TED2014
Andrew Connolly: What's the next window into our universe?
安德魯·康諾利: 探索深邃宇宙的下一個窗口
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大數據無處不在——即便是浩瀚蒼穹亦然如此。在本次說明性演講中，天文學家安德魯·康諾利闡述了當前搜集宇宙海量數據所使用的方法，由此記錄著宇宙瞬息萬變的進程。科學家們為何能大規模地捕集如此多不勝數的圖片？這還得從巨型天文望遠鏡說起.....
Andrew Connolly - Astronomer
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Andrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So in 1781, an English composer,
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1781 年，一位英國作家、
工程師兼天文學家
工程師兼天文學家
00:16
technologist and astronomer called William Herschel
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名叫威廉•赫歇爾，
00:19
noticed an object on the sky that
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在浩瀚的夜空中觀測到一個天體，
00:21
didn't quite move the way the rest of the stars did.
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其運行方式與其他恒星大相徑庭。
00:24
And Herschel's recognition
that something was different,
that something was different,
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赫歇爾覺得這個天體不同尋常，
00:27
that something wasn't quite right,
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有些不太對勁，
00:29
was the discovery of a planet,
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事實上他發現的是一顆行星，
00:31
the planet Uranus,
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也就是我們熟知的天王星。
00:33
a name that has entertained
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天王星這個名字
00:34
countless generations of children,
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讓一代又一代年輕人興趣盎然，
00:37
but a planet that overnight
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然而，這顆高懸於天際的行星
00:40
doubled the size of our known solar system.
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一經發現便讓人類已知的
太陽系範圍整整擴大了一倍。
太陽系範圍整整擴大了一倍。
00:42
Just last month, NASA announced the discovery
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就在上個月，美國太空總署 (NASA)
宣佈其又發現了
宣佈其又發現了
00:44
of 517 new planets
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517 顆環繞近地恒星
00:46
in orbit around nearby stars,
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運行的行星，
00:48
almost doubling overnight the number of planets
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幾乎在一夜間使銀河系中
00:51
we know about within our galaxy.
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已知的行星數量翻了一倍。
00:53
So astronomy is constantly being transformed by this
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人類收集的資料資訊
為天文學的不斷進步
為天文學的不斷進步
00:56
capacity to collect data,
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注入了源源不斷的動力，
00:58
and with data almost doubling every year,
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而這些資料資訊幾乎
以每年翻一倍的速度增長，
以每年翻一倍的速度增長，
01:01
within the next two decades, me may even
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未來二十年內，人類甚至可以
01:02
reach the point for the first time in history
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首次實現有史以來的一個夢想：
01:05
where we've discovered the majority of the galaxies
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探索浩瀚宇宙中
01:08
within the universe.
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的大部分星系。
01:09
But as we enter this era of big data,
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但是，人類開闢的是一個大資料資訊的時代，
01:12
what we're beginning to find is there's a difference
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我們開始探究的是
01:14
between more data being just better
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資料資訊越多越好
01:17
and more data being different,
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與資料資訊越多差別越大，
兩者之間有何差異，
兩者之間有何差異，
01:19
capable of changing the questions we want to ask,
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這足以改變我們想問的一些問題，
01:22
and this difference is not about
how much data we collect,
how much data we collect,
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這個差異並不在於我們收集多少資料資訊，
01:25
it's whether those data open new windows
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而是，那些資料資訊是否可以
為人類開啟一扇通往深邃宇宙的窗戶，
為人類開啟一扇通往深邃宇宙的窗戶，
01:27
into our universe,
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01:28
whether they change the way we view the sky.
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那些資料資訊是否有助於
改變人類對觀測天空的方式。
改變人類對觀測天空的方式。
01:31
So what is the next window into our universe?
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下一扇通往宇宙的窗戶會有何奧秘呢？
01:34
What is the next chapter for astronomy?
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人類將如何譜寫天文學的下一個篇章？
01:37
Well, I'm going to show you some
of the tools and the technologies
of the tools and the technologies
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好，我會向諸位介紹一下
01:40
that we're going to develop over the next decade,
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未來十年內人類將開發的一些工具與技術，
01:42
and how these technologies,
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這些先進技術，連同人類
01:44
together with the smart use of data,
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在運用資料資訊上展現的聰明才智，
01:46
may once again transform astronomy
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將再一次開啟一扇通往宇宙的窗戶
01:49
by opening up a window into our universe,
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使天文學發生革命性的變化，
01:51
the window of time.
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時間之窗。
01:53
Why time? Well, time is about origins,
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為什麼是時間？好，時間與起源
01:55
and it's about evolution.
