TEDxPSU
Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
Julia Galef: 為什麼你會認為你是對的 － 儘管你是錯的
Filmed:
Readability: 4.5
4,082,284 views
看法就是一切，尤其是在解釋你的信念的時候。你是像士兵一樣嗎，願意不惜一切代價捍衛你的觀點，或者是像偵查員一樣，被好奇心激勵著？Julia Galef 研究了這兩種觀念模式背後的動機，以及它們如何影響我們解讀信息的方式，並結合了來自19世紀法國的可信的歷史教訓。當你們堅定的觀點受到質疑的時候，Galef問到：“你最渴望得到什麼？你是渴望捍衛你自己的信念還是渴望以盡可能清晰的方式來看這個世界？”
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
0
826
2643
我想請你們想像一下
00:15
that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle.
in the heat of battle.
1
3493
2380
你們是一位身處激烈戰爭的士兵。
00:18
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier
or a medieval archer
or a medieval archer
2
6730
3531
也許你們是一位羅馬步兵，或者是一位中世紀的弓箭手，
00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
3
10285
1880
或者是一位祖魯武士。
00:24
Regardless of your time and place,
there are some things that are constant.
there are some things that are constant.
4
12189
4254
不管你身處何時何地，有一些事情是不變的。
00:28
Your adrenaline is elevated,
5
16467
1894
你的腎上腺素都會上升，
00:30
and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
6
18385
4809
而且你的行為來自這些根深蒂固的本能反應，
00:35
reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side
to protect yourself and your side
7
23218
4356
建立在你需要保護你自己和你所屬的一方之上
00:39
and to defeat the enemy.
8
27598
1689
並且擊敗敵人的本能反應。
00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role,
playing a very different role,
9
30826
3537
現在，我想請你們想像自己扮演一個完全不同的角色，
00:46
that of the scout.
10
34387
1601
一個偵查員的角色。
00:48
The scout's job is not
to attack or defend.
to attack or defend.
11
36012
3389
偵查員的任務不是攻擊或者防守。
00:51
The scout's job is to understand.
12
39425
2395
偵查員的任務是理解。
00:54
The scout is the one going out,
13
42233
2061
偵查員需要走出去，
00:56
mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles.
identifying potential obstacles.
14
44318
4063
畫出地形圖，辨認出潛在的障礙物。
01:00
And the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge
that, say, there's a bridge
15
48405
3576
偵查員可能希望知道，比如，有一座橋
01:04
in a convenient location across a river.
16
52005
2334
在河上一個近便的位置。
01:06
But above all, the scout
wants to know what's really there,
wants to know what's really there,
17
54363
3047
但最重要的是，偵查員想要知道那裡真的有什麼，
01:09
as accurately as possible.
18
57434
1593
越準確越好。
01:12
And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential.
the soldier and the scout are essential.
19
60195
5046
在現實的軍隊中，士兵和偵查員都很重要。
01:17
But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset --
of these roles as a mindset --
20
65265
5310
但是你也可以把這兩種角色想像成兩種心態 －
01:22
a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas
process information and ideas
21
70599
3627
用來比喻在日常生活中，我們所有人
01:26
in our daily lives.
22
74250
1467
如何處理信息和想法。
01:28
What I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment,
is that having good judgment,
23
76192
3830
我今天要證明的是做出良好的判斷，
01:32
making accurate predictions,
making good decisions,
making good decisions,
24
80046
3214
準確的預測，良好的決定，
01:35
is mostly about which mindset you're in.
25
83284
2758
大部分都是關於你在哪個心態中。
01:38
To illustrate these mindsets in action,
26
86994
2593
為了用情節說明這些心態，
01:41
I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century France,
to 19th-century France,
27
89611
3484
我將把你們帶回到19世紀的法國，
01:45
where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper
piece of paper
28
93119
2983
在那裡，這張看起來無害的紙
01:48
launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history.
political scandals in history.
29
96126
3038
引發了歷史上最大的政治醜聞之一。
01:51
It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff.
by officers in the French general staff.
30
99718
4397
它是在1894年由法國總參謀部的官員發現的。
01:56
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
31
104616
2692
它被撕碎了，丟在廢紙簍裡，
01:59
but when they pieced it back together,
32
107332
1925
但是他們把它一片片復原，
02:01
they discovered
that someone in their ranks
that someone in their ranks
33
109281
2032
他們發現他們軍階中的某個人
02:03
had been selling
military secrets to Germany.
military secrets to Germany.
