TEDxStanford
Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to give up the driver's seat
Baba Shiv: 有時候，將決定權交給別人也不錯—談決策方式。
Filmed:
Readability: 3.7
901,458 views
這幾年，研究顯示一個和人類直覺相反的事實: 有時候太多的選擇讓我們變得較不快樂。這現象在醫療治療選擇方面可能甚至更常出現。Baba Shiv 呈現一個吸引人的研究結果，解釋了"選擇"為何會開啟"懷疑"的大門，並且建議將決策權轉讓給別人--特別是論及生死的決策--可能是對我們最好的方式。
Baba Shiv - Neuroeconomist
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing. Full bio
Baba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I want to start on a slightly somber note.
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我想從有點嚴肅的話題說起。
00:19
Two thousand and seven, five years ago,
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2007年，5年前，
00:23
my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer,
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我太太診斷出乳癌，
00:26
stage IIB.
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第二期B階段。
00:29
Now, looking back, the most harrowing
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現在回想起，那過程最難熬階段
00:31
part of that experience
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現在回想起，那過程最難熬階段
00:32
was not just the hospital visits --
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不是醫院就診過程—
00:34
these were very painful for my wife, understandably so.
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可理解的，我太太在這過程中吃了不少苦。
00:38
It was not even the initial shock of knowing
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(最難熬階段)甚至也不是最初的震驚階段，
00:39
that she had breast cancer, just 39 years old,
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得知她在39歲的年紀就得了乳癌，
00:41
absolutely no history of cancer in her family.
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她的家庭絕對沒有癌症病史。
00:46
The most horrifying and agonizing part
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治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段
00:49
of the whole experience was we were making
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治療癌症過程中最惶恐和折磨的階段
00:51
decisions after decisions after decisions
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是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。
00:53
that were being thrust upon us.
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是我們做完一決定後又被迫去做另一個決定。
00:55
Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy?
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該做乳房切除術嗎?該做乳房腫瘤切除術嗎?
00:58
Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment,
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在乳癌第二期B階段，該做更積極的治療方式嗎?
01:01
given that it was stage IIB?
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在乳癌第二期B階段，該做更積極的治療方式嗎?
01:03
With all the side effects?
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產生副作用怎麼辦?
01:04
Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment?
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或是該做沒那麼積極的治療方式?
01:07
And these were being pressed upon us
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而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。
01:09
by the doctors.
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而且我們被醫生的這些壓力壓得喘不過氣來。
01:12
Now, you could ask this question,
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現在你可能會問這個問題，
01:13
why were the doctors doing this?
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為什麼醫生要這樣做呢?
01:15
Now, a simplistic answer would be,
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現在有人可能會說，
01:16
the doctors are doing this because they want to protect themselves legally.
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醫生會這樣做是為了要合法的保護自己嘛。
01:21
I think that is too simplistic.
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我覺得這是太幼稚的想法。
01:23
These are well-meaning doctors,
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這些都是有良心的醫生，
01:24
some of them have gone on to become very good friends.
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其中有些醫生進而和病人成為要好的朋友。
01:26
They probably were simply following the wisdom
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他們可能只是遵循著那些隨年紀所增長的經驗
01:28
that has come down the ages, this adage that when you're making decisions,
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有句老話這樣說的，當你作決定時，
01:32
especially decisions of importance,
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特別是重要決定時，
01:34
it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control,
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最好是要掌控一切，
01:37
it's best to be in the driver's seat.
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如同坐在駕駛座般。
01:40
And we were certainly in the driver's seat,
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而且我們的確是如同坐在駕駛座，
01:42
making all these decisions, and let me tell you,
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做所有決定，讓我來告訴你，
01:44
if some of you had been there,
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如果你們有人曾經處於那情況下，
01:46
it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience.
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都會覺得這是最惶恐和折磨的過程。
01:50
Which got me thinking.
