TED2016
Parag Khanna: How megacities are changing the map of the world
帕瑞格．卡納: 大城市如何改變我們的世界地圖？
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全球策略專家，帕瑞格．卡納（Parag Khanna）說，「我要各位重新想像一下地球上的生活是如何組織起來的？」。「當我們不斷擴張的城市因運輸、能源、通訊網路的發展，產生了前所未有的連結性同時，也讓我們的世界地圖從地緣性演化到一種他稱之為『連結地緣性』的發展狀態。」「這個新興的全球網路文明會堅持降低汙染與減少不公平的承諾--甚至克服地緣政治性的衝突競爭。在這段談話中，卡納邀請我們迎接一個新的大未來：連結才是我們的命運。」
Parag Khanna - Global strategist
Geopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders. Full bio
Geopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I want you to reimagine
how life is organized on earth.
how life is organized on earth.
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我要各位重新想像一下，地球上的生活
是如何被組織起來的。
是如何被組織起來的。
00:18
Think of the planet
like a human body that we inhabit.
like a human body that we inhabit.
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想像一下我們居住的地球
像是一個人類的身體。
像是一個人類的身體。
00:24
The skeleton is the transportation system
of roads and railways,
of roads and railways,
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身體的骨架是運輸系統
有道路和鐵路、
有道路和鐵路、
00:28
bridges and tunnels, air and seaports
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橋樑、隧道、機場、海港
00:31
that enable our mobility
across the continents.
across the continents.
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讓我們可以在世界各國旅行。
00:34
The vascular system that powers the body
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石油天然氣的管線
像是我們的心血管系統，
像是我們的心血管系統，
00:38
are the oil and gas pipelines
and electricity grids.
and electricity grids.
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驅動著我們的身體，
而電力網路可以運送能量。
00:40
that distribute energy.
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00:42
And the nervous system of communications
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負責溝通的神經系統
00:45
is the Internet cables,
satellites, cellular networks
satellites, cellular networks
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有網路纜線、衛星、行動網路、
00:49
and data centers that allow
us to share information.
us to share information.
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以及資料中心可以讓我們分享資訊。
00:53
This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix
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這個一直不斷擴張的
基礎建設矩陣，
基礎建設矩陣，
00:57
already consists of 64 million
kilometers of roads,
kilometers of roads,
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已經建造了6400萬公里的道路、
01:02
four million kilometers of railways,
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400萬公里的鐵路、
01:05
two million kilometers of pipelines
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200萬公里的管道線路
01:08
and one million kilometers
of Internet cables.
of Internet cables.
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以及100萬公里的網路纜線。
01:13
What about international borders?
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那國與國的國界線呢？
01:16
We have less than
500,000 kilometers of borders.
500,000 kilometers of borders.
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我們至少有50萬公里的國界線。
01:21
Let's build a better map of the world.
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讓我們來建立一個更好的世界地圖。
01:24
And we can start by overcoming
some ancient mythology.
some ancient mythology.
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我們可以從打破一些
古老的錯誤觀念開始。
古老的錯誤觀念開始。
01:29
There's a saying with which
all students of history are familiar:
all students of history are familiar:
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歷史系的學生對這句話都很孰悉：
01:33
"Geography is destiny."
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＂地緣性決定了命運＂。
01:35
Sounds so grave, doesn't it?
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聽起來很嚴肅莊重，對吧？
01:38
It's such a fatalistic adage.
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多麼宿命的一句格言。
01:40
It tells us that landlocked countries
are condemned to be poor,
are condemned to be poor,
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它告訴我們，內陸國家就是注定貧窮，
01:44
that small countries
cannot escape their larger neighbors,
cannot escape their larger neighbors,
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小國與鄰近大國之間
01:47
that vast distances are insurmountable.
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遙遠的距離是無法逾越的。
01:51
But every journey I take around the world,
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但在我世界各地的旅程當中，
01:55
I see an even greater force
sweeping the planet:
sweeping the planet:
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我看到了一個更大的
趨勢正在席捲全球：
趨勢正在席捲全球：
01:59
connectivity.
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連結。
02:02
The global connectivity revolution,
in all of its forms --
in all of its forms --
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全球連結的革命，大致上有這些--
02:05
transportation, energy
and communications --
and communications --
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運輸、能源、通訊--
02:08
has enabled such a quantum leap
in the mobility of people,
in the mobility of people,
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這些連結使得流動性人口、
02:12
of goods, of resources, of knowledge,
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貨物、資源、知識，
有了跳躍性的增長，
有了跳躍性的增長，
02:15
such that we can no longer even think
of geography as distinct from it.
of geography as distinct from it.
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我們再也不會認為地緣性
是造就彼此落差的原因。
是造就彼此落差的原因。
02:20
In fact, I view the two forces
as fusing together
as fusing together
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事實上，我看見這兩股力量
正在融合成一個字：
正在融合成一個字：
02:24
into what I call "connectography."
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我稱它為"連結地緣性"現象。
連結地緣性現象，
02:28
Connectography represents a quantum leap
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象徵了流動性人口、
資源、想法的大躍進，
資源、想法的大躍進，
02:32
in the mobility of people,
resources and ideas,
resources and ideas,
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02:35
but it is an evolution,
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但它也是一種演化現象，
02:38
an evolution of the world
from political geography,
from political geography,
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一種世界從法定國界的「政治地緣性」
演化到「地理機能性」的過程。
演化到「地理機能性」的過程。
02:44
which is how we legally divide the world,
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02:48
to functional geography,
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「地理機能性」實際上談的就是
02:50
which is how we actually use the world,
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我們如何使用這個世界，
02:52
from nations and borders,
to infrastructure and supply chains.
to infrastructure and supply chains.
