ABOUT THE SPEAKER
William Black - Academic
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City.

Why you should listen

William Black is an associate professor of economics and law. He was the executive director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. He previously taught at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and at Santa Clara University, where he was also the distinguished scholar in residence for insurance law and a visiting scholar at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. Black was litigation director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, deputy director of the FSLIC, SVP and general counsel of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and senior deputy chief counsel, Office of Thrift Supervision. He was deputy director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement.

His 2005 book The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One has been called “a classic.” Professor Black recently helped the World Bank develop anti-corruption initiatives and served as an expert for OFHEO in its enforcement action against Fannie Mae’s former senior management.

He teaches white-collar crime, public finance, antitrust, law and economics, and Latin American development.

More profile about the speaker
William Black | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxUMKC

William Black: How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is)

威廉‧布雷克: 如何搶銀行?(從銀行內部下手,別懷疑)

Filmed:
1,594,124 views

威廉‧布雷克曾經是銀行的監管人員,從他的親身經歴中,看到人們是如何利用銀行體系進行詐欺,看到詐欺性貸款和其他狡滑手法,是如何導致 2008 年美國銀行業的危機,因此威脅全球的經濟。在這場精彩的演講中,目前從事於學術工作的布雷克揭發搶銀行的最佳方式:從內部下手。
- Academic
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So today's今天的 top最佳 chef廚師 class is in how to rob a bank銀行,
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今天的頂尖主廚要教大家
如何搶銀行,
00:16
and it's clear明確 that the general一般 public上市 needs需求 guidance指導,
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很顯然一般民眾需要一些指導,
00:20
because the average平均 bank銀行 robbery搶劫 nets
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因為銀行搶案
00:23
only 7,500 dollars美元.
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平均只搶到美金 7,500 元。
00:26
Rank amateurs業餘 who know nothing
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這完全是不懂得如何做假帳
00:28
about how to cook廚師 the books圖書.
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業餘等級的水準。
00:30
The folks鄉親 who know, of course課程,
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當然,那些內行的人,
00:32
run our largest最大 banks銀行,
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都是大銀行的高層,
00:34
and in the last go-around四處走走,
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上一次他們一出手,
00:36
they cost成本 us over 11 trillion dollars美元.
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我們就損失 11 兆美元。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks容貌 like.
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11 兆美元看起來像這樣 。
00:43
That's how many許多 zeros?
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這個金額有幾個零?
00:45
And cost成本 us over 10 million百萬 jobs工作 as well.
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也讓我們損失超過 1000 萬個
工作機會。
00:48
So our task任務 is to educate教育 ourselves我們自己
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所以當務之急是自我教育,
00:51
so that we can understand理解
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以了解
00:52
why we have these recurrent復發,
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為何金融危機一再發生,
00:54
intensifying加強 financial金融 crises危機,
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而且變本加厲,
00:56
and how we can prevent避免 them in the future未來.
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以及如何防範於未來。
01:00
And the answer回答 to that is
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答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics流行病 of control控制 fraud舞弊.
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我們必須杜絶大規模
管理詐欺的行為,
01:06
Control控制 fraud舞弊 is what happens發生
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管理詐欺是指
01:08
when the people who control控制,
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管理者,
01:10
typically一般 a CEOCEO,
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尤其是執行長,
01:12
a seemingly似乎 legitimate合法 entity實體,
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管理一個貌似合法的機構時,
01:14
use it as a weapon武器 to defraud騙取.
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把這個機構當成詐騙的武器。
01:17
And these are the weapons武器 of mass destruction毀壞
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這是金融界裡
01:20
in the financial金融 world世界.
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最具殺傷力的武器。
01:22
They also follow跟隨 in finance金融 a particular特定 strategy戰略,
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在金融界裡,
他們也採用一種特定的策略,
01:27
because the weapon武器 of choice選擇 in finance金融
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因為他們在財務上所用的武器
01:30
is accounting會計,
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就是會計方法,
01:31
and there is a recipe食譜 for accounting會計
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以會計方法管理詐欺行為
01:35
control控制 fraud舞弊, and how it occurs發生.
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及其發生有個秘訣,
01:37
And we discovered發現 this recipe食譜
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我們在很不尋常的情況下
01:39
in quite相當 an odd way that I'll
come back to in a moment時刻.
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發現了這個秘訣,
我稍後再談。
01:42
First ingredient成分 in the recipe食譜: grow增長 like crazy;
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第一個秘訣是:
瘋狂地擴張公司資本;
01:46
second第二, by making製造 or buying購買 really crappy蹩腳的 loans貸款,
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第二個秘訣是:
放出或購買高風險貸款,
01:51
but loans貸款 that are made製作 at a very high interest利益 rate
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這種貸款的利率
01:54
or yield產量;
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或收益非常高;
01:56
three, while employing採用 extreme極端 leverage槓桿作用 --
