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Dambisa Moyo: Economic growth has stalled. Let's fix it
Dambisa Mojo (Dambisa Moyo): Ekonomski razvoj je u zastoju. Hajde to da popravimo
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Ekonomski razvoj je definišući izazov našeg vremena; bez toga, politička i društvena nestabilnost se širi, ljudski razvoj stagnira i društva su u tmini. Ekonomistkinja Dambisa Mojo kaže da kapitalizam neće napraviti razvoj koji nam je potreban. Ona ukazuje na to da u modelu državne finansijske podrške i modelu tržišnog pogona, kapitalizam ne uspeva da reši socijalne probleme, podstiče korupciju i stvara nejednakost prihoda. Mojo istražuje trenutnu ekonomsku situaciju i predlaže da počnemo da razmišljamo o kapitalizmu kao o spektru, kako bismo mogli da uklopimo najbolje od različitih modela i podstaknemo razvoj.
Dambisa Moyo - Global economist
Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs. Full bio
Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs. Full bio
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00:13
Our ability to create
and sustain economic growth
and sustain economic growth
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Naša sposobnost da stvorimo i očuvamo
ekonomski razvoj
ekonomski razvoj
00:18
is the defining challenge of our time.
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je definišući izazov našeg vremena.
00:21
Of course there are other challenges --
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Naravno, postoje i drugi izazovi,
00:23
health care, disease burdens
and pandemics,
and pandemics,
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zdravstvo, previše bolesti i epidemije,
00:26
environmental challenges
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ekološki izazovi
00:29
and, of course, radicalized terrorism.
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i naravno, radikalizovani terorizam.
00:32
However,
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Ipak,
00:34
to the extent that we can actually
solve the economic growth challenge,
solve the economic growth challenge,
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da zaista možemo da rešimo izazov
ekonomskog razvoja,
ekonomskog razvoja,
00:38
it will take us a long way
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pred nama je jako dug put
00:40
to solving the challenges
that I've just elucidated.
that I've just elucidated.
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da rešimo izazove koje smo pomenuli.
00:43
More importantly,
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Najvažnije,
00:45
unless and until we solve economic growth
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ukoliko i dok ne rešimo ekonomski razvoj
00:49
and create sustainable,
long-term economic growth,
long-term economic growth,
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i stvorimo održivi, dugoročni
ekonomski razvoj
ekonomski razvoj
00:53
we'll be unable to address
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nećemo moći da ukažemo
00:56
the seemingly intractable challenges
that continue to pervade the globe today,
that continue to pervade the globe today,
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na najteže izazove koji nastavljaju
da prožimaju svet,
da prožimaju svet,
01:01
whether it's health care,
education or economic development.
education or economic development.
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bilo to zdravstvo, obrazovanje
ili ekonomski razvoj.
ili ekonomski razvoj.
01:06
The fundamental question is this:
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Osnovno pitanje je sledeće:
01:09
How are we going to create economic growth
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kako ćemo da stvorimo ekonomski razvoj
01:12
in advanced and developed economies
like the United States and across Europe
like the United States and across Europe
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u naprednim i ravijenim ekonomijama poput
Sjedinjenih Država i Evrope
Sjedinjenih Država i Evrope
01:16
at a time when they continue to struggle
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u vremenu gde se oni bore
01:18
to create economic growth
after the financial crisis?
after the financial crisis?
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da stvore ekonomski razvoj
posle finansijske krize?
posle finansijske krize?
01:22
They continue to underperform
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Oni nastavljaju da posustaju
01:25
and to see an erosion in the three
key drivers of economic growth:
key drivers of economic growth:
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i vide erozije u tri ključne stvari
ekonomskog razvoja:
ekonomskog razvoja:
01:30
capital, labor and productivity.
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kapitalu, radu i produktivnosti.
01:34
In particular,
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Posebno,
01:35
these developed economies
continue to see debts and deficits,
continue to see debts and deficits,
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ove razvijene ekonomije
suočavaju se sa dugovanjima i deficitima,
suočavaju se sa dugovanjima i deficitima,
01:40
the decline and erosion
of both the quality and quantity of labor
of both the quality and quantity of labor
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padom kvaliteta i količine rada
01:45
and they also see productivity stalling.
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i takođe zastojem u produktivnosti.
