TEDGlobal 2013
Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems
Eric X. Li: Priča o dva politička sustava
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Standardna je zapadnjačka pretpostavka: kako društvo napreduje, konačno postaje kapitalistička višestranačka demokracija. Točno? Eric X. Li, kineski ulagač i politolog, tvrdi da nije.U ovom provokativnom govoru, on ruši granice i moli publiku da razmotri kako postoji više od jednog načina kako voditi uspješnu modernu državu.
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Good morning.
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Dobro jutro.
00:14
My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.
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Moje je ime Eric Li, i rođen sam ovdje.
00:19
But no, I wasn't born there.
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Ali ne, nisam rođen ondje.
00:21
This was where I was born:
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Ovo je gdje sam rođen:
00:24
Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.
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Šangaj, na vrhuncu Kulturne revolucije.
00:28
My grandmother tells me that she heard
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Baka mi priča kako je čula
00:29
the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.
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zvuke pucnjave iz oružja
zajedno sa mojim prvim plačem.
zajedno sa mojim prvim plačem.
00:33
When I was growing up, I was told a story
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Tijekom odrastanja, ispričana mi je priča
00:36
that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.
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koja je objasnila sve što sam
ikad trebao znati o čovječanstvu.
ikad trebao znati o čovječanstvu.
00:40
It went like this.
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išla je ovako:
00:41
All human societies develop in linear progression,
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Sva se ljudska društva razvijaju u linearnom slijedu,
00:45
beginning with primitive society, then slave society,
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počevši od primitivnog društva,
preko robovlasničkog društva,
preko robovlasničkog društva,
00:48
feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
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feudalizma, kapitalizma, socijalizma,
00:51
and finally, guess where we end up?
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te konačno, pogodite gdje završavamo?
00:54
Communism!
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Komunizam!
00:57
Sooner or later, all of humanity,
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Prije ili kasnije, cijelo će čovječanstvo,
01:01
regardless of culture, language, nationality,
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bez obzira na kulturu, jezik, nacionalnost,
01:03
will arrive at this final stage
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doći do ove završne faze
01:06
of political and social development.
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političkog i društvenog razvoja.
01:08
The entire world's peoples will be unified
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Svi će ljudi na svijetu biti ujedinjeni
01:10
in this paradise on Earth
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u ovom raju na zemlji
01:13
and live happily ever after.
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i zauvijek će živjeti sretno.
01:15
But before we get there, we're engaged
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Ali prije nego stignemo tamo, uključeni smo
01:18
in a struggle between good and evil,
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u borbu dobra i zla,
01:20
the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,
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dobra socijalizma protiv zla kapitalizma,
01:23
and the good shall triumph.
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a dobro će trijumfirati.
01:25
That, of course, was the meta-narrative
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to je, naravno, meta-pripovijest
01:28
distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.
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izvedena iz teorija Karla Marxa.
01:31
And the Chinese bought it.
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I Kinezi su je prihvatili.
01:33
We were taught that grand story day in and day out.
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Učili su nas tu veličanstvenu priču
svaki bogovetni dan,
svaki bogovetni dan,
01:36
It became part of us, and we believed in it.
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Postala je dio nas, i mi smo u nju vjerovali.
01:39
The story was a bestseller.
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Priča je bila hit.
01:41
About one third of the entire world's population
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Oko trećina sve svjetske populacije
01:43
lived under that meta-narrative.
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je živjelo pod tom meta-pripovjesti.
01:46
Then, the world changed overnight.
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Tada se svijet promijenio preko noći.
01:49
As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,
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Za mene, bez iluzija spram
posrnule religije moje mladosti,
posrnule religije moje mladosti,
01:52
I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.
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pošao sam u Ameriku i postao hipi sa Berkeleya.
01:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:59
Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.
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Sada, kako sam postajao odrasli čovjek,
nešto se drugo desilo.
nešto se drugo desilo.
02:02
As if one big story wasn't enough,
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Kao da jedna velika priča nije dovoljna,
02:04
I was told another one.
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ispričana mi je još jedna.
02:07
This one was just as grand.
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Ta je bila jednako veličanstvena.
02:10
It also claims that all human societies
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Također tvrdi da se sva ljudska društva
02:12
develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.
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razvijaju u linearnom slijedu
prema jedinstvenom kraju.
prema jedinstvenom kraju.
02:16
This one went as follows:
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Ova je išla ovako:
02:19
All societies, regardless of culture,
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Sva društva, bez obzira na kulturu,
02:21
be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,
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bila ona kršćanska, muslimanska, konfucijanska,
02:24
must progress from traditional societies
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se moraju razviti od tradicionalnih društava
02:26
in which groups are the basic units
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u kojima su grupe temeljne jedinice
02:29
to modern societies in which atomized individuals
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u moderna društva u kojima su atomizirani pojedinci
02:33
are the sovereign units,
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glavne jedinice,
02:34
and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,
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a ti su pojedinci, po definiciji, razumni,
02:38
and they all want one thing:
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i svi žele jednu stvar:
02:40
the vote.
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glas.
