TEDGlobal 2013
Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems
Eric X. Li: Zgodba o dveh političnih sistemih
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Na Zahodu vlada standardna predpostavka: družba se skozi napredek razvije v kapitalistično, večstrankarsko demokracijo. Res? Eric X. Li, kitajski vlagatelj in politolog, trdi drugače. V tem provokativnem govoru, ki podira meje, nas spodbudi k razmišljanju, da obstaja več kot le en način vodenja uspešne sodobne države.
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Good morning.
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Dobro jutro.
00:14
My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.
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Sem Eric Li in rodil sem se tukaj.
00:19
But no, I wasn't born there.
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Pravzaprav ne.
00:21
This was where I was born:
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Rojen sem bil tu,
00:24
Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.
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v Šanghaju na vrhuncu Kulturne revolucije.
00:28
My grandmother tells me that she heard
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Babica mi je pripovedovala,
00:29
the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.
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da je moj prvi jok
spremljal zvok streljanja.
spremljal zvok streljanja.
00:33
When I was growing up, I was told a story
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Med odraščanjem sem slišal zgodbo,
00:36
that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.
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ki je pojasnjevala vse,
kar sem moral vedeti o človeštvu.
kar sem moral vedeti o človeštvu.
00:40
It went like this.
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Zgodba je šla tako.
00:41
All human societies develop in linear progression,
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Vse človeške družbe se razvijajo
in napredujejo linearno.
in napredujejo linearno.
00:45
beginning with primitive society, then slave society,
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Začne se s primitivno družbo,
sledi ji suženjstvo,
sledi ji suženjstvo,
00:48
feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
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fevdalizem, kapitalizem, socializem
00:51
and finally, guess where we end up?
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in kje končamo?
00:54
Communism!
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Pri komunizmu!
00:57
Sooner or later, all of humanity,
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Prej ali slej naj bi
vsaka človeška družba,
vsaka človeška družba,
01:01
regardless of culture, language, nationality,
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ne glede na kulturo, jezik, ali narodnost
01:03
will arrive at this final stage
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dosegla to zadnjo stopnjo
01:06
of political and social development.
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političnega in družbenega razvoja.
01:08
The entire world's peoples will be unified
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Ljudstva vsega sveta bodo združena
01:10
in this paradise on Earth
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v raju na Zemlji
01:13
and live happily ever after.
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in živela srečno do konca svojih dni.
01:15
But before we get there, we're engaged
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Preden pa to dosežemo, smo ujeti v boj
01:18
in a struggle between good and evil,
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med dobrim in zlim,
01:20
the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,
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med dobrim socializmom
in zlim kapitalizmom,
in zlim kapitalizmom,
01:23
and the good shall triumph.
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dobro pa bo prevladalo nad slabim.
01:25
That, of course, was the meta-narrative
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To je seveda bila meta-pripoved,
01:28
distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.
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povzeta po teorijah Karla Marxa.
01:31
And the Chinese bought it.
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Kitajci so jo vzeli za svojo.
01:33
We were taught that grand story day in and day out.
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To zgodbo smo poslušali dan za dnem.
01:36
It became part of us, and we believed in it.
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Postala je del nas in verjeli smo vanjo.
01:39
The story was a bestseller.
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Zgodba je postala uspešnica.
01:41
About one third of the entire world's population
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Približno tretjina svetovnega prebivalstva
01:43
lived under that meta-narrative.
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je živela to meta-pripoved.
01:46
Then, the world changed overnight.
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Nato se je svet čez noč spremenil.
01:49
As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,
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Sam sem, razočaran nad porazom
religije moje mladosti,
religije moje mladosti,
01:52
I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.
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šel v Ameriko in postal
hipi na Berkeleyju.
hipi na Berkeleyju.
01:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:59
Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.
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Ko sem postajal starejši,
se je zgodilo še nekaj.
se je zgodilo še nekaj.
02:02
As if one big story wasn't enough,
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Kot da ena velika zgodba
ne bi bila dovolj,
ne bi bila dovolj,
02:04
I was told another one.
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sem slišal še eno.
02:07
This one was just as grand.
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Bila je prav tako velika.
02:10
It also claims that all human societies
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Tudi ta je trdila, da razvoj vseh družb
02:12
develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.
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linearno napreduje proti enotnemu cilju.
02:16
This one went as follows:
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Zgodba je šla tako:
02:19
All societies, regardless of culture,
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Vse družbe, ne glede na njihovo kulturo,
02:21
be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,
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bodisi krščansko, muslimansko
ali konfucijansko,
ali konfucijansko,
02:24
must progress from traditional societies
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se razvijejo iz tradicionalnih družb
02:26
in which groups are the basic units
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s skupinami kot osnovnimi enotami
02:29
to modern societies in which atomized individuals
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v sodobne družbe, v katerih so
izolirani posamezniki samostojne enote,
izolirani posamezniki samostojne enote,
02:33
are the sovereign units,
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02:34
and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,
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ti pa so v osnovi razumska bitja
02:38
and they all want one thing:
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in vsi želijo le eno,
02:40
the vote.
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volilni glas.
02:42
Because they are all rational, once given the vote,
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Ker so ljudje razumni, bodo volilni glas
02:45
they produce good government
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uporabili za sestavo dobre vlade in
vsi bodo živeli srečno do konca svojih dni.
vsi bodo živeli srečno do konca svojih dni.
02:46
and live happily ever after.
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02:49
Paradise on Earth, again.
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Še en raj na Zemlji.
02:52
Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be
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Prej ali slej naj bi volilna demokracija
02:55
the only political system for all countries and all peoples,
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postala edini politični sistem
za vse države in vse ljudi,
za vse države in vse ljudi,
02:59
with a free market to make them all rich.
