TED@UPS
David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work
大卫·李: 为什么未来的工作不会让人觉得是在工作
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Readability: 4.2
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我们都听说过机器人会取代我们的工作——但我们究竟要如何应对呢？革新专家大卫·李说，我们应该开始设计和挖掘隐藏了我们天赋和热情的工作——那些我们会用周末来做的事，从而让我们在机器人时代仍具有价值。“开始询问他们想解决什么样的问题，以及他们想把什么天赋带到工作中，”李说，“当你邀请人们施展才华时，他们展现的潜能会让我们感到惊讶。”
David Lee - Innovation leader
UPS’s David Lee works to create platforms that make it easier for people to turn fuzzy ideas into concrete solutions. Full bio
UPS’s David Lee works to create platforms that make it easier for people to turn fuzzy ideas into concrete solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So there's a lot of valid
concern these days
concern these days
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当今有许多实实在在的担心
00:15
that our technology is getting so smart
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技术正在变得如此智能
00:17
that we've put ourselves
on the path to a jobless future.
on the path to a jobless future.
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我们几乎是在把自己引向失业
00:21
And I think the example
of a self-driving car
of a self-driving car
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自动驾驶汽车
是其中最浅显的一个例子
00:23
is actually the easiest one to see.
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不管怎样 自动驾驶都是非常棒的事情
00:25
So these are going to be fantastic
for all kinds of different reasons.
for all kinds of different reasons.
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00:28
But did you know that "driver"
is actually the most common job
is actually the most common job
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但你是否知道
在美国50个州其中的29个
在美国50个州其中的29个
司机都是最普遍的职业
00:32
in 29 of the 50 US states?
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00:35
What's going to happen to these jobs
when we're no longer driving our cars
when we're no longer driving our cars
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当我们不再需要司机驾驶汽车
也不需要人来烹饪食物
也不需要人来烹饪食物
甚至不需要医生来诊断疾病
00:38
or cooking our food
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这些工作岗位将何去何从呢
00:39
or even diagnosing our own diseases?
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00:42
Well, a recent study
from Forrester Research
from Forrester Research
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一个来自弗雷斯特研究的最新研究
00:45
goes so far to predict
that 25 million jobs
that 25 million jobs
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甚至预计有两千五百万个工作
00:48
might disappear over the next 10 years.
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可能会在接下来的十年内消失
00:51
To put that in perspective,
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换个方式说
00:52
that's three times as many jobs lost
in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
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这相当于金融危机之后
消失的职业数量的三倍
消失的职业数量的三倍
00:58
And it's not just blue-collar jobs
that are at risk.
that are at risk.
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而且不只是蓝领职业有消失的危险
01:01
On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley,
we are seeing tremendous gains
we are seeing tremendous gains
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放眼整个华尔街和硅谷
机器学习在
机器学习在
分析和决策中的应用
01:05
in the quality of analysis
and decision-making
and decision-making
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01:07
because of machine learning.
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均取得了巨大的成就
01:09
So even the smartest, highest-paid people
will be affected by this change.
will be affected by this change.
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即便是最聪明 最高薪的人
也会被这个改变所影响
也会被这个改变所影响
01:13
What's clear is that no matter
what your job is,
what your job is,
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很明显的是无论你的职业是什么
01:16
at least some, if not all of your work,
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即便不是全部 也会有一部分
01:18
is going to be done by a robot
or software in the next few years.
or software in the next few years.
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会在接下来的几年里
被机器人或软件所取代
被机器人或软件所取代
01:22
And that's exactly why people
like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates
like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates
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而这恰恰是像马克·扎克伯格
和比尔·盖茨这样的人
和比尔·盖茨这样的人
在讨论政府需要保障人们
最低收入水平的原因
最低收入水平的原因
01:26
are talking about the need for
government-funded minimum income levels.
government-funded minimum income levels.
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01:29
But if our politicians can't agree
on things like health care
on things like health care
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但如果政客们连医保
学校午餐之类的事情
学校午餐之类的事情
01:32
or even school lunches,
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都无法达成一致
01:34
I just don't see a path
where they'll find consensus
where they'll find consensus
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我不觉得他们能在这样
巨大且昂贵的全民基本
生活保障的事情上达成一致
生活保障的事情上达成一致
01:36
on something as big and as expensive
as universal basic life income.
as universal basic life income.
