ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.

Why you should listen

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.

His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.

Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.

Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>

More profile about the speaker
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxMidAtlantic

Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of simple stories

Filmed:
478,342 views

Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
- Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:36
I was told to come here
and tell you all stories故事,
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我被告知要來這裡
告訴你們所有人幾個故事,
00:39
but what I'd like to do is instead代替
tell you why I'm suspicious可疑 of stories故事,
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但我反而想要告訴你們
我為什麼對故事抱持猜疑、
00:43
why stories故事 make me nervous緊張.
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為什麼故事會讓我緊張。
00:45
In fact事實, the more inspired啟發
a story故事 makes品牌 me feel,
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事實上,故事越讓我感到鼓舞,
00:49
very often經常, the more nervous緊張 I get.
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通常,我就會越緊張。
00:51
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:52
So the best最好 stories故事
are often經常 the trickiest最棘手 ones那些.
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所以,最棒的故事通常
也是最微妙棘手的。
00:55
The good and bad things about stories故事
is that they are a kind of filter過濾.
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故事的好處和壞處是,
它們算是種過濾器。
00:58
They take a lot of information信息,
and they leave離開 some of it out,
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它們會帶有許多資訊,
它們會遺漏一些資訊,
01:01
and they keep some of it in.
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它們也會隱藏一些資訊。
01:03
But the thing about this filter過濾 is
that it always leaves樹葉 the same相同 things in.
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但這種過濾器有一點特色,
就是它們總是會留下同樣的東西。
01:07
You're always left
with the same相同 few少數 simple簡單 stories故事.
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最後你總是會得到
同樣的少數幾個簡單故事。
01:10
There is the old saying
that just about every一切 story故事
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有句老諺語說,幾乎每個故事
01:13
can be summed總結 up
as "a stranger陌生人 came來了 to town."
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都可以總結成
「一個陌生人來到鎮上。」
01:16
There is a book by Christopher克里斯托弗 Booker布克,
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這是一本克里斯多夫布克的書,
01:18
where he claims索賠 there are really
just seven types類型 of stories故事.
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書中他宣稱,
其實真正只有七種故事存在:
01:21
There is monster怪物, rags碎布 to riches富有, quest尋求,
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怪獸、破碎到富饒、追尋、
01:23
voyage航程 and return返回,
comedy喜劇, tragedy悲劇, rebirth新生.
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航程與返程、喜劇、悲劇、重生。
01:27
You don't have to agree同意
with that list名單 exactly究竟,
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你並不需要完全同意這個清單,
01:30
but the point is this:
if you think in terms條款 of stories故事,
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但重點是:
如果從故事方面來思考,
01:33
you're telling告訴 yourself你自己 the same相同 things
over and over again.
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你其實是在一而再再而三地
告訴你自己同樣的事情。
01:37
There was a study研究 doneDONE,
we asked some people-人--
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我們做了一項研究,
我們要求人們……
01:46
people were asked to describe描述 their lives生活.
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人們被要求描述他們的人生,
01:49
When asked to describe描述 their lives生活,
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當人們被要求描述他們的人生,
01:51
what is interesting有趣
is how few少數 people said "mess食堂".
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有趣的是,人們很少會以
「一團糟」來形容。
01:54
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:56
It's probably大概 the best最好 answer回答,
I don't mean that in a bad way.
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那可能是最好的答案,
我指的一團糟沒有不好的意思,
02:00
"Mess食堂" can be liberating解放,
"mess食堂" can be empowering授權,
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「一團糟」可能是很自由的,
「一團糟」可能讓人覺得有自主權,
02:02
"mess食堂" can be a way
of drawing畫畫 upon multiple strengths優勢.
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「一團糟」可能是
運用多項優點的方式。
02:06
But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey旅程."
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但,人們想說的是
「我的人生是一趟旅程。」
02:10
51% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story故事.
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51% 的人想要把
他/她的人生轉變成一個故事,
02:15
11% said, "My life is a battle戰鬥."
Again, that is a kind of story故事.
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11% 的人說「我的人生是一場戰役」,
那也同樣算是一種故事,
02:20
8% said, "My life is a novel小說."
5% said, "My life is a play."
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8% 的人說「我的人生是一部小說」,
5% 的人說「我的人生是一齣劇」。
02:24
I don't think anyone任何人 said,
"My life is a reality現實 TV電視 show顯示."
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我想應該是沒有人說
