TEDxUMKC
William Black: How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is)
威廉姆·布莱克: 银行是如何被掏空的？
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威廉姆布莱曾任职银行业的监管人员。他从亲身经历中看到了银行系统是如何行骗的；看到了诈骗性贷款和其他狡猾的伎俩是如何导致了2008年的银行业危机，从而威胁到了全球的经济。布莱克的这场引人入胜的演讲从学术角度揭示了从内部掏空一个银行的“最佳方案“。
William Black - Academic
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City. Full bio
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
今天的“顶级大厨”寓教于食，揭秘怎么抢银行，
00:12
So today's top chef class is in how to rob a bank,
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00:16
and it's clear that the general public needs guidance,
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显然，大众对这个外行。
00:20
because the average bank robbery nets
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因为一般的劫匪抢一次银行，
00:23
only 7,500 dollars.
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平均只能抢到区区7500刀，
00:26
Rank amateurs who know nothing
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这是完全不懂做假帐的
00:28
about how to cook the books.
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业余会计的水平。
00:30
The folks who know, of course,
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当然，懂行的专业人士
00:32
run our largest banks,
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全是大银行的头头们，
00:34
and in the last go-around,
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上次他们出手，
00:36
they cost us over 11 trillion dollars.
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我们损失11万亿刀。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks like.
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11万亿看起来是酱紫的。
00:43
That's how many zeros?
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数数多少个0？
00:45
And cost us over 10 million jobs as well.
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还让我们损失1000万个工作岗位。
00:48
So our task is to educate ourselves
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所以我们的当务之急是
00:51
so that we can understand
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好好学习，长长见识，搞清楚
00:52
why we have these recurrent,
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金融危机一再出现
00:54
intensifying financial crises,
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并且愈演愈烈的原因，
00:56
and how we can prevent them in the future.
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以及未来如何防范。
01:00
And the answer to that is
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答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics of control fraud.
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我们需要制止大面积的管理欺诈行为。
01:06
Control fraud is what happens
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何为管理欺诈？
01:08
when the people who control,
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管理人员，
01:10
typically a CEO,
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通常是CEO
01:12
a seemingly legitimate entity,
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在管理一个貌似合法的金融机构时，
01:14
use it as a weapon to defraud.
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把这个机构当成武器来使，搞诈骗。
01:17
And these are the weapons of mass destruction
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这些算是金融界的
01:20
in the financial world.
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大规模杀伤性武器。
01:22
They also follow in finance a particular strategy,
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在金融领域，他们还采取一种特定的策略，
01:27
because the weapon of choice in finance
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因为他们所使用的武器是会计（accounting），
01:30
is accounting,
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这是金融领域的不二之选。
01:31
and there is a recipe for accounting
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会计管理欺诈行为及其发生
01:35
control fraud, and how it occurs.
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都有固定的“套路”。
01:37
And we discovered this recipe
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我们发现这一点
01:39
in quite an odd way that I'll
come back to in a moment.
come back to in a moment.
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也是不期而然。我稍后再谈。
01:42
First ingredient in the recipe: grow like crazy;
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这一套路不可缺少的“原料”：首先是疯狂地膨胀扩张。
01:46
second, by making or buying really crappy loans,
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其次是放出或者购买“垃圾贷款”，
01:51
but loans that are made at a very high interest rate
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不过这种贷款的利率或者收益
01:54
or yield;
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非常之高。
01:56
three, while employing extreme leverage --
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第三，大肆利用金融杠杆，
01:58
that just means a lot of debt --
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也就是相对于资产而言不成比例
01:59
compared to your equity;
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的大量债务。
02:01
and four, while providing only trivial loss reserves
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第四，为应对必然发生的坏账
02:05
against the inevitable losses.
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提供少之又少的准备金。
02:07
If you follow those four simple steps,
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只要遵循这四个简单的步骤，
02:11
and any bank can follow them,
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任何银行都做得到，
02:13
then you are mathematically guaranteed
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就会确定无疑地出现以下
02:15
to have three things occur.
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三种情况。
02:18
The first thing is
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第一，银行的账面利润
02:19
you will report record bank profits --
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将会是史无前例的高
02:23
not just high, record.