34
111337
2363
過去一直把軍事秘密賣給德國。
02:06
So they launched a big investigation,
35
114462
2357
所以他們進行了一場全面調查，
02:08
and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man,
quickly converged on this man,
36
116843
3866
然後他們的猜疑很快聚焦到這個人身上，
02:12
Alfred Dreyfus.
37
120733
1332
阿爾弗萊德·德萊弗斯。
02:14
He had a sterling record,
38
122867
1318
他有很優秀的記錄，
02:16
no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell.
no motive as far as they could tell.
39
124209
3520
過去沒有犯罪歷史，沒有他們所能指出的動機。
02:20
But Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
40
128342
5118
但是德萊弗斯是軍隊裡在這個軍階上的唯一的猶太人軍官，
02:25
and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
41
133484
4175
不幸的是，這一次法國軍隊高度反對猶太人。
02:29
They compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo
to that on the memo
42
137683
3222
他們把德萊弗斯的字跡和那張紙上的字跡進行比較
02:32
and concluded that it was a match,
43
140929
1937
然後得出結論，字跡匹配，
02:34
even though outside
professional handwriting experts
professional handwriting experts
44
142890
3042
儘管軍營外專業的字跡專家
02:37
were much less confident
in the similarity,
in the similarity,
45
145956
2150
對這個相似性沒有那麼大的把握，
02:40
but never mind that.
46
148130
1390
但是不用在意他們的看法。
02:41
They went and searched
Dreyfus's apartment,
Dreyfus's apartment,
47
149544
2040
他們去了德萊弗斯的公寓並進行搜查，
02:43
looking for any signs of espionage.
48
151608
1756
尋找任何諜報活動的痕跡。
02:45
They went through his files,
and they didn't find anything.
and they didn't find anything.
49
153388
2960
他們搜查了他的文件，但是他們什麼都沒找到。
02:48
This just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
50
156372
3134
這只是讓他們更加確信德萊弗斯不僅有罪，
02:51
but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence
he had hidden all of the evidence
51
159530
3293
而且很狡詐，因為很明顯他藏好了所有的證據
02:54
before they had managed to get to it.
52
162847
1849
在他們成功找到它們之前。
02:57
Next, they went and looked
through his personal history
through his personal history
53
165212
2692
然後，他們去查他的個人歷史
02:59
for any incriminating details.
54
167928
2301
尋找任何表明他有罪的細節。
03:02
They talked to his teachers,
55
170253
1602
他們和他的老師們談話，
03:03
they found that he had studied
foreign languages in school,
foreign languages in school,
56
171879
2785
他們發現他在學校學習過外語，
03:06
which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments
to conspire with foreign governments
57
174688
4053
這明顯表明一種，未來想要與外國政府密謀的想法。
03:10
later in life.
58
178765
1183
這明顯表明一種，未來想要與外國政府密謀的想法。
03:11
His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory,
was known for having a good memory,
59
179972
6011
他的老師們還說德萊弗斯因為他良好的記憶力而出名，
03:18
which was highly suspicious, right?
60
186007
2112
這十分可疑，對吧？
03:20
You know, because a spy
has to remember a lot of things.
has to remember a lot of things.
61
188143
3340
要知道，因為一名間諜必須記住很多事情。
03:24
So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
62
192439
3660
所以這個案件開始審理，然後德萊弗斯被判有罪。
03:28
Afterwards, they took him out
into this public square
into this public square
63
196816
3320
之後，他們把他帶到了公共廣場
03:32
and ritualistically tore
his insignia from his uniform
his insignia from his uniform
64
200160
3724
依照慣例取下他制服上的勳章
03:35
and broke his sword in two.
65
203908
1905
然後把他的劍折成兩半。
03:37
This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
66
205837
2015
這個被叫作德萊弗斯的屈辱。
03:40
And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment
to life imprisonment
67
208860
2517
他們把他終身監禁
03:43
on the aptly named Devil's Island,
68
211401
2740
關在一個恰好叫做惡魔島的島上，
03:46
which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America.
off the coast of South America.
69
214165
2824
它是一個鄰近南美洲海岸線的貧瘠的礁石。
03:49
So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone,
and there he spent his days alone,
70
217556
3750
所以他去了那裡，在那裡一個人度日，
03:53
writing letters and letters
to the French government
to the French government
71
221330
2504
寫了許許多多封信給法國政府，
03:55
begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence.
so they could discover his innocence.
