TED2016
Parag Khanna: How megacities are changing the map of the world
帕拉格·坎纳: 大城市如何改变世界版图
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“我要各位重新想象地球上生活的组织架构，”全球战略家帕拉格·坎纳如是说。随着交通运输、能源、通讯网络的发展，城市之间的互通性进一步强化，我们讨论的地理也转变成他称作的“互联地理”。这个逐渐扩张的国际文明网络承担着减少污染、缓解社会不平等现象的责任，甚至还有消除地缘政治的敌对行为的责任。在这个演讲中，坎那希望我们拥抱未来的新准则：“互联才是宿命。”
Parag Khanna - Global strategist
Geopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders. Full bio
Geopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.
how life is organized on earth.
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我想让各位重新想象
地球生活的组织架构。
地球生活的组织架构。
00:18
Think of the planet
like a human body that we inhabit.
like a human body that we inhabit.
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把整个星球当作我们生存的身体。
00:24
The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,
of roads and railways,
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它的骨骼就是交通系统，
有公路、铁路、
有公路、铁路、
00:28
bridges and tunnels, air and seaports
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桥梁、隧道、航线、海港，
00:31
that enable our mobility
across the continents.
across the continents.
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这些让我们得以在大陆间穿行。
00:34
The vascular system that powers the body
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驱动人体的血液循环系统，
00:38
are the oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.
and electricity grids.
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就是石油、天然气管道，
还有电网，
还有电网，
00:40
that distribute energy.
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它们分配能源。
00:42
And the nervous system of communications
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主管通讯的神经系统，
00:45
is the Internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks
satellites, cellular networks
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就是网络电缆、卫星、
蜂窝网络、数据中心，
蜂窝网络、数据中心，
00:49
and data centers that allow
us to share information.
us to share information.
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它们让人类共享信息。
00:53
This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix
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这个无限扩张的基础设施网络，
00:57
already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,
kilometers of roads,
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已经包含了6400万公里的公路，
01:02
four million kilometers of railways,
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400万公里的铁路，
01:05
two million kilometers of pipelines
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200万公里的管道，
01:08
and one million kilometers
of Internet cables.
of Internet cables.
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还有100万公里的网络电缆。
01:13
What about international borders?
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国界又如何呢？
01:16
We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.
500,000 kilometers of borders.
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国界的总长度不到50万公里。
01:21
Let's build a better map of the world.
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让我们绘制一幅更好的世界地图。
01:24
And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.
some ancient mythology.
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我们可以从打破旧的流言开始。
01:29
There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:
all students of history are familiar:
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有一个说法是历史系学生很熟悉的：
01:33
"Geography is destiny."
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“地理就是宿命。”
01:35
Sounds so grave, doesn't it?
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听起来好沉重，对吧？
01:38
It's such a fatalistic adage.
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这就是句宿命论的格言。
01:40
It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,
are condemned to be poor,
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它告诉我们，内陆的国家
注定就是贫穷的，
注定就是贫穷的，
01:44
that small countries
cannot escape their larger neighbors,
cannot escape their larger neighbors,
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小国家没法逃脱大邻居的控制，
01:47
that vast distances are insurmountable.
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漫长的距离是无法逾越的。
01:51
But every journey I take around the world,
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但是在我的每次环球旅行中，
01:55
I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:
sweeping the planet:
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我看到一个更伟大的力量席卷地球：
01:59
connectivity.
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互联性。
02:02
The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --
in all of its forms --
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这个全球的互联革命，
它所有的形式——
它所有的形式——
02:05
transportation, energy
and communications --
and communications --
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交通、能源、通信——
02:08
has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,
in the mobility of people,
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让一切获得了质变，
包括人类的流动性，
包括人类的流动性，
02:12
of goods, of resources, of knowledge,
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还有商品、资源、知识，
02:15
such that we can no longer even think
of geography as distinct from it.
of geography as distinct from it.
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以至于我们无法将地理
与这些因素分立开来。
与这些因素分立开来。
02:20
In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together
as fusing together
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事实上，我认为这两股力量
是融汇合一的，
是融汇合一的，
02:24
into what I call "connectography."
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我把它称为“互联地理”。
02:28
Connectography represents a quantum leap
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互联地理代表了质的飞跃，
02:32
in the mobility of people,
resources and ideas,
resources and ideas,
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包括人类、资源和思路的流动性，
02:35
but it is an evolution,
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然而它是一次进化，
02:38
an evolution of the world
from political geography,
from political geography,
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这种全球进化是从政治地理——
02:44
which is how we legally divide the world,
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我们依照法律分割世界的方式，
02:48
to functional geography,
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转变为功能地理——
02:50
which is how we actually use the world,
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我们实际运用世界的方式，
02:52
from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.
to infrastructure and supply chains.
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从国家与边界的讨论，
转为基础设施与供应链的讨论。
转为基础设施与供应链的讨论。
02:57
Our global system is evolving
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我们的地球系统正在进化，
03:01
from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,
empires of the 19th century,
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从19世纪垂直一体化的帝国，
03:04
through the horizontally interdependent
nations of the 20th century,
nations of the 20th century,
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变成20世纪横向相互依存的国家，
03:09
into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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直到21世纪的国际网络化文明。
03:15
Connectivity, not sovereignty,
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互联，而非主权，
03:18
has become the organizing principle
of the human species.
of the human species.