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第三個秘訣是:利用高度財務槓桿
01:58
that just means手段 a lot of debt債務 --
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這意味著對資產而言
01:59
compared相比 to your equity公平;
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有著很大比率的負債;
02:01
and four, while providing提供 only trivial不重要的 loss失利 reserves儲量
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第四個秘訣是:提供極少的準備金
02:05
against反對 the inevitable必然 losses損失.
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去因應呆帳損失。
02:07
If you follow跟隨 those four simple簡單 steps腳步,
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如果你遵循這四個簡單的步驟,
02:11
and any bank銀行 can follow跟隨 them,
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任何銀行都做得到,
02:13
then you are mathematically數學 guaranteed保證
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保證一定會發生
02:15
to have three things occur發生.
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以下三種情況,
02:18
The first thing is
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第一是:
02:19
you will report報告 record記錄 bank銀行 profits利潤 --
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銀行有很高的帳面利潤
02:23
not just high, record記錄.
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不只是高,而是史無前例地高。
02:25
Two, the CEOCEO will immediately立即
be made製作 incredibly令人難以置信 wealthy富裕
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第二:以目前管理階層的薪資結構,
02:30
by modern現代 executive行政人員 compensation賠償金.
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執行長將一夕致富。
02:33
And three, farther更遠 down the road,
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第三:長久以來,
02:36
the bank銀行 will suffer遭受 catastrophic災難性的 losses損失
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銀行將蒙受巨大的損失
02:39
and will fail失敗 unless除非 it is bailed跳傘 out.
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除非獲得金援,不然就會倒閉。
02:42
And that's a hint暗示 as to how
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了解事情的來龍去脈後,
02:46
we discovered發現 this recipe食譜,
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我們才發現了這個秘訣,
02:48
because we discovered發現 it
through通過 an autopsy屍檢 process處理.
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這是經過我們抽絲剝繭分析出的。
02:52
During the savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰 in 1984,
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1984 年貸款危機期間,
02:57
we looked看著 at every一切 single failure失敗,
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我們研究每一個破產案例,
02:59
and we looked看著 for common共同 characteristics特點,
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尋找其中的共同點,
03:02
and we discovered發現 this recipe食譜 was common共同
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我們發現這個秘訣
普遍存在於每一個詐欺案例中。
03:06
to each of these frauds欺詐.
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03:08
In other words, a coroner驗屍官 could find these things
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換句話說,
稽查員能夠查到這些事項
03:11
because this is a fatal致命 recipe食譜
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因為這致命秘訣
03:14
that will destroy破壞 the banks銀行
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不但摧毀銀行
03:16
as well as the economy經濟.
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也會摧毀經濟。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely恰恰
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結果它正是
03:21
what could have stopped停止 this crisis危機,
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可以阻止這類危機的方法,
03:23
the one that cost成本 us 11 trillion dollars美元
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這危機讓我們損失 11 兆美元,
03:26
just in the household家庭 sector扇形,
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這只是住房領域(房貸部門)而已,
03:28
that cost成本 us 10 million百萬 jobs工作,
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也讓我們失去 1000 萬個
工作機會,
03:30
was the easiest最簡單的 financial金融 crisis危機 by far
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這是目前為止最輕而易舉
03:33
to have avoided避免 completely全然
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完全解決金融危機,
03:36
if we had simply只是 learned學到了 the lessons教訓
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只要我們從大規模管理詐欺中
03:38
of epidemics流行病 of control控制 fraud舞弊,
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記取教訓,
03:40
particularly尤其 using運用 this recipe食譜.
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善加運用這個秘訣。
03:43
So let's go to this crisis危機,
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接下來我們開始討論這類危機,
03:45
and the two huge巨大 epidemics流行病
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二種大規模貸款詐欺
03:47
of loan貸款 origination首創 fraud舞弊 that drove開車 the crisis危機 --
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導致發生危機的來源是:
03:51
appraisal評價 fraud舞弊 and liar's騙子的 loans貸款 --
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估價詐欺和欺騙性貸款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
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我們將發現:
03:55
in looking at both of these is
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第一:對於這些詐欺行為
03:58
we got warnings警告 that were incredibly令人難以置信 early
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在相當早之前
04:01
about these frauds欺詐.
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就會獲得警訊。
04:03
We got warnings警告 that we could
have taken採取 advantage優點 of easily容易,
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第二:藉由這些警訊
我們可以輕易採取預防措施,
04:07
because back in the savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰,
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早在儲貨危機發生時,
04:09
we had figured想通 out how to respond響應
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我們就知道如何因應
04:12
and prevent避免 these crises危機.
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以避免發生這些危機。
04:14
And three, the warnings警告 were unambiguous明確的.
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第三:這些警訊相當明確。
04:17
They were obvious明顯 that what was going on
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清楚顯示
04:20
was an epidemic疫情 of accounting會計 control控制 fraud舞弊 building建造 up.