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01:40
Instead, I think the response
needs to be led by us in industry.
needs to be led by us in industry.
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反而我认为应该由
我们行业自身的人去引导
我们行业自身的人去引导
01:44
We have to recognize
the change that's ahead of us
the change that's ahead of us
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我们要意识到前方的变化
01:46
and start to design the new kinds of jobs
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并着手设计新的工作形式
01:48
that will still be relevant
in the age of robotics.
in the age of robotics.
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使其在机器时代仍具有意义
01:52
The good news is that we have
faced down and recovered
faced down and recovered
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好消息是我们之前经历过
01:55
two mass extinctions of jobs before.
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两次大的失业潮和经济复苏
01:58
From 1870 to 1970,
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1870年到1970年间
02:00
the percent of American workers
based on farms fell by 90 percent,
based on farms fell by 90 percent,
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在农场工作的美国工人
数量下降了90%
数量下降了90%
02:05
and then again from 1950 to 2010,
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而从1950年到2010年
02:07
the percent of Americans
working in factories
working in factories
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在工厂里的美国工人数量
02:09
fell by 75 percent.
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下降了75%
02:12
The challenge we face this time,
however, is one of time.
however, is one of time.
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而我们这次面临的挑战是“时间”
02:15
We had a hundred years
to move from farms to factories,
to move from farms to factories,
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我们有100年的时间从农场转向工厂
02:18
and then 60 years to fully build out
a service economy.
a service economy.
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又花了60年去建设服务业经济
02:21
The rate of change today
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如今的变化速度
意味着我们只有10到15年来调整
02:23
suggests that we may only have
10 or 15 years to adjust,
10 or 15 years to adjust,
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02:26
and if we don't react fast enough,
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如果我们不尽快作出反应
02:27
that means by the time
today's elementary-school students
today's elementary-school students
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那就意味着当今天的小学生
02:30
are college-aged,
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上大学的时候
02:32
we could be living
in a world that's robotic,
in a world that's robotic,
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我们就会生活在一个充斥着机器人
02:34
largely unemployed and stuck
in kind of un-great depression.
in kind of un-great depression.
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并伴随大量失业人群的萧条世界里了
02:39
But I don't think it has to be this way.
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但我不认为这样的结果是注定的
我的工作是革新
02:41
You see, I work in innovation,
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02:43
and part of my job is to shape how
large companies apply new technologies.
large companies apply new technologies.
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我的部分工作是帮助
大公司应用新的技术
大公司应用新的技术
02:48
Certainly some of these technologies
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而其中有些技术
就是专门设计来取代人类工作者
02:50
are even specifically designed
to replace human workers.
to replace human workers.
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02:53
But I believe that if we start
taking steps right now
taking steps right now
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但是我相信如果我们现在开始着手
02:56
to change the nature of work,
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去改变工作的本质
02:58
we can not only create environments
where people love coming to work
where people love coming to work
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我们不仅可以创造
人们所热爱的工作环境
人们所热爱的工作环境
03:02
but also generate
the innovation that we need
the innovation that we need
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而且还可以产生我们所需要的创新
来代替终将流失于技术的数百万职业
03:04
to replace the millions of jobs
that will be lost to technology.
that will be lost to technology.
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03:08
I believe that the key
to preventing our jobless future
to preventing our jobless future
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我认为预防我们未来失业的关键在于
重新发现人类自身
03:12
is to rediscover what makes us human,
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03:14
and to create a new generation
of human-centered jobs
of human-centered jobs
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并创造新一代的以人为本的职业
03:17
that allow us to unlock
the hidden talents and passions
the hidden talents and passions
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来释放人类身上
03:20
that we carry with us every day.
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隐藏的天赋和激情
03:24
But first, I think
it's important to recognize
it's important to recognize
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但首先我认为很重要的
是需要认识到
是需要认识到
问题是我们自己造成的
03:26
that we brought this problem on ourselves.
