TEDxSanJoseCA
Seth Shostak: ET is (probably) out there -- get ready
Seth Shostak: 準備好，ET (可能) 就在那裡
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SETI 的學者賽斯 休斯鐵克斷言，人類會在未來的二十四年內發現外星智慧生物，不然他請你喝一杯咖啡。他在加州聖何塞的 TED 會場對我們解釋，為什麼新的技術與法律可能讓我們有突破性的發現 -- 他也預言，發現遠勝於人類的外星文明會對我們的地球產生何種影響。(攝於TEDxSanJoseCA)
Seth Shostak - Astronomer
Seth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science. Full bio
Seth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Is E.T. out there?
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E.T.存在嗎？
00:13
Well, I work at the SETI Institute.
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我在SETI工作
00:16
That's almost my name. SETI:
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這裡幾乎成了我的代名詞 SETI：
00:17
Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.
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搜尋地外文明計畫
00:19
In other words, I look for aliens,
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換句話說 我在找外星人
00:21
and when I tell people that at a cocktail party, they usually
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我參加聚會時跟別人聊到這個的時候 他們的臉上
00:24
look at me with a mildly incredulous look on their face.
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通常會出現不可置信的表情
00:27
I try to keep my own face somewhat dispassionate.
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而我呢 則會裝出無動於衷的樣子
00:30
Now, a lot of people think that this is kind of idealistic,
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很多人認為ET有點天馬行空
00:32
ridiculous, maybe even hopeless,
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荒唐 甚至是無藥可救
00:35
but I just want to talk to you a little bit about why I think
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但是我只想和你們分享一些我的想法
00:38
that the job I have is actually a privilege, okay,
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我的行業其實是一種榮耀
00:42
and give you a little bit of the motivation for my getting into
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也讓你們知道 我為何要做這行
00:44
this line of work, if that's what you call it.
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如果這稱得上工作的話
00:47
This thing — whoops, can we go back?
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這個玩意....噢 可以回上一張嗎
00:50
Hello, come in, Earth.
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哈囉 呼叫地球
00:52
There we go. All right.
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這才對嘛 好極了
00:54
This is the Owens Valley Radio Observatory
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這是歐文斯谷的無線電天文台
00:56
behind the Sierra Nevadas, and in 1968,
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坐落在內華達山脈 那時是1968年
00:59
I was working there collecting data for my thesis.
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我正在那裏 為了論文
蒐集研究數據
蒐集研究數據
01:02
Now, it's kinda lonely, it's kinda tedious, just collecting data,
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蒐集研究數據是一件蠻孤獨 蠻沉悶的事
01:05
so I would amuse myself by taking photos at night
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所以到了晚上 我會拍一些照片打發時間
01:08
of the telescopes or even of myself,
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拍那些天文望遠鏡 甚至自拍
01:11
because, you know, at night, I would be the only hominid
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你要知道 因為到了晚上 我就是方圓30英里內
01:16
within about 30 miles.
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唯一的人類
01:18
So here are pictures of myself.
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這些是我的自拍照
01:20
The observatory had just acquired a new book,
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當時天文台剛好進了一本新書
01:23
written by a Russian cosmologist
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作者是俄羅斯的宇宙學家
01:25
by the name of Joseph Shklovsky, and then expanded
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名叫約瑟夫 什克洛夫斯基 後來由一位
01:28
and translated and edited by a little-known
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叫做卡爾賽根 小有名氣的天文學家
01:31
Cornell astronomer by the name of Carl Sagan.
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翻譯並擴充編輯成冊
01:34
And I remember reading that book,
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我還記得當初讀這本書的情景
01:36
and at 3 in the morning I was reading this book
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我在凌晨3點的時候讀著這本書
01:38
and it was explaining how the antennas I was using
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書的內容就是講解我當時採用的技術
01:40
to measure the spins of galaxies could also be used
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如何用天線測量星系旋轉 這也可以使用在
01:45
to communicate, to send bits of information
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通訊技術 在各星系之間
01:48
from one star system to another.
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傳遞數位資訊
01:50
Now, at 3 o'clock in the morning when you're all alone,
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好 時間是凌晨三點 你獨自一人
01:52
haven't had much sleep, that was a very romantic idea,
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沒甚麼睡 那種想法還蠻浪漫的
01:55
but it was that idea -- the fact that you could in fact
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但是那種想法 -- 你真的掌握了事實
01:58
prove that there's somebody out there
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來證明人外有人
02:00
just using this same technology --
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只要利用這個技術
02:03
that appealed to me so much that 20 years later I took a job
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那種想法讓我深深著迷 所以20年後我到了
02:05
at the SETI Institute. Now, I have to say
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SETI 這機構工作 各位 我要先說
02:07
that my memory is notoriously porous, and I've often
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我的記性是出了名的差 我也常常懷疑
02:11
wondered whether there was any truth in this story,
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這段往事自己記得的到底多少是真的
02:13
or I was just, you know, misremembering something,
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說不定我記錯了一些細節
02:15
but I recently just blew up this old negative of mine,
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而且我這毛病不久前才發作過
02:17
and sure enough, there you can see
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不過我很確定 你們可以看到
02:19
the Shklovsky and Sagan book underneath that
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那本什克洛夫斯基和賽根的書 就放在
02:21
analog calculating device.