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一種從國家與國界的關係演化到
基礎設施與供應鏈關係的過程。
基礎設施與供應鏈關係的過程。
02:57
Our global system is evolving
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我們的全球系統正在演化，
03:01
from the vertically integrated
empires of the 19th century,
empires of the 19th century,
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從19世紀的垂直整合帝國時代，
03:04
through the horizontally interdependent
nations of the 20th century,
nations of the 20th century,
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演化到20世紀的水平
相互依存的國家時代，
相互依存的國家時代，
03:09
into a global network civilization
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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進入到21世紀的全球網路文明時代。
03:15
Connectivity, not sovereignty,
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連結性無關國家主權，
03:18
has become the organizing principle
of the human species.
of the human species.
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它已經變成我們人類
相互連結的組織大綱。
相互連結的組織大綱。
03:22
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:27
We are becoming
this global network civilization
this global network civilization
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我們正在進入一種
全球網路文明的世代，
全球網路文明的世代，
03:30
because we are literally building it.
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因為這完全是由大家一起建立的。
03:33
All of the world's defense budgets
and military spending taken together
and military spending taken together
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全球的軍事預算加總起來，
03:37
total just under
two trillion dollars per year.
two trillion dollars per year.
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每年都不到兩兆美金。
03:40
Meanwhile, our global
infrastructure spending
infrastructure spending
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同時間，全球的基礎設施費用
03:42
is projected to rise
to nine trillion dollars per year
to nine trillion dollars per year
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未來的10年，預計每年將達到9兆美金。
03:46
within the coming decade.
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沒錯，本就該如此。
03:47
And, well, it should.
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03:49
We have been living
off an infrastructure stock
off an infrastructure stock
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我們過去全球有30億人口
仰賴這些基礎建設生活
仰賴這些基礎建設生活
03:52
meant for a world population
of three billion,
of three billion,
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現在已經跨越70億
邁向80億人口的大關，
邁向80億人口的大關，
03:55
as our population has crossed
seven billion to eight billion
seven billion to eight billion
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03:58
and eventually nine billion and more.
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而最終會超過90億人口。
04:01
As a rule of thumb, we should spend
about one trillion dollars
about one trillion dollars
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整體而言，全球平均每10億人口，
04:06
on the basic infrastructure needs
of every billion people in the world.
of every billion people in the world.
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就會有一兆美金的基礎建設開銷。
04:11
Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.
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想當然爾，亞洲就是領頭羊。
04:15
In 2015, China announced the creation
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2015年，中國宣布成立
04:17
of the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank,
Investment Bank,
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亞洲基礎建設投資銀行，
（簡稱：亞投行）
（簡稱：亞投行）
04:21
which together with a network
of other organizations
of other organizations
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成立宗旨是，連結其它國家
04:25
aims to construct a network
of iron and silk roads,
of iron and silk roads,
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一起建立起
一帶一路的互聯經濟網。
一帶一路的互聯經濟網。
04:28
stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.
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一路從上海延伸到
里斯本（葡萄牙首都）
里斯本（葡萄牙首都）
04:31
And as all of this topographical
engineering unfolds,
engineering unfolds,
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而因為這些重大地質工程的發展，
04:35
we will likely spend more
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
on infrastructure in the next 40 years,
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我們接下來的40年將會增加很多開銷，
04:41
we will build more infrastructure
in the next 40 years,
in the next 40 years,
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接下來40年基礎建設的總開銷
04:44
than we have in the past 4,000 years.
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將會超過我們過去四千年來的總開銷。
04:48
Now let's stop and think
about it for a minute.
about it for a minute.
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現在，讓我們停下腳步想一想。
04:51
Spending so much more on building
the foundations of global society
the foundations of global society
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花這麼多錢在建築這些
全球社會的基礎工程上，
全球社會的基礎工程上，
04:56
rather than on the tools to destroy it
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比起建造出破壞地球的武器
04:59
can have profound consequences.
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肯定有更深遠的影響。
05:01
Connectivity is how
we optimize the distribution
we optimize the distribution
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連結性就是一門
我們要如何完善地分配
我們要如何完善地分配
05:04
of people and resources around the world.
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全球人力與資源的學問。
05:07
It is how mankind comes to be more
than just the sum of its parts.
than just the sum of its parts.
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它是一門如何讓大家團結起來
不要各自分散資源的學問。
不要各自分散資源的學問。
05:12
I believe that is what is happening.
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我相信，這就是現在正在發生的事情。
05:17
Connectivity has a twin megatrend
in the 21st century:
in the 21st century:
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連結性在21世紀有股大趨勢：
05:20
planetary urbanization.
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全球性的都市化。
05:24
Cities are the infrastructures
that most define us.
that most define us.
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都市的基礎設施定義了我們。
05:27
By 2030, more than two thirds
of the world's population
of the world's population
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到2030年前，全球超過三分之二的人口
會居住在城市裡。
05:31
will live in cities.
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05:32
And these are not
mere little dots on the map,
mere little dots on the map,
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這些人口居住的地方
並不是圖上的小光點，
並不是圖上的小光點，
05:35
but they are vast archipelagos
stretching hundreds of kilometers.
stretching hundreds of kilometers.