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不是一般的高，是史无前例的高。
02:25
Two, the CEO will immediately
be made incredibly wealthy
be made incredibly wealthy
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第二，鉴于现代的高管薪酬结构，
02:30
by modern executive compensation.
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CEO会一夜暴富。
02:33
And three, farther down the road,
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第三，长此以往
02:36
the bank will suffer catastrophic losses
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银行就会遭受巨额损失，
02:39
and will fail unless it is bailed out.
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除非获得救助，不然就将倒闭。
02:42
And that's a hint as to how
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因为我们对整个流程进行了“解剖”。
02:46
we discovered this recipe,
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顺藤摸瓜，
02:48
because we discovered it
through an autopsy process.
through an autopsy process.
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我们才发现了这个固定的套路。
02:52
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,
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1984年储贷危机期间，
02:57
we looked at every single failure,
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我们仔细研究了每一个破产案例。
02:59
and we looked for common characteristics,
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寻找其中的共同点，
03:02
and we discovered this recipe was common
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我们发现这一套路在每个欺诈案例中
03:06
to each of these frauds.
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都存在。
03:08
In other words, a coroner could find these things
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换言之，“验尸官”能够找到这些东西。
03:11
because this is a fatal recipe
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因为这是致命的“毒方”，
03:14
that will destroy the banks
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不仅会毁掉银行，
03:16
as well as the economy.
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也会毁掉我们的经济。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely
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这也正是可以阻止
03:21
what could have stopped this crisis,
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这场危机发生的东西，
03:23
the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars
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这一危机仅在经济的私人部门就让我们
03:26
just in the household sector,
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损失11万亿，
03:28
that cost us 10 million jobs,
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丢掉1000万个工作岗位，
03:30
was the easiest financial crisis by far
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如果我们能够运用这一固定套路
03:33
to have avoided completely
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从大面积的管理欺诈行为中吸取教训，
03:36
if we had simply learned the lessons
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我们就可以
03:38
of epidemics of control fraud,
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轻而易举地
避免这场危机的发生。
03:40
particularly using this recipe.
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03:43
So let's go to this crisis,
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现在我们来看看这场危机
03:45
and the two huge epidemics
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以及导致它发生的
03:47
of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis --
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两种大面积借贷欺诈行为：
03:51
appraisal fraud and liar's loans --
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估价欺诈和欺骗性贷款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
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研究这两者，
03:55
in looking at both of these is
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我们发现：
03:58
we got warnings that were incredibly early
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第一，对于这些欺诈行为，我们接到的预警信号
04:01
about these frauds.
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非常之早。
04:03
We got warnings that we could
have taken advantage of easily,
have taken advantage of easily,
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第二，我们可以轻而易举地利用这些预警信号采取措施，
04:07
because back in the savings and loan debacle,
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因为早在储贷危机时期，
04:09
we had figured out how to respond
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我们就知道了如何应对，
04:12
and prevent these crises.
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从而避免危机的发生。
04:14
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
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第三，这些预警信号确切不疑。
04:17
They were obvious that what was going on
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它们清楚地表明了
04:20
was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
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大面积的会计管理欺诈行为正在升级。
04:25
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
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我们先来看估价欺诈
04:27
This is simply where you inflate the value
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简单地说，估价欺诈就是
04:29
of the home that is being pledged
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夸大用作贷款担保的
04:32
as security for the loan.
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房屋的价值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
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在2000年，
04:38
that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,
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也就是安然破产一年多前，
04:43
the honest appraisers got together a formal petition
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有节操的估价师聚在一起，起草了一份正式的请愿书。
04:47
begging the federal government to act,
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要求联邦政府采取措施，
04:50
and the industry to act,
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要求行业自身采取措施，
04:52
to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
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制止这种大面积的估价欺诈行为。
04:56
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,
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这些估价师解释问题是如何发生的：
04:59
that banks were demanding that appraisers
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银行要求估价师弄虚作假
05:03
inflate the appraisal,
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夸大估值，
05:04
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,
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一旦估价师拒绝配合，
05:08
they, the banks, would blacklist
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银行就把这些有节操的估价师
05:12
honest appraisers
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拉入黑名单，
05:14
and refuse to use them.