01:48
In a similar vein,
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Na sličan način,
01:50
how are we going to create
economic growth in the emerging markets,
economic growth in the emerging markets,
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kako ćemo da stvorimo ekonomski razvoj
na tržištima u razvoju,
na tržištima u razvoju,
01:53
where 90 percent
of the world's population lives
of the world's population lives
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gde 90% svetske populacije živi
01:57
and where, on average,
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i gde, u proseku,
01:58
70 percent of the population
is under the age of 25?
is under the age of 25?
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70% populacije ima ispod 25 godina?
02:02
In these countries,
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U ovim zemljama,
02:04
it is essential that they grow
at a minimum of seven percent a year
at a minimum of seven percent a year
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potrebno je da se oni razvijaju
7% godišnje
7% godišnje
02:08
in order to put a dent in poverty
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kako bi ostavili trag u siromaštvu
02:10
and to double per capita incomes
in one generation.
in one generation.
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i da udvostruče primanja
po glavi stanovnika u jednoj generaciji.
po glavi stanovnika u jednoj generaciji.
02:14
And yet today,
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A ipak, danas,
02:16
the largest emerging economies --
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najveće rastuće ekonomije
02:18
countries with at least
50 million people --
50 million people --
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zemlje sa najmanje 50 miliona ljudi,
02:21
continue to struggle to reach
that seven percent magic mark.
that seven percent magic mark.
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nastavljaju da se bore kako bi dostigle
tu magičnu oznaku od 7%.
tu magičnu oznaku od 7%.
02:25
Worse than that,
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Još gore od toga,
02:27
countries like India, Russia,
South Africa, Brazil and even China
South Africa, Brazil and even China
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zemlje poput Indije, Rusije, Južne Afrike,
Brazila čak i Kine
Brazila čak i Kine
02:31
are falling below
that seven percent number
that seven percent number
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padaju ispod tog broja od 7%,
02:34
and, in many cases, actually regressing.
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i u mnogim slučajevima, čak i nazaduju.
02:37
Economic growth matters.
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Ekonomski razvoj je bitan.
02:40
With economic growth,
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Sa ekonomskim razvojem,
02:41
countries and societies
enter into a virtuous cycle
enter into a virtuous cycle
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zemlje i društva ulaze u začarani ciklus,
02:46
of upward mobility, opportunity
and improved living standards.
and improved living standards.
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vertikalne mobilnosti, mogućnosti
i unapređenih životnih standarda.
i unapređenih životnih standarda.
02:51
Without growth,
countries contract and atrophy,
countries contract and atrophy,
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Bez razvoja, zemlje se grče i atrofiraju,
02:55
not just in the annals
of economic statistics
of economic statistics
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ne samo u analima ekonomske statistike
02:58
but also in the meaning of life
and how lives are lived.
and how lives are lived.
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nego i u značenjima života
i kako se živi život.
i kako se živi život.
03:02
Economic growth matters
powerfully for the individual.
powerfully for the individual.
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Ekonomski razvoj ima veliki uticaj
za pojedinca.
za pojedinca.
03:07
If growth wanes,
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Ako razvoj opada,
03:08
the risk to human progress
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rizik za ljudski napredak
03:10
and the risk of political
and social instability rises,
and social instability rises,
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rizik za političke i socijalne
nestabilnosti se uvećava,
nestabilnosti se uvećava,
03:15
and societies become dimmer,
coarser and smaller.
coarser and smaller.
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društva postaju mračnija, grublja i manja.
03:20
The context matters.
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Kontekst je bitan.
03:22
And countries in emerging markets
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Zemlje u rastućim tržištima
03:23
do not need to grow at the same
rates as developed countries.
rates as developed countries.
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ne treba da rastu
isto kao razvijene zemlje.
isto kao razvijene zemlje.
03:29
Now, I know some of you in this room
find this to be a risky proposition.
find this to be a risky proposition.
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Neki ovde smatraju ovo
riskantnim predlogom.
riskantnim predlogom.
03:34
There are some people here
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Ovde su pojedini ljudi
03:36
who will turn around
and be quite disillusioned
and be quite disillusioned
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koji će se okrenuti i postati
sasvim razočarani
sasvim razočarani
03:39
by what's happened around the world
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onim što se dogodilo oko sveta
03:40
and basically ascribe that
to economic growth.
to economic growth.
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i pripisati to ekonomskom razvoju.
03:44
You worry about the
overpopulation of the planet.
overpopulation of the planet.
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Brinete o prenaseljenosti planete.
