mora biti riječ o uroti,
ljudima koji zajedno spletkare,
ljudima koji zajedno spletkare,
04:48
because in a story,
a story is about intention.
a story is about intention.
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jer priča uključuje namjeru.
04:52
A story is not about spontaneous order
or complex human institutions
or complex human institutions
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Nema priče o spontanim događajima
ili složenim ljudskim institucijama
ili složenim ljudskim institucijama
04:56
which are the product of human action,
but not of human design.
but not of human design.
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koje su rezultat ljudskih aktivnosti,
ali ne i ljudskih planova.
ali ne i ljudskih planova.
04:59
No, a story is about evil people
plotting together.
plotting together.
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Ne, priča govori o zlim ljudima
koji zajedno spletkare.
koji zajedno spletkare.
05:03
So when you hear stories about plots,
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Kada čujete priče o zavjerama,
05:06
or even stories about good people
plotting things together,
plotting things together,
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ili čak priče o dobrim ljudima
koji zajedno nešto snuju,
koji zajedno nešto snuju,
05:09
just like when you're watching movies,
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kao kada gledate filmove,
05:11
this, again, is reason to be suspicious.
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i to je razlog da budete sumnjičavi.
05:14
As a good rule of thumb, if you're asking:
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U pravilu, ako pitate:
05:16
"When I hear a story, when should I
be especially suspicious?"
be especially suspicious?"
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"Kada čujem priču, kada trebam
biti osobito sumnjičav?"
biti osobito sumnjičav?"
05:19
If you hear a story and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
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Ako čujete priču i pomislite:
"To bi bio odličan film!"
"To bi bio odličan film!"
05:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:25
That's when the "uh-oh" reaction
should pop in a bit more,
should pop in a bit more,
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Tu bi trebalo češće izabrati
ne-ne reakciju,
ne-ne reakciju,
05:29
and you should start thinking in terms
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a trebate razmišljati o tome
05:31
of how the whole thing
is maybe a bit of a mess.
is maybe a bit of a mess.
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kako je sve to možda pomalo nered.
05:35
Another common story or storyline is
the claim that we "have to get tough".
the claim that we "have to get tough".
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Još je jedna uobičajena priča,
tvrdnja da trebamo "biti stroži".
tvrdnja da trebamo "biti stroži".
05:41
You'll hear this in so many contexts.
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Čut ćete to u raznim kontekstima.
05:43
We have to get tough with the banks.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
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Moramo biti stroži s bankama.
Moramo biti stroži sa sindikatima.
Moramo biti stroži sa sindikatima.
05:48
We need to get tough
with some other country,
with some other country,
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Moramo biti stroži s nekom drugom zemljom,
05:50
some foreign dictator,
someone we're negotiating with.
someone we're negotiating with.
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stranim diktatorom,
s nekim s kim pregovaramo.
s nekim s kim pregovaramo.
05:54
Again, the point is not
against getting tough.
against getting tough.
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Nije mi cilj govoriti protiv strogoće.
05:57
Sometimes we should get tough.
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Katkada treba biti strog.
05:58
That we got tough with the Nazis
was a good thing.
was a good thing.
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Dobro je da smo bili strogi s nacistima.
06:02
But this is again a story we fall back
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
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No, prečesto i prespremno
se oslanjamo na tu priču.
se oslanjamo na tu priču.
06:08
When we don't really know
why something happened,
why something happened,
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Kada ne znamo
zašto se nešto dogodilo,
zašto se nešto dogodilo,
06:10
we blame someone, and we say:
"We need to get tough with them!"
"We need to get tough with them!"
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krivimo nekoga i kažemo:
"Moramo biti stroži s njima!"
"Moramo biti stroži s njima!"
06:14
As if it had never occurred
to your predecessor,
to your predecessor,
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Kao da vašem prethodniku
nije pala na pamet
nije pala na pamet
06:16
this idea of getting tough.
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ta zamisao da treba biti stroži.
06:18
I view it usually
as a kind of mental laziness.
as a kind of mental laziness.
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Obično to doživljavam
kao mentalnu lijenost.
kao mentalnu lijenost.
06:21
It's a simple story you tell:
"We need to get tough,
"We need to get tough,
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Priča je jednostavna:
"Moramo postati stroži,
"Moramo postati stroži,
06:25
we needed to get tough,
we will have to get tough."
we will have to get tough."