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不再雇佣他们。
05:16
Now, we've seen this before
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在储贷危机期间，
05:19
in the savings and loan debacle,
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我们就遇到过这种情况，
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud
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我们知道这种欺诈行为的
05:22
can only originate from the lenders,
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罪魁祸首就是借方，
05:25
and that no honest lender would ever inflate
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有节操的借方绝对不会
05:28
the appraisal,
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为估值灌水，
05:29
because it's the great protection against loss.
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因为拒绝灌水才是防止损失的上策。
05:32
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
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所以说，预警信号早在2000年就已出现。
05:36
It was something we'd seen before,
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这是我们之前见到过，
05:38
and it was completely unambiguous.
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并且确切不疑。
05:40
This was an epidemic of accounting control fraud
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这就是银行主导的
05:44
led by the banks.
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大面积会计管理欺诈行为。
05:45
What about liar's loans?
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欺骗性贷款又是神马呢？
05:47
Well, that warning actually comes earlier.
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实际上，它的预警信号来得更早。
05:51
The savings and loan debacle is basically
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储贷危机基本上从1980年代早期开始
05:54
the early 1980s through 1993,
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持续到1993年，
05:57
and in the midst of fighting that wave
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在打击那波会计管理欺诈
06:00
of accounting control fraud,
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的行动中，我们在1990年
06:02
in 1990, we found that a second front
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发现欺诈行为出现了
06:07
of fraud was being started.
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第二波。
06:09
And like all good financial frauds in America,
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果不其然，和美国的所有牛逼的金融欺诈行为一样，
06:11
it began in Orange County, California.
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发源地又是加州橙县。
06:15
And we happened to be the regional regulators for it.
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我们刚好是当地的监管机构。
06:18
And our examiners said,
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我们的检查人员说，
06:20
they are making loans without even checking
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当地银行根本不核实借款人的收入情况
06:23
what the borrower's income is.
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直接就发放借款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive losses,
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这太没底线了，必然会导致大规模损失，
06:30
and it only makes sense for entities engaged
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这种情况只可能是金融机构进行了
06:34
in these accounting control frauds.
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会计管理欺诈行为。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely right,
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我们对检查人员说，没错，你们说的对，
06:38
and we drove those liar's loans
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然后就在90、91年，我们在银行业取缔了
06:41
out of the industry in 1990 and 1991,
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这些欺诈性的贷款。
06:46
but we could only deal with the industry
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但是，我们只能处理我们有权
06:48
we had jurisdiction over,
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管理的业务，
06:50
which was savings and loans,
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也就是储蓄和贷款业务。
06:52
and so the biggest and the baddest of the frauds,
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业内最大最狡猾的诈骗银行
06:55
Long Beach Savings, voluntarily gave up
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“长滩储蓄”主动放弃
06:58
its federal savings and loan charter,
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联邦政府颁发的储蓄和借贷执照，
07:01
gave up federal deposit insurance,
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放弃联邦存款保险，
07:03
converted to become a mortgage bank
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变身一家抵押银行，
07:06
for the sole purpose of escaping our jurisdiction,
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煞费苦心，只为了逃避我们的监管，
07:09
and changed its name to Ameriquest,
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“长滩储蓄”后来更名为Ameriquest，
07:11
and became the most notorious
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是早期欺骗性借贷欺诈行为中
07:13
of the liar's loans frauds early on,
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最为臭名昭著的。
07:17
and to add to that,
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此外，
07:18
they deliberately predated upon minorities.
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他们还故意欺骗美国的少数族裔。
07:23
So we knew again about this crisis.
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所以这样的诈骗性贷款危机也是我们所了解的，
07:27
We'd seen it before. We'd stopped it before.
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我们之前见过，我们之前也阻止过。
07:31
We had incredibly early warnings of it,
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我们接到的预警信号非常之早，
07:34
and it was absolutely unambiguous
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预警信号确切不疑：
07:36
that no honest lender would
make loans in this fashion.
make loans in this fashion.
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有节操的借方绝不会这样放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction
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我们来看看面对这些完全可以
07:43
of the industry and the regulators
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阻止危机发生的清晰预警信号，
07:46
and the prosecutors to these clear
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从行业自身、监管机构到
07:48
early warnings that could have prevented the crisis.
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检调人员都做了些什么。
07:53
Start with the industry.