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已经成为人类的组织原则。
03:22
(Applause)
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（掌声）
03:27
We are becoming
this global network civilization
this global network civilization
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我们正在变成这种国际网络化文明，
03:30
because we are literally building it.
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因为我们就在建造它。
03:33
All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending taken together
and military spending taken together
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全世界的国防预算和军事开销总和，
03:37
total just under
two trillion dollars per year.
two trillion dollars per year.
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每年接近两万亿美元。
03:40
Meanwhile, our global
infrastructure spending
infrastructure spending
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与此同时，国际的基础设施建设，
03:42
is projected to rise
to nine trillion dollars per year
to nine trillion dollars per year
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预计会突破每年九万亿美元，
03:46
within the coming decade.
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就在接下来的十年时间。
03:47
And, well, it should.
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其实理应如此。
03:49
We have been living
off an infrastructure stock
off an infrastructure stock
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我们所利用的基础设施配置，
03:52
meant for a world population
of three billion,
of three billion,
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只够三十亿世界人口使用，
03:55
as our population has crossed
seven billion to eight billion
seven billion to eight billion
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而我们的人口要超过七十亿，
朝八十亿迈进，
朝八十亿迈进，
03:58
and eventually nine billion and more.
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最终会达到九十亿甚至更多。
04:01
As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about one trillion dollars
about one trillion dollars
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根据以往经验，
我们应该花费大约一万亿美金，
我们应该花费大约一万亿美金，
04:06
on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.
of every billion people in the world.
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为了满足每十亿人口的
基本基础设施需求。
基本基础设施需求。
04:11
Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.
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不出奇的，亚洲领先全球。
04:15
In 2015, China announced the creation
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在2015年，中国宣布成立
04:17
of the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank,
Investment Bank,
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亚洲基础设施投资银行，
04:21
which together with a network
of other organizations
of other organizations
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它与一系列其它组织一道，
04:25
aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,
of iron and silk roads,
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旨在建设一个钢铁与丝绸的商路网，
04:28
stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.
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从上海延伸到里斯本。
04:31
And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,
engineering unfolds,
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而随着这个地质学工程的展开，
04:35
we will likely spend more
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
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我们可能会在未来40年
花更多钱建设基础设施，
花更多钱建设基础设施，
04:41
we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,
in the next 40 years,
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未来40年会比以往4000年
04:44
than we have in the past 4,000 years.
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建造更多的基础设施。
04:48
Now let's stop and think
about it for a minute.
about it for a minute.
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现在让我们停下来思考思考。
04:51
Spending so much more on building
the foundations of global society
the foundations of global society
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我们花了这么多钱
来建造这些国际社会的基础，
来建造这些国际社会的基础，
04:56
rather than on the tools to destroy it
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而非发明拆毁这些的工具，
04:59
can have profound consequences.
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这可能有深远的后果。
05:01
Connectivity is how
we optimize the distribution
we optimize the distribution
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互联性是我们优化
全球人口与资源分布的方法。
05:04
of people and resources around the world.
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05:07
It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.
than just the sum of its parts.
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这是人类做到
“1+1>2”的办法。
“1+1>2”的办法。
05:12
I believe that is what is happening.
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我相信这是正在发生的事。
05:17
Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the 21st century:
in the 21st century:
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互联性在21世纪
有另一个附属的超级浪潮：
有另一个附属的超级浪潮：
05:20
planetary urbanization.
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全球范围的城市化。
05:24
Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.
that most define us.
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城市是最能定义我们的基础设施。
05:27
By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population
of the world's population
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到2030年，世界人口超过三分之二
05:31
will live in cities.
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会住在城市里。
05:32
And these are not
mere little dots on the map,
mere little dots on the map,
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这些可不只是地图上的小点点，
05:35
but they are vast archipelagos
stretching hundreds of kilometers.
stretching hundreds of kilometers.
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他们是延伸上百公里的群岛。
05:39
Here we are in Vancouver,
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我们现在在温哥华，
05:40
at the head of the Cascadia Corridor
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卡斯卡迪亚走廊的起点，
05:42
that stretches south
across the US border to Seattle.
across the US border to Seattle.
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它一直往南延伸，
通过美国边境直到西雅图。
通过美国边境直到西雅图。
05:46
The technology powerhouse
of Silicon Valley
of Silicon Valley
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超级科技中心——硅谷，
05:48
begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose
down to San Jose
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北起旧金山，南至圣何塞，
05:51
and across the bay to Oakland.
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一路跨过海湾到奥克兰。
05:53
The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego
now passes San Diego
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洛杉矶城现在已经扩张到了圣迭戈，
05:56
across the Mexican border to Tijuana.
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甚至跨过墨西哥边境到了蒂华纳。
05:58
San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal
now share an airport terminal
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圣迭戈和蒂华纳现在
已经共享一个机场了，
已经共享一个机场了，
06:01
where you can exit into either country.