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大規模的會計管理詐欺行為
正在擴大。
04:25
Let's take appraisal評價 fraud舞弊 first.
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我們先來看估價詐欺。
04:27
This is simply只是 where you inflate膨脹 the value
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簡單地說,估價詐欺就是
04:29
of the home that is being存在 pledged承諾
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誇大用來擔保貸款
04:32
as security安全 for the loan貸款.
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的房屋價值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
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在 2000 年,
04:38
that is over a year before Enron安然 fails失敗, by the way,
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這是安隆破產的一年多前,
04:43
the honest誠實 appraisers估價師 got together一起 a formal正式 petition請願
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正直的估價師共同擬定一份請願書
04:47
begging乞討 the federal聯邦 government政府 to act法案,
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要求聯邦政府採取措施,
04:50
and the industry行業 to act法案,
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及相關業者採取措施,
04:52
to stop this epidemic疫情 of appraisal評價 fraud舞弊.
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去阻止大規模的估價詐欺行為。
04:56
And the appraisers估價師 explained解釋 how it was occurring發生,
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估價師解釋這類詐欺行為如何發生,
04:59
that banks銀行 were demanding嚴格 that appraisers估價師
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銀行要求估價師
05:03
inflate膨脹 the appraisal評價,
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誇大其估價,
05:04
and that if the appraisers估價師 refused拒絕 to do so,
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如果估價師拒絕配合,
05:08
they, the banks銀行, would blacklist黑名單
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銀行就會將這些正直的估價師
05:12
honest誠實 appraisers估價師
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列入黑名單。
05:14
and refuse垃圾 to use them.
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不再僱用他們。
05:16
Now, we've我們已經 seen看到 this before
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在儲貸危機期間
05:19
in the savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰,
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我們已經看過這種情形,
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud舞弊
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我們知道這種詐欺行為
05:22
can only originate起源 from the lenders貸款人,
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只可能來自貸方,
05:25
and that no honest誠實 lender貸款人 would ever inflate膨脹
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不誠實的貸方
05:28
the appraisal評價,
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想要為估價灌水,
05:29
because it's the great protection保護 against反對 loss失利.
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因為這是防止損失的最好方法。
05:32
So this was an incredibly令人難以置信 early warning警告, 2000.
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所以,這個預警訊號
早在 2000 年就出現,
05:36
It was something we'd星期三 seen看到 before,
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這是我們之前看過,
05:38
and it was completely全然 unambiguous明確的.
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且是相當明確的警訊。
05:40
This was an epidemic疫情 of accounting會計 control控制 fraud舞弊
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這些大規模會計管理詐欺行為
05:44
led by the banks銀行.
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是由銀行所主導的。
05:45
What about liar's騙子的 loans貸款?
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接下來,什麼是詐欺貸款呢?
05:47
Well, that warning警告 actually其實 comes earlier.
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實際上,這個警訊出現的更早。
05:51
The savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰 is basically基本上
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儲貨危機基本上是發生於
05:54
the early 1980s through通過 1993,
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1980 年代的早期
一直到 1993 年,
05:57
and in the midst中間 of fighting戰鬥 that wave
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在打擊會計管理詐欺
06:00
of accounting會計 control控制 fraud舞弊,
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的行動中,
06:02
in 1990, we found發現 that a second第二 front面前
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在 1990 年,我們發現
出現第二波的詐欺行為。
06:07
of fraud舞弊 was being存在 started開始.
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06:09
And like all good financial金融 frauds欺詐 in America美國,
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如同美國所有經過精心策畫
的金融詐欺,
06:11
it began開始 in Orange橙子 County, California加州.
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起源於加州橘縣,
06:15
And we happened發生 to be the regional區域性 regulators監管機構 for it.
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我們恰巧是當地的監管單位
06:18
And our examiners考官 said,
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我們的稽查人員說,
06:20
they are making製造 loans貸款 without even checking檢查
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銀行根本沒有查核
06:23
what the borrower's借款人 income收入 is.
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借款人的收入情況就放款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive大規模的 losses損失,
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真是太離譜了,
必定會導致巨大的損失,
06:30
and it only makes品牌 sense for entities實體 engaged訂婚
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這種情況只有金融機構
06:34
in these accounting會計 control控制 frauds欺詐.
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參與會計管理詐欺。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely絕對 right,
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我們對稽核人員說,你們說的對,
06:38
and we drove開車 those liar's騙子的 loans貸款
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於 1990 及 1991 年
06:41
out of the industry行業 in 1990 and 1991,
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我們將詐欺借款逐出金融業,
06:46
but we could only deal合同 with the industry行業
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但是,我們只能處理
06:48
we had jurisdiction管轄權 over,
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權限範圍內的業務,
06:50
which哪一個 was savings and loans貸款,
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也就是儲蓄和貸款業務,
