TED2014
Andrew Connolly: What's the next window into our universe?
Andrew Connolly: Koji je sljedeći prozor u naš svemir?
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Mnoštvo podataka je svuda - čak i na nebu. U ovom informativnom govoru, astronom Andrew Connolly pokazuje kako se skupljaju velike količine podataka o našem svemiru, snimajući ga u njegovim promjenjivim raspoloženjima. Na koji način znanstvenici toliko uspješno slikaju takve fotografije? Sve počinje velikim teleskopom...
Andrew Connolly - Astronomer
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So in 1781, an English composer,
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Godine 1781., engleski skladatelj,
00:16
technologist and astronomer called William Herschel
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tehnolog i astronom William Herschel
00:19
noticed an object on the sky that
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primijetio je da se objekt na nebu
00:21
didn't quite move the way the rest of the stars did.
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nije kretao kao i ostale zvijezde.
00:24
And Herschel's recognition
that something was different,
that something was different,
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Herschelovo zapažanje
da je nešto drugačije,
da je nešto drugačije,
00:27
that something wasn't quite right,
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da nešto nije sasvim u redu,
00:29
was the discovery of a planet,
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značilo je otkriće planeta,
00:31
the planet Uranus,
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planeta Urana,
00:33
a name that has entertained
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čije ime je zabavljalo
00:34
countless generations of children,
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bezbrojne generacije djece,
00:37
but a planet that overnight
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ali i planeta koji je preko noći
udvostručio veličinu nama
poznatog solarnog sustava.
poznatog solarnog sustava.
00:40
doubled the size of our known solar system.
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00:42
Just last month, NASA announced the discovery
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Samo prošli mjesec,
NASA je objavila
NASA je objavila
00:44
of 517 new planets
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otkriće 517 novih planeta
00:46
in orbit around nearby stars,
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u orbiti oko obližnjih zvijezda,
00:48
almost doubling overnight the number of planets
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čime se preko noći
udvostručio broj planeta
udvostručio broj planeta
00:51
we know about within our galaxy.
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koje znamo u našoj galaksiji.
00:53
So astronomy is constantly being transformed by this
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Astronomija se
neprestano mijenja ovakvim
neprestano mijenja ovakvim
00:56
capacity to collect data,
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kapacitetom skupljanja podataka,
00:58
and with data almost doubling every year,
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a ako se podatci
udvostručuju svake godine,
udvostručuju svake godine,
01:01
within the next two decades, me may even
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u sljedeća dva desetljeća,
možda ćemo
možda ćemo
01:02
reach the point for the first time in history
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doći do točke da
po prvi puta u povijesti
po prvi puta u povijesti
01:05
where we've discovered the majority of the galaxies
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otkrijemo većinu galaksija
01:08
within the universe.
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u svemiru.
Kako ulazimo u ovo razdoblje
mnoštva podataka,
mnoštva podataka,
01:09
But as we enter this era of big data,
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01:12
what we're beginning to find is there's a difference
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počinjemo shvaćati da postoji razlika
01:14
between more data being just better
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između podataka
koji su samo bolji
koji su samo bolji
01:17
and more data being different,
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i podataka
koji su drugačiji,
koji su drugačiji,
01:19
capable of changing the questions we want to ask,
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koji su u stanju promijeniti pitanja
koja postavljamo
koja postavljamo
01:22
and this difference is not about
how much data we collect,
how much data we collect,
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i ovdje se ne radi o tome koliko
podataka skupljamo,
podataka skupljamo,
01:25
it's whether those data open new windows
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nego otvaraju li podatci
nove prozore
nove prozore
01:27
into our universe,
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u naš svemir,
01:28
whether they change the way we view the sky.
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mijenjaju li način na koji gledamo nebo.
01:31
So what is the next window into our universe?
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Koji je novi prozor u naš svemir?
01:34
What is the next chapter for astronomy?
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Koje je iduće poglavlje u astronomiji?
01:37
Well, I'm going to show you some
of the tools and the technologies
of the tools and the technologies
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Pokazat ću vam neke alate i tehnologije
01:40
that we're going to develop over the next decade,
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koje ćemo razviti
tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća
tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća
01:42
and how these technologies,
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te kako ove tehnologije
01:44
together with the smart use of data,
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zajedno s pametnom upotrebom podataka
01:46
may once again transform astronomy
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mogu ponovno trasformirati astronomiju
01:49
by opening up a window into our universe,
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otvarajući prozor u naš svemir,
01:51
the window of time.
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prozor vremena.
01:53
Why time? Well, time is about origins,
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Zašto vremena?
Vrijeme je povezano s postankom
Vrijeme je povezano s postankom
01:55
and it's about evolution.
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i evolucijom.
01:57
The origins of our solar system,
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Postanak našeg solarnog sustava,
01:58
how our solar system came into being,
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kako je naš solarni sustav nastao,
02:01
is it unusual or special in any way?
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je li na neki način
neobičan ili poseban?
neobičan ili poseban?
02:04
About the evolution of our universe.
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O evoluciji našeg svemira.
02:06
Why our universe is continuing to expand,
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Zašto se naš svemir nastavlja širiti
02:09
and what is this mysterious dark energy
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i što je ta tajanstvena tamna energija
02:11
that drives that expansion?