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你可以从机场直接到两个国家之一。
06:04
Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.
may connect the entire Pacific spine.
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最终，一个高速铁路网
可能连接整个太平洋脊柱：
可能连接整个太平洋脊柱：
06:09
America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York
begins in Boston through New York
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美国东北部的人口稠密区，
始于波士顿，跨过纽约，
始于波士顿，跨过纽约，
06:13
and Philadelphia to Washington.
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直到费城还有华盛顿。
06:15
It contains more than 50 million people
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这里有超过五千万人口，
06:17
and also has plans
for a high-speed rail network.
for a high-speed rail network.
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也有计划建设一个高铁网络。
06:20
But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.
the megacities coming together.
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但是只有在亚洲
我们才真正看到大城市的互联。
我们才真正看到大城市的互联。
06:25
This continuous strip of light
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
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从东京，经过名古屋到大阪，
这一条延绵的光带，
这一条延绵的光带，
06:29
contains more than 80 million people
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有着超过八千万的人口，
06:31
and most of Japan's economy.
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承载着大部分的日本经济。
06:34
It is the world's largest megacity.
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这就是世界上最大的特大城市。
06:37
For now.
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目前是的。
06:38
But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together
are coming together
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然而在中国，
特大城市群正在诞生，
特大城市群正在诞生，
06:41
with populations
reaching 100 million people.
reaching 100 million people.
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人口数量可达到一亿。
06:44
The Bohai Rim around Beijing,
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北京附近的渤海湾，
06:46
The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai
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上海附近的长江三角洲，
06:48
and the Pearl River Delta,
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还有珠江三角洲，
06:50
stretching from Hong Kong
north to Guangzhou.
north to Guangzhou.
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从香港向北延伸至广州。
06:52
And in the middle,
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在中部地区，
06:54
the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,
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重庆-成都特大城市群，
06:57
whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size
is almost the same size
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这里的地理足迹
规模可以与奥地利相比。
规模可以与奥地利相比。
06:59
as the country of Austria.
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07:03
And any number of these megacity clusters
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而且这些特大城市群中的任一个，
07:05
has a GDP approaching
two trillion dollars --
two trillion dollars --
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都有将近两万亿美金的
国内生产总值，
国内生产总值，
07:08
that's almost the same
as all of India today.
as all of India today.
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这几乎跟现在的印度一样了。
07:11
So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20,
institutions, such as the G20,
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所以想象一下，
如果国际的外交组织，比如G20，
如果国际的外交组织，比如G20，
07:17
were to base their membership
on economic size
on economic size
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把会员资格按照经济规模来评定，
07:20
rather than national representation.
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而非按照主权国家，
07:23
Some Chinese megacities
may be in and have a seat at the table,
may be in and have a seat at the table,
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有一些中国的特大城市
就可以入选，并且有自己的席位，
就可以入选，并且有自己的席位，
07:26
while entire countries,
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
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然而另一些完整的国家，
比如阿根廷或印度尼西亚就会落选。
比如阿根廷或印度尼西亚就会落选。
07:32
Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,
will soon exceed that of China,
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再看看印度，它的人口数
很快就要超过中国，
很快就要超过中国，
07:35
it too has a number of megacity clusters,
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它同样有一些特大城市群，
07:38
such as the Delhi Capital Region
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比如说德里首都地区，
07:40
and Mumbai.
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还有孟买地区。
07:42
In the Middle East,
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在中东地区，
07:43
Greater Tehran is absorbing
one third of Iran's population.
one third of Iran's population.
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大德黑兰地区正在吸收
伊朗三分之一的人口。
伊朗三分之一的人口。
07:46
Most of Egypt's 80 million people
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埃及八千万人口中的大部分，
07:48
live in the corridor
between Cairo and Alexandria.
between Cairo and Alexandria.
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都住在开罗和亚历山大城
之间的走廊地区。
之间的走廊地区。
07:51
And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,
of city-states is forming,
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而在海湾地区，
一连串的城邦在形成，
一连串的城邦在形成，
07:55
from Bahrain and Qatar,
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从巴林和卡塔尔，
07:56
through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.
to Muscat in Oman.
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穿过阿联酋，到阿曼首都马斯喀特。
08:00
And then there's Lagos,
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还有拉各斯，
08:02
Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commercial hub.
and Nigeria's commercial hub.
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非洲最大的城市，
也是尼日利亚的商业中心。
也是尼日利亚的商业中心。
08:06
It has plans for a rail network
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它计划建设铁路网，
08:08
that will make it the anchor
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
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这可以让它成为
大西洋沿海走廊的支柱城市，
大西洋沿海走廊的支柱城市，
08:13
stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,
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整条走廊经过贝宁、多哥、加纳，
08:16
to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.
of the Ivory Coast.
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一直到科特迪瓦的首都阿比让。
08:19
But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.
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但是这些国家都在拉各斯城郊。
08:24
In a megacity world,
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在特大城市构成的世界里，
08:25
countries can be suburbs of cities.