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vključno s prostim trgom,
s katerim bodo vsi bogati.
s katerim bodo vsi bogati.
03:01
But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle
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A preden to dosežemo, smo ujeti v boj
03:05
between good and evil.
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med dobrim in zlim.
03:06
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:08
The good belongs to those who are democracies
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Dobro je na strani demokracij,
03:10
and are charged with a mission of spreading it
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in njihovo poslanstvo je širjenje le-te,
tudi z uporabo sile,
tudi z uporabo sile,
03:12
around the globe, sometimes by force,
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03:16
against the evil of those who do not hold elections.
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v zlih deželah, kjer nimajo volitev.
03:19
(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...
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George H. W. Bush: Nov svetovni red ...
03:21
(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...
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G. W. Bush:
... konec tiranije na svetu ...
... konec tiranije na svetu ...
03:23
(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all
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Barack Obama: ... enoten standard za vse,
ki bodo na oblasti.
ki bodo na oblasti.
03:25
who would hold power.
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03:28
Eric X. Li: Now --
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Eric X. Li: Torej ...
03:30
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplavz)
03:38
This story also became a bestseller.
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Tudi ta zgodba je postala uspešnica.
03:42
According to Freedom House,
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Po podatkih organizacije Hiša svobode
03:44
the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970
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je število demokratičnih družb
naraslo s 45 leta 1970
naraslo s 45 leta 1970
03:47
to 115 in 2010.
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na 115 leta 2010.
03:49
In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly
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Zadnjih 20 let zahodne elite neutrudno
03:52
trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:
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po svetu prodajajo to reklamo.
03:56
Multiple parties fight for political power
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Številne politične stranke
se borijo za oblast
se borijo za oblast
03:58
and everyone voting on them
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in vsak njihov volivec
04:00
is the only path to salvation
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je edina pot do odrešitve
04:02
to the long-suffering developing world.
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dolgo zatiranega sveta v razvoju.
04:05
Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.
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Tisti, ki sprejmejo ta način,
bodo zagotovo uspeli.
bodo zagotovo uspeli.
04:08
Those who do not are doomed to fail.
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Drugi bodo pogubljeni.
04:11
But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.
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A te zgodbe Kitajci niso vzeli za svojo.
04:14
Fool me once ...
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Osel gre samo enkrat ...
04:17
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:21
The rest is history.
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Ostalo je zgodovina.
04:23
In just 30 years, China went from
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V le 30 letih se je Kitajska
04:25
one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world
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iz ene najrevnejših
poljedelskih držav na svetu
poljedelskih držav na svetu
04:27
to its second-largest economy.
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razvila v drugo največje gospodarstvo.
04:30
Six hundred fifty million people
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650 milijonov ljudi
04:32
were lifted out of poverty.
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se je dvignilo iz revščine.
04:33
Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation
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80 odstotkov svetovnega reševanja revščine
04:36
during that period happened in China.
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se je v tistem obdobju
zgodilo na Kitajskem.
zgodilo na Kitajskem.
04:38
In other words, all the new and old democracies
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Ali drugače, nove in stare
demokratične družbe skupaj
demokratične družbe skupaj
04:41
put together amounted to a mere fraction
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so predstavljale le drobec tega,
04:44
of what a single, one-party state did without voting.
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kar je ena enostrankarska država
dosegla brez volitev.
dosegla brez volitev.
04:49
See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.
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Odraščal sem ob teh bonih za hrano.
04:53
Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
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V določenem obdobju je bilo meso odmerjeno
na le nekaj sto gramov na osebo na mesec.
na le nekaj sto gramov na osebo na mesec.
04:55
per person per month at one point.
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04:57
Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.
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Seveda sem pojedel vse,
kar je babica dobila.
kar je babica dobila.
05:01
So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?
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Vprašal sem se, kaj je tu narobe?
05:05
Here I am in my hometown,
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V mojem rojstnem kraju
05:07
my business growing leaps and bounds.
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moje podjetje skokoma raste,
05:09
Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.
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nova podjetja se odpirajo vsak dan.
05:11
Middle class is expanding in speed and scale
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Srednji razred se širi
s hitrostjo in v obsegu,
s hitrostjo in v obsegu,
05:14
unprecedented in human history.
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ki nima primere v človeški zgodovini.
05:16
Yet, according to the grand story,
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A glede na veliko zgodbo
05:19
none of this should be happening.
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se nič od tega ne bi smelo dogajati.
05:22
So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.
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Storil sem edino, kar sem lahko.
Preučeval sem jo.
Preučeval sem jo.
05:25
Yes, China is a one-party state
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Da, Kitajska je enostrankarska država,
05:27
run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,
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ki jo vodi Kitajska komunistična partija,
vélika Partija,
vélika Partija,
05:31
and they don't hold elections.
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nimajo pa volitev.
05:33
Three assumptions are made
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Tri predpostavke o takem sistemu
05:35
by the dominant political theories of our time.
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so znane v sodobnih vodilnih
političnih teorijah.
političnih teorijah.
05:38
Such a system is operationally rigid,
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Tak sistem je operativno tog,
05:41
politically closed, and morally illegitimate.
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politično zaprt in moralno sporen.
05:45
Well, the assumptions are wrong.
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Vse te predpostavke so napačne.
05:48
The opposites are true.
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Pravilna so njihova nasprotja.
05:50
Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy
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Prilagodljivost, vladavina najzaslužnejših
in legitimnost so glavne tri značilnosti
in legitimnost so glavne tri značilnosti
05:53
are the three defining characteristics
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05:55
of China's one-party system.
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kitajskega enostrankarskega sistema.