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而是延綿好幾百公里的大型島狀光點。
05:39
Here we are in Vancouver,
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這裡是我們現在的所在地溫哥華，
05:40
at the head of the Cascadia Corridor
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從卡斯卡迪亞走廊的頂端
05:42
that stretches south
across the US border to Seattle.
across the US border to Seattle.
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跨過美國邊境，向南延申到西雅圖。
05:46
The technology powerhouse
of Silicon Valley
of Silicon Valley
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科技重鎮矽谷
05:48
begins north of San Francisco
down to San Jose
down to San Jose
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從舊金山北部延伸到聖荷西，
05:51
and across the bay to Oakland.
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橫跨一個海灣來到奧克蘭。
05:53
The sprawl of Los Angeles
now passes San Diego
now passes San Diego
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洛杉磯城市的延伸帶
經過聖地亞哥
經過聖地亞哥
05:56
across the Mexican border to Tijuana.
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跨過莫斯哥邊境來到蒂華納。
05:58
San Diego and Tijuana
now share an airport terminal
now share an airport terminal
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聖地亞哥和蒂華納
現在共用一個機場航站，
現在共用一個機場航站，
06:01
where you can exit into either country.
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讓你可以進出兩邊的國家。
06:04
Eventually, a high-speed rail network
may connect the entire Pacific spine.
may connect the entire Pacific spine.
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最後，高速鐵路網可能會
連結整個東太平洋。
連結整個東太平洋。
06:09
America's northeastern megalopolis
begins in Boston through New York
begins in Boston through New York
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美國東北部的超大型都會區，
從波士頓開始經過紐約
從波士頓開始經過紐約
06:13
and Philadelphia to Washington.
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和費城來到華盛頓。
06:15
It contains more than 50 million people
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這裡面住了5000萬人口，
06:17
and also has plans
for a high-speed rail network.
for a high-speed rail network.
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目前也有一個高速鐵路計畫。
06:20
But Asia is where we really see
the megacities coming together.
the megacities coming together.
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但亞洲讓我們真正目睹了
大型都會區的百花齊放。
大型都會區的百花齊放。
06:25
This continuous strip of light
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka
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這條連續的光點從東京開始
經過名古屋到大阪，
經過名古屋到大阪，
06:29
contains more than 80 million people
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裡面超過8000萬的人口，
06:31
and most of Japan's economy.
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扛起了日本的主要經濟。
06:34
It is the world's largest megacity.
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它目前是全世界最大的大型城市。
06:37
For now.
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06:38
But in China, megacity clusters
are coming together
are coming together
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在中國，人口到達一億的
超大型都會區也很多，
超大型都會區也很多，
06:41
with populations
reaching 100 million people.
reaching 100 million people.
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06:44
The Bohai Rim around Beijing,
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北京周邊的環渤海都會區，
06:46
The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai
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上海周邊的長江三角洲都會區，
06:48
and the Pearl River Delta,
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與珠江三角洲周邊的都會區，
06:50
stretching from Hong Kong
north to Guangzhou.
north to Guangzhou.
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從香港往北延伸到廣州的都會區。
06:52
And in the middle,
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在中間，
06:54
the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,
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還有重慶 、 成都特大城市都會區，
06:57
whose geographic footprint
is almost the same size
is almost the same size
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它們的地形面積幾乎與
奧地利這個國家差不多。
奧地利這個國家差不多。
06:59
as the country of Austria.
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07:03
And any number of these megacity clusters
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而這些大型都會區，
07:05
has a GDP approaching
two trillion dollars --
two trillion dollars --
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每一區都將近有二兆美金的GDP--
07:08
that's almost the same
as all of India today.
as all of India today.
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幾乎與今日的印度相當。
07:11
So imagine if our global diplomatic
institutions, such as the G20,
institutions, such as the G20,
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所以，想像一下，如果我們的
全球外交機構，像是G20高峰會，
全球外交機構，像是G20高峰會，
07:17
were to base their membership
on economic size
on economic size
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是用經濟規模而不是用國家代表
07:20
rather than national representation.
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來做為入會資格的話。
07:23
Some Chinese megacities
may be in and have a seat at the table,
may be in and have a seat at the table,
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有一些中國的大型城市，
有許都會有一席之地，
有許都會有一席之地，
07:26
while entire countries,
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.
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而像阿根廷和印尼這樣的
國家就沒有位子了。
國家就沒有位子了。
07:32
Moving to India, whose population
will soon exceed that of China,
will soon exceed that of China,
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我們來談談印度，
它的人口即將超越中國，
它的人口即將超越中國，
07:35
it too has a number of megacity clusters,
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它也有一些超大型都會區，
07:38
such as the Delhi Capital Region
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像是首都德里都會區
07:40
and Mumbai.
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和孟買。
07:42
In the Middle East,
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在中東，
07:43
Greater Tehran is absorbing
one third of Iran's population.
one third of Iran's population.
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大德黑蘭都會區容納了
三分之一伊朗的人口。
三分之一伊朗的人口。
07:46
Most of Egypt's 80 million people
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埃及的8000萬人口
07:48
live in the corridor
between Cairo and Alexandria.
between Cairo and Alexandria.
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大部分都住在開羅和
亞歷山大之間的走廊。
亞歷山大之間的走廊。
07:51
And in the gulf, a necklace
of city-states is forming,
of city-states is forming,
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而海灣、項鍊型的
衛星城市也正在成型，
衛星城市也正在成型，
07:55
from Bahrain and Qatar,
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像是巴林和卡達，
07:56
through the United Arab Emirates
to Muscat in Oman.
to Muscat in Oman.