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先看行业本身。
07:55
The industry responded between 2003 and 2006
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从2003年到2006年，金融行业
08:01
by increasing liar's loans
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的欺骗性借贷业务增加了
08:04
by over 500 percent.
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5倍之多。
08:09
These were the loans
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正是这些贷款
08:11
that hyperinflated the bubble
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使泡沫飞速膨大，
08:12
and produced the economic crisis.
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造成了经济危机。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans called subprime
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截至2006年，半数被称为次贷的借款，
08:21
were also liar's loans.
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同时也是欺骗性借贷。
08:23
They're not mutually exclusive, it's just that together,
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这两者并不互斥，而是交织在一起
08:26
they're the most toxic combination
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共同构成你所能想象出的
08:29
you can possibly imagine.
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最坏组合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans
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截至2006年，当年发放的所有贷款，
08:34
made that year, all the home loans made that year,
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当年的所有房屋贷款中，
08:37
were liar's loans,
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四成是欺骗性贷款。
08:40
40 percent.
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高达四成啊，亲。
08:41
And this is despite a warning
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行业自身的反欺诈专家
08:44
from the industry's own antifraud experts
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曾经警告，
08:47
that said that these loans were an open invitation
182
515624
3155
这些贷款简直是引狼入室，
08:50
to fraudsters,
183
518779
1960
诈骗率高达九成，百分之九十。
08:52
and that they had a fraud incidence
184
520739
1742
尽管有这些警告，
08:54
of 90 percent,
185
522481
2488
问题
08:56
nine zero.
186
524969
2692
还是发生了。
08:59
In response to that, the industry
187
527661
3067
作为回应，金融行业
09:02
first started calling these loans liar's loans,
188
530728
5048
首先开始称呼这些贷款为欺骗性借贷，
09:07
which lacks a certain subtlety,
189
535776
3569
听上去不太悦耳。
09:11
and second, massively increased them,
190
539345
3050
其次，大幅增加这种贷款。
09:14
and no government regulator ever
191
542395
3261
没有任何政府监管机构
09:17
required or encouraged any lender
192
545656
3690
要求或者鼓励任何借方
09:21
to make a liar's loan
193
549346
1296
放出欺骗性贷款
09:22
or anyone to purchase a liar's loan,
194
550642
2687
要求或鼓励任何人去购买欺骗性借贷，
09:25
and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.
195
553329
3170
这当然也包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came from the lenders
196
556499
2122
由于欺诈的成因和模式，
09:30
because of the fraud recipe.
197
558621
3169
借方难辞其咎。
09:33
What happened to appraisal fraud?
198
561790
2434
估价欺诈行为又是怎样呢？
09:36
It expanded remarkably as well.
199
564224
3136
同样膨胀得非常了得。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,
200
567360
4397
2007年，有份针对估价师的调查，
09:43
90 percent of appraisers reported
201
571757
2701
9成受访的估价师表示，
09:46
that they had been subject to coercion
202
574458
2440
他们受到借方的胁迫，
09:48
from the lenders trying to get them
203
576898
2492
要求他们对估值进行
09:51
to inflate an appraisal.
204
579390
1570
灌水（夸大价值）。
09:52
In other words, both forms of fraud
205
580960
2990
换言之，两种形式的欺诈行为
09:55
became absolutely endemic and normal,
206
583950
3774
成为常态，疯狂肆虐，
09:59
and this is what drove the bubble.
207
587724
2229
泡沫于是成型。
10:01
What happened in the governmental sector?
208
589953
2192
政府部门的情况呢？
10:04
Well, the government, as I told you,
209
592145
2604
政府啊，不提也罢，说多了都是泪，
10:06
when we were the savings and loan regulators,
210
594749
2716
我们监管储贷的时候，
10:09
we could only deal with our industry,
211
597465
2678
我们只能处理我们负责的行业，
10:12
and if people gave up their
federal deposit insurance,
federal deposit insurance,
212
600143
2438
如果借方放弃他们的联邦存款保险，
10:14
we couldn't do anything to them.
