TED2014
Andrew Connolly: What's the next window into our universe?
安德鲁·康诺利: 宇宙之窗：下一扇在哪儿
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大数据无处不在——甚于天空。天文学家安德鲁·康诺利向我们展示了，科学家是如何大规模收集天文数据，并记录宇宙不断变化的。想知道科学家是如何捕捉浩淼夜空的吗？你首先得有一台巨型望远镜....
Andrew Connolly - Astronomer
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So in 1781, an English composer,
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1781年，一位名叫威廉·赫歇尔的
00:16
technologist and astronomer called William Herschel
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英国作曲家、科学家、 天文学家，
00:19
noticed an object on the sky that
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发现浩渺宇宙一微物，
00:21
didn't quite move the way the rest of the stars did.
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并不像其它星辰，那般移动。
00:24
And Herschel's recognition
that something was different,
that something was different,
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他意识到这
00:27
that something wasn't quite right,
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与已知不符。
00:29
was the discovery of a planet,
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藉由此，他发现了一颗行星——
00:31
the planet Uranus,
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天王星。
00:33
a name that has entertained
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它的名字给
00:34
countless generations of children,
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数代儿童带来快乐，
00:37
but a planet that overnight
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而这颗行星的发现，一夜间
00:40
doubled the size of our known solar system.
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将太阳系的已知面积，扩大了两倍。
00:42
Just last month, NASA announced the discovery
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就在上个月，美国国家航天局宣布：
00:44
of 517 new planets
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在附近的恒星轨道上，
00:46
in orbit around nearby stars,
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发现了五百一十七颗新行星。
00:48
almost doubling overnight the number of planets
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这几乎于一夜之间，将我们星系，已知
00:51
we know about within our galaxy.
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行星的数量，翻了一倍。
00:53
So astronomy is constantly being transformed by this
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这种数据收集的能力，
00:56
capacity to collect data,
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正不断改变着天文学。
00:58
and with data almost doubling every year,
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随着数据逐年递增，
01:01
within the next two decades, me may even
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我们甚至开始设想，
在接下来的二十年内
在接下来的二十年内
01:02
reach the point for the first time in history
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我们可能有史以来第一次，
01:05
where we've discovered the majority of the galaxies
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探索到宇宙的
01:08
within the universe.
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绝大部分星系。
01:09
But as we enter this era of big data,
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但当我们迈入，这个大数据时代，
01:12
what we're beginning to find is there's a difference
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忽而惊觉：
01:14
between more data being just better
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更多的数据，可以带来好处，
01:17
and more data being different,
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也可能带来不同。
01:19
capable of changing the questions we want to ask,
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并能提出新的问题。
01:22
and this difference is not about
how much data we collect,
how much data we collect,
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关键并不在于，我们收集了多少数据。
01:25
it's whether those data open new windows
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而是，这些数据是否为我们认识宇宙，
01:27
into our universe,
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打开了一扇新的窗户，
01:28
whether they change the way we view the sky.
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又是否能，改变我们认识天空的方式。
01:31
So what is the next window into our universe?
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那么，下一扇宇宙之窗将会是什么？
01:34
What is the next chapter for astronomy?
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天文学的下一篇章将会是什么？
01:37
Well, I'm going to show you some
of the tools and the technologies
of the tools and the technologies
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在此，我将向你们展示，
01:40
that we're going to develop over the next decade,
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今后十年，我们将开发的一些新工具及新技术。
01:42
and how these technologies,
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并向你们展示，这些技术和
01:44
together with the smart use of data,
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数据的灵巧运用
01:46
may once again transform astronomy
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将如何再次改变天文学，
01:49
by opening up a window into our universe,
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并开启一扇认识宇宙的新窗户——
01:51
the window of time.
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时间之窗。
01:53
Why time? Well, time is about origins,
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为什么是时间？嗯，时间关乎起源，
01:55
and it's about evolution.
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进化。
01:57
The origins of our solar system,
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我们太阳系的起源于何？
01:58
how our solar system came into being,
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它是如何出现的？
02:01
is it unusual or special in any way?
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它有何特殊性，又有何与众不同之处？
02:04
About the evolution of our universe.
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而我们的宇宙呢？
02:06
Why our universe is continuing to expand,
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为什么我们的宇宙还在不停地膨胀？
02:09
and what is this mysterious dark energy
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促使宇宙膨胀的那个神秘的暗能量，
02:11
that drives that expansion?