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koja gura širenje?
02:14
But first, I want to show you how technology
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Ali prvo, želim vam pokazati
kako će tehnologija
kako će tehnologija
02:16
is going to change the way we view the sky.
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promijeniti način na koji vidimo nebo.
02:19
So imagine if you were sitting
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Zamislite da sjedite
02:21
in the mountains of northern Chile
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na planini u sjevernom Čileu
02:23
looking out to the west
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te gledate na zapad
02:24
towards the Pacific Ocean
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prema Tihom oceanu
02:26
a few hours before sunrise.
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nekoliko sati prije zore.
02:29
This is the view of the night sky that you would see,
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Ovo je noćno nebo koje biste vidjeli
02:32
and it's a beautiful view,
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i pogled je divan,
02:34
with the Milky Way just peeking out over the horizon.
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s Mliječnom stazom
koja proviruje na horizontu.
koja proviruje na horizontu.
02:37
but it's also a static view,
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No ovo je i statičan pogled,
02:39
and in many ways, this is the
way we think of our universe:
way we think of our universe:
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a tako i razmišljamo
o našem svemiru:
o našem svemiru:
02:42
eternal and unchanging.
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kao vječnom i nepromjenjivom.
02:44
But the universe is anything but static.
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No svemir je sve samo ne statičan.
02:46
It constantly changes on timescales of seconds
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Neprestano se mijenja
u rasponima od sekunde
u rasponima od sekunde
02:48
to billions of years.
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do milijardi godina.
02:50
Galaxies merge, they collide
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Galaksije se spajaju,
sudaraju se
sudaraju se
02:52
at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour.
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stotinama tisuća kilometara na sat.
02:55
Stars are born, they die,
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Zvijezde se rađaju,
umiru,
umiru,
02:57
they explode in these extravagant displays.
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eksplodiraju u ovim
ekstravagantnim predstavama.
ekstravagantnim predstavama.
03:00
In fact, if we could go back
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Ako se možemo vratiti
03:01
to our tranquil skies above Chile,
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našem mirnom nebu iznad Čilea
03:04
and we allow time to move forward
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i prikazati protok vremena
03:06
to see how the sky might change over the next year,
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da vidimo promjene neba
tijekom sljedeće godine,
tijekom sljedeće godine,
03:11
the pulsations that you see
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pulsacije koje vidite su
03:13
are supernovae, the final remnants of a dying star
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supernove, posljednji tragovi
umiruće zvijezde
umiruće zvijezde
03:17
exploding, brightening and then fading from view,
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koji eksplodiraju,
zasvijetle i izblijede iz pogleda.
zasvijetle i izblijede iz pogleda.
03:21
each one of these supernovae
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Svaka od ovih supernova je
03:23
five billion times the brightness of our sun,
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pet milijardi puta svjetlija
od našeg Sunca
od našeg Sunca
03:26
so we can see them to great distances
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stoga vidimo i vrlo udaljene,
03:28
but only for a short amount of time.
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ali samo nakratko.
Po deset supernova
eksplodira u jednoj sekundi
eksplodira u jednoj sekundi
03:31
Ten supernova per second explode somewhere
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03:33
in our universe.
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negdje u našem svemiru.
03:35
If we could hear it,
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Kada bismo ih mogli čuti
03:36
it would be popping like a bag of popcorn.
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pucketale bi kao kokice.
03:40
Now, if we fade out the supernovae,
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Ako zablijedimo supernove,
03:43
it's not just brightness that changes.
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ne mijenja se samo svjetlina.
03:46
Our sky is in constant motion.
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Naše nebo se neprestano kreće.
03:49
This swarm of objects you
see streaming across the sky
see streaming across the sky
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Ovaj roj objekata
koji putuje nebom su
koji putuje nebom su
03:52
are asteroids as they orbit our sun,
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asteroidi u Sunčevoj orbiti,
03:54
and it's these changes and the motion
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a ove promjene i kretanja
03:56
and it's the dynamics of the system
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te dinamika sustava
03:59
that allow us to build our models for our universe,
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omogućava nam
izgradnju modela našeg svemira,
izgradnju modela našeg svemira,
04:01
to predict its future and to explain its past.
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kako bi predvidjeli budućnost
i objasnili prošlost.
i objasnili prošlost.
04:05
But the telescopes we've used over the last decade
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Teleskopi koje smo koristili
tijekom prošlog desetljeća
tijekom prošlog desetljeća
04:08
are not designed to capture the data at this scale.
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nisu izgrađeni za hvatanje
ovakvih podataka.
ovakvih podataka.
04:12
The Hubble Space Telescope:
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Svemirski teleskop Hubble:
04:14
for the last 25 years it's been producing
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u zadnjih 25 godina stvorio je
04:16
some of the most detailed views
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neke od najdetaljnijih slika
04:18
of our distant universe,
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dalekog svemira,
04:20
but if you tried to use the Hubble to create an image
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ali kada bi Hubble
pokušao uslikati nebo,
pokušao uslikati nebo,
04:22
of the sky, it would take 13 million individual images,
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slikao bi 13 milijuna
pojedinačnih slika
pojedinačnih slika
04:27
about 120 years to do this just once.