06:52
and so the biggest最大 and the baddest最不好的 of the frauds欺詐,
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其中最大、最惡劣的銀行-
06:55
Long Beach海灘 Savings, voluntarily自行 gave up
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長灘儲貸銀行,主動放棄此業務,
06:58
its federal聯邦 savings and loan貸款 charter憲章,
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主動放棄聯邦政府頒發的
儲蓄和借貸執照,
07:01
gave up federal聯邦 deposit存款 insurance保險,
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放棄聯邦銀行的存款保險,
07:03
converted轉換 to become成為 a mortgage抵押 bank銀行
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變成一家抵押銀行,
07:06
for the sole唯一 purpose目的 of escaping逃逸 our jurisdiction管轄權,
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只為了逃避我們的監管,
07:09
and changed its name名稱 to AmeriquestAmeriquest,
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並把公司名稱改為 Ameriquest,
07:11
and became成為 the most notorious臭名昭著
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是早期欺騙性借貸詐欺行為中
07:13
of the liar's騙子的 loans貸款 frauds欺詐 early on,
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最為惡名昭彰的銀行。
07:17
and to add to that,
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此外,
07:18
they deliberately故意 predated upon minorities少數民族.
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他們還故意欺騙少數民族。
07:23
So we knew知道 again about this crisis危機.
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所以我們了解這類詐欺性貸款危機。
07:27
We'd星期三 seen看到 it before. We'd星期三 stopped停止 it before.
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我們之前看過,也阻止過。
07:31
We had incredibly令人難以置信 early warnings警告 of it,
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在相當早之前就接獲警訊,
07:34
and it was absolutely絕對 unambiguous明確的
158
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此警訊相當明確
07:36
that no honest誠實 lender貸款人 would
make loans貸款 in this fashion時尚.
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正直的貸方絶不會做這種放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction反應
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我們看一下銀行業,
07:43
of the industry行業 and the regulators監管機構
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監管機關,
07:46
and the prosecutors檢察官 to these clear明確
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檢調單位的反應
07:48
early warnings警告 that could have prevented防止 the crisis危機.
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就能夠及早獲得警訊,
預防危機的發生。
07:53
Start開始 with the industry行業.
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先從金融業開始,
07:55
The industry行業 responded回應 between之間 2003 and 2006
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從 2003 年到 2006 年,
08:01
by increasing增加 liar's騙子的 loans貸款
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金融業的詐騙性貸款業務
08:04
by over 500 percent百分.
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增加超過 500%。
08:09
These were the loans貸款
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這些貸款
08:11
that hyperinflated過度膨脹 the bubble泡沫
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過度膨漲,泡沬化,
08:12
and produced生成 the economic經濟 crisis危機.
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造成經濟危機。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans貸款 called subprime次貸
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截至 2006 年,半數所謂的次級貸款
08:21
were also liar's騙子的 loans貸款.
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就是詐欺性貸款。
08:23
They're not mutually相互 exclusive獨家, it's just that together一起,
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這兩者非獨立運作,而是互相影響,
08:26
they're the most toxic有毒的 combination組合
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形成你所能想像的
08:29
you can possibly或者 imagine想像.
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致命組合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent百分 of all the loans貸款
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於 2006 年,有 40% 的貸款,
08:34
made製作 that year, all the home loans貸款 made製作 that year,
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所申請的房屋貸款
08:37
were liar's騙子的 loans貸款,
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是屬於詐欺性貸款,
08:40
40 percent百分.
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高達 40%!
08:41
And this is despite儘管 a warning警告
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儘管銀行業的
08:44
from the industry's業界 own擁有 antifraud反欺詐 experts專家
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反詐欺專家警告
08:47
that said that these loans貸款 were an open打開 invitation請帖
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這些詐欺性貸款
08:50
to fraudsters騙子,
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有如引狼入室,
08:52
and that they had a fraud舞弊 incidence發生率
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詐騙率
08:54
of 90 percent百分,
185
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達到 90%,
08:56
nine zero.
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是九十喔。
08:59
In response響應 to that, the industry行業
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金融業的反應是,
09:02
first started開始 calling調用 these loans貸款 liar's騙子的 loans貸款,
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首先:一開始稱這種貸款
為詐欺性貸款,
09:07
which哪一個 lacks缺乏 a certain某些 subtlety明敏,
189
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這個稱呼不是很好,
09:11
and second第二, massively大規模 increased增加 them,
190
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第二是:大幅地增加這種貸款,
09:14
and no government政府 regulator調節器 ever
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政府監管機關沒有
09:17
required需要 or encouraged鼓勵 any lender貸款人
192
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要求或鼓勵貸方
09:21
to make a liar's騙子的 loan貸款
193
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去做詐騙性貸款
09:22
or anyone任何人 to purchase採購 a liar's騙子的 loan貸款,
194
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或買入詐騙性貸款,
09:25
and that explicitly明確地 includes包括 Fannie房利美 and Freddie房地美.
195
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3170
當然包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came來了 from the lenders貸款人
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這詐欺性貸款的手法