05:58
Now, most political scientists will tell us
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Večina politologov bo trdila,
05:59
that a one-party system is inherently incapable
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da je enostrankarski sistem
v svojem bistvu nezmožen samonadzora.
v svojem bistvu nezmožen samonadzora.
06:03
of self-correction.
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06:05
It won't last long because it cannot adapt.
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Ne more trajati dolgo,
ker je neprilagodljiv.
ker je neprilagodljiv.
06:07
Now here are the facts.
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Poglejmo dejstva.
06:09
In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,
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V 64 letih vodenja
največje države na svetu
največje države na svetu
06:12
the range of the Party's policies has been wider
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je nabor partijskih programov širši
06:15
than any other country in recent memory,
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kot pri katerikoli državi v zadnjem času,
06:18
from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,
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od korenite kolektivizacije posestev
do Velikega skoka naprej,
do Velikega skoka naprej,
06:22
then privatization of farmland,
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od privatizacije kmetijskih zemljišč
06:25
then the Cultural Revolution,
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do Kulturne revolucije,
06:27
then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,
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od Deng Xiaopingove reforme trga
06:30
then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step
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do ogromnega političnega skoka
njegovega naslednika Jiang Zemina,
njegovega naslednika Jiang Zemina,
06:33
of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,
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ko je članstvo v Partiji
omogočil zasebnim podjetnikom,
omogočil zasebnim podjetnikom,
06:36
something unimaginable during Mao's rule.
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kar je bilo nepredstavljivo
med Maovo politiko.
med Maovo politiko.
06:39
So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.
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Partija se je torej razvijala
na dramatične načine.
na dramatične načine.
06:43
Institutionally, new rules get enacted
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Institucionalno so se uzakonili
novi predpisi,
novi predpisi,
06:46
to correct previous dysfunctions.
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ki so popravljali prejšnje napake.
Tak primer je omejitev trajanja funkcij.
06:48
For example, term limits.
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06:50
Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,
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Politični vodje so si običajno dosmrtno
lastili svoje položaje
lastili svoje položaje
06:53
and they used that to accumulate power
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ter tako kopičili oblast
in ohranjali njihove predpise v veljavi.
in ohranjali njihove predpise v veljavi.
06:54
and perpetuate their rules.
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06:56
Mao was the father of modern China,
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Mao je bil oče sodobne Kitajske,
06:59
yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.
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a njegova predolga oblast je vodila
v usodne napake.
v usodne napake.
07:01
So the Party instituted term limits
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Partija je zato uzakonila omejitev funkcij
07:04
with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.
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z obvezno upokojitvijo
med 68. in 70. letom.
med 68. in 70. letom.
07:07
One thing we often hear is,
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Pogosto slišimo:
07:10
"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"
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"Politične reforme
so daleč za gospodarskimi,"
so daleč za gospodarskimi,"
07:13
and "China is in dire need of political reform."
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ter: "Kitajska krvavo potrebuje
politično reformo."
politično reformo."
07:16
But this claim is a rhetorical trap
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A ta trditev je retorična past,
07:19
hidden behind a political bias.
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skrita za političnimi težnjami.
07:22
See, some have decided a priori
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Nekateri so se namreč a priori odločili,
07:24
what kinds of changes they want to see,
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kakšne spremembe želijo videti,
07:26
and only such changes can be called political reform.
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in le take spremembe
bi lahko bile politične reforme.
bi lahko bile politične reforme.
07:30
The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.
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Dejstvo je, da se politične reforme
nikoli niso ustavile.
nikoli niso ustavile.
07:33
Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,
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Če situacijo primerjamo s tisto
izpred 30, 20 ali celo 10 let,
izpred 30, 20 ali celo 10 let,
07:36
every aspect of Chinese society,
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je vsak vidik Kitajske družbe
in vladanja državi,
in vladanja državi,
07:38
how the country is governed,
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07:39
from the most local level to the highest center,
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od krajevnih uradnikov
do najvišjega nivoja,
do najvišjega nivoja,
07:41
are unrecognizable today.
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danes popolnoma drugačen.
07:44
Now such changes are simply not possible
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Take spremembe preprosto niso mogoče
07:47
without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.
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brez najbolj korenitih političnih reform.
07:51
Now I would venture to suggest the Party
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Drznil si bom trditi, da je Partija
07:53
is the world's leading expert in political reform.
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vodilni svetovni strokovnjak
za politične reforme.
za politične reforme.
07:57
The second assumption is that in a one-party state,
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Druga predpostavka je,
da se v enostrankarski državi
da se v enostrankarski državi
08:00
power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,
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oblast kopiči le v rokah maloštevilnih,
08:03
and bad governance and corruption follow.
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čemur sledita slabo vodenje in korupcija.
08:05
Indeed, corruption is a big problem,
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Korupcija je res velika težava,
08:08
but let's first look at the larger context.
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a najprej poglejmo širše.
08:10
Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.
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To se vam bo morda zdelo kontradiktorno.
08:12
The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic
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Partija je politična ustanova,
08:15
political institutions in the world today.
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ki dosledno vodi
po principu vladanja najzaslužnejših.
po principu vladanja najzaslužnejših.
08:18
China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.
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Najvišje kitajsko vladajoče telo,
Politbiro, ima 25 članov.
Politbiro, ima 25 članov.
08:22
In the most recent one, only five of them
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V njegovi zadnji sestavi le pet članov
08:24
came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.
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prihaja iz privilegiranih ozadij, so
potomci vplivnih očetov moderne Kitajske.
potomci vplivnih očetov moderne Kitajske.
08:27
The other 20, including the president and the premier,
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Ostalih 20, s predsednikom
in ministrskim predsednikom
in ministrskim predsednikom
08:30
came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.
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prihaja iz popolnoma običajnih okolij.