「我的人生是場電視真人實境秀」。
02:27
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:28
But again, we're imposing威風 order訂購
on the mess食堂 we observe,
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但,我們會在我們觀察到的一團糟
上面加上秩序,
02:32
and it's taking服用 the same相同 patterns模式,
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用的是同樣的模式。
02:34
and the thing is when something
is in the form形成 of a story故事,
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問題是,當一件事
以故事的形式呈現,
02:37
often經常, we remember記得 it when we shouldn't不能.
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我們通常會在
不該記得它的時候記得它。
02:39
So how many許多 of you know the story故事
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在座有多少人知道
02:41
about George喬治 Washington華盛頓
and the cherry櫻桃 tree?
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華盛頓和櫻桃樹的故事?
02:44
It's not obvious明顯 that is
exactly究竟 what happened發生.
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真正發生的事情不見得是那樣。
02:46
The story故事 of Paul保羅 Revere尊敬, it's not obvious明顯
that that is exactly究竟 the way it happened發生.
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保羅 · 列維爾的故事,
它真正發生的方式不見得是那樣。
02:51
So again, we should be
suspicious可疑 of stories故事.
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所以,我們應該要對故事抱持猜疑,
02:55
We're biologically生物 programmed程序
to respond響應 to them.
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我們在生物上的天性
就是會對故事會有所反應。
02:58
They contain包含 a lot of information信息.
They have social社會 power功率.
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故事包含很多資訊,
故事有著社交的力量,
03:01
They connect us to other people.
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故事將我們與他人連結。
03:03
So they are like a candy糖果 that we're fed美聯儲
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所以故事像是
當我們在消化政治資訊時、
03:05
when we consume消耗 political政治 information信息,
when we read novels小說.
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當我們在閱讀小說時,
餵給我們吃的糖果。
03:09
When we read non-fiction非小說類 books圖書,
we're really being存在 fed美聯儲 stories故事.
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當我們閱讀非小說類的書籍時,
我們其實正被餵食著故事。
03:12
Non-fiction非小說 is, in a sense,
the new fiction小說.
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在某種意義上,
非小說類就是一種新小說類,
03:15
The book may可能 happen發生 to say true真正 things,
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書所說的有可能剛好是真實的,
03:18
but again, everything's一切的 taking服用
the same相同 form形成 of these stories故事.
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但同樣地,一切都是
採用這些故事的形式。
03:22
So what are the problems問題
of relying依托 too heavily嚴重 on stories故事?
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所以,太過仰賴故事會有什麼問題?
03:26
You view視圖 your life like this
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你用這種方式來看你的人生,
03:28
instead代替 of the mess食堂
that it is or it ought應該 to be.
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而不是看到它真正一團糟的樣子。
03:31
But more specifically特別,
I think of a few少數 major重大的 problems問題
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更明確來說,我想,
如果在敘述上我們
03:35
when we think too much
in terms條款 of narrative敘述.
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想太多時,會有幾個重大問題。
03:39
First, narratives敘事 tend趨向 to be too simple簡單,
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第一,敘述通常都會太簡單。
03:41
for the point of a narrative敘述
is to strip跳閘 it away,
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因為敘述的意義
就是要做簡單的揭露,
03:43
not just into 18 minutes分鐘,
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不僅僅只簡化到 18 分鐘的敘述,
03:45
but most narratives敘事
you can present當下 in a sentence句子 or two.
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大部份的敘述都可以
用一到兩句話來呈現。
03:48
When you strip跳閘 away detail詳情,
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當你把細節除掉時,
03:50
you tend趨向 to tell stories故事
in terms條款 of good versus evil邪惡,
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你的故事就會傾向變成
正義對抗邪惡,
03:54
whether是否 it's a story故事 about your own擁有 life
or a story故事 about politics政治.
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不論是你的人生故事
或是關於政治的故事。
03:58
I know some things actually其實 are
good versus evil邪惡, we all know this, right?
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我知道有些事的確是正邪之戰,
我們都知道這點,對吧?
04:02
But I think, as a general一般 rule規則,
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但我認為,就一般規則而言,
04:03
we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil邪惡 story故事.
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我們太傾向去訴說
正義對抗邪惡的故事了。
04:07
As a simple簡單 rule規則 of thumb拇指,
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就經驗法則來說,
04:09
just imagine想像 that every一切 time
you're telling告訴 a good versus evil邪惡 story故事,
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想像一下每次你訴說一個
正義對抗邪惡的故事,
04:13
you're basically基本上 lowering降低 your IQ智商
by ten points or more.
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你就會把你的智商降低十分或更多。
04:17
If you just adopt採用 that
as a kind of inner mental心理 habit習慣,
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如果你把這當作是一種
內在的心理習慣,
04:20
it's, in my view視圖, one way to get
a lot smarter聰明 pretty漂亮 quickly很快.
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就我看來,這是很快