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国家可以是城市的郊区。
08:30
By 2030, we will have as many
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
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到2030年，世界上会有
接近50个这样的特大城市群。
接近50个这样的特大城市群。
08:37
So which map tells you more?
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所以哪幅地图信息更多呢？
08:39
Our traditional map
of 200 discrete nations
of 200 discrete nations
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是我们传统的地图，
标注着分散的200个国家，
标注着分散的200个国家，
08:42
that hang on most of our walls,
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挂在大部分的墙上，
08:44
or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?
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还是这一幅，
描绘着50个特大城市群的地图？
描绘着50个特大城市群的地图？
08:48
And yet, even this is incomplete
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其实就算这幅都是不完整的，
08:50
because you cannot understand
any individual megacity
any individual megacity
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因为你不可能彻底了解
任一个独立的特大城市，
任一个独立的特大城市，
08:54
without understanding
its connections to the others.
its connections to the others.
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除非明白它与其他城市的关联。
08:58
People move to cities to be connected,
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人们搬迁到城市是为了互相联系，
09:01
and connectivity
is why these cities thrive.
is why these cities thrive.
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而互联性正是城市发展繁荣的原因。
09:05
Any number of them,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
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不论是哪些城市，
像圣保罗、伊斯坦布尔或者莫斯科，
像圣保罗、伊斯坦布尔或者莫斯科，
09:09
has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half
one third of one half
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它们的GDP都接近或超过
全国GDP的三分之一到一半。
09:13
of their entire national GDP.
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09:16
But equally importantly,
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然而同等重要的是，
09:17
you cannot calculate
any of their individual value
any of their individual value
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你不能单独计算它们独立的价值，
09:20
without understanding
the role of the flows of people,
the role of the flows of people,
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除非理解了人口流动的作用，
09:24
of finance, of technology
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还有资金、科技的流动，
09:26
that enable them to thrive.
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它们让特大城市得以繁荣。
09:28
Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,
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以南非的豪登省为例，
09:31
which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.
and the capital Pretoria.
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它包含了约翰内斯堡
和南非首都比勒陀利亚。
和南非首都比勒陀利亚。
09:34
It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.
a third of South Africa's GDP.
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它占了南非三分之一以上的GDP。
09:38
But equally importantly,
it is home to the offices
it is home to the offices
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但同等重要的是，
几乎每一个跨国企业
几乎每一个跨国企业
09:41
of almost every single
multinational corporation
multinational corporation
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都选择入驻此地，
09:44
that invests directly into South Africa
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它们直接为南非注资，
09:47
and indeed, into the entire
African continent.
African continent.
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甚至，向整个非洲大陆注资。
09:50
Cities want to be part
of global value chains.
of global value chains.
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城市渴望成为国际价值链中的一环。
09:54
They want to be part
of this global division of labor.
of this global division of labor.
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它们渴望成为国际劳动分工的一环。
09:58
That is how cities think.
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这是城市的思考方式。
10:00
I've never met a mayor who said to me,
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我从没见过一个市长会这样说：
10:02
"I want my city to be cut off."
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“我想让我的城市与世隔绝。”
10:04
They know that their cities belong as much
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他们很清楚，他们的城市属于
国际网络化文明，
国际网络化文明，
10:07
to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.
as to their home countries.
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就像它属于自己国家一样。
10:14
Now, for many people,
urbanization causes great dismay.
urbanization causes great dismay.
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如今对于很多人来说，
城市化造成了大众恐慌。
城市化造成了大众恐慌。
10:18
They think cities are wrecking the planet.
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他们觉得城市正在毁坏地球。
10:21
But right now,
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然而现在，
10:23
there are more than 200
intercity learning networks thriving.
intercity learning networks thriving.
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有超过200个跨城市学习网络
正在发展繁荣。
正在发展繁荣。
10:27
That is as many as the number
of intergovernmental organizations
of intergovernmental organizations
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这数量几乎与
所有的跨政府组织相当了。
所有的跨政府组织相当了。
10:30
that we have.
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10:32
And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,
are devoted to one purpose,
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所有的跨城市网络
都有一个共同目标，
都有一个共同目标，
10:36
mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:
in the 21st century:
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也是21世纪人类的首要目标：
10:41
sustainable urbanization.
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可持续的城市化。
10:44
Is it working?
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它有效吗？
10:46
Let's take climate change.
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让我们看看气候变化情况。
10:48
We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris
in New York and Paris
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我们很清楚，
纽约和巴黎的一次次峰会
纽约和巴黎的一次次峰会
10:51
is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
greenhouse gas emissions.
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2800
并不会减少温室气体排放。
10:54
But what we can see
is that transferring technology
is that transferring technology
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但是我们可以看到，
在城市之间传输科技，
在城市之间传输科技，
10:57
and knowledge and policies between cities
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还有知识、政策等等，
11:00
is how we've actually begun to reduce
the carbon intensity of our economies.
the carbon intensity of our economies.
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的确可以减少经济体的碳排放强度。
11:05
Cities are learning from each other.
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城市在互相取长补短。
11:07
How to install zero-emissions buildings,
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例如怎么建设零排放建筑，
11:09
how to deploy electric
car-sharing systems.
car-sharing systems.