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03:28
And it's not just because, you know,
we are the one building the robots.
we are the one building the robots.
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不仅仅是因为我们创造了机器人
03:32
But even though most jobs
left the factory decades ago,
left the factory decades ago,
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尽管几十年间很多工作
就已经与工厂无关
就已经与工厂无关
03:35
we still hold on to this factory mindset
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我们却仍然固守着工厂
03:37
of standardization and de-skilling.
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那种去技能化的标准化思维
03:40
We still define jobs
around procedural tasks
around procedural tasks
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我们仍围绕程序化的任务来定义工作
03:42
and then pay people for the number
of hours that they perform these tasks.
of hours that they perform these tasks.
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然后按照人们执行任务的
小时数付他们薪水
小时数付他们薪水
我们创造了狭隘的工作定义
03:46
We've created narrow job definitions
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03:48
like cashier, loan processor
or taxi driver
or taxi driver
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比如收银员 贷款业务员 出租车司机
03:51
and then asked people
to form entire careers
to form entire careers
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然后让人们围着这些单调的任务
03:53
around these singular tasks.
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去打造整个职业生涯
03:56
These choices have left us with
actually two dangerous side effects.
actually two dangerous side effects.
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这些选择事实上带给
我们两个危险的副作用
我们两个危险的副作用
03:59
The first is that these
narrowly defined jobs
narrowly defined jobs
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首先 这些被狭隘定义的工作
04:02
will be the first
to be displaced by robots,
to be displaced by robots,
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会最先被机器人替代
04:05
because single-task robots
are just the easiest kinds to build.
are just the easiest kinds to build.
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因为单任务的机器人是最容易制造的
04:08
But second, we have accidentally made it
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其次 这种不经意间的选择
04:11
so that millions of workers
around the world
around the world
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让全世界成千上万的人
04:13
have unbelievably boring working lives.
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从事着难以置信的无聊工作
04:16
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:18
Let's take the example
of a call center agent.
of a call center agent.
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我们来看个呼叫中心客服的例子
过去的几十年间
我们夸耀着更低的运行费用
我们夸耀着更低的运行费用
04:20
Over the last few decades,
we brag about lower operating costs
we brag about lower operating costs
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因为我们把对脑力的大部分要求
04:23
because we've taken most
of the need for brainpower
of the need for brainpower
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从人身上拿出来放进了应答系统中
04:26
out of the person
and put it into the system.
and put it into the system.
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所以在一天的大多数时间里
他们只是在点击着屏幕
他们只是在点击着屏幕
04:28
For most of their day,
they click on screens,
they click on screens,
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04:31
they read scripts.
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念念稿子
04:33
They act more like machines than humans.
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行为模式更像机器而不是人类
04:37
And unfortunately,
over the next few years,
over the next few years,
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而且不幸的是 在接下来的几年里
随着我们的技术变得更加先进
04:39
as our technology gets more advanced,
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04:41
they, along with people
like clerks and bookkeepers,
like clerks and bookkeepers,
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他们以及诸如书记员和
簿记员那样的人
簿记员那样的人
04:43
will see the vast majority
of their work disappear.
of their work disappear.
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将会面临大量工作机会的丧失
04:47
To counteract this,
we have to start creating new jobs
we have to start creating new jobs
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要应对这点 我们必须开始创造新的职业
04:50
that are less centered
on the tasks that a person does
on the tasks that a person does
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那种不那么以人的任务为中心
04:52
and more focused on the skills
that a person brings to work.
that a person brings to work.
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而是更集中在人的
工作技巧层面的职业
工作技巧层面的职业
04:56
For example, robots are great
at repetitive and constrained work,
at repetitive and constrained work,
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比如机器更适合重复性和受限的工作
04:59
but human beings have an amazing ability
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但是人类具有不可思议的
富有创造力的能力
05:01
to bring together
capability with creativity
capability with creativity
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05:04
when faced with problems
that we've never seen before.
that we've never seen before.
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去应对那些从未遇到的新问题
05:07
It's when every day
brings a little bit of a surprise
brings a little bit of a surprise
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当我们给人类而非机器人
05:10
that we have designed work for humans
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设计工作时 每天都可以
05:12
and not for robots.