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究竟是什么？
02:14
But first, I want to show you how technology
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首先，我想向你们展示一下科技，
02:16
is going to change the way we view the sky.
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将如何改变我们观察天空的方式。
02:19
So imagine if you were sitting
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想象一下，
02:21
in the mountains of northern Chile
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你坐在智利北部的山上，
02:23
looking out to the west
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拂晓时分，
02:24
towards the Pacific Ocean
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你向西凝望，
02:26
a few hours before sunrise.
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细观太平洋。
02:29
This is the view of the night sky that you would see,
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你将会看到，这样
02:32
and it's a beautiful view,
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壮观的夜空：
02:34
with the Milky Way just peeking out over the horizon.
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银河刚刚露出地平线，
02:37
but it's also a static view,
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静默安然。
02:39
and in many ways, this is the
way we think of our universe:
way we think of our universe:
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而这，就是我们对宇宙的印象：
02:42
eternal and unchanging.
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永恒且不变的。
02:44
But the universe is anything but static.
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但实际上，宇宙并不静止。
02:46
It constantly changes on timescales of seconds
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它在不停地变化。小至按秒，
大至十亿年。
02:48
to billions of years.
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02:50
Galaxies merge, they collide
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星系融合，他们以
02:52
at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour.
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每小时几十万英里的速度相互碰撞，
02:55
Stars are born, they die,
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新的恒星诞生、消亡。
02:57
they explode in these extravagant displays.
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它们以极其华丽的方式爆炸。
03:00
In fact, if we could go back
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实际上，如果我们回首
03:01
to our tranquil skies above Chile,
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凝望，智利宁静的天空，
03:04
and we allow time to move forward
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并让时间前进，
03:06
to see how the sky might change over the next year,
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观测天空接下来一年的变化。
03:11
the pulsations that you see
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你们看到的脉动形状，
03:13
are supernovae, the final remnants of a dying star
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将是超新星－濒临消亡的恒星们，爆炸时最后遗留的部分－
03:17
exploding, brightening and then fading from view,
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它们发出光亮，然后渐渐褪去。
03:21
each one of these supernovae
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每一颗超新星的亮度，
03:23
five billion times the brightness of our sun,
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都是太阳的五十亿倍。
03:26
so we can see them to great distances
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所以我们可以在很远的地方看到它们
03:28
but only for a short amount of time.
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昙花一现。
03:31
Ten supernova per second explode somewhere
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在宇宙中，每一秒，
03:33
in our universe.
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都会有十颗超新星爆炸。
03:35
If we could hear it,
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如果我们能够听到的话，
03:36
it would be popping like a bag of popcorn.
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这就像在爆一袋爆米花一样。
03:40
Now, if we fade out the supernovae,
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现在，如果我们忽略超新星的画面，
03:43
it's not just brightness that changes.
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变化的可不仅仅是亮度，
03:46
Our sky is in constant motion.
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连我们的天空也在持续变化。
03:49
This swarm of objects you
see streaming across the sky
see streaming across the sky
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流淌过天空的这一串物什，
03:52
are asteroids as they orbit our sun,
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是围绕太阳运转的小行星，
03:54
and it's these changes and the motion
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是这些天体的变化和运行，
03:56
and it's the dynamics of the system
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以及，这一系统的动态变化，
03:59
that allow us to build our models for our universe,
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让我们能够建造宇宙的模型，
04:01
to predict its future and to explain its past.
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并用于预测宇宙的未来、同时解释其过去。
04:05
But the telescopes we've used over the last decade
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但是，过去十年来，我们所用的望远镜，
04:08
are not designed to capture the data at this scale.
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并非是设计以捕捉这一规模数据的。
04:12
The Hubble Space Telescope:
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哈勃太空望远镜在
04:14
for the last 25 years it's been producing
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过去二十五年里拍摄了
04:16
some of the most detailed views
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我们的宇宙里
04:18
of our distant universe,
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最细致的画面。
04:20
but if you tried to use the Hubble to create an image
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但如果你试图用哈勃望远镜来创作一张
04:22
of the sky, it would take 13 million individual images,
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天空的图像，这将需要一千三百万张的独立相片，
04:27
about 120 years to do this just once.