02:42
Because they are all rational, once given the vote,
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Stoga što su racionalni, jednom kad im je dan glas,
02:45
they produce good government
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stvoriti će dobru vlast
02:46
and live happily ever after.
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i zauvijek živjeti sretno.
02:49
Paradise on Earth, again.
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Raj na Zemlji, ponovo.
02:52
Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be
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Prije ili kasnije, izborna će demokracija biti
02:55
the only political system for all countries and all peoples,
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jedini politički sustav za sve zemlje i sve ljude,
02:59
with a free market to make them all rich.
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sa slobodnim tržištem da ih sve učini bogatim.
03:01
But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle
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Ali prije nego stignemo tamo, uključeni smo u borbu
03:05
between good and evil.
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dobra i zla
03:06
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:08
The good belongs to those who are democracies
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Dobro pripada onima koji su demokracije
03:10
and are charged with a mission of spreading it
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i koji su dužni vršiti misiju njenog širenja
03:12
around the globe, sometimes by force,
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oko svijeta, ponekad i silom,
03:16
against the evil of those who do not hold elections.
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protiv zla onih koji ne održavaju izbore.
03:19
(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...
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(Video) George H.W. Bush: Novi svjetski poredak ...
03:21
(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...
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(Video) George W. Bush:
... okončati tiraniju u našem svijetu ...
... okončati tiraniju u našem svijetu ...
03:23
(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all
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(Video) Barack Obama:
... jedinstveno mjerilo za sve
... jedinstveno mjerilo za sve
03:25
who would hold power.
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koji bi posjedovali moć.
03:28
Eric X. Li: Now --
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Eric X. Li: Sad--
03:30
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Aplauz)
03:38
This story also became a bestseller.
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I ova je priča postala hit.
03:42
According to Freedom House,
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Prema Freedom House-u,
03:44
the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970
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broj je demokracija otišao sa 45 u 1970
03:47
to 115 in 2010.
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na 115 u 2010.
03:49
In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly
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U zadnjih 20 godina, Zapadne su elite neumorno
03:52
trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:
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putovale oko svijeta prodajući ovu brošuru:
03:56
Multiple parties fight for political power
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Višestranačka borba za političku moć
03:58
and everyone voting on them
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i opće sudjelovanje u glasanju
04:00
is the only path to salvation
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je jedini put do spasenja
04:02
to the long-suffering developing world.
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dugo napaćenom svijetu zemalja u razvoju.
04:05
Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.
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Oni koji kupe brošuru su predodređeni za uspjeh.
04:08
Those who do not are doomed to fail.
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Oni koji ne, osuđeni su na propast.
04:11
But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.
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Ali ovaj put, Kinezi je nisu prihvatili.
04:14
Fool me once ...
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Prevari me jednom ...
04:17
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:21
The rest is history.
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Ostatak je povijest.
04:23
In just 30 years, China went from
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U samo 30 godina, Kina je prešla put od
04:25
one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world
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jedne od najsiromašnijih
poljoprivrednih zemalja na svijetu
poljoprivrednih zemalja na svijetu
04:27
to its second-largest economy.
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do drugog najvećeg gospodarstva.
04:30
Six hundred fifty million people
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Šest stotina i pedeset milijuna ljudi
04:32
were lifted out of poverty.
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izdignuto je iz siromaštva
04:33
Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation
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osamdeset posto svjetskog uklanjanja siromaštva
04:36
during that period happened in China.
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tijekom tog razdoblja dogodilo se u Kini.
04:38
In other words, all the new and old democracies
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Drugim riječima, sve nove i stare demokracije
04:41
put together amounted to a mere fraction
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stavljene zajedno su iznosile tek dio
04:44
of what a single, one-party state did without voting.
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onog što je jedna
jednostranačka država učinila bez glasanja.
jednostranačka država učinila bez glasanja.
04:49
See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.
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Vidite, odrastao sam na ovim stvarima:
bonovima za hranu.
bonovima za hranu.
04:53
Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
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Mjerica mesa je bila nekoliko stotina grama
04:55
per person per month at one point.
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po osobi po mjesecu u jedno doba.
04:57
Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.
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Ne treba ni reći, pojeo sam sve bakine mjerice.
05:01
So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?
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Pa sam se pitao, što je krivo s tom slikom?
05:05
Here I am in my hometown,
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Eto me u mom rodnom gradu,
05:07
my business growing leaps and bounds.
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moj posao raste u neograničenim skokovima.
05:09
Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.
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Poduzetnici osnivaju tvrtke svaki dan.
05:11
Middle class is expanding in speed and scale
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Srednji sloj se širi brzinom i razmjerom
05:14
unprecedented in human history.
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neviđenim u ljudskoj povijesti.
05:16
Yet, according to the grand story,
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Ipak, prema veličanstvenoj priči,
05:19
none of this should be happening.
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ništa se od toga ne bi smjelo događati.
05:22
So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.
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Pa sam krenuo učiniti jedinu stvar
koju sam mogao. Proučio sam to.
koju sam mogao. Proučio sam to.
05:25
Yes, China is a one-party state
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Da, Kina je jednostranačka država
05:27
run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,
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koju vodi Kineska komunistička stranka, Partija,
05:31
and they don't hold elections.