08:33
In the larger central committee of 300 or more,
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V širšem centralnem komiteju
z več kot 300 člani
z več kot 300 člani
08:35
the percentage of those who were born
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je odstotek tistih, ki so bili rojeni
v oblast in bogastvo, še manjši.
v oblast in bogastvo, še manjši.
08:37
into power and wealth was even smaller.
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08:39
The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders
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Velika večina starejših kitajskih vodij
08:42
worked and competed their way to the top.
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si je z delom prislužila pot do vrha.
08:45
Compare that with the ruling elites
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Primerjajte to z vladajočimi elitami
08:47
in both developed and developing countries,
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2102
v razvitih državah in tistih v razvoju.
08:49
I think you'll find the Party being near the top
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2510
Odkrili boste, da je Partija v vrhu
08:52
in upward mobility.
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sistemov z mobilnostjo napredovanja.
08:54
The question then is, how could that be possible
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Vprašanje je, kako je to mogoče
08:57
in a system run by one party?
192
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v sistemu, ki mu vlada ena stranka?
09:00
Now we come to a powerful political institution,
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Prišli smo do močne politične inštitucije,
ki je Zahodnjakom malo poznana -
ki je Zahodnjakom malo poznana -
09:03
little-known to Westerners:
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09:04
the Party's Organization Department.
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Organizacijski oddelek Partije.
09:07
The department functions like a giant
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2200
Ta organ deluje kot ogromen
09:09
human resource engine that would be the envy
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2376
kadrovski motor, ki bi ga želelo
09:12
of even some of the most successful corporations.
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marsikatero od najuspešnejših podjetij.
09:15
It operates a rotating pyramid
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Upravlja in nadzira vrtečo se piramido,
09:17
made up of three components:
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sestavljeno iz treh delov:
09:19
civil service, state-owned enterprises,
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civilna služba, podjetja v državni lasti
09:21
and social organizations like a university
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in družbene organizacije, kot je univerza
09:23
or a community program.
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2138
ali lokalni programi.
09:26
They form separate yet integrated career paths
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2511
To so ločene, a povezane poklicne poti
09:28
for Chinese officials.
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1904
za kitajske uradnike.
09:30
They recruit college grads into entry-level positions
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3085
Diplomante zaposlijo na vstopnih mestih
09:33
in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,
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2750
v vseh treh delih, začnejo pa na dnu,
09:36
called "keyuan" [clerk].
208
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imenovanem "keyuan" [uslužbenec]
09:37
Then they could get promoted
209
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1383
Od tam lahko napredujejo
09:39
through four increasingly elite ranks:
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567317
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preko štirih vse višjih položajev:
09:44
fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].
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fuke (namestnik pododdelčnega vodje), ke (pododdelčni vodja),
fuchu (namestnik vodje oddelka ) in chu (oddelčni vodja).
fuchu (namestnik vodje oddelka ) in chu (oddelčni vodja).
09:47
Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?
212
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To niso gibi iz filma "Karate Kid", prav?
Gre za resno zadevo.
Gre za resno zadevo.
09:49
It's serious business.
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3497
09:53
The range of positions is wide,
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2337
Nabor položajev je širok,
09:55
from running health care in a village
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583736
1604
od vodenja vaške zdravstvene oskrbe
prek tujih naložb v mestnem predelu
prek tujih naložb v mestnem predelu
09:57
to foreign investment in a city district
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09:59
to manager in a company.
217
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do vodenja podjetja.
10:01
Once a year, the department reviews their performance.
218
589708
2322
Enkrat letno oddelek
pregleda njihovo delo.
pregleda njihovo delo.
10:04
They interview their superiors, their peers,
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2609
Opravijo intervjuje
z njihovimi nadrejenimi, kolegi
z njihovimi nadrejenimi, kolegi
10:06
their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.
220
594639
2781
in podrejenimi. Opazujejo njihovo vedenje.
10:09
They conduct public opinion surveys.
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Izvedejo raziskave javnega mnenja.
10:11
Then they promote the winners.
222
599452
1963
Najboljše povišajo.
10:13
Throughout their careers, these cadres
223
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Med njihovo kariero se ti kadri
10:14
can move through and out of all three tracks.
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gibljejo znotraj in med vsemi tremi deli.
10:18
Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels
225
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2878
Čez čas se najboljši prebijejo
mimo vseh štirih stopenj
mimo vseh štirih stopenj
10:20
to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.
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do nazivov fuju (namestnik vodje urada)
in ju (vodja urada).
in ju (vodja urada).
10:23
There, they enter high officialdom.
227
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2844
Takrat postanejo višji uradniki.
10:26
By that point, a typical assignment will be
228
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2160
Na tem mestu je njihova tipična naloga
10:28
to manage a district with a population in the millions
229
616657
2859
vodenje področja
z večmilijonskim prebivalstvom
z večmilijonskim prebivalstvom
10:31
or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
230
619516
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ali podjetja
s stotinami milijonov dolarjev prihodkov.
s stotinami milijonov dolarjev prihodkov.
10:35
Just to show you how competitive the system is,
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Da si lažje predstavljate
konkurenčnost sistema,
konkurenčnost sistema,
10:38
in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,
232
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3718
leta 2012 je bilo
900.000 položajev fuke in ke,
900.000 položajev fuke in ke,
10:42
600,000 fuchu and chu levels,
233
630694
2824
600.000 položajev fuchu in chu,
10:45
and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.
234
633518
3435
ter samo 40.000 položajev fuju in ju.
10:48
After the ju levels,
235
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1728
Po položajih ju
10:50
the best few move further up several more ranks,
236
638681
2601
se najboljši prebijejo
prek naslednjih nekaj nivojev
prek naslednjih nekaj nivojev
10:53
and eventually make it to the Central Committee.