變聰明許多的方法之一,
04:24
You don't have to read any books圖書.
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你不用閱讀任何書籍,
04:25
Just imagine想像 yourself你自己 pressing緊迫 a button按鍵
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只要想像,每當你訴說一個正義對抗
04:27
every一切 time you tell
the good versus evil邪惡 story故事,
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邪惡的故事時,
你就自己按下一個按鈕,
04:30
and by pressing緊迫 that button按鍵,
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而按下那個按鈕,
04:32
you're lowering降低 your IQ智商
by ten points or more.
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你就會把你的智商降低十分或更多。
04:35
Another另一個 set of stories故事 that are popular-流行--
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還有另一種故事也很受歡迎,
04:37
if you know Oliver奧利弗 Stone's斯通的 movies電影,
or Michael邁克爾 Moore's摩爾定律 movies電影,
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如果你知道奧利佛 · 史東
或麥可 · 摩爾的電影,
04:40
you can't make a movie電影 and say:
"It was all a big accident事故."
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你不能拍一部電影並說:
「這全是個天大的意外。」
04:44
No, it has to be a conspiracy陰謀,
people plotting繪製 together一起,
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不行,它一定得要是一種陰謀,
要由人們一起策劃,
04:48
because in a story故事,
a story故事 is about intention意向.
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因為在故事中,重點是要有意圖。
04:52
A story故事 is not about spontaneous自發 order訂購
or complex複雜 human人的 institutions機構
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故事的重點不是自發性的秩序,
或是複雜的人類制度,
04:56
which哪一個 are the product產品 of human人的 action行動,
but not of human人的 design設計.
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這些都是人類行為的產物,
並非人類的設計。
04:59
No, a story故事 is about evil邪惡 people
plotting繪製 together一起.
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不,故事的重點是
邪惡的人們一起進行策劃。
05:03
So when you hear stories故事 about plots地塊,
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所以當你聽到關於陰謀的故事,
05:06
or even stories故事 about good people
plotting繪製 things together一起,
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或甚至關於好人
一同策劃某事的故事,
05:09
just like when you're watching觀看 movies電影,
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就像你在看電影一樣,
05:11
this, again, is reason原因 to be suspicious可疑.
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同樣地,這也是要
抱持猜疑的理由之一。
05:14
As a good rule規則 of thumb拇指, if you're asking:
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如果你有下面這個疑問:
05:16
"When I hear a story故事, when should I
be especially特別 suspicious可疑?"
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「當我聽到一個故事時,
在何時要特別地抱持猜疑?」
05:19
If you hear a story故事 and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie電影!"
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很好的經驗法則就是
當你聽完故事後想著
「哇,這能拍成很棒的電影」時。
05:24
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:25
That's when the "uh-oh嗯,哦" reaction反應
should pop流行的 in a bit more,
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那就是「喔,不妙」的反應
應該要更常出現的時候了,
05:29
and you should start開始 thinking思維 in terms條款
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且你應該要開始思考
05:31
of how the whole整個 thing
is maybe a bit of a mess食堂.
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這整件事是不是有點可能是一團糟。
05:35
Another另一個 common共同 story故事 or storyline故事情節 is
the claim要求 that we "have to get tough強硬".
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另一種常見故事或故事線,
是「我們得要強硬起來」的主張。
05:41
You'll你會 hear this in so many許多 contexts上下文.
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在許多的情境中都會聽到這點:
05:43
We have to get tough強硬 with the banks銀行.
We had to get tough強硬 with the labor勞動 unions工會.
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對銀行,我們得要強硬起來。
對勞工工會,我們得要強硬起來。
05:48
We need to get tough強硬
with some other country國家,
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對某些其他國家、
對某些外國獨裁者、
05:50
some foreign國外 dictator獨裁者,
someone有人 we're negotiating談判 with.
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對我們在協商的對象,
我們需要強硬起來。
05:54
Again, the point is not
against反對 getting得到 tough強硬.
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同樣地,重點並不是反對
要強硬起來這一點,
05:57
Sometimes有時 we should get tough強硬.
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有時我們的確需要強硬,
05:58
That we got tough強硬 with the Nazis納粹
was a good thing.
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我們對納粹強硬就是好事。
06:02
But this is again a story故事 we fall秋季 back
upon all too readily容易, all too quickly很快.
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但同樣地,我們太容易、
太快速就依賴這個故事了。
06:08
When we don't really know
why something happened發生,
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當我們實際上並不知道
某事為什麼發生時,
06:10
we blame someone有人, and we say:
"We need to get tough強硬 with them!"
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我們會怪罪某人,我們會說:
「我們需要對他們強硬起來!」
06:14
As if it had never occurred發生
to your predecessor前任,
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說得好像你的前人都沒想到
06:16
this idea理念 of getting得到 tough強硬.
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要強硬起來的這個想法一樣。
06:18
I view視圖 it usually平時
as a kind of mental心理 laziness怠惰.
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我通常將它視為是一種心理惰性。
