TED2013
Jason Pontin: Can technology solve our big problems?
Jason Pontin: Ali lahko s tehnologijo rešujemo velike probleme?
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Leta 1969 je Aldrinov zgodovinski korak na luno popeljal človeštvo v obdobje tehnološkega potenciala. Z mogočno močjo tehnologije bi naj rešili vse večje probleme. Kaj se je zgodilo? So mobilne aplikacije vse, s čimer se lahko pohvalimo? Novinar Jason Pontin se poglobi v izzive, s katerimi se soočamo pri problemih, ki so zares pomembni.
Jason Pontin - Editor
Jason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review. Full bio
Jason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, we used to solve big problems.
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Torej, nekoč smo reševali velike probleme.
00:17
On July 21st, 1969,
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21. julija 1969
00:20
Buzz Aldrin climbed out of Apollo 11's lunar module
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je Buzz Aldrin splezal iz
lunarnega modula Apolla 11
lunarnega modula Apolla 11
00:24
and descended onto the Sea of Tranquility.
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in se spustil na Morje spokojnosti.
00:27
Armstrong and Aldrin were alone,
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Armstrong in Aldrin sta bila sama,
00:30
but their presence on the moon's gray surface
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ampak njuna prisotnost
na luninem sivem površju
na luninem sivem površju
00:32
was the culmination of a convulsive, collective effort.
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je bila višek zahtevnega in skupnega truda.
00:38
The Apollo program was the greatest
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Apollo program je bila najpomembnejša
00:40
peacetime mobilization
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mirna mobilizacija
00:41
in the history of the United States.
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v zgodovini Združenih držav.
00:43
To get to the moon, NASA spent
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Da bi prišla na luno, je NASA porabila
00:45
around 180 billion dollars in today's money,
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okoli 180 milijard današnjih dolarjev
00:49
or four percent of the federal budget.
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oz. štiri odstotke državnega proračuna.
00:51
Apollo employed around 400,000 people
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Apollo je zaposlil okoli 400.000 ljudi
00:54
and demanded the collaboration of 20,000
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in zahteval sodelovanje 20.000
00:57
companies, universities and government agencies.
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podjetij, univerz in državnih agencij.
01:01
People died, including the crew of Apollo 1.
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Ljudje so umirali, vključno z ekipo Apolla 1.
01:05
But before the Apollo program ended,
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Ampak preden se je Apollo program končal,
01:08
24 men flew to the moon.
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je 24 ljudi poletelo do lune.
01:11
Twelve walked on its surface, of whom Aldrin,
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12 jih je hodilo po njenem površju,
izmed katerih je Aldrin,
izmed katerih je Aldrin,
01:14
following the death of Armstrong last year,
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po Armstrongovi smrti lansko leto,
01:16
is now the most senior.
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sedaj najstarejši.
01:18
So why did they go?
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Torej, zakaj so sploh šli?
01:20
They didn't bring much back:
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Nazaj niso prinesli veliko stvari:
01:22
841 pounds of old rocks,
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381 kg starih kamnin
01:25
and something all 24 later emphasized --
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in nekaj, kar so vsi kasneje poudarjali --
01:29
a new sense of the smallness
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nov občutek majhnosti
01:32
and the fragility of our common home.
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in krhkost našega doma.
01:35
Why did they go? The cynical answer is they went
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Zakaj so šli? Posmehljiv
odgovor je, da so šli,
odgovor je, da so šli,
01:38
because President Kennedy wanted to show
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ker je predsednik Kennedy hotel pokazati
01:40
the Soviets that his nation had the better rockets.
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Sovjetom, da je njegova
država imela boljše rakete.
država imela boljše rakete.
01:44
But Kennedy's own words at Rice University in 1962
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Vendar Kennedyjev govor
na Riceovi Univerzi leta 1962
na Riceovi Univerzi leta 1962
01:49
provide a better clue.
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podaja boljši namig.