03:47
And looking at the UN's
recent statistics and projections
recent statistics and projections
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I gledajući na statistike UN-a
03:50
that the world will have
11 billion people on the planet
11 billion people on the planet
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da će svet imati 11 milijardi ljudi
03:53
before it plateaus in 2100,
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do 2100 godine,
03:56
you're concerned about what that does
to natural resources --
to natural resources --
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zabrinuti ste šta to čini
prirodnim resursima,
prirodnim resursima,
03:59
arable land, potable water,
energy and minerals.
energy and minerals.
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obradivoj zemlji, pitkoj vodi,
energiji i mineralima.
energiji i mineralima.
04:04
You are also concerned about
the degradation of the environment.
the degradation of the environment.
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Takođe ste zabrinuti
o degradaciji životne sredine.
o degradaciji životne sredine.
04:08
And you worry about how man,
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I brinete kako je čovek,
04:11
embodied in the corporate globalist,
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otelovljen u korporativnog globalistu,
04:14
has become greedy and corrupt.
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postao pohlepan i pokvaren.
04:18
But I'm here to tell you today
that economic growth
that economic growth
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Ja sam ovde da vam kažem
da je ekonomski razvoj
da je ekonomski razvoj
04:21
has been the backbone
of changes in living standards
of changes in living standards
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bio srž promene životnih standarda
04:25
of millions of people around the world.
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miliona ljudi na svetu.
04:27
And more importantly,
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I što je najvažnije,
04:29
it's not just economic growth
that has been driven by capitalism.
that has been driven by capitalism.
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nije samo ekonomski razvoj
bio pokrenut kapitalizmom.
bio pokrenut kapitalizmom.
04:36
The definition of capitalism,
very simply put,
very simply put,
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Definicija kapitalizma,
najprostije rečeno,
najprostije rečeno,
04:39
is that the factors of production,
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je da su faktori produktivnosti,
04:41
such as trade and industry,
capital and labor,
capital and labor,
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kao što su trgovina, industrija,
kapital i rad,
kapital i rad,
04:45
are left in the hands
of the private sector and not the state.
of the private sector and not the state.
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ostavljeni u rukama privatnog sektora,
a ne države.
a ne države.
04:49
It's really essential here
that we understand
that we understand
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Ovde je bitno da razumemo
04:52
that fundamentally the critique
is not for economic growth per se
is not for economic growth per se
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da fundamentalno, ne treba kritikovati
ekonomski razvoj
ekonomski razvoj
04:57
but what has happened to capitalism.
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već ono što se dogodilo kapitalizmu.
04:59
And to the extent that we need to create
economic growth over the long term,
economic growth over the long term,
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I kako bismo stvorili
dugoročni ekonomski razvoj,
dugoročni ekonomski razvoj,
05:03
we're going to have to pursue it
with a better form of economic stance.
with a better form of economic stance.
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moramo to da sledimo sa boljim
ekonomskim stavom.
ekonomskim stavom.
05:09
Economic growth needs capitalism,
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Ekonomskom razvoju
je potreban kapitalizam,
je potreban kapitalizam,
05:12
but it needs it to work properly.
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ali mora da radi kako treba.
05:14
And as I mentioned a moment ago,
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I kao što sam prethodno spomenula,
05:17
the core of the capitalist system
has been defined by private actors.
has been defined by private actors.
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srž kapitalističkog sistema
je definisana privatnim učesnicima.
je definisana privatnim učesnicima.
05:23
And even this, however,
is a very simplistic dichotomy.
is a very simplistic dichotomy.
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Čak je i ovo veoma jednostavna dihotomija.
05:27
Capitalism: good; non-capitalism: bad.
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Kapitalizam je dobar,
ne-kapitalizam je loš.
ne-kapitalizam je loš.
05:31
When in practical experience,
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U praktičnom iskustvu,
05:33
capitalism is much more of a spectrum.
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kapitalizam je više spektar.
05:36
And we have countries such as China,
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Imamo zemlje poput Kine,
05:38
which have practiced
more state capitalism,
more state capitalism,
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koja je praktikovala
više državnog kapitalizma
više državnog kapitalizma
05:41
and we have countries
like the Unites States
like the Unites States
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i imamo zemlje poput Sjedinjenih Država
05:43
which are more market capitalist.
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koje su više tržišni kapitalisti.
05:45
Our efforts to critique
the capitalist system, however,
the capitalist system, however,
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Naši pokušaji da kritikujemo
kapitalistički sistem su ipak
kapitalistički sistem su ipak
05:48
have tended to focus
on countries like China
on countries like China
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težili da se fokusiraju na zemlje
poput Kine
poput Kine
05:51
that are in fact
not blatantly market capitalism.
not blatantly market capitalism.