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這讓我開始思索一些事。
01:51
I said, is there any validity to
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我想，有任何方式來驗證
01:53
this whole adage that when you're making decisions,
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那句老話，當你作決定時，
01:56
it's best to take the driver's seat,
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最好要如同坐在駕駛座，
01:59
be in charge, be in control?
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一切置於掌控?
02:00
Or are there contexts where we're far better off
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或者坐在乘客座讓其他人駕駛的方式
02:03
taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive?
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會比較好一點?
02:07
For example, a trusted financial advisor,
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比如，變成一個信任的理財顧問般，
02:08
could be a trusted doctor, etc.
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可能是一個可以信任的醫生，等等。
02:11
And since I study human decision making,
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而且由於我研究人類決策學，
02:14
I said, I'm going to run some studies
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所以我想我要作一些研究
02:17
to find some answers.
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找出答案。
02:18
And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today.
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而我今天要和你們分享這研究的一些結果。
02:20
So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study.
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所以，想像你們都是這研究的實驗對象。
02:25
I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is
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我要告訴你們在這實驗中你們所要做的就是
02:28
you're going to drink a cup of tea.
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你們要喝杯茶。
02:30
If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now.
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如果你們好奇原因，我待會幾秒鐘後會告訴你們。
02:35
You are going to solve a series of puzzles,
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你要去解開一連串的謎題，
02:37
and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily.
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我馬上會給你看一些例子。
02:41
And the more puzzles you solve,
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你解開越多謎題，
02:43
the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes.
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你贏得獎金的機會就越大。
02:46
Now, why do you have to consume the tea?
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那麼，為什麼你們必須喝茶呢?
02:48
Why? Because it makes a lot of sense.
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為什麼呢? 因為這麼做相當有意義。
02:50
In order to solve these puzzles effectively,
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為了要正確的解開這些謎題，
02:53
if you think about it, your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously.
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你們想一下，你的大腦必需要同時處在兩個狀態。
02:56
Right? It needs to be alert,
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對吧 ? 必需要清醒，
02:59
for which caffeine is very good.
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那麼，要喝咖啡因的茶比較好。
03:02
Simultaneously, it needs to be calm.
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同時，必需要保持鎮定。
03:05
Not agitated, calm. For which chamomile is very good.
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不能焦慮，要鎮定。那麼，要喝含洋甘菊的茶比較好。
03:11
Now comes the between-subjects design,
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現在開始 “受試者間設計”，
03:14
the AB design, the AB testing.
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亦即基本AB設計，AB測試。
03:15
So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you
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所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。
03:17
to one of two groups.
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所以我將你們隨機分成兩組。
03:19
So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here,
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所以想像有條想像的線在這裡。
03:22
so everyone here will be group A,
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所以這邊的人是組別A，
03:25
everyone out here will be group B.
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而這邊的人為組別B。
03:27
Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is
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現在，對你們這群人，我要做的就是
03:30
I'm going to show you these two teas,
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我要給你們這兩種茶，
03:32
and I'm asking you, I'll go ahead and ask you,
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而且我要你們
03:34
to choose your tea. So you can choose which of the two tea you want.
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選擇一種茶。所以你們能選擇要喝哪種茶。
03:37
You can decide, what is your mental state:
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你們能決定，要讓頭腦處於什麼狀態:
03:39
Okay, I'm going to choose the caffeinated tea,
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好的，我要選擇含咖啡因的茶，
03:41
I'm going to choose the chamomile tea.
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我要選擇含洋甘菊的茶。
03:43
So you're going to be in charge,
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所以你將可掌握一切，
03:44
you're going to be in control, you're going to be in the driver's seat.
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控制一切，你將如同坐在駕駛座。
03:48
You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas,
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你們這群人，我會給你們看這兩種茶，
03:51
but you don't have a choice.
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但你們沒有選擇權。
03:53
I'm going to give you one of these two teas,
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我要給你們其中一種茶，
03:55
and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these
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記著，我是隨機挑一種茶給你。
03:58
two teas at random for you.
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記著，我是隨機挑一種茶給你。
04:00
And you know that.