01:51
(Video) John F. Kennedy: But why, some say, the moon?
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"Zakaj luna", se marsikdo sprašuje.
01:53
Why choose this as our goal?
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Zakaj naj bo to naš cilj?
01:56
And they may well ask,
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Potemtakem se lahko vprašajo,
01:58
why climb the highest mountain?
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zakaj splezati na najvišjo goro?
02:01
Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?
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Zakaj, pred 35 leti, preleteti Atlantik?
02:05
Why does Rice play Texas?
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Zakaj Rice igra za Texas?
02:07
We choose to go to the moon.
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Odločimo se, da gremo na luno.
02:09
We choose to go to the moon.
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Odločimo se, da gremo na luno.
02:12
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
02:17
We choose to go to the moon in this decade,
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Odločimo se, da gremo
na luno v tem desetletju
na luno v tem desetletju
02:20
and do the other things,
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in da storimo druge stvari,
02:22
not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
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ne ker so lahke, ampak ker so težke.
02:26
Jason Pontin: To contemporaries,
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Za sodobnike
02:28
Apollo wasn't only a victory of West over East
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Apollo ni bil le zmaga zahoda nad vzhodom
02:31
in the Cold War.
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v Hladni vojni.
02:33
At the time, the strongest emotion
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Takrat je bilo najmočnejše čustvo
02:35
was of wonder
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začudenje
02:36
at the transcendent powers of technology.
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nad izjemnimi močmi tehnologije.
02:40
They went because it was a big thing to do.
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Šli so, ker bi bil to velik dosežek.
02:45
Landing on the moon occurred in the context
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Pristanek na luni se je zgodil v okviru
02:48
of a long series of technological triumphs.
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dolgega niza tehnoloških zmagoslavij.
02:51
The first half of the 20th century produced
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Prva polovica 20. stoletja je proizvedla
02:54
the assembly line and the airplane,
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tekoči trak in letalo,
02:56
penicillin and a vaccine for tuberculosis.
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penicilin ter cepivo proti tuberkulozi.
02:59
In the middle years of the century,
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V srednjih letih stoletja
03:00
polio was eradicated and smallpox eliminated.
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sta bili izkoreninjeni otroška
paraliza in črne koze.
paraliza in črne koze.
03:04
Technology itself seemed to possess
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Zdelo se je, da tehnologija poseduje,
03:06
what Alvin Toffler in 1970
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kar je Alvin Toffler leta 1970
03:09
called "accelerative thrust."
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imenoval pospešen sunek.
03:11
For most of human history,
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Večino človeške zgodovine
03:13
we could go no faster than a horse
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nismo mogli potovati hitreje od konja
03:16
or a boat with a sail,
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ali ladje z jadrom,
03:18
but in 1969, the crew of Apollo 10
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ampak leta 1969 je posadka Apolla 10
03:20
flew at 25,000 miles an hour.
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letela s hitrostjo 40 tisoč km/h.
03:24
Since 1970, no human beings
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Od leta 1970 se nihče
03:27
have been back to the moon.
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ni vrnil na luno.
03:29
No one has traveled faster than the crew
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Nihče ni potoval hitreje
od posadke Apolla 10.
03:31
of Apollo 10,
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03:33
and blithe optimism about technology's powers
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In velik optimizem o močeh tehnologije
03:36
has evaporated
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je izparel,
03:38
as big problems we had imagined technology would solve,
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saj so se problemi, ki smo si jih zastavili,
03:42
such as going to Mars,
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kot so odprava na Mars,
03:44
creating clean energy, curing cancer,
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čista energija, ozdravljenje raka
03:47
or feeding the world have come to seem
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ali odprava lakote, začeli zdeti
03:50
intractably hard.
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neobvladljivo težki.
03:53
I remember watching the liftoff of Apollo 17.
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Spomnim se gledanja vzleta Apolla 17.
03:57
I was five years old,
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Imel sem pet let
03:59
and my mother told me not to stare
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in mama mi je rekla, da ne smem strmeti
04:01
at the fiery exhaust of a Saturn V rocket.