72
223858
3308
請求他們再次審理他的案子，好讓他們可以意識到他的清白。
03:59
But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed.
France considered the matter closed.
73
227634
2913
但是對於大多數人來說，法國認為這件事結束了。
04:03
One thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
74
231301
4293
對我而言關於德萊弗斯事件有趣的一點
04:07
is this question of why the officers
were so convinced
were so convinced
75
235618
3778
是這個問題：為什麼官員們那麼確信
04:11
that Dreyfus was guilty.
76
239420
1721
德萊弗斯是有罪的。
04:13
I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up,
that they were setting him up,
77
241556
2847
我的意思是，你們甚至可能想，他們在誣陷他，
04:16
that they were intentionally framing him.
78
244427
1968
他們故意作偽證誣陷他。
04:18
But historians don't think
that's what happened.
that's what happened.
79
246419
2267
但是歷史學家認為那不是事實。
04:20
As far as we can tell,
80
248710
1159
我們目前能確定的是，
04:21
the officers genuinely believed
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
81
249893
4237
官員們真的認為對德萊弗斯不利的判決是理由充分的。
04:26
Which makes you wonder:
82
254154
2476
這會讓你想知道：
04:28
What does it say about the human mind
83
256654
2274
這件事和人類思想有什麼關係，
04:30
that we can find such paltry evidence
84
258952
2313
我們可以認為如此微不足道的證據
04:33
to be compelling enough to convict a man?
85
261289
2087
足夠有說服力來判定一個人有罪？
04:36
Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning."
call "motivated reasoning."
86
264210
4286
嗯，這就是科學家們稱作”動機性推理“的一個案例。
04:40
It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations,
our unconscious motivations,
87
268520
3054
在動機性推理這個情況下，我們無意識的動機，
04:43
our desires and fears,
88
271598
2352
我們的渴望和恐懼，
04:45
shape the way we interpret information.
89
273974
2346
影響了我們解讀信息的方式。
04:48
Some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies.
feel like our allies.
90
276344
3410
一些信息，一些想法像是我們的盟友。
04:51
We want them to win.
We want to defend them.
We want to defend them.
91
279778
2642
我們想要它們勝利。我們想要捍衛它們。
04:54
And other information
or ideas are the enemy,
or ideas are the enemy,
92
282444
2531
其它的信息或者想法是我們的敵人，
04:56
and we want to shoot them down.
93
284999
1568
我們想要把它們打倒。
04:59
So this is why I call
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
94
287408
3707
這就是為什麼我把動機性推理稱作“士兵心態”。
05:03
Probably most of you have never persecuted
95
291988
3005
我想，可能你們中的大多數人從未
因叛國罪而迫害過一名法國猶太血統的軍官，
05:07
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
96
295017
2281
因叛國罪而迫害過一名法國猶太血統的軍官，
05:09
I assume,
97
297322
1473
05:10
but maybe you've followed sports
or politics, so you might have noticed
or politics, so you might have noticed
98
298819
4859
但是也許你們曾關心運動或者政治，
所以你們可能曾經注意到
所以你們可能曾經注意到
05:15
that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul,
that your team committed a foul,
99
303702
4122
比如，當裁判判定你的球隊犯規的時候，
05:19
for example,
100
307848
1162
比如，當裁判判定你的球隊犯規的時候，
05:21
you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong.
to find reasons why he's wrong.
101
309034
3093
你就有高度動機，
去找裁判誤判的理由。
去找裁判誤判的理由。
05:24
But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul -- awesome!
committed a foul -- awesome!
102
312482
3112
但是如果裁判判定另一支球隊犯規 － 太棒了！
05:27
That's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely.
let's not examine it too closely.
103
315618
2562
那是一個很好的判決，我們不要太過追究。
05:30
Or, maybe you've read
an article or a study
an article or a study
104
318792
2117
或者，也許你讀過一篇文章或是一份研究
05:32
that examined some controversial policy,
105
320933
2706
關於一些有爭議政策的
05:35
like capital punishment.
106
323663
1216
比如死刑。
05:37
And, as researchers have demonstrated,
107
325735
2117
正如研究人員所證實的，
05:39
if you support capital punishment
108
327876
1705
如果你支持死刑
05:41
and the study shows
that it's not effective,
that it's not effective,
109
329605
2516
研究卻顯示死刑無效，
05:44
then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons
to find all the reasons
110
332145
3246
那麼你就有高度動機，
想找出所有的理由
想找出所有的理由
05:47
why the study was poorly designed.