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那個類比計算裝置的下面
02:24
So it was true.
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所以這事是真的
02:24
All right. Now, the idea for doing this, it wasn't very old
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話說回來 不算很久以前 我產生了想做這件事的念頭
02:27
at the time that I made that photo.
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那時候我拍了這張照片
02:29
The idea dates from 1960, when a young astronomer
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這個想法可以回溯到1960年 一位年輕的天文學家
02:32
by the name of Frank Drake used this antenna
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叫法蘭克 德雷克 他在西維吉尼亞州
02:35
in West Virginia, pointed it at a couple of nearby stars
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裝設了這種天線 將天線指向附近的兩顆恒星
02:38
in the hopes of eavesdropping on E.T.
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希望能偷聽到 E. T.的動靜
02:42
Now, Frank didn't hear anything.
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可是呢 法蘭克甚麼都沒聽到
02:43
Actually he did, but it turned out to be the U.S. Air Force,
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其實他聽到了 但是結果那是美國空軍發出的
02:46
which doesn't count as extraterrestrial intelligence.
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這不能算是外星智慧
02:48
But Drake's idea here became very popular
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但是現在德雷克的想法卻很受歡迎
02:51
because it was very appealing — and I'll get back to that —
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因為這非常吸引人 — 這點我等一下再說
02:54
and on the basis of this experiment, which didn't succeed,
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從那時候開始 我們就以這個實驗的數據為基礎
02:57
we have been doing SETI ever since,
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這個失敗的實驗 來執行 SETI
02:59
not continuously, but ever since.
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斷斷續續 但是從沒放棄
03:01
We still haven't heard anything.
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我們還沒有聽到任何東西
03:03
We still haven't heard anything.
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我們還沒有聽到任何東西
03:05
In fact, we don't know about any life beyond Earth,
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事實上 我們不了解任何地球之外的生命
03:06
but I'm going to suggest to you that that's going to change
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但是我要告訴各位 這一切將會有所不同
03:09
rather soon, and part of the reason, in fact,
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在不久的將來 部分的原因 事實上
03:12
the majority of the reason why I think that's going to change
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我覺得這一切將會有所不同 最大原因是
03:14
is that the equipment's getting better.
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我們的設備更先進了
03:16
This is the Allen Telescope Array, about 350 miles
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這是艾倫望遠鏡陣列 從各位現在的位置算起
03:19
from whatever seat you're in right now.
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距離你們大概有350哩
03:21
This is something that we're using today
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這是我們今天用的東西
03:23
to search for E.T., and the electronics have gotten
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用來搜索 E.T. 這些電子產品也已經
03:25
very much better too.
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有很大的進步了
03:26
This is Frank Drake's electronics in 1960.
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這是法蘭克 德雷克在1960年用的電子設備
03:29
This is the Allen Telescope Array electronics today.
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這是現在的艾倫望遠鏡陣列電子設備
03:31
Some pundit with too much time on his hands
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有些閒閒無事 時間太多的專家
03:34
has reckoned that the new experiments are approximately
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做過估計 這些新的實驗設備的效率顯然
03:37
100 trillion times better than they were in 1960,
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比他們在1960年使用的好上100 萬億倍
03:42
100 trillion times better.
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好上100 萬億倍
03:43
That's a degree of an improvement that would look good
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你的成績單上要是有這種進步程度 (學位)
03:45
on your report card, okay?
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看起來應該會很亮眼吧
03:48
But something that's not appreciated by the public is,
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但是有些事情無法得到社會大眾的賞識
03:50
in fact, that the experiment continues to get better,
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事實上 實驗的設備日新月異
03:53
and, consequently, tends to get faster.
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也因此 速度往往越來越快
03:56
This is a little plot, and every time you show a plot,
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這是一張簡單的圖表 每播放一張圖表
03:57
you lose 10 percent of the audience.
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你就會失去十分之一的觀眾
03:59
I have 12 of these. (Laughter)
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這種圖表我有12張 （笑聲）
04:01
But what I plotted here is just some metric
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不過 我這張圖表只顯示了
04:06
that shows how fast we're searching.
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我們搜尋速度的度量性
04:08
In other words, we're looking for a needle in a haystack.
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換句話說 我們這是在大海撈針
04:10
We know how big the haystack is. It's the galaxy.
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我們知道大海有多廣闊 更何況銀河系
04:13
But we're going through the haystack no longer
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但是我們在大海撈針時
04:15
with a teaspoon but with a skip loader,
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不再用茶匙而是用挖土機了
04:18
because of this increase in speed.
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因為速度是以這種幅度增加
04:20
In fact, those of you who are still conscious
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事實上 你們當中還清醒的
04:21
and mathematically competent,
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或是數學能力夠好的
04:24
will note that this is a semi-log plot.
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會注意到這是半對數圖
04:26
In other words, the rate of increase is exponential.
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換句話說 增幅度成指數上升
04:30
It's exponentially improving. Now, exponential is an
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成指數增加 對了 指數是一個
04:33
overworked word. You hear it on the media all the time.
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被濫用的詞 隨時都可以在媒體看到這個詞
04:35
They don't really know what exponential means,
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他們不知道指數真正的意思是甚麼
04:37
but this is exponential.
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這就是指數
04:39
In fact, it's doubling every 18 months, and, of course,
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事實上 這數字每18個月就翻倍 當然
04:42
every card-carrying member of the digerati knows
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每個電腦天才俱樂部的會員都知道
04:44
that that's Moore's Law.