06:21
It's a simple簡單 story故事 you tell:
"We need to get tough強硬,
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你說的是一個很簡單的故事:
「我們需要強硬起來,
06:25
we needed需要 to get tough強硬,
we will have to get tough強硬."
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我們需要強硬起來,
我們將會需要強硬起來。」
06:27
Usually平時, that is a kind of warning警告 signal信號.
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通常,那是一種警訊。
06:31
Another另一個 kind of problem問題 with stories故事 is
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故事的另一種問題是
06:34
you can only fit適合 so many許多 stories故事
into your mind心神 at once一旦,
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你一次只能在你的腦中
放入這麼多故事,
06:38
or in the course課程 of a day,
or even over the course課程 of a lifetime一生.
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或是在一天中、甚至在一生中,
就只能放入這麼多故事。
06:41
So your stories故事 are serving服務
too many許多 purposes目的.
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所以你的故事要達到太多的目的。
06:44
For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning早上,
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比如,只是為了早上起床這件事,
06:46
you tell yourself你自己 the story故事
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你就要告訴你自己一個故事,
06:49
that your job工作 is really important重要,
what you're doing is really important重要
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說你的工作極重要,
你所做的事極重要。
06:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:54
and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story故事 even when it's not.
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也許的確如此,即便不是如此,
我仍然會告訴我自己那個故事。
07:00
And you know what? That story故事 works作品.
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你知道嗎,那個故事有用,
07:02
It gets得到 me out of bed.
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它能讓我起床。
07:04
It's a kind of self-deception自欺欺人,
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它是某種自我欺騙,
07:06
but the problem問題 comes
when I need to change更改 that story故事.
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但當我需要改變
那個故事時,問題就來了。
07:09
The whole整個 point of the story故事 is
that I grab onto it and I hold保持 it,
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故事的意義就是我緊緊抓著它不放,
07:13
and it gets得到 me out of bed.
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而它能讓我起床。
07:15
So when I'm really doing something
that is actually其實 just a waste浪費 of time,
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所以當我真的在我的
一團糟人生中做著
07:19
in my mess食堂 of a life,
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根本就是浪費時間的事情時,
07:20
I'm too tied into my story故事
that got me out of bed,
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我跟那個讓我起床的故事
被緊緊綁在一起,
07:25
and ideally理想, I ought應該 to have some
very complex複雜 story故事 map地圖 in my mind心神,
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理想上,我腦中應該要有
某種非常複雜的故事地圖,
07:29
you know, with combinatorialscombinatorials
and a matrix矩陣 of computation計算, and the like,
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你知道的,有組合數學和
矩陣計算的那類故事地圖,
07:32
but that is not how stories故事 work.
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但故事並不是這樣運作的。
07:34
Stories故事 in order訂購 to work
have to be simple簡單,
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能運作的故事,必須要是簡單的、
07:36
easily容易 grasped掌握, easily容易 told
to others其他, easily容易 remembered記得.
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容易理解、容易
向他人訴說、容易被記住。
07:40
So stories故事 will serve服務 dual
and conflicting衝突的 purposes目的,
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所以故事能達成
兩個互相矛盾的目的,
07:43
and very often經常 they will lead us astray走錯.
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且故事通常會把我們引入歧途。
07:46
I used to think I was
within the camp of economists經濟學家,
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我以前認為我是在經濟學家的陣營,
07:49
I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied聯盟的 with other good guys,
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我是好人之一,
我和其他好人是同盟,
07:53
and we were fighting戰鬥
the ideas思路 of the bad guys.
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我們在對抗壞人的想法。
07:56
I used to think that!
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我以前是這樣想的!
07:58
And probably大概, I was wrong錯誤.
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很可能,我以前是錯的。
08:00
Maybe sometimes有時, I'm one of the good guys,
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也許,有時,我是好人之一,
08:02
but on some issues問題, I finally最後 realized實現:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
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但針對某些議題,我終於了解到:
「嘿,我不是好人之一。」
08:07
I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil邪惡 intent意圖,
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如果壞人是用邪惡意圖來定義,
我不太確定我算是壞人,
08:10
but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story故事.
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但我很難脫離那個故事。
08:15
One interesting有趣 thing
about cognitive認知 biases偏見
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關於認知偏見,有一點很有趣,
08:19
is they are the subject學科
of so many許多 books圖書 these days.
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就是現今有很多書是