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tijekom 120 godina
kako bi dobio tu sliku.
kako bi dobio tu sliku.
04:30
So this is driving us to new technologies
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Ovo nas gura
prema novim tehnologijama
prema novim tehnologijama
04:33
and new telescopes,
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i novim teleskopima,
04:35
telescopes that can go faint
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teleskopima koji mogu ići u dubinu
04:36
to look at the distant universe
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da vidimo daleki svemir,
04:38
but also telescopes that can go wide
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ali i teleskope koji mogu ići u širinu
04:41
to capture the sky as rapidly as possible,
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da uslikamo nebo
što je brže moguće,
što je brže moguće,
04:43
telescopes like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope,
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teleskope poput Velikog teleskopa
za sinoptički pregled neba
za sinoptički pregled neba
04:47
or the LSST,
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ili LSST-a,
04:49
possibly the most boring name ever
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što je vjerojatno
najdosadniji naziv ikada
najdosadniji naziv ikada
04:51
for one of the most fascinating experiments
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za jedan od
najfascinantnijih eksperimenata
najfascinantnijih eksperimenata
04:53
in the history of astronomy,
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u povijesti astronomije.
04:55
in fact proof, if you should need it,
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Zapravo je dokaz,
ako vam je potreban,
ako vam je potreban,
04:57
that you should never allow
a scientist or an engineer
a scientist or an engineer
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da nikada ne biste trebali dopustiti
znanstveniku ili inženjeru
znanstveniku ili inženjeru
05:00
to name anything, not even your children.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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da imenuje išta, čak ni svoju djecu.
(Smijeh)
(Smijeh)
05:06
We're building the LSST.
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Gradimo LSST.
05:07
We expect it to start taking data
by the end of this decade.
by the end of this decade.
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Očekujemo da će početi slati podatke
do kraja ovog desetljeća.
do kraja ovog desetljeća.
05:11
I'm going to show you how we think
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Pokazat ću vam kako mislimo
05:12
it's going to transform
our views of the universe,
our views of the universe,
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da će transformirati naša
viđenja svemira
viđenja svemira
05:16
because one image from the LSST
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jer je jedna slika s LSST-a
05:18
is equivalent to 3,000 images
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jednaka 3000 slika
05:21
from the Hubble Space Telescope,
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Svemirskog teleskopa Hubble.
05:23
each image three and a half degrees on the sky,
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Svaka slika iznosi
tri i pol stupnja na nebu,
tri i pol stupnja na nebu,
05:26
seven times the width of the full moon.
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sedam puta širine punog Mjeseca.
05:29
Well, how do you capture an image at this scale?
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Kako uslikati sliku ove veličine?
05:31
Well, you build the largest digital camera in history,
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Pa, izgradite najveći digitalni
fotoaparat u povijesti,
fotoaparat u povijesti,
05:35
using the same technology you find
in the cameras in your cell phone
in the cameras in your cell phone
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upotrebom iste tehnologije koja
je u fotoaparatima vaših mobitela
je u fotoaparatima vaših mobitela
05:38
or in the digital cameras you
can buy in the High Street,
can buy in the High Street,
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ili u digitalnim fotoaparatima
koje kupujete u centru,
koje kupujete u centru,
05:42
but now at a scale that is five and a half feet across,
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ali sada u razmjeru
većem od metar i pol širine,
većem od metar i pol širine,
05:45
about the size of a Volkswagen Beetle,
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veličinom otprilike kao Volkswagen Buba,
05:48
where one image is three billion pixels.
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gdje jedna slika
ima tri milijarde piksela.
ima tri milijarde piksela.
05:51
So if you wanted to look at an image
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Ako želite vidjeti sliku
05:52
in its full resolution, just a single LSST image,
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u punoj rezoluciji,
samo jednu LSST-ovu sliku,
samo jednu LSST-ovu sliku,
05:55
it would take about 1,500
high-definition TV screens.
high-definition TV screens.
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trebalo bi vam oko 1500
TV ekrana visoke rezolucije.
TV ekrana visoke rezolucije.
06:00
And this camera will image the sky,
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Ovaj fotoaparat će snimati nebo,
06:03
taking a new picture every 20 seconds,
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okidajući novu sliku svakih 20 sekundi,
06:06
constantly scanning the sky
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konstantno će skenirati nebo
06:08
so every three nights, we'll get a completely new view
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tako da ćemo svake tri noći,
imati potpuno novi pogled
imati potpuno novi pogled
06:11
of the skies above Chile.
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na nebo iznad Čilea.
06:13
Over the mission lifetime of this telescope,
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Tijekom trajanja
misije ovog teleskopa,
misije ovog teleskopa,
06:16
it will detect 40 billion stars and galaxies,
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otkrit će 40 milijardi
zvijezda i galaksija
zvijezda i galaksija
06:19
and that will be for the first time
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i to će biti prvi puta
06:21
we'll have detected more objects in our universe
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da ćemo otkriti više objekata u svemiru
06:24
than people on the Earth.
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nego što je ljudi na Zemlji.