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i ne održavaju izbore.
05:33
Three assumptions are made
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Tri su pretpostavke postavljene
05:35
by the dominant political theories of our time.
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dominantnih političkih teorija našeg doba.
05:38
Such a system is operationally rigid,
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Takav je sustav krut za rukovanje,
05:41
politically closed, and morally illegitimate.
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politički zatvoren, i moralno neopravdan.
05:45
Well, the assumptions are wrong.
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Pa, te su pretpostavke krive.
05:48
The opposites are true.
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Točno je obrnuto.
05:50
Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy
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Prilagodljivost, vladavina zaslužnih te opravdanost
05:53
are the three defining characteristics
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su tri definitivne karakteristike
05:55
of China's one-party system.
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Kineskog jednostranačkog sustava.
05:58
Now, most political scientists will tell us
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Sad, politolozi će nam uglavnom reći
05:59
that a one-party system is inherently incapable
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da je jednostranački sustav inherentno nesposoban
06:03
of self-correction.
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ispraviti sam sebe.
06:05
It won't last long because it cannot adapt.
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Neće trajati dugo stoga što se ne može prilagoditi.
06:07
Now here are the facts.
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No tu su činjenice.
06:09
In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,
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U 64 godine vođenja najveće države na svijetu,
06:12
the range of the Party's policies has been wider
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širina Partijskih usmjerenja je bila šira
06:15
than any other country in recent memory,
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od bilo koje druge države u novijem pamćenju,
06:18
from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,
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od korjenite kolektivizacije zemlje
preko Velikog skoka naprijed,
preko Velikog skoka naprijed,
06:22
then privatization of farmland,
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potom privatizacije obrađene zemlje,
06:25
then the Cultural Revolution,
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potom Kulturne revolucije,
06:27
then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,
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potom Deng Xiaopingove reforme tržišta,
06:30
then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step
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potom je Jiang Zemin nastavio
i napravio ogroman politički korak
i napravio ogroman politički korak
06:33
of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,
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otvaranja Partijskog članstva
privatnim poslovnim ljudima,
privatnim poslovnim ljudima,
06:36
something unimaginable during Mao's rule.
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nešto nezamislivo tijekom Maove vladavine.
06:39
So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.
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Tako da partija ispravlja samu sebe
na poprilčno dramatične načine.
na poprilčno dramatične načine.
06:43
Institutionally, new rules get enacted
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Institucionalno, nova pravila bivaju donesena
06:46
to correct previous dysfunctions.
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kako bi se ispravile prijašnje disfunkcionalnosti.
06:48
For example, term limits.
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Na primjer, ograničenje roka službe.
06:50
Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,
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Politički vođe su običavali
zadržavati položaje doživotno,
zadržavati položaje doživotno,
06:53
and they used that to accumulate power
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te su to koristili kako bi prikupili moć
06:54
and perpetuate their rules.
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i ovjekovječili svoju vladavinu.
06:56
Mao was the father of modern China,
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Mao je otac moderne Kine,
06:59
yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.
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pa ipak je njegova duga vladavina
dovela do katastrofalnih pogrešaka.
dovela do katastrofalnih pogrešaka.
07:01
So the Party instituted term limits
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Pa je Partija uspostavila ograničenje roka službe
07:04
with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.
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sa obaveznim umirovljenjem
u dobi od 68 do 70 godina.
u dobi od 68 do 70 godina.
07:07
One thing we often hear is,
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Stvar koju često čujemo je:
07:10
"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"
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"političke reforme su daleko
zaostale za gospodarskim reformama,"
zaostale za gospodarskim reformama,"
07:13
and "China is in dire need of political reform."
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te "Kini je očajnički potrebna politička reforma."
07:16
But this claim is a rhetorical trap
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Ali ova je tvrdnja retorička zamka
07:19
hidden behind a political bias.
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sakrivena iza političke pristranosti.
07:22
See, some have decided a priori
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Vidite, netko unaprijed odluči
07:24
what kinds of changes they want to see,
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kakve vrste promjena želi vidjeti,
07:26
and only such changes can be called political reform.
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i onda se samo takve promjene
mogu zvati političkom reformom.
mogu zvati političkom reformom.
07:30
The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.
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Istina je, političke reforme nikad nisu prestale.
07:33
Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,
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U usporedbi sa slikom od prije
30 godina, 20 godina,čak i 10 godina
30 godina, 20 godina,čak i 10 godina
07:36
every aspect of Chinese society,
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svaki vid kineskoga društva.
07:38
how the country is governed,
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kako se zemljom upravlja,
07:39
from the most local level to the highest center,
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od najlokalnije razine do najvišeg centra,
07:41
are unrecognizable today.
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danas je neprepoznatljiv.
07:44
Now such changes are simply not possible
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Sad, takve promjene jednostavno nisu moguće
07:47
without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.
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bez političkih reformi najtemeljnije vrste.
07:51
Now I would venture to suggest the Party
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Usudio bih se sugerirati da je Partija
07:53
is the world's leading expert in political reform.
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vodeći svjetski stručnjak glede političke reforme.