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v ognjen izpuh rakete.
04:04
I vaguely knew this was to be the last
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Čeprav sem vedel, da je bila to zadnja
04:07
of the moon missions,
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lunina misija,
04:08
but I was absolutely certain there would be
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sem bil prepričan,
04:12
Mars colonies in my lifetime.
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da bodo kolonije na Marsu
še v času mojega življenja.
še v času mojega življenja.
04:15
So "Something happened
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Torej, nekaj se je zgodilo
04:18
to our capacity to solve big problems with technology"
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našim sposobnostim reševanja
04:22
has become a commonplace.
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velikih problemov s tehnologijo.
04:24
You hear it all the time.
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To slišimo ves čas.
04:26
We've heard it over the last two days here at TED.
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Tudi zadnja dva dni, tukaj pri TED-u.
04:29
It feels as if technologists have diverted us
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Zdi se kot, da so nas tehnologi zamotili
04:33
and enriched themselves with trivial toys,
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z nepomembnimi igračami,
04:36
with things like iPhones and apps and social media,
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kot so pametni telefoni in socialna omrežja
04:39
or algorithms that speed automated trading.
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ali algoritmi, ki pospešijo
avtomatsko trgovanje.
avtomatsko trgovanje.
04:43
There's nothing wrong with most of these things.
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S tem ni nič narobe.
04:45
They've expanded and enriched our lives.
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Naša življenja so razširili in obogatili.
04:48
But they don't solve humanity's big problems.
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Ampak ne rešujejo večjih človeških problemov.
04:53
What happened?
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Kaj se je zgodilo?
04:54
So there is a parochial explanation in Silicon Valley,
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Obstaja ozkogleda razlaga Silicijeve doline,
04:59
which admits that it has been funding less ambitious companies
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ki priznava, da financira
manj ambiciozna podjetja
manj ambiciozna podjetja
05:03
than it did in the years when it financed
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kot v letih, ko je financirala
05:05
Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Genentech.
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Intel, Microsoft, Apple in Genentech.
05:08
Silicon Valley says the markets are to blame,
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Trdi, da so krivi trgi,
05:11
in particular the incentives that venture capitalists
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posebej ponudbe, ki jih naložbeni kapitalisti
05:14
offer to entrepreneurs.
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ponujajo podjetnikom.
05:15
Silicon Valley says that venture investing
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Pravi, da se je tvegano vlaganje
05:17
shifted away from funding transformational ideas
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preusmerilo stran od preobrazbenih idej
05:21
and towards funding incremental problems
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in začelo nagibati k financiranju postopnih
05:24
or even fake problems.
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ali celo lažnih problemov.
05:26
But I don't think that explanation is good enough.
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Menim, da ta razlaga ni dovolj dobra.
05:29
It mostly explains what's wrong with Silicon Valley.
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Razloži le, kaj je narobe
s Silicijevo dolino.
s Silicijevo dolino.
05:33
Even when venture capitalists were at their most
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Tudi ko tvegani kapital ni bil ogrožen,
05:36
risk-happy, they preferred small investments,
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so kapitalisti raje vlagali v manjše naložbe,
05:38
tiny investments that offered an exit within 10 years.
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ki so ponujale rešitev v roku desetih let.
05:42
V.C.s have always struggled
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Pri vlaganju v tehnologije, kot je energija,
05:45
to invest profitably in technologies such as energy
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je bila ovira vedno dobiček,
05:48
whose capital requirements are huge
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saj takšen kapital zahteva veliko,
05:50
and whose development is long and lengthy,
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njegov razvoj pa je zelo dolg.
05:53
and V.C.s have never, never funded the development
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Zato kapitalisti niso nikoli
financirali razvoja tehnologij,
financirali razvoja tehnologij,
05:56
of technologies meant to solve big problems
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namenjenih reševanju velikih problemov,
05:59
that possess no immediate commercial value.