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怎么实施电动车分享计划。
11:12
In major Chinese cities,
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在中国的大城市，
11:14
they're imposing quotas
on the number of cars on the streets.
on the number of cars on the streets.
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他们正在实施车辆限行政策。
11:17
In many Western cities,
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在很多西方城市，
11:18
young people don't even
want to drive anymore.
want to drive anymore.
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2320
年轻人甚至都不想开车了。
11:21
Cities have been part of the problem,
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城市曾是问题的一部分，
11:23
now they are part of the solution.
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2000
但现在是解决方案的一部分。
11:26
Inequality is the other great challenge
to achieving sustainable urbanization.
to achieving sustainable urbanization.
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4600
社会不平等是可持续城市化的
另一个重大挑战。
另一个重大挑战。
11:31
When I travel through megacities
from end to end --
from end to end --
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3416
当我跑遍全世界的特大城市，
11:35
it takes hours and days --
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花了许多个日夜，
11:37
I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity
of extreme disparity
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3736
我感受到了悬殊差距造成的悲剧，
11:41
within the same geography.
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1920
就在同一片区域里。
11:44
And yet, our global stock
of financial assets
of financial assets
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然而国际的金融资产
11:47
has never been larger,
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从来没有如此之多，
11:48
approaching 300 trillion dollars.
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接近三百万亿美金。
11:52
That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.
the actual GDP of the world.
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这几乎是全世界GDP总和的四倍。
11:56
We have taken on such enormous debts
since the financial crisis,
since the financial crisis,
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我们在金融危机后
背负了极多的债务，
背负了极多的债务，
12:01
but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?
in inclusive growth?
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但是我们把钱投资在了
包容性增长吗？
包容性增长吗？
12:04
No, not yet.
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不，还没有。
12:07
Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,
affordable public housing,
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只有我们建造了充足、
价格实惠的公共住房，
价格实惠的公共住房，
12:11
when we invest in robust
transportation networks
transportation networks
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只有我们投资建造了
耐用的交通网络，
耐用的交通网络，
12:14
to allow people to connect to each other
both physically and digitally,
both physically and digitally,
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使得人们可以身体和信息上
都实现互联互通，
都实现互联互通，
12:19
that's when our divided
cities and societies
cities and societies
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我们分离的城市和社会
12:21
will come to feel whole again.
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才能开始成为一个整体。
12:23
(Applause)
224
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（掌声）
12:27
And that is why infrastructure
has just been included
has just been included
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这就是为什么基础建设项目
12:30
in the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals,
Sustainable Development Goals,
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已经被包括在
联合国可持续发展目标中，
联合国可持续发展目标中，
12:33
because it enables all the others.
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因为它激活了大众生产力。
12:36
Our political and economic leaders
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我们的政治经济领袖
12:37
are learning that connectivity
is not charity,
is not charity,
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慢慢意识到互联性并不是搞慈善，
12:41
it's opportunity.
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1200
而是一个机会。
12:43
And that's why our financial community
needs to understand
needs to understand
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这就是为什么
我们的经济社会必须明白，
我们的经济社会必须明白，
12:45
that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st century.
important asset class of the 21st century.
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5000
互联性是21世纪最重要的一种资产。
12:52
Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,
more sustainable,
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如今，城市可以让世界更加可持续，
12:56
they can make the world more equitable,
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它们让世界更加公正，
12:58
I also believe that
connectivity between cities
connectivity between cities
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我也相信城市间的互联
13:01
can make the world more peaceful.
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可以让世界更和平。
13:04
If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,
with dense relations across borders,
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如果我们看看那些
边境间联系紧密的地区，
边境间联系紧密的地区，
13:08
we see more trade, more investment
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我们看到更多的交易和投资，
13:11
and more stability.
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地区也更稳定。
13:12
We all know the story
of Europe after World War II,
of Europe after World War II,
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我们都知道二战后欧洲的故事，
13:15
where industrial integration
kicked off a process
kicked off a process
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2576
工业合作推进了发展过程，
13:17
that gave rise to today's
peaceful European Union.
peaceful European Union.
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最终构成了如今和平的欧盟。
13:21
And you can see that Russia, by the way,
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而且你们还能看到俄罗斯，
13:23
is the least connected of major powers
in the international system.
in the international system.
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4000
它是全世界的各强国中
互联性最差的国家。
互联性最差的国家。
13:28
And that goes a long way
towards explaining the tensions today.
towards explaining the tensions today.
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这要追溯到很久以前
才能解释当今的冲突问题。
才能解释当今的冲突问题。
13:32
Countries that have
less stake in the system
less stake in the system
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与别国利害关系不强的国家，
13:34
also have less to lose in disturbing it.
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往往不愿冒风险打破这种状态。
13:38
In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map
that matter most on the map
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在北美，地图上意义最重大的一条线
13:41
are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,
or the US-Mexico border,
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3776
并不是美加边境或者美墨边境，
13:45
but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines
and railways and pipelines
250
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3376
而是公路、铁路、管道的交织网络，
13:48
and electricity grids
and even water canals
and even water canals
251
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2856
还有电力网络，甚至是运河系统，
13:51
that are forming an integrated
North American union.