237
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3131
in naposled dosežejo Centralni komite.
10:56
The process takes two to three decades.
238
644413
2752
Ta pot traja dve do tri desetletja.
10:59
Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.
239
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3109
Ali je pokroviteljstvo pomembno?
Seveda je.
Seveda je.
11:02
But merit remains the fundamental driver.
240
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3572
A glavno vodilo so zasluge.
11:05
In essence, the Organization Department runs
241
653846
2530
Organizacijski oddelek pravzaprav vodi
11:08
a modernized version of China's centuries-old
242
656376
2473
posodobljeno različico
kitajskega stoletja starega
kitajskega stoletja starega
11:10
mentoring system.
243
658849
2064
mentorskega sistema.
11:12
China's new president, Xi Jinping,
244
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2091
Novi kitajski predsednik, Xi Jinping,
11:15
is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,
245
663004
2579
je sin bivšega vodje,
kar je zelo nenavadno
kar je zelo nenavadno
11:17
first of his kind to make the top job.
246
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2220
in je prvi te vrste, ki je dosegel vrh.
11:19
Even for him, the career took 30 years.
247
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2895
Tudi zanj je pot do tja trajala 30 let.
11:22
He started as a village manager,
248
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1868
Začel je kot vaški vodja
11:24
and by the time he entered the Politburo,
249
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1912
in ko je bil sprejet v Politbiro,
11:26
he had managed areas with a total population
250
674478
2206
je vodil področja
s skupnim prebivalstvom 150 milijonov
s skupnim prebivalstvom 150 milijonov
11:28
of 150 million people
251
676684
1604
11:30
and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
252
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4446
in skupnim BDP-jem 1,5 bilijona dolarjev.
11:34
Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?
253
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2320
Prosim, ne razumite me narobe.
11:37
This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.
254
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3254
Nikogar ne želim blatiti,
navajam le dejstva.
navajam le dejstva.
11:40
George W. Bush, remember him?
255
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3834
George W. Bush, se ga spominjate?
11:44
This is not a put-down.
256
692142
2441
To ni blatenje.
11:46
(Laughter)
257
694583
805
(Smeh)
11:47
Before becoming governor of Texas,
258
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3099
Preden je Bush postal guverner Teksasa,
11:50
or Barack Obama before running for president,
259
698487
2619
ali preden se je Barack Obama
potegoval za predsedstvo,
potegoval za predsedstvo,
11:53
could not make even a small county manager
260
701106
2759
ne bi mogla biti niti vodji
majhnega okrožja v kitajskem sistemu.
majhnega okrožja v kitajskem sistemu.
11:55
in China's system.
261
703865
1928
Winston Churchill je dejal,
da je demokracija
da je demokracija
11:57
Winston Churchill once said that democracy
262
705793
2022
11:59
is a terrible system except for all the rest.
263
707815
2319
grozen sistem z izjemo vseh ostalih.
12:02
Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.
264
710134
4281
Očitno ni slišal
za Organizacijski oddelek.
za Organizacijski oddelek.
12:06
Now, Westerners always assume that
265
714415
2344
Zahodnjaki predvidevajo,
12:08
multi-party election with universal suffrage
266
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3018
da so večstrankarske volitve
z vsesplošno volilno pravico
z vsesplošno volilno pravico
12:11
is the only source of political legitimacy.
267
719777
3142
edini vir do politične legitimnosti.
12:14
I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.
268
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3362
Nekoč so me vprašali:
"Partija ni bila izvoljena na volitvah,
"Partija ni bila izvoljena na volitvah,
12:18
Where is the source of legitimacy?"
269
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2230
od kje torej izhaja njena legitimnost?"
12:20
I said, "How about competency?"
270
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3562
Odgovoril sem: "Kaj pa sposobnost?"
12:24
We all know the facts.
271
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1477
Vsi poznamo dejstva.
12:25
In 1949, when the Party took power,
272
733550
1941
Ko je leta 1949 Partija prevzela oblast,
12:27
China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,
273
735491
3327
je bila Kitajska v državljanski vojni,
razkosana od tujih napadov,
razkosana od tujih napadov,
12:30
average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.
274
738818
4295
povprečna življenjska doba
je bila takrat 41 let.
je bila takrat 41 let.
12:35
Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,
275
743113
2910
Danes je Kitajska drugo največje
svetovno gospodarstvo,
svetovno gospodarstvo,
12:38
an industrial powerhouse, and its people live
276
746023
2603
industrijska gonilna sila,
njeno prebivalstvo pa živi
njeno prebivalstvo pa živi
12:40
in increasing prosperity.
277
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2087
v rastoči blaginji.
12:42
Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,
278
750713
3153
Raziskave Pew Research so merile
mnenja kitajske javnosti
mnenja kitajske javnosti
12:45
and here are the numbers in recent years.
279
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2057
in tu so številke zadnjih let.
12:47
Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.
280
755923
4500
Zadovoljstvo z usmerjenostjo države:
85 odstotkov.
85 odstotkov.
12:52
Those who think they're better off than five years ago:
281
760423
2311
Tisti, ki živijo bolje
kot pred petimi leti:
kot pred petimi leti:
12:54
70 percent.
282
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2264
70 odstotkov.
12:56
Those who expect the future to be better:
283
764998
2384
Delež tistih,
ki pričakujejo boljšo prihodnost:
ki pričakujejo boljšo prihodnost:
12:59
a whopping 82 percent.
284
767382
2664
debelih 82 odstotkov.
13:02
Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,
285
770046
3529
Financial Times je anketiral mnenja
mladine po celem svetu
mladine po celem svetu
13:05
and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.