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koje nisu u tržišnom kapitalizmu.
05:55
However, there is
a real reason and real concern
a real reason and real concern
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Ipak, postoji stvarni razlog i briga
05:59
for us to now focus our attentions
on purer forms of capitalism,
on purer forms of capitalism,
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da obratimo pažnju na čistije
forme kapitalizma,
forme kapitalizma,
06:03
particularly those embodied
by the United States.
by the United States.
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posebno one otelovljene
od Sjedinjenih Država.
od Sjedinjenih Država.
06:07
This is really important
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Ovo je veoma važno,
06:09
because this type of capitalism
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jer ovaj tip kapitalizma
06:11
has increasingly
been afforded the critique
been afforded the critique
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sve više zaslužuje kritiku
06:14
that it is now fostering corruption
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da sada podstiče korupciju
06:17
and, worse still,
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i još gore,
06:18
it's increasing income inequality --
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povećava nejednakost prihoda -
06:22
the idea that the few are benefiting
at the expense of the many.
at the expense of the many.
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ideja da manjina uživa na račun većine.
06:28
The two really critical questions
that we need to address
that we need to address
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Dva kritična pitanja
kojima moramo da se pozabavimo,
kojima moramo da se pozabavimo,
06:32
is how can we fix capitalism
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su kako možemo da popravimo kapitalizam,
06:34
so that it can help create economic growth
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kako bi mogao da pomogne
ekonomskom razvoju
ekonomskom razvoju
06:37
but at the same time
can help to address social ills.
can help to address social ills.
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ali u isto vreme da pomogne
rešavanju društvenih problema.
rešavanju društvenih problema.
06:41
In order to think about that framing,
we have to ask ourselves,
we have to ask ourselves,
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Da bismo tako mislili,
moramo da se zapitamo,
moramo da se zapitamo,
06:45
how does capitalism work today?
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kako kapitalizam danas funkcioniše?
06:47
Very simplistically,
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Veoma jednostavno,
06:49
capitalism is set on the basis
of an individual utility maximizer --
of an individual utility maximizer --
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osnova kapitalizma je povećana
korisnost pojedinca -
korisnost pojedinca -
06:55
a selfish individual
who goes after what he or she wants.
who goes after what he or she wants.
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sebičnog pojedinca
koji ide za onim što želi.
koji ide za onim što želi.
07:00
And only after they've
maximized their utility
maximized their utility
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I tek nakon što su maksimalno
podmirili svoje potrebe,
podmirili svoje potrebe,
07:03
do they then decide it's important
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odluče da je bitno
07:05
to provide support
to other social contracts.
to other social contracts.
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da pruže podršku drugim
socijalnim ugovorima.
socijalnim ugovorima.
07:09
Of course, in this system
governments do tax,
governments do tax,
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Naravno, u ovom sistemu,
vlada naplaćuje porez,
vlada naplaćuje porez,
07:12
and they use part of their revenues
to fund social programs,
to fund social programs,
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kako bi iskoristila prihode
da finansira socijalne programe,
da finansira socijalne programe,
07:16
recognizing that government's role
is not just regulation
is not just regulation
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prepoznaje da uloga vlade
nije samo regulativna
nije samo regulativna
07:19
but also to be arbiter of social goods.
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već i da je arbitar socijalnih dobara.
07:23
But nevertheless,
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Ali ipak,
07:24
this framework --
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ovaj okvir,
07:26
this two-stage framework --
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ovaj okvir od dva stepena,
07:28
is the basis from which we must now start
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je osnova onoga od čega moramo da počnemo
07:30
to think about how we can
improve the capitalist model.
improve the capitalist model.
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da razmišljamo kako možemo unaprediti
kapitalizam.
kapitalizam.
07:33
I would argue that there are
two sides to this challenge.
two sides to this challenge.
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Rekla bih da postoje
dve strane ovog izazova.
dve strane ovog izazova.
07:37
First of all,
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Najpre,
07:38
we can draw on the right-wing policies
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možemo da učimo na desničarskoj politici
07:41
to see what could be beneficial for us
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da vidimo šta je delotvorno za nas
07:43
to think about how
we can improve capitalism.
we can improve capitalism.
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u razmišljanju
kako da unapredimo kapitalizam.
kako da unapredimo kapitalizam.