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trebali smo biti stroži,
morat ćemo postati stroži."
morat ćemo postati stroži."
06:27
Usually, that is a kind of warning signal.
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Obično je to nešto kao signal upozorenja.
06:31
Another kind of problem with stories is
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Još je jedan problem s pričama
06:34
you can only fit so many stories
into your mind at once,
into your mind at once,
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taj što u mozak možete
pohraniti samo određeni broj priča,
pohraniti samo određeni broj priča,
06:38
or in the course of a day,
or even over the course of a lifetime.
or even over the course of a lifetime.
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ili tijekom dana, ili čak tijekom života.
06:41
So your stories are serving
too many purposes.
too many purposes.
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Vaše priče imaju previše namjena.
06:44
For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning,
out of bed in the morning,
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Na primjer, samo da se ujutro
ustanete iz kreveta,
ustanete iz kreveta,
06:46
you tell yourself the story
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pričate si priču
06:49
that your job is really important,
what you're doing is really important
what you're doing is really important
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o tome da je vaš posao zaista važan,
da radite nešto važno.
da radite nešto važno.
06:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:54
and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story even when it's not.
that story even when it's not.
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Možda i jest tako, no ja si ispričam
tu priču i kada nije istina.
tu priču i kada nije istina.
07:00
And you know what? That story works.
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I znate što? Priča djeluje.
07:02
It gets me out of bed.
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Izvuče me iz kreveta.
07:04
It's a kind of self-deception,
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To je vrsta samozavaravanja,
07:06
but the problem comes
when I need to change that story.
when I need to change that story.
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no, do problema dolazi
kada trebam promijeniti priču.
kada trebam promijeniti priču.
07:09
The whole point of the story is
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
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Svrha priče je zgrabiti
nešto, držati se toga
nešto, držati se toga
07:13
and it gets me out of bed.
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i to me izvuče iz kreveta.
07:15
So when I'm really doing something
that is actually just a waste of time,
that is actually just a waste of time,
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Kada radim nešto
što je zapravo gubitak vremena,
što je zapravo gubitak vremena,
07:19
in my mess of a life,
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u neredu od svog života,
07:20
I'm too tied into my story
that got me out of bed,
that got me out of bed,
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previše sam vezan za priču
koja me izvukla iz kreveta,
koja me izvukla iz kreveta,
07:25
and ideally, I ought to have some
very complex story map in my mind,
very complex story map in my mind,
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i bilo bi idealno imati
složenu kartu priča u mozgu,
složenu kartu priča u mozgu,
07:29
you know, with combinatorials
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
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znate, s kombinacijama
i matricom izračuna i slično,
i matricom izračuna i slično,
07:32
but that is not how stories work.
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no, priče tako ne funkcioniraju.
07:34
Stories in order to work
have to be simple,
have to be simple,
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Priče moraju biti jednostavne,
07:36
easily grasped, easily told
to others, easily remembered.
to others, easily remembered.
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lako shvatljive, lako pamtljive,
jednostavne za prepričati.
jednostavne za prepričati.
07:40
So stories will serve dual
and conflicting purposes,
and conflicting purposes,
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Priče imaju dvostruke,
suprotstavljene ciljeve
suprotstavljene ciljeve
07:43
and very often they will lead us astray.
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i često će nas odvesti u krivom smjeru.
07:46
I used to think I was
within the camp of economists,
within the camp of economists,
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Prije sam mislio da pripadam
kampu ekonomista,
kampu ekonomista,
07:49
I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
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bio sam jedan od pozitivaca,
i bio sam u dosluhu s drugim pozitivcima
i bio sam u dosluhu s drugim pozitivcima
07:53
and we were fighting
the ideas of the bad guys.
the ideas of the bad guys.
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i borili smo se protiv ideja negativaca.
07:56
I used to think that!
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Prije sam to vjerovao!
07:58
And probably, I was wrong.
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I vjerojatno sam bio u krivu.
08:00
Maybe sometimes, I'm one of the good guys,
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Katkad sam možda pozitivac,
08:02
but on some issues, I finally realized:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
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ali u nekim situacijama, shvatio sam:
"Pa ja nisam pozitivac."
"Pa ja nisam pozitivac."