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和進化息息相關。
01:57
The origins of our solar system,
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太陽系的起源、
01:58
how our solar system came into being,
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太陽系是如何形成的、
02:01
is it unusual or special in any way?
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有什麼不同尋常或獨特之處嗎？
02:04
About the evolution of our universe.
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關於宇宙的演化。
02:06
Why our universe is continuing to expand,
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為什麼宇宙處於不斷的膨脹中？
02:09
and what is this mysterious dark energy
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促使宇宙膨脹的
02:11
that drives that expansion?
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神秘暗能量是什麼呢？
02:14
But first, I want to show you how technology
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首先，我要向諸位介紹科學技術
02:16
is going to change the way we view the sky.
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將有望改變人類對觀測天空的方式。
02:19
So imagine if you were sitting
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不妨設想一下，如果你在
02:21
in the mountains of northern Chile
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智利北部山區
02:23
looking out to the west
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仰望西天，
02:24
towards the Pacific Ocean
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面向太平洋方向，
02:26
a few hours before sunrise.
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就在日出前幾個小時。
02:29
This is the view of the night sky that you would see,
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這便是你將親眼目睹的夜空，
02:32
and it's a beautiful view,
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景色美麗動人，
02:34
with the Milky Way just peeking out over the horizon.
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銀河懸掛於天際。
02:37
but it's also a static view,
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但眼前是一幅靜止的美景，
02:39
and in many ways, this is the
way we think of our universe:
way we think of our universe:
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而很多時候這也正是
我們腦海中勾勒出的宇宙：
我們腦海中勾勒出的宇宙：
02:42
eternal and unchanging.
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永恆不滅且一成不變。
02:44
But the universe is anything but static.
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但宇宙絕不是靜止的。
02:46
It constantly changes on timescales of seconds
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宇宙處於永恆的變化中，
變化時間各不相同
變化時間各不相同
有短短幾秒，也有幾十億年。
02:48
to billions of years.
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02:50
Galaxies merge, they collide
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不同的星系
02:52
at hundreds of thousands of miles per hour.
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在以幾十萬英里的時速融合、碰撞。
02:55
Stars are born, they die,
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恒星不斷誕生，也不斷消亡，
02:57
they explode in these extravagant displays.
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這些絢麗多彩的畫面展示了恒星的爆炸。
03:00
In fact, if we could go back
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事實上，如果可以回到
03:01
to our tranquil skies above Chile,
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智利遙望寧靜的夜空，
03:04
and we allow time to move forward
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我們讓時間長河向前流淌
03:06
to see how the sky might change over the next year,
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一覽未來十年的天空，
會呈現出什麼模樣，
會呈現出什麼模樣，
03:11
the pulsations that you see
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你會觀察到宇宙的脈動
03:13
are supernovae, the final remnants of a dying star
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正是超新星，恒星在消亡中留下的殘餘，
03:17
exploding, brightening and then fading from view,
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爆炸、發出耀眼的光芒，
然後逐漸消失在視野中，
然後逐漸消失在視野中，
03:21
each one of these supernovae
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任何一顆超新星
03:23
five billion times the brightness of our sun,
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都比太陽亮上五十億倍，
03:26
so we can see them to great distances
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因此，人類在相當遙遠的地方
就能發現它們的蹤跡
就能發現它們的蹤跡
03:28
but only for a short amount of time.
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但其光芒轉瞬即逝。
03:31
Ten supernova per second explode somewhere
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宇宙中每一秒都會
有十顆超新星發生爆炸。
有十顆超新星發生爆炸。
03:33
in our universe.
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03:35
If we could hear it,
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如果我們可以聽見爆炸聲，
03:36
it would be popping like a bag of popcorn.
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會同一袋爆米花爆開的聲音一樣。
03:40
Now, if we fade out the supernovae,
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超新星的光芒逐漸暗淡，
03:43
it's not just brightness that changes.
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這不只是亮度的變化。
03:46
Our sky is in constant motion.
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天空處於永恆的運動之中。
03:49
This swarm of objects you
see streaming across the sky
see streaming across the sky
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你會看到大量天體源源不斷地掠過天空
03:52
are asteroids as they orbit our sun,
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這些是環繞太陽運行的小行星，
03:54
and it's these changes and the motion
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正是這些變化與運動
03:56
and it's the dynamics of the system
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以及天體系統的動態變化
03:59
that allow us to build our models for our universe,
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讓我們得以創建宇宙的模型，
04:01
to predict its future and to explain its past.
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便於我們解讀過去，展望未來。
04:05
But the telescopes we've used over the last decade
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然而，過去十年裡，我們使用的望遠鏡
04:08
are not designed to capture the data at this scale.