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并花上大约一百二十年的时间来完成。
04:30
So this is driving us to new technologies
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所以，这驱使我们研发新的技术，
04:33
and new telescopes,
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和新的望远镜，
04:35
telescopes that can go faint
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这是一种既有深度又有广度的望远镜，
04:36
to look at the distant universe
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它能以最快的速度，
04:38
but also telescopes that can go wide
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捕捉到
04:41
to capture the sky as rapidly as possible,
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尽为宽广的画面。
04:43
telescopes like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope,
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例如，大型综合巡天望远镜，
04:47
or the LSST,
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亦称为LSST，
04:49
possibly the most boring name ever
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是天文学历史上，
04:51
for one of the most fascinating experiments
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最伟大的实验之一。
04:53
in the history of astronomy,
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这个名字相当无趣，
04:55
in fact proof, if you should need it,
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事实证明，如果要取名字，
04:57
that you should never allow
a scientist or an engineer
a scientist or an engineer
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绝不能让一个科学家或工程师，
05:00
to name anything, not even your children.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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来给任何事物取名。你的小孩就更不要，
让他来啊（大笑）。
让他来啊（大笑）。
05:06
We're building the LSST.
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我们正在建造LSST,
05:07
We expect it to start taking data
by the end of this decade.
by the end of this decade.
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我们预计，在这个十年内，就可以用它来捕获数据。
05:11
I'm going to show you how we think
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好了，接下来，我将向各位展示，
05:12
it's going to transform
our views of the universe,
our views of the universe,
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LSST将如何改变我们观测宇宙的方式。
05:16
because one image from the LSST
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因为，LSST拍的一张照片，
05:18
is equivalent to 3,000 images
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相当于哈勃望远镜，
05:21
from the Hubble Space Telescope,
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拍摄的3000张图片。
05:23
each image three and a half degrees on the sky,
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每张图片相当于天空的3.5度
05:26
seven times the width of the full moon.
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是满月的7倍宽。
05:29
Well, how do you capture an image at this scale?
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恩，如何才能捕获如此规模的图像呢？
05:31
Well, you build the largest digital camera in history,
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其实，建造这一史上最大望远镜，的技术,
05:35
using the same technology you find
in the cameras in your cell phone
in the cameras in your cell phone
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与你的手机摄像头，或者在大街上
05:38
or in the digital cameras you
can buy in the High Street,
can buy in the High Street,
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可以买到的任何数码相机，所使用的技术一样。
05:42
but now at a scale that is five and a half feet across,
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但是，它的直径是5.5英尺，
05:45
about the size of a Volkswagen Beetle,
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相当于一辆大众甲壳虫的大小，
05:48
where one image is three billion pixels.
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一张图像达到30亿像素，
05:51
So if you wanted to look at an image
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所以，如果你想无损查看
05:52
in its full resolution, just a single LSST image,
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一张LSST图片
05:55
it would take about 1,500
high-definition TV screens.
high-definition TV screens.
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大约需要1500块高清电视屏幕。
06:00
And this camera will image the sky,
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而这一望远镜，不间断的扫描天空，
06:03
taking a new picture every 20 seconds,
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以每20秒一张的速度，
06:06
constantly scanning the sky
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环望宇宙。
06:08
so every three nights, we'll get a completely new view
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所以，每过三个夜晚，我们所拍到的智利上方
06:11
of the skies above Chile.
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的天空，都会是一幅全新的景象。
06:13
Over the mission lifetime of this telescope,
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依据这一望远镜的设计寿命，
06:16
it will detect 40 billion stars and galaxies,
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它将可以探测，400亿颗恒星和星系，
06:19
and that will be for the first time
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也将第一次，
06:21
we'll have detected more objects in our universe
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使我们探测到宇宙星体的
06:24
than people on the Earth.
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数量超过地球上人类数量。
06:26
Now, we can talk about this
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然后，我们讨论时，就可以用
06:28
in terms of terabytes and petabytes
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兆和千兆单位，
06:30
and billions of objects,
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以及十亿级个体单位了。
06:31
but a way to get a sense of the amount of data
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为了理解这一望远镜捕获数据
的数量级，
的数量级，
06:33
that will come off this camera
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我们可以这样想象：
06:35
is that it's like playing every TED Talk ever recorded
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这是，你一天24小时，每周7天，
06:40
simultaneously, 24 hours a day,
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连续10年，
06:43
seven days a week, for 10 years.