09:30
because of the fraud舞弊 recipe食譜.
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歸咎於貸方的問題。
09:33
What happened發生 to appraisal評價 fraud舞弊?
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估價詐欺又是怎麼一回事呢?
09:36
It expanded擴大 remarkably異常 as well.
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同樣也是非常快速地膨漲起來。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey調查 of appraisers估價師 was doneDONE,
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2007 年,
有一份估價師的調查報告,
09:43
90 percent百分 of appraisers估價師 reported報導
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90% 的估價師表示,
09:46
that they had been subject學科 to coercion強迫
202
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貸方曾向他們施壓
09:48
from the lenders貸款人 trying to get them
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要求將估價
09:51
to inflate膨脹 an appraisal評價.
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灌水。
09:52
In other words, both forms形式 of fraud舞弊
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換句話說,這兩種型態的詐欺,
09:55
became成為 absolutely絕對 endemic流行 and normal正常,
206
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3774
已變成通病和常態,
09:59
and this is what drove開車 the bubble泡沫.
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這是造成經濟泡沫化的原因。
10:01
What happened發生 in the governmental政府 sector扇形?
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政府單位又是怎麼一回事?
10:04
Well, the government政府, as I told you,
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至於政府,就如我所說的,
10:06
when we were the savings and loan貸款 regulators監管機構,
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2716
我們在執行儲貸監管業務時,
10:09
we could only deal合同 with our industry行業,
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只能處理我們負責的業務,
10:12
and if people gave up their
federal聯邦 deposit存款 insurance保險,
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如果貸方放棄聯邦政府存款保險
10:14
we couldn't不能 do anything to them.
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我們也束手無策。
10:16
Congress國會, it may可能 strike罷工 you as impossible不可能,
214
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3329
至於國會議員,或許你不相信,
10:20
but actually其實 did something intelligent智能 in 1994,
215
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3248
事實上,他們在 1994 年
做了一點聰明事,
10:23
and passed通過 the Home Ownership所有權
and Equity公平 Protection保護 Act法案
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3553
通過了「房屋所有權和權益保護法」
10:26
that gave the Fed美聯儲, and only the Federal聯邦 Reserve保留,
217
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3253
賦予美國聯邦儲備局(美聯儲),
只限美聯儲
10:30
the explicit明確的, statutory法定的 authority權威 to ban禁止 liar's騙子的 loans貸款
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明確的法定權力,禁止貸款人的
10:34
by every一切 lender貸款人,
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2106
詐欺貸款業務,
10:36
whether是否 or not they had federal聯邦 deposit存款 insurance保險.
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無論貸款人是否擁有聯邦存款保險,
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke伯南克 and Alan艾倫 Greenspan格林斯潘,
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627358
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當柏南奇和葛林斯潘
10:42
as chairs椅子 of the Fed美聯儲, do
222
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1967
任職美聯儲主席時,
是採取何種措施
10:44
when they got these warnings警告
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1906
以回應以下的警訊:
10:46
that these were massively大規模 fraudulent騙人的 loans貸款
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3010
大規模的詐欺貸款
10:49
and that they were being存在 sold出售
to the secondary次要 market市場?
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3354
以及把這些貸款賣給次級市場?
10:53
Remember記得, there's no fraud舞弊 exorcist祓魔師.
226
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2220
請記住,沒有人可以讓這些詐欺消失。
10:55
Once一旦 it starts啟動 out a fraudulent騙人的 loan貸款,
227
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一旦發生詐欺貸款,
10:57
it can only be sold出售 to the secondary次要 market市場
228
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2312
只能透過更多的詐欺貸款
10:59
through通過 more frauds欺詐,
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1196
轉賣給次級市場,
11:00
lying說謊 about the reps代表 and warrantees被擔保人,
230
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2548
捏造財務報告和保證條款,
11:03
and then those people are going to produce生產
231
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1608
然後再包裝成
11:05
mortgage-backed抵押貸款支持 securities證券
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不動產抵押貸款證券
11:06
and exotic異國情調 derivatives衍生品
233
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1268
和衍生性金融商品
11:07
which哪一個 are also going to be supposedly按說 backed已備份
234
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3222
而為這些產品擔保的是
11:10
by those fraudulent騙人的 loans貸款.
235
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1723
詐欺貸款。
11:12
So the fraud舞弊 is going to progress進展
236
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1541
所以詐欺貸款
11:14
through通過 the entire整個 system系統,
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貫穿整個金融借貸系統,
11:15
hyperinflatehyperinflate the bubble泡沫, produce生產 a disaster災害.
238
663708
3253
惡性通貨膨脹造成泡沬化,
造成災難。
11:18
And remember記得, we had experience經驗 with this.
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3301
請記得,這類災難我們經歷過,
11:22
We had seen看到 significant重大 losses損失,
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我們遭受巨大的損失,
11:24
and we had experience經驗 of competent勝任 regulators監管機構
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監管機關也阻止
11:27
in stopping停止 it.
242
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1490
這類危機的發生。
11:29
Greenspan格林斯潘 and Bernanke伯南克 refused拒絕
243
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2896
葛林斯潘和柏克南拒絕
11:32
to use the authority權威 under the statute法令
244
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2411
法律賦予他們的權力
11:34
to stop liar's騙子的 loans貸款.
245
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2317
去阻止詐欺貸款。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma教條.
246
685110
2564
首先,這是完全是其個人武斷的看法。