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ki nimajo takojšnega trgovskega pomena.
06:01
No, the reasons we can't solve big problems
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Dejanski razlogi so veliko
bolj zapleteni in temeljiti.
bolj zapleteni in temeljiti.
06:04
are more complicated and more profound.
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06:08
Sometimes we choose not to solve big problems.
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Včasih se za te stvari odločimo sami.
06:11
We could go to Mars if we want.
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Lahko bi šli na Mars, če bi hoteli.
06:13
NASA even has the outline of a plan.
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NASA ima celo povzetek načrta.
06:16
But going to Mars would follow a political decision
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Ampak to bi morala biti
priljubljena politična odločitev,
priljubljena politična odločitev,
06:19
with popular appeal, and that will never happen.
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kar se ne bo nikoli zgodilo.
06:23
We won't go to Mars, because everyone thinks
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Ne bomo šli na Mars, ker vsi menijo,
06:26
there are more important things
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da so pomembnejše stvari tu na Zemlji.
06:27
to do here on Earth.
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06:30
Sometimes, we can't solve big problems
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Včasih je razlog neuspeh
06:33
because our political systems fail.
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naših političnih sistemov.
06:35
Today, less than two percent
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Danes sta manj kot dva odstotka
06:37
of the world's energy consumption
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svetovne porabe energije
06:39
derives from advanced, renewable sources
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pridobljena iz naprednih, obnovljivih virov,
06:41
such as solar, wind and biofuels,
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kot so sonce, veter in biogoriva.
06:44
less than two percent,
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Manj kot dva odstotka --
06:46
and the reason is purely economic.
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razlog pa je povsem gospodarski.
06:48
Coal and natural gas are cheaper
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Premog in naravni plini so cenejši
06:50
than solar and wind,
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od sončne in vetrne energije,
06:52
and petroleum is cheaper than biofuels.
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nafta pa je cenejša od biogoriv.
06:54
We want alternative energy sources
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Hočemo alternativne vire energije,
06:57
that can compete on price. None exist.
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ki lahko tekmujejo na ceni.
-- Ne obstajajo.
-- Ne obstajajo.
07:00
Now, technologists, business leaders
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Tehnologi, podjetniki in ekonomisti
07:03
and economists all basically agree
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se strinjajo o učinku,
07:05
on what national policies and international treaties
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ki bi ga državni programi
in mednarodni sporazumi
in mednarodni sporazumi
07:09
would spur the development of alternative energy:
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imeli na razvoju alternativnih energij:
07:12
mostly, a significant increase in energy
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predvsem na visok napredek energijskih
07:15
research and development,
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raziskav in njihov razvoj
07:16
and some kind of price on carbon.
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ter na ceno ogljika.
07:19
But there's no hope in the present political climate
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Vendar, glede na trenutne
politične razmere ni upanja,
politične razmere ni upanja,
07:22
that we will see U.S. energy policy
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da bomo videli energijski program v ZDA
07:24
or international treaties that reflect that consensus.
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ali druge podobne mednarodne sporazume.
07:29
Sometimes, big problems that had seemed technological
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Včasih se "tehnološki problemi"
07:34
turn out not to be so.
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izkažejo za netehnološke.
07:36
Famines were long understood to be caused
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Včasih smo menili, da je lakota posledica
07:39
by failures in food supply.
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nezadostne zaloge hrane.
07:41
But 30 years of research have taught us
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V zadnjih 30-ih letih
pa so raziskave pokazale,
pa so raziskave pokazale,
07:43
that famines are political crises
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da je lakota odraz političnih kriz,
07:46
that catastrophically affect food distribution.
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ki katastrofalno vplivajo
na porazdelitev hrane.
na porazdelitev hrane.
07:50
Technology can improve things like crop yields
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Tehnologija lahko izboljša poljske pridelke
07:53
or systems for storing and transporting food,
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ali sisteme za shranjevanje
in transport hrane,
in transport hrane,
07:57
but there will be famines so long as there are bad governments.