Možemo pričati o ovome
06:26
Now, we can talk about this
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06:28
in terms of terabytes and petabytes
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u terminima terabajta i petabajta
06:30
and billions of objects,
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i milijardama objekata,
no ako želimo dobiti dojam
količine podataka
količine podataka
06:31
but a way to get a sense of the amount of data
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06:33
that will come off this camera
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koje će ovaj fotoaparat poslati,
06:35
is that it's like playing every TED Talk ever recorded
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to je kao da upalimo
svaki TED Talk ikada snimljen,
svaki TED Talk ikada snimljen,
06:40
simultaneously, 24 hours a day,
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istovremeno, 24 sata na dan,
06:43
seven days a week, for 10 years.
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sedam dana u tjednu, tijekom 10 godina.
06:46
And to process this data means
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Procesuiranje ovih podataka znači
06:48
searching through all of those talks
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pretraživati sve te govore
06:50
for every new idea and every new concept,
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za svakom novom idejom
i novim konceptom
i novim konceptom
06:52
looking at each part of the video
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tako da gledate svaki dio videa
06:54
to see how one frame may have changed
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kako bi našli promjenu
jednog okvira videa
jednog okvira videa
06:56
from the next.
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u usporedbi sa sljedećim.
06:58
And this is changing the way that we do science,
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Ovo mijenja način
na koji se bavimo znanošću,
na koji se bavimo znanošću,
07:00
changing the way that we do astronomy,
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mijenja način na koji se
bavimo astronomijom
bavimo astronomijom
07:02
to a place where software and algorithms
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jer softver i algoritmi
07:05
have to mine through this data,
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moraju rovati kroz ove podatke,
07:07
where the software is as critical to the science
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pri čemu je softver
jednako neophodan znanosti
jednako neophodan znanosti
kao i teleskopi i kamere koje gradimo.
07:10
as the telescopes and the
cameras that we've built.
cameras that we've built.
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07:14
Now, thousands of discoveries
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Tisuće će otkrića
07:16
will come from this project,
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poteći iz ovoga projekta,
07:18
but I'm just going to tell you about two
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ali navesti ću samo dvije
07:20
of the ideas about origins and evolution
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ideje o postanku i evoluciji
07:22
that may be transformed by our access
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koje bi se mogle transformirati
našim pristupom
našim pristupom
07:24
to data at this scale.
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podatcima ovih razmjera.
07:27
In the last five years, NASA has discovered
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U posljednjih pet godina,
NASA je otkrila
NASA je otkrila
07:29
over 1,000 planetary systems
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preko 1000 planetarnih sustava
07:32
around nearby stars,
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oko obližnjih zvijezda.
07:34
but the systems we're finding
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No sustavi koje pronalazimo
07:36
aren't much like our own solar system,
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nisu poput našeg solarnog sustava
07:38
and one of the questions we face is
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i postavlja se pitanje
07:40
is it just that we haven't been looking hard enough
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je li možda nismo
dovoljno tražili
dovoljno tražili
07:42
or is there something special or unusual
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ili postoji nešto posebno ili neobično
07:44
about how our solar system formed?
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u tome kako se
naš solarni sustav oblikovao?
naš solarni sustav oblikovao?
07:46
And if we want to answer that question,
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Ako želimo odgovoriti na ovo pitanje,
07:48
we have to know and understand
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moramo znati i razumjeti
07:50
the history of our solar system in detail,
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povijest našeg solarnog sustava u detalje,
07:53
and it's the details that are crucial.
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a detalji su doista presuđujući.
07:55
So now, if we look back at the sky,
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Ako ponovno pogledamo nebo,
07:59
at our asteroids that were streaming across the sky,
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u naše asteroide koji
prelijeću preko neba,
prelijeću preko neba,
08:02
these asteroids are like the
debris of our solar system.
debris of our solar system.
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ovi asteroidi su poput ostataka
našeg solarnog sustava.
našeg solarnog sustava.
08:06
The positions of the asteroids
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2008
Pozicija asteroida je
08:08
are like a fingerprint of an earlier time
190
476858
2137
poput otiska prsta
nekog prošlog vremena
nekog prošlog vremena
08:10
when the orbits of Neptune and Jupiter
191
478995
1980
u kojem su orbite
Neptuna i Jupitera
Neptuna i Jupitera
08:12
were much closer to the sun,
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1895
bile puno bliže Suncu,
08:14
and as these giant planets migrated
through our solar system,
through our solar system,
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a kako su ovi ogromni planeti migrirali
kroz naš solarni sustav,
kroz naš solarni sustav,
08:18
they were scattering the asteroids in their wake.
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razbacivali su asteroide na svom putu.
08:21
So studying the asteroids
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1306
Proučavanje asteroida je
08:22
is like performing forensics,
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2121
poput forenzike,
08:25
performing forensics on our solar system,
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forenzike nad našim solarnim sustavom,
08:27
but to do this, we need distance,
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2702
ali za ovo, treba nam udaljenost,
08:30
and we get the distance from the motion,
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udaljenost dobivamo pokretom,
08:32
and we get the motion because of our access to time.
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a pokret dobivamo našim
pristupom vremenu.
pristupom vremenu.
08:36
So what does this tell us?
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Što nam ovo govori?
