TED2013
Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?
贾森·庞丁: 科技能够解决我们的大问题吗？
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1969年，巴兹·奥尔德林踏上月球月球的历史性一步开启了人类科技的新纪元。科技的力量曾经解决过我们所有的大问题。来到今天，发生了什么？我们能展现给自己的难道只剩下手机应用了？科技杂志编辑 Jason Pontin 详细阐述了我们利用科技解决重大问题时所受到的挑战。
Jason Pontin - Editor
Jason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review. Full bio
Jason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, we used to solve big problems.
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我们曾经解决过一些大问题
00:17
On July 21st, 1969,
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1969年7月21日
00:20
Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module
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巴兹•奥尔德林从阿波罗11号的登月舱里爬了出来
00:24
and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.
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踏上了宁静海 (人类首次登上月球的区域）
00:27
Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,
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当时只有阿姆斯特朗和奥尔特林二人
00:30
but their presence on the moon's gray surface
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但他们在月球上的出现
00:32
was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.
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是一系列呕心沥血努力的成果
00:38
The Apollo program was the greatest
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阿波罗计划是美国历史上
00:40
peacetime mobilization
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在和平时期的
00:41
in the history of the United States.
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最大的一次动员
00:43
To get to the moon, NASA spent
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为了登上月球，美国航空航天局
00:45
around 180 billion dollars in today's money,
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花掉了相当于今天1800亿美元的资金
00:49
or four percent of the federal budget.
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是当时4%的联邦预算
00:51
Apollo employed around 400,000 people
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阿波罗雇佣了40万雇员
00:54
and demanded the collaboration of 20,000
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集合了2万家公司
00:57
companies, universities and government agencies.
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大学和政府部门
01:01
People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.
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有人牺牲了，包括阿波罗1号的船员
01:05
But before the Apollo program ended,
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在阿波罗计划结束之前
01:08
24 men flew to the moon.
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24个人飞向过月球
01:11
Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,
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12个人曾踏上月球表面
01:14
following the death of Armstrong last year,
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奥尔德林在阿姆斯特朗去年去世以后
01:16
is now the most senior.
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成为了他们中年龄最大的一位
01:18
So why did they go?
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那他们为什么要去月球？
01:20
They didn't bring much back:
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他们并没有带很多东西回来
01:22
841 pounds of old rocks,
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841磅的古老岩石
01:25
and something all 24 later emphasized --
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和24位宇航员之后共同强调的
01:29
a new sense of the smallness
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对我们共同家园地球的渺小
01:32
and the fragility of our common home.
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和脆弱的认知
01:35
Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went
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他们为什么要去？一个愤世嫉俗的答案是
01:38
because President Kennedy wanted to show
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因为肯尼迪总统要证明他们拥有
01:40
the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.
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比苏联更好的火箭
01:44
But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962
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但是肯尼迪1962年在莱斯大学的演说
01:49
provide a better clue.
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提供了更好的线索
01:51
(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?
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（影片）肯尼迪：为什么？ 有人问为什么是月球？
01:53
Why choose this as our goal?
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为什么会选择它作为目标？
01:56
And they may well ask,
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他们同样会问
01:58
why climb the highest mountain?
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为什么要登上最高的山峰？
02:01
Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?
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为什么，35年前要飞跃过大西洋？
02:05
Why does Rice play Texas?
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为什么莱斯要同德克萨斯比赛（指大学橄榄球赛)?
02:07
We choose to go to the moon.
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讲者：我们选择月球
02:09
We choose to go to the moon.
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我们选择登上月球
02:12
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
02:17
We choose to go to the moon in this decade,
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我们选择在这个十年登上月球
02:20
and do the other things,
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以及一些其他的事情
02:22
not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
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不是因为它们容易，而是因为它们困难。
02:26
Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,
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在当时
02:28
Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East
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阿波罗计划不仅仅是西方对东方的
02:31
in the Cold War.
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冷战胜利
02:33
At the time, the strongest emotion
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在当时，最强烈的情绪
02:35
was of wonder
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是惊讶于
02:36
at the transcendent powers of technology.
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科技的无穷力量
02:40
They went because it was a big thing to do.
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他们去了是因为这是一件大事
02:45
Landing on the moon occurred in the context
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登陆月球只是一连串
02:48
of a long series of technological triumphs.
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科技大胜利中的一件事
02:51
The first half of the 20th century produced
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前半个20世纪制造出了
02:54
the assembly line and the airplane,
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生产线，飞机，
02:56
penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.
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盘尼西林和结核病疫苗
02:59
In the middle years of the century,
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在这一世纪的中期
03:00
polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.
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小儿麻痹症和天花彻底消失
03:04
Technology itself seemed to possess
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科技本身似乎拥有
03:06
what Alvin Toffler in 1970
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阿尔文•托夫勒在1970年说的
03:09
called "accelerative thrust."