08:07
I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil intent,
in the sense of having evil intent,
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Možda nisam negativac
jer nemam zle namjere,
jer nemam zle namjere,
08:10
but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story.
to get away with that story.
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no, teško mi je bilo
povjerovati u tu priču.
povjerovati u tu priču.
08:15
One interesting thing
about cognitive biases
about cognitive biases
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Zanimljivo je o kognitivnim predrasudama
08:19
is they are the subject
of so many books these days.
of so many books these days.
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da su one danas tema mnogih knjiga.
08:22
There's the Nudge book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
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To su knjige "Nudge", "Sway", "Blink",
08:26
like the one-title book,
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naslovi od jedne riječi,
08:28
all about the ways in which we screw up.
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svi o načinima na koje obično zabrljamo.
08:31
And there are so many ways,
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Toliko je načina,
08:33
but what I find interesting
is that none of these books identify
is that none of these books identify
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3728
no, zanimljivo je da nijedna
od ovih knjige ne identificira
od ovih knjige ne identificira
08:36
what, to me, is the single, central,
most important way we screw up,
most important way we screw up,
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4202
jedan, središnji, najvažniji
način na koji zabrljamo,
način na koji zabrljamo,
08:40
and that is that we tell
ourselves too many stories,
ourselves too many stories,
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a to je da si pričamo previše priča,
08:44
or we are too easily seduced by stories.
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ili nas je prelako zavesti pričama.
08:47
Why don't these books tell us that?
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Zašto nam te knjige to ne govore?
08:49
It's because the books themselves
are all about stories.
are all about stories.
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Zato što su same te knjige o pričama.
08:53
The more of these books you read,
you're learning about some of your biases,
you're learning about some of your biases,
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Što ih više čitate,
više učite o svojim predrasudama,
više učite o svojim predrasudama,
08:56
but you're making some
of your other biases essentially worse.
of your other biases essentially worse.
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no, neke od svojih predrasuda,
u biti, još i pogoršavate.
u biti, još i pogoršavate.
09:00
So the books themselves
are part of your cognitive bias.
are part of your cognitive bias.
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3342
Same te knjige dio su
vaše kognitivne predrasude.
vaše kognitivne predrasude.
09:04
Often, people buy them
as a kind of talisman, like:
as a kind of talisman, like:
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Često ih ljudi kupuju poput talismana:
09:07
"I bought this book. I won't be
'Predictably Irrational'."
'Predictably Irrational'."
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3867
"Kupio sam tu knjigu.
Ne želim biti predvidljivo iracionalan."
Ne želim biti predvidljivo iracionalan."
09:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:13
It's like people want to hear the worst,
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Kao da ljudi žele čuti ono najgore,
09:15
so psychologically, they can prepare
for it or defend against it.
for it or defend against it.
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3741
kako bi se psihološki
pripremili za to ili branili od toga.
pripremili za to ili branili od toga.
09:19
It's why there is
such a market for pessimism.
such a market for pessimism.
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Zato je tržište za pesimizam tako veliko.
09:22
But to think that by buying the book
gets you somewhere,
gets you somewhere,
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2903
No, razmišljanje da ćete kupnjom knjige
riješiti neke stvari,
riješiti neke stvari,
09:25
that's maybe the bigger fallacy.
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1918
možda je još veća zabluda.
09:27
It's just like the evidence that shows
that the most dangerous people
that the most dangerous people
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To je slično dokazu
da su najopasniji ljudi
da su najopasniji ljudi
09:30
are those who have been taught
some financial literacy.
some financial literacy.
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2759
oni koji su učili nešto
o financijskoj pismenosti.
o financijskoj pismenosti.
09:33
They're the ones who go out
and make the worst mistakes.
and make the worst mistakes.
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2623
Oni rade najveće pogreške.
09:36
It's the people who realize
they don't know anything at all,
they don't know anything at all,
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2864
Ljudi koji shvate da ništa ne znaju,
09:38
that end up doing pretty well.
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2009
na kraju dobro prođu.
09:41
A third problem with stories
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1563
Treći je problem s pričama
09:43
is that outsiders
manipulate us using stories,
manipulate us using stories,
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3378
u tome da drugi manipuliraju
nama pomoću priča,
nama pomoću priča,
09:46
and we all like to think advertising
only works on the other guy,
only works on the other guy,
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3406
a svi volimo misliti da su drugi ti
koji padaju na reklame,
koji padaju na reklame,
09:49
but, of course, that's not how it is,
advertising works on all of us.
advertising works on all of us.