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這叫摩爾定律
04:45
So this means that over the course of the next
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這表示接下來二十幾年的搜索行動
04:48
two dozen years, we'll be able to look at a million star systems,
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我們能夠檢查一百萬個星系
04:52
a million star systems, looking for signals
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一百萬個星系 尋找信號
04:54
that would prove somebody's out there.
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來證明人外有人
04:55
Well, a million star systems, is that interesting?
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所以 一百萬個星系 是不是很有趣
04:58
I mean, how many of those star systems have planets?
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我是說 這些星系裡面有多少是有行星的
05:01
And the facts are, we didn't know the answer to that
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事實是 我們不知道這個問題的答案
05:03
even as recently as 15 years ago, and in fact, we really
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事實上 甚至一直到15年前我們都還不知道
05:05
didn't know it even as recently as six months ago.
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甚至一直到六個月前我們都還不知道
05:08
But now we do. Recent results suggest
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但是我們現在知道了 最近的研究結果顯示
05:11
that virtually every star has planets, and more than one.
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幾乎每個恆星都有行星 而且不只一個
05:15
They're like, you know, kittens. You get a litter.
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他們就像 比如說 小貓 一次都生一窩
05:18
You don't get one kitten. You get a bunch.
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你不是多一隻小貓 你會有一堆
05:20
So in fact, this is a pretty accurate estimate
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所以 事實上這相當精準地估計了
05:23
of the number of planets in our galaxy,
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我們銀河系的行星數目
05:27
just in our galaxy, by the way,
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光是我們的銀河系 順便一提
05:29
and I remind the non-astronomy majors among you
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然後我要提醒你們之中那些不是主修天文學的人
05:31
that our galaxy is only one of 100 billion
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我們銀河系只是人類可以用望遠鏡看到的
05:34
that we can see with our telescopes.
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一千億個星系的其中之一
05:36
That's a lot of real estate, but of course,
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外太空有很多房地產 但是當然
05:37
most of these planets are going to be kind of worthless,
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我們會發現大部分的行星幾乎都毫無價值
05:39
like, you know, Mercury, or Neptune.
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比方說 像是水星 或是海王星
05:41
Neptune's probably not very big in your life.
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海王星對你的人生來說大概無關緊要
05:43
So the question is, what fraction of these planets
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所以問題是 這些行星中 那些是
05:48
are actually suitable for life?
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真正適合居住的呢
05:49
We don't know the answer to that either,
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這個問題的答案我們也不知道
05:51
but we will learn that answer this year, thanks to
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但是這是我們今年的研究議題 這得歸功於
05:53
NASA's Kepler Space Telescope,
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美國宇航局的克卜勒太空望遠鏡
05:55
and in fact, the smart money, which is to say the people who work on this project,
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事實上 這些理財高手 也就是這個計畫的工作人員
05:59
the smart money is suggesting that the fraction of planets
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這些理財高手表示 這些行星中可能
06:02
that might be suitable for life is maybe one in a thousand,
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適合生命居住的比例也許是
06:06
one in a hundred, something like that.
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千分之一或百分之一左右
06:09
Well, even taking the pessimistic estimate, that it's
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嗯 就算估計的再悲觀一點
06:12
one in a thousand, that means that there are
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比例是千分之一 這表示
06:15
at least a billion cousins of the Earth
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我們的地球在銀河系裡
06:17
just in our own galaxy.
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至少有十億個表兄弟
06:19
Okay, now I've given you a lot of numbers here,
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好 我現在給了你一堆數字
06:21
but they're mostly big numbers, okay, so, you know,
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可是多半是很大數目 你知道嗎
06:25
keep that in mind. There's plenty of real estate,
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記住這一點 外太空有很多房地產
06:28
plenty of real estate in the universe,
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宇宙裡有很多房地產
06:30
and if we're the only bit of real estate in which there's
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如果我們這塊一丁點大的地皮 是惟一
06:33
some interesting occupants, that makes you a miracle,
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一個有迷人生物居住的地方 那才叫奇蹟
06:36
and I know you like to think you're a miracle,
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我知道你喜歡把這件事當作奇蹟
06:38
but if you do science, you learn rather quickly that
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但是如果你用科學的角度想 你很快就會發現
06:40
every time you think you're a miracle, you're wrong,
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每次你認為自己是奇蹟的時候 你就錯了
06:42
so probably not the case.
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所以事情可能不是這樣
06:45
All right, so the bottom line is this:
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好 所以重點是
06:47
Because of the increase in speed, and because of the
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由於速度加快了 還有因為
06:50
vast amount of habitable real estate in the cosmos, I figure
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宇宙有極多可供居住的地方 我認為大概在
06:55
we're going to pick up a signal within two dozen years.
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未來的二十幾年內 我們會找出一個信號來源地
06:57
And I feel strongly enough about that to make a bet with you:
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我有強烈的直覺 所以我敢跟你們打賭
07:00
Either we're going to find E.T. in the next two dozen years,
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未來的二十幾年內 要是我們沒有找到E.T.
07:02
or I'll buy you a cup of coffee.