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“加速推力”
03:11
For most of human history,
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在绝大部分的人类历史中
03:13
we could go no faster than a horse
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我们都无法比马
03:16
or a boat with a sail,
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或帆船更快
03:18
but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10
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但在1969年，阿波罗的10名船员们的
03:20
flew at 25,000 miles an hour.
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飞行速度是每小时25000英里
03:24
Since 1970, no human beings
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1970年以后
03:27
have been back to the moon.
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再也没有人类回到过月球
03:29
No one has traveled faster than the crew
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没有人再比阿波罗10号的船员
03:31
of Apollo 10,
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更快
03:33
and blithe optimism about technology's powers
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对于科技力量的乐观
03:36
has evaporated
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已消失殆尽
03:38
as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,
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而那些我们曾寄望于科技解决的大问题
03:42
such as going to Mars,
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例如前往火星
03:44
creating clean energy, curing cancer,
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创造干净的能源，治愈癌症
03:47
or feeding the world have come to seem
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甚至养活全世界都变得
03:50
intractably hard.
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非常棘手困难
03:53
I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.
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我仍记得收看阿波罗17号升空的场面
03:57
I was five years old,
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我当时5岁
03:59
and my mother told me not to stare
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妈妈告诉我不要盯着
04:01
at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.
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土星五号燃烧着的推进器
04:04
I vaguely knew this was to be the last
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我模糊地知道这是最后一次
04:07
of the moon missions,
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月球计划
04:08
but I was absolutely certain there would be
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但是我确信在我的有生之年
04:12
Mars colonies in my lifetime.
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火星殖民地将出现
04:15
So "Something happened
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所以，“科技力量解决大问题
04:18
to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"
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的能力出现了问题”这一观点
04:22
has become a commonplace.
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变得司空见惯
04:24
You hear it all the time.
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你常常能听到
04:26
We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.
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我们在TED的过去两天里就听到过
04:29
It feels as if technologists have diverted us
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感觉科技取悦我们丰富自己
04:33
and enriched themselves with trivial toys,
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通过的是一些无足轻重的玩具
04:36
with things like iPhones and apps and social media,
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像是iPhone，Apps和社交网络
04:39
or algorithms that speed automated trading.
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或是加速自动交易的算法
04:43
There's nothing wrong with most of these things.
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这些事情并没有什么错
04:45
They've expanded and enriched our lives.
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他们延伸並丰富了我们的生活
04:48
But they don't solve humanity's big problems.
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但是他们不能解决人类的大问题
04:53
What happened?
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发生了什么？
04:54
So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,
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在硅谷有一个狭隘的解释
04:59
which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies
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他们承认，有野心的公司募得的资金更少了
05:03
than it did in the years when it financed
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相比于早些年的
05:05
Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.
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英特尔，微软，苹果和基因泰克
05:08
Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,
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硅谷说，市场是罪魁祸首
05:11
in particular the incentives that venture capitalists
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特别是风险投资家提供给
05:14
offer to entrepreneurs.
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企业家的奖励
05:15
Silicon Valley says that venture investing
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硅谷说风投资金的投资方向
05:17
shifted away from funding transformational ideas
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由彻底变革型类的想法
05:21
and towards funding incremental problems
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转移到了能够逐步解决的问题
05:24
or even fake problems.
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甚至是虚假的问题上
05:26
But I don't think that explanation is good enough.
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不过我不认为这样的解释就够了
05:29
It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.
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它只是解释了硅谷的问题
05:33
Even when venture capitalists were at their most
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哪怕当风投家们在他们最能承受风险的时候
05:36
risk-happy, they preferred small investments,
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他们也是更愿意做小型的投资
05:38
tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.
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有可能在十年内退出的微小投资
05:42
V.C.s have always struggled
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风投资本在科技上的投资
05:45
to invest profitably in technologies such as energy
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总是难以获得回报
05:48
whose capital requirements are huge
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例如是需要大量投资
05:50
and whose development is long and lengthy,
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和长期发展过程的能源行业
05:53
and V.C.s have never, never funded the development
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风投资本也从来没有
05:56
of technologies meant to solve big problems
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投资过能够解决
05:59
that possess no immediate commercial value.
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没有即时商业价值的大问题
06:01
No, the reasons we can't solve big problems
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不，我们不能解决大问题的原因
06:04
are more complicated and more profound.
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更加的复杂和深层次
06:08
Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.
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有时候我们选择不去解决一些大问题
06:11
We could go to Mars if we want.
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如果我们愿意，我们可以去火星
06:13
NASA even has the outline of a plan.
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NASA甚至有了一个计划大纲
06:16
But going to Mars would follow a political decision
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但去火星需要一个由民众诉求产生的政治决策
06:19
with popular appeal, and that will never happen.
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但那永远也不会发生
06:23
We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks
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我们不去火星，因为每个人都认为
06:26
there are more important things
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在地球上我们有
06:27
to do here on Earth.
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更重要的事情要做
06:30
Sometimes, we can't solve big problems
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有时候，我们无法解决一些大问题
06:33
because our political systems fail.