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其設計初衷並非用於
收集如此大規模的資料資訊。
收集如此大規模的資料資訊。
04:12
The Hubble Space Telescope:
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哈伯太空望遠鏡：
04:14
for the last 25 years it's been producing
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在過去二十五年內，
已為人類生成了部分宇宙深處
04:16
some of the most detailed views
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04:18
of our distant universe,
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最生動具體的畫面，
04:20
but if you tried to use the Hubble to create an image
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不過，若要使用哈伯太空望遠鏡
去還原一幅天空全景圖，
去還原一幅天空全景圖，
04:22
of the sky, it would take 13 million individual images,
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則需要彙聚 1300 萬個獨立的景象，
04:27
about 120 years to do this just once.
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即使一次也得歷時 120 年之久。
04:30
So this is driving us to new technologies
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面對這一形勢，我們必須開發新技術
04:33
and new telescopes,
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並建造全新的望遠鏡，
04:35
telescopes that can go faint
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這些望遠鏡不僅觀測距離更遠，
04:36
to look at the distant universe
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讓人類深入宇宙腹地。
04:38
but also telescopes that can go wide
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而且觀測視野更寬，
04:41
to capture the sky as rapidly as possible,
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可迅速拍攝天空中的一舉一動，
04:43
telescopes like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope,
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像大口徑全景巡天望遠鏡之類的望遠鏡
04:47
or the LSST,
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又稱為 LSST。
04:49
possibly the most boring name ever
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縱觀天文學歷史，
04:51
for one of the most fascinating experiments
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在所有最有趣的科學實驗中
04:53
in the history of astronomy,
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這個名稱算是最最無聊的，
04:55
in fact proof, if you should need it,
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事實上，你如果非得有個名稱，
04:57
that you should never allow
a scientist or an engineer
a scientist or an engineer
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那千萬別讓科學家或工程師來命名，
05:00
to name anything, not even your children.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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甚至不要讓他們為你的孩子起名字。（笑聲）
05:06
We're building the LSST.
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LSST 工程已開工建設。
05:07
We expect it to start taking data
by the end of this decade.
by the end of this decade.
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有望於2020年年底前開始收集資料資訊。
05:11
I'm going to show you how we think
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我將為諸位解讀一下我們的思維方式
05:12
it's going to transform
our views of the universe,
our views of the universe,
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這將轉變我們對宇宙的認識，
05:16
because one image from the LSST
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因為 LSST 拍攝的每個圖像
05:18
is equivalent to 3,000 images
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相當於哈伯太空望遠鏡拍攝的 3000 個圖像，
05:21
from the Hubble Space Telescope,
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05:23
each image three and a half degrees on the sky,
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LSST 的每個圖像覆蓋了天空中 3.5 度的區域，
05:26
seven times the width of the full moon.
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相當於七個滿月的寬度。
05:29
Well, how do you capture an image at this scale?
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如何拍攝這麼大的圖像呢？
05:31
Well, you build the largest digital camera in history,
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那就得製造有史以來最大的數位相機，
05:35
using the same technology you find
in the cameras in your cell phone
in the cameras in your cell phone
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採用的技術與你的手機鏡頭
05:38
or in the digital cameras you
can buy in the High Street,
can buy in the High Street,
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或在大街上購買的數位相機
採用的技術完全相同，
採用的技術完全相同，
05:42
but now at a scale that is five and a half feet across,
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而眼下這個數位相機的鏡頭
足足寬5.5英尺，
足足寬5.5英尺，
05:45
about the size of a Volkswagen Beetle,
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相當於一輛福斯金龜車的長度，
05:48
where one image is three billion pixels.
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這個鏡頭拍攝的每個圖像
有30億個圖元。
有30億個圖元。
05:51
So if you wanted to look at an image
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因此，如果你想一睹
LSST 全解析度圖像的風采，
LSST 全解析度圖像的風采，
05:52
in its full resolution, just a single LSST image,
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哪怕只是一個圖像，
05:55
it would take about 1,500
high-definition TV screens.
high-definition TV screens.
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也得用 1500 個高清電視螢幕。
06:00
And this camera will image the sky,
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這台相機將用於拍攝天空的全景，
06:03
taking a new picture every 20 seconds,
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每隔 20 秒鐘拍攝一張照片，
06:06
constantly scanning the sky
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永不停息地掃描天空。
06:08
so every three nights, we'll get a completely new view
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這樣只要三個夜晚，
我們就能掃描一次天空，
我們就能掃描一次天空，
06:11
of the skies above Chile.
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重新繪製一幅智利上空的天空全景圖。
06:13
Over the mission lifetime of this telescope,
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這台望遠鏡會在其生命週期內
06:16
it will detect 40 billion stars and galaxies,
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探測 400 億恒星與星系，
06:19
and that will be for the first time
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這也會是我們首次
06:21
we'll have detected more objects in our universe
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能探索的宇宙天體數量
06:24
than people on the Earth.