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553939
4544
naravno da to nije točno,
svi smo podložni marketingu.
svi smo podložni marketingu.
09:54
So if you're too attached to stories,
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2313
Ako previše volite priče,
09:56
what will happen is people
selling products come along,
selling products come along,
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4212
doći će prodavači proizvoda,
10:00
and they will bundle
their product with a story.
their product with a story.
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2378
koji će svoj proizvod umotati u priču.
10:03
You're like, "Hey, a free story!"
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1647
"Besplatna priča!", pomislit ćete.
10:04
And you end up buying the product,
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1645
I na kraju ćete kupiti proizvod
10:06
because the product
and the story go together.
and the story go together.
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2190
jer ide u paketu s pričom.
10:08
(Laugther)
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1038
(Smijeh)
10:09
If you think about how capitalism works,
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1939
I kad je kapitalizam u pitanju,
10:11
there is a bias here.
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1353
postoje predrasude.
10:13
Let's consider two kinds
of stories about cars.
of stories about cars.
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2734
Razmotrimo dvije priče o automobilima.
10:16
Story A is: "Buy this car,
190
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2958
Priča A: "Kupite ovaj auto
10:19
and you will have beautiful, romantic
partners and a fascinating life."
partners and a fascinating life."
191
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3618
i imat ćete divne, romantične
partnere i fascinantan život."
partnere i fascinantan život."
10:22
(Laughter)
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1510
(Smijeh)
10:25
There are a lot of people
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589398
1230
Ima puno ljudi
10:26
who have a financial incentive
to promote that story.
to promote that story.
194
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2495
koji bi iz materijalnih razloga
podržali ovu priču.
podržali ovu priču.
10:29
But, say, the alternative story is:
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2098
No recimo da je alternativna priča:
10:31
"You don't actually need a car
as nice as your income would indicate.
as nice as your income would indicate.
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3990
"Zapravo ne trebate auto
koji je u skladu s vašim prihodom.
koji je u skladu s vašim prihodom.
10:35
What you usually do is look
at what your peers do and copy them.
at what your peers do and copy them.
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3441
Ono na što obično pazite jest
što čine vaši vršnjaci pa ih oponašate.
što čine vaši vršnjaci pa ih oponašate.
10:39
That is a good heuristic
for lots of problems,
for lots of problems,
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2144
To je dobra metoda za puno problema,
10:41
but when it comes to cars,
just buy a Toyota."
just buy a Toyota."
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2323
no, kada je riječ o autima,
samo kupite Toyotu."
samo kupite Toyotu."
10:43
(Laughter)
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2180
(Smijeh)
10:45
Maybe Toyota has an incentive there,
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1741
Možda u tome ima nešto za Toyotu,
10:47
but even Toyota is making
more money off the luxury cars,
more money off the luxury cars,
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3196
no i Toyota više zarađuje
od luksuznih automobila,
od luksuznih automobila,
10:50
and less money off the cheaper cars.
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1937
a manje od jeftinijih.
10:52
So if you think which set of stories
you end up hearing,
you end up hearing,
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2680
I priča koju ćete naposljetku čuti
10:55
you end up hearing the glamor stories,
the seductive stories,
the seductive stories,
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3480
je glamuroznija priča, ona zavodljivija,
10:58
and again I'm telling you,
don't trust them.
don't trust them.
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i kažem vam, ne vjerujte im.
11:00
There are people using
your love of stories to manipulate you.
your love of stories to manipulate you.
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4221
Ljudi iskorištavaju vašu ljubav
prema pričama da bi manipulirali vama.
prema pričama da bi manipulirali vama.
Zastanite i zapitajte se:
11:06
Pull back and say:
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1170
11:07
"What are the messages,
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1098
"Koje su to poruke,
11:08
what are the stories
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
210
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2784
koje su to priče, koje nitko
nije motiviran ispričati?"
nije motiviran ispričati?"
11:11
Start telling yourself those, and then see
if any of your decisions change.
if any of your decisions change.
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4587
Pričajte si te priče i vidjet ćete
hoćete li promijeniti odluke.
hoćete li promijeniti odluke.
11:15
That is one simple way.