111
335415
2173
說明為什麼這個研究設計得不好。
05:49
But if it shows
that capital punishment works,
that capital punishment works,
112
337612
2206
但是如果它表明死刑有效，
05:51
it's a good study.
113
339842
1159
太好了，它就是一份好的研究。
05:53
And vice versa: if you don't
support capital punishment, same thing.
support capital punishment, same thing.
114
341025
3248
反之亦然：如果你不支持死刑，同樣的道理。
05:56
Our judgment is strongly
influenced, unconsciously,
influenced, unconsciously,
115
344297
2829
我們的判斷，在毫無意識的情況下，很強烈地被
05:59
by which side we want to win.
116
347150
2278
我們希望獲勝的一方影響著。
06:02
And this is ubiquitous.
117
350071
1889
這是普遍存在的。
06:03
This shapes how we think
about our health, our relationships,
about our health, our relationships,
118
351984
3038
這決定了我們如何看待我們的健康，我們的人際關係，
06:07
how we decide how to vote,
119
355046
1896
我們如何決定怎樣投票，
06:08
what we consider fair or ethical.
120
356966
2368
我們認為什麼是公平或者道德。
06:12
What's most scary to me
about motivated reasoning
about motivated reasoning
121
360036
2763
對我而言，動機性推理，或者是士兵心態
06:14
or soldier mindset,
122
362823
1151
最可怕的地方，
06:15
is how unconscious it is.
123
363998
1247
是它有多麼不受意識控制。
06:17
We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded
objective and fair-minded
124
365269
3280
我們可能認為我們客觀公正，
06:20
and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man.
of an innocent man.
125
368573
3467
但最後仍然破壞了一個無辜的人的生活。
06:25
However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over.
his story is not over.
126
373008
2883
然而，對德萊弗斯而言，幸運的是，他的事件沒有結束。
06:27
This is Colonel Picquart.
127
375915
1368
這是皮卡爾上校。
06:29
He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army,
in the French Army,
128
377307
2544
他是法國軍隊中另一位高級官員，
06:31
and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
129
379875
2629
像大多數人一樣，他假定德萊弗斯是有罪的。
06:34
Also like most people in the army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
130
382893
4425
同時也像軍隊中的大多數人一樣，
他至少有不經意的反猶太情緒。
他至少有不經意的反猶太情緒。
06:39
But at a certain point,
Picquart began to suspect:
Picquart began to suspect:
131
387342
3365
但是在某一刻，皮卡爾開始懷疑：
06:43
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
132
391302
2775
“如果我們對於德萊弗斯的判定都錯了怎麼辦？”
06:46
What happened was,
he had discovered evidence
he had discovered evidence
133
394448
2178
接下來發生的是，他發現了證據
06:48
that the spying for Germany had continued,
134
396650
2477
德國間諜行為一直持續，
06:51
even after Dreyfus was in prison.
135
399151
1975
即使在德萊弗斯入獄以後。
06:53
And he had also discovered
that another officer in the army
that another officer in the army
136
401516
3296
他也發現了軍隊中的另一位軍官
06:56
had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo,
matched the memo,
137
404836
2573
有著和那張紙上的字跡非常吻合的字跡，
06:59
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
138
407433
2361
比德萊弗斯的字跡還要接近。
07:02
So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors,
to his superiors,
139
410382
2841
然後他把這些發現帶到他的上級面前，
07:06
but to his dismay,
they either didn't care
they either didn't care
140
414017
3677
但是讓他失望的是，他們若非不在意、
07:09
or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings,
to explain his findings,
141
417718
3588
就是給出精心變造的、
合理化的理由來解釋他的發現，
合理化的理由來解釋他的發現，
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy
Picquart, is that there's another spy
142
421330
5373
比如，“嗯，皮卡爾，你所展示的一切只能證明還有一個間諜
07:18
who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's handwriting,
Dreyfus's handwriting,
143
426727
2373
他學會了如何模仿德萊弗斯的字跡，
07:21
and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left.
after Dreyfus left.
144
429124
3540
他在德萊弗斯離開後接替了他的任務。
07:25
But Dreyfus is still guilty."