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超過地球上的人口數。
06:26
Now, we can talk about this
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目前，我們可以按
06:28
in terms of terabytes and petabytes
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百萬位元組與十億位元組，
通過研究數十億個天體
通過研究數十億個天體
06:30
and billions of objects,
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來解讀宇宙，
06:31
but a way to get a sense of the amount of data
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但如果想要親身感受一下
06:33
that will come off this camera
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這款相機收集的訊息量，
06:35
is that it's like playing every TED Talk ever recorded
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好比同時播放已錄製的每一個 TED 演講，
06:40
simultaneously, 24 hours a day,
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一天二十四小時，
06:43
seven days a week, for 10 years.
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一周七天不停地播放，可以長達連續十年。
06:46
And to process this data means
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若要處理這些資料資訊，則如同
06:48
searching through all of those talks
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在所有訪談節目中搜索
06:50
for every new idea and every new concept,
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每一個全新的觀點與理念，
06:52
looking at each part of the video
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關注影片中的每個細節。
06:54
to see how one frame may have changed
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查看每一幀內容
06:56
from the next.
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有何變化。
06:58
And this is changing the way that we do science,
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我們正在開闢一個科學研究的新紀元，
07:00
changing the way that we do astronomy,
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顛覆天文學研究的傳統模式，
07:02
to a place where software and algorithms
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在全新的模式下人們
將運用軟體技術與演算法則
將運用軟體技術與演算法則
07:05
have to mine through this data,
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挖掘隱藏在資料資訊中的無窮奧秘，
07:07
where the software is as critical to the science
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屆時軟體技術對科學研究至關重要，
07:10
as the telescopes and the
cameras that we've built.
cameras that we've built.
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其重要性並不亞於這些
尚未問世的望遠鏡與相機。
尚未問世的望遠鏡與相機。
07:14
Now, thousands of discoveries
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目前，這個專案將為人類
07:16
will come from this project,
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開啟成千上萬的探索發現之門，
07:18
but I'm just going to tell you about two
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但我今天只向諸位講述
07:20
of the ideas about origins and evolution
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有關起源與進化的兩個理念
07:22
that may be transformed by our access
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這兩個理念也會隨著人們
07:24
to data at this scale.
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對大規模資料資訊的研究而不斷發展。
07:27
In the last five years, NASA has discovered
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過去五年內，NASA 已在近地恒星
07:29
over 1,000 planetary systems
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附近發現了 1000 多個行星系，
07:32
around nearby stars,
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07:34
but the systems we're finding
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但我們力求探尋的這些行星系
07:36
aren't much like our own solar system,
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並不十分類似於我們的太陽系。
07:38
and one of the questions we face is
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我們面臨的一個問題是
07:40
is it just that we haven't been looking hard enough
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究竟是人類對宇宙的觀測還不夠全面，
07:42
or is there something special or unusual
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還是我們太陽系的起源
07:44
about how our solar system formed?
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本來就與眾不同？
07:46
And if we want to answer that question,
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如果我們要解答這一問題，
07:48
we have to know and understand
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就得深入瞭解
07:50
the history of our solar system in detail,
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太陽系的前世與今生，
07:53
and it's the details that are crucial.
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這些具體資訊十分重要。
07:55
So now, if we look back at the sky,
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因此，時下當我們仰望星空，
07:59
at our asteroids that were streaming across the sky,
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無數小行星掠過天際，
08:02
these asteroids are like the
debris of our solar system.
debris of our solar system.
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彷彿是太陽系中遺落的殘骸。
08:06
The positions of the asteroids
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小行星所處的位置
08:08
are like a fingerprint of an earlier time
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就像海王星與木星早期運行軌道，
08:10
when the orbits of Neptune and Jupiter
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離太陽更近的時候在
08:12
were much closer to the sun,
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宇宙中留下的指紋，
08:14
and as these giant planets migrated
through our solar system,
through our solar system,
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這些體積巨大的行星在太陽系中遷徙，
08:18
they were scattering the asteroids in their wake.
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一路遺落不計其數的小行星。
08:21
So studying the asteroids
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因此，探究小行星就像
08:22
is like performing forensics,
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在進行法醫鑒定，
08:25
performing forensics on our solar system,
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對整個太陽系的法醫鑒定。
08:27
but to do this, we need distance,
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但為此，我們需要距離，
08:30
and we get the distance from the motion,
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通過天體的運行，可以得知距離，
08:32
and we get the motion because of our access to time.
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而由於對時間掌握，
我們才瞭解了天體的運行。
我們才瞭解了天體的運行。
08:36
So what does this tell us?