213
602581
2263
我们就将束手无策。
10:16
Congress, it may strike you as impossible,
214
604844
3329
国会，说起来你们可能不信，
10:20
but actually did something intelligent in 1994,
215
608173
3248
在1994年实际上倒是干了点实事，
10:23
and passed the Home Ownership
and Equity Protection Act
and Equity Protection Act
216
611421
3553
通过了《房屋所有权和股权保护法》，
10:26
that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,
217
614974
3253
法案赋权美联储，仅限美联储
10:30
the explicit, statutory authority to ban liar's loans
218
618227
4027
明确的法律权力去取缔来自任何借方的
10:34
by every lender,
219
622254
2106
欺骗性贷款业务，
10:36
whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.
220
624360
2998
无论这些借方有无联邦存款保险。
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,
221
627358
3535
在接到这些预警信号：
10:42
as chairs of the Fed, do
222
630893
1967
这些大面积的欺诈性贷款
10:44
when they got these warnings
223
632860
1906
这些要转售给次级市场的欺骗性贷款
10:46
that these were massively fraudulent loans
224
634766
3010
作为美联储主席
10:49
and that they were being sold
to the secondary market?
to the secondary market?
225
637776
3354
到底做了些什么？
10:53
Remember, there's no fraud exorcist.
226
641130
2220
请记住，没有神人能将这些欺诈行为消失。
10:55
Once it starts out a fraudulent loan,
227
643350
2048
欺骗性贷款一旦出现，
10:57
it can only be sold to the secondary market
228
645398
2312
只能通过更多的欺诈行为，
10:59
through more frauds,
229
647710
1196
如编造合约声明和保证条款
11:00
lying about the reps and warrantees,
230
648906
2548
把这一借款转售给次级市场。
11:03
and then those people are going to produce
231
651454
1608
然后借方再推出
11:05
mortgage-backed securities
232
653062
1428
抵押贷款证券和
11:06
and exotic derivatives
233
654490
1268
衍生产品，
11:07
which are also going to be supposedly backed
234
655758
3222
而为这些产品进行担保的正是
11:10
by those fraudulent loans.
235
658980
1723
欺骗性借款。
11:12
So the fraud is going to progress
236
660703
1541
欺诈行为将贯穿
11:14
through the entire system,
237
662244
1464
整个系统的始终，
11:15
hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.
238
663708
3253
使泡沫急剧膨胀，进而造成灾难。
11:18
And remember, we had experience with this.
239
666961
3301
想想看，这事我们之前经历过。
11:22
We had seen significant losses,
240
670262
2288
我们遭受了巨大的损失，
11:24
and we had experience of competent regulators
241
672550
3446
职能监管机构也有阻止危机出现的
11:27
in stopping it.
242
675996
1490
先例。
11:29
Greenspan and Bernanke refused
243
677486
2896
但是格林斯潘和伯南克拒绝
11:32
to use the authority under the statute
244
680382
2411
使用法律赋予他们的权力来取缔
11:34
to stop liar's loans.
245
682793
2317
欺骗性借贷。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma.
246
685110
2564
首先，这完全是意识形态在作祟。
11:39
They're just horrifically opposed
247
687674
2851
他们反对任何形式的监管措施，
11:42
to anything regulatory.
248
690525
1819
令人震惊和深恶痛绝。
11:44
But it is also the international competition in laxity,
249
692344
4716
但同时也是国际上放松监管的竞争，
11:49
the race to the bottom
250
697060
1284
力争下游。
11:50
between the United States and the United Kingdom,
251
698344
4035
这场竞争在美国和英国，确切说是
11:54
the city of London, in particular,
252
702379
1601
伦敦之间展开，
11:55
and the city of London won that race to the bottom,
253
703980
2970
伦敦获胜，监管最松。
11:58
but it meant that all regulation in the West
254
706950
3852
这也意味着，
12:02
was completely degraded
255
710802
2004
从这场看谁的监控最松的愚蠢竞争中
12:04
in this stupid competition to be
256
712806
2084
可以看出在西方社会，
12:06
who could have the weakest regulation.
257
714890
2072
监管措施是多么的不受待见。
12:08
So that was the regulatory response.