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通過阿拉伯聯合大公國
到阿曼的馬斯卡特的都會區。
到阿曼的馬斯卡特的都會區。
08:00
And then there's Lagos,
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然後還有拉各斯都會區，
08:02
Africa's largest city
and Nigeria's commercial hub.
and Nigeria's commercial hub.
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在非洲最大的城市和
奈及利亞的商業中心，
奈及利亞的商業中心，
08:06
It has plans for a rail network
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有一個鐵路網的規劃，
08:08
that will make it the anchor
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,
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它在大西洋沿岸走廊
扮演了重要的角色，
扮演了重要的角色，
08:13
stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,
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鐵路橫跨了貝寧、多哥和加納拉伸，
08:16
to Abidjan, the capital
of the Ivory Coast.
of the Ivory Coast.
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到阿比讓，象牙海岸的首都。
但是，這些國家都是拉各斯的城郊。
08:19
But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.
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08:24
In a megacity world,
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在大型城市的世界裡，
08:25
countries can be suburbs of cities.
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國家會變成這些城市的城郊。
08:30
By 2030, we will have as many
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.
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到2030年前，全球將會有
50個像這樣的超大型都會區。
50個像這樣的超大型都會區。
08:37
So which map tells you more?
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所以，哪一種地圖給你的資訊比較多？
08:39
Our traditional map
of 200 discrete nations
of 200 discrete nations
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是掛在我們自家牆上
傳統的200個獨立國家的地圖，
08:42
that hang on most of our walls,
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08:44
or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?
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還是這一張有50個
超大型都會區的地圖？
超大型都會區的地圖？
08:48
And yet, even this is incomplete
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當然，即使這樣仍不夠完整，
08:50
because you cannot understand
any individual megacity
any individual megacity
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因為，如果你沒有了解
它們彼此的連結性關係，
它們彼此的連結性關係，
08:54
without understanding
its connections to the others.
its connections to the others.
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你也不會了解各別的大型城市。
08:58
People move to cities to be connected,
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人們搬到城市裡被連結起來，
09:01
and connectivity
is why these cities thrive.
is why these cities thrive.
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而連結性造就了這些城市的繁榮。
09:05
Any number of them,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,
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其中任何一個城市，如聖保羅或
伊斯坦布爾或莫斯科，
伊斯坦布爾或莫斯科，
09:09
has a GDP approaching or exceeding
one third of one half
one third of one half
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它們的GDP都已經高達或超過
整個國家GDP的1/3到50%。
整個國家GDP的1/3到50%。
09:13
of their entire national GDP.
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09:16
But equally importantly,
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但同樣重要的是，
09:17
you cannot calculate
any of their individual value
any of their individual value
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如果你不了解它們的人流、金流、科技
09:20
without understanding
the role of the flows of people,
the role of the flows of people,
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這些使它們繁榮的原因，
09:24
of finance, of technology
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你也無法計算它們的個別價值。
09:26
that enable them to thrive.
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09:28
Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,
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以南非的豪登省為例，
09:31
which contains Johannesburg
and the capital Pretoria.
and the capital Pretoria.
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它包含了約翰尼斯堡
與首都比勒陀利亞。
與首都比勒陀利亞。
09:34
It too represents just over
a third of South Africa's GDP.
a third of South Africa's GDP.
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它的GDP表現也超過
1/3的南非總體GDP。
1/3的南非總體GDP。
09:38
But equally importantly,
it is home to the offices
it is home to the offices
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但同樣重要的是，它出名的特色還有
09:41
of almost every single
multinational corporation
multinational corporation
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就是幾乎每一個跨國企業
都有在南非做直接投資。
09:44
that invests directly into South Africa
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2216
09:47
and indeed, into the entire
African continent.
African continent.
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當然，也包含投資整個非洲大陸。
09:50
Cities want to be part
of global value chains.
of global value chains.
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每個城市都想成為
全球價值鏈的一份子。
全球價值鏈的一份子。
09:54
They want to be part
of this global division of labor.
of this global division of labor.
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它們都想成為「全球分工」的一份子。
09:58
That is how cities think.
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這是每個城市都在想的事。
10:00
I've never met a mayor who said to me,
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我從未遇過一個市長跟我說，
10:02
"I want my city to be cut off."
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「我想讓我的城市被排除掉」。
10:04
They know that their cities belong as much
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他們知道，他們的城市
也是全球網路文明的一部分，
也是全球網路文明的一部分，
10:07
to the global network civilization
as to their home countries.
as to their home countries.
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就如同它們是
自己國家的一部分一樣。
自己國家的一部分一樣。
10:14
Now, for many people,
urbanization causes great dismay.
urbanization causes great dismay.
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現今，有很多人對都市化的現象很灰心。
10:18
They think cities are wrecking the planet.
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他們認為這些城市正在破壞地球。
10:21
But right now,
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但如今，
10:23
there are more than 200
intercity learning networks thriving.
intercity learning networks thriving.
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已經有超過200個網際城市
了解到互聯可以帶來繁榮。
了解到互聯可以帶來繁榮。
10:27
That is as many as the number
of intergovernmental organizations
of intergovernmental organizations
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這個數字
與我們的政府組織一樣多。
10:30
that we have.
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10:32
And all of these intercity networks
are devoted to one purpose,
are devoted to one purpose,
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4376
所有的這些網際城市的互動
都致力於一個目標，
都致力於一個目標，
10:36
mankind's number one priority
in the 21st century:
in the 21st century:
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人類21世紀的首重之重：
10:41
sustainable urbanization.