286
773575
3415
in tu so najnovejše številke,
objavljene šele prejšnji teden.
objavljene šele prejšnji teden.
13:08
Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y
287
776990
2782
93 odstotkov kitajske Generacije Y
13:11
are optimistic about their country's future.
288
779772
2586
je optimističnih glede
prihodnosti njihove države.
prihodnosti njihove države.
13:14
Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.
289
782358
5888
Če to ni legitimnost, ne vem, kaj je.
13:20
In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world
290
788246
3169
Nasprotno pa se večina
izvoljenih demokracij po svetu
izvoljenih demokracij po svetu
13:23
are suffering from dismal performance.
291
791415
2103
sooča s klavrnimi izkupički.
13:25
I don't need to elaborate for this audience
292
793518
2315
Vam mi ni treba posebej razlagati,
13:27
how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.
293
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4337
kako disfunkcionalne so,
od Washingtona do Evropskih prestolnic.
od Washingtona do Evropskih prestolnic.
13:32
With a few exceptions, the vast number
294
800170
2889
Z le redkimi izjemami
ogromno število držav v razvoju,
ki so prevzele demokratične režime,
ki so prevzele demokratične režime,
13:35
of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes
295
803059
2907
13:37
are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.
296
805966
3811
še vedno trpi revščino
in državljanske spore.
in državljanske spore.
13:41
Governments get elected, and then they fall
297
809777
1940
Vlade so izvoljene,
13:43
below 50 percent approval in a few months
298
811717
2735
v nekaj mesecih jim podpora pade
pod 50 odstotkov,
pod 50 odstotkov,
13:46
and stay there and get worse until the next election.
299
814452
3548
obstanejo in slabšajo položaj
do naslednjih volitev.
do naslednjih volitev.
13:50
Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle
300
818000
2423
Demokracija postaja neprestan krog
volitev in kesanja.
volitev in kesanja.
13:52
of elect and regret.
301
820423
2378
13:54
At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,
302
822801
3529
Bojim se, da v tem trenutku demokracija,
13:58
not China's one-party system, that is in danger
303
826330
2620
ne kitajski enostrankarski sistem,
resno izgublja legitimnost.
resno izgublja legitimnost.
14:00
of losing legitimacy.
304
828950
2259
14:03
Now, I don't want to create the misimpression
305
831209
2850
Ne želim ustvariti napačnega vtisa,
14:06
that China's hunky-dory, on the way
306
834059
2008
da je Kitajska v najlepšem redu
in na poti k nekakšni supervelesili.
in na poti k nekakšni supervelesili.
14:08
to some kind of superpowerdom.
307
836067
1793
14:09
The country faces enormous challenges.
308
837860
2959
Spopada se namreč z gromozanskimi izzivi.
14:12
The social and economic problems that come
309
840819
1903
Družbeni in gospodarski problemi,
ki spremljajo
ki spremljajo
14:14
with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.
310
842722
4006
tako sunkovite spremembe,
so osupljivi.
so osupljivi.
14:18
Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.
311
846728
3547
En od njih je onesnaženje.
Varnost živil. Prebivalstvo.
Varnost živil. Prebivalstvo.
14:22
On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.
312
850275
3947
Na političnem prizorišču
je najhujši problem korupcija.
je najhujši problem korupcija.
14:26
Corruption is widespread and undermines the system
313
854222
2832
Zaradi svoje razširjenosti
spodkopava sistem
spodkopava sistem
14:29
and its moral legitimacy.
314
857054
1802
in njegovo moralno legitimnost.
14:30
But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.
315
858856
2847
A večina analitikov to bolezen
diagnosticira napačno.
diagnosticira napačno.
14:33
They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,
316
861703
2909
Trdijo, da je korupcija
posledica enostrankarskega sistema
posledica enostrankarskega sistema
14:36
and therefore, in order to cure it,
317
864612
1501
in za njeno rešitev
je treba pomesti s celotnim sistemom.
je treba pomesti s celotnim sistemom.
14:38
you have to do away with the entire system.
318
866113
2057
14:40
But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.
319
868170
3082
A bolj podroben pogled
bo razkril nasprotno.
bo razkril nasprotno.
14:43
Transparency International ranks China
320
871252
2920
Organizacija Transparency International
uvršča Kitajsko
uvršča Kitajsko
14:46
between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,
321
874172
3766
med 70. in 80. mesto v zadnjih letih
na lestvici 170 držav
na lestvici 170 držav
14:49
and it's been moving up.
322
877938
2177
in vsako leto je višje.
14:52
India, the largest democracy in the world,
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Indija, največja demokracija na svetu,
14:54
94 and dropping.
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je na 94. mestu in pada.
14:56
For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,
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Med okoli sto držav,
ki se uvrščajo za Kitajsko,
ki se uvrščajo za Kitajsko,
14:58
more than half of them are electoral democracies.
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je več kot polovica izvoljenih demokracij.
15:01
So if election is the panacea for corruption,
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Če so torej volitve
čudežno zdravilo za korupcijo,
čudežno zdravilo za korupcijo,
15:05
how come these countries can't fix it?
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zakaj še vedno obstaja v teh državah?
15:08
Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.
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Ukvarjam se s tveganimi naložbami.
Sklepam stave.
Sklepam stave.
15:11
It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without
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Ne bi bilo prav, da končam ta govor,
ne da postavim svoje trditve na kocko
in napovem nekaj izidov.
in napovem nekaj izidov.
15:14
putting myself on the line and making some predictions.
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15:16
So here they are.
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Tu so.
15:18
In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.
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V naslednjih 10 letih
bo Kitajska prehitela ZDA
bo Kitajska prehitela ZDA
15:21
and become the largest economy in the world.