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同时播放，所有的TED演讲的总和。
06:46
And to process this data means
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而处理这一数据意味着，
06:48
searching through all of those talks
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在所有TED演讲中搜索，
06:50
for every new idea and every new concept,
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新点子和新概念，
06:52
looking at each part of the video
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查并看每个视频的每一部分
06:54
to see how one frame may have changed
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弄清楚每一贞是如何从上一贞
06:56
from the next.
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转换来的。
06:58
And this is changing the way that we do science,
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这将彻底改变我们的科研方式，
07:00
changing the way that we do astronomy,
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并改变我们研究天文学的方式。
07:02
to a place where software and algorithms
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那时，各种软件和算法，
07:05
have to mine through this data,
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将不得不用来挖掘这一数据，
07:07
where the software is as critical to the science
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而软件也变得对科学至关重要，
07:10
as the telescopes and the
cameras that we've built.
cameras that we've built.
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同我们建造的望远镜和照相机一样重要。
07:14
Now, thousands of discoveries
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那时，该项目将带来，
07:16
will come from this project,
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成千上万的新发现。
07:18
but I'm just going to tell you about two
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但是，我这里要介绍的，
07:20
of the ideas about origins and evolution
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是这一大数据对我们
07:22
that may be transformed by our access
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关于起源和进化的两个认识，
07:24
to data at this scale.
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将带来的变化。
07:27
In the last five years, NASA has discovered
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过去五年，美国国家航空和宇宙航行局，
07:29
over 1,000 planetary systems
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在附近的恒星周围，
07:32
around nearby stars,
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发现了超过1000个星球体系。
07:34
but the systems we're finding
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但我们发现的这些星系
07:36
aren't much like our own solar system,
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与我们的太阳系不太一样。
07:38
and one of the questions we face is
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而我们提出的一个问题就是，
07:40
is it just that we haven't been looking hard enough
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是我们探测水平有限呢，
07:42
or is there something special or unusual
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还是我们的太阳系就是一个，
07:44
about how our solar system formed?
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特殊和不同寻常的星系呢？
07:46
And if we want to answer that question,
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要解开这一疑问，
07:48
we have to know and understand
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我们需要知道，并理解
07:50
the history of our solar system in detail,
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我们的太阳系的详细历史。
07:53
and it's the details that are crucial.
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而细节将决定我们的成败。
07:55
So now, if we look back at the sky,
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那么，当我们望向
07:59
at our asteroids that were streaming across the sky,
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划过天空的小行星，
08:02
these asteroids are like the
debris of our solar system.
debris of our solar system.
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而这些小行星就像太阳系的碎片，
08:06
The positions of the asteroids
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2008
并且，这些小行星的位置，
08:08
are like a fingerprint of an earlier time
190
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2137
就像宇宙早年留下的指纹。
08:10
when the orbits of Neptune and Jupiter
191
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1980
那时，海王星和木星
08:12
were much closer to the sun,
192
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1895
距离太阳还很近，
08:14
and as these giant planets migrated
through our solar system,
through our solar system,
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而当这些巨型星球在太阳系里迁徙时，
08:18
they were scattering the asteroids in their wake.
194
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也在他们身后散落下了许多个小行星。
08:21
So studying the asteroids
195
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因此，研究这些小行星，
08:22
is like performing forensics,
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2121
如同在取证一样，
08:25
performing forensics on our solar system,
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-对我们的太阳系进行取证。
08:27
but to do this, we need distance,
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要达到这一目的，我们需要距离，
08:30
and we get the distance from the motion,
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-而距离来自于运动，
08:32
and we get the motion because of our access to time.
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运动来自于我们对时间的控制。
08:36
So what does this tell us?
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那么，这意味着什么呢？
08:38
Well, if you look at the little yellow asteroids
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2227
请注意这些黄色的小行星，
08:40
flitting across the screen,
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高速从屏幕中划过，
08:43
these are the asteroids that are moving fastest,
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这些是移动地最快的小行星，
08:45
because they're closest to us, closest to Earth.