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我就買杯咖啡給你
07:06
So that's not so bad. I mean, even with two dozen years,
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其實這個賭注沒那麼糟 我是說 即使等個二十幾年
07:08
you open up your browser and there's news of a signal,
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你打開你的瀏覽器 然後看到發現E.T.信號的新聞
07:10
or you get a cup of coffee.
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或是你得到了一杯咖啡
07:12
Now, let me tell you about some aspect of this that
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現在 讓我把這方面的願景告訴你們
07:16
people don't think about, and that is,
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社會大眾對此不以為然 這就是
07:18
what happens? Suppose that what I say is true.
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是甚麼呢 假設我說的是真的
07:22
I mean, who knows, but suppose it happens.
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我是說 世事難料 就假設這件事發生了
07:24
Suppose some time in the next two dozen years
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假設未來二十幾年後的某個時間
07:25
we pick up a faint line that tells us
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我們點選了虛擬銀幕上的一行文字 上面說
07:28
we have some cosmic company.
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有幾個來自宇宙的朋友來訪了
07:29
What is the effect? What's the consequence?
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影響是什麼 後果是什麼
07:32
Now, I might be at ground zero for this.
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好 我可能正處這事件的原爆點
07:34
I happen to know what the consequence for me would be,
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我剛好知道這對我的影響是什麼
07:35
because we've had false alarms. This is 1997,
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因為我們遇過假警報 時間是1997 年
07:38
and this is a photo I made at about 3 o'clock in the morning
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這張照片是我在大概零晨三點拍的
07:41
in Mountain View here, when we were watching
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在舊金山的山景城 那時我們在看
07:43
the computer monitors because we had picked up a signal
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電腦螢幕 因為我們收到一個信號
07:45
that we thought, "This is the real deal." All right?
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我們認為 "這次是來真的"
07:48
And I kept waiting for the Men in Black to show up. Right?
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我一直在等黑衣人出現
07:51
I kept waiting for -- I kept waiting for my mom to call,
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我一直在等......我一直在等我媽的電話
07:56
somebody to call, the government to call. Nobody called.
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某人的電話 政府的電話 結果沒人打來
07:59
Nobody called. I was so nervous
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沒人打來 我當時太緊張
08:02
that I couldn't sit down. I just wandered around
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我坐不住 我就在那兒團團轉
08:04
taking photos like this one, just for something to do.
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照了這種照片 只是想找件事做
08:07
Well, at 9:30 in the morning, with my head down
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嗯 早上9:30時 我低著頭
08:09
on my desk because I obviously hadn't slept all night,
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趴在我的書桌上 因為我顯然整晚沒睡
08:11
the phone rings and it's The New York Times.
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電話響了 是紐約時報
08:13
And I think there's a lesson in that, and that lesson is
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我認為這件事有個教訓 教訓就是
08:16
that if we pick up a signal, the media, the media will be on it
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如果我們收到那種信號 媒體 媒體會找上門
08:19
faster than a weasel on ball bearings. It's going to be fast.
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比滾輪上的黃鼠狼還快 這種事會傳得很快
08:23
You can be sure of that. No secrecy.
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跟你們保證 秘密藏不住
08:25
That's what happens to me. It kind of ruins my whole week,
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這是我的遭遇 幾乎把我那整個星期給毀了
08:28
because whatever I've got planned that week is kind of out the window.
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因為不管我那禮拜訂了甚麼計畫都泡湯了
08:30
But what about you? What's it going to do to you?
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那你們呢 你們打算怎麼辦
08:33
And the answer is that we don't know the answer.
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答案是我們不知道答案
08:35
We don't know what that's going to do to you,
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我們不知道這種事對你們會有麼甚麼影響
08:35
not in the long term, and not even very much in the short term.
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不會等太久 而短期內也不太可能發生
08:39
I mean, that would be a bit like
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我是說 這有一點像
08:41
asking Chris Columbus in 1491, "Hey Chris,
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你問1491年的哥倫布 "嘿 哥倫布
08:45
you know, what happens if it turns out that there's a
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要是說啊 這裡和日本之間
08:47
continent between here and Japan, where you're sailing to,
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原來還有一塊大陸 你想把船開去哪裡嗎
08:50
what will be the consequences for humanity
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還有 如果你決定這樣做
08:53
if that turns out to be the case?"
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這會對全人類造成甚麼影響呢"
08:55
And I think Chris would probably offer you some answer
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我認為哥倫布給你的回答
08:57
that you might not have understood, but it probably
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你可能會聽不懂 那個回答可能
09:00
wouldn't have been right, and I think that to predict
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也沒有依據 我認為這跟預測
09:02
what finding E.T.'s going to mean,
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會不會發現E.T. 是一樣的意思
09:04
we can't predict that either.
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這也是我們無法預測的
09:05
But here are a couple things I can say.
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不過現在有幾件事我能確定
09:07
To begin with, it's going to be a society that's way in advance of our own.
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第一件事 我們會發現他們的文明遠勝我們
09:11
You're not going to hear from alien Neanderthals.
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你不會聽到外星尼安德塔人的聲音
09:13
They're not building transmitters.
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他們不需要建造發射台
09:14
They're going to be ahead of us, maybe by a few thousand
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我們會發現他們遠遠領先 也許幾千年
09:16
years, maybe by a few millions years, but substantially
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也許幾百萬年 絕對大幅超前我們
09:19
ahead of us, and that means, if you can understand
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這表示 如果你們能理解
09:21
anything that they're going to say, then you might be able
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他們說的每一句話 那你也許可以
09:25
to short-circuit history by getting information from a society
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借鏡這種遙遙領先我們的文明 吸收他們的文化
09:28
that's way beyond our own.