07:46
In particular,
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Posebno,
07:47
right-leaning policies
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desničarska politika
07:49
have tended to focus on things
like conditional transfers,
like conditional transfers,
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je pokušala da se fokusira na stvari
poput uslovljenih transfera,
poput uslovljenih transfera,
07:52
where we pay and reward people
for doing the things
for doing the things
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gde plaćamo i nagrađujemo
ljude koji rade stvari
ljude koji rade stvari
07:56
that we actually think
can help enhance economic growth.
can help enhance economic growth.
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koje mi mislimo da mogu da pomognu
u jačanju ekonomskog razvoja.
u jačanju ekonomskog razvoja.
07:59
For example,
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Na primer,
08:00
sending children to school,
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kad deca idu u školu,
08:02
parents could earn money for that,
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roditelji mogu da zarade novac za to,
08:04
or getting their children
inoculated or immunized,
inoculated or immunized,
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ili da njihovu decu
inokulišu ili vakcinišu
inokulišu ili vakcinišu
08:08
parents could get paid for doing that.
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roditelji mogu biti plaćeni za to.
08:10
Now, quite apart from the debate
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Sad, pored debate
08:12
on whether or not
we should be paying people
we should be paying people
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da li treba ili ne plaćati ljude
08:14
to do what we think they should do anyway,
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za ono što bi svejedno trebalo da rade,
08:17
the fact of the matter
is that pay for performance
is that pay for performance
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da se zaista plaća učinak
08:20
has actually yielded some positive results
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donelo je pozitivne rezultate
08:23
in places like Mexico,
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u mestima poput Meksika,
08:24
in Brazil
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u Brazilu
08:26
and also in pilot programs in New York.
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i čak u pilot programima u Njujorku.
08:29
But there are also benefits
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Takođe postoje beneficije
08:31
and significant changes underway
on left-leaning policies.
on left-leaning policies.
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i značajne promene u levičarskoj politici.
08:35
Arguments that government should
expand its role and responsibility
expand its role and responsibility
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Argumenti da vlade trebaju da prošire
ulogu i odgovornost
ulogu i odgovornost
08:40
so that it's not so narrowly defined
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da ne bude usko definisana,
08:42
and that government should be
much more of an arbiter
much more of an arbiter
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i da bi vlade trebalo da budu više arbitar
08:44
of the factors of production
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faktora proizvodnje,
08:46
have become commonplace
with the success of China.
with the success of China.
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postalo je uobičajeno kod uspeha u Kini.
08:49
But also we've started to have debates
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Takođe smo počeli da vodimo debate
08:51
about how the role of the private sector
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o tome kako uloga privatnog sektora
08:54
should move away
from just being a profit motive
from just being a profit motive
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treba da se promeri od toga
da ima motiv profita
da ima motiv profita
08:56
and really be more engaged
in the delivery of social programs.
in the delivery of social programs.
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na to da bude više uključen
u donošenje socijalnih programa.
u donošenje socijalnih programa.
09:00
Things like the corporate
social responsibility programs,
social responsibility programs,
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Stvari kao korporativni programi
socijalne odgovornosti,
socijalne odgovornosti,
09:03
albeit small in scale,
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iako, mali po obimu,
09:05
are moving in that right direction.
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kreću se u tom pozitivnom pravcu.
09:07
Of course, left-leaning policies
have also tended to blur the lines
have also tended to blur the lines
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Naravno, levičarska politika je takođe
pokušala da izbledi veze između
pokušala da izbledi veze između
09:13
between government,
NGOs and private sector.
NGOs and private sector.
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vlade, nevladinih organizacija
i privatnog sektora.
i privatnog sektora.
09:16
Two very good examples of this
are the 19th-century United States,
are the 19th-century United States,
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Dva odlična primera ovoga
su Sjedinjene Države u 19. veku,
su Sjedinjene Države u 19. veku,
09:20
when the infrastructure rollout
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kad je gradnja infrastrukture
09:22
was really about
public-private partnerships.
public-private partnerships.
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bila stvar javno-privatnih partnerstava.
09:25
More recently, of course,
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Nedavno, naravno,
09:27
the advent of the Internet
has also proven to the world
has also proven to the world
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dolazak interneta je takođe dokazao svetu
09:30
that public and private can work together
for the betterment of society.
for the betterment of society.
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da javno i privatno mogu da rade zajedno
za dobrobit društva.
za dobrobit društva.
