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Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
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Perspective is everything, especially when it comes to examining your beliefs. Are you a soldier, prone to defending your viewpoint at all costs -- or a scout, spurred by curiosity? Julia Galef examines the motivations behind these two mindsets and how they shape the way we interpret information, interweaved with a compelling history lesson from 19th-century France. When your steadfast opinions are tested, Galef asks: "What do you most yearn for? Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?"
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
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that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle.
in the heat of battle.
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Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier
or a medieval archer
or a medieval archer
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or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
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Regardless of your time and place,
there are some things that are constant.
there are some things that are constant.
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Your adrenaline is elevated,
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and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
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reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side
to protect yourself and your side
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and to defeat the enemy.
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So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role,
playing a very different role,
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that of the scout.
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The scout's job is not
to attack or defend.
to attack or defend.
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The scout's job is to understand.
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The scout is the one going out,
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mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles.
identifying potential obstacles.
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And the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge
that, say, there's a bridge
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in a convenient location across a river.
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But above all, the scout
wants to know what's really there,
wants to know what's really there,
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as accurately as possible.
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And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential.
the soldier and the scout are essential.
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But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset --
of these roles as a mindset --
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a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas
process information and ideas
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in our daily lives.
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What I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment,
is that having good judgment,
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making accurate predictions,
making good decisions,
making good decisions,
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is mostly about which mindset you're in.
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To illustrate these mindsets in action,
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I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century France,
to 19th-century France,
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where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper
piece of paper
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launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history.
political scandals in history.
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It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff.
by officers in the French general staff.
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It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
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but when they pieced it back together,
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they discovered
that someone in their ranks
that someone in their ranks
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had been selling
military secrets to Germany.
military secrets to Germany.
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So they launched a big investigation,
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and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man,
quickly converged on this man,
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Alfred Dreyfus.
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He had a sterling record,
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no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell.
no motive as far as they could tell.
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But Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
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and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
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They compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo
to that on the memo
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and concluded that it was a match,
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even though outside
professional handwriting experts
professional handwriting experts
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were much less confident
in the similarity,
in the similarity,
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but never mind that.
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They went and searched
Dreyfus's apartment,
Dreyfus's apartment,
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looking for any signs of espionage.
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They went through his files,
and they didn't find anything.
and they didn't find anything.
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This just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
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but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence
he had hidden all of the evidence
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before they had managed to get to it.
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Next, they went and looked
through his personal history
through his personal history
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for any incriminating details.
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They talked to his teachers,
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they found that he had studied
foreign languages in school,
foreign languages in school,
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which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments
to conspire with foreign governments
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later in life.
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His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory,
was known for having a good memory,
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which was highly suspicious, right?
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You know, because a spy
has to remember a lot of things.
has to remember a lot of things.
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So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
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Afterwards, they took him out
into this public square
into this public square
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and ritualistically tore
his insignia from his uniform
his insignia from his uniform
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and broke his sword in two.
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This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
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And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment
to life imprisonment
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on the aptly named Devil's Island,
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which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America.
off the coast of South America.
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So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone,
and there he spent his days alone,
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writing letters and letters
to the French government
to the French government
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begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence.
so they could discover his innocence.
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But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed.
France considered the matter closed.
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One thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
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is this question of why the officers
were so convinced
were so convinced
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that Dreyfus was guilty.
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I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up,
that they were setting him up,
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that they were intentionally framing him.
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But historians don't think
that's what happened.
that's what happened.
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As far as we can tell,
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the officers genuinely believed
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
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Which makes you wonder:
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What does it say about the human mind
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that we can find such paltry evidence
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to be compelling enough to convict a man?
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Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning."
call "motivated reasoning."
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It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations,
our unconscious motivations,
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our desires and fears,
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shape the way we interpret information.
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Some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies.
feel like our allies.
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We want them to win.
We want to defend them.
We want to defend them.
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And other information
or ideas are the enemy,
or ideas are the enemy,
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and we want to shoot them down.
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So this is why I call
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
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Probably most of you have never persecuted
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a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
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I assume,
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but maybe you've followed sports
or politics, so you might have noticed
or politics, so you might have noticed
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that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul,
that your team committed a foul,
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for example,
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you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong.
to find reasons why he's wrong.
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But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul -- awesome!
committed a foul -- awesome!
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That's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely.
let's not examine it too closely.
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Or, maybe you've read
an article or a study
an article or a study
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that examined some controversial policy,
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like capital punishment.
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And, as researchers have demonstrated,
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if you support capital punishment
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and the study shows
that it's not effective,
that it's not effective,
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then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons
to find all the reasons
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why the study was poorly designed.