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我們可以從中得到什麼啟示呢？
08:38
Well, if you look at the little yellow asteroids
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2227
你是否注意到一些黃色小行星
08:40
flitting across the screen,
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匆匆掠過螢幕，
08:43
these are the asteroids that are moving fastest,
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這些小行星的運行速度很快，
08:45
because they're closest to us, closest to Earth.
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是因為它們距離地球最近。
08:48
These are the asteroids we may one day
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有朝一日人類或許會派
太空船造訪這些行星
太空船造訪這些行星
08:50
send spacecraft to, to mine them for minerals,
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開發上面的礦產資源，
08:53
but they're also the asteroids that may one day
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2002
但這些小行星或許會在未來的某一天
08:55
impact the Earth,
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撞擊地球，
08:57
like happened 60 million years ago
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就像 6000 萬年前的那次撞擊
08:58
with the extinction of the dinosaurs,
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造成了恐龍的滅絕，
09:01
or just at the beginning of the last century,
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1822
也像上世紀初葉
09:03
when an asteroid wiped out
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一顆小行星徑直墜落於西伯利亞，
09:04
almost 1,000 square miles of Siberian forest,
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1000 平方英里的森林頓時化為烏有，
09:08
or even just last year, as one burnt up over Russia,
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3088
甚至就在去年，有一顆小行星
在俄羅斯上空的大氣層內燒毀，
在俄羅斯上空的大氣層內燒毀，
09:11
releasing the energy of a small nuclear bomb.
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釋放的能量相當於一個小型核彈。
09:14
So studying the forensics of our solar system
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因此，對太陽系進行法醫鑒定
09:18
doesn't just tell us about the past,
218
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不只能讓我們瞭解過去，
09:20
it can also predict the future,
including our future.
including our future.
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3811
更可以展望未來，包括人類自身的未來。
09:26
Now when we get distance,
220
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眼下只要我們得知距離，
09:28
we get to see the asteroids
in their natural habitat,
in their natural habitat,
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就能觀察到小行星以其自然的方式，
09:32
in orbit around the sun.
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環繞太陽運行。
09:33
So every point in this visualization that you can see
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所以，諸位在這幅景象中
看到的每一個亮點
看到的每一個亮點
09:36
is a real asteroid.
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都是一顆真實的小行星。
09:39
Its orbit has been calculated
from its motion across the sky.
from its motion across the sky.
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憑藉這顆小行星在空中的運行狀況，
就能計算出其運行軌跡。
就能計算出其運行軌跡。
09:43
The colors reflect the composition of these asteroids,
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這些小行星的顏色顯示了其組成物質，
09:46
dry and stony in the center,
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中心部分是乾燥的岩石，
09:48
water-rich and primitive towards the edge,
228
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2587
而表面卻粗糙不平，富含水分，
09:51
water-rich asteroids which may have seeded
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2284
含水量較高的小新星上可能會有
09:53
the oceans and the seas that we find on our planet
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和地球上一模一樣的海洋，
09:57
when they bombarded the
Earth at an earlier time.
Earth at an earlier time.
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地球上的海洋正是小行星
早年撞擊地球後留下的。
早年撞擊地球後留下的。
10:02
Because the LSST will be able to go faint
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由於 LSST 不僅觀察視野更寬，
10:04
and not just wide,
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而且探測距離更遠。
10:06
we will be able to see these asteroids
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我們將在遠離太陽系中心的區域
10:08
far beyond the inner part of our solar system,
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一窺這些小行星的身影，
10:11
to asteroids beyond the
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
orbits of Neptune and Mars,
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觀察木星與火星軌道之外的小行星，
10:15
to comets and asteroids that may exist
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跟蹤距離太陽
10:17
almost a light year from our sun.
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幾乎一光年之遙的彗星與小行星。
10:20
And as we increase the detail of this picture,
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我們會更加詳細地解讀這些照片
10:23
increasing the detail by factors of 10 to 100,
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將解讀細節從 10 個提高到 100 個，
10:26
we will be able to answer questions such as,
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就能找到一些問題的答案，例如
10:29
is there evidence for planets
outside the orbit of Neptune,
outside the orbit of Neptune,
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是否有證據顯示木星軌道之外還存在行星，
10:32
to find Earth-impacting asteroids
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在可能撞擊地球的小行星威脅地球之前很久
10:35
long before they're a danger,
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便鎖定它們的行蹤，
10:37
and to find out whether, maybe,
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並解答太陽只有一個
10:39
our sun formed on its own or in a cluster of stars,
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還是宇宙中存在一大把這樣的恒星，
10:42
and maybe it's this sun's stellar siblings
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或許正是太陽的姊妹星
10:45
that influenced the formation of our solar system,
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3442
對太陽系的形成產生了巨大的影響，
10:49
and maybe that's one of the reasons why
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
solar systems like ours seem to be so rare.