145
433148
1650
但是德萊弗斯仍然有罪。”
07:27
Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
146
435854
3025
最終，皮卡爾成功幫助德萊弗斯洗刷罪名。
07:30
But it took him 10 years,
147
438903
1528
但是這花了他10年的時間，
07:32
and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison
he himself was in prison
148
440455
2531
而且在這十年中，
他自己有一部分時間也是在監獄中度過的
他自己有一部分時間也是在監獄中度過的
07:35
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
149
443010
2298
因為對軍隊不忠的罪名。
07:38
A lot of people feel like Picquart
can't really be the hero of this story
can't really be the hero of this story
150
446491
6000
很多人認為皮卡爾不能真的成為這個事件的英雄
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite
and that's bad, which I agree with.
and that's bad, which I agree with.
151
452515
4229
因為他反猶太，這很不好，我也同意這一點。
07:49
But personally, for me,
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
152
457323
4651
但是，就我個人而言，皮卡爾反猶太的事實
07:53
actually makes his actions more admirable,
153
461998
2585
實際上讓他的行為更令人佩服，
07:56
because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased
the same reasons to be biased
154
464607
3116
因為他有相同的偏見，相同的讓自己變得不公正的原因，
07:59
as his fellow officers,
155
467747
1785
和他的同僚一樣，
08:01
but his motivation to find the truth
and uphold it trumped all of that.
and uphold it trumped all of that.
156
469556
4635
但是他尋找真相並堅守真相的動力勝過一切。
08:07
So to me,
157
475108
1189
所以對我而言，
08:08
Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset."
for what I call "scout mindset."
158
476321
3806
皮卡爾是一個具有我稱作“偵查員心態”的典型。
08:12
It's the drive not to make
one idea win or another lose,
one idea win or another lose,
159
480598
4076
不是一種要讓一種想法獲勝、
或者是另一種想法輸掉的慾望，
或者是另一種想法輸掉的慾望，
08:16
but just to see what's really there
160
484698
1924
而是僅僅發現那裡真的有什麼
08:18
as honestly and accurately as you can,
161
486646
2475
越誠實越準確越好，
08:21
even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant.
or convenient or pleasant.
162
489145
3280
即使那不美麗，不方便，不愉快。
08:25
This mindset is what
I'm personally passionate about.
I'm personally passionate about.
163
493444
3246
這種心態是我個人很有興趣的。
08:28
And I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out
examining and trying to figure out
164
496714
5129
我用過去幾年的時間研究並且試著發現
08:33
what causes scout mindset.
165
501867
1983
是什麼導致了偵查員心態。
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes at least,
166
503874
3148
為什麼有些人，至少有些時候，
08:39
able to cut through their own prejudices
and biases and motivations
and biases and motivations
167
507046
3788
可以不顧他們自己先入為主的觀念，偏見和動機
08:42
and just try to see the facts
and the evidence
and the evidence
168
510858
2295
只是以一種盡可能客觀的方式，尋找事實和證據？
08:45
as objectively as they can?
169
513177
1473
只是以一種盡可能客觀的方式，尋找事實和證據？
08:47
And the answer is emotional.
170
515602
3011
答案就是情緒。
08:51
So, just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions
is rooted in emotions
171
519119
3767
就像士兵心態根植於情緒中，
08:54
like defensiveness or tribalism,
172
522910
2988
比如防禦心或者同族意識，
08:58
scout mindset is, too.
173
526615
1366
偵查員心態也是這樣。
09:00
It's just rooted in different emotions.
174
528005
1986
它只是根植於不同的情緒中。
09:02
For example, scouts are curious.
175
530015
3419
比如，偵查員有好奇心。
09:05
They're more likely to say
they feel pleasure
they feel pleasure
176
533458
3546
他們更可能因為得到新的信息、
09:09
when they learn new information
177
537028
1660
或者是一種解決疑惑的渴望，
09:10
or an itch to solve a puzzle.
178
538712
2311
而說他們感到快樂。
09:13
They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something
when they encounter something
179
541544
3169
他們更可能感到有興趣，當他們遇到一些
09:16
that contradicts their expectations.
180
544737
2096
與他們預期相反的事情。
09:19
Scouts also have different values.
181
547206
1977
偵查員也有不同的價值觀。
09:21
They're more likely to say
they think it's virtuous
they think it's virtuous
182
549207
3072
他們更可能說他們認為
09:24
to test your own beliefs,
183
552303
1489
檢驗你自己的信念是品德高尚的表現，
09:25
and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind
that someone who changes his mind
184
553816
3706
他們比較不會說改變主意的人
09:29
seems weak.