以認知偏見為主題的。
08:22
There's the Nudge微調 book,
the Sway搖擺 book, the Blink book,
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有《推力》、
《左右決策的迷惑力》、
《決斷兩秒間》這些書,
08:26
like the one-title一個標題 book,
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都是書名只有一個英文單字的書,
08:28
all about the ways方法 in which哪一個 we screw up.
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談的都是我們把事情搞砸的方式。
08:31
And there are so many許多 ways方法,
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且有好多方式能搞砸,
08:33
but what I find interesting有趣
is that none沒有 of these books圖書 identify鑑定
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但我覺得有趣的是,
這些書通通沒有點出
08:36
what, to me, is the single, central中央,
most important重要 way we screw up,
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對我而言唯一
最重要最核心的搞砸方式,
08:40
and that is that we tell
ourselves我們自己 too many許多 stories故事,
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那方式就是:
我們告訴自己太多故事,
08:44
or we are too easily容易 seduced誘惑 by stories故事.
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或是我們太容易被故事誘惑。
08:47
Why don't these books圖書 tell us that?
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為什麼這些書不告訴我們這一點?
08:49
It's because the books圖書 themselves他們自己
are all about stories故事.
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因為這些書本身就是與故事有關的。
08:53
The more of these books圖書 you read,
you're learning學習 about some of your biases偏見,
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當你閱讀越多這種書,
你的確是在瞭解自身的一些偏見,
08:56
but you're making製造 some
of your other biases偏見 essentially實質上 worse更差.
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但你也在讓你的
一些其他偏見變得更糟。
09:00
So the books圖書 themselves他們自己
are part部分 of your cognitive認知 bias偏壓.
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所以這些書本身就是
你的認知偏見的一部份。
09:04
Often經常, people buy購買 them
as a kind of talisman護符, like:
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通常,人們買書是把書
當作一種護身符,像是:
09:07
"I bought this book. I won't慣於 be
'Predictably“可以預見的是 Irrational'非理性的“."
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「這書我買過了!所以我肯定不會
有書中所講的『可預測的不理性』。」
09:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:13
It's like people want to hear the worst最差,
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就好像人們想聽到最糟的,
09:15
so psychologically心理, they can prepare準備
for it or defend保衛 against反對 it.
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所以在心理上,他們會為最糟的
做準備或是防禦抵抗最糟的。
09:19
It's why there is
such這樣 a market市場 for pessimism悲觀主義.
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這就是為什麼悲觀主義會有市場。
09:22
But to think that by buying購買 the book
gets得到 you somewhere某處,
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但若認為買一本書
就能讓你有所改變,
09:25
that's maybe the bigger fallacy謬論.
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那可能是更大的謬誤。
09:27
It's just like the evidence證據 that shows節目
that the most dangerous危險 people
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這就像是,證據顯示最危險的人是
09:30
are those who have been taught
some financial金融 literacy讀寫能力.
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被教導了一些財務素養的人。
09:33
They're the ones那些 who go out
and make the worst最差 mistakes錯誤.
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他們是那些出去犯下
最糟的錯誤的人。
09:36
It's the people who realize實現
they don't know anything at all,
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知道自己一無所知的人,
09:38
that end結束 up doing pretty漂亮 well.
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2009
才是最後表現很好的人。
09:41
A third第三 problem問題 with stories故事
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故事的第三個問題:
09:43
is that outsiders外人
manipulate操作 us using運用 stories故事,
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外人用故事來操縱我們,
09:46
and we all like to think advertising廣告
only works作品 on the other guy,
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且我們都認為,
廣告只對其他人有用,
09:49
but, of course課程, that's not how it is,
advertising廣告 works作品 on all of us.
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當然,並不是這樣的,
廣告對我們所有人都有用。
09:54
So if you're too attached to stories故事,
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所以如果你太愛故事,
09:56
what will happen發生 is people
selling銷售 products製品 come along沿,
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後果會是:賣產品的人會找上你,
10:00
and they will bundle
their product產品 with a story故事.
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他們會把他們的產品
和一個故事搭配在一起。
10:03
You're like, "Hey, a free自由 story故事!"
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你的反應會是:
「嘿,免費的故事耶!」
10:04
And you end結束 up buying購買 the product產品,
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最後你會買下那個產品,
10:06
because the product產品
and the story故事 go together一起.
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因為故事是和產品搭配在一起的。
10:08
(LaugtherLaugther)
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(笑聲)
10:09
If you think about how capitalism資本主義 works作品,
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如果你想想看資本主義如何運作,
10:11
there is a bias偏壓 here.
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它有個偏見。
10:13
Let's consider考慮 two kinds
of stories故事 about cars汽車.