09:36
My fundamental message to you is this:
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Moja suštinska poruka vama je ovo:
09:39
We cannot continue to try and solve
the world economic growth challenges
the world economic growth challenges
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ne možemo da rešimo svetske izazove
ekonomskog razvoja
ekonomskog razvoja
09:44
by being dogmatic
and being unnecessarily ideological.
and being unnecessarily ideological.
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tako što ćemo biti nepopustljivi
i nepotrebno ideološki.
i nepotrebno ideološki.
09:49
In order to create sustainable,
long-term economic growth
long-term economic growth
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Kako bismo stvorili održivi, dugoročni
ekonomski razvoj
ekonomski razvoj
09:53
and solve the challenges and social ills
that continue to plague the world today,
that continue to plague the world today,
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i rešili izazove i socijalne probleme
koji nastavljaju da truju svet,
koji nastavljaju da truju svet,
09:57
we're going to have to be
more broad-minded
more broad-minded
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moraćemo da budemo otvorenijeg uma
10:00
about what might work.
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u vezi s tim šta može da uspe.
10:02
Ultimately,
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Na kraju,
10:03
we have to recognize
that ideology is the enemy of growth.
that ideology is the enemy of growth.
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moramo da shvatimo da je ideologija
neprijatelj razvoja.
neprijatelj razvoja.
10:08
Thank you.
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Hvala.
10:09
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
10:15
Bruno Giussani: I want to ask
a couple of questions, Dambisa,
a couple of questions, Dambisa,
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Bruno Đuzani: Hteo bih da Vam postavim
par pitanja, Dambisa,
par pitanja, Dambisa,
10:18
because one could react
to your last sentence
to your last sentence
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jer neko bi reagovao
na vašu poslednju rečenicu
na vašu poslednju rečenicu
10:20
by saying growth is also an ideology,
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time da je razvoj takođe ideologija,
10:22
it's possibly the dominant
ideology of our times.
ideology of our times.
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moguće i dominantna
ideologija našeg vremena.
ideologija našeg vremena.
10:24
What do you say
to those who react that way?
to those who react that way?
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Šta kažete onima koji tako reaguju?
10:26
DM: Well, I think that that's
completely legitimate,
completely legitimate,
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DM: Mislim da je to potpuno legitimno,
10:29
and I think that we're already
having that discussion.
having that discussion.
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i mislim da već imamo tu diskusiju.
10:31
There's a lot of work
going on around happiness
going on around happiness
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Dosta posla se obavlja u vezi sa srećom
10:33
and other metrics being used
for measuring people's success
for measuring people's success
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i druga metrika se koristi
kako bi se izračunao uspeh ljudi
kako bi se izračunao uspeh ljudi
10:37
and improvements in living standards.
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i poboljšanja životnih standarda.
10:39
And so I think that we should be open
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Mislim da treba da budemo otvoreni
10:41
to what could deliver improvements
in people's living standards
in people's living standards
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prema tome šta može da pomogne
ljudskom životnom standardu
ljudskom životnom standardu
10:44
and continue to reduce
poverty around the world.
poverty around the world.
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i smanji siromaštvo u svetu.
10:46
BG: So you're basically pleading
for rehabilitating growth,
for rehabilitating growth,
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BĐ: Znači, bukvalno molite
za rehabilitaciju razvoja,
za rehabilitaciju razvoja,
10:49
but the only way for that happen
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ali jedini način da se to dogodi
10:51
without compromising
the capacity of the earth,
the capacity of the earth,
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bez ugrožavanja kapaciteta zemlje
10:53
to take us on a long journey,
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da nas dugo izdržava,
10:54
is for economic growth
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jeste da ekonomski razvoj
10:56
somehow to decouple
from the underlying use of resources.
from the underlying use of resources.
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nekako razdvojimo od osnovnog
korišćenja resursa.
korišćenja resursa.
10:59
Do you see that happening?
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Da li to možete da vidite?
11:00
DM: Well, I think that I'm more optimistic
about human ability and ingenuity.
about human ability and ingenuity.
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DM: Mislim da sam optimističnija
oko ljudske sposobnosti i domišljatosti.
oko ljudske sposobnosti i domišljatosti.
11:05
I think if we start to constrain ourselves
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Ako počnemo sebe da ograničavamo
11:07
using the finite, scarce
and depleting resources
and depleting resources
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koristeći ograničene,
retke i iscrpne resurse
retke i iscrpne resurse
11:10
that we know today,
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koji su nam poznati,
11:11
we could get quite negative
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postaćemo krajnje negativni
11:13
and quite concerned
about the way the world is.
about the way the world is.