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或許這正是太陽系在宇宙中
如此罕見的原因之一。
如此罕見的原因之一。
10:54
Now, distance and changes in our universe —
250
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宇宙中的距離與變化，
10:59
distance equates to time,
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距離等於時間，
11:03
as well as changes on the sky.
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2059
以及天空中的變化。
11:05
Every foot of distance you look away,
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2790
你的目光每延伸一英尺
11:08
or every foot of distance an object is away,
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2485
或某一個天體運行每一英尺，
11:10
you're looking back about a
billionth of a second in time,
billionth of a second in time,
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3589
其實在諸位眼睛中留下的景象
是之前十億分之一秒發生的事情，
是之前十億分之一秒發生的事情，
11:14
and this idea or this notion of looking back in time
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2613
眺望宇宙就是眺望過去的時光
11:16
has revolutionized our ideas about the universe,
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2631
這個觀點或概念讓我們
對宇宙的認識發生了革命性的變化，
對宇宙的認識發生了革命性的變化，
11:19
not once but multiple times.
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2280
這種變化不止一次，而是多次。
11:21
The first time was in 1929,
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2812
第一次發生在 1929 年，
11:24
when an astronomer called Edwin Hubble
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2092
一位名叫愛德文·哈伯的天文學家
11:26
showed that the universe was expanding,
261
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2249
指出宇宙處在不斷的膨脹中，
11:28
leading to the ideas of the Big Bang.
262
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2713
形成了宇宙大爆炸觀點。
11:31
And the observations were simple:
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2582
觀察結果非常簡單：
11:34
just 24 galaxies
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2154
只有 24 個星系
11:36
and a hand-drawn picture.
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3050
和一張手工繪製的圖片。
11:41
But just the idea that the more distant a galaxy,
266
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4660
但星系的距離越遠，
11:45
the faster it was receding,
267
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2070
它遠離我們的速度就越快，
11:47
was enough to give rise to modern cosmology.
268
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3419
這一觀點足以促成現代宇宙學的誕生。
11:51
A second revolution happened 70 years later,
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2425
第二次革命發生在 70 年後，
11:53
when two groups of astronomers showed
270
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2072
兩組天文學家指出
11:55
that the universe wasn't just expanding,
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2433
宇宙不僅在不斷地膨脹，
11:58
it was accelerating,
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1325
而且正在加速膨脹。
11:59
a surprise like throwing up a ball into the sky
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3343
這個觀點令人驚訝，
好比將一個球拋到空中，
好比將一個球拋到空中，
12:02
and finding out the higher that it gets,
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2812
你會發現這個球離地面越高，
12:05
the faster it moves away.
275
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1778
飛行的速度也越快。
12:07
And they showed this
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1509
他們展示研究結果的方法是
12:08
by measuring the brightness of supernovae,
277
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2405
通過測量超新星的亮度，
12:11
and how the brightness of the supernovae
278
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1834
和超新星的亮度
12:13
got fainter with distance.
279
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2171
如何隨著距離增加而不斷減弱。
12:15
And these observations were more complex.
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2453
這些觀察結果更加複雜。
12:17
They required new technologies and new telescopes,
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3014
於是新技術與全新的望遠鏡呼之欲出，
12:20
because the supernovae were in galaxies
282
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4050
由於超新星存在於一些星系中
12:24
that were 2,000 times more distant
283
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1958
而這些星系比哈伯望遠鏡
12:26
than the ones used by Hubble.
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2688
拍攝到的星系還要遠 2000 倍。
12:29
And it took three years to find just 42 supernovae,
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5311
經過三年鍥而不捨的觀察，
只發現了 42 顆超新星，
只發現了 42 顆超新星，
12:34
because a supernova only explodes
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1754
由於一個星系中的超新星
12:36
once every hundred years within a galaxy.
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3082
幾百年中才爆炸一次。
12:39
Three years to find 42 supernovae
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2284
整整三年才發現了 42 顆超新星，
12:41
by searching through tens of thousands of galaxies.
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4019
搜索了成千上萬個星系。
12:45
And once they'd collected their data,
290
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1851
收集了這些資料資訊，
12:47
this is what they found.
291
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3748
這是他們發現的。
12:51
Now, this may not look impressive,
292
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2711
這一研究成果可能看上去不起眼，
12:54
but this is what a revolution in physics looks like:
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但可以堪稱物理學上的一次革命：
12:58
a line predicting the brightness of a supernova
294
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2430
這條直線預測距離地球
110 億光年之遙的超新星亮度，
110 億光年之遙的超新星亮度，
13:00
11 billion light years away,
295
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2046
13:02
and a handful of points that don't quite fit that line.