North American union.
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3816
一个和谐的北美联盟因这些而形成。
13:55
North America does not need more walls,
it needs more connections.
it needs more connections.
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北美不需要更多的壁垒，
它需要更多的连接。
它需要更多的连接。
14:00
(Applause)
254
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2640
（掌声）
14:07
But the real promise of connectivity
is in the postcolonial world.
is in the postcolonial world.
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但是互联性的真正前景
会在殖民统治后的地区体现。
会在殖民统治后的地区体现。
14:12
All of those regions where borders
have historically been the most arbitrary
have historically been the most arbitrary
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840240
4336
这部分地区，
它们的边境是历史上最多变的，
它们的边境是历史上最多变的，
14:16
and where generations of leaders
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844600
1936
一代又一代领导者
14:18
have had hostile relations
with each other.
with each other.
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2616
相互的冲突非常激烈。
14:21
But now a new group of leaders
has come into power
has come into power
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2376
但是一群新的领导者逐渐上位，
14:23
and is burying the hatchet.
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把过往冲突逐渐抹去。
14:25
Let's take Southeast Asia,
where high-speed rail networks
where high-speed rail networks
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以东南亚为例，
他们准备建设高铁网络，
他们准备建设高铁网络，
14:28
are planned to connect
Bangkok to Singapore
Bangkok to Singapore
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连接曼谷到新加坡，
14:31
and trade corridors
from Vietnam to Myanmar.
from Vietnam to Myanmar.
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还有越南到缅甸的商业走廊。
14:34
Now this region of 600 million people
coordinates its agricultural resources
coordinates its agricultural resources
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5536
如今这个6亿人口的地区
调配了它的农业资源，
调配了它的农业资源，
14:39
and its industrial output.
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1400
还有工业输出。
14:41
It is evolving
into what I call a Pax Asiana,
into what I call a Pax Asiana,
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4656
它逐渐进化为我称作的
“泛亚洲大同”，
“泛亚洲大同”，
14:46
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.
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2840
东南亚国家的和平地区。
14:50
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,
is underway in East Africa,
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3136
类似的现象在东非也发生了，
14:53
where a half dozen countries
269
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1376
那里的六个国家
14:54
are investing in railways
and multimodal corridors
and multimodal corridors
270
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3296
投资建设铁路和多式联运通道，
14:57
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.
can get their goods to market.
271
885920
3136
于是内陆的国家可以
将商品运输到市场上。
将商品运输到市场上。
15:01
Now these countries
coordinate their utilities
coordinate their utilities
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如今这些国家在调控它们的资源，
15:03
and their investment policies.
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调整它们的投资政策。
15:05
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.
into a Pax Africana.
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3800
他们同样进化成“泛非洲大同”。
15:11
One region we know could
especially use this kind of thinking
especially use this kind of thinking
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我们知道有一个地区
可以利用这样的思维方式，
可以利用这样的思维方式，
15:14
is the Middle East.
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那就是中东地区。
15:16
As Arab states tragically collapse,
277
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随着阿拉伯政权的悲剧倒台，
15:18
what is left behind
but the ancient cities,
but the ancient cities,
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除了开罗、贝鲁特和巴格达等古城外，
15:21
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?
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还能留下什么呢？
15:24
In fact, the nearly
400 million people of the Arab world
400 million people of the Arab world
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事实上，阿拉伯世界的将近4亿人
15:29
are almost entirely urbanized.
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2096
几乎全数城市化了。
15:31
As societies, as cities,
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1896
作为完整的城市或社会，
15:33
they are either water rich or water poor,
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2256
它们的水资源可能丰富或是匮乏，
15:35
energy rich or energy poor.
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能源可能丰富或是匮乏。
15:38
And the only way
to correct these mismatches
to correct these mismatches
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唯一能够解决这种失调的办法，
15:40
is not through more wars and more borders,
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928960
2616
并不是通过战争和边境隔离，
15:43
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.
of pipelines and water canals.
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3840
而是通过更多的管道、运河连接。
15:48
Sadly, this is not yet
the map of the Middle East.
the map of the Middle East.
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3936
很可惜，这还不是中东地区的图景。
15:52
But it should be,
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940000
1200
但理应如此，
15:54
a connected Pax Arabia,
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一个互联的“泛阿拉伯大同”，
15:58
internally integrated
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1696
从内部互相整合，
16:00
and productively connected
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
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4296
并与它们的邻居在生产力方面联系：
例如欧洲、亚洲和非洲。
例如欧洲、亚洲和非洲。
16:04
Now, it may not seem like connectivity
is what we want right now
is what we want right now
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952680
3096
如今，看上去互联性
并不是我们立即想要的东西，
并不是我们立即想要的东西，
16:07
towards the world's most turbulent region.
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2040
尤其对于世界上最动荡的区域。
16:10
But we know from history
that more connectivity is the only way
that more connectivity is the only way
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958600
3616
但我们由历史规律得知，
互联性是唯一的方法，
互联性是唯一的方法，
16:14
to bring about stability in the long run.