08:38
Well, if you look at the little yellow asteroids
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2227
Ako pogledate u male žute asteroide
08:40
flitting across the screen,
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koji prolaze ekranom,
08:43
these are the asteroids that are moving fastest,
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ovi asteroidi se najbrže kreću
08:45
because they're closest to us, closest to Earth.
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3341
jer su nam najbliže,
najbliže Zemlji.
najbliže Zemlji.
Na ove asteroide
bi možda mogli
bi možda mogli
08:48
These are the asteroids we may one day
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1507
08:50
send spacecraft to, to mine them for minerals,
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3398
slati letjelice
i rudariti minerale,
i rudariti minerale,
08:53
but they're also the asteroids that may one day
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521844
2002
ali ovo su asteroidi
koji bi jednom mogli
koji bi jednom mogli
08:55
impact the Earth,
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1665
i udariti u Zemlju
08:57
like happened 60 million years ago
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1291
kao prije 60 milijuna godina
08:58
with the extinction of the dinosaurs,
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2635
kada su izumrli dinosauri
09:01
or just at the beginning of the last century,
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1822
ili čak početkom prošlog stoljeća
09:03
when an asteroid wiped out
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1332
kada je asteroid uništio
09:04
almost 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest,
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preko 2500 kvadratnih kilometara
Sibirske šume
Sibirske šume
09:08
or even just last year, as one burnt up over Russia,
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3088
ili pak prošle godine,
kada je jedan izgorio iznad Rusije
kada je jedan izgorio iznad Rusije
09:11
releasing the energy of a small nuclear bomb.
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3612
i ispustio energiju male nuklearne bombe.
09:14
So studying the forensics of our solar system
217
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3622
Proučavanje forenzike
našeg solarnog sustava
našeg solarnog sustava
09:18
doesn't just tell us about the past,
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2058
nam ne govori samo o prošlosti,
09:20
it can also predict the future,
including our future.
including our future.
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3811
nego može predvidjeti i budućnost,
uključujući i našu budućnost.
uključujući i našu budućnost.
09:26
Now when we get distance,
220
554771
1968
Kada se udaljimo,
09:28
we get to see the asteroids
in their natural habitat,
in their natural habitat,
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vidimo asteroide u njihovom
prirodnom staništu,
prirodnom staništu,
09:32
in orbit around the sun.
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u orbiti oko Sunca.
09:33
So every point in this visualization that you can see
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Svaka točka koju vidite
u ovom prikazu je
u ovom prikazu je
09:36
is a real asteroid.
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2763
stvarni asteroid.
09:39
Its orbit has been calculated
from its motion across the sky.
from its motion across the sky.
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567320
4010
Njegova orbita je izračunata
pomoću njegovog kretanja po nebu.
pomoću njegovog kretanja po nebu.
09:43
The colors reflect the composition of these asteroids,
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3341
Boje označavaju sastav ovih asteroida,
09:46
dry and stony in the center,
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574671
2137
suhih i kamenih u sredini,
09:48
water-rich and primitive towards the edge,
228
576808
2587
bogatih vodom i primitivnih
prema rubovima,
prema rubovima,
09:51
water-rich asteroids which may have seeded
229
579395
2284
asteroidi bogati vodom
koji su možda posijali
koji su možda posijali
09:53
the oceans and the seas that we find on our planet
230
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3451
oceane i mora
na našem planetu
na našem planetu
09:57
when they bombarded the
Earth at an earlier time.
Earth at an earlier time.
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3206
dok su u prošlosti bombardirali Zemlju.
10:02
Because the LSST will be able to go faint
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2832
S obzirom da će LSST
moći snimati duboko
moći snimati duboko
10:04
and not just wide,
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a ne samo široko,
10:06
we will be able to see these asteroids
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1808
moći ćemo vidjeti
ove asteroide
ove asteroide
10:08
far beyond the inner part of our solar system,
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3187
puno dalje od unutarnjeg dijela
našeg solarnog sustava
našeg solarnog sustava
10:11
to asteroids beyond the
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
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3813
do asteroida iza orbita
Neptuna i Marsa,
Neptuna i Marsa,
10:15
to comets and asteroids that may exist
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2261
do kometa i asteroida koji su možda
10:17
almost a light year from our sun.
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3230
gotovo svjetlosnu godinu
udaljeni od našeg Sunca.
udaljeni od našeg Sunca.
10:20
And as we increase the detail of this picture,
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2609
Kako povećavamo detalje ove slike
10:23
increasing the detail by factors of 10 to 100,
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3127
do faktora od 10 ili 100,
10:26
we will be able to answer questions such as,
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2430
možemo odgovoriti na pitanja:
10:29
is there evidence for planets
outside the orbit of Neptune,
outside the orbit of Neptune,
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3589
ima li dokaza o planetima
izvan Neptunove orbite,
izvan Neptunove orbite,
kako bi pronašli asteroide
koji mogu udariti u Zemlju
koji mogu udariti u Zemlju
10:32
to find Earth-impacting asteroids
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2507
10:35
long before they're a danger,
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2535
puno prije nego postanu opasni
10:37
and to find out whether, maybe,
245
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1757
te kako bismo saznali je li se
10:39
our sun formed on its own or in a cluster of stars,
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627510
3180
naše Sunce možda oblikovalo samo
ili u zvjezdanom jatu,
ili u zvjezdanom jatu,
10:42
and maybe it's this sun's stellar siblings
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630690
3082
a možda su i zvjezdana braća
našeg Sunca
našeg Sunca
10:45
that influenced the formation of our solar system,
248
633772
3442
utjecala na oblikovanje
našeg solarnog sustava
našeg solarnog sustava
10:49
and maybe that's one of the reasons why
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
249
637214
5753
i to je možda razlog zašto su
solarni sustavi poput našeg rijetki.
solarni sustavi poput našeg rijetki.