296
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3796
一些小點與這條直線並不十分吻合。
13:06
Small changes give rise to big consequences.
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4113
細微的變化往往會催生重大結果。
13:10
Small changes allow us to make discoveries,
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2948
細微的變化讓我們實現突破，探索發現，
13:13
like the planet found by Herschel.
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2823
就像赫歇爾當年發現天王星一樣。
13:16
Small changes turn our understanding
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2272
細微的變化顛覆了
13:18
of the universe on its head.
301
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2401
我們對浩瀚宇宙的理解。
13:21
So 42 supernovae, slightly too faint,
302
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3464
因此，42 顆超新星，十分昏暗，
13:24
meaning slightly further away,
303
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2009
可見其距離地球稍遠，
13:26
requiring that a universe must not just be expanding,
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3160
由此可推斷宇宙肯定不只是在膨脹，
13:29
but this expansion must be accelerating,
305
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3330
而是在加速膨脹。
13:33
revealing a component of our universe
306
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1946
揭示了宇宙的一個組成部分
13:35
which we now call dark energy,
307
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2486
就是我們目前所稱的暗能量，
13:37
a component that drives this expansion
308
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2509
正是暗能量在加速宇宙的膨脹，
13:40
and makes up 68 percent of the energy budget
309
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3027
已知宇宙中的能量預計有68%為暗能量。
13:43
of our universe today.
310
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2035
13:46
So what is the next revolution likely to be?
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下一次革命可能會發生在哪個領域？
13:50
Well, what is dark energy and why does it exist?
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暗能量是什麼，暗能量為什麼會存在？
13:53
Each of these lines shows a different model
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每一條直線為我們展現了
一種不同的暗能量可能存在的模式
13:55
for what dark energy might be,
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13:58
showing the properties of dark energy.
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揭示了暗能量的各種屬性。
14:00
They all are consistent with the 42 points,
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已發現的 42 個亮點完全符合這些屬性，
14:04
but the ideas behind these lines
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但隱藏在這些直線背後的理念
14:06
are dramatically different.
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則截然不同。
14:08
Some people think about a dark energy
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有人設想暗能量
14:11
that changes with time,
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隨著時間的流逝而變化，
14:12
or whether the properties of the dark energy
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或是暗能量的屬性是否不同，
14:15
are different depending on where you look on the sky.
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取決於你觀察天空時所處的地點。
14:17
Others make differences and changes
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其他人則在亞原子的層面
14:19
to the physics at the sub-atomic level.
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釐定物理學上的差異與變化。
14:22
Or, they look at large scales
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或者，他們關注
14:25
and change how gravity and general relativity work,
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重力與廣義相對論作用的規模與變化，
14:29
or they say our universe is just one of many,
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或他們覺得我們的宇宙只是
這個神秘莫測的多元宇宙中的一部分而已，
14:31
part of this mysterious multiverse,
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14:34
but all of these ideas, all of these theories,
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但是所有這些觀點、理論
14:37
amazing and admittedly some of them a little crazy,
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非常不可思議，毋庸置疑
其中一些稍稍有些瘋狂，
其中一些稍稍有些瘋狂，
14:41
but all of them consistent with our 42 points.
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但所有這些觀點與理論
都於我們發現的 42 個亮點相互印證。
都於我們發現的 42 個亮點相互印證。
14:45
So how can we hope to make sense of this
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因此，我們如何在未來十年內
14:47
over the next decade?
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理解其中的奧秘？
14:49
Well, imagine if I gave you a pair of dice,
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設想一下，如果給你兩個骰子，
14:52
and I said you wanted to see whether those dice
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我問你如何知道這兩個骰子
14:54
were loaded or fair.
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是不是被人做了手腳。
14:56
One roll of the dice would tell you very little,
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只投一次骰子，你得不出什麼結論，
14:59
but the more times you rolled them,
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但多投幾次，
15:01
the more data you collected,
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積攢起數據，
15:03
the more confident you would become,
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就會對自己更有信心，
15:05
not just whether they're loaded or fair,
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不僅知道這些骰子
有沒有被人做過手腳，
有沒有被人做過手腳，
15:08
but by how much, and in what way.
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而且還知道做了多少手腳，
而且怎麼做的。
而且怎麼做的。
15:12
It took three years to find just 42 supernovae
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我們歷時整整三年
才發現了 42 個超新星，
才發現了 42 個超新星，
15:16
because the telescopes that we built
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因為我們已建造的望遠鏡
15:19
could only survey a small part of the sky.