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永續的城市發展。
10:44
Is it working?
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有成效了嗎？
10:46
Let's take climate change.
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我們看一下氣候變化。
10:48
We know that summit after summit
in New York and Paris
in New York and Paris
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我們知道，紐約與巴黎
一次又一次的氣候大會
一次又一次的氣候大會
10:51
is not going to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
greenhouse gas emissions.
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2800
也無法降低溫室效應氣體的排放。
10:54
But what we can see
is that transferring technology
is that transferring technology
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但我們可以看到，
城市間的運輸科技與知識
城市間的運輸科技與知識
10:57
and knowledge and policies between cities
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還有政策，已經讓我們開始了解
11:00
is how we've actually begun to reduce
the carbon intensity of our economies.
the carbon intensity of our economies.
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如何降低對碳排放的濃度。
11:05
Cities are learning from each other.
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城市間彼此學習。
11:07
How to install zero-emissions buildings,
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如何設計零排放的建築，
11:09
how to deploy electric
car-sharing systems.
car-sharing systems.
200
657800
3136
如何配置電動車共乘系統。
11:12
In major Chinese cities,
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在中國的主要城市中，
11:14
they're imposing quotas
on the number of cars on the streets.
on the number of cars on the streets.
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3056
他們已經開始限制
路上汽車的配額。
路上汽車的配額。
11:17
In many Western cities,
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在很多西方的城市，
11:18
young people don't even
want to drive anymore.
want to drive anymore.
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2320
年輕人甚至已經不想開車了。
11:21
Cities have been part of the problem,
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2216
城市曾經是問題製造者，
11:23
now they are part of the solution.
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2000
現在它們是提供解決方法的一份子。
11:26
Inequality is the other great challenge
to achieving sustainable urbanization.
to achieving sustainable urbanization.
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4600
要達成永續城市發展，
不平等也是要面對的挑戰之一。
不平等也是要面對的挑戰之一。
11:31
When I travel through megacities
from end to end --
from end to end --
208
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3416
當我在這些大型都會區旅行時--
11:35
it takes hours and days --
209
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花了幾個小時或幾天--
11:37
I experience the tragedy
of extreme disparity
of extreme disparity
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我體驗到同一地區
也有極不公平的事。
11:41
within the same geography.
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11:44
And yet, our global stock
of financial assets
of financial assets
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即使我們全球股市的資產
11:47
has never been larger,
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已經高達將近300兆美金。
11:48
approaching 300 trillion dollars.
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3496
11:52
That's almost four times
the actual GDP of the world.
the actual GDP of the world.
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3400
這大約是全球GDP的四倍。
11:56
We have taken on such enormous debts
since the financial crisis,
since the financial crisis,
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704520
4456
我們從金融海嘯後
也創造了龐大的債務，
也創造了龐大的債務，
12:01
but have we invested them
in inclusive growth?
in inclusive growth?
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但我們對他們已有相對等的投資嗎？
12:04
No, not yet.
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不，還沒有。
12:07
Only when we build sufficient,
affordable public housing,
affordable public housing,
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只有當我們蓋好夠多、
夠便宜的大眾住宅，
夠便宜的大眾住宅，
12:11
when we invest in robust
transportation networks
transportation networks
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投資大量的運輸網路
12:14
to allow people to connect to each other
both physically and digitally,
both physically and digitally,
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讓人們可以進行實體與
數位上的溝通連結，
數位上的溝通連結，
12:19
that's when our divided
cities and societies
cities and societies
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到那時候，所有的城市與社會，
12:21
will come to feel whole again.
223
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才會感受到彼此的溫暖。
12:23
(Applause)
224
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2840
（掌聲）
12:27
And that is why infrastructure
has just been included
has just been included
225
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這也是為什麼基礎設施的發展
12:30
in the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals,
Sustainable Development Goals,
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2456
會成為聯合國永續發展的目標之一，
12:33
because it enables all the others.
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因為這讓所有人都受益。
12:36
Our political and economic leaders
228
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我們的政治和財經領導人
12:37
are learning that connectivity
is not charity,
is not charity,
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745920
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已經瞭解到，連結性並不是做慈善，
12:41
it's opportunity.
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1200
它是機會。
12:43
And that's why our financial community
needs to understand
needs to understand
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2736
這也是為什麼我們的財政界需要了解
12:45
that connectivity is the most
important asset class of the 21st century.
important asset class of the 21st century.
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5000
連結是21世紀最重要的學習課程。
12:52
Now, cities can make the world
more sustainable,
more sustainable,
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現在，城市可以讓世界更具有永續發展性，
12:56
they can make the world more equitable,
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2256
它們讓世界更公平，
12:58
I also believe that
connectivity between cities
connectivity between cities
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我也相信城市間的連結
13:01
can make the world more peaceful.
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可以讓世界更和平。
13:04
If we look at regions of the world
with dense relations across borders,
with dense relations across borders,
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4016
如果我們專注世界各區
跨國間緊密關係的發展，
跨國間緊密關係的發展，
13:08
we see more trade, more investment
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我們會看到更多的貿易、更多的投資
13:11
and more stability.
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與更多的穩定性。
13:12
We all know the story
of Europe after World War II,
of Europe after World War II,
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我們都知道第二次世界大戰之後，
13:15
where industrial integration
kicked off a process
kicked off a process
241
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2576
歐洲工業蓬勃發展的故事，
13:17
that gave rise to today's
peaceful European Union.
peaceful European Union.