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我們來考慮關於汽車的兩種故事。
10:16
Story故事 A is: "Buy購買 this car汽車,
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故事一:「買這台汽車,
10:19
and you will have beautiful美麗, romantic浪漫
partners夥伴 and a fascinating迷人 life."
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你就會有美麗浪漫的伙伴
以及迷人的人生。」
10:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:25
There are a lot of people
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有很多人
10:26
who have a financial金融 incentive激勵
to promote促進 that story故事.
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在金錢的激勵下去宣傳那個故事。
10:29
But, say, the alternative替代 story故事 is:
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但假設另一個故事是:
10:31
"You don't actually其實 need a car汽車
as nice不錯 as your income收入 would indicate表明.
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「你其實不需要一台符合
你那不錯的收入水平的汽車。
10:35
What you usually平時 do is look
at what your peers同行 do and copy複製 them.
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你通常會看你的同儕做什麼,
然後就依樣畫葫蘆。
10:39
That is a good heuristic啟發式
for lots of problems問題,
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對很多問題而言,那是個好啟發,
10:41
but when it comes to cars汽車,
just buy購買 a Toyota豐田."
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但就汽車而言,買豐田的就對了。」
10:43
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:45
Maybe Toyota豐田 has an incentive激勵 there,
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也許豐田有其銷售動機,
10:47
but even Toyota豐田 is making製造
more money off the luxury豪華 cars汽車,
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但即使是豐田也從
豪華車款賺更多錢,
10:50
and less money off the cheaper便宜 cars汽車.
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便宜的車賺的錢則比較少。
10:52
So if you think which哪一個 set of stories故事
you end結束 up hearing聽力,
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所以,想想你最後會聽哪種故事,
10:55
you end結束 up hearing聽力 the glamor魅力 stories故事,
the seductive妖媚 stories故事,
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你最後聽的是迷人、誘人的故事。
10:58
and again I'm telling告訴 you,
don't trust相信 them.
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我再次告訴各位,
不要相信這些故事。
11:00
There are people using運用
your love of stories故事 to manipulate操作 you.
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有人在利用你
對故事的喜愛來操縱你。
11:06
Pull back and say:
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退一步,並說:
11:07
"What are the messages消息,
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「訊息是什麼?
11:08
what are the stories故事
that no one has an incentive激勵 to tell?"
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沒有人有動機去訴說的故事
是什麼故事?」
11:11
Start開始 telling告訴 yourself你自己 those, and then see
if any of your decisions決定 change更改.
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開始告訴你自己這些結論,
看看你的決策是否會因此改變。
11:15
That is one simple簡單 way.
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那是一種簡單的方式。
11:17
You can never get out of the pattern模式
of thinking思維 in terms條款 of stories故事,
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就故事而言,你永遠無法
脫離那種思考模式,
11:21
but you can improve提高 the extent程度
to which哪一個 you think in stories故事,
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但你能夠改善在故事中
你思考的程度,
11:24
and make some better decisions決定.
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並做出更好的決策。
11:27
So if I'm thinking思維 about this talk,
I'm wondering想知道, of course課程,
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所以,如果我在思考關於這場演說,
當然,我會好奇想知道,
11:30
what is it you take away from this talk?
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你從這場演說會帶走什麼?
11:33
What story故事 do you take away
from Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩?
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你會從泰勒 · 卡文身上
帶走什麼故事?
11:37
One story故事 you might威力 be
like the story故事 of the quest尋求.
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可能會是個關於追尋的故事:
11:40
"Tyler泰勒 was a man on a quest尋求.
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「泰勒是個踏上追尋旅程的人。
11:43
Tyler泰勒 came來了 here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms條款 of stories故事."
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泰勒來到這裡,他叫我們
不要在故事方面想那麼多。」
11:49
That would be a story故事
you could tell about this talk.
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關於這場演說,
你可能會說的故事可能是這樣。
11:51
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
11:53
It would fit適合 a pretty漂亮 well-known知名 pattern模式.
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1982
它符合眾所皆知的模式。
11:55
You might威力 remember記得 it.
You could tell it to other people.
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你可能會記得這個故事。
你可能會把它告訴其他人。
11:58
"This weird奇怪的 guy came來了, and he said,
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「來了個怪胎,他說,
12:00
'Don't think in terms條款 of stories故事.
Let me tell you what happened發生 today今天!'"
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『不要在故事方面去想,讓我
來告訴你們今天發生了什麼事!』」
12:03
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:04
And you tell your story故事.
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你會把你的故事告訴別人。
12:06
(LaugtherLaugther)
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(笑聲)
12:08