11:39
They're just horrifically速度驚人 opposed反對
247
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2851
他們只竭盡所能地
11:42
to anything regulatory監管.
248
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1819
反對任何監管措施。
11:44
But it is also the international國際 competition競爭 in laxity鬆弛,
249
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4716
國際之間的寬鬆政策競爭,
11:49
the race種族 to the bottom底部
250
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1284
競相降低貨款的門檻,
11:50
between之間 the United聯合的 States狀態 and the United聯合的 Kingdom王國,
251
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4035
尤其是美國和英國,
11:54
the city of London倫敦, in particular特定,
252
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1601
特別是倫敦,
11:55
and the city of London倫敦 won韓元 that race種族 to the bottom底部,
253
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2970
倫敦贏得最低貸款門檻的封號,
11:58
but it meant意味著 that all regulation in the West西
254
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3852
這表示西方國家的監管制度,
12:02
was completely全然 degraded降級
255
710802
2004
在這場誰是最鬆散監管的
12:04
in this stupid competition競爭 to be
256
712806
2084
愚蠢競賽中,
12:06
who could have the weakest最弱 regulation.
257
714890
2072
已徹底退化。
12:08
So that was the regulatory監管 response響應.
258
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2050
這是監管機關的反應。
12:11
What about the response響應 of the prosecutors檢察官
259
719012
3657
檢調單位對金融危機發生後
12:14
after the crisis危機,
260
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1735
的反應又是什麼呢?
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars美元 in losses損失,
261
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4198
在 11 兆美金的損失之後,
12:20
after 10 million百萬 jobs工作 lost丟失,
262
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2040
喪失 1000 萬個工作之後,
12:22
a crisis危機 in which哪一個 the losses損失 and the frauds欺詐
263
730642
3284
在這場損失和詐欺的規模,
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
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3455
比儲貸危機
12:29
than the savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰?
265
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2304
還要大上 70 倍之後呢?
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan貸款 debacle崩潰,
266
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1891
好,在儲貸危機當中,
12:33
our agency機構 that regulated調控 savings and loans貸款, OTSOTS,
267
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3970
負責監管儲貸的機關,
也就是 OTS(儲蓄管理局),
12:37
made製作 over 30,000 criminal刑事 referrals推介,
268
745546
4084
提出 30,000 個刑事訴訟,
12:41
produced生成 over 1,000 felony重罪 convictions信念
269
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2636
超過 1,000 人被判以重罪,
12:44
just in cases designated特定 as major重大的,
270
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2674
這只是重大刑案部分,
12:46
and that understates低估 the degree of prioritization優先,
271
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3138
嚴重的問題尚未浮上枱面,
12:50
because we worked工作 with the FBI聯邦調查局
272
758078
1796
因為我們與聯邦調查局 (FBI) 併肩合作
12:51
to create創建 the list名單 of the top最佳 100 fraud舞弊 schemes方案,
273
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4264
列出國內最惡劣的
12:56
the absolute絕對 worst最差 of the worst最差, nationwide全國.
274
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3264
前 100 個詐欺名單。
12:59
Roughly大致 300 savings and loans貸款 involved參與,
275
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2784
大約有 300 件儲貸違法,
13:02
roughly大致 600 senior前輩 officials官員.
276
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3314
600 名高階主管涉案。
13:05
Virtually實質上 all of them were prosecuted起訴.
277
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2340
他們幾乎全部被起訴。
13:07
We had a 90 percent百分 conviction定罪 rate.
278
775840
2831
90% 被判有罪。
13:10
It's the greatest最大 success成功 against反對
279
778671
1830
這是有史以來,對抗白領犯罪
13:12
elite原種 white白色 collar criminals罪犯 ever,
280
780501
2602
最大的勝利,
13:15
and it was because of this understanding理解
281
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2236
那是因為我們了解這類
13:17
of control控制 fraud舞弊
282
785339
1335
詐欺的手法,
13:18
and the accounting會計 control控制 fraud舞弊 mechanism機制.
283
786674
2511
以及會計管理詐欺機制。
13:21
Flash forward前鋒 to the current當前 crisis危機.
284
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3172
回到當前的金融危機。
13:24
The same相同 agency機構, Office辦公室 of Thrift節約 Supervision監督,
285
792357
2573
同一個機構,儲蓄管理局,
13:26
which哪一個 was supposed應該 to regulate調節
286
794930
1630
應該要去監管
13:28
many許多 of the largest最大 makers製造商 of liar's騙子的 loans貸款
287
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2097
國內許多
13:30
in the country國家,
288
798657
1107
詐欺貸款的銀行,
13:31
has made製作, even today今天 -- it no longer exists存在,
289
799764
4694
直至今天,雖然該局已經不存在了,
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
804458
1808
但直到一年前,
13:38
it had made製作 zero criminal刑事 referrals推介.
291
806266
4844
刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:43
The Office辦公室 of the Comptroller主計長 of the Currency貨幣,
292
811110
1696
應該要去監管國內各大銀行
13:44
which哪一個 is supposed應該 to regulate調節
the largest最大 national國民 banks銀行,
293
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2516
的金融管理局,
13:47
has made製作 zero criminal刑事 referrals推介.
294
815322
2551
提出的刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:49
The Fed美聯儲 appears出現 to have made製作
295
817873
1626
美聯儲提出的
13:51
zero criminal刑事 referrals推介.
296
819499
1995
刑事訴訟案件也是掛零。
13:53
The Federal聯邦 Deposit存款 Insurance保險 Corporation公司
297
821494
1955
聯邦存款保險公司狡滑地
13:55
is smart聰明 enough足夠 to refuse垃圾 to answer回答 the question.
298
823449
4534
迴避了這個問題。
13:59
Without沒有 any guidance指導 from the regulators監管機構,
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沒有任何監管機關的協助,
14:05
there's no expertise專門知識 in the FBI聯邦調查局
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833518
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聯邦調查局沒有相關專業知識,
14:08
to investigate調查 complex複雜 frauds欺詐.
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來調查如此複雜的詐欺案件。
14:10
It isn't simply只是 that they've他們已經 had
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1932
原因不是單純地
14:12