258
716962
2050
这就是监管层面的反应。
12:11
What about the response of the prosecutors
259
719012
3657
这场让我们损失11万亿
12:14
after the crisis,
260
722669
1735
1000万个工作岗位，
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars in losses,
261
724404
4198
损失和欺诈规模
12:20
after 10 million jobs lost,
262
728602
2040
超过储贷危机
12:22
a crisis in which the losses and the frauds
263
730642
3284
70倍的危机之后，
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
733926
3455
检调人员
12:29
than the savings and loan debacle?
265
737381
2304
又做了些什么呢？
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan debacle,
266
739685
1891
在储贷危机中，
12:33
our agency that regulated savings and loans, OTS,
267
741576
3970
负责储贷监管的机构-储蓄管理局
12:37
made over 30,000 criminal referrals,
268
745546
4084
提出3万起刑事诉讼，
12:41
produced over 1,000 felony convictions
269
749630
2636
1千人被判以重罪，
12:44
just in cases designated as major,
270
752266
2674
这还仅是大案要案方面，
12:46
and that understates the degree of prioritization,
271
754940
3138
而且还没反映问题的严重性，
12:50
because we worked with the FBI
272
758078
1796
因为我们跟联邦调查局携手，
12:51
to create the list of the top 100 fraud schemes,
273
759874
4264
开列了一个清单，上面是全国范围内
12:56
the absolute worst of the worst, nationwide.
274
764138
3264
最没节操最无底线的100种诈骗伎俩。
12:59
Roughly 300 savings and loans involved,
275
767402
2784
差不多300个储贷机构，
13:02
roughly 600 senior officials.
276
770186
3314
600个高级官员涉案。
13:05
Virtually all of them were prosecuted.
277
773500
2340
几乎全被起诉，
13:07
We had a 90 percent conviction rate.
278
775840
2831
定罪率9成。
13:10
It's the greatest success against
279
778671
1830
堪称针对白领精英犯罪的
13:12
elite white collar criminals ever,
280
780501
2602
一场漂亮仗，史无前例，
13:15
and it was because of this understanding
281
783103
2236
原因无他，我们掌握了管理欺诈及
13:17
of control fraud
282
785339
1335
会计管理欺诈的内幕
13:18
and the accounting control fraud mechanism.
283
786674
2511
和伎俩。
13:21
Flash forward to the current crisis.
284
789185
3172
再回到当前的这场危机。
13:24
The same agency, Office of Thrift Supervision,
285
792357
2573
同一个机构-储蓄管理局，
13:26
which was supposed to regulate
286
794930
1630
本应该监管全国
13:28
many of the largest makers of liar's loans
287
796560
2097
欺骗性贷款祸首的各大银行。
13:30
in the country,
288
798657
1107
到今天，什么都没做，
13:31
has made, even today -- it no longer exists,
289
799764
4694
好像一切不曾发生过，
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
804458
1808
一年前，提出的
13:38
it had made zero criminal referrals.
291
806266
4844
刑事诉讼案件数还是零。
13:43
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,
292
811110
1696
负责全国性大银行
13:44
which is supposed to regulate
the largest national banks,
the largest national banks,
293
812806
2516
监管任务的金融管理局，
13:47
has made zero criminal referrals.
294
815322
2551
提出的刑事诉讼案件数同样为零。
13:49
The Fed appears to have made
295
817873
1626
美联储提出的刑事诉讼案件貌似
13:51
zero criminal referrals.
296
819499
1995
也是零。
13:53
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
297
821494
1955
联邦存款保险公司更刁钻，顾左右而言他，
13:55
is smart enough to refuse to answer the question.
298
823449
4534
根本不回答这个问题。
13:59
Without any guidance from the regulators,
299
827983
5535
没有监管机构的协助，
14:05
there's no expertise in the FBI
300
833518
2882
联邦调查局在调查复杂的欺诈案件上
14:08
to investigate complex frauds.
301
836400
2472
无能为力。
14:10
It isn't simply that they've had
302
838872
1932
提出诉讼不是什么难事，
14:12
to reinvent the wheel
303
840804
1822
不过是举手之劳，易如反掌。
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions;
304
842626
1918
只是他们忘了怎么举，
14:16
they've forgotten that the wheel exists,
305
844544
4756
忘了怎么反。
14:21
and therefore, we have zero prosecutions,
306
849300
4098
因而，
14:25
and of course, zero convictions,
307
853398
2602
造成这场危机的
14:28
of any of the elite bank frauds,
308
856000
2790
华尔街顶尖银行诈骗犯们
14:30
the Wall Street types,
309
858790
1537
没有一个被起诉
14:32
that drove this crisis.