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带来一点惊喜
05:14
Our entrepreneurs and engineers
already live in this world,
already live in this world,
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我们的企业家和工程师
早已经出现在这个世上
早已经出现在这个世上
05:17
but so do our nurses and our plumbers
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我们的护士和水管工
05:19
and our therapists.
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心理咨询师也同样如此
05:21
You know, it's the nature
of too many companies and organizations
of too many companies and organizations
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如今太多的公司和组织
05:24
to just ask people to come to work
and do your job.
and do your job.
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只是让人们来上个班做个工作
05:28
But if you work is better done by a robot,
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但如果你的工作
机器人可以完成得更好
机器人可以完成得更好
05:30
or your decisions better made by an AI,
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或者机器人做决定都比你强
05:33
what are you supposed to be doing?
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你还能做什么呢
05:36
Well, I think for the manager,
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我认为对于管理者而言
05:38
we need to realistically think about
the tasks that will be disappearing
the tasks that will be disappearing
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我们需要现实地思考一下
在接下来几年里
在接下来几年里
会消失的任务
05:41
over the next few years
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并且开始计划用更有意义
更有价值的工作去替代它们
更有价值的工作去替代它们
05:43
and start planning for more meaningful,
more valuable work that should replace it.
more valuable work that should replace it.
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05:47
We need to create environments
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我们需要创造环境
人类和机器人都可以共同成长的环境
05:48
where both human beings and robots thrive.
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05:50
I say, let's give more work to the robots,
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让我们给机器人更多的工作
05:53
and let's start with the work
that we absolutely hate doing.
that we absolutely hate doing.
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就从最讨厌做的工作开始
05:57
Here, robot,
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嘿 机器人
处理掉这个愚蠢的报道
05:58
process this painfully idiotic report.
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06:00
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
再搬走这个盒子 谢谢
06:01
And move this box. Thank you.
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06:03
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:05
And for the human beings,
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对于人类自身
06:06
we should follow the advice from Harry
Davis at the University of Chicago.
Davis at the University of Chicago.
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我们应该遵从芝加哥大学
哈利·戴维斯的建议
哈利·戴维斯的建议
他说我们需要做到让人们不把自己
06:10
He says we have to make it so that people
don't leave too much of themselves
don't leave too much of themselves
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放在他们的后备箱中
06:13
in the trunk of their car.
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我的意思是
人们在周末会变得非常厉害
人们在周末会变得非常厉害
06:15
I mean, human beings
are amazing on weekends.
are amazing on weekends.
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想一想你认识的人
以及他们在周六做的事
以及他们在周六做的事
06:18
Think about the people that you know
and what they do on Saturdays.
and what they do on Saturdays.
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他们是艺术家 木匠 厨师 运动员
06:21
They're artists, carpenters,
chefs and athletes.
chefs and athletes.
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06:25
But on Monday, they're back
to being Junior HR Specialist
to being Junior HR Specialist
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但是在周一 他们又变成了HR菜鸟
或3号系统分析员
06:29
and Systems Analyst 3.
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06:31
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:34
You know, these narrow job titles
not only sound boring,
not only sound boring,
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这些狭隘的职业名称不仅听上去很无趣
它们其实还潜移默化鼓动人们
06:38
but they're actually
a subtle encouragement
a subtle encouragement
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去为狭隘和无聊的职业奉献
06:40
for people to make narrow
and boring job contributions.
and boring job contributions.
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06:43
But I've seen firsthand
that when you invite people to be more,
that when you invite people to be more,
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我已经见识过了
当你邀请人们做得更多时
当你邀请人们做得更多时
他们却能让我们刮目相看
06:46
they can amaze us
with how much more they can be.
with how much more they can be.
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06:50
A few years ago,
I was working at a large bank
I was working at a large bank
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几年前 我在一个大银行工作
并试着把更多的创新
带进它的公司文化中
带进它的公司文化中
06:52
that was trying to bring more innovation
into its company culture.
into its company culture.