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因为他们离我们最近，离地球最近。
08:48
These are the asteroids we may one day
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有一天，我们也许能够向这些小行星，
08:50
send spacecraft to, to mine them for minerals,
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发送宇宙飞船，从那里采矿。
08:53
but they're also the asteroids that may one day
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2002
但也可能，有一天这些小行星，
08:55
impact the Earth,
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1665
会撞上地球。
08:57
like happened 60 million years ago
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就像6000万年前发生的
08:58
with the extinction of the dinosaurs,
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恐龙灭绝一样，
09:01
or just at the beginning of the last century,
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1822
或者像上世纪初发生的那样：
09:03
when an asteroid wiped out
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1332
一颗小行星落下，
09:04
almost 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest,
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3589
摧毁了西伯利亚1000平方英里的森林。
09:08
or even just last year, as one burnt up over Russia,
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3088
抑或像去年一样，一颗小行星在俄罗斯上空燃尽，
09:11
releasing the energy of a small nuclear bomb.
216
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3612
释放了一个小型原子弹的能量。
09:14
So studying the forensics of our solar system
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所以，对我们的太阳系进行取证，
09:18
doesn't just tell us about the past,
218
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2058
并不仅仅是研究过去，
09:20
it can also predict the future,
including our future.
including our future.
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3811
而是要预测未来，包括我们人类的未来。
09:26
Now when we get distance,
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1968
那么，当我们获得距离后，
09:28
we get to see the asteroids
in their natural habitat,
in their natural habitat,
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3589
我们将看到这些小行星在原始轨道的样子-
09:32
in orbit around the sun.
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围绕太阳运转时的样子。
09:33
So every point in this visualization that you can see
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2907
所以，你从这一画面中看到的每一个点，
09:36
is a real asteroid.
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都是这些小行星真实所在的位置。
09:39
Its orbit has been calculated
from its motion across the sky.
from its motion across the sky.
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从它划过天空的运动轨迹，我们计算出它的周转轨道。
09:43
The colors reflect the composition of these asteroids,
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颜色可以反映这些小行星的成分。
09:46
dry and stony in the center,
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中间的干燥多岩石，
09:48
water-rich and primitive towards the edge,
228
576808
2587
边缘的富含水分，成分原始，
09:51
water-rich asteroids which may have seeded
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2284
这些富含水分的小行星，
09:53
the oceans and the seas that we find on our planet
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3451
可能正是它们早期撞击地球时
09:57
when they bombarded the
Earth at an earlier time.
Earth at an earlier time.
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为地球带来了海洋的种子。
10:02
Because the LSST will be able to go faint
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LSST不仅能拍摄广域照片，
10:04
and not just wide,
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还能拍摄无光线物体，
10:06
we will be able to see these asteroids
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我们能看到，
10:08
far beyond the inner part of our solar system,
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3187
远离太阳系内圈轨道的小行星，
10:11
to asteroids beyond the
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
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3813
离海王星和火星轨道很远的小行星，
10:15
to comets and asteroids that may exist
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2261
以及远离我们的太阳几乎一光年
10:17
almost a light year from our sun.
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的彗星和小行星。
10:20
And as we increase the detail of this picture,
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当我们增加更多的画面细节，
10:23
increasing the detail by factors of 10 to 100,
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3127
将像素从10增加到1000，
10:26
we will be able to answer questions such as,
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我们就能回答类似这样的问题了：
10:29
is there evidence for planets
outside the orbit of Neptune,
outside the orbit of Neptune,
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有证据证明海王星轨道外存在星球吗？
10:32
to find Earth-impacting asteroids
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2507
能在危机形成前
10:35
long before they're a danger,
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2535
就发现冲向地球的小行星吗？
10:37
and to find out whether, maybe,
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1757
我们的太阳是自成一体的，
10:39
our sun formed on its own or in a cluster of stars,
246
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3180
并属于恒星之一吗？
10:42
and maybe it's this sun's stellar siblings
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3082
或者，是不是太阳的兄弟姐妹星球
10:45
that influenced the formation of our solar system,
248
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3442
在影响这太阳系的形成？
10:49
and maybe that's one of the reasons why
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
249
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5753
也许这就是为何我们的太阳系显得如此特殊的原因之一。
10:54
Now, distance and changes in our universe —
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4562
现在，我们来说下宇宙的距离和变化——
距离相当于时间，
10:59
distance equates to time,
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3859
距离相当于天空中的变化。
11:03
as well as changes on the sky.