10:54
Now, distance and changes in our universe —
250
642974
4562
Udaljenost i promjene u našem svemiru -
10:59
distance equates to time,
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3859
udaljenost je jednaka vremenu,
11:03
as well as changes on the sky.
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2059
kao i promjene na nebu.
11:05
Every foot of distance you look away,
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2790
Svaki metar udaljenosti
11:08
or every foot of distance an object is away,
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2485
ili svaki metar
za koji je objekt udaljeniji,
za koji je objekt udaljeniji,
11:10
you're looking back about a
billionth of a second in time,
billionth of a second in time,
255
658729
3589
gledate oko milijardu
sekunde u prošlost,
sekunde u prošlost,
11:14
and this idea or this notion of looking back in time
256
662318
2613
a ova ideja ili teorija
gledanja u prošlost je
gledanja u prošlost je
11:16
has revolutionized our ideas about the universe,
257
664931
2631
iz temelja promijenila
naše ideje o svemiru,
naše ideje o svemiru,
11:19
not once but multiple times.
258
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2280
ne jedanput
nego nekoliko puta.
nego nekoliko puta.
11:21
The first time was in 1929,
259
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2812
Prvi puta je to bilo 1929.,
11:24
when an astronomer called Edwin Hubble
260
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2092
kada je astronom Edwin Hubble
11:26
showed that the universe was expanding,
261
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2249
pokazao da se svemir širi,
11:28
leading to the ideas of the Big Bang.
262
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2713
što je dovelo do ideje Velikog praska.
11:31
And the observations were simple:
263
679708
2582
Zapažanja su bila jednostavna:
11:34
just 24 galaxies
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2154
samo 24 galaksije
11:36
and a hand-drawn picture.
265
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3050
i rukom nacrtan crtež.
11:41
But just the idea that the more distant a galaxy,
266
689124
4660
Sama ideja da što je galaksija udaljenija,
11:45
the faster it was receding,
267
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2070
ona brže uzmiče,
11:47
was enough to give rise to modern cosmology.
268
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3419
bila je dovoljna da prouzrokuje
modernu kozmologiju.
modernu kozmologiju.
11:51
A second revolution happened 70 years later,
269
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2425
Druga revolucija dogodila se
70 godina poslije
70 godina poslije
kada su dvije grupe astronoma pokazale
11:53
when two groups of astronomers showed
270
701698
2072
11:55
that the universe wasn't just expanding,
271
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2433
da osim širenja svemira,
11:58
it was accelerating,
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1325
on i ubrazava,
11:59
a surprise like throwing up a ball into the sky
273
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3343
iznenađenje poput
bacanja lopte u zrak
bacanja lopte u zrak
12:02
and finding out the higher that it gets,
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2812
i što više ona leti,
sve više i ubrzava.
12:05
the faster it moves away.
275
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1778
I pokazali su ovo
12:07
And they showed this
276
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1509
12:08
by measuring the brightness of supernovae,
277
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2405
mjerenjem svjetline supernove
te toga da je svjetlina supernove
12:11
and how the brightness of the supernovae
278
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1834
12:13
got fainter with distance.
279
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2171
bila blijeđa što je udaljenija.
12:15
And these observations were more complex.
280
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2453
Ova zapažanja
bila su kompliciranija.
bila su kompliciranija.
12:17
They required new technologies and new telescopes,
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3014
Zahtijevala su nove tehnologije
i nove teleskope
i nove teleskope
12:20
because the supernovae were in galaxies
282
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4050
jer su supernove
bile u galaksijama
bile u galaksijama
12:24
that were 2,000 times more distant
283
732897
1958
koje su 2000 puta udaljenije
12:26
than the ones used by Hubble.
284
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2688
od onih koje je Hubble koristio.
12:29
And it took three years to find just 42 supernovae,
285
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5311
Tri godine su tražili
samo 42 supernove
samo 42 supernove
12:34
because a supernova only explodes
286
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1754
jer supernova eksplodira
12:36
once every hundred years within a galaxy.
287
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3082
jednom u sto godina
unutar jedne galaksije.
unutar jedne galaksije.
12:39
Three years to find 42 supernovae
288
747690
2284
Tri godine za pronalazak 42 supernove,
12:41
by searching through tens of thousands of galaxies.
289
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4019
pretraživanjem desetaka
tisuća galaksija.
tisuća galaksija.
12:45
And once they'd collected their data,
290
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1851
Kada su prikupili podatke,
12:47
this is what they found.
291
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3748
pronašli su ovo.