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2560
帶來了歐盟今日和平的發展。
13:21
And you can see that Russia, by the way,
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2616
還有，你可以看到俄羅斯，
13:23
is the least connected of major powers
in the international system.
in the international system.
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是最後一個與國際系統接軌的重要強國。
13:28
And that goes a long way
towards explaining the tensions today.
towards explaining the tensions today.
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要解釋今日全球的緊張局勢
會花很多的時間。
會花很多的時間。
13:32
Countries that have
less stake in the system
less stake in the system
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在系統中的國家，
13:34
also have less to lose in disturbing it.
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彼此的憎恨已經逐漸減少，
13:38
In North America, the lines
that matter most on the map
that matter most on the map
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在北美，地圖上最重要的一條線，
13:41
are not the US-Canada border
or the US-Mexico border,
or the US-Mexico border,
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3776
不是美國與加拿大的國界
或美國與墨西哥的國界，
或美國與墨西哥的國界，
13:45
but the dense network of roads
and railways and pipelines
and railways and pipelines
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而是集結在北美聯盟之間
綿密的公路、鐵路、油管網路
綿密的公路、鐵路、油管網路
13:48
and electricity grids
and even water canals
and even water canals
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2856
以及電網路甚至是水渠道。
13:51
that are forming an integrated
North American union.
North American union.
252
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3816
北美不需要更多的圍牆，
我們需要更多的連結。
我們需要更多的連結。
13:55
North America does not need more walls,
it needs more connections.
it needs more connections.
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14:00
(Applause)
254
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2640
（掌聲）
14:07
But the real promise of connectivity
is in the postcolonial world.
is in the postcolonial world.
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4336
但真正對連結性發展最有潛力
的地方是在後殖民世界的國家。
的地方是在後殖民世界的國家。
14:12
All of those regions where borders
have historically been the most arbitrary
have historically been the most arbitrary
256
840240
4336
這些區域的國家，他們的國界變化無常，
14:16
and where generations of leaders
257
844600
1936
世世代代的領導人，
14:18
have had hostile relations
with each other.
with each other.
258
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2616
彼此之間的仇恨都相當深。
14:21
But now a new group of leaders
has come into power
has come into power
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但現在新一代的統治者
14:23
and is burying the hatchet.
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1560
已經開始放下仇恨彼此合作。
14:25
Let's take Southeast Asia,
where high-speed rail networks
where high-speed rail networks
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我們拿東南亞為例，
從曼谷到新加坡的高速鐵路網
14:28
are planned to connect
Bangkok to Singapore
Bangkok to Singapore
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14:31
and trade corridors
from Vietnam to Myanmar.
from Vietnam to Myanmar.
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2896
以及越南到緬甸的貿易走廊。
14:34
Now this region of 600 million people
coordinates its agricultural resources
coordinates its agricultural resources
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5536
這個區域的六億人口，
齊心協調彼此的農業資源
齊心協調彼此的農業資源
14:39
and its industrial output.
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及彼此的產業輸出。
14:41
It is evolving
into what I call a Pax Asiana,
into what I call a Pax Asiana,
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它正進化到一種
我稱之為「亞洲和平共榮」的現象，
我稱之為「亞洲和平共榮」的現象，
14:46
a peace among Southeast Asian nations.
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一個在東南亞國家之間的和平現象。
14:50
A similar phenomenon
is underway in East Africa,
is underway in East Africa,
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在東非，相同的情況也正在發生，
14:53
where a half dozen countries
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將近有半打的國家，
14:54
are investing in railways
and multimodal corridors
and multimodal corridors
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正在投資鐵路與多功能經濟走廊
14:57
so that landlocked countries
can get their goods to market.
can get their goods to market.
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讓內陸國家也可以將
他們的產品推到市場上。
他們的產品推到市場上。
15:01
Now these countries
coordinate their utilities
coordinate their utilities
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這些國家彼此協調
15:03
and their investment policies.
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他們的設施及投資政策。
15:05
They, too, are evolving
into a Pax Africana.
into a Pax Africana.
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他們也進化到一種
「非洲式的和平共榮現象」。
「非洲式的和平共榮現象」。
15:11
One region we know could
especially use this kind of thinking
especially use this kind of thinking
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我們認識的一個區域
特別可以運用這種想法，
特別可以運用這種想法，
15:14
is the Middle East.
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就是中東區域。
15:16
As Arab states tragically collapse,
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當阿拉伯國家慘遭瓦解後，
15:18
what is left behind
but the ancient cities,
but the ancient cities,
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除了古老的城市，還留下了甚麼？
15:21
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?
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像是開羅、貝魯特和巴格達？
15:24
In fact, the nearly
400 million people of the Arab world
400 million people of the Arab world
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事實上在阿拉伯國度，有將近四億人口
15:29
are almost entirely urbanized.
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都已經都市化了。
15:31
As societies, as cities,
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社會、城市之間，
15:33
they are either water rich or water poor,
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不是水源豐富就是缺水，
15:35
energy rich or energy poor.
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不是能源豐富就是缺少能源。
15:38
And the only way
to correct these mismatches
to correct these mismatches
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而唯一可以導正這些分配不當的方法，
15:40
is not through more wars and more borders,
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並不是透過更多的戰爭和領土的侵略，
15:43
but through more connectivity
of pipelines and water canals.
of pipelines and water canals.
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而是透過對油管與水道的連結性。
15:48
Sadly, this is not yet
the map of the Middle East.
the map of the Middle East.