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ampak dokler so slabe vlade,
bo lakota obstajala.
bo lakota obstajala.
08:02
Finally, big problems sometimes elude solution
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Končno, veliki problemi
se včasih izmaknejo rešitvi,
se včasih izmaknejo rešitvi,
08:06
because we don't really understand the problem.
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ker jih ne razumemo dovolj dobro.
08:09
President Nixon declared war on cancer in 1971,
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Predsednik Nixon je leta 1971
napovedal vojno proti raku.
napovedal vojno proti raku.
08:14
but we soon discovered
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Kmalu pa smo ugotovili,
08:15
there are many kinds of cancer,
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da obstaja več vrst raka,
08:18
most of them fiendishly resistant to therapy,
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večina odpornih na terapijo.
08:22
and it is only in the last 10 years
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Le v zadnjih desetih letih
08:24
that effective, viable therapies
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so začele nastajati
08:26
have come to seem real.
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učinkovite in izvedljive terapije.
08:28
Hard problems are hard.
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Težki problemi so težki.
08:31
It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology.
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Ni res, da jih ne moremo
reševati s tehnologijo.
reševati s tehnologijo.
08:36
We can, we must, but these four elements
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Lahko in moramo jih, vendar morajo
08:40
must all be present:
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biti prisotni vsi štirje elementi:
08:41
Political leaders and the public
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politični voditelji in javnost
08:43
must care to solve a problem;
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si morajo želeti rešitve,
08:45
institutions must support its solution;
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ustanove morajo to rešitev podpirati,
08:48
It must really be a technological problem;
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res mora biti tehnološki problem
08:51
and we must understand it.
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in moramo ga razumeti.
08:55
The Apollo mission,
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Misija Apollo,
08:57
which has become a kind of metaphor
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ki je postala nekakšna metafora
08:59
for technology's capacity to solve big problems,
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za tehnološko sposobnost,
09:03
met these criteria.
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je zajemala ta merila.
09:05
But it is an irreproducible model for the future.
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Ampak to je neponovljiv model za prihodnost.
09:08
It is not 1961.
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Ni leto 1961.
09:10
There is no galvanizing contest like the Cold War,
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Ni tekmovanja, kot je Hladna vojna,
09:14
no politician like John Kennedy
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ni politika, kot je John Kennedy,
09:16
who can heroize the difficult and the dangerous,
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ki lahko uresniči težke in nevarne stvari
09:20
and no popular science fictional mythology
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in ni priljubljene znanstvene mitologije,
09:23
such as exploring the solar system.
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kot je raziskovanje sončnega sistema.
09:26
Most of all, going to the moon
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Odprava na luno se je izkazala za lahko.
09:28
turned out to be easy.
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09:30
It was just three days away.
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Oddaljena je bila le tri dni
09:32
And arguably it wasn't even solving
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in naj niti ne bi predstavljala
09:35
much of a problem.
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velikega problema.
09:38
We are left alone with our day,
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Zapuščeni smo samemu sebi
09:42
and the solutions of the future will be harder won.
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in rešitve bodo v prihodnosti
težje pridobljene.
težje pridobljene.
09:47
God knows, we don't lack for the challenges.
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Izzivov pa nam zagotovo ne primanjkuje.
09:50
Thank you very much.
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Hvala lepa.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jason Pontin - EditorJason Pontin is the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review.
Why you should listen
As the editor-in-chief and publisher of MIT Technology Review, Jason Pontin looks into the future, and thinks deeply about what technologies are going to get us there. Pontin has been editor-in-chief of the magazine since 2004 and publisher since 2005, at which point he began its transition to a digital-first magazine. Pontin reduced the number of annual print issues from eleven to six while refocusing the publication's energy toward original daily content. From 1996 to 2002, Pontin was the editor of the now-defunct Red Herring magazine.
Jason Pontin | Speaker | TED.com