to reinvent重塑 the wheel
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1822
必須重新擬定
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions起訴;
304
842626
1918
提出訴訟的策略;
14:16
they've他們已經 forgotten忘記了 that the wheel exists存在,
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他們是忘了訴訟這件事,
14:21
and therefore因此, we have zero prosecutions起訴,
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所以造成這場危機的
14:25
and of course課程, zero convictions信念,
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853398
2602
頂尖銀行詐欺高手,
14:28
of any of the elite原種 bank銀行 frauds欺詐,
308
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2790
沒有人被起訴,
14:30
the Wall Street types類型,
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華爾街的詐欺高手,
14:32
that drove開車 this crisis危機.
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當然也沒有人被定罪,
14:35
With no expertise專門知識 coming未來 from the regulators監管機構,
311
863459
2237
在監管機關沒有提供專業的協助下,
14:37
the FBI聯邦調查局 formed形成 what it calls電話 a partnership合夥
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865696
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聯邦調查局在 2007 年
14:40
with the Mortgage抵押 Bankers銀行家 Association協會 in 2007.
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868787
4323
與抵押貸款協會合作。
14:45
The Mortgage抵押 Bankers銀行家 Association協會
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873110
1833
抵押貸款協會
14:46
is the trade貿易 association協會 of the perps犯罪者.
315
874943
3751
正是幹這些壞事的同業公會。
14:50
And the Mortgage抵押 Bankers銀行家 Association協會
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2416
抵押貸款協會
14:53
set out, it had the audacity大膽 and the success成功
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開始行動後,膽大妄為
並成功地欺瞞聯邦調查局。
14:56
to con the FBI聯邦調查局.
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1678
14:58
It had created創建 a supposed應該 definition定義
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886578
3077
為抵押貸款詐欺
下了一個似是而非的定義,
15:01
of mortgage抵押 fraud舞弊, in which哪一個, guess猜測 what,
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889655
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你知道他們怎麼說嗎,
15:04
its members會員 are always the victim受害者
321
892530
1862
協會的成員是受害者,
15:06
and never the perpetrators肇事者.
322
894392
2017
沒有詐欺的行為。
15:08
And the FBI聯邦調查局 has bought this hook, line, sinker沉子,
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聯邦調查局不疑有他,
15:12
rod竿, reel捲軸 and the boat they rode騎著車 out in.
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4081
抵押貸款協會闖關成功。
15:17
And so the FBI聯邦調查局,
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905004
3056
至於聯邦調查局,
15:20
under the leadership領導 of an attorney律師 general一般
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3098
在非裔美籍的
15:23
who is African-American非裔美國人
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911158
1174
司法部長,
15:24
and a president主席 of the United聯合的
States狀態 who is African-American非裔美國人,
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2462
及非裔美籍總統的領導下,
15:26
have adopted採用 the Tea Party派對 definition定義 of the crisis危機,
329
914794
3500
採信茶黨對金融危機的說詞,
15:30
in which哪一個 it is the first virgin處女 crisis危機 in history歷史,
330
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3482
這是歷史上第一宗
15:33
conceived設想 without sin in the executive行政人員 ranks行列.
331
921776
3678
管理高層沒被定罪的
怪異金融危機事件。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever哦,所以,聰明 hairdressers美髮師
332
925454
3396
問題在那些聰明狡滑的小角色,
15:40
who were able能夠 to defraud騙取 the poor較差的, pitiful可憐 banks銀行,
333
928850
3218
他們能夠欺騙毫無金融經驗,
15:44
who lack缺乏 any financial金融 sophistication詭辯.
334
932068
2384
可憐的銀行業者,
15:46
It is the silliest最愚蠢的 story故事 you can conceive構想 of,
335
934452
3358
這是你能想像的最愚蠢說法,
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute起訴 the hairdressers美髮師,
336
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3901
所以他們起訴那些小角色,
15:53
and they leave離開 the bankstersbanksters alone單獨 entirely完全.
337
941711
4179
銀行高層毫髮未傷。
15:57
And so, while lions獅子 are roaming漫遊 the campsite營地,
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945890
2910
因此,那些詐欺者仍然逍遙法外,
16:00
the FBI聯邦調查局 is chasing mice老鼠.
339
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3210
聯邦調查局只是追逐小老鼠,
而不去抓大獅子。
16:04
What do we need to do?
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1430
我們該怎麼做?
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
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面對這一切,我們該做些什麼?
16:07
We need to change更改 the perverse incentive激勵 structures結構
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955944
3819
我們必須改變不正當的激勵機制,
16:11
that produce生產 these recurrent復發 epidemics流行病
343
959763
2996
正是因為這種機制
讓大規模會計管理詐欺
的事件一再發生,
16:14
of accounting會計 control控制 fraud舞弊
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962759
1329
16:16
that are driving主動 our crises危機.
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964088
2014
因而造成財務危機。
16:18
So we have to first get rid擺脫
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2888
所以首先必需排除
16:20
of the systemically全身 dangerous危險 institutions機構.
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968990
2488
具有系統危險性的金融機構。
16:23
These are the so-called所謂 too-big-to-fail太大而不能倒閉 institutions機構.
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971478
3485
是所謂的「大到不能倒」的金融機構,
16:26
We need to shrink收縮 them to the point,
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2142
在未來的 5 年當中,
16:29
within the next下一個 five years年份,
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977105
1595
我們必須縮小它們的規模,
16:30
that they no longer pose提出 a systemic系統的 risk風險.
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978700
2735
使它們不再有系統性風險。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking滴答 time bombs炸彈
352
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2137
現在它們是定時炸彈,
16:35
that will cause原因 a global全球 crisis危機
353
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3343
一旦其中一家銀行倒閉,
16:38
as soon不久 as the next下一個 one fails失敗 --
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2349
將引發全球性金融危機。
16:41
not if, when.