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But if it shows
that capital punishment works,
that capital punishment works,
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it's a good study.
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And vice versa: if you don't
support capital punishment, same thing.
support capital punishment, same thing.
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Our judgment is strongly
influenced, unconsciously,
influenced, unconsciously,
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by which side we want to win.
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And this is ubiquitous.
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This shapes how we think
about our health, our relationships,
about our health, our relationships,
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how we decide how to vote,
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what we consider fair or ethical.
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What's most scary to me
about motivated reasoning
about motivated reasoning
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or soldier mindset,
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is how unconscious it is.
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We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded
objective and fair-minded
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and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man.
of an innocent man.
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However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over.
his story is not over.
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This is Colonel Picquart.
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He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army,
in the French Army,
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and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
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Also like most people in the army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
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But at a certain point,
Picquart began to suspect:
Picquart began to suspect:
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"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
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What happened was,
he had discovered evidence
he had discovered evidence
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that the spying for Germany had continued,
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even after Dreyfus was in prison.
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And he had also discovered
that another officer in the army
that another officer in the army
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had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo,
matched the memo,
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much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
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So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors,
to his superiors,
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but to his dismay,
they either didn't care
they either didn't care
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or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings,
to explain his findings,
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like, "Well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy
Picquart, is that there's another spy
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who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's handwriting,
Dreyfus's handwriting,
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and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left.
after Dreyfus left.
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But Dreyfus is still guilty."
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Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
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But it took him 10 years,
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and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison
he himself was in prison
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for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
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A lot of people feel like Picquart
can't really be the hero of this story
can't really be the hero of this story
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because he was an anti-Semite
and that's bad, which I agree with.
and that's bad, which I agree with.
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But personally, for me,
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
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actually makes his actions more admirable,
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because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased
the same reasons to be biased
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as his fellow officers,
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but his motivation to find the truth
and uphold it trumped all of that.
and uphold it trumped all of that.
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So to me,
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Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset."
for what I call "scout mindset."
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It's the drive not to make
one idea win or another lose,
one idea win or another lose,
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but just to see what's really there
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as honestly and accurately as you can,
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even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant.
or convenient or pleasant.
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This mindset is what
I'm personally passionate about.
I'm personally passionate about.
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And I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out
examining and trying to figure out
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what causes scout mindset.
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Why are some people, sometimes at least,
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able to cut through their own prejudices
and biases and motivations
and biases and motivations
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and just try to see the facts
and the evidence
and the evidence
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as objectively as they can?
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And the answer is emotional.
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So, just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions
is rooted in emotions
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like defensiveness or tribalism,
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scout mindset is, too.
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It's just rooted in different emotions.
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For example, scouts are curious.
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They're more likely to say
they feel pleasure
they feel pleasure
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when they learn new information
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or an itch to solve a puzzle.
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They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something
when they encounter something
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that contradicts their expectations.
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Scouts also have different values.
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They're more likely to say
they think it's virtuous
they think it's virtuous
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to test your own beliefs,
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and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind
that someone who changes his mind
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seems weak.
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And above all, scouts are grounded,
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which means their self-worth as a person
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isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular topic.
they are about any particular topic.
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So they can believe
that capital punishment works.
that capital punishment works.
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If studies come out showing
that it doesn't, they can say,
that it doesn't, they can say,
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"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
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This cluster of traits
is what researchers have found --
is what researchers have found --
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and I've also found anecdotally --
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predicts good judgment.
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And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits
to leave you with about those traits
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is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are
not about how smart you are
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or about how much you know.
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In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all.
very much with IQ at all.
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They're about how you feel.
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There's a quote that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
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He's the author of "The Little Prince."
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He said, "If you want to build a ship,
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don't drum up your men
to collect wood and give orders
to collect wood and give orders
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and distribute the work.
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Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea."
for the vast and endless sea."
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In other words, I claim,
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if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals
our judgment as individuals
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and as societies,
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what we need most
is not more instruction in logic
is not more instruction in logic
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or rhetoric or probability or economics,
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even though those things
are quite valuable.
are quite valuable.
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But what we most need
to use those principles well
to use those principles well
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is scout mindset.
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We need to change the way we feel.
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We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed
instead of ashamed
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when we notice we might
have been wrong about something.
have been wrong about something.
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We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive
instead of defensive
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when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs.
that contradicts our beliefs.
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So the question I want
to leave you with is:
to leave you with is:
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What do you most yearn for?
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Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
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Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can?
as clearly as you possibly can?
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - WriterJulia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.
Why you should listen
Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast.
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com