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962240
2496
让一个地区获得长期的稳定。
16:16
Because we know
that in region after region,
that in region after region,
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2696
因为我们知道，
在一个又一个地区，
在一个又一个地区，
16:19
connectivity is the new reality.
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2936
互联性是新的现实。
16:22
Cities and countries
are learning to aggregate
are learning to aggregate
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3136
城市和国家在逐渐整合，
16:25
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.
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973600
2480
成为更和平、更繁荣的整体。
16:29
But the real test is going to be Asia.
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977760
2320
但是亚洲才是真正的试金石。
16:33
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivalry
the patterns of rivalry
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2936
互联性可否克服远东强国之间
16:36
among the great powers of the Far East?
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984000
2576
种种竞争行为呢？
16:38
After all, this is where World War III
is supposed to break out.
is supposed to break out.
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986600
4360
毕竟这里是第三次世界大战
理应爆发的地方。
理应爆发的地方。
16:43
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter century ago,
a quarter century ago,
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991920
3136
自从二十多年前冷战结束之后，
16:47
at least six major wars
have been predicted for this region.
have been predicted for this region.
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995080
3376
至少有六次大规模战争
被预测会在这个地区发生。
被预测会在这个地区发生。
16:50
But none have broken out.
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998480
1600
但没有一个真正爆发。
16:53
Take China and Taiwan.
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1001160
1560
以中国和台湾为例，
16:55
In the 1990s, this was everyone's
leading World War III scenario.
leading World War III scenario.
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1003560
4616
在20世纪90年代，
所有人都觉得这是三战的背景。
所有人都觉得这是三战的背景。
17:00
But since that time,
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1008200
1496
但是自那时起，
17:01
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits have become so intense
across the straits have become so intense
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1009720
4496
海峡两岸之间的贸易和投资额
变得非常高，
变得非常高，
17:06
that last November,
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1216
以至于去年十一月，
17:07
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit
held a historic summit
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2856
双方领导人举行了一次历史性峰会，
17:10
to discuss eventual
peaceful reunification.
peaceful reunification.
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2840
探讨未来如何实现和平统一。
17:13
And even the election
of a nationalist party in Taiwan
of a nationalist party in Taiwan
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1021960
2816
即使是台湾的一个党派，
17:16
that's pro-independence earlier this year
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1024800
2776
今年早些时候还主张台湾独立，
17:19
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.
this fundamental dynamic.
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1027599
2480
在进行选举时也没有否认
这种基础的变革力量。
这种基础的变革力量。
17:23
China and Japan have
an even longer history of rivalry
an even longer history of rivalry
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1031359
2897
中日两国之间的敌对关系
有更长的历史，
有更长的历史，
17:26
and have been deploying
their air forces and navies
their air forces and navies
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1034280
2415
而且最近在部署海军和空军，
17:28
to show their strength in island disputes.
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1036720
2160
在岛屿争端中互相展示军力。
17:31
But in recent years,
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1039520
1216
然而在最近几年，
17:32
Japan has been making
its largest foreign investments in China.
its largest foreign investments in China.
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1040760
4136
日本在中国做了
历史上最多的对外投资。
历史上最多的对外投资。
17:36
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.
in record numbers there.
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1044920
2720
日本汽车在中国的销量屡创纪录。
17:40
And guess where
the largest number of foreigners
the largest number of foreigners
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1048440
2936
各位猜猜今天
永久居住在日本的外国人
永久居住在日本的外国人
17:43
residing in Japan today comes from?
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1051400
2120
最多来自哪个国家呢？
17:46
You guessed it: China.
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1054120
1800
你猜对了——就是中国。
17:49
China and India have fought a major war
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1057520
1896
中国和印度打过一场大战，
17:51
and have three outstanding
border disputes,
border disputes,
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1059440
2056
还有三处突出的边界争端问题，
17:53
but today India is the second
largest shareholder
largest shareholder
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1061520
2456
然而如今印度是
17:56
in the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank.
Investment Bank.
330
1064000
2416
亚投行的第二持股国。
17:58
They're building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India
stretching from Northeast India
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1066440
3256
他们正在建设一条贸易通路，
起于印度东北部，
起于印度东北部，
18:01
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.
to Southern China.
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1069720
3920
穿过缅甸和孟加拉国，
终于中国华南地区。
终于中国华南地区。
18:06
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
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1074320
3856
他们的贸易额已经从
10年前的大约200亿美元，
10年前的大约200亿美元，
18:10
to 80 billion dollars today.
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1078200
1600
发展到如今的800亿美元。
18:12
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan
have fought three wars
have fought three wars
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1080600
3016
持有核武器的印度和巴基斯坦
打了三场战争，
打了三场战争，
18:15
and continue to dispute Kashmir,
336
1083640
2216
持续地争夺克什米尔地区，
18:17
but they're also negotiating
a most-favored-nation trade agreement
a most-favored-nation trade agreement
337
1085880
3536
但是他们同样在商讨
一个最惠国贸易协定，
一个最惠国贸易协定，
18:21
and want to complete a pipeline
338
1089440
1736
并且希望建设一条管道，
18:23
stretching from Iran
through Pakistan to India.
through Pakistan to India.