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我和我的团队设计了一个模型比赛
06:55
So my team and I designed
a prototyping contest
a prototyping contest
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邀请每一个人来建造
任何他们想建造的东西
任何他们想建造的东西
06:58
that invited anyone to build
anything that they wanted.
anything that they wanted.
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07:01
We were actually trying to figure out
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我们其实在试着找出
限制创新的主要原因究竟是
07:03
whether or not
the primary limiter to innovation
the primary limiter to innovation
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缺少想法还是缺少天赋
07:05
was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,
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结果两者都不是
07:08
and it turns out it was neither one.
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这是一个关于授权的问题
07:10
It was an empowerment problem.
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07:12
And the results
of the program were amazing.
of the program were amazing.
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这个项目的结果非常惊人
07:16
We started by inviting
people to reenvision
people to reenvision
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我们起初邀请人们来重新构想
07:18
what it is they could bring to a team.
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他们能给团队带来的东西
07:20
This contest was not only a chance
to build anything that you wanted
to build anything that you wanted
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这个比赛不仅是一个
天马行空去创造的事情
天马行空去创造的事情
07:24
but also be anything that you wanted.
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也是一个做你自己的机会
当人们不再被他们
每天的工作头衔所限制时
每天的工作头衔所限制时
07:27
And when people were no longer
limited by their day-to-day job titles,
limited by their day-to-day job titles,
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他们会尽情的把
各种不同的技能和天赋
各种不同的技能和天赋
07:30
they felt free to bring all kinds
of different skills and talents
of different skills and talents
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应用到尝试要解决的问题中去
07:33
to the problems
that they were trying to solve.
that they were trying to solve.
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我们看见技术人员成为设计师
营销人员变成建筑师
营销人员变成建筑师
07:36
We saw technology people being designers,
marketing people being architects,
marketing people being architects,
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07:39
and even finance people showing off
their ability to write jokes.
their ability to write jokes.
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金融人员化身为段子手
07:43
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:44
We ran this program twice,
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我们运作了这个项目两次
而每一次都有400多人为工作
带来了他们意想不到的天赋
带来了他们意想不到的天赋
07:46
and each time more than 400 people
brought their unexpected talents to work
brought their unexpected talents to work
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07:50
and solved problems that they had been
wanting to solve for years.
wanting to solve for years.
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并且解决了他们很多年前
就想解决的问题
就想解决的问题
07:53
Collectively, they created
millions of dollars of value,
millions of dollars of value,
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他们共同创造了数百万美元的价值
07:56
building things like a better
touch-tone system for call centers,
touch-tone system for call centers,
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创建了更好的呼叫中心按键系统
更易于使用的桌面工具
08:01
easier desktop tools for branches
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08:02
and even a thank you card system
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甚至还有一个感谢信系统
这些都成为员工工作体验的基石
08:04
that has become a cornerstone
of the employee working experience.
of the employee working experience.
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08:07
Over the course of the eight weeks,
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在八周的时间里
08:09
people flexed muscles that they never
dreamed of using at work.
dreamed of using at work.
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人们在工作中展现了
他们从未想象过的神通
他们从未想象过的神通
08:14
People learned new skills,
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人们学会了新的技巧
08:15
they met new people,
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他们结交了新的朋友
08:18
and at the end, somebody
pulled me aside and said,
pulled me aside and said,
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最后有个人把我拉到一边说
08:21
"I have to tell you,
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我得告诉你
08:22
the last few weeks has been
one of the most intense,
one of the most intense,
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这几个礼拜是我这辈子
08:25
hardest working experiences
of my entire life,
of my entire life,
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最紧张 最辛苦的工作经历
08:28
but not one second of it felt like work."
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但我没有一刻感觉是在工作
08:32
And that's the key.
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那就是关键
08:33
For those few weeks, people
got to be creators and innovators.
got to be creators and innovators.
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在那几周里 人们需要
成为创造者和革新者
成为创造者和革新者
08:38
They had been dreaming of solutions
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他们一直梦想着解决
08:40
to problems that had been
bugging them for years,
bugging them for years,
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那些烦扰了他们好多年的问题
08:43
and this was a chance to turn
those dreams into a reality.
those dreams into a reality.