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i zabrinuti o tome kakav je svet.
11:15
However, we've seen the Club of Rome,
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Ipak, videli smo u Rimskom klubu
11:17
we've seen previous claims
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prethodne tvrdnje
11:20
that the world would be
running out of resources,
running out of resources,
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da će svet ostati bez resursa,
11:22
and it's not to argue
that those things are not valid.
that those things are not valid.
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i ne radi se o tome da te stvari
nisu tačne.
nisu tačne.
11:25
But I think, with ingenuity
we could see desalination,
we could see desalination,
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Sa genijalnošću,
videli bismo desalinizaciju,
videli bismo desalinizaciju,
11:27
I think we could reinvest in energy,
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možemo da reinvestiramo u energiju,
11:29
so that we can actually
get better outcomes.
get better outcomes.
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kako bismo dobili bolje ishode.
11:31
And so in that sense,
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U tom smislu,
11:33
I'm much more optimistic
about what humans can do.
about what humans can do.
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optimističnija sam u vezi s tim
šta ljudi mogu da učine.
šta ljudi mogu da učine.
11:35
BG: The thing that strikes me
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BĐ: Ono što me zanima,
11:37
about your proposals
for rehabilitating growth
for rehabilitating growth
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o predlogu za rehabilitaciju razvoja
11:40
and taking a different direction
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i pokretu u drugom pravcu
11:42
is that you're kind of suggesting
to fix capitalism with more capitalism --
to fix capitalism with more capitalism --
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je da vi predlažete da se popravi
kapitalizam sa još više kapitalizma,
kapitalizam sa još više kapitalizma,
11:47
with putting a price tag
on good behavior as incentive
on good behavior as incentive
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da se stavi cena na dobro ponašanje
kao podsticaj
kao podsticaj
11:50
or developing a bigger role
for business in social issues.
for business in social issues.
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ili to da se da veća uloga firmama
u socijalnim problemima.
u socijalnim problemima.
11:54
Is that what you're suggesting?
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Da li to predlažete?
11:56
DM: I'm suggesting
we have to be open-minded.
we have to be open-minded.
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DM: Predlažem da široko razmišljamo.
11:58
I think it is absolutely the case
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Mislim da je zaista slučaj
12:00
that traditional models of economic growth
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to da tradicionalni modeli
ekonomskog razvoja
ekonomskog razvoja
12:03
are not working the way
we would like them to.
we would like them to.
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ne rade na način kako bismo mi želeli.
12:05
And I think it's no accident
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Mislim da nije slučajno to da
12:07
that today the largest
economy in the world, the United States,
economy in the world, the United States,
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najveća ekonomija na svetu,
Sjedinjene Države,
Sjedinjene Države,
12:11
has democracy,
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ima demokratiju,
12:12
liberal democracy,
as it's core political stance
as it's core political stance
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liberalnu demokratiju
kao srž političkog stava
kao srž političkog stava
12:15
and it has free market capitalism --
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i ima kapitalizam slobodnog tržišta
12:17
to the extent that it is free --
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do mere da je slobodno,
12:19
free market capitalism
as its economic stance.
as its economic stance.
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kapitalizam slobodnog tržišta
kao ekonomski stav.
kao ekonomski stav.
12:21
The second largest economy is China.
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Druga najveća ekonomija je Kina.
12:23
It has deprioritized democracy
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Demokratija je manjeg prioriteta
12:25
and it has state capitalism,
which is a completely different model.
which is a completely different model.
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i ima državni kapitalizam,
koji je potpuno drugačiji model.
koji je potpuno drugačiji model.
12:29
These two countries,
completely different political models
completely different political models
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Ove dve zemlje, potpuno drugačiji
politički modeli
politički modeli
12:31
and completely different economic models,
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1976
i potpuno drugačiji ekonomski modeli,
12:33
and yet they have the same
income inequality number
income inequality number
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ipak imaju isti broj nejednakosti prihoda
12:36
measured as a Gini coefficient.
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izmerenu po koeficijentu Džini.
12:37
I think those are the debates
we should have,
we should have,
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Mislim da takve debate treba da imamo,
12:39
because it's not clear at all
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jer uopšte nije jasno
12:42
what model we should be adopting,
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koji model bi trebalo da prihvatimo,
12:43
and I think there needs to be
much more discourse
much more discourse
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i mislim da treba da bude
mnogo više razgovora
mnogo više razgovora
12:46
and much more humility
about what we know and what we don't know.
about what we know and what we don't know.