07:57
The second assumption is that in a one-party state,
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Druga je pretpostavka da u jednostranačkoj državi
08:00
power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,
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moć biva koncentrirana u rukama nekolicine,
08:03
and bad governance and corruption follow.
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iz čega slijede loše upravljanje i korupcija.
08:05
Indeed, corruption is a big problem,
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Zaista, korupcija je velik problem,
08:08
but let's first look at the larger context.
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ali pogledajmo prvo širi kontekst.
08:10
Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.
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Sad, ovo bi vam moglo biti suprotno intuiciji.
08:12
The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic
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Ispada da je Partija jedna od najmeritokratskijih
08:15
political institutions in the world today.
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političkih ustanova u današnjem svijetu.
08:18
China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.
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Kinesko najviše vladajuće tijelo,
Politbiro, ima 25 članova.
Politbiro, ima 25 članova.
08:22
In the most recent one, only five of them
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U posljednjem, samo ih je pet
08:24
came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.
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koji su došli iz povlaštene sredine,
takozvani prinčevići.
takozvani prinčevići.
08:27
The other 20, including the president and the premier,
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Ostalih 20, uključujući predsjednika i premijera,
08:30
came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.
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su došli iz posve običnih sredina.
08:33
In the larger central committee of 300 or more,
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U većem centralnom komitetu od 300 ili više,
08:35
the percentage of those who were born
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postotak onih koji su rođeni
08:37
into power and wealth was even smaller.
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u moć i bogatstvo je bio još i manji.
08:39
The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders
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Velika većina viših kineskih rukovoditelja
08:42
worked and competed their way to the top.
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se samo probilo do vrha kroz rad i natjecanje.
08:45
Compare that with the ruling elites
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Usporedite to s vladajućim elitama.
08:47
in both developed and developing countries,
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i u razvijenim zemljama i zemljama u razvoju,
08:49
I think you'll find the Party being near the top
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mislim da ćete otkriti da je Partija blizu vrha
08:52
in upward mobility.
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u vertikalnoj mobilnosti.
08:54
The question then is, how could that be possible
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Onda je pitanje, kako to može biti moguće
08:57
in a system run by one party?
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u sustavu koji vodi jedna stranka?
09:00
Now we come to a powerful political institution,
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Tu dolazimo do moćne političke ustanove,
09:03
little-known to Westerners:
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slabo poznate zapadnjacima:
09:04
the Party's Organization Department.
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Partijino ministarstvo organizacije.
09:07
The department functions like a giant
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Ministarstvo djeluje kao divovski
09:09
human resource engine that would be the envy
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motor za upravljanje
ljudskim resursima kojem bi zavidjele
ljudskim resursima kojem bi zavidjele
09:12
of even some of the most successful corporations.
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čak i neke od najuspješnijih korporacija.
09:15
It operates a rotating pyramid
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Upravlja rotirajućom piramidom
09:17
made up of three components:
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sastavljenom od tri komponente:
09:19
civil service, state-owned enterprises,
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državnih službi, poduzeća u državnom vlasništvu
09:21
and social organizations like a university
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te društvenih organizacija poput sveučilišta
09:23
or a community program.
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ili javnih programa.
09:26
They form separate yet integrated career paths
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Ona čine odvojene no integrirane karijerne puteve
09:28
for Chinese officials.
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kineskih dužnosnika.
09:30
They recruit college grads into entry-level positions
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Novače diplomirane studente
u pozicijena početnim razinama
u pozicijena početnim razinama
09:33
in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,
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u sve tri staze, gdje počinju od dna,
09:36
called "keyuan" [clerk].
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kao "keyuan" [službenik].
09:37
Then they could get promoted
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Potom mogu biti unaprijeđeni
09:39
through four increasingly elite ranks:
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kroz četiri sve elitnija stupnja:
09:44
fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].
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fuke [zamjenik voditelja odsjeka],
ke [voditelj odsjeka],
fuchu [zamjenik voditelja odjela],
te chu [voditelj odjela]
ke [voditelj odsjeka],
fuchu [zamjenik voditelja odjela],
te chu [voditelj odjela]
09:47
Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?
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Ovo nisu potezi iz "Karate Kida", ok?
09:49
It's serious business.
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To je ozbiljan posao.
09:53
The range of positions is wide,
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Ponuda položaja je široka,
09:55
from running health care in a village
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od vođenja zdravstvene zaštite na selu
09:57
to foreign investment in a city district
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preko stranih ulaganja u gradskom okrugu
09:59
to manager in a company.
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do vođenja tvrtke.
10:01
Once a year, the department reviews their performance.
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Jednom godišnje,
ministarstvo radi osvrt na njihovu izvedbu.
ministarstvo radi osvrt na njihovu izvedbu.
10:04
They interview their superiors, their peers,
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Razgovaraju sa nadređenima, kolegama,
10:06
their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.
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podređenima. Pregledavaju osobno ponašanje.
10:09
They conduct public opinion surveys.
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Vrše ispitivanja javnog mnijenja.
10:11
Then they promote the winners.
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Potom promoviraju pobjednike.
