TEDGlobal 2005
Martin Rees: Is this our final century?
Martin Ris (Martin Rees): Da li je ovo naš poslednji vek?
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Govoreći kao astronom i "zabrinuti član ljudske rase", ser Martin Ris proučava našu planetu i njenu budućnost iz kosmičke perspektive. Podstiče na akciju da se spreče loše posledice našeg naučnog i tehnološkog razvoja.
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
If you take 10,000 people at random, 9,999 have something in common:
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Ako nasumično uzmete 10.000 ljudi,
9.999 imaju jednu zajedničku stvar:
9.999 imaju jednu zajedničku stvar:
00:30
their interests in business lie on or near the Earth's surface.
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njihovi poslovni interesi nalaze se
na ili blizu površine Zemlje.
na ili blizu površine Zemlje.
00:35
The odd one out is an astronomer, and I am one of that strange breed.
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Crna ovca je astronom,
a ja sam pripadnik te čudne sorte.
a ja sam pripadnik te čudne sorte.
00:39
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:40
My talk will be in two parts. I'll talk first as an astronomer,
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Moj govor sastoji se iz dva dela.
Prvo ću govoriti kao astronom,
a zatim kao zabrinuti član ljudske rase.
a zatim kao zabrinuti član ljudske rase.
00:45
and then as a worried member of the human race.
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00:49
But let's start off by remembering that Darwin showed
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Ali počnimo tako što ćemo se setiti
da je Darvin pokazao
da je Darvin pokazao
00:54
how we're the outcome of four billion years of evolution.
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kako smo mi rezultat
četiri milijarde godina evolucije.
četiri milijarde godina evolucije.
00:58
And what we try to do in astronomy and cosmology
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Ono što pokušavamo da uradimo
astronomijom i kosmologijom
astronomijom i kosmologijom
01:01
is to go back before Darwin's simple beginning,
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je da se vratimo u vreme
pre Darvinovog početka,
pre Darvinovog početka,
01:04
to set our Earth in a cosmic context.
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i smestimo Zemlju u kosmički kontekst.
01:08
And let me just run through a few slides.
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Pogledajte ovih par slajdova.
01:11
This was the impact that happened last week on a comet.
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Ovo je udar koji se desio
prošle nedelje na jednoj kometi.
prošle nedelje na jednoj kometi.
Da su poslali nuklearku,
bilo bi poprilično spektakularnije
bilo bi poprilično spektakularnije
01:16
If they'd sent a nuke, it would have been rather more spectacular
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01:18
than what actually happened last Monday.
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od onoga što se zaista desilo
prošