TEDxUMKC
William Black: How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is)
威廉‧布雷克: 如何搶銀行？（從銀行內部下手，別懷疑）
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威廉‧布雷克曾經是銀行的監管人員，從他的親身經歴中，看到人們是如何利用銀行體系進行詐欺，看到詐欺性貸款和其他狡滑手法，是如何導致 2008 年美國銀行業的危機，因此威脅全球的經濟。在這場精彩的演講中，目前從事於學術工作的布雷克揭發搶銀行的最佳方式：從內部下手。
William Black - Academic
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City. Full bio
William Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So today's top chef class is in how to rob a bank,
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今天的頂尖主廚要教大家
如何搶銀行，
如何搶銀行，
00:16
and it's clear that the general public needs guidance,
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很顯然一般民眾需要一些指導，
00:20
because the average bank robbery nets
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因為銀行搶案
00:23
only 7,500 dollars.
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平均只搶到美金 7,500 元。
00:26
Rank amateurs who know nothing
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這完全是不懂得如何做假帳
00:28
about how to cook the books.
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業餘等級的水準。
00:30
The folks who know, of course,
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當然，那些內行的人，
00:32
run our largest banks,
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都是大銀行的高層，
00:34
and in the last go-around,
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上一次他們一出手，
00:36
they cost us over 11 trillion dollars.
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我們就損失 11 兆美元。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks like.
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11 兆美元看起來像這樣 。
00:43
That's how many zeros?
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這個金額有幾個零？
00:45
And cost us over 10 million jobs as well.
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也讓我們損失超過 1000 萬個
工作機會。
工作機會。
00:48
So our task is to educate ourselves
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所以當務之急是自我教育，
00:51
so that we can understand
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以了解
00:52
why we have these recurrent,
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為何金融危機一再發生，
00:54
intensifying financial crises,
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而且變本加厲，
00:56
and how we can prevent them in the future.
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以及如何防範於未來。
01:00
And the answer to that is
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答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics of control fraud.
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我們必須杜絶大規模
管理詐欺的行為，
管理詐欺的行為，
01:06
Control fraud is what happens
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管理詐欺是指
01:08
when the people who control,
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管理者，
01:10
typically a CEO,
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尤其是執行長，
01:12
a seemingly legitimate entity,
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管理一個貌似合法的機構時，
01:14
use it as a weapon to defraud.
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把這個機構當成詐騙的武器。
01:17
And these are the weapons of mass destruction
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這是金融界裡
01:20
in the financial world.
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最具殺傷力的武器。
01:22
They also follow in finance a particular strategy,
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在金融界裡，
他們也採用一種特定的策略，
他們也採用一種特定的策略，
01:27
because the weapon of choice in finance
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因為他們在財務上所用的武器
01:30
is accounting,
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就是會計方法，
01:31
and there is a recipe for accounting
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以會計方法管理詐欺行為
01:35
control fraud, and how it occurs.
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及其發生有個秘訣，
01:37
And we discovered this recipe
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我們在很不尋常的情況下
01:39
in quite an odd way that I'll
come back to in a moment.
come back to in a moment.
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發現了這個秘訣，
我稍後再談。
我稍後再談。
01:42
First ingredient in the recipe: grow like crazy;
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第一個秘訣是：
瘋狂地擴張公司資本；
瘋狂地擴張公司資本；
01:46
second, by making or buying really crappy loans,
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第二個秘訣是：
放出或購買高風險貸款，
放出或購買高風險貸款，
01:51
but loans that are made at a very high interest rate
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這種貸款的利率
01:54
or yield;
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或收益非常高；
01:56
three, while employing extreme leverage --
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第三個秘訣是：利用高度財務槓桿
01:58
that just means a lot of debt --
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這意味著對資產而言
01:59
compared to your equity;
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有著很大比率的負債；
02:01
and four, while providing only trivial loss reserves
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第四個秘訣是：提供極少的準備金
02:05
against the inevitable losses.
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去因應呆帳損失。
02:07
If you follow those four simple steps,
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如果你遵循這四個簡單的步驟，
02:11
and any bank can follow them,
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任何銀行都做得到，
02:13
then you are mathematically guaranteed
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保證一定會發生
02:15
to have three things occur.
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以下三種情況，
02:18
The first thing is
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第一是：
02:19
you will report record bank profits --
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銀行有很高的帳面利潤
02:23
not just high, record.
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不只是高，而是史無前例地高。
02:25
Two, the CEO will immediately
be made incredibly wealthy
be made incredibly wealthy
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第二：以目前管理階層的薪資結構，
02:30
by modern executive compensation.
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執行長將一夕致富。
02:33
And three, farther down the road,
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第三：長久以來，
02:36
the bank will suffer catastrophic losses
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銀行將蒙受巨大的損失
02:39
and will fail unless it is bailed out.
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除非獲得金援，不然就會倒閉。
02:42
And that's a hint as to how
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了解事情的來龍去脈後，
02:46
we discovered this recipe,
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我們才發現了這個秘訣，
02:48
because we discovered it
through an autopsy process.
through an autopsy process.
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這是經過我們抽絲剝繭分析出的。
02:52
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,
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1984 年貸款危機期間，
02:57
we looked at every single failure,
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我們研究每一個破產案例，
02:59
and we looked for common characteristics,
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尋找其中的共同點，
03:02
and we discovered this recipe was common
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我們發現這個秘訣
普遍存在於每一個詐欺案例中。
03:06
to each of these frauds.
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03:08
In other words, a coroner could find these things
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換句話說，
稽查員能夠查到這些事項
稽查員能夠查到這些事項
03:11
because this is a fatal recipe
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因為這致命秘訣
03:14
that will destroy the banks
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不但摧毀銀行
03:16
as well as the economy.
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也會摧毀經濟。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely
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結果它正是
03:21
what could have stopped this crisis,
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可以阻止這類危機的方法，
03:23
the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars
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這危機讓我們損失 11 兆美元，
03:26
just in the household sector,
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這只是住房領域（房貸部門）而已，
03:28
that cost us 10 million jobs,
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也讓我們失去 1000 萬個
工作機會，
工作機會，
03:30
was the easiest financial crisis by far
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這是目前為止最輕而易舉
03:33
to have avoided completely
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完全解決金融危機，
03:36
if we had simply learned the lessons
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只要我們從大規模管理詐欺中
03:38
of epidemics of control fraud,
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記取教訓，
03:40
particularly using this recipe.
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善加運用這個秘訣。
03:43
So let's go to this crisis,
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接下來我們開始討論這類危機，
03:45
and the two huge epidemics
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二種大規模貸款詐欺
03:47
of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis --
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導致發生危機的來源是：
03:51
appraisal fraud and liar's loans --
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估價詐欺和欺騙性貸款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
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我們將發現：
03:55
in looking at both of these is
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第一：對於這些詐欺行為
03:58
we got warnings that were incredibly early
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在相當早之前
04:01
about these frauds.
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就會獲得警訊。
04:03
We got warnings that we could
have taken advantage of easily,
have taken advantage of easily,
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第二：藉由這些警訊
我們可以輕易採取預防措施，
我們可以輕易採取預防措施，
04:07
because back in the savings and loan debacle,
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早在儲貨危機發生時，
04:09
we had figured out how to respond
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我們就知道如何因應
04:12
and prevent these crises.
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以避免發生這些危機。
04:14
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
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第三：這些警訊相當明確。
04:17
They were obvious that what was going on
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清楚顯示
04:20
was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
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大規模的會計管理詐欺行為
正在擴大。
正在擴大。
04:25
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
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我們先來看估價詐欺。
04:27
This is simply where you inflate the value
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簡單地說，估價詐欺就是
04:29
of the home that is being pledged
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誇大用來擔保貸款
04:32
as security for the loan.
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的房屋價值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
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在 2000 年，
04:38
that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,
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這是安隆破產的一年多前，
04:43
the honest appraisers got together a formal petition
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正直的估價師共同擬定一份請願書
04:47
begging the federal government to act,
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要求聯邦政府採取措施，
04:50
and the industry to act,
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及相關業者採取措施，
04:52
to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
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去阻止大規模的估價詐欺行為。
04:56
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,
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估價師解釋這類詐欺行為如何發生，
04:59
that banks were demanding that appraisers
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銀行要求估價師
05:03
inflate the appraisal,
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誇大其估價，
05:04
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,
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如果估價師拒絕配合，
05:08
they, the banks, would blacklist
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銀行就會將這些正直的估價師
05:12
honest appraisers
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列入黑名單。
05:14
and refuse to use them.
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不再僱用他們。
05:16
Now, we've seen this before
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在儲貸危機期間
05:19
in the savings and loan debacle,
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我們已經看過這種情形，
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud
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我們知道這種詐欺行為
05:22
can only originate from the lenders,
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只可能來自貸方，
05:25
and that no honest lender would ever inflate
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不誠實的貸方
05:28
the appraisal,
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想要為估價灌水，
05:29
because it's the great protection against loss.
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因為這是防止損失的最好方法。
05:32
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
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所以，這個預警訊號
早在 2000 年就出現，
早在 2000 年就出現，
05:36
It was something we'd seen before,
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這是我們之前看過，
05:38
and it was completely unambiguous.
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且是相當明確的警訊。
05:40
This was an epidemic of accounting control fraud
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這些大規模會計管理詐欺行為
05:44
led by the banks.
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是由銀行所主導的。
05:45
What about liar's loans?
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接下來，什麼是詐欺貸款呢？
05:47
Well, that warning actually comes earlier.
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實際上，這個警訊出現的更早。
05:51
The savings and loan debacle is basically
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儲貨危機基本上是發生於
05:54
the early 1980s through 1993,
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1980 年代的早期
一直到 1993 年，
一直到 1993 年，
05:57
and in the midst of fighting that wave
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在打擊會計管理詐欺
06:00
of accounting control fraud,
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的行動中，
06:02
in 1990, we found that a second front
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在 1990 年，我們發現
出現第二波的詐欺行為。
06:07
of fraud was being started.
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06:09
And like all good financial frauds in America,
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如同美國所有經過精心策畫
的金融詐欺，
的金融詐欺，
06:11
it began in Orange County, California.
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起源於加州橘縣，
06:15
And we happened to be the regional regulators for it.
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我們恰巧是當地的監管單位
06:18
And our examiners said,
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我們的稽查人員說，
06:20
they are making loans without even checking
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銀行根本沒有查核
06:23
what the borrower's income is.
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借款人的收入情況就放款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive losses,
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真是太離譜了，
必定會導致巨大的損失，
必定會導致巨大的損失，
06:30
and it only makes sense for entities engaged
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這種情況只有金融機構
06:34
in these accounting control frauds.
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參與會計管理詐欺。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely right,
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我們對稽核人員說，你們說的對，
06:38
and we drove those liar's loans
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於 1990 及 1991 年
06:41
out of the industry in 1990 and 1991,
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我們將詐欺借款逐出金融業，
06:46
but we could only deal with the industry
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但是，我們只能處理
06:48
we had jurisdiction over,
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權限範圍內的業務，
06:50
which was savings and loans,
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也就是儲蓄和貸款業務，
06:52
and so the biggest and the baddest of the frauds,
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其中最大、最惡劣的銀行－
06:55
Long Beach Savings, voluntarily gave up
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長灘儲貸銀行，主動放棄此業務，
06:58
its federal savings and loan charter,
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主動放棄聯邦政府頒發的
儲蓄和借貸執照，
儲蓄和借貸執照，
07:01
gave up federal deposit insurance,
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放棄聯邦銀行的存款保險，
07:03
converted to become a mortgage bank
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變成一家抵押銀行，
07:06
for the sole purpose of escaping our jurisdiction,
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只為了逃避我們的監管，
07:09
and changed its name to Ameriquest,
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並把公司名稱改為 Ameriquest，
07:11
and became the most notorious
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是早期欺騙性借貸詐欺行為中
07:13
of the liar's loans frauds early on,
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最為惡名昭彰的銀行。
07:17
and to add to that,
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此外，
07:18
they deliberately predated upon minorities.
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他們還故意欺騙少數民族。
07:23
So we knew again about this crisis.
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所以我們了解這類詐欺性貸款危機。
07:27
We'd seen it before. We'd stopped it before.
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我們之前看過，也阻止過。
07:31
We had incredibly early warnings of it,
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在相當早之前就接獲警訊，
07:34
and it was absolutely unambiguous
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此警訊相當明確
07:36
that no honest lender would
make loans in this fashion.
make loans in this fashion.
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正直的貸方絶不會做這種放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction
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我們看一下銀行業，
07:43
of the industry and the regulators
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監管機關，
07:46
and the prosecutors to these clear
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檢調單位的反應
07:48
early warnings that could have prevented the crisis.
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就能夠及早獲得警訊，
預防危機的發生。
預防危機的發生。
07:53
Start with the industry.
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先從金融業開始，
07:55
The industry responded between 2003 and 2006
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從 2003 年到 2006 年，
08:01
by increasing liar's loans
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金融業的詐騙性貸款業務
08:04
by over 500 percent.
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增加超過 500%。
08:09
These were the loans
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這些貸款
08:11
that hyperinflated the bubble
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過度膨漲，泡沬化，
08:12
and produced the economic crisis.
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造成經濟危機。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans called subprime
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截至 2006 年，半數所謂的次級貸款
08:21
were also liar's loans.
172
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2026
就是詐欺性貸款。
08:23
They're not mutually exclusive, it's just that together,
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這兩者非獨立運作，而是互相影響，
08:26
they're the most toxic combination
174
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2440
形成你所能想像的
08:29
you can possibly imagine.
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497233
1860
致命組合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans
176
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3754
於 2006 年，有 40% 的貸款，
08:34
made that year, all the home loans made that year,
177
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2617
所申請的房屋貸款
08:37
were liar's loans,
178
505464
2722
是屬於詐欺性貸款，
08:40
40 percent.
179
508186
1311
高達 40%！
08:41
And this is despite a warning
180
509497
2704
儘管銀行業的
08:44
from the industry's own antifraud experts
181
512201
3423
反詐欺專家警告
08:47
that said that these loans were an open invitation
182
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3155
這些詐欺性貸款
08:50
to fraudsters,
183
518779
1960
有如引狼入室，
08:52
and that they had a fraud incidence
184
520739
1742
詐騙率
08:54
of 90 percent,
185
522481
2488
達到 90%，
08:56
nine zero.
186
524969
2692
是九十喔。
08:59
In response to that, the industry
187
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金融業的反應是，
09:02
first started calling these loans liar's loans,
188
530728
5048
首先：一開始稱這種貸款
為詐欺性貸款，
為詐欺性貸款，
09:07
which lacks a certain subtlety,
189
535776
3569
這個稱呼不是很好，
09:11
and second, massively increased them,
190
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3050
第二是：大幅地增加這種貸款，
09:14
and no government regulator ever
191
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3261
政府監管機關沒有
09:17
required or encouraged any lender
192
545656
3690
要求或鼓勵貸方
09:21
to make a liar's loan
193
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1296
去做詐騙性貸款
09:22
or anyone to purchase a liar's loan,
194
550642
2687
或買入詐騙性貸款，
09:25
and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.
195
553329
3170
當然包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came from the lenders
196
556499
2122
這詐欺性貸款的手法
09:30
because of the fraud recipe.
197
558621
3169
歸咎於貸方的問題。
09:33
What happened to appraisal fraud?
198
561790
2434
估價詐欺又是怎麼一回事呢？
09:36
It expanded remarkably as well.
199
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3136
同樣也是非常快速地膨漲起來。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,
200
567360
4397
2007 年，
有一份估價師的調查報告，
有一份估價師的調查報告，
09:43
90 percent of appraisers reported
201
571757
2701
90% 的估價師表示，
09:46
that they had been subject to coercion
202
574458
2440
貸方曾向他們施壓
09:48
from the lenders trying to get them
203
576898
2492
要求將估價
09:51
to inflate an appraisal.
204
579390
1570
灌水。
09:52
In other words, both forms of fraud
205
580960
2990
換句話說，這兩種型態的詐欺，
09:55
became absolutely endemic and normal,
206
583950
3774
已變成通病和常態，
09:59
and this is what drove the bubble.
207
587724
2229
這是造成經濟泡沫化的原因。
10:01
What happened in the governmental sector?
208
589953
2192
政府單位又是怎麼一回事？
10:04
Well, the government, as I told you,
209
592145
2604
至於政府，就如我所說的，
10:06
when we were the savings and loan regulators,
210
594749
2716
我們在執行儲貸監管業務時，
10:09
we could only deal with our industry,
211
597465
2678
只能處理我們負責的業務，
10:12
and if people gave up their
federal deposit insurance,
federal deposit insurance,
212
600143
2438
如果貸方放棄聯邦政府存款保險
10:14
we couldn't do anything to them.
213
602581
2263
我們也束手無策。
10:16
Congress, it may strike you as impossible,
214
604844
3329
至於國會議員，或許你不相信，
10:20
but actually did something intelligent in 1994,
215
608173
3248
事實上，他們在 1994 年
做了一點聰明事，
做了一點聰明事，
10:23
and passed the Home Ownership
and Equity Protection Act
and Equity Protection Act
216
611421
3553
通過了「房屋所有權和權益保護法」
10:26
that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,
217
614974
3253
賦予美國聯邦儲備局（美聯儲），
只限美聯儲
只限美聯儲
10:30
the explicit, statutory authority to ban liar's loans
218
618227
4027
明確的法定權力，禁止貸款人的
10:34
by every lender,
219
622254
2106
詐欺貸款業務，
10:36
whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.
220
624360
2998
無論貸款人是否擁有聯邦存款保險，
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,
221
627358
3535
當柏南奇和葛林斯潘
10:42
as chairs of the Fed, do
222
630893
1967
任職美聯儲主席時，
是採取何種措施
是採取何種措施
10:44
when they got these warnings
223
632860
1906
以回應以下的警訊：
10:46
that these were massively fraudulent loans
224
634766
3010
大規模的詐欺貸款
10:49
and that they were being sold
to the secondary market?
to the secondary market?
225
637776
3354
以及把這些貸款賣給次級市場？
10:53
Remember, there's no fraud exorcist.
226
641130
2220
請記住，沒有人可以讓這些詐欺消失。
10:55
Once it starts out a fraudulent loan,
227
643350
2048
一旦發生詐欺貸款，
10:57
it can only be sold to the secondary market
228
645398
2312
只能透過更多的詐欺貸款
10:59
through more frauds,
229
647710
1196
轉賣給次級市場，
11:00
lying about the reps and warrantees,
230
648906
2548
捏造財務報告和保證條款，
11:03
and then those people are going to produce
231
651454
1608
然後再包裝成
11:05
mortgage-backed securities
232
653062
1428
不動產抵押貸款證券
11:06
and exotic derivatives
233
654490
1268
和衍生性金融商品
11:07
which are also going to be supposedly backed
234
655758
3222
而為這些產品擔保的是
11:10
by those fraudulent loans.
235
658980
1723
詐欺貸款。
11:12
So the fraud is going to progress
236
660703
1541
所以詐欺貸款
11:14
through the entire system,
237
662244
1464
貫穿整個金融借貸系統，
11:15
hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.
238
663708
3253
惡性通貨膨脹造成泡沬化，
造成災難。
造成災難。
11:18
And remember, we had experience with this.
239
666961
3301
請記得，這類災難我們經歷過，
11:22
We had seen significant losses,
240
670262
2288
我們遭受巨大的損失，
11:24
and we had experience of competent regulators
241
672550
3446
監管機關也阻止
11:27
in stopping it.
242
675996
1490
這類危機的發生。
11:29
Greenspan and Bernanke refused
243
677486
2896
葛林斯潘和柏克南拒絕
11:32
to use the authority under the statute
244
680382
2411
法律賦予他們的權力
11:34
to stop liar's loans.
245
682793
2317
去阻止詐欺貸款。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma.
246
685110
2564
首先，這是完全是其個人武斷的看法。
11:39
They're just horrifically opposed
247
687674
2851
他們只竭盡所能地
11:42
to anything regulatory.
248
690525
1819
反對任何監管措施。
11:44
But it is also the international competition in laxity,
249
692344
4716
國際之間的寬鬆政策競爭，
11:49
the race to the bottom
250
697060
1284
競相降低貨款的門檻，
11:50
between the United States and the United Kingdom,
251
698344
4035
尤其是美國和英國，
11:54
the city of London, in particular,
252
702379
1601
特別是倫敦，
11:55
and the city of London won that race to the bottom,
253
703980
2970
倫敦贏得最低貸款門檻的封號，
11:58
but it meant that all regulation in the West
254
706950
3852
這表示西方國家的監管制度，
12:02
was completely degraded
255
710802
2004
在這場誰是最鬆散監管的
12:04
in this stupid competition to be
256
712806
2084
愚蠢競賽中，
12:06
who could have the weakest regulation.
257
714890
2072
已徹底退化。
12:08
So that was the regulatory response.
258
716962
2050
這是監管機關的反應。
12:11
What about the response of the prosecutors
259
719012
3657
檢調單位對金融危機發生後
12:14
after the crisis,
260
722669
1735
的反應又是什麼呢？
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars in losses,
261
724404
4198
在 11 兆美金的損失之後，
12:20
after 10 million jobs lost,
262
728602
2040
喪失 1000 萬個工作之後，
12:22
a crisis in which the losses and the frauds
263
730642
3284
在這場損失和詐欺的規模，
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
733926
3455
比儲貸危機
12:29
than the savings and loan debacle?
265
737381
2304
還要大上 70 倍之後呢？
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan debacle,
266
739685
1891
好，在儲貸危機當中，
12:33
our agency that regulated savings and loans, OTS,
267
741576
3970
負責監管儲貸的機關，
也就是 OTS（儲蓄管理局），
也就是 OTS（儲蓄管理局），
12:37
made over 30,000 criminal referrals,
268
745546
4084
提出 30,000 個刑事訴訟，
12:41
produced over 1,000 felony convictions
269
749630
2636
超過 1,000 人被判以重罪，
12:44
just in cases designated as major,
270
752266
2674
這只是重大刑案部分，
12:46
and that understates the degree of prioritization,
271
754940
3138
嚴重的問題尚未浮上枱面，
12:50
because we worked with the FBI
272
758078
1796
因為我們與聯邦調查局 (FBI) 併肩合作
12:51
to create the list of the top 100 fraud schemes,
273
759874
4264
列出國內最惡劣的
12:56
the absolute worst of the worst, nationwide.
274
764138
3264
前 100 個詐欺名單。
12:59
Roughly 300 savings and loans involved,
275
767402
2784
大約有 300 件儲貸違法，
13:02
roughly 600 senior officials.
276
770186
3314
600 名高階主管涉案。
13:05
Virtually all of them were prosecuted.
277
773500
2340
他們幾乎全部被起訴。
13:07
We had a 90 percent conviction rate.
278
775840
2831
90% 被判有罪。
13:10
It's the greatest success against
279
778671
1830
這是有史以來，對抗白領犯罪
13:12
elite white collar criminals ever,
280
780501
2602
最大的勝利，
13:15
and it was because of this understanding
281
783103
2236
那是因為我們了解這類
13:17
of control fraud
282
785339
1335
詐欺的手法，
13:18
and the accounting control fraud mechanism.
283
786674
2511
以及會計管理詐欺機制。
13:21
Flash forward to the current crisis.
284
789185
3172
回到當前的金融危機。
13:24
The same agency, Office of Thrift Supervision,
285
792357
2573
同一個機構，儲蓄管理局，
13:26
which was supposed to regulate
286
794930
1630
應該要去監管
13:28
many of the largest makers of liar's loans
287
796560
2097
國內許多
13:30
in the country,
288
798657
1107
詐欺貸款的銀行，
13:31
has made, even today -- it no longer exists,
289
799764
4694
直至今天，雖然該局已經不存在了，
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
804458
1808
但直到一年前，
13:38
it had made zero criminal referrals.
291
806266
4844
刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:43
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,
292
811110
1696
應該要去監管國內各大銀行
13:44
which is supposed to regulate
the largest national banks,
the largest national banks,
293
812806
2516
的金融管理局，
13:47
has made zero criminal referrals.
294
815322
2551
提出的刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:49
The Fed appears to have made
295
817873
1626
美聯儲提出的
13:51
zero criminal referrals.
296
819499
1995
刑事訴訟案件也是掛零。
13:53
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
297
821494
1955
聯邦存款保險公司狡滑地
13:55
is smart enough to refuse to answer the question.
298
823449
4534
迴避了這個問題。
13:59
Without any guidance from the regulators,
299
827983
5535
沒有任何監管機關的協助，
14:05
there's no expertise in the FBI
300
833518
2882
聯邦調查局沒有相關專業知識，
14:08
to investigate complex frauds.
301
836400
2472
來調查如此複雜的詐欺案件。
14:10
It isn't simply that they've had
302
838872
1932
原因不是單純地
14:12
to reinvent the wheel
303
840804
1822
必須重新擬定
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions;
304
842626
1918
提出訴訟的策略；
14:16
they've forgotten that the wheel exists,
305
844544
4756
他們是忘了訴訟這件事，
14:21
and therefore, we have zero prosecutions,
306
849300
4098
所以造成這場危機的
14:25
and of course, zero convictions,
307
853398
2602
頂尖銀行詐欺高手，
14:28
of any of the elite bank frauds,
308
856000
2790
沒有人被起訴，
14:30
the Wall Street types,
309
858790
1537
華爾街的詐欺高手，
14:32
that drove this crisis.
310
860327
3132
當然也沒有人被定罪，
14:35
With no expertise coming from the regulators,
311
863459
2237
在監管機關沒有提供專業的協助下，
14:37
the FBI formed what it calls a partnership
312
865696
3091
聯邦調查局在 2007 年
14:40
with the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2007.
313
868787
4323
與抵押貸款協會合作。
14:45
The Mortgage Bankers Association
314
873110
1833
抵押貸款協會
14:46
is the trade association of the perps.
315
874943
3751
正是幹這些壞事的同業公會。
14:50
And the Mortgage Bankers Association
316
878694
2416
抵押貸款協會
14:53
set out, it had the audacity and the success
317
881110
3790
開始行動後，膽大妄為
並成功地欺瞞聯邦調查局。
14:56
to con the FBI.
318
884900
1678
14:58
It had created a supposed definition
319
886578
3077
為抵押貸款詐欺
下了一個似是而非的定義，
下了一個似是而非的定義，
15:01
of mortgage fraud, in which, guess what,
320
889655
2875
你知道他們怎麼說嗎，
15:04
its members are always the victim
321
892530
1862
協會的成員是受害者，
15:06
and never the perpetrators.
322
894392
2017
沒有詐欺的行為。
15:08
And the FBI has bought this hook, line, sinker,
323
896409
4514
聯邦調查局不疑有他，
15:12
rod, reel and the boat they rode out in.
324
900923
4081
抵押貸款協會闖關成功。
15:17
And so the FBI,
325
905004
3056
至於聯邦調查局，
15:20
under the leadership of an attorney general
326
908060
3098
在非裔美籍的
15:23
who is African-American
327
911158
1174
司法部長，
15:24
and a president of the United
States who is African-American,
States who is African-American,
328
912332
2462
及非裔美籍總統的領導下，
15:26
have adopted the Tea Party definition of the crisis,
329
914794
3500
採信茶黨對金融危機的說詞，
15:30
in which it is the first virgin crisis in history,
330
918294
3482
這是歷史上第一宗
15:33
conceived without sin in the executive ranks.
331
921776
3678
管理高層沒被定罪的
怪異金融危機事件。
怪異金融危機事件。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever hairdressers
332
925454
3396
問題在那些聰明狡滑的小角色，
15:40
who were able to defraud the poor, pitiful banks,
333
928850
3218
他們能夠欺騙毫無金融經驗，
15:44
who lack any financial sophistication.
334
932068
2384
可憐的銀行業者，
15:46
It is the silliest story you can conceive of,
335
934452
3358
這是你能想像的最愚蠢說法，
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute the hairdressers,
336
937810
3901
所以他們起訴那些小角色，
15:53
and they leave the banksters alone entirely.
337
941711
4179
銀行高層毫髮未傷。
15:57
And so, while lions are roaming the campsite,
338
945890
2910
因此，那些詐欺者仍然逍遙法外，
16:00
the FBI is chasing mice.
339
948800
3210
聯邦調查局只是追逐小老鼠，
而不去抓大獅子。
而不去抓大獅子。
16:04
What do we need to do?
340
952010
1430
我們該怎麼做？
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
341
953440
2504
面對這一切，我們該做些什麼？
16:07
We need to change the perverse incentive structures
342
955944
3819
我們必須改變不正當的激勵機制，
16:11
that produce these recurrent epidemics
343
959763
2996
正是因為這種機制
讓大規模會計管理詐欺
的事件一再發生，
的事件一再發生，
16:14
of accounting control fraud
344
962759
1329
16:16
that are driving our crises.
345
964088
2014
因而造成財務危機。
16:18
So we have to first get rid
346
966102
2888
所以首先必需排除
16:20
of the systemically dangerous institutions.
347
968990
2488
具有系統危險性的金融機構。
16:23
These are the so-called too-big-to-fail institutions.
348
971478
3485
是所謂的「大到不能倒」的金融機構，
16:26
We need to shrink them to the point,
349
974963
2142
在未來的 5 年當中，
16:29
within the next five years,
350
977105
1595
我們必須縮小它們的規模，
16:30
that they no longer pose a systemic risk.
351
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2735
使它們不再有系統性風險。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking time bombs
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現在它們是定時炸彈，
16:35
that will cause a global crisis
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一旦其中一家銀行倒閉，
16:38
as soon as the next one fails --
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將引發全球性金融危機。
16:41
not if, when.
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不是會不會倒，
而是何時會倒的問題。
而是何時會倒的問題。
16:43
Second thing we need to do is completely reform
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第二：必須徹底改革
16:45
modern executive and professional compensation,
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當今高階管理人員的酬薪制度，
16:48
which is what they use to suborn the appraisers.
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他們以高薪來收買估價師。
16:53
Remember, they were pressuring the appraisers
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請記住，他們透過酬薪制度
16:55
through the compensation system,
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對估價師施壓，
16:56
trying to produce what we call a Gresham's dynamic,
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試圖產生所謂的
格萊欣 (Gresham) 效應，
格萊欣 (Gresham) 效應，
16:59
in which bad ethics drives good ethics
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在市場上
17:02
out of the marketplace.
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以劣幣趨逐良幣。
17:03
And they largely succeeded,
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他們獲得大勝利，
17:05
which is how the fraud became endemic.
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這是為何詐欺行為
像流行病般蔓延開來，
像流行病般蔓延開來，
17:08
And the third thing that we need to do
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第三件們必需做的事是：
17:11
is deal with what we call the three D's:
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去處理我們所謂的 3D：
17:13
deregulation, desupervision,
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放寬管制 (Deregulation)，
放寬監督 (Desupervision)，
放寬監督 (Desupervision)，
17:16
and the de facto decriminalization.
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事實上的合法化
(De Facto Decriminalization )。
(De Facto Decriminalization )。
17:20
Because we can make
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我們能改革以上三件事，
17:22
all three of these changes, and if we do so,
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如果我們這麼做，
17:26
we can dramatically reduce
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就能夠大幅減少
17:28
how often we have a crisis
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危機發生的頻率
17:31
and how severe those crises are.
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以及危機發生後的危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply critical to our economy.
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這不僅對經濟而言相當重要。
17:37
You can see what these crises do to inequality
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你可以看出危機造成貧富不均
17:41
and what they do to our democracy.
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以及對民主制度的影響。
17:43
They have produced crony capitalism,
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它造成美國式的
17:46
American-style,
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親信資本主義，
17:47
in which the largest financial institutions
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其中最大型的金融機構
17:50
are the leading financial donors of both parties,
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是兩黨的主要金主，
17:54
and that's the reason why
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這就是為何
17:56
even after this crisis,
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比儲貸危機還嚴重 70 倍
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan crisis,
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的危機發生後，
18:05
we have no meaningful reforms
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除了取締詐欺性貸款外，
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
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以上我提到的 3 個層面
18:11
other than banning liar's loans,
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依然沒有實際上的改革。
18:13
which is good,
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這是好事，
18:14
but that's just one form of ammunition
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詐欺性貸款只是
18:17
for this fraud weapon.
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其中一種武器。
18:18
There are many forms of ammunition they can use.
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他們可使用的武器相當多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn
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這就是為何我們需要學習
18:24
what the bankers have learned:
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銀行家們的手法：
18:26
the recipe for the best way to rob a bank,
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搶銀行的最佳秘訣，
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe,
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這樣我們才能遏止這種做法，
18:32
because our legislators,
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因為我們的立法者，
18:34
who are dependent on political contributions,
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仰賴政治獻金，
18:37
will not do it on their own.
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他們不會主動採取行動。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位。
18:41
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
William Black - AcademicWilliam Black is a professor of economics and law at University of Missouri, Kansas City.
Why you should listen
William Black is an associate professor of economics and law. He was the executive director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. He previously taught at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and at Santa Clara University, where he was also the distinguished scholar in residence for insurance law and a visiting scholar at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. Black was litigation director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, deputy director of the FSLIC, SVP and general counsel of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco, and senior deputy chief counsel, Office of Thrift Supervision. He was deputy director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement.
His 2005 book The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One has been called “a classic.” Professor Black recently helped the World Bank develop anti-corruption initiatives and served as an expert for OFHEO in its enforcement action against Fannie Mae’s former senior management.
He teaches white-collar crime, public finance, antitrust, law and economics, and Latin American development.
William Black | Speaker | TED.com