10:13
Throughout their careers, these cadres
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Tijekom svojih karijera, ti kadrovi
10:14
can move through and out of all three tracks.
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se mogu micati kroz i van iz sve tri staze.
10:18
Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels
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S vremenom,
oni zbilja dobri se miču ponad četiri temeljne razine
oni zbilja dobri se miču ponad četiri temeljne razine
10:20
to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.
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do razine
fuju [zamjenik šefa uprave] i ju [šefa uprave].
fuju [zamjenik šefa uprave] i ju [šefa uprave].
10:23
There, they enter high officialdom.
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Ovdje, ulaze u visoko službeništvo.
10:26
By that point, a typical assignment will be
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Do ove točke, tipični zadatak bi bio
10:28
to manage a district with a population in the millions
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upravljati okrugom s populacijom u milijunima
10:31
or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
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ili kompanijom sa stotinama milijuna dolara prihoda.
10:35
Just to show you how competitive the system is,
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Samo da vam prikažem kolko je sustav natjecateljski,
10:38
in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,
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u 2012, bilo je 900,000 razine fuke i ke,
10:42
600,000 fuchu and chu levels,
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600,000 razine fuchu i chu,
10:45
and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.
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a samo 40,000 razine fuju i ju.
10:48
After the ju levels,
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Nakon razine ju,
10:50
the best few move further up several more ranks,
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nekoliko najboljih se miče
još nekoliko stupnjeva iznad,
još nekoliko stupnjeva iznad,
10:53
and eventually make it to the Central Committee.
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te konačno dospijeva do Centralnog komiteta.
10:56
The process takes two to three decades.
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Proces traje dva do tri desetljeća.
10:59
Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.
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Igra li pokroviteljstvo ulogu? Da, naravno.
11:02
But merit remains the fundamental driver.
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Ali zasluga ostaje temeljni pokretač.
11:05
In essence, the Organization Department runs
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U biti, ministarstvo organizacije vrši
11:08
a modernized version of China's centuries-old
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moderniziranu verziju kineskoga stoljećima starog
11:10
mentoring system.
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sustava mentorstva.
11:12
China's new president, Xi Jinping,
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Novi kineski predsjednik, Xi Jinping,
11:15
is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,
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je sin bivšeg vođe, što je vrlo neobično,
11:17
first of his kind to make the top job.
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prvi od svoje vrste koji je došao do samog vrha.
11:19
Even for him, the career took 30 years.
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Čak i za njega, karijera je trajala 30 godina.
11:22
He started as a village manager,
248
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1868
Počeo je kao seoski upravitelj,
11:24
and by the time he entered the Politburo,
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a do vremena kad je ušao u Politbiro,
11:26
he had managed areas with a total population
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upravljao je sa područjima ukupne populacije
11:28
of 150 million people
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150 milijuna ljudi
11:30
and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
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i kombiniranim GDP-om od 1.5 trilijuna dolara.
11:34
Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?
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Sad, nemojte me shvatiti krivo, ok?
11:37
This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.
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Ovo nije spuštanje nikoga.
Samo je činjenična tvrdnja.
Samo je činjenična tvrdnja.
11:40
George W. Bush, remember him?
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George W. Bush, sjećate ga se?
11:44
This is not a put-down.
256
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Ovo nije spuštanje.
11:46
(Laughter)
257
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(Smijeh)
11:47
Before becoming governor of Texas,
258
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Prije nego što je postao guverner Teksasa,
11:50
or Barack Obama before running for president,
259
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2619
ili Barack Obama
prije nego što se kandidirao za predsjednika
prije nego što se kandidirao za predsjednika
11:53
could not make even a small county manager
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ne bi mogli biti upravitelji čak ni malog okruga
11:55
in China's system.
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1928
u kineskom sustavu.
11:57
Winston Churchill once said that democracy
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2022
Winston Churchill je jednom rekao da je demokracija
11:59
is a terrible system except for all the rest.
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najgori sustav osim svih ostalih.
12:02
Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.
264
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Pa, očito da nije čuo za ministarstvo organizacije.
12:06
Now, Westerners always assume that
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Sad, zapadnjaci uvijek pretpostavljaju da su
12:08
multi-party election with universal suffrage
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višestranački izbori sa općim sudjelovanjem
12:11
is the only source of political legitimacy.
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jedini izvor političke opravdanosti.
12:14
I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.
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Jednom sam bio upitan:
"Partija nije izglasana na izborima.
"Partija nije izglasana na izborima.
12:18
Where is the source of legitimacy?"
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Čime je njena vlast opravdana?"
12:20
I said, "How about competency?"
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3562
Rekoh: "što je sa sposobnošću?"
12:24
We all know the facts.
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Svi znamo činjenice.
12:25
In 1949, when the Party took power,
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1941
1949, kad se Partija domogla moći,
12:27
China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,
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Kina je bila okaljana građanskim ratovima,
rastrgana stranim napadima,
rastrgana stranim napadima,
12:30
average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.
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prosječan životni vijek u to doba, 41 godina.
12:35
Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,
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2910
Danas, ona je drugo najveće svjetsko gospodarstvo,
12:38
an industrial powerhouse, and its people live
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industrijski moćnik, a njeni ljudi žive
12:40
in increasing prosperity.