252
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2059
11:05
Every foot of distance you look away,
253
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2790
我们望出去的每一尺距离，
或者一个物体离去的每一尺距离，
11:08
or every foot of distance an object is away,
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2485
你看到的都是十亿分之一秒之前的画面。
11:10
you're looking back about a
billionth of a second in time,
billionth of a second in time,
255
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3589
而这一概念，或者说时间回溯的概念，
11:14
and this idea or this notion of looking back in time
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2613
彻底地改变了我们对宇宙的认知。
11:16
has revolutionized our ideas about the universe,
257
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2631
11:19
not once but multiple times.
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2280
不是一次，而是好多次。
11:21
The first time was in 1929,
259
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2812
第一次是在1929年，
天文学家爱德文·哈勃
11:24
when an astronomer called Edwin Hubble
260
672654
2092
11:26
showed that the universe was expanding,
261
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2249
向人们展示了宇宙是在膨胀的，
诞生了宇宙大爆炸的理论。
11:28
leading to the ideas of the Big Bang.
262
676995
2713
而这一观察是很简单的：
11:31
And the observations were simple:
263
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2582
仅仅是24个星系
11:34
just 24 galaxies
264
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2154
11:36
and a hand-drawn picture.
265
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3050
以及一副手绘图。
但就是这一简单的概念：
11:41
But just the idea that the more distant a galaxy,
266
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4660
“星系离我们越远，其后退的速度越快”，
11:45
the faster it was receding,
267
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2070
就足以开创了现代宇宙学。
11:47
was enough to give rise to modern cosmology.
268
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3419
11:51
A second revolution happened 70 years later,
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2425
第二次思想变革，发生在70年后，
两组天文学家证明，
11:53
when two groups of astronomers showed
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2072
宇宙不仅在膨胀，
11:55
that the universe wasn't just expanding,
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2433
还在加速。
11:58
it was accelerating,
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1325
这着实让人吃惊，如同我向天空扔出一个球，
11:59
a surprise like throwing up a ball into the sky
273
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3343
但它飞到越高的地方时
12:02
and finding out the higher that it gets,
274
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2812
飞离的速度却越快。
12:05
the faster it moves away.
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1778
他们通过测量超新星的亮度，
12:07
And they showed this
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1509
证实了这一点。
12:08
by measuring the brightness of supernovae,
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2405
同时被证明的还有，超新星的亮度
12:11
and how the brightness of the supernovae
278
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1834
在离我们越远时，变得越暗。
12:13
got fainter with distance.
279
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2171
这些发现就更加复杂了。
12:15
And these observations were more complex.
280
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2453
它们需要新的技术和望远镜，
12:17
They required new technologies and new telescopes,
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3014
因为超新星所在星系的位置
12:20
because the supernovae were in galaxies
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4050
在哈勃望远镜可观察范围
12:24
that were 2,000 times more distant
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732897
1958
2000倍以外。
12:26
than the ones used by Hubble.
284
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2688
12:29
And it took three years to find just 42 supernovae,
285
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5311
光是发现42颗超新星就花去了3年时间，
因为一个星系里的一颗超新星，
12:34
because a supernova only explodes
286
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1754
每一百年才爆炸一次。
12:36
once every hundred years within a galaxy.
287
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3082
通过搜索上万个星系，
12:39
Three years to find 42 supernovae
288
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2284
才能在3年内发现42颗超新星。
12:41
by searching through tens of thousands of galaxies.
289
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4019
一旦它们收集到了数据，
12:45
And once they'd collected their data,
290
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1851
便将结果汇总为发现。
12:47
this is what they found.
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3748
这虽然看上去并不壮观，
12:51
Now, this may not look impressive,
292
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2711
但这正是它，发生的表面样式。
12:54
but this is what a revolution in physics looks like:
293
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一条可以预测超新星亮度的线，
12:58
a line predicting the brightness of a supernova
294
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2430
距我们110亿光年，
13:00
11 billion light years away,
295
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2046
这条线上还有许多并不甚契合的点。
13:02
and a handful of points that don't quite fit that line.
296
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3796
微小的变化不断汇集，带来了巨变。
13:06
Small changes give rise to big consequences.
297
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4113
通过量变，我们才有了新发现，
13:10
Small changes allow us to make discoveries,
298
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2948
-正如赫歇尔发现天王星一样。
13:13
like the planet found by Herschel.