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in postala največje gospodarstvo na svetu.
15:23
Income per capita will be near the top
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Prihodek na prebivalca bo blizu vrha
vseh držav v razvoju.
vseh držav v razvoju.
15:25
of all developing countries.
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15:28
Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,
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Korupcija bo zajezena, a ne odstranjena,
15:30
and China will move up 10 to 20 notches
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in Kitajska se bo pomaknila
10 do 20 mest navzgor,
10 do 20 mest navzgor,
15:32
to above 60 in T.I. ranking.
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nad 60. mesto na lestvici
Transparency International.
Transparency International.
Gospodarske reforme se bodo pospešile,
politične reforme se bodo nadaljevale
politične reforme se bodo nadaljevale
15:35
Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,
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15:38
and the one-party system will hold firm.
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in enopartijski sistem
se bo trdno obdržal.
se bo trdno obdržal.
15:42
We live in the dusk of an era.
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Priča smo mraku neke dobe.
15:45
Meta-narratives that make universal claims
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Meta-pripoved z univerzalnimi trditvami
15:48
failed us in the 20th century
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nas je razočarala v 20. stoletju
15:50
and are failing us in the 21st.
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in razočaranje traja tudi v 21. stoletju.
15:53
Meta-narrative is the cancer
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Meta-pripoved je rak,
15:55
that is killing democracy from the inside.
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ki razjeda demokracijo od znotraj.
15:58
Now, I want to clarify something.
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Nekaj želim pojasniti.
16:00
I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.
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Nisem tu, da bi obtoževal demokracijo.
16:02
On the contrary, I think democracy contributed
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Prav nasprotno, menim,
da je demokracija prispevala
da je demokracija prispevala
16:05
to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.
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k vzponu Zahoda
in gradnji sodobnega sveta.
in gradnji sodobnega sveta.
16:08
It is the universal claim that many Western elites
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Univerzalna teza,
ki jo Zahodne elite tvorijo
ki jo Zahodne elite tvorijo
16:11
are making about their political system, the hubris,
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3489
o njihovih političnih sistemih,
in njihov napuh
in njihov napuh
16:15
that is at the heart of the West's current ills.
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3239
so vzrok trenutnih bolezni Zahoda.
16:18
If they would spend just a little less time
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Če bi le malo manj časa namenili
16:20
on trying to force their way onto others,
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vsiljevanju njihovih načinov drugim
16:23
and a little bit more on political reform at home,
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3652
in ga več namenili
domačim političnim reformam,
domačim političnim reformam,
16:26
they might give their democracy a better chance.
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974672
3390
bi se morda njihovim demokracijam
bolje pisalo.
bolje pisalo.
16:30
China's political model will never supplant
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978062
2378
Kitajski politični model
ne bo nikoli izpodrinil
ne bo nikoli izpodrinil
16:32
electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,
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2320
demokracije in volitev,
saj si nasprotno od nje
saj si nasprotno od nje
16:34
it doesn't pretend to be universal.
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1957
ne domišlja, da je univerzalen.
16:36
It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.
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Ne more se ga izvoziti.
A ravno to je njegovo bistvo.
A ravno to je njegovo bistvo.
16:40
The significance of China's example
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2599
Pomen primera Kitajske ni v tem,
16:43
is not that it provides an alternative,
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1967
da predstavlja alternativo,
16:45
but the demonstration that alternatives exist.
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ampak v tem, da pokaže obstoj alternative.
16:49
Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.
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Povzemimo to obdobje meta-pripovedi.
16:53
Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,
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3363
Tako komunizem kot demokracija
sta lahko hvalevredna ideala,
sta lahko hvalevredna ideala,
16:56
but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.
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1004552
4101
a obdobje njunih dogmatskih
univerzalizmov je mimo.
univerzalizmov je mimo.
17:00
Let us stop telling people and our children
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2487
Nehajmo pripovedovati ljudem in otrokom,
17:03
there's only one way to govern ourselves
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da obstaja le en način, kako nas voditi,
17:05
and a singular future towards which
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in enotna prihodnost, proti kateri
se morajo razviti vse družbe.
se morajo razviti vse družbe.
17:07
all societies must evolve.
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2382
17:09
It is wrong. It is irresponsible.
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2795
To ni prav. To je neodgovorno.
17:12
And worst of all, it is boring.
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In kar je najhuje, dolgočasno je.
17:16
Let universality make way for plurality.
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3919
Naj univerzalnost da prostor pluralnosti.
17:20
Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.
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3197
Morda nas čaka bolj zanimiva doba.
17:23
Are we brave enough to welcome it?
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Smo dovolj pogumni, da jo sprejmemo?
17:25
Thank you.
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1194
Hvala lepa.
17:27
(Applause)
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16019
(Aplavz)
17:43
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.
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1051158
3636
Hvala. Hvala lepa.
Bruno Giussani: Eric,
ostanite na odru še nekaj minut,
ostanite na odru še nekaj minut,
17:46
Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,
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2206
17:49
because I want to ask you a couple of questions.
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2714
za vas imam še nekaj vprašanj.
17:51
I think many here, and in general in Western countries,
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3528
Marsikdo tu in na sploh v Zahodnih državah
17:55
would agree with your statement about analysis
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3402
bi se strinjal z vašimi trditvami
in analizami,
in analizami,
17:58
of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,
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2705
da demokratični sistemi
postajajo disfunkcionalni,
postajajo disfunkcionalni,
18:01
but at the same time, many would kind of find
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1069349
2927
a marsikdo bi hkrati tudi
težko sprejel misel,
težko sprejel misel,
18:04
unsettling the thought that there is an unelected
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3945
da obstaja neizvoljena avtoriteta,
ki brez nadzora ali posveta
ki brez nadzora ali posveta
18:08
authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,
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5396
18:13
decides what the national interest is.