310
860327
3132
没有一个被定罪。
14:35
With no expertise coming from the regulators,
311
863459
2237
监管机构不愿伸出援手，
14:37
the FBI formed what it calls a partnership
312
865696
3091
联邦调查局2007年与抵押贷款银行家协会
14:40
with the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2007.
313
868787
4323
携起手来。
14:45
The Mortgage Bankers Association
314
873110
1833
抵押贷款银行家协会
14:46
is the trade association of the perps.
315
874943
3751
是这些祸首的行业组织。
14:50
And the Mortgage Bankers Association
316
878694
2416
抵押贷款银行家协会
14:53
set out, it had the audacity and the success
317
881110
3790
出手了，他们不仅有能力也有动机
14:56
to con the FBI.
318
884900
1678
去欺骗联邦调查局。
14:58
It had created a supposed definition
319
886578
3077
抵押贷款银行家协会为抵押欺诈行为
15:01
of mortgage fraud, in which, guess what,
320
889655
2875
下了个定义，不出所料，按照这个定义，
15:04
its members are always the victim
321
892530
1862
这个协会的成员都是欺诈行为的受害者，
15:06
and never the perpetrators.
322
894392
2017
没一个是欺诈行为的加害者。
15:08
And the FBI has bought this hook, line, sinker,
323
896409
4514
联邦调查局不疑有他
15:12
rod, reel and the boat they rode out in.
324
900923
4081
照单全收。
15:17
And so the FBI,
325
905004
3056
就这样，
15:20
under the leadership of an attorney general
326
908060
3098
在一个非裔司法部长
15:23
who is African-American
327
911158
1174
和一个非裔美国总统的
15:24
and a president of the United
States who is African-American,
States who is African-American,
328
912332
2462
领导之下，联邦调查局完全相信了
15:26
have adopted the Tea Party definition of the crisis,
329
914794
3500
茶党对这场危机的说辞，
15:30
in which it is the first virgin crisis in history,
330
918294
3482
成了破天荒的“圣女生子案”，
15:33
conceived without sin in the executive ranks.
331
921776
3678
高管层人人清白。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever hairdressers
332
925454
3396
问题出在狡猾的临时工身上，
15:40
who were able to defraud the poor, pitiful banks,
333
928850
3218
他们在欺骗穷人，他们在欺骗对金融行业一无所知
15:44
who lack any financial sophistication.
334
932068
2384
的银行业者。
15:46
It is the silliest story you can conceive of,
335
934452
3358
这简直是最奇葩的谎话，
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute the hairdressers,
336
937810
3901
然后他们把临时工抓起来了，
15:53
and they leave the banksters alone entirely.
337
941711
4179
银行家们毫发未损。
15:57
And so, while lions are roaming the campsite,
338
945890
2910
就这样，满地西瓜
16:00
the FBI is chasing mice.
339
948800
3210
联邦调查局却在那里捡芝麻。
16:04
What do we need to do?
340
952010
1430
我们该怎么办？
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
341
953440
2504
面对这一切，我们能做什么？
16:07
We need to change the perverse incentive structures
342
955944
3819
我们需要改革不正常的激励机制，
16:11
that produce these recurrent epidemics
343
959763
2996
正是这种机制在催生一再出现的大面积
16:14
of accounting control fraud
344
962759
1329
会计管理欺诈行为，
16:16
that are driving our crises.
345
964088
2014
进而导致危机的发生。
16:18
So we have to first get rid
346
966102
2888
第一，我们要排除这种具有
16:20
of the systemically dangerous institutions.
347
968990
2488
系统性危险的金融机构。
16:23
These are the so-called too-big-to-fail institutions.
348
971478
3485
所谓“尾大不掉”的金融机构。
16:26
We need to shrink them to the point,
349
974963
2142
在接下来的五年里，
16:29
within the next five years,
350
977105
1595
我们要给它们大幅瘦身，
16:30
that they no longer pose a systemic risk.