299
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2823
微小的变化，改变了我们对，
13:16
Small changes turn our understanding
300
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2272
宇宙的认识。
13:18
of the universe on its head.
301
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2401
所以，42颗超新星，慢慢地暗去，
13:21
So 42 supernovae, slightly too faint,
302
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3464
意味着他们正慢慢飞离我们，
13:24
meaning slightly further away,
303
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2009
也意味着宇宙不仅在膨胀，
13:26
requiring that a universe must not just be expanding,
304
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3160
而且膨胀的速度还在加快，
13:29
but this expansion must be accelerating,
305
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3330
这揭示了宇宙的一个组成成分，
13:33
revealing a component of our universe
306
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1946
我们称之为暗能量，
13:35
which we now call dark energy,
307
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2486
这是一种驱动宇宙膨胀的物质，
13:37
a component that drives this expansion
308
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2509
占今天宇宙总全部物质的，
13:40
and makes up 68 percent of the energy budget
309
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3027
68%。
13:43
of our universe today.
310
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2035
13:46
So what is the next revolution likely to be?
311
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3824
那么，下一次思想变革，将会是什么呢？
什么是暗能量，它为什么存在呢？
13:50
Well, what is dark energy and why does it exist?
312
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2719
请看这些线条，每条都代表了，
13:53
Each of these lines shows a different model
313
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2328
对暗能量存在形式的不同理论。
13:55
for what dark energy might be,
314
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2843
并描绘暗能量的属性。
13:58
showing the properties of dark energy.
315
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2481
他们与这42个点都存在一致性，
14:00
They all are consistent with the 42 points,
316
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3623
但他们背后的理论却
14:04
but the ideas behind these lines
317
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2227
截然不同。
14:06
are dramatically different.
318
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2103
一些人认为，暗能量会
14:08
Some people think about a dark energy
319
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2543
随着时间而变化，
14:11
that changes with time,
320
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1458
或者说，暗能量的成分
14:12
or whether the properties of the dark energy
321
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2288
取决于你望向天空时的位置。
14:15
are different depending on where you look on the sky.
322
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2756
另一些人认为，暗能量的变化
14:17
Others make differences and changes
323
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1823
存在于亚原子表面。
14:19
to the physics at the sub-atomic level.
324
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3048
还有一些人认为，暗能量的变化发生在更大的层面，
14:22
Or, they look at large scales
325
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2790
并改变了重力和广义相对论的作用方式，
14:25
and change how gravity and general relativity work,
326
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3565
或者说，他们认为我们认识的宇宙只是众多宇宙之一，
14:29
or they say our universe is just one of many,
327
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2791
属于神秘的多重宇宙的一部分，
14:31
part of this mysterious multiverse,
328
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2598
但是，所有这些概念、理论，
14:34
but all of these ideas, all of these theories,
329
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3161
虽然让人吃惊，甚至有些疯狂，
14:37
amazing and admittedly some of them a little crazy,
330
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3499
但都与这42个点一致。
14:41
but all of them consistent with our 42 points.
331
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4027
那么，我们如何能在未来十年，
14:45
So how can we hope to make sense of this
332
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2182
弄清楚这一问题呢？
14:47
over the next decade?
333
875428
2272
恩，想象一下，如果给你一对骰子，
14:49
Well, imagine if I gave you a pair of dice,
334
877700
3230
然后，你想判断这些骰子，
14:52
and I said you wanted to see whether those dice
335
880930
1999
是否平整。
14:54
were loaded or fair.
336
882929
1867
滚一次骰子，你得到的信息很有限。
14:56
One roll of the dice would tell you very little,
337
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2934
但滚越多次，
14:59
but the more times you rolled them,
338
887730
1992
你收集到的信息就越多，
15:01
the more data you collected,
339
889722
1922
你对自己的判断就越有信心。
15:03
the more confident you would become,
340
891644
2172
不仅是这些骰子是否平整，
15:05
not just whether they're loaded or fair,
341
893816
2603
而且是平整的程度，哪里不平整等，
你都了如指掌。
你都了如指掌。
15:08
but by how much, and in what way.
342
896419
3898
我们花费了3年才找到42颗超新星，
15:12
It took three years to find just 42 supernovae
343
900317
3802
是因为我们建造的望远镜，
15:16
because the telescopes that we built
344
904119
3047
只搜索天空的一小部分。
15:19
could only survey a small part of the sky.