12:51
Now, this may not look impressive,
292
759592
2711
Ovo možda ne izgleda impresivno,
12:54
but this is what a revolution in physics looks like:
293
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4115
ali ovako izgleda revolucija u fizici:
linija koja predviđa svjetlinu supernove
12:58
a line predicting the brightness of a supernova
294
766418
2430
udaljene 11 milijardi svjetlosnih godina
13:00
11 billion light years away,
295
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2046
13:02
and a handful of points that don't quite fit that line.
296
770894
3796
i skup točaka koji baš i ne idu uz liniju.
13:06
Small changes give rise to big consequences.
297
774690
4113
Male promjene dovode
do velikih posljedica.
do velikih posljedica.
Male promjene nam omogućavaju otkrića
13:10
Small changes allow us to make discoveries,
298
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2948
13:13
like the planet found by Herschel.
299
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2823
poput planeta kojeg je Herschel pronašao.
Male promjene okreću naše razumijevanje
13:16
Small changes turn our understanding
300
784574
2272
13:18
of the universe on its head.
301
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2401
svemira naglavačke.
13:21
So 42 supernovae, slightly too faint,
302
789247
3464
Dakle, 42 supernove,
koje su malo preblijede
koje su malo preblijede
što znači malo udaljenije,
13:24
meaning slightly further away,
303
792711
2009
13:26
requiring that a universe must not just be expanding,
304
794720
3160
koje iziskuju širenje svemira,
13:29
but this expansion must be accelerating,
305
797880
3330
ali i ubrzavanje tog širenja
što je otkrilo novi
sastavni dio našeg svemira,
sastavni dio našeg svemira,
13:33
revealing a component of our universe
306
801210
1946
13:35
which we now call dark energy,
307
803156
2486
koji sada nazivamo
tamnom energijom,
tamnom energijom,
13:37
a component that drives this expansion
308
805642
2509
sastavni dio koji gura ovo širenje
13:40
and makes up 68 percent of the energy budget
309
808151
3027
i tvori 68% energetskog proračuna
13:43
of our universe today.
310
811178
2035
našeg svemira.
13:46
So what is the next revolution likely to be?
311
814751
3824
Kako će izgledati sljedeća revolucija?
Što je tamna energija i zašto postoji?
13:50
Well, what is dark energy and why does it exist?
312
818575
2719
13:53
Each of these lines shows a different model
313
821294
2328
Svaka od ovih linija
pokazuje drugačiji model toga
pokazuje drugačiji model toga
13:55
for what dark energy might be,
314
823622
2843
što bi tamna energija mogla biti
i pokazuje svojstva tamne energije.
13:58
showing the properties of dark energy.
315
826465
2481
14:00
They all are consistent with the 42 points,
316
828946
3623
Konzistentne su u sve 42 točke,
14:04
but the ideas behind these lines
317
832569
2227
ali ideje iza ovih linija su
14:06
are dramatically different.
318
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2103
drastično različite.
14:08
Some people think about a dark energy
319
836899
2543
Neki smatraju da se tamna energija
14:11
that changes with time,
320
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1458
s vremenom mijenja
14:12
or whether the properties of the dark energy
321
840900
2288
ili da su svojstva tamne energije
14:15
are different depending on where you look on the sky.
322
843188
2756
drugačija ovisno o tome gdje gledate.
Drugi pripisuju razlike i promjene
14:17
Others make differences and changes
323
845944
1823
14:19
to the physics at the sub-atomic level.
324
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3048
fizici na subatomskoj razini.
14:22
Or, they look at large scales
325
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2790
Ili, gledaju velike razmjere
14:25
and change how gravity and general relativity work,
326
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3565
i mijenjaju način rada gravitacije
i opće relativnosti
i opće relativnosti
ili smatraju da je naš svemir
jedan od mnogih,
jedan od mnogih,
14:29
or they say our universe is just one of many,
327
857170
2791
dio misterioznog multiverzuma.
14:31
part of this mysterious multiverse,
328
859961
2598
14:34
but all of these ideas, all of these theories,
329
862559
3161
Sve su ove ideje,
sve su ove teorije,
sve su ove teorije,
14:37
amazing and admittedly some of them a little crazy,
330
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3499
zadivljujuće, a neke i malo lude,
14:41
but all of them consistent with our 42 points.
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sve su konzistentne
s naše 42 točke.
s naše 42 točke.
Možemo li se nadati dati smisao
14:45
So how can we hope to make sense of this
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14:47
over the next decade?
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ovome tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća.
14:49
Well, imagine if I gave you a pair of dice,
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Zamislite da sam vam dao dvije kockice
14:52
and I said you wanted to see whether those dice
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i rekao da pogledate jesu li kockice
14:54
were loaded or fair.
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namještene ili ispravne.
14:56
One roll of the dice would tell you very little,
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Jedno bacanje kockice
reklo bi vam jako malo,
reklo bi vam jako malo,
14:59
but the more times you rolled them,
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ali što biste ih više bacali,
15:01
the more data you collected,
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više podataka biste imali
15:03
the more confident you would become,
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te biste postajali sve uvjereniji
15:05
not just whether they're loaded or fair,
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2603
ne samo u to jesu li
namještene ili ispravne
namještene ili ispravne
15:08
but by how much, and in what way.