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而且你知道這過程。
04:01
So if you think about it, this is an extreme case scenario,
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所以如果你思考一下，這是一種極端條件的情境，
04:04
because in the real world,
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因為在現實世界中，
04:05
whenever you are taking passenger's seat,
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每當你坐在乘客座時，
04:07
very often the driver is going to be someone you trust,
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駕駛人常常是你所信賴的人，
04:10
an expert, etc. So this is an extreme case scenario.
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經驗豐富的人。所以說這是一個極端狀況的情境。
04:14
Now, you're all going to consume the tea.
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現在，你們都要喝下這杯茶。
04:19
So imagine that you are taking the tea now,
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所以想像一下你們正在喝茶，
04:21
we'll wait for you to finish the tea.
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我們會等你喝完茶的。
04:23
We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects.
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我們會再等你五分鐘等茶發揮作用。
04:27
Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.
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接著你們有30分鐘的時間解15個謎題。
04:32
Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve.
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這是你們要解的謎題。
04:35
Anyone in the audience want to take a stab?
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有人要嘗試嗎?
04:38
(Audience: Pulpit.) Baba Shiv: Whoa!
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(聽眾: Pulpit) Baba Shiv: 哇!
04:40
Okay, that's cool.
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好酷喔。
04:41
Yeah, so what we do if we had you, who will get the answer,
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所以我們會做的就是如果你答對了，
04:44
as a participant, we would have calibrated the difficulty level
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基於你是參予者的緣故，我們會參考你的程度校正難度。
04:48
of the puzzles to your expertise.
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基於你是參予者的緣故，我們會參考你的程度校正難度。
04:50
Because we want these puzzles to be difficult.
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因為我們想要問題難一點。
04:52
These are tricky puzzles because your first instinct
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這些是暗藏陷阱的問題，因為你第一個直覺反應
04:55
is to say "tulip," and then you have to unstick yourself.
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會說是"tulip"，接著你會覺得不對。
04:59
Right? So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise.
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對吧? 所以這些問題已經參考你們程度調得更難了。
05:03
Because we want this to be difficult, and I'll tell you why momentarily.
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因為我們想要讓謎題變難。而我待會告訴你們原因。
05:07
Now, here's another example.
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現在，這裡有另一個例子。
05:09
Anyone? It's much more difficult.
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有人想嘗試嗎?這比較難。
05:11
(Audience: Embark.) BS: Yeah, wow. Okay.
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(聽眾:Embark) BS:耶，哇，好的。
05:14
So, yeah, so this is again difficult.
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所以，而這也是一個困難的問題。
05:16
You will say "kambar," then you will have to go, "maker,"
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你會說”kambar” 接著你必定會說，”maker”，
05:17
and all that, and then you can unstick yourself.
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說完那些後，你會覺得說的不對。
05:19
Okay, so you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles.
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好的，所以現在你有30分鐘來解決這15個謎題。
05:24
Now, the question we're asking here
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現在，我的問題是
05:26
is in terms of the outcome,
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就結果而言，
05:28
in terms of the number of puzzles solved,
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就解開的謎題數而言，
05:30
will you in the driver's seat
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坐在”駕駛座”上的你們
05:33
end up solving more puzzles,
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會解開更多謎題嗎，
05:35
because you are in control, you could decide which tea you will choose,
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因為你們可以將一切置於掌控，決定喝哪種茶，
05:38
or would you be better off,
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或是你們(乘客)會表現的比較好，
05:40
in terms of the number of puzzles solved?
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就解開的謎題數而言?
05:43
And systemically what we will show,
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我們將系統性的呈現，
05:45
across a series of studies,
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透過一系列的研究，
05:47
is that you, the passengers,
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就是你們，這些”乘客”，
05:49
even though the tea was picked for you at random,
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即使你們無法選擇要喝哪種茶，
05:53
will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers.