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2087
u rastućem blagostanju.
12:42
Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,
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Pew Research anketira stavove kineske javnosti,
12:45
and here are the numbers in recent years.
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i eto brojki od posljednjih godina.
12:47
Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.
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4500
Zadovoljstvo upravljanjem državom: 85 posto.
12:52
Those who think they're better off than five years ago:
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2311
Oni koji misle da im je bolje nego prije pet godina:
12:54
70 percent.
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2264
70 posto.
12:56
Those who expect the future to be better:
283
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2384
Oni koji očekuju da će budućnost biti bolja:
12:59
a whopping 82 percent.
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2664
ogromnih 82 posto.
13:02
Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,
285
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3529
Financial Times anketira stavove globalne mladeži,
13:05
and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.
286
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3415
i te su brojke, posve nove, stigle baš prošli tjedan.
13:08
Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y
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2782
Devedeset tri posto kineske generacije Y
13:11
are optimistic about their country's future.
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2586
je optimistično glede budućnosti njihove države.
13:14
Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.
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5888
Sad, ako to nije opravdanje, nisam siguran što jest.
13:20
In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world
290
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3169
Nasuprot,
najveći dio izbornih demokracija oko svijeta
najveći dio izbornih demokracija oko svijeta
13:23
are suffering from dismal performance.
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pate od sumorne izvedbe.
13:25
I don't need to elaborate for this audience
292
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2315
Ne moram razložiti ovoj publici
13:27
how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.
293
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4337
kako je to disfunkcionalno,
od Washingtona do europskih glavnih gradova.
od Washingtona do europskih glavnih gradova.
13:32
With a few exceptions, the vast number
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Uz par iznimaka, najveći broj
13:35
of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes
295
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2907
zemalja u razvoju koje su usvojile izborni režim
13:37
are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.
296
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3811
još uvijek pati od siromaštva i građanskih nemira.
13:41
Governments get elected, and then they fall
297
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1940
Vlade bivaju izabrane, potom padnu
13:43
below 50 percent approval in a few months
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2735
ispod 50 posto podrške nakon par mjeseci
13:46
and stay there and get worse until the next election.
299
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koja ostaje takva
ili još i manja sve do slijedećih izbora.
ili još i manja sve do slijedećih izbora.
13:50
Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle
300
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2423
Demokracija postaje vječni krug
13:52
of elect and regret.
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2378
biranja i kajanja.
13:54
At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,
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3529
Ovim tempom, bojim se da je demokracija,
13:58
not China's one-party system, that is in danger
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2620
a ne kineski jednostranački sustav,
ona koja je u opasnosti
ona koja je u opasnosti
14:00
of losing legitimacy.
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2259
od gubljenja opravdanosti.
14:03
Now, I don't want to create the misimpression
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2850
Sad, ne želim stvoriti krivu sliku
14:06
that China's hunky-dory, on the way
306
834059
2008
da je Kina laganini na putu ka
14:08
to some kind of superpowerdom.
307
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1793
nekakvoj vrsti supersilništva.
14:09
The country faces enormous challenges.
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2959
Država je suočena s ogromnim izazovima.
14:12
The social and economic problems that come
309
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1903
Društveni i ekonomski problemi koji dolaze
14:14
with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.
310
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4006
sa tako brzom i silovitom promjenom
poput ove su zapanjujući.
poput ove su zapanjujući.
14:18
Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.
311
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3547
Zagađenje je jedan od njih.
Osiguravanje hrane. Populacijska pitanja.
Osiguravanje hrane. Populacijska pitanja.
14:22
On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.
312
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Sa strane politike, najgori je problem korupcija.
14:26
Corruption is widespread and undermines the system
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2832
Korupcija je proširena i potkopava sustav
14:29
and its moral legitimacy.
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1802
i njegovu moralnu opravdanost.
14:30
But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.
315
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2847
Ali najveći dio analitičara
toj zarazi postavlja krivu dijagnozu.
toj zarazi postavlja krivu dijagnozu.
14:33
They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,
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2909
Kažu da je korupcija
rezultat jednostranačkog sustava,
rezultat jednostranačkog sustava,
14:36
and therefore, in order to cure it,
317
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1501
te da bi, kako bi ga izliječili,
14:38
you have to do away with the entire system.
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2057
morali maknuti cijeli sustav.
14:40
But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.
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3082
Ali pažljiviji pregled govori nam drugačije.
14:43
Transparency International ranks China
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2920
Transparency International rangira Kinu
14:46
between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,
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3766
između 70. i 80. zadnjih godina među 170 zemalja,
14:49
and it's been moving up.
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i kreće se prema gore.
14:52
India, the largest democracy in the world,
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2063
Indija, najveća demokracija na svijetu,
14:54
94 and dropping.
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2147
94. i u padu.
14:56
For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,
325
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2462
Od stotinjak država rangiranih ispod Kine,
14:58
more than half of them are electoral democracies.
326
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3009
više od pola su izborne demokracije.
15:01
So if election is the panacea for corruption,
327
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3295
Pa ako su izbori lijek za korupciju,
15:05
how come these countries can't fix it?