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nego i koliko i na koji način.
15:12
It took three years to find just 42 supernovae
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Trebalo je tri godine
da se pronađu 42 supernove
da se pronađu 42 supernove
15:16
because the telescopes that we built
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jer izgrađeni teleskopi
15:19
could only survey a small part of the sky.
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mogu vidjeti samo mali djelić neba.
15:22
With the LSST, we get a completely new view
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S LSST-em,
imat ćemo potpuno novi pogled
imat ćemo potpuno novi pogled
15:25
of the skies above Chile every three nights.
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na nebo iznad Čilea,
svake tri noći.
svake tri noći.
15:29
In its first night of operation,
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U svojoj prvoj noći rada,
15:31
it will find 10 times the number of supernovae
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pronaći će 10 puta više supernova
15:34
used in the discovery of dark energy.
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nego što je korišteno u
otkriću tamne energije.
otkriću tamne energije.
15:37
This will increase by 1,000
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Ovo će se povećati za 1000
15:39
within the first four months:
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u prva četiri mjeseca:
15:42
1.5 million supernovae by the end of its survey,
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1,5 milijuna supernova
do kraja pretraživanja.
do kraja pretraživanja.
15:46
each supernova a roll of the dice,
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Svaka supernova je poput bacanja kockice,
15:50
each supernova testing which theories of dark energy
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svaka supernova testira
koje su teorije o tamnoj energiji
koje su teorije o tamnoj energiji
15:53
are consistent, and which ones are not.
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konzistentne, a koje nisu.
15:57
And so, by combining these supernova data
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Kombinacijom ovih podataka o supernovama
16:01
with other measures of cosmology,
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s drugim kozmološkim mjerama,
16:03
we'll progressively rule out the different ideas
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postupno ćemo isključivati razne ideje
16:06
and theories of dark energy
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i teorije o tamnoj energiji
16:08
until hopefully at the end of this survey around 2030,
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7142
sve do kraja ovog pretraživanja,
oko 2030. godine,
oko 2030. godine,
16:15
we would expect to hopefully see
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2614
kada s nadom očekujemo vidjeti
16:18
a theory for our universe,
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2142
teoriju o našem svemiru,
16:20
a fundamental theory for the physics of our universe,
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2539
osnovnu teoriju fizike našeg svemira
16:23
to gradually emerge.
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2757
i njezinu postupnu pojavu.
16:26
Now, in many ways, the questions that I posed
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Na neki način,
pitanja koja sam postavio su
pitanja koja sam postavio su
16:29
are in reality the simplest of questions.
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4361
doista najjednostavnija pitanja.
Možda nemamo odgovore,
16:33
We may not know the answers,
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1754
16:35
but we at least know how to ask the questions.
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ali barem znamo postaviti pitanja.
Ako je pregledavanje
desetaka tisuća galaksija
desetaka tisuća galaksija
16:39
But if looking through tens of thousands of galaxies
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3118
16:42
revealed 42 supernovae that turned
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2938
otkrilo 42 supernove
i okrenulo naše razumijevanje
svemira naglavačke,
svemira naglavačke,
16:45
our understanding of the universe on its head,
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3479
16:48
when we're working with billions of galaxies,
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kada budemo radili
s milijardama galaksija,
s milijardama galaksija,
16:51
how many more times are we going to find
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1777
koliko puta ćemo naći
16:53
42 points that don't quite match what we expect?
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još 42 točke koje se ne poklapaju
s onim što očekujemo?
s onim što očekujemo?
16:59
Like the planet found by Herschel
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Kao planet koji je Herschel pronašao
17:01
or dark energy
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2417
ili tamna energija
17:04
or quantum mechanics or general relativity,
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3843
ili kvantna mehanika ili opća relativnost,
17:08
all ideas that came because the data
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2344
sve ideje koje su se javile
jer se podatci
jer se podatci
17:10
didn't quite match what we expected.
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3455
nisu poklapali s onim
što smo očekivali.
što smo očekivali.
17:13
What's so exciting about the next decade of data
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Ono što je uzbudljivo u idućem
desetljeću podataka
desetljeću podataka
17:17
in astronomy is,
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u astronomiji jeste to
17:18
we don't even know how many answers
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da ne znamo koliko odgovora
17:21
are out there waiting,
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nas čeka,
17:22
answers about our origins and our evolution.
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odgovora o našem postanku
i našoj evoluciji.
i našoj evoluciji.
17:26
How many answers are out there
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1095
Koliko nas odgovora čeka
17:27
that we don't even know the questions
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za koje čak ne znamo
ni pitanja
ni pitanja
17:31
that we want to ask?
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koja želimo postaviti?
17:33
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:35
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew Connolly - AstronomerAndrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way.
Why you should listen
Andrew Connolly's research focuses on understanding the evolution of our universe, by studying how structure forms and evolves on small and large scales -- from the search for asteroids to the clustering of distant galaxies. He's a ten-year veteran of the Large Synoptic Sky Survey, and is now prepping for the unprecedented data streams we could expect from the under-construction Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
Set on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
More profile about the speakerSet on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
Andrew Connolly | Speaker | TED.com