Another另一個 possibility可能性 is
you might威力 tell a story故事 of rebirth新生.
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另一個可能性是,你可能會說
一個關於重生的故事。
12:13
You might威力 say, "I used to think
too much in terms條款 of stories故事
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你可能會說:「我以前
在故事方面想太多,
12:17
(Laughter笑聲)
233
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(笑聲)
12:20
but then I heard聽說 Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩
234
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但接著我聽了泰勒 · 卡文演說,
12:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:23
and now I think less in terms條款 of stories故事!"
236
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3274
現在我在故事方面想比較少了!」
12:27
That too is a narrative敘述 you will remember記得,
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那也是你會記得的敘述。
12:29
you can tell to other people,
and again, it may可能 stick.
238
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你可以告訴其他人,
同樣地,它也會留在記憶中。
12:34
You also could tell
a story故事 of deep tragedy悲劇.
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你也可以訴說一個
深刻悲劇的故事:
12:38
"This guy Tyler泰勒 Cowen考恩 came來了
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1935
「來了個叫泰勒的傢伙,
12:40
(Laughter笑聲)
241
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(笑聲)
12:42
and he told us not to think
in terms條款 of stories故事,
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他叫我們在故事方面不要想太多,
12:44
but all he could do was tell us stories故事
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但他也只會告訴我們故事,
12:46
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:47
about how other people think
too much in terms條款 of stories故事."
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關於人們在故事方面
想太多的故事。」
12:51
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:54
So, today今天, which哪一個 is it?
Is it like quest尋求, rebirth新生, tragedy悲劇?
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所以今天,是哪一種?
是像追尋、重生、或悲劇?
12:59
Or maybe some combination組合 of the three?
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或是這三項的組合?
13:02
I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you
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我真的不確定,
我不是來這裡告訴你
13:05
to burn燒傷 your DVDDVD player播放機
and throw out your Tolstoy托爾斯泰.
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燒掉你的 DVD 播放器、
丟掉你的托爾斯泰。
13:09
To think in terms條款 of stories故事
is fundamentally從根本上 human人的.
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從故事方面去想本來就是人的天性。
13:14
There is a Gabriel加布里埃爾 Garcia加西亞 Marquez馬爾克斯
memoir傳記 "Living活的 to Tell the Tale故事"
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加布列 · 賈西亞 · 馬奎斯
有本回憶錄叫《活著為了講述》,
13:19
that we use memory記憶 in stories故事
to make sense of what we've我們已經 doneDONE,
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我們用故事形式的記憶
來理解我們的所作所為,
13:23
to give meaning含義 to our lives生活, to establish建立
connections連接 with other people.
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賦予我們的生命意義,
與其他人建立連結。
13:27
None沒有 of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away.
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這些通通都不會消失、
不應消失、不能消失。
13:31
But again, as an economist經濟學家,
I'm thinking思維 about life on the margin餘量,
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但,身為經濟學家,
我會想的是邊際的人生,
13:37
the extra額外 decision決定.
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額外的決定。
13:38
Should we think more in terms條款 of stories故事,
or less in terms條款 of stories故事?
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我們應該在故事方面
想多一點或想少一點?
13:42
When we hear stories故事,
should we be more suspicious可疑?
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當我們聽到故事時,
我們應該要抱持猜疑嗎?
13:47
And what kind of stories故事
should we be suspicious可疑 of?
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我們應該要對哪種故事抱持猜疑?
13:49
Again, I'm telling告訴 you it's the stories故事,
very often經常, that you like the most,
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我再次告訴各位,
通常,是那些你最喜歡的故事
13:54
that you find the most rewarding獎勵,
the most inspiring鼓舞人心.
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讓你覺得最有意義、最鼓舞人心。
13:58
The stories故事 that don't focus焦點
on opportunity機會 cost成本,
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不把焦點放在機會成本、
14:02
or the complex複雜, unintended意外
consequences後果 of human人的 action行動,
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或人類行為造成的非預期之
複雜結果的故事,
14:05
because that very often經常
does not make for a good story故事.
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因為這些元素通常
不會創造出好故事。
14:09
So often經常 a story故事 is a story故事
of triumph勝利, a story故事 of struggle鬥爭;
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通常,故事都是
關於勝利、掙扎的故事;
14:14
there are opposing反對 forces軍隊,
which哪一個 are either evil邪惡 or ignorant愚昧;
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故事中有反對的力量,
這些力量不是邪惡的就是無知的;
14:18
there is a person on a quest尋求,
someone有人 making製造 a voyage航程,
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有人開始了追尋,
有人踏上了旅程,
14:22
and a stranger陌生人 coming未來 to town.
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有個陌生人來到鎮上。
14:24
And those are your categories類別,