339
1091200
3976
始于伊朗，穿过巴基斯坦，
终于印度。
终于印度。
18:27
And let's talk about Iran.
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1095200
1560
让我们再谈谈伊朗。
18:29
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
341
1097880
3200
两年前的我们不是觉得
对伊朗的战争根本不可避免吗？
对伊朗的战争根本不可避免吗？
18:33
Then why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?
rushing to do business there today?
342
1101760
4720
那么为什么现在每个大国
都争着去伊朗做生意呢？
都争着去伊朗做生意呢？
18:40
Ladies and gentlemen,
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1108560
1256
女士们、先生们，
18:41
I cannot guarantee
that World War III will not break out.
that World War III will not break out.
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1109840
4000
我不能担保第三次世界大战
永远不会爆发。
永远不会爆发。
18:46
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.
why it hasn't happened yet.
345
1114640
3000
但是我们可以清楚的看到
现在它为什么没有爆发。
现在它为什么没有爆发。
18:50
Even though Asia is home
to the world's fastest growing militaries,
to the world's fastest growing militaries,
346
1118680
3696
即使亚洲一些国家
军力发展速度世界领先，
军力发展速度世界领先，
18:54
these same countries
are also investing billions of dollars
are also investing billions of dollars
347
1122400
3576
同样的国家也互相投资数十亿美金，
18:58
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.
and supply chains.
348
1126000
2936
来建设基础设施和供应链。
19:00
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography
in each other's functional geography
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1128960
3816
他们更感兴趣的是
各自的功能地理特征，
各自的功能地理特征，
19:04
than in their political geography.
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1132800
2456
而非政治地理特征。
19:07
And that is why their leaders think twice,
step back from the brink,
step back from the brink,
351
1135280
5056
这就是为什么领导人要三思，
从战争边缘后退几步，
从战争边缘后退几步，
19:12
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.
over territorial tensions.
352
1140360
4560
决定去关注经济的合作，
而非领土的争端。
而非领土的争端。
19:18
So often it seems
like the world is falling apart,
like the world is falling apart,
353
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2600
我们常常觉得世界就要崩溃了，
19:21
but building more connectivity
354
1149760
1936
但是互联性的增强
19:23
is how we put Humpty Dumpty
back together again,
back together again,
355
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3120
就是我们把碎片复原的办法，
19:27
much better than before.
356
1155480
1760
而且复原得比原来更好。
19:29
And by wrapping the world
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1157960
1256
当我们把全世界
从物质和信息方面
从物质和信息方面
19:31
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,
and digital connectivity,
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1159240
3456
用无缝的互联网络覆盖，
19:34
we evolve towards a world
359
1162720
2176
我们的世界将会让人
突破地理的限制。
突破地理的限制。
19:36
in which people can rise
above their geographic constraints.
above their geographic constraints.
360
1164920
3520
19:40
We are the cells and vessels
361
1168920
3176
我们就是细胞和血管，
19:44
pulsing through these global
connectivity networks.
connectivity networks.
362
1172120
3216
在这个国际网络中脉动。
19:47
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online
of people go online
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1175360
3656
每天，数以亿计的人登上互联网，
19:51
and work with people they've never met.
364
1179040
2616
与从未谋面的人共同工作。
19:53
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,
cross borders every year,
365
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3496
每年超过十亿人要跨过国家边界，
19:57
and that's expected to rise
to three billion in the coming decade.
to three billion in the coming decade.
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1185200
3920
而且将会在未来十年升至三十亿。
20:02
We don't just build connectivity,
367
1190200
2496
我们不只是互联性的建设者，
20:04
we embody it.
368
1192720
1320
我们自身就体现了互联。
20:06
We are the global network civilization,
369
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3336
我们是国际网络化文明，
20:10
and this is our map.
370
1198320
1880
而这是我们的地图。
20:13
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.
geography is no longer destiny.
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1201240
4400
这幅地图里，
地理不再是我们的宿命。
地理不再是我们的宿命。
20:18
Instead, the future
has a new and more hopeful motto:
has a new and more hopeful motto:
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1206560
4040
与之相对，我们的未来
有一条更有希望的新准则：
有一条更有希望的新准则：
20:23
connectivity is destiny.
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1211400
1960
“互联就是命运。”
谢谢各位。
20:26
Thank you.
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1216
20:27
(Applause)
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6229
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Parag Khanna - Global strategistGeopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders.
Why you should listen
Global theorist Parag Khanna travels the world with his eyes open -- seeing patterns emerging from the chaos of today’s complex world. In his new book, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization, he redraws the way humanity is organized according to lines of infrastructure and connectivity rather than our antiquated political borders.
At TED2016, he presented glowing maps of our hyper-connected global network civilization. Previously, at TEDGlobal 2009, Khanna spoke about "Mapping the future of countries," and at TEDGlobal 2012, he curated and guest-hosted the session "The Upside of Transparency."
Parag Khanna | Speaker | TED.com