351
978700
2735
让它们不再具有系统性风险。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking time bombs
352
981435
2137
现在，它们就是定时炸弹，
16:35
that will cause a global crisis
353
983572
3343
其中一个破产倒闭，
16:38
as soon as the next one fails --
354
986915
2349
就会引发全球性危机。
16:41
not if, when.
355
989264
1796
而且问题还不是会不会倒，而是什么时候倒的问题。
16:43
Second thing we need to do is completely reform
356
991060
2911
第二，我们要彻底改革
16:45
modern executive and professional compensation,
357
993971
2992
当前的高管人员薪酬制度，
16:48
which is what they use to suborn the appraisers.
358
996963
4343
这也是他们用来胁迫估价师的工具和手段。
16:53
Remember, they were pressuring the appraisers
359
1001306
1888
想想看，他们在通过薪酬体系
16:55
through the compensation system,
360
1003194
1782
向估价师施压，
16:56
trying to produce what we call a Gresham's dynamic,
361
1004976
2662
造成“劣币驱逐良币”的
16:59
in which bad ethics drives good ethics
362
1007638
2579
格雷欣效应，
17:02
out of the marketplace.
363
1010217
1366
市场上道德节操无人问津。
17:03
And they largely succeeded,
364
1011583
1936
很大程度上，他们得逞了。
17:05
which is how the fraud became endemic.
365
1013519
2883
这就是为什么欺诈行为如此猖獗。
17:08
And the third thing that we need to do
366
1016402
2698
第三，我们要解决三“无”问题：
17:11
is deal with what we call the three D's:
367
1019100
2638
无规章制度、无有效监管
17:13
deregulation, desupervision,
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出事后，无人担责被绳之以法
17:16
and the de facto decriminalization.
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的问题。
17:20
Because we can make
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因为我们可以
17:22
all three of these changes, and if we do so,
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从这三方面进行改革，只要我们这样做，
17:26
we can dramatically reduce
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就能大幅降低危机
17:28
how often we have a crisis
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发生的频率和危机发生后的
17:31
and how severe those crises are.
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危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply critical to our economy.
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这不仅事关我们的经济。
17:37
You can see what these crises do to inequality
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看看这些危机对贫富差距的影响，
17:41
and what they do to our democracy.
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对我们的民主制度的破坏。
17:43
They have produced crony capitalism,
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危机产生了裙带资本主义，
17:46
American-style,
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有美国特色的裙带资本主义，
17:47
in which the largest financial institutions
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最大的金融机构是
17:50
are the leading financial donors of both parties,
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两党的最大金主。
17:54
and that's the reason why
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这就是为什么
17:56
even after this crisis,
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这场比储贷危机严重
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan crisis,
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70倍的危机发生之后，
18:05
we have no meaningful reforms
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在我提到的三个方面依然没有
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
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任何实质性的改革。
18:11
other than banning liar's loans,
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除了欺骗性贷款被取缔，
18:13
which is good,
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这当然是好事
18:14
but that's just one form of ammunition
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但欺骗性贷款只是他们手中的
18:17
for this fraud weapon.
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一种武器。
18:18
There are many forms of ammunition they can use.
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他们可用的武器还很多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn
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这就是为什么我们需要
18:24
what the bankers have learned:
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求教银行家的地方：
18:26
the recipe for the best way to rob a bank,
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抢银行的最佳“秘方”，
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe,
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这样我们才能除掉它。
18:32
because our legislators,
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因为我们的国会议员
18:34
who are dependent on political contributions,
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离不开政治献金，
18:37
will not do it on their own.
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所以他们不会主动来做这一切。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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谢谢，多谢。
18:41
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
William Black - AcademicWilliam Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City.
Why you should listen
William Black is an associate professor of economics and law. He was the executive director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. He previously taught at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and at Santa Clara University, where he was also the distinguished scholar in residence for insurance law and a visiting scholar at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. Black was litigation director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, deputy director of the FSLIC, SVP and general counsel of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and senior deputy chief counsel, Office of Thrift Supervision. He was deputy director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement.
His 2005 book The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One has been called “a classic.” Professor Black recently helped the World Bank develop anti-corruption initiatives and served as an expert for OFHEO in its enforcement action against Fannie Mae’s former senior management.
He teaches white-collar crime, public finance, antitrust, law and economics, and Latin American development.
William Black | Speaker | TED.com