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989264
1796
不是會不會倒,
而是何時會倒的問題。
16:43
Second第二 thing we need to do is completely全然 reform改革
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2911
第二:必須徹底改革
16:45
modern現代 executive行政人員 and professional專業的 compensation賠償金,
357
993971
2992
當今高階管理人員的酬薪制度,
16:48
which哪一個 is what they use to suborn賄買 the appraisers估價師.
358
996963
4343
他們以高薪來收買估價師。
16:53
Remember記得, they were pressuring施壓 the appraisers估價師
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1001306
1888
請記住,他們透過酬薪制度
16:55
through通過 the compensation賠償金 system系統,
360
1003194
1782
對估價師施壓,
16:56
trying to produce生產 what we call a Gresham's格雷欣 dynamic動態,
361
1004976
2662
試圖產生所謂的
格萊欣 (Gresham) 效應,
16:59
in which哪一個 bad ethics倫理 drives驅動器 good ethics倫理
362
1007638
2579
在市場上
17:02
out of the marketplace市井.
363
1010217
1366
以劣幣趨逐良幣。
17:03
And they largely大部分 succeeded成功,
364
1011583
1936
他們獲得大勝利,
17:05
which哪一個 is how the fraud舞弊 became成為 endemic流行.
365
1013519
2883
這是為何詐欺行為
像流行病般蔓延開來,
17:08
And the third第三 thing that we need to do
366
1016402
2698
第三件們必需做的事是:
17:11
is deal合同 with what we call the three D'sD的:
367
1019100
2638
去處理我們所謂的 3D:
17:13
deregulation放鬆管制, desupervisiondesupervision,
368
1021738
2581
放寬管制 (Deregulation),
放寬監督 (Desupervision),
17:16
and the de facto事實上 decriminalization合法化.
369
1024319
4021
事實上的合法化
(De Facto Decriminalization )。
17:20
Because we can make
370
1028340
2097
我們能改革以上三件事,
17:22
all three of these changes變化, and if we do so,
371
1030437
3674
如果我們這麼做,
17:26
we can dramatically顯著 reduce減少
372
1034111
2809
就能夠大幅減少
17:28
how often經常 we have a crisis危機
373
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2192
危機發生的頻率
17:31
and how severe嚴重 those crises危機 are.
374
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3627
以及危機發生後的危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply只是 critical危急 to our economy經濟.
375
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2981
這不僅對經濟而言相當重要。
17:37
You can see what these crises危機 do to inequality不等式
376
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3426
你可以看出危機造成貧富不均
17:41
and what they do to our democracy民主.
377
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2320
以及對民主制度的影響。
17:43
They have produced生成 crony裙帶 capitalism資本主義,
378
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2744
它造成美國式的
17:46
American-style美式風格,
379
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1382
親信資本主義,
17:47
in which哪一個 the largest最大 financial金融 institutions機構
380
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3278
其中最大型的金融機構
17:50
are the leading領導 financial金融 donors捐助者 of both parties派對,
381
1058870
3644
是兩黨的主要金主,
17:54
and that's the reason原因 why
382
1062514
1920
這就是為何
17:56
even after this crisis危機,
383
1064434
3975
比儲貸危機還嚴重 70 倍
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan貸款 crisis危機,
384
1068409
5285
的危機發生後,
18:05
we have no meaningful富有意義的 reforms改革
385
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2854
除了取締詐欺性貸款外,
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
386
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3374
以上我提到的 3 個層面
18:11
other than banning取締 liar's騙子的 loans貸款,
387
1079922
1792
依然沒有實際上的改革。
18:13
which哪一個 is good,
388
1081714
1076
這是好事,
18:14
but that's just one form形成 of ammunition彈藥
389
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2424
詐欺性貸款只是
18:17
for this fraud舞弊 weapon武器.
390
1085214
1396
其中一種武器。
18:18
There are many許多 forms形式 of ammunition彈藥 they can use.
391
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3981
他們可使用的武器相當多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn學習
392
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1751
這就是為何我們需要學習
18:24
what the bankers銀行家 have learned學到了:
393
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2112
銀行家們的手法:
18:26
the recipe食譜 for the best最好 way to rob a bank銀行,
394
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3423
搶銀行的最佳秘訣,
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe食譜,
395
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2865
這樣我們才能遏止這種做法,
18:32
because our legislators立法者,
396
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1762
因為我們的立法者,
18:34
who are dependent依賴的 on political政治 contributions捐款,
397
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2690
仰賴政治獻金,
18:37
will not do it on their own擁有.
398
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2194
他們不會主動採取行動。
18:39
Thank you very much.
399
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2070
謝謝各位。
18:41
(Applause掌聲)
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2127
(掌聲)
Translated by Yamei Huang
Reviewed by Adrienne Lin

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
William Black - Academic
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City.

Why you should listen

William Black is an associate professor of economics and law. He was the executive director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. He previously taught at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and at Santa Clara University, where he was also the distinguished scholar in residence for insurance law and a visiting scholar at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. Black was litigation director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, deputy director of the FSLIC, SVP and general counsel of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and senior deputy chief counsel, Office of Thrift Supervision. He was deputy director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement.

His 2005 book The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One has been called “a classic.” Professor Black recently helped the World Bank develop anti-corruption initiatives and served as an expert for OFHEO in its enforcement action against Fannie Mae’s former senior management.

He teaches white-collar crime, public finance, antitrust, law and economics, and Latin American development.

More profile about the speaker
William Black | Speaker | TED.com