328
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kako to da je te države ne mogu spriječiti?
15:08
Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.
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3594
Sad, ja sam kapitalist špekulant. Kladim se.
15:11
It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without
330
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2332
Ne bi bilo pošteno da završim ovaj govor bez
15:14
putting myself on the line and making some predictions.
331
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da se ne izvrgnem i ne napravim neka predviđanja.
15:16
So here they are.
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Eto ih.
15:18
In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.
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U slijedećih 10 godina, Kina će prestići S.A.D.
15:21
and become the largest economy in the world.
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i postati najveće gospodarstvo na svijetu.
15:23
Income per capita will be near the top
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Dohodak po glavi stanovnika biti će blizu vrha
15:25
of all developing countries.
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među svim zemljama u razvoju.
15:28
Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,
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Korupcija će biti obuzdana, ali ne i uklonjena
15:30
and China will move up 10 to 20 notches
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a Kina će se dići za 10 do 20 mjesta
15:32
to above 60 in T.I. ranking.
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do iznad 60 u popisu Transparency Internationala.
15:35
Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,
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Gospodarske reforme će ubrzati,
političke reforme će nastaviti,
političke reforme će nastaviti,
15:38
and the one-party system will hold firm.
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a jednostranački sustav će ostati postojan.
15:42
We live in the dusk of an era.
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Živimo u osvit jedne ere.
15:45
Meta-narratives that make universal claims
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Meta-pripovjetke koje daju opće tvrdnje
15:48
failed us in the 20th century
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su nas iznevjerile u 20. stoljeću
15:50
and are failing us in the 21st.
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i iznevjeruju nas u 21. stoljeću.
15:53
Meta-narrative is the cancer
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Meta-pripovjetka je rak
15:55
that is killing democracy from the inside.
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koji ubija demokraciju iznutra.
15:58
Now, I want to clarify something.
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Sad, želio bih razjasniti nešto.
16:00
I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.
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Nisam ovdje da složim optužnicu protiv demokracije.
16:02
On the contrary, I think democracy contributed
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Naprotiv, mislim da je demokracija doprinjela
16:05
to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.
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usponu Zapada i stvaranju modernog svijeta.
16:08
It is the universal claim that many Western elites
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Nego je univerzalna tvrdnja koju brojne zapadne elite
16:11
are making about their political system, the hubris,
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govore o svojem političkom sustavu, oholost,
16:15
that is at the heart of the West's current ills.
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ono što je u srcu sadašnjih problema Zapada.
16:18
If they would spend just a little less time
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Kada bi potrošili samo malo manje vremena
16:20
on trying to force their way onto others,
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pokušavajući utuviti svoj način drugima,
16:23
and a little bit more on political reform at home,
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a malo više na političku reformu u kući,
16:26
they might give their democracy a better chance.
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mogli bi dati svojoj demokraciji bolje izglede.
16:30
China's political model will never supplant
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Kineski politički model nikad neće istisnut
16:32
electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,
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izbornu demokraciju, jer za razliku od potonjeg,
16:34
it doesn't pretend to be universal.
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ne pokušava biti univerzalan.
16:36
It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.
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Ne može biti izvožen. Ali upravo to i jest poanta.
16:40
The significance of China's example
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Značaj primjera Kine
16:43
is not that it provides an alternative,
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nije da daje alternativu,
16:45
but the demonstration that alternatives exist.
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nego da pokaže da alternativa postoji.
16:49
Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.
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Završimo ovu eru meta-pripovjedaka.
16:53
Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,
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Komunizam i demokracija
mogu oboje biti hvalevrijedni ideali,
mogu oboje biti hvalevrijedni ideali,
16:56
but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.
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ali era njihovog dogmatskog univerzalizma je gotova.
17:00
Let us stop telling people and our children
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Prestanimo pričati ljudima i svojoj djeci
17:03
there's only one way to govern ourselves
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kako postoji samo jedan način da se vlada
17:05
and a singular future towards which
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i jedinstvena budućnost prema kojoj
17:07
all societies must evolve.
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se sva društva moraju razviti.
17:09
It is wrong. It is irresponsible.
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To je krivo. To je neodgovorno.
17:12
And worst of all, it is boring.
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I najgore od svega, to je dosadno.
17:16
Let universality make way for plurality.
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Neka univerzalizam napravi mjesta pluralizmu.
17:20
Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.
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Možda nam dolazi zanimljivije doba.
17:23
Are we brave enough to welcome it?
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Jesmo li dovoljno hrabri
da mu zaželimo dobrodošlicu?
da mu zaželimo dobrodošlicu?
17:25
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
17:43
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.
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Hvala. Hvala. Hvala. Fala.
17:46
Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,
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Bruno Giussani: Eric, ostani sa mnom par minuta,
17:49
because I want to ask you a couple of questions.
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jer želio bih ti postaviti par pitanja.