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1676
Za to postoji jednostavan način.
11:17
You can never get out of the pattern
of thinking in terms of stories,
of thinking in terms of stories,
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3461
Nikad se ne možete riješiti
obrasca razmišljanja vezanog uz priče,
obrasca razmišljanja vezanog uz priče,
11:21
but you can improve the extent
to which you think in stories,
to which you think in stories,
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3636
no, barem možete ograničiti
koliko ćete razmišljati u obliku priča
koliko ćete razmišljati u obliku priča
11:24
and make some better decisions.
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2064
te donijeti neke bolje odluke.
11:27
So if I'm thinking about this talk,
I'm wondering, of course,
I'm wondering, of course,
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3154
Kada razmišljam o ovom govoru, pitam se,
11:30
what is it you take away from this talk?
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2627
koja je poruka ovog govora
koju ćete ponijeti sa sobom?
koju ćete ponijeti sa sobom?
11:33
What story do you take away
from Tyler Cowen?
from Tyler Cowen?
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3779
Koju priču nosite sa sobom
od Tylera Cowena?
od Tylera Cowena?
11:37
One story you might be
like the story of the quest.
like the story of the quest.
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3176
Jedna može biti priča o misiji.
11:40
"Tyler was a man on a quest.
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2425
"Tyler je bio čovjek s misijom.
11:43
Tyler came here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms of stories."
not to think so much in terms of stories."
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5592
Došao nam je ispričati kako ne trebamo
toliko razmišljati u okvirima priče."
toliko razmišljati u okvirima priče."
11:49
That would be a story
you could tell about this talk.
you could tell about this talk.
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2490
To je priča koju možete
ispričati o ovom govoru.
ispričati o ovom govoru.
11:51
(Laughter)
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1897
(Smijeh)
11:53
It would fit a pretty well-known pattern.
224
677805
1982
Odgovara poznatom obrascu.
11:55
You might remember it.
You could tell it to other people.
You could tell it to other people.
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679787
2889
Možda je se sjetite.
Mogli biste je ispričati drugima.
Mogli biste je ispričati drugima.
11:58
"This weird guy came, and he said,
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1720
"Taj čudak je došao i rekao
'Ne razmišljajte u okviru priča.
Ispričat ću vam što se danas dogodilo!'"
Ispričat ću vam što se danas dogodilo!'"
12:00
'Don't think in terms of stories.
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
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3400
(Smijeh)
12:03
(Laughter)
228
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1003
I vi ispričate svoju priču.
12:04
And you tell your story.
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1531
(Smijeh)
12:06
(Laugther)
230
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1641
12:08
Another possibility is
you might tell a story of rebirth.
you might tell a story of rebirth.
231
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4322
Druga je mogućnost
ispričati priču o ponovnom rođenju.
ispričati priču o ponovnom rođenju.
12:13
You might say, "I used to think
too much in terms of stories
too much in terms of stories
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4219
Možda ćete reći: "Prije sam
previše razmišljao u obliku priča,
previše razmišljao u obliku priča,
12:17
(Laughter)
233
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2742
(Smijeh)
12:20
but then I heard Tyler Cowen
234
704794
2118
no onda sam čuo Tylera Cowena
12:22
(Laughter)
235
706912
966
(Smijeh)
12:23
and now I think less in terms of stories!"
236
707878
3274
i sada manje razmišljam u obliku priča!"
12:27
That too is a narrative you will remember,
237
711152
2800
I to je priča koje ćete se sjetiti,
12:29
you can tell to other people,
and again, it may stick.
and again, it may stick.
238
713952
3821
a koju možete ispričati drugima
i možda je zapamtite.
i možda je zapamtite.
12:34
You also could tell
a story of deep tragedy.
a story of deep tragedy.
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4043
Možete pričati i priču o teškoj tragediji.
12:38
"This guy Tyler Cowen came
240
723086
1935
"Taj tip, Tyler Cowen, je došao
12:40
(Laughter)
241
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1250
(Smijeh)
12:42
and he told us not to think
in terms of stories,
in terms of stories,
242
726271
2602
i rekao nam da ne razmišljamo
u okviru priča,
u okviru priča,
12:44
but all he could do was tell us stories
243
728873
1938
no, sve što je ispričao bile su priče
12:46
(Laughter)
244
730811
1066
(Smijeh)
12:47
about how other people think
too much in terms of stories."
too much in terms of stories."