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但所解開的謎題數將比你們這些"駕駛者"更多。
05:57
We also observe another thing,
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我們也觀察到其它現像，
06:00
and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles,
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也就是，你們(駕駛座的人)所解開的謎題數不但比較少，
06:02
you're also putting less juice into the task.
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而且放在解謎題上的精力也較少。
06:05
Less effort, you're less persistent, and so on.
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沒那麼的努力，沒那麼有毅力，等等。
06:08
How do you know that?
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你怎麼知道呢?
06:09
Well we have two objective measures.
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恩，我們有兩個客觀的評估方式。
06:12
One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking
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首先，你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?
06:15
in attempting to solve these puzzles?
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首先，你花在解謎的時間平均有多少?
06:17
You will spend less time compared to you.
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和你們(這些乘客)相比，你們(這些駕駛)花較少的時間。
06:20
Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these,
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第二，你們有30分鐘解謎，
06:22
are you taking the entire 30 minutes, or are you giving up
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你們會用掉30分鐘嗎，或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?
06:24
before the 30 minutes elapse?
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你們會用掉30分鐘嗎，或著你們會在30分鐘之前放棄呢?
06:26
You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse compared to you.
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和你們(這些乘客)相比，你們(這些駕駛)容易提前放棄。
06:31
So, you're putting in less juice, and therefore the outcome:
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所以你們(這些駕駛)放在解謎上的精力較少，所以結果是:
06:34
fewer puzzles solved.
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所解開的謎題數較少。
06:37
Now, that brings us now to, why does this happen?
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現在，讓我們來看看，為什麼會這樣呢?
06:41
And under what situations, when would we see this pattern of results
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而且在什麼情況下，我們會看到這樣的結果，
06:46
where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes
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也就是，乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?
06:50
compared to the driver?
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也就是，乘客相較於駕駛會表現得比較好?
06:52
It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA.
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這都和當你們面臨(問題)所產生的INCA有關係。
06:57
It's an acronym that stands for
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這是一個縮寫，代表著
06:59
the nature of the feedback you're getting after you've made the decision.
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當你們作完決定後，你們所得到的結果蘊含的特性。
07:03
So, if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task,
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所以，如果你在這個猜謎實驗中檢視一下這些(特性)，
07:06
it could happen in investing in the stock market,
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(你會發現)股票投資市場也可能會出現這些特性，
07:08
very volatile out there, it could be the medical situation --
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很反覆無常，醫療情境也有這些(特性)--
07:10
the feedback here is immediate.
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(做完決定後)都立即得知結果。
07:13
You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not.
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不管你解多少謎題，你都會立即知道是否解開謎題。
07:17
Right? Second, it is negative.
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沒錯吧? 第二，所得到的結果是消極的。
07:19
Remember, the deck was stacked against you.
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回想一下，當初所設計的謎題難度，
07:22
In terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles.
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這些問題都是用來難倒你的。
07:24
And this can happen in the medical domain.
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而且這情況可能會發生在醫界。
07:26
For example, very early on in the treatment,
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例如，一開始所提的醫療過程，
07:28
things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive.
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狀況未好轉前一切都是消極的。
07:32
Right? It can happen in the stock market.
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沒錯吧? 這也可能會發生在股票市場。
07:34
Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback that's also immediate.
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變動的股市常發生沒獲利情況，而這也是立即性的。
07:37
And the feedback in all these cases is concrete.
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而所有這些例子中(做完決定後)產生的結果都是具體的。
07:40
It's not ambiguous; you know if you've solved the puzzles or not.
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這些結果並不模菱兩可; 你都可知道是否解開謎題。
07:43
Now, the added one, apart from this immediacy,
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現在，再提一點，除了這種立即的特性，
07:47
negative, this concreteness,
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消極的特性，這種具體的特性外，
07:51
now you have a sense of agency.
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你還會感受到一種背負感。
07:54
You were responsible for your decision.
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你要對所做的決定負責。
07:57
So what do you do?
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所以你會做什麼呢?
07:59
You focus on the foregone option.