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縮短我們的歷史發展
09:30
Now, you might find that a bit hyperbolic, and maybe it is,
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好 你或許會覺得這有點誇張 或許沒錯
09:33
but nonetheless, it's conceivable that this will happen,
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但是無論如何 這種推論是合理的
09:35
and, you know, you could consider this like, I don't know,
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而且 你知道 你可以把這個想成......想成
09:38
giving Julius Caesar English lessons and the key
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教凱薩大帝說英文 然後再給他一把
09:40
to the library of Congress.
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國會圖書館的鑰匙
09:41
It would change his day, all right?
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那會改變他的一生 是吧
09:44
That's one thing. Another thing that's for sure
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這是肯定的 另外一件肯定會
09:46
going to happen is that it will calibrate us.
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發生的事是 那會校正我們的文明
09:49
We will know that we're not that miracle, right,
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我們會明白自己不是奇蹟 對吧
09:53
that we're just another duck in a row,
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我們只是芸芸眾生中的平凡人
09:55
we're not the only kids on the block, and I think that that's
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我們不是街上唯一的孩子 我認為這是
09:57
philosophically a very profound thing to learn.
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一門哲理深奧的學問
10:00
We're not a miracle, okay?
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我們不是奇蹟 好嗎
10:03
The third thing that it might tell you is somewhat vague,
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第三件事的寓意有點曖昧不明
10:06
but I think interesting and important,
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但我覺得很有趣也很重要
10:08
and that is, if you find a signal coming from a more
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就是說 如果你發現一個信號 發射地是一個
10:10
advanced society, because they will be,
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比我們先進的文明 因為這樣才合理
10:12
that will tell you something about our own possibilities,
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這樣的文明會使我們發現自己的可塑性
10:15
that we're not inevitably doomed to self-destruction.
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我們不是注定走向自我毀滅之途
10:20
Because they survived their technology,
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因為他們沒有被自己的科技滅亡
10:22
we could do it too.
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我們也做得到
10:23
Normally when you look out into the universe,
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通常你望向宇宙深處時
10:25
you're looking back in time. All right?
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你看到的都是過去 是吧
10:27
That's interesting to cosmologists.
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宇宙學家對此很感興趣
10:29
But in this sense, you actually can look into the future,
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但是對我們而言 你其實可以看到未來
10:33
hazily, but you can look into the future.
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有點模糊 但是你可以看到未來
10:35
So those are all the sorts of things that would come from a detection.
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所以這些全部都是能探測出來的東西
10:40
Now, let me talk a little bit about something that happens
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好 讓我談談現在發生的事情
10:43
even in the meantime, and that is,
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就在這個時候 那就是
10:47
SETI, I think, is important, because it's exploration, and
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SETI 我個人認為很重要 因為它進行的是探索
10:52
it's not only exploration, it's comprehensible exploration.
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那不只是探索 那是全方位的探索
10:54
Now, I gotta tell you, I'm always reading books about
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現在 你們要知道 我一直都在讀有關
10:57
explorers. I find exploration very interesting,
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探險者的書 我發現探索是件很有趣的事
11:00
Arctic exploration, you know, people like Magellan,
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北極探險 你知道嗎 人們都喜歡麥哲倫
11:03
Amundsen, Shackleton, you see Franklin down there,
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阿蒙森(首抵南極者) 沙克爾頓(多次探索南極)
下面有富蘭克林(北極探險家)
下面有富蘭克林(北極探險家)
11:06
Scott, all these guys. It's really nifty, exploration.
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斯科特(南極探險家)，所有這些人 探險真是帥呆了
11:09
And they're just doing it because they want to explore,
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而他們會這麼做 只是因為喜歡探險
11:11
and you might say, "Oh, that's kind of a frivolous opportunity,"
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有人可能會說 "是喔 那算投機份子吧"
11:13
but that's not frivolous. That's not a frivolous activity,
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可是這不是投機 這不是投機分子的行為
11:17
because, I mean, think of ants.
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因為 我是說 看看螞蟻
11:19
You know, most ants are programmed to follow one another
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你知道嗎 大多數螞蟻的天性都是跟著其他螞蟻
11:21
along in a long line, but there are a couple of ants,
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排成長長一列 而就是會有幾隻螞蟻
11:23
maybe one percent of those ants, that are what they call
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也許只有百分之一 牠們這是所謂的
11:26
pioneer ants, and they're the ones that wander off.
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螞蟻先驅 他們到處亂走
11:28
They're the ones you find on the kitchen countertop.
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1901
牠們會出現在你家廚房的流理臺
11:30
You gotta get them with your thumb before they
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你要用拇指壓死牠們 不然
11:32
find the sugar or something.
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會被牠們找到糖或其他東西
11:33
But those ants, even though most of them get wiped out,
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但是這些螞蟻 儘管大多數都被捏死了
11:36
those ants are the ones that are essential to the survival
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但是整個蟻巢必須仰賴這些螞蟻
11:39
of the hive. So exploration is important.