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只能探索天空中的很小一部分。
15:22
With the LSST, we get a completely new view
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有了 LSST，每三個夜晚我們就可以觀察到
15:25
of the skies above Chile every three nights.
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智利上空的一個全新景象。
15:29
In its first night of operation,
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觀測的第一個夜晚，
15:31
it will find 10 times the number of supernovae
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發現的超新星的數量，
就會是當初發現暗能量時
就會是當初發現暗能量時
15:34
used in the discovery of dark energy.
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所用的超新星數量的整整十倍。
15:37
This will increase by 1,000
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最初的四個月內的觀測數字將提升 1000：
15:39
within the first four months:
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2493
15:42
1.5 million supernovae by the end of its survey,
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這次觀察後會發現 150 萬顆超新星，
15:46
each supernova a roll of the dice,
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每一顆超新星就像投一次骰子
15:50
each supernova testing which theories of dark energy
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每一個超新星測試哪些暗能量理論吻合，
15:53
are consistent, and which ones are not.
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哪些不吻合。
15:57
And so, by combining these supernova data
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所以，這些超新星資料資訊會
16:01
with other measures of cosmology,
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與宇宙學的其他措施相結合，
16:03
we'll progressively rule out the different ideas
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我們會逐步篩除
不同的暗能量觀點與理論，
16:06
and theories of dark energy
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1976
16:08
until hopefully at the end of this survey around 2030,
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此次觀察有望在 2030 年左右結束，
16:15
we would expect to hopefully see
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我們希望屆時發現
16:18
a theory for our universe,
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一種宇宙理論，
16:20
a fundamental theory for the physics of our universe,
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一種宇宙物理的基本理論
16:23
to gradually emerge.
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漸漸顯出雛形。
16:26
Now, in many ways, the questions that I posed
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我在許多領域提出過一些問題
16:29
are in reality the simplest of questions.
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實際上都是最簡單的問題。
16:33
We may not know the answers,
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但答案至今無從知曉，
16:35
but we at least know how to ask the questions.
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但我們至少知道該如何提問。
16:39
But if looking through tens of thousands of galaxies
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但是如果縱觀成千上萬個星系
16:42
revealed 42 supernovae that turned
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結果只發現了 42 顆超新星，
16:45
our understanding of the universe on its head,
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足以轉變我們對茫茫宇宙的理解，
16:48
when we're working with billions of galaxies,
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當我們專注於研究數十億星系，
16:51
how many more times are we going to find
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我們費盡周折只發現了 42 個亮點，
這顯然不符合我們的期望值，
這顯然不符合我們的期望值，
16:53
42 points that don't quite match what we expect?
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但這樣事倍功半的事情還會發生多少次呢？
16:59
Like the planet found by Herschel
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就像赫歇爾發現天王星
17:01
or dark energy
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或暗能量，
17:04
or quantum mechanics or general relativity,
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3843
或量子力學或廣義相對論，
17:08
all ideas that came because the data
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這些理論的產生，都是因為資訊
17:10
didn't quite match what we expected.
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並不符合我們的期望，
17:13
What's so exciting about the next decade of data
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天文學資訊的下一個十年
17:17
in astronomy is,
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激動人心的一面正是
17:18
we don't even know how many answers
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我們甚至不知道會有多少問題
17:21
are out there waiting,
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等待著我們去解答，
17:22
answers about our origins and our evolution.
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這些解答關乎宇宙起源與演化。
17:26
How many answers are out there
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還有多少解答已經擺在面前，
17:27
that we don't even know the questions
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但我們甚至不知道
17:31
that we want to ask?
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要問些什麼？
17:33
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:35
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew Connolly - AstronomerAndrew Connolly is helping to build the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope -- as well as tools to handle the massive datasets it will send our way.
Why you should listen
Andrew Connolly's research focuses on understanding the evolution of our universe, by studying how structure forms and evolves on small and large scales -- from the search for asteroids to the clustering of distant galaxies. He's a ten-year veteran of the Large Synoptic Sky Survey, and is now prepping for the unprecedented data streams we could expect from the under-construction Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
Set on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
More profile about the speakerSet on an 8,800-foot peak in northern Chile, the LSST will have an 8.4-meter primary mirror, a 10-square-degree field of view and a 3.2 gigapixel camera. It will survey half the sky every three nights, creating about 100 terabytes of data every week. Astronomers, Connolly suggests, will need wholly new tools to wrangle this amount of data -- so he has been helping bring together computer scientists, statisticians and astronomers to develop scalable algorithms for processing massive data streams.
On sabbatical from the University of Washington, Connolly led the development of Google Sky, and he's now working with Microsoft to develop affordable digital planetariums.
Andrew Connolly | Speaker | TED.com