245
731877
3961
kako drugi previše razmišljaju
u okviru priča."
u okviru priča."
12:51
(Laughter)
246
735838
1959
(Smijeh)
12:54
So, today, which is it?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
247
738454
4619
Dakle što dobivate danas?
Misiju, ponovno rođenje, tragediju?
Misiju, ponovno rođenje, tragediju?
12:59
Or maybe some combination of the three?
248
743523
2493
Ili kombinaciju te tri stvari?
13:02
I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you
and I'm not here to tell you
249
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2778
Nisam siguran i ne želim vam reći
13:05
to burn your DVD player
and throw out your Tolstoy.
and throw out your Tolstoy.
250
749404
3955
da spalite svoj DVD player
i bacite Tolstoja.
i bacite Tolstoja.
13:09
To think in terms of stories
is fundamentally human.
is fundamentally human.
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4292
Ljudski je razmišljati u okviru priče.
13:14
There is a Gabriel Garcia Marquez
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
252
758231
5203
Prema memoaru G.G. Marqueza
"Živjeti da bi se pripovjedalo",
"Živjeti da bi se pripovjedalo",
13:19
that we use memory in stories
to make sense of what we've done,
to make sense of what we've done,
253
764004
3461
koristimo sjećanja u pričama
kako bismo dali smisao učinjenome,
kako bismo dali smisao učinjenome,
13:23
to give meaning to our lives, to establish
connections with other people.
connections with other people.
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dali smisao životu,
uspostavili veze s drugim ljudima.
uspostavili veze s drugim ljudima.
13:27
None of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away.
should go away, or can go away.
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Ništa od toga neće nestati,
ne bi trebalo, ni ne može nestati.
ne bi trebalo, ni ne može nestati.
13:31
But again, as an economist,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
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No, kao ekonomist, razmišljam unaprijed
13:37
the extra decision.
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o jednoj dodatnoj odluci.
13:38
Should we think more in terms of stories,
or less in terms of stories?
or less in terms of stories?
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Trebamo li više razmišljati
u okviru priča ili manje?
u okviru priča ili manje?
13:42
When we hear stories,
should we be more suspicious?
should we be more suspicious?
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Kada čujemo priče,
trebamo li biti nepovjerljiviji?
trebamo li biti nepovjerljiviji?
13:47
And what kind of stories
should we be suspicious of?
should we be suspicious of?
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Prema kakvim pričama trebamo
biti nepovjerljivi?
biti nepovjerljivi?
13:49
Again, I'm telling you it's the stories,
very often, that you like the most,
very often, that you like the most,
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I ponovno vam govorim,
najčešće su to priče koje najviše volite,
najčešće su to priče koje najviše volite,
13:54
that you find the most rewarding,
the most inspiring.
the most inspiring.
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koje su najdirljivije, najnadahnutije.
13:58
The stories that don't focus
on opportunity cost,
on opportunity cost,
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Priče koje nisu usredotočene
na cijenu nečega
na cijenu nečega
14:02
or the complex, unintended
consequences of human action,
consequences of human action,
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ili na složene, nenamjerne
posljedice ljudskog djelovanja,
posljedice ljudskog djelovanja,
14:05
because that very often
does not make for a good story.
does not make for a good story.
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jer to često nije materijal
za dobru priču.
za dobru priču.
14:09
So often a story is a story
of triumph, a story of struggle;
of triumph, a story of struggle;
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Često priče govore o uspjehu, o borbi,
14:14
there are opposing forces,
which are either evil or ignorant;
which are either evil or ignorant;
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prisutne su suprotstavljene strane,
koje su ili zle ili neobrazovane;
koje su ili zle ili neobrazovane;
14:18
there is a person on a quest,
someone making a voyage,
someone making a voyage,
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postoji osoba s misijom,
netko na putovanju,
netko na putovanju,
14:22
and a stranger coming to town.
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i stranac koji dolazi u grad.
14:24
And those are your categories,
but don't let them make you too happy.
but don't let them make you too happy.
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To su vaše kategorije,
no nemojte biti previše zadovoljni njima.
no nemojte biti previše zadovoljni njima.
14:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:33
As an alternative,
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Kao alternativa tome,
14:35
at the margin
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
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mislite unaprijed
- opet, bez paljenja Tolstoja -
- opet, bez paljenja Tolstoja -
14:39
but just be a little more messy.
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budite malo neuredniji.
14:42
If I actually had to live those journeys,
and quests, and battles,
and quests, and battles,
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Kada bih doista morao proživjeti
ta putovanja, pohode i bitke,
ta putovanja, pohode i bitke,
14:47
that would be so oppressive to me!
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kakav bi to pritisak bio za mene!
14:49
It's like, my goodness,
can't I just have my life
can't I just have my life
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Zaboga, zar ne mogu živjeti svoj život
14:51
in its messy, ordinary
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
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u svoj njegovoj neurednoj, običnoj
- oklijevam s ovom rječju - slavi,
- oklijevam s ovom rječju - slavi,
14:55
but that it's fun for me?
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ali da je meni zabavno?
14:57
Do I really have to follow
some kind of narrative?
some kind of narrative?
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Moram li pratiti slijed neke priče?
14:59
Can't I just live?
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Ne mogu li samo živjeti?
15:01
So be more comfortable with messy.
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Dopustite si nered.
15:05
Be more comfortable with agnostic,
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Dopustite si agnosticizam
15:08
and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good.
that make you feel good.
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i pritom mislim na stvari
u kojima uživate.
u kojima uživate.
15:10
It's so easy to pick out
a few areas to be agnostic in,
a few areas to be agnostic in,
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Lako je biti agnostik
u nekim područjima
u nekim područjima
15:13
and then feel good about it,
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i biti zadovoljan,
kao: "Agnostik sam
u pitanjima religije ili politike."
u pitanjima religije ili politike."
15:14
like, "I am agnostic
about religion, or politics."
about religion, or politics."
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15:18
It's a kind of portfolio move you make
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
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Tako si možete dopustiti
dogmatizam u drugim područjima, zar ne?
dogmatizam u drugim područjima, zar ne?
15:22
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:25
Sometimes,
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Katkad,
15:26
the most intellectually trustworthy people
are the ones who pick one area,
are the ones who pick one area,
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najveći intelektualci
izaberu jedno područje
izaberu jedno područje
15:29
and they are totally dogmatic in that,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
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u kojem su potpuni dogmatici,
tako tvrdoglavo nerazumni,
tako tvrdoglavo nerazumni,
15:32
that you think,
"How can they possibly believe that?"
"How can they possibly believe that?"
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da pomislite: "Kako to mogu vjerovati?"
15:35
But it soaks up their stubbornness,
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No, to upija njihovu tvrdoglavost,
15:40
and then, on other things,
they can be pretty open-minded.
they can be pretty open-minded.
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a u drugim stvarima mogu biti otvoreni.
15:43
So don't fall into the trap of thinking
because you're agnostic on some things,
because you're agnostic on some things,
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Nemojte misliti da,
ako ste agnostik u nekim područjima,
ako ste agnostik u nekim područjima,
15:46
that you're being fundamentally reasonable
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2013
to znači i da ste potpuno razumni
15:48
about your self-deception, your stories,
and your open-mindedness.
and your open-mindedness.
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kada su u pitanju samozavaravanje,
vaše priče, vaša otvorenost.
vaše priče, vaša otvorenost.
15:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:54
[Think about] this idea of hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
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Razmislite o toj ideji lelujanja,
epistemološkog lelujanja,
epistemološkog lelujanja,
15:58
and messiness, and incompleteness,
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neredu i nepotpunosti
16:02
[and how] not everything
ties up into a neat bow,
ties up into a neat bow,
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i kako se sve ne može lijepo upakirati,
16:04
and you're really not on a journey here.
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a ovo ovdje zapravo nije putovanje.
16:07
You're here for some
messy reason or reasons,
messy reason or reasons,
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Ovdje ste zbog nekog zbrkanog razloga,
16:10
and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
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i možda ne znate što je to,
a možda ni ja ne znam što je to,
a možda ni ja ne znam što je to,
16:14
but anyway, I'm happy to be invited,
and thank you all for listening.
and thank you all for listening.
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no, drago mi je što sam pozvan,
hvala vam svima na slušanju.
hvala vam svima na slušanju.
16:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:19
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - EconomistIn his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.
Why you should listen
Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.
His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.
Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.
Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com