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可悲的是，這目前還不是中東的地圖。
15:52
But it should be,
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但，它必須是，
15:54
a connected Pax Arabia,
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一個「阿拉伯國度的和平共榮現象」，
15:58
internally integrated
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透過內部整合與產品連結
16:00
and productively connected
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.
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4296
與他們的鄰居：歐洲、亞洲、非洲產生連結。
16:04
Now, it may not seem like connectivity
is what we want right now
is what we want right now
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現在，對世界上最動盪的地區而言，
目前的連結性看起來
並不是我們所期待的樣子，
並不是我們所期待的樣子，
16:07
towards the world's most turbulent region.
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955800
2040
16:10
But we know from history
that more connectivity is the only way
that more connectivity is the only way
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但我們從歷史上學到，
更多的連結才是追求
長期穩定的唯一方法。
長期穩定的唯一方法。
16:14
to bring about stability in the long run.
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16:16
Because we know
that in region after region,
that in region after region,
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2696
因為我們知道，頻繁的戰爭如夢幻泡影，
16:19
connectivity is the new reality.
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連結性才是新的實境。
16:22
Cities and countries
are learning to aggregate
are learning to aggregate
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城市與國家正在學習匯集
16:25
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.
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更多的和平與繁榮。
16:29
But the real test is going to be Asia.
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但真正的考驗是在亞洲。
16:33
Can connectivity overcome
the patterns of rivalry
the patterns of rivalry
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2936
連結性是否可以克服長久以來
在遠東區域強大勢力
之間的競爭模式呢?
之間的競爭模式呢?
16:36
among the great powers of the Far East?
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2576
16:38
After all, this is where World War III
is supposed to break out.
is supposed to break out.
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並竟，這區是第三次世界大戰
最有可能爆發的地方。
最有可能爆發的地方。
16:43
Since the end of the Cold War,
a quarter century ago,
a quarter century ago,
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991920
3136
自從25年前，冷戰結束後，
16:47
at least six major wars
have been predicted for this region.
have been predicted for this region.
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3376
這一個區域，至少有6個主要的戰事
曾經被預測會爆發出來。
曾經被預測會爆發出來。
16:50
But none have broken out.
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1600
但沒有一個爆發。
16:53
Take China and Taiwan.
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1560
拿中國和台灣為例。
16:55
In the 1990s, this was everyone's
leading World War III scenario.
leading World War III scenario.
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1003560
4616
在1990年代，這裡是每個人
預測第三次世界大戰的開幕式。
預測第三次世界大戰的開幕式。
17:00
But since that time,
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但從那之後，
17:01
the trade and investment volumes
across the straits have become so intense
across the straits have become so intense
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4496
兩岸之間的貿易與投資往來相當密切，
17:06
that last November,
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這讓去年11月，
17:07
leaders from both sides
held a historic summit
held a historic summit
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2856
雙邊的領導，舉辦了一次歷史性的會面，
17:10
to discuss eventual
peaceful reunification.
peaceful reunification.
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1018360
2840
討論最終和平統一的議題。
17:13
And even the election
of a nationalist party in Taiwan
of a nationalist party in Taiwan
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2816
即使今年稍早，台灣的國民黨
17:16
that's pro-independence earlier this year
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2776
因為選舉而有支持獨立的傾向，
17:19
does not undermine
this fundamental dynamic.
this fundamental dynamic.
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2480
但這並不會破壞和平統一的基本路線。
17:23
China and Japan have
an even longer history of rivalry
an even longer history of rivalry
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2897
即使中國與日本對立的歷史更長，
17:26
and have been deploying
their air forces and navies
their air forces and navies
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2415
甚至在島的爭議上，展現彼此的國防實力。
17:28
to show their strength in island disputes.
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2160
17:31
But in recent years,
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1216
但近幾年，
17:32
Japan has been making
its largest foreign investments in China.
its largest foreign investments in China.
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4136
日本已經在中國做了最大的投資。
17:36
Japanese cars are selling
in record numbers there.
in record numbers there.
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1044920
2720
日本的汽車銷售甚至在中國創下紀錄。
17:40
And guess where
the largest number of foreigners
the largest number of foreigners
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猜猜看現在住在日本的外國人，
17:43
residing in Japan today comes from?
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2120
最多的是來自哪一個國家？
17:46
You guessed it: China.
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1054120
1800
你猜對了：中國。
17:49
China and India have fought a major war
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1057520
1896
中國與印度也有戰爭，
17:51
and have three outstanding
border disputes,
border disputes,
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1059440
2056
有三個顯著的國界爭議，
17:53
but today India is the second
largest shareholder
largest shareholder
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2456
但今日，印度是
亞投行的第二大股東。
17:56
in the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank.
Investment Bank.
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2416
17:58
They're building a trade corridor
stretching from Northeast India
stretching from Northeast India
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1066440
3256
他們建立了一條貿易走廊，
從印度的東北方
從印度的東北方
18:01
through Myanmar and Bangladesh
to Southern China.
to Southern China.
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1069720
3920
經過緬甸和孟加拉
一路延伸到中國的南邊。
一路延伸到中國的南邊。
18:06
Their trade volume has grown
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
from 20 billion dollars a decade ago
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1074320
3856
他們的貿易金額從10幾年前的200億美金
18:10
to 80 billion dollars today.