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才得以生存 所以探險很重要
11:42
I also think that exploration is important in terms of
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探險之所以重要的理由 我認為還有一個
11:46
being able to address what I think is a critical
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那就是探險能填補我認為我們的社會
11:51
lack in our society, and that is the lack of science literacy,
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缺乏的關鍵元素 那就是科學知識的貧乏
11:54
the lack of the ability to even understand science.
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甚至連理解科學的能力都不足
11:58
Now, look, a lot has been written about the
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好 你們看 很多人都寫了文章
12:00
deplorable state of science literacy in this country.
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為我們國家的科學素養之差感到可悲
12:03
You've heard about it.
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你們都知道
12:06
Well, here's one example, in fact.
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好 我舉個例子 事實上
12:08
Polls taken, this poll was taken 10 years ago.
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民調顯示 10 年前的民調
12:10
It shows like roughly one third of the public thinks
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2129
顯示了大約三分之一的民眾認為
12:12
that aliens are not only out there, we're looking for them
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外星人不但真的存在 我們正在尋找他們
12:14
out there, but they're here, right?
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而且他們已經在這裡了 是嗎
12:16
Sailing the skies in their saucers and occasionally
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坐在他們的飛碟裡翱翔 偶爾還會
12:18
abducting people for experiments their parents wouldn't approve of.
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把人綁架去做那些他們父母不會同意的實驗
12:21
Well, that would be interesting if it was true,
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好 如果真有此事 那還蠻有趣的
12:24
and job security for me, but I don't think the evidence is
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而且保障了我的工作 但是我不認為那些
12:26
very good. That's more, you know, sad than significant.
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足以當作證據 把這些當作事實就有點悲哀了
12:30
But there are other things that people believe
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但是人們還相信其他事
12:32
that are significant, like the efficacy of homeopathy,
289
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3411
更有意義的事實 像是順勢療法的效果
12:35
or that evolution is just, you know, sort of a crazy idea
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3551
或是演化是公平的 你知道嗎 類似這些瘋狂的想法
12:39
by scientists without any legs, or, you know, evolution,
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3031
都是只有兩隻腳的科學家想到的 還是說 進化
12:42
all that sort of thing, or global warming.
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所有這些想法 或是全球暖化
12:44
These sorts of ideas don't really have any validity,
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諸如此類的想法真的沒有不合理的地方
12:48
that you can't trust the scientists.
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不會讓你有懷疑科學家的理由
12:50
Now, we've got to solve that problem, because that's
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現在 我們必須解決這個問題 因為這是
12:52
a critically important problem, and you might say,
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一個極為重要的問題 有人可能會說
12:56
"Well, okay, how are we gonna solve that problem with SETI?"
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"嗯 好吧 我們怎麼和 SETI 解決這個問題"
12:59
Well, let me suggest to you that SETI obviously can't
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好 我跟你們說 SETI 顯然沒辦法
13:01
solve the problem, but it can address the problem.
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解決這個問題 但它有處理這個問題的能力
13:03
It can address the problem by getting young people
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它可以借助那些對科學有興趣的年輕人
13:06
interested in science. Look, science is hard, it
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來處理這個問題 聽我說 科學很難
13:09
has a reputation of being hard, and the facts are, it is hard,
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科學是出名的難懂 事實上 科學很難
13:12
and that's the result of 400 years of science, right?
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這是科學累積四百年的成果 是吧
13:17
I mean, in the 18th century, in the 18th century
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我是說 18 世紀時 18 世紀時
13:19
you could become an expert on any field of science
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你可以成為任何科學領域的專家
13:22
in an afternoon by going to a library,
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只要在圖書館待一個下午
13:25
if you could find the library, right?
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前提是你能找到圖書館 是吧
13:27
In the 19th century, if you had a basement lab,
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19 世紀時 如果你有個地下實驗室
13:30
you could make major scientific discoveries
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你就能做出重大的科學發現
13:33
in your own home. Right? Because there was all this
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在自己家裡 那是因為這些科學新知
13:35
science just lying around waiting for somebody to pick it up.
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隨手可得 到處都是 等著讓人發現
13:38
Now, that's not true anymore.
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現在 情況不一樣了
13:40
Today, you've got to spend years in grad school
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今天 你要當好幾年的研究生
13:42
and post-doc positions just to figure out what
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還要繼續博士後的研究工作 只是為了提出
13:46
the important questions are.
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那些重要的問題
13:48
It's hard. There's no doubt about it.
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科學很難 無庸置疑
13:50
And in fact, here's an example: the Higgs boson,
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事實上 我舉個例子：希格斯玻色子
13:52
finding the Higgs boson.
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尋找希格斯玻色子
13:54
Ask the next 10 people you see on the streets,
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到街上去 問一下你遇到的 10 個人
13:56
"Hey, do you think it's worthwhile to spend billions
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"嘿，你認為花費數十億法郎
13:58
of Swiss francs looking for the Higgs boson?"
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尋找希格斯玻色子值得嗎 "
14:01
And I bet the answer you're going to get, is,
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我敢說你得到的回答會是
14:03
"Well, I don't know what the Higgs boson is,
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"嗯，我不知道甚麼是希格斯玻色子
14:05
and I don't know if it's important."
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我不知道那是不是很重要
14:06
And probably most of the people wouldn't even know
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可能大多數人甚至連瑞士法郎的價值
14:08
the value of a Swiss franc, okay?