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2915
odloča o nacionalnih interesih.
18:16
What is the mechanism in the Chinese model
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1084532
3002
Kateri je vzvod kitajskega modela,
s katerim lahko ljudje izrazijo
s katerim lahko ljudje izrazijo
18:19
that allows people to say, actually,
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2219
nestrinjanje z določenim
nacionalnim interesom?
nacionalnim interesom?
18:21
the national interest as you defined it is wrong?
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2587
18:24
EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,
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4062
Eric X Li: Politolog Frank Fukuyama
18:28
called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."
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3844
je kitajski sistem označil za
"odziven avtoritarizem".
"odziven avtoritarizem".
18:32
It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.
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To ni čisto točno, a mislim, da je blizu.
18:35
So I know the largest public opinion survey company
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Poznam največjo agencijo
za raziskave javnega mnenja na Kitajskem.
za raziskave javnega mnenja na Kitajskem.
18:39
in China, okay?
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18:41
Do you know who their biggest client is?
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2680
Veste, kdo je njihova največja stranka?
18:43
The Chinese government.
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1111892
1846
Kitajska vlada.
18:45
Not just from the central government,
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2466
Ne le centralna vlada,
pač pa tudi mestna in provincialna vlada
18:48
the city government, the provincial government,
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18:49
to the most local neighborhood districts.
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1117628
2079
ter celo najožja četrtna okrožja.
18:51
They conduct surveys all the time.
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1119707
2143
Raziskave izvajajo neprestano.
18:53
Are you happy with the garbage collection?
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2610
Ste zadovoljni z odvozom odpadkov?
18:56
Are you happy with the general direction of the country?
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Ste zadovoljni
s splošno usmeritvijo države?
s splošno usmeritvijo države?
18:58
So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism
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3261
Na Kitajskem obstaja torej drugačen vzvod
19:01
to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.
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3561
za odzivnost na zahteve in mnenja ljudi.
19:05
My point is, I think we should get unstuck
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1133394
3208
Moje bistvo je, da bi se morali odlepiti
od prepričanja,
da obstaja zgolj en politični sistem -
da obstaja zgolj en politični sistem -
19:08
from the thinking that there's only one political system --
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1136602
2431
19:11
election, election, election --
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1139033
1545
volitve, volitve, volitve -
19:12
that could make it responsive.
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1140578
1728
ki je odziven na mnenja ljudstva.
19:14
I'm not sure, actually, elections produce
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1142306
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Nisem več prepričan, da volitve še vedno
ustvarjajo odzivne vlade po svetu.
ustvarjajo odzivne vlade po svetu.
19:16
responsive government anymore in the world.
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2946
19:19
(Applause)
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1147236
4707
(Aplavz)
B. G.: Očitno se mnogi strinjajo.
Ena od značilnosti demokratičnega sistema
Ena od značilnosti demokratičnega sistema
19:23
BG: Many seem to agree.
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1160
19:25
One of the features of a democratic system
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1153103
2656
19:27
is a space for civil society to express itself.
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1155759
3269
je prostor, znotraj katerega
se lahko civilna družba izraža.
se lahko civilna družba izraža.
19:31
And you have shown figures about the support
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2368
Videli smo številke, ki predstavljajo
podporo vladi in organom na Kitajskem.
podporo vladi in organom na Kitajskem.
19:33
that the government and the authorities have in China.
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2904
19:36
But then you've just mentioned other elements
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3305
Omenili pa ste tudi druge elemente,
19:39
like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,
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1167605
2154
velike izzive, na katere opozarjajo
podatki v nasprotni smeri:
podatki v nasprotni smeri:
19:41
a lot of other data that go in a different direction:
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1169759
2926
19:44
tens of thousands of unrests and protests
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2657
na desettisoče nemirov in protestov,
19:47
and environmental protests, etc.
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1175342
2859
okoljski protesti itd.
19:50
So you seem to suggest the Chinese model
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1178201
3016
Videti je, da Kitajski model
nima prostora izven Partije,
nima prostora izven Partije,
19:53
doesn't have a space outside of the Party
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1181217
2111
znotraj katerega
bi se lahko civilna družba izražala.
bi se lahko civilna družba izražala.
19:55
for civil society to express itself.
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1183328
2301
19:57
EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,
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1185629
4178
Eric X Li: Na Kitajskem
je živahna civilna družba,
je živahna civilna družba,
ki se izraža glede okolja in ostalega.
20:01
whether it's environment or what-have-you.
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1189807
1629
20:03
But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.
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2248
A je drugačna, ne bi je prepoznali.
20:05
Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society
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2882
Po zahodnih definicijah
naj bi bila t. i. civilna družba
naj bi bila t. i. civilna družba
20:08
has to be separate or even in opposition
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2844
ločena ali celo nasprotujoča
političnemu sistemu,
političnemu sistemu,
20:11
to the political system,
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1199410
1691
20:13
but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.
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4765
kar pa je tuje Kitajski kulturi.
20:17
For thousands of years, you have civil society,
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Tisoče let že obstaja civilna družba,
20:20
yet they are consistent and coherent
436
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2489
ki pa je usklajena in povezana
20:22
and part of a political order, and I think
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1210828
2847
ter del političnega reda,
kar mislim,
da je velika kulturna razlika.
da je velika kulturna razlika.
20:25
it's a big cultural difference.
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3370
20:29
BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED.
EXL: Thank you.
EXL: Thank you.
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BG. Eric, hvala da ste to delili na TED-u.
Eric X Li. Hvala lepa.
Eric X Li. Hvala lepa.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientistA venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.
Why you should listen
A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com