185
557546
1262
看起來軟弱。
09:30
And above all, scouts are grounded,
186
558832
1885
最重要的是，偵查員腳踏實地，
09:32
which means their self-worth as a person
187
560741
3905
這意味著他們作為一個人的自我價值
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular topic.
they are about any particular topic.
188
564670
5466
與他們關於任何一個話題的立場
是多麼正確或是多麼錯誤無關。
是多麼正確或是多麼錯誤無關。
09:42
So they can believe
that capital punishment works.
that capital punishment works.
189
570160
3254
所以他們可能認為死刑有效。
09:45
If studies come out showing
that it doesn't, they can say,
that it doesn't, they can say,
190
573438
2813
如果研究表明死刑無效，他們可能會說，
09:48
"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
191
576275
3909
“呃，看來我可能錯了。這不意味著我很糟糕或者愚蠢。”
09:53
This cluster of traits
is what researchers have found --
is what researchers have found --
192
581954
4326
這些特質的集合是研究人員發現的 －
09:58
and I've also found anecdotally --
193
586304
1706
也是我通過軼事發現的 －
10:00
predicts good judgment.
194
588034
1831
可以預測良好判斷力的特質。
10:02
And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits
to leave you with about those traits
195
590386
3283
我想留給你們關於那些特質的最關鍵的一點
10:05
is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are
not about how smart you are
196
593693
3637
是它們不是主要關於你有多聰明
10:09
or about how much you know.
197
597354
1998
或者你知道多少。
10:11
In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all.
very much with IQ at all.
198
599376
2806
事實上，它們與智商根本沒多少聯繫。
10:14
They're about how you feel.
199
602638
1650
它們和你的感覺有關。
10:16
There's a quote that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
200
604849
4023
有一條我經常引用的語錄，聖修伯里說的。
10:20
He's the author of "The Little Prince."
201
608896
1941
他是《小王子》的作者。
10:22
He said, "If you want to build a ship,
202
610861
2769
他說，“如果你想造一艘船，
10:26
don't drum up your men
to collect wood and give orders
to collect wood and give orders
203
614234
4621
不要號召你的工人去收集木頭，發號命令，
10:30
and distribute the work.
204
618879
1420
然後分配工作。
10:32
Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea."
for the vast and endless sea."
205
620669
4567
反之，要教給他們對無邊無際的大海的渴望。“
10:38
In other words, I claim,
206
626252
2146
換句話而言，我會說，
10:40
if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals
our judgment as individuals
207
628850
3160
如果我們真的想要提高我們的判斷力，作為個體
10:44
and as societies,
208
632034
1443
並且作為社會群體，
10:45
what we need most
is not more instruction in logic
is not more instruction in logic
209
633501
3509
我們迫切需要的不是在邏輯方面
10:49
or rhetoric or probability or economics,
210
637034
3548
或是雄辯、概率、經濟方面更多的指導，
10:52
even though those things
are quite valuable.
are quite valuable.
211
640606
2083
儘管那些東西都很有價值。
10:54
But what we most need
to use those principles well
to use those principles well
212
642713
3304
我們最需要的可以讓我們充分利用那些原則的
10:58
is scout mindset.
213
646041
1418
是偵查員心態。
10:59
We need to change the way we feel.
214
647483
1880
我們需要改變我們感覺事物的方式。
11:01
We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed
instead of ashamed
215
649759
3810
我們需要學會如何感到驕傲而不是羞愧
11:05
when we notice we might
have been wrong about something.
have been wrong about something.
216
653593
2638
當我們意識到我們可能做錯什麼事的時候。
11:08
We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive
instead of defensive
217
656255
3128
我們需要學會如何感到有興趣而不是有防禦心
11:11
when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs.
that contradicts our beliefs.
218
659407
4243
當我們遇到一些與我們信念相反的信息的時候。
11:16
So the question I want
to leave you with is:
to leave you with is:
219
664555
2860
所以我想要留給你們的問題就是：
11:19
What do you most yearn for?
220
667817
2150
你們最想要什麼？
11:22
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
221
670771
2627
你們想要捍衛你們的信念？
11:26
Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can?
as clearly as you possibly can?
222
674128
3594
還是你們想要盡可能清晰地看這個世界？
11:30
Thank you.
223
678352
1151
謝謝。
11:31
(Applause)
224
679527
4997
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - WriterJulia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.
Why you should listen
Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast.
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com