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你會將精力放在先前的選擇。
08:01
You say, you know what? I should have chosen the other tea.
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那麼你知道嗎? 你會說什麼嗎?我當初應該選另一種茶的。
08:05
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:08
That casts your decision in doubt,
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那會讓你懷疑自己的決定，
08:11
reduces the confidence you have in the decision,
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降低做決定的信心，
08:14
reduces the confidence you have in the performance,
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降低在表現時的信心，
08:16
the performance in terms of solving the puzzles.
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就解謎上的表現。
08:18
And therefore less juice into the task,
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因此放較少的精力在問題上，
08:20
fewer puzzles solved, a less favorable outcome compared to you folks.
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相較之下，(駕駛)解開謎題數也就較少，導致不佳結果。
08:25
And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it.
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而且如果你思考一下，這現象也可能發生在醫界。
08:28
Right? A patient in the driver's seat, for example.
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沒錯吧? 例如，坐在駕駛座的病人。
08:30
Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself
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(付出的)精力變得較少，這意味著在維持體態上
08:33
less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process,
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較不那麼努力，較不積極在治療的過程，
08:37
which is what is often advocated. You probably wouldn't do that.
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這情況常被人提到。你們也許不會那麼做。
08:41
And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA,
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因此，有好幾次你們會面臨到INCA的狀況，
08:46
when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative,
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當結果立即產生，出現消極情況，
08:50
concrete, and you have the sense of agency,
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產生具體的結果，你感到背負感，
08:53
where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat
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從中得知，如果你坐在乘客座，處境會比較好，
08:55
and have someone else drive.
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讓其他人駕駛。
08:59
Now, I started off
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我從嚴肅的話題起頭。
09:00
on the somber note.
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我從嚴肅的話題起頭。
09:02
I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.
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我想要以愉快的內容作結。
09:04
It has now been five years, slightly more than five years,
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(太太的癌症治療)到目前已經五年多了，
09:07
and the good news, thank God,
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好消息是，感謝上帝，
09:09
is that the cancer is still in remission.
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癌症的症狀仍然在減輕中。
09:14
So it all ends well,
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所以，這一切到最後都蠻好的。
09:16
but one thing I didn't mention was
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但有件事我沒有提到，
09:19
that very early on into her treatment,
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一開始的就醫過程，
09:22
my wife and I decided that we will take the passenger's seat.
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我太太和我決定坐在乘客的座位上，
09:26
And that made so much of a difference
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而那產生截然不同的結果，
09:28
in terms of the peace of mind that came with that,
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我們帶著平靜的心情 "出發"，
09:31
we could focus on her recovery.
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將注意力放在身體的復原上。
09:33
We let the doctors make all the decisions,
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我們讓醫生做所有的決定，
09:36
take the driver's seat.
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讓醫生坐在駕駛座。
09:38
Thank you.
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謝謝。
09:40
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Baba Shiv - NeuroeconomistBaba Shiv studies how “liking” and “wanting” shape the choices we make, and what that means in the world of marketing.
Why you should listen
Does a bottle of wine’s price tag price affect the pleasure one experiences in buying and drinking it? Does getting immediate feedback on a choice lead a person to doubt their decision? Does being denied something make people pursue it more hotly while simultaneously liking it less? Over his academic career, Baba Shiv has researched these questions in neuroeconomics, winning awards like the William O’Dell prize for an article that made a significant, long-term contribution to marketing theory and practice. Two of Professor Shiv's publications have received the Citation of Excellence from Emerald Management Reviews, and his research has been been featured on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and on NPR's "Radiolab," as well as in the Financial Times, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal.
A professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Busines , Shiv is the director of the Strategic Marketing Management Executive Program and teaches several popular MBA courses including “The Frinky Science of the Mind” and “Entrepreneurial Ventures in Luxury Markets.” He served as the editor of the Journal of Consumer Research and is also on the editorial boards of the Journal of Consumer Psychology, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Marketing and the Journal of Marketing Research.
Baba Shiv | Speaker | TED.com