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都不知道 是吧
14:10
And yet we're spending billions of Swiss francs on this problem.
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而我們還是花了數十億瑞士法郎想解決這個問題
14:13
Okay? So that doesn't get people interested in science
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懂嗎 這件事沒辦法引起人們對科學的興趣
14:15
because they can't comprehend what it's about.
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因為他們不了解他們在幹嘛
14:17
SETI, on the other hand, is really simple.
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而說到 SETI 呢 真的很簡單
14:18
We're going to use these big antennas and we're going to
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我們要用這些大大的天線 我們要嘗試
14:20
try to eavesdrop on signals. Everybody can understand that.
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竊聽信號 這每個人都懂
14:23
Yes, technologically, it's very sophisticated,
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沒錯 技術上來說 這件事非常的複雜
14:25
but everybody gets the idea.
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但是大家都有這個想法
14:27
So that's one thing. The other thing is, it's exciting science.
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這就是第一件事 另一件事是 這是一種令人興奮的科學
14:31
It's exciting because we're naturally interested
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令人興奮的原因是我們天生對
14:33
in other intelligent beings, and I think that's
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其他智慧生命感興趣 而且我認為那是
14:35
part of our hardwiring.
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我們內建的程式
14:37
I mean, we're hardwired to be interested
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我是說 我們對那些生物的興趣是內建的
14:38
in beings that might be, if you will, competitors,
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那些可能會是 如果你相信的話 我們的競爭對手
14:41
or if you're the romantic sort, possibly even mates. Okay?
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或是如果你天性浪漫 他們可能是我們的同伴 好嗎
14:45
I mean, this is analogous to our interest in things that
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我是說 我們可以拿這種興趣來跟我們對有大牙齒的
14:47
have big teeth. Right?
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東西的興趣比較 對吧
14:49
We're interested in things that have big teeth, and you
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我們對有大牙齒的東西感興趣 因為我們
14:50
can see the evolutionary value of that, and you can also see
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可以看出進化的價值 我們在看動物星球頻道時
14:53
the practical consequences by watching Animal Planet.
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也能得到相同的結論
14:56
You notice they make very few programs about gerbils.
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你注意他們很少播沙鼠的節目
14:59
It's mostly about things that have big teeth.
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他們多半都播有大牙齒的東西
15:01
Okay, so we're interested in these sorts of things.
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好 所以我們會對這些東西感興趣
15:04
And not just us. It's also kids.
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不只是我們 小孩子也是
15:08
This allows you to pay it forward by using this subject as a
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這些科學誘餌讓我們願意深入了解
15:11
hook to science, because SETI involves all kinds of science,
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因為 SETI 涉及所有種類的科學
15:14
obviously biology, obviously astronomy,
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顯然有生物學 顯然有天文學
15:16
but also geology, also chemistry, various scientific
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而且還有地質學 還有化學 各種各樣的科學
15:20
disciplines all can be presented in the guise of,
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掩飾所有這些學科的就是
15:24
"We're looking for E.T."
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"我們在找外星人" 這個幌子
15:25
So to me this is interesting and important, and in fact,
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所以對我來說 這件事有趣又重要 實際上
15:29
it's my policy, even though I give a lot of talks to adults,
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這是我的手段 即使我演講的對象大多是成年人
15:33
you give talks to adults, and two days later they're back where they were.
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你對成年人演講 兩天後他們就忘得一乾二淨了
15:35
But if you give talks to kids, you know,
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但是如果對小孩子演講 你知道嗎
15:38
one in 50 of them, some light bulb goes off, and they think,
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只要五十個裡面有一個 腦中的燈泡亮了 然後他們會想
15:42
"Gee, I'd never thought of that," and then they go,
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"哎呀 我以前從來沒想過" 然後他們就去
15:44
you know, read a book or a magazine or whatever.
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嗯 找本書或雜誌或甚麼的來讀
15:46
They get interested in something.
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他們對某件事情感興趣
15:48
Now it's my theory, supported only by anecdotal,
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這就是我的理論 只能靠奇聞軼事支持
15:53
personal anecdotal evidence, but nonetheless,
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我自己的奇聞軼事 儘管如此
15:55
that kids get interested in something between the ages
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八到十一歲的孩子會對某件事情感興趣
15:57
of eight and 11. You've got to get them there.
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這時你必須幫他們一把
16:00
So, all right, I give talks to adults, that's fine, but I try
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因此 好 我對成人演講 沒錯 但是我想要讓
16:02
and make 10 percent of the talks that I give,
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我十場中有一場演講發揮效果
16:05
I try and make those for kids.
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我試著幫那些孩子
16:07
I remember when a guy came to our high school, actually,
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我記得高中時有一個傢伙來到我學校 事實上
16:10
it was actually my junior high school. I was in sixth grade.
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是我初中時 那時候我讀六年級
16:13
And he gave some talk. All I remember from it
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他說了一些話 我只記得
16:15
was one word: electronics.
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一個字 電子用品
16:17
It was like Dustin Hoffman in "The Graduate," right,
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這就像在"畢業生" 裡的達斯汀霍夫曼
16:19
when he said "plastics," whatever that means, plastics.