345
907166
3693
而当我们建好LSST后，我们每3个夜晚
15:22
With the LSST, we get a completely new view
346
910859
2665
就能获得一幅智力上方天空完整的画面。
15:25
of the skies above Chile every three nights.
347
913524
3622
在LSST运行的第一个晚上，
15:29
In its first night of operation,
348
917146
2463
它发现的超新星数量，就相当于我们发现暗能量，
15:31
it will find 10 times the number of supernovae
349
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3150
所需超新星数量的十倍。
15:34
used in the discovery of dark energy.
350
922759
3141
在头4个月内，
15:37
This will increase by 1,000
351
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1809
这一数量将增加到1000倍：
15:39
within the first four months:
352
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2493
即最终发现150万颗超新星。
15:42
1.5 million supernovae by the end of its survey,
353
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4784
每个超新星代表滚一次骰子，
15:46
each supernova a roll of the dice,
354
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3185
每个超新星能测试一下，
15:50
each supernova testing which theories of dark energy
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哪种暗能量理论是准确的，哪种是有矛盾的。
15:53
are consistent, and which ones are not.
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因此，整合这些超新星数据，
15:57
And so, by combining these supernova data
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结合其他宇宙学方法，
16:01
with other measures of cosmology,
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我们将排除很大一部分有关暗能量的
16:03
we'll progressively rule out the different ideas
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假设概念和理论。
16:06
and theories of dark energy
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如果顺利的话，到2030年，
16:08
until hopefully at the end of this survey around 2030,
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我们很有希望，能确定一种
16:15
we would expect to hopefully see
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关于我们宇宙的理论。
16:18
a theory for our universe,
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一种关于我们宇宙物理现象的根本理论，
16:20
a fundamental theory for the physics of our universe,
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正在眼前徐徐展开。
16:23
to gradually emerge.
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恩，实际上，我刚才所列举的例子，
16:26
Now, in many ways, the questions that I posed
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应该是最简单的问题了。
16:29
are in reality the simplest of questions.
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我们可能不知道答案，
16:33
We may not know the answers,
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但至少知道问题是什么。
16:35
but we at least know how to ask the questions.
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当我们观察上万个星系的时候，
16:39
But if looking through tens of thousands of galaxies
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我们将看到42颗超新星，
16:42
revealed 42 supernovae that turned
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同时对宇宙有更深层次的理解，
16:45
our understanding of the universe on its head,
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如果我们观察上十亿个星系，
16:48
when we're working with billions of galaxies,
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发现的超新星，将是42的多少倍呢？
16:51
how many more times are we going to find
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将与我们的预期有多大出入呢？
16:53
42 points that don't quite match what we expect?
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正如赫歇尔发现的行星（天王星）那样，
16:59
Like the planet found by Herschel
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或者正如暗能量，
17:01
or dark energy
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抑或量子力学，广义相对论那样。
17:04
or quantum mechanics or general relativity,
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所有这些概念都来源于数据，
17:08
all ideas that came because the data
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与我们预期不相符的数据。
17:10
didn't quite match what we expected.
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未来十年的天文学数据，让我们为之欣然鼓舞
而雀跃的，
而雀跃的，
17:13
What's so exciting about the next decade of data
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将是什么呢？
17:17
in astronomy is,
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我们甚至不知道有多少答案
17:18
we don't even know how many answers
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还在那里等着我们去拾获。
17:21
are out there waiting,
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这是，关于我们起源和进化的答案。
17:22
answers about our origins and our evolution.
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还有许多问题
等我们去提出。
等我们去提出。
17:26
How many answers are out there
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许多答案，
17:27
that we don't even know the questions
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等待我们去发现。
17:31
that we want to ask?
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谢谢。
17:33
Thank you.
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（掌声）
17:35
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew Connolly - AstronomerAndrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way.
Why you should listen
Andrew Connolly's research focuses on understanding the evolution of our universe, by studying how structure forms and evolves on small and large scales -- from the search for asteroids to the clustering of distant galaxies. He's a ten-year veteran of the Large Synoptic Sky Survey, and is now prepping for the unprecedented data streams we could expect from the under-construction Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
Set on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
More profile about the speakerSet on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
Andrew Connolly | Speaker | TED.com