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而这是一个把这些
梦想变为现实的机会
梦想变为现实的机会
08:46
And that dreaming is an important part
of what separates us from machines.
of what separates us from machines.
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而梦想是我们区别于机器的重要部分
08:51
For now, our machines
do not get frustrated,
do not get frustrated,
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目前我们的机器不会有挫败感
它们不会被惹怒
08:54
they do not get annoyed,
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08:55
and they certainly don't imagine.
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它们当然也不具有想象力
08:57
But we, as human beings --
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但是我们 作为人类
我们会感到痛苦
08:59
we feel pain,
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我们会觉得沮丧
09:00
we get frustrated.
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而我们最为烦恼和最为好奇之时
09:02
And it's when we're most annoyed
and most curious
and most curious
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09:05
that we're motivated to dig
into a problem and create change.
into a problem and create change.
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就是我们产生动力去
深究问题并作出改变之时
深究问题并作出改变之时
09:09
Our imaginations are the birthplace
of new products, new services,
of new products, new services,
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我们的想象力是新产品 新服务
甚至新工业的诞生地
09:13
and even new industries.
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09:15
I believe that the jobs of the future
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我相信未来的职业
09:17
will come from the minds of people
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源于人们的头脑
09:19
who today we call
analysts and specialists,
analysts and specialists,
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他们在今天被称作分析员和专家
09:21
but only if we give them the freedom
and protection that they need to grow
and protection that they need to grow
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但这只会在我们为他们
成为发现者和发明家
成为发现者和发明家
提供足够的自由和保护的情况下发生
09:25
into becoming explorers and inventors.
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09:28
If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,
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如果我们确实想让
工作不被机器人取代
工作不被机器人取代
09:30
we, as leaders, need
to get out of the mindset
to get out of the mindset
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我们 作为领导者 需要抛弃
指使人们做事的模式
09:33
of telling people what to do
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1830
09:34
and instead start asking them
what problems they're inspired to solve
what problems they're inspired to solve
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反而应该询问他们想解决什么问题
09:38
and what talents
they want to bring to work.
they want to bring to work.
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以及他们想把什么天赋带到工作中
09:41
Because when you can bring
your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,
your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,
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因为当你可以把周六的自己
带到周三的工作中时
带到周三的工作中时
09:45
you'll look forward to Mondays more,
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你会更期待周一
09:47
and those feelings
that we have about Mondays
that we have about Mondays
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而那些对周一的感觉
09:49
are part of what makes us human.
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是我们人类的一部分
09:52
And as we redesign work
for an era of intelligent machines,
for an era of intelligent machines,
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在为人工智能时代
重新设计工作的过程中
重新设计工作的过程中
09:55
I invite you all to work alongside me
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我邀请你们所有人和我一起努力
09:57
to bring more humanity
to our working lives.
to our working lives.
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把更多的人性带入
我们的工作生活中
我们的工作生活中
谢谢
10:00
Thank you.
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（掌声）
10:01
(Applause)
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Translated by edukm ps
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Lee - Innovation leaderUPS’s David Lee works to create platforms that make it easier for people to turn fuzzy ideas into concrete solutions.
Why you should listen
David Lee is the Vice President of Innovation and the Strategic Enterprise Fund for UPS. In that role, he develops programs that make it easier for smart, creative people to get together and explore ideas. It's clear that great ideas can come from anywhere. His responsibility to help people turn their ideas into tangible, pragmatic solutions. His team coordinates communities, programs, and contests that give people permission to chase down problems that they are personally inspired to address. He is constantly amazed at what happens when thoughtful, passionate people are given room to run.
Lee's career has been filled with interesting opportunities to break down new barriers for large corporations. He has been involved in the launch of dozens of new products, services and businesses within the framework of corporate processes and expectations. Some of those efforts flourished while others failed. Because of those lessons, he looks to create pathways which result in rapid impact and "good failures" whenever possible.
Prior to joining UPS, he led innovation at SunTrust Bank. Lee started his career at Bank of America, where he worked in advanced technology and asset management. There he helped to launch retirement services and a strategic venture capital group. He studied economics at the University of Virginia and went to business school at the University of Chicago.
David Lee | Speaker | TED.com