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他說"塑膠"的時候 不管他想說甚麼 塑膠
16:22
All right, so the guy said electronics. I don't remember
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好 所以那傢伙說了電子用品 其他的
16:24
anything else. In fact, I don't remember anything
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我都不記得了 事實上 我六年級老師
16:26
that my sixth grade teacher said all year,
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整年說過的事我全都忘了
16:28
but I remember electronics.
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但我記得電子用品
16:30
And so I got interested in electronics, and you know,
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所以我對電子學有了興趣 你知道嗎
16:32
I studied to get my ham license. I was wiring up stuff.
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為了考取無線電證照 我讀書 我組裝零件
16:35
Here I am at about 15 or something, doing that sort of stuff.
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我在大概 15 歲左右 搞這些搞那些的
16:38
Okay? That had a big effect on me.
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懂嗎 這對我產生很大的影響
16:39
So that's my point, that you can have a big effect
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這就是我的重點 對那些孩子而言 你可以發揮
16:41
on these kids.
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很大的影響力
16:44
In fact, this reminds me, I don't know, a couple years ago
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事實上 這使我想起 我想想 幾年前
16:47
I gave a talk at a school in Palo Alto
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我在帕洛阿爾托的一間學校演講
16:51
where there were about a dozen 11-year-olds
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那裡有大概有十幾個 11 歲大的小孩
16:53
that had come to this talk.
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來聽我的演講
16:54
I had been brought in to talk to these kids for an hour.
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我對這些孩子演講了一個小時
16:56
Eleven-year-olds, they're all sitting in a little semi-circle
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11歲的小孩 他們都圍成一個小小的半圓型
16:58
looking up at me with big eyes, and I started,
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看大眼睛抬頭看我 然後我開始講
17:01
there was a white board behind me, and I started off
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我後面有個白板 然後我開始
17:02
by writing a one with 22 zeroes after it, and I said,
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寫1然後跟著22個零 我說
17:05
"All right, now look, this is the number of stars
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"好 你們看 這是星星的數量
17:07
in the visible universe, and this number is so big
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可見的宇宙中 這個數字這麼大
17:10
there's not even a name for it."
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大到沒有命名"
17:14
And one of these kids shot up his hand, and he said,
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其中一個孩子舉手 他說
17:16
"Well, actually there is a name for it.
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"嗯 其實它有名稱
17:18
It's a sextra-quadra-hexa-something or other." Right?
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那叫京兆億之類的還是甚麼的"
17:21
Now, that kid was wrong by four orders of magnitude,
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好 那小子說錯了幾個大數
17:25
but there was no doubt about it, these kids were smart.
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但是毫無疑問 這些孩子很聰明
17:27
Okay? So I stopped giving the lecture.
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懂嗎 所以我停止演講
17:29
All they wanted to do was ask questions.
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他們只想要問問題
17:32
In fact, my last comments to these kids, at the end I said,
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事實上 我最後給這些孩子的評語是 結束時我說
17:36
"You know, you kids are smarter
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"你知道嗎 你的孩子很聰明
17:38
than the people I work with." Now — (Laughter)
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比我同事聰明 然後 —（笑聲）
17:43
They didn't even care about that.
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他們甚至連這個都不在乎
17:44
What they wanted was my email address
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他們只想要我的電子郵件地址
17:47
so they could ask me more questions. (Laughter)
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然後他們就可以問我更多的問題（笑聲）
17:51
Let me just say, look, my job is a privilege
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我只想說 你看 我的工作是一項特權
17:54
because we're in a special time.
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因為我們處在特殊的時代
17:55
Previous generations couldn't do this experiment at all.
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上一代的人根本無法進行這種實驗
17:58
In another generation down the line,
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在我們之後的下一個世代
18:00
I think we will have succeeded.
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我認為我們會成功
18:02
So to me, it is a privilege, and when I look in the mirror,
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所以對我來說 這是一種特權 當我看著鏡子
18:05
the facts are that I really don't see myself.
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事實上我看到的 真的不是我自己
18:08
What I see is the generation behind me.
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我看到是我後面的世代
18:10
These are some kids from the Huff School, fourth graders.
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那些從胡夫小學畢業的 四年級的孩子
18:12
I talked there, what, two weeks ago, something like that.
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我在那裏演講過 大概是兩個星期前 講了類似這些事情
18:15
I think that if you can instill some interest in science
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我覺得如果你可以讓科學變得比較有趣
18:19
and how it works, well, that's a payoff
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還有解釋科學的原理 嗯 這就是回報
18:22
beyond easy measure. Thank you very much.
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價值遠勝於簡單的測驗 非常感謝大家
18:25
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Seth Shostak - AstronomerSeth Shostak is an astronomer, alien hunter and bulwark of good, exciting science.
Why you should listen
Seth Shostak is the Senior Astronomer at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California. Inspired by a book about the solar system he read at the age of ten, he began his career with a degree in physics from Princeton University and a PhD in astronomy from the California Institute of Technology before working with radio telescopes in the US and the Netherlands to uncover how the universe will end. In 1999, he produced twelve 30-minute lectures on audio-tape and video titled "The Search for Intelligent Life in Space" for the Teaching Company and has hosted SETI’s Big Picture Science podcast since 2002. In 2010, he was elected as a Fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and is the Chair of the International Academy of Astronautics SETI Permanent Study Group. He has published four books, nearly 300 popular articles on astronomy, technology, film and television and gives frequent talks to both young and adult audiences.
Seth Shostak | Speaker | TED.com