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i više skromnosti u vezi s tim
šta znamo, a šta ne.
šta znamo, a šta ne.
12:49
BG: One last question.
The COP21 is going on in Paris.
The COP21 is going on in Paris.
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BĐ: Poslednje pitanje.
COP21 se održava u Parizu.
COP21 se održava u Parizu.
12:53
If you could send a tweet
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Kada biste mogli da tvitujete
12:54
to all the heads of state
and heads of delegations there,
and heads of delegations there,
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svim šefovima države i delegacije tamo,
12:57
what would you say?
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šta biste rekli?
12:59
DM: Again, I would be very much
about being open-minded.
about being open-minded.
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DM: Opet, govorila bih
o širokom razmišljanju.
o širokom razmišljanju.
13:02
As you're aware,
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Kao što ste svesni,
13:03
the issues around
the environmental concerns
the environmental concerns
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pitanja o zaštiti životne sredine,
13:05
have been on the agenda many times now --
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bila su na dnevnom redu više puta -
13:07
in Copenhagen,
'72 in Stockholm --
'72 in Stockholm --
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U Kopenhagenu, '72. u Stokholmu -
13:09
and we keep revisiting these issues
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i vraćamo se na iste probleme
13:11
partly because there is not
a fundamental agreement,
a fundamental agreement,
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delom zato što nema zajedničkog dogovora,
13:15
in fact there's a schism
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u stvari, postoji raskol
13:16
between what the developed
countries believe and want
countries believe and want
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između toga šta razvijenje zemlje
veruju i šta žele
veruju i šta žele
13:19
and what emerging market countries want.
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i šta zemlje sa razvojem tržišta žele.
13:21
Emerging market countries need
to continue to create economic growth
to continue to create economic growth
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Zemlje sa razvojem tržišta treba
da nastave da stvaraju razvoj
da nastave da stvaraju razvoj
13:25
so that we don't have political
uncertainty in the those countries.
uncertainty in the those countries.
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da ne bismo imali političku nesigurnost
u tim zemljama.
u tim zemljama.
13:28
Developed countries recognize
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Razvijene zemlje znaju
13:30
that they have a real,
important responsibility
important responsibility
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da imaju stvarnu i bitnu odgovornost
13:33
not only just to manage
their CO2 emissions
their CO2 emissions
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ne samo da održavaju emisije CO2
13:35
and some of the degradation
that they're contributing to the world,
that they're contributing to the world,
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i neke degradacije koje pridodaju svetu,
ali su vodeći u istraživanju i razvoju.
13:39
but also as trendsetters in R&D.
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13:40
And so they have to come
to the table as well.
to the table as well.
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Zato oni moraju da sednu za sto takođe.
13:43
But in essence, it cannot be a situation
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U suštini, to ne sme da bude situacija
13:45
where we start ascribing policies
to the emerging markets
to the emerging markets
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gde počnemo da pripisujemo
politiku tržištima u razvoju,
politiku tržištima u razvoju,
13:49
without developed countries themselves
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bez samih razvijenih država,
13:51
also taking quite a swipe
at what they're doing
at what they're doing
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koji uzimaju udeo
13:54
both in demand and supply
in developed markets.
in developed markets.
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u ponudi i potražnji tržišta u razvoju.
13:56
BG: Dambisa, thank you for coming to TED.
DM: Thank you very much.
DM: Thank you very much.
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BĐ: Dambisa, hvala što ste došli na TED.
DM: Hvala Vama puno.
DM: Hvala Vama puno.
14:00
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dambisa Moyo - Global economistDambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs.
Why you should listen
Dambisa Moyo's work examines the interplay between rapidly developing countries, international business, and the global economy -- while highlighting opportunities for investment. She has travelled to more than 60 countries over the past decade, studying the political, economic and financial workings of emerging economies, in particular the BRICs and the frontier economies in Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle East. Her latest book, Winner Take All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World, looks at how commodities markets influence much more than the global economy -- and examines the possible consequences of China's unprecedented rush for commodities such as oil, minerals, water, and food, including the looming specter of commodity-driven conflict.
She is the author of the brilliantly argued Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa and How the West Was Lost: Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead. Previously, she was an economist at Goldman Sachs, where she worked for nearly a decade, and was a consultant to the World Bank in Washington.
Dambisa Moyo | Speaker | TED.com