but don't let them make you too happy快樂.
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那些是你喜歡的類別,
但別讓它們使你太開心。
14:30
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
14:33
As an alternative替代,
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另一種做法,
14:35
at the margin餘量
- again, no burning燃燒 of Tolstoy托爾斯泰 -
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在邊際上──再說一次,
不要燒了托爾斯泰──
14:39
but just be a little more messy.
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稍微多一點一團糟。
14:42
If I actually其實 had to live生活 those journeys旅程,
and quests任務, and battles戰鬥,
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如果我真的得要經歷
那些旅程、追尋、戰役,
14:47
that would be so oppressive壓抑 to me!
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那對我來說會是非常壓迫沉重的!
14:49
It's like, my goodness善良,
can't I just have my life
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類似:我的天,
我不能夠只讓我的人生
14:51
in its messy, ordinary普通
- I hesitate遲疑 to use the word - glory榮耀
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保有它一團亂的平凡榮耀嗎?
我用榮耀這個字時遲疑了──
14:55
but that it's fun開玩笑 for me?
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只要我覺得有趣就好,不行嗎?
14:57
Do I really have to follow跟隨
some kind of narrative敘述?
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我一定得要遵循某種敘述嗎?
14:59
Can't I just live生活?
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我不能只是過日子嗎?
15:01
So be more comfortable自在 with messy.
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不要對於一團糟感到不舒服。
15:05
Be more comfortable自在 with agnostic不可知,
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不要對於不可知論感到不舒服。
15:08
and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good.
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我說這些是關於那些會
讓你感到愉快的事物。
15:10
It's so easy簡單 to pick out
a few少數 areas to be agnostic不可知 in,
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很容易可以找到
幾個不可知的領域,
15:13
and then feel good about it,
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並對它們感覺很好。
15:14
like, "I am agnostic不可知
about religion宗教, or politics政治."
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類似:「我對宗教或
政治抱持不可知論。」
15:18
It's a kind of portfolio投資組合 move移動 you make
to be more dogmatic武斷的 elsewhere別處, right?
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它就像你所做的投資組合對策,
在其他地方更教條式,對嗎?
15:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
15:25
Sometimes有時,
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有時,
15:26
the most intellectually知性上 trustworthy可靠 people
are the ones那些 who pick one area,
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在智慧上最讓人覺得可信的人,
是那種選定一個領域,
15:29
and they are totally完全 dogmatic武斷的 in that,
so pig-headedly豬排輩 unreasonable不合理,
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在那個領域中完全教條化,
非常固執無法理喻,
15:32
that you think,
"How can they possibly或者 believe that?"
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會讓你心想:「他們怎麼
可能會相信那說法?」
15:35
But it soaks浸泡 up their stubbornness固執,
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但那會吸收掉他們的頑固,
15:40
and then, on other things,
they can be pretty漂亮 open-minded思想開明的.
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然後他們就會在
其他事物上很開放。
15:43
So don't fall秋季 into the trap陷阱 of thinking思維
because you're agnostic不可知 on some things,
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不要因為你對某些事抱持不可知論,
就落入思考的陷阱,
15:46
that you're being存在 fundamentally從根本上 reasonable合理
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2013
而認為你對於你的自我欺騙、
15:48
about your self-deception自欺欺人, your stories故事,
and your open-mindedness開明.
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你的故事、你的開放性
在基本上都是理性的。
15:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
15:54
[Think about] this idea理念 of hovering徘徊,
of epistemological認識論 hovering徘徊,
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想想猶豫的想法,認識論的猶豫,
15:58
and messiness雜亂, and incompleteness不完備,
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想想一團糟,想想不完整,
16:02
[and how] not everything
ties聯繫 up into a neat整齊 bow,
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想想並非一切
都能打成一個完美領結,
16:04
and you're really not on a journey旅程 here.
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且你在這裡其實
並不是在一趟旅程上。
16:07
You're here for some
messy reason原因 or reasons原因,
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你在這裡是因為
某種一團糟的理由,
16:10
and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
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也許你不知道它是什麼,
也許我不知道它是什麼,
16:14
but anyway無論如何, I'm happy快樂 to be invited邀請,
and thank you all for listening.
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但無論如何,我很高興能被邀請,
並謝謝各位的傾聽。
16:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
16:19
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Wilde Luo

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.

Why you should listen

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.

His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.

Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.

Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>

More profile about the speaker
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com