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是因为政治系统的失败
06:35
Today, less than two percent
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如今，少于2%的
06:37
of the world's energy consumption
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能源消耗
06:39
derives from advanced, renewable sources
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来自于先进的，可再生的能源
06:41
such as solar, wind and biofuels,
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例如太阳能，风能和生物能源
06:44
less than two percent,
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少于百分之二
06:46
and the reason is purely economic.
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这纯粹是经济问题
06:48
Coal and natural gas are cheaper
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煤炭和天然气比太阳能
06:50
than solar and wind,
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和风能更便宜
06:52
and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.
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石油比生物燃料便宜
06:54
We want alternative energy sources
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我们需要的在价格上
06:57
that can compete on price. None exist.
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拥有竞争力的替代能源，并不存在
07:00
Now, technologists, business leaders
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现在，科技人员，商业领袖
07:03
and economists all basically agree
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和经济学家基本都同意
07:05
on what national policies and international treaties
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国家政策和国际条约
07:09
would spur the development of alternative energy:
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将可以刺激替代能源的发展
07:12
mostly, a significant increase in energy
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通过显著增加新能源的
07:15
research and development,
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研究和发展
07:16
and some kind of price on carbon.
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和对碳排放的征税
07:19
But there's no hope in the present political climate
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但在现今的政治气候下
07:22
that we will see U.S. energy policy
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没望可以看到美国的能源政策
07:24
or international treaties that reflect that consensus.
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和国际条约能够反映这一共识
07:29
Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological
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有些时候，那些看起来是科技上的大问题
07:34
turn out not to be so.
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其实却不是
07:36
Famines were long understood to be caused
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饥荒长期以来被认为是
07:39
by failures in food supply.
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食物短缺造成的
07:41
But 30 years of research have taught us
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但通过30年的研究发现
07:43
that famines are political crises
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饥荒是由于政治危机
07:46
that catastrophically affect food distribution.
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灾难性地影响了食物分配造成的
07:50
Technology can improve things like crop yields
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科技可以增加作物产量
07:53
or systems for storing and transporting food,
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或帮助食物的储存和运输
07:57
but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.
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但是有糟糕的政府就会有饥荒
08:02
Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution
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最后，一些大问题会被逃避解决
08:06
because we don't really understand the problem.
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因为人们不了解这些问题
08:09
President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,
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尼克松总统在1971年对癌症宣战
08:14
but we soon discovered
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但我们很快发现
08:15
there are many kinds of cancer,
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有太多种的癌症
08:18
most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,
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大多数如恶魔般难以治疗
08:22
and it is only in the last 10 years
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直到过去十年
08:24
that effective, viable therapies
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有效可行的治疗方法
08:26
have come to seem real.
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才开始出现
08:28
Hard problems are hard.
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困难的问题就是很难解决
08:31
It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.
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这不代表科技无法解决大问题
08:36
We can, we must, but these four elements
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我们可以，但以下四个要素
08:40
must all be present:
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要同时满足
08:41
Political leaders and the public
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政治领袖和群众
08:43
must care to solve a problem;
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必须关心解决这个问题
08:45
institutions must support its solution;
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必须有机构支持其解决方案
08:48
It must really be a technological problem;
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其必须是技术上的问题
08:51
and we must understand it.
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我们必须了解它
08:55
The Apollo mission,
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阿波罗计划
08:57
which has become a kind of metaphor
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已经成为科技能够
08:59
for technology's capacity to solve big problems,
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解决大问题的象征
09:03
met these criteria.
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便符合这些要素
09:05
But it is an irreproducible model for the future.
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但这是一个不可复制的案例
09:08
It is not 1961.
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现在已经不是1961年
09:10
There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,
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已经没有冷战中的军备竞赛
09:14
no politician like John Kennedy
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已经没有肯尼迪这样的政治家
09:16
who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,
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会给困难和危险披上英雄主义色彩
09:20
and no popular science fictional mythology
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没有流行的科幻神话
09:23
such as exploring the solar system.
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例如探索太阳系
09:26
Most of all, going to the moon
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最重要的是，去月球
09:28
turned out to be easy.
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已经变得容易
09:30
It was just three days away.
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路上只需要三天而已
09:32
And arguably it wasn't even solving
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而且有争议地说，这其实
09:35
much of a problem.
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也没解决什么问题
09:38
We are left alone with our day,
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我们继续着我们的生活
09:42
and the solutions of the future will be harder won.
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而未来的问题将更难解决
09:47
God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.
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谁知道呢，我们并不缺少挑战
09:50
Thank you very much.
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谢谢
09:51
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jason Pontin - EditorJason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review.
Why you should listen
As the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review, Jason Pontin looks into the future, and thinks deeply about what technologies are going to get us there. Pontin has been editor-in-chief of the magazine since 2004 and publisher since 2005, at which point he began its transition to a digital-first magazine. Pontin reduced the number of annual print issues from eleven to six while refocusing the publication's energy toward original daily content. From 1996 to 2002, Pontin was the editor of the now-defunct Red Herring magazine.
Jason Pontin | Speaker | TED.com