17:51
I think many here, and in general in Western countries,
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Mislim da bi se puno njih ovdje,
i općenito u Zapadnim zemljama,
i općenito u Zapadnim zemljama,
17:55
would agree with your statement about analysis
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složilo sa tvojom tvrdnjom o analizi
17:58
of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,
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kako demokratski sustavi postaju disfunkcionalni,
18:01
but at the same time, many would kind of find
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ali istovremeno, puno njih bi nekako smatralo
18:04
unsettling the thought that there is an unelected
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uznemirujućom pomisao da postoji neizabrana
18:08
authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,
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vlast koja,
bez ikakvog oblika nadzora ili savjetovanja,
bez ikakvog oblika nadzora ili savjetovanja,
18:13
decides what the national interest is.
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odlučuje što je državni interes.
18:16
What is the mechanism in the Chinese model
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Gdje je mehanizam u kineskom modelu
18:19
that allows people to say, actually,
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koji omogućuje ljudima da kažu, zapravo,
18:21
the national interest as you defined it is wrong?
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državni interesi kako ste ih definirali su pogrešni?
18:24
EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,
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EXL: Znaš, Frank Fukuyama, politolog,
18:28
called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."
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je nazvao kineski sustav "prijemljivi autoritarizam."
18:32
It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.
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Nije posve točno, ali mislim da je blizu.
18:35
So I know the largest public opinion survey company
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Dakle znam koja je najveća firma
za ispitivanje javnog mnijenja
za ispitivanje javnog mnijenja
18:39
in China, okay?
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u Kini, ok?
18:41
Do you know who their biggest client is?
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Znaš li koji je njihov najveći klijent?
18:43
The Chinese government.
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Kineska vlada.
18:45
Not just from the central government,
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Ne samo od središnje uprave,
18:48
the city government, the provincial government,
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gradske uprave, provincijske uprave
18:49
to the most local neighborhood districts.
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do najmjesnijeg okruga veličine susjedstva.
18:51
They conduct surveys all the time.
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Stalno provode ispitivanja.
18:53
Are you happy with the garbage collection?
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Jeste li zadovoljni prikupljanjem otpada?
18:56
Are you happy with the general direction of the country?
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Jeste li zadovoljni općim upravljanjem državom?
18:58
So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism
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Dakle u kini ima različitih vrsta mehanizama
19:01
to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.
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kako biti prijemljiv na potrebe i razmišljanja ljudi.
19:05
My point is, I think we should get unstuck
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Moja je poanta, mislim da bi se trebali osloboditi
19:08
from the thinking that there's only one political system --
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iz razmišljanja
kako postoji samo jedan politički sustav --
kako postoji samo jedan politički sustav --
19:11
election, election, election --
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izbori, izbori, izbori --
19:12
that could make it responsive.
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koji ni mogao biti prijemljiv.
19:14
I'm not sure, actually, elections produce
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Nisam siguran, zapravo, da izbori više stvaraju
19:16
responsive government anymore in the world.
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prijemljive vlasti u svijetu.
19:19
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
19:23
BG: Many seem to agree.
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BG: Čini se da se puno njih slaže.
19:25
One of the features of a democratic system
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Jedna od odlika demokratskog sustava
19:27
is a space for civil society to express itself.
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je prostor za građansko društvo da se izrazi.
19:31
And you have shown figures about the support
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I pokazao si brojke o podršci
19:33
that the government and the authorities have in China.
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koju vlada i vlasti imaju u Kini.
19:36
But then you've just mentioned other elements
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Ali tad si spomenuo druge elemente
19:39
like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,
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poput, znaš, velikih izazova, a ima i, naravno,
19:41
a lot of other data that go in a different direction:
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puno drugih podataka
koji upućuju u različitom smjeru:
koji upućuju u različitom smjeru:
19:44
tens of thousands of unrests and protests
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Deseci tisuća nereda i protesta
19:47
and environmental protests, etc.
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i protesta glede okoliša, itd.
19:50
So you seem to suggest the Chinese model
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Izgleda da navodiš da kineski model
19:53
doesn't have a space outside of the Party
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nema prostora izvan Partije
19:55
for civil society to express itself.
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u kojem bi se građansko društvo moglo izraziti.
19:57
EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,
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EXL: U Kini postoji ustitrano građansko društvo,
20:01
whether it's environment or what-have-you.
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da li oko okoliša ili čega već.
20:03
But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.
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Ali je različito. Ne bi ga prepoznao.
20:05
Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society
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Jer, po Zapadnim definicijama,
takozvano građansko društvo
takozvano građansko društvo
20:08
has to be separate or even in opposition
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mora biti odijeljeno ili čak suprotstavljeno
20:11
to the political system,
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političkom sustavu,
20:13
but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.
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ali taj je koncept kineskoj kulturi stran.
20:17
For thousands of years, you have civil society,
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Tisućama godina, imate građansko društvo,
20:20
yet they are consistent and coherent
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pa ipak je u skladu i koherentno
20:22
and part of a political order, and I think
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i dio političkog poretka, te mislim
20:25
it's a big cultural difference.
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da je to velika kulturna razlika.
20:29
BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED.
EXL: Thank you.
EXL: Thank you.
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BG: Eric, hvala ti što si podijelio ovo s TED-om.
EXL: Hvala.
EXL: Hvala.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientistA venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.
Why you should listen
A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com