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1078200
1600
增長到今日的800億美金。
18:12
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan
have fought three wars
have fought three wars
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1080600
3016
擁有核武的印度和巴基斯坦
已經打了三場戰爭，
已經打了三場戰爭，
18:15
and continue to dispute Kashmir,
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1083640
2216
雙方對喀什米爾領土的爭議從不間斷，
18:17
but they're also negotiating
a most-favored-nation trade agreement
a most-favored-nation trade agreement
337
1085880
3536
但他們也協調出了一種雙贏的貿易協議，
18:21
and want to complete a pipeline
338
1089440
1736
雙方想要完成一條管線，
18:23
stretching from Iran
through Pakistan to India.
through Pakistan to India.
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3976
從伊朗經過巴基斯坦到印度。
18:27
And let's talk about Iran.
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1560
讓我們談談伊朗。
18:29
Wasn't it just two years ago
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
that war with Iran seemed inevitable?
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3200
兩年前伊朗的戰爭
不是不可避免的嗎？
不是不可避免的嗎？
18:33
Then why is every single major power
rushing to do business there today?
rushing to do business there today?
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1101760
4720
那麼，為什麼今日，每一個強權國家
都要跑到那邊做生意？
都要跑到那邊做生意？
18:40
Ladies and gentlemen,
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1108560
1256
各位先生女士，
18:41
I cannot guarantee
that World War III will not break out.
that World War III will not break out.
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4000
我不敢保證第三次世界大戰不會爆發。
18:46
But we can definitely see
why it hasn't happened yet.
why it hasn't happened yet.
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3000
但我們絕對可以了解為什還沒發生。
18:50
Even though Asia is home
to the world's fastest growing militaries,
to the world's fastest growing militaries,
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1118680
3696
即使大家都知道，亞洲是全世界
國防經費增長最快的區域
國防經費增長最快的區域
18:54
these same countries
are also investing billions of dollars
are also investing billions of dollars
347
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3576
但這些國家彼此也投入好幾十億美金在
18:58
in each other's infrastructure
and supply chains.
and supply chains.
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1126000
2936
彼此的基礎建設及供應鏈上。
19:00
They are more interested
in each other's functional geography
in each other's functional geography
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3816
他們對彼此的「地理位置功能」
19:04
than in their political geography.
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1132800
2456
比「政治地理版圖」更感興趣。
19:07
And that is why their leaders think twice,
step back from the brink,
step back from the brink,
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5056
這也是為什麼他們的
領導人要退一步仔細思考，
領導人要退一步仔細思考，
19:12
and decide to focus on economic ties
over territorial tensions.
over territorial tensions.
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4560
並決定把重心擺在經濟發展
而非緊張的領土關係上。
而非緊張的領土關係上。
19:18
So often it seems
like the world is falling apart,
like the world is falling apart,
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2600
雖然看起來世界好像正在分崩離析，
19:21
but building more connectivity
354
1149760
1936
但也建立了很多連結性，
19:23
is how we put Humpty Dumpty
back together again,
back together again,
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3120
讓大家比以前更知道
要如何重修舊好搞經濟。
19:27
much better than before.
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1760
19:29
And by wrapping the world
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1256
而藉由網路力量，
19:31
in such seamless physical
and digital connectivity,
and digital connectivity,
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3456
我們把世界連結在一起，
19:34
we evolve towards a world
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2176
這讓我們進化到一種
19:36
in which people can rise
above their geographic constraints.
above their geographic constraints.
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1164920
3520
突破地理限制的數位世界。
19:40
We are the cells and vessels
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1168920
3176
我們就像細胞和血管，
19:44
pulsing through these global
connectivity networks.
connectivity networks.
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1172120
3216
熱血沸騰地通過這些
全球的連結網路。
全球的連結網路。
19:47
Everyday, hundreds of millions
of people go online
of people go online
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3656
每天，有好幾億人在網路上，
19:51
and work with people they've never met.
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2616
與他們從未謀面的人一起工作。
19:53
More than one billion people
cross borders every year,
cross borders every year,
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3496
每年有超過10億人次
在世界各地旅行工作，
在世界各地旅行工作，
19:57
and that's expected to rise
to three billion in the coming decade.
to three billion in the coming decade.
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1185200
3920
在未來的10年，
這個數字即將突破30億。
這個數字即將突破30億。
20:02
We don't just build connectivity,
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2496
我們不只是建立了連結性，
20:04
we embody it.
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1320
我們更把它體現出來。
20:06
We are the global network civilization,
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3336
我們都是全球網路文明的一員，
20:10
and this is our map.
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1880
而這就是我們的地圖。
20:13
A map of the world in which
geography is no longer destiny.
geography is no longer destiny.
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4400
世界地圖不再由地緣性決定命運。
20:18
Instead, the future
has a new and more hopeful motto:
has a new and more hopeful motto:
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4040
而是一個更有希望的未來新口號：
20:23
connectivity is destiny.
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1960
連結才是我們的命運。
20:26
Thank you.
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20:27
(Applause)
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謝謝各位。
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Parag Khanna - Global strategistGeopolitical futurist Parag Khanna foresees a world in which megacities, supply chains and connective technologies redraw the map away from states and borders.
Why you should listen
Global theorist Parag Khanna travels the world with his eyes open -- seeing patterns emerging from the chaos of today’s complex world. In his new book, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization, he redraws the way humanity is organized according to lines of infrastructure and connectivity rather than our antiquated political borders.
At TED2016, he presented glowing maps of our hyper-connected global network civilization. Previously, at TEDGlobal 2009, Khanna spoke about "Mapping the future of countries," and at TEDGlobal 2012, he curated and guest-hosted the session "The Upside of Transparency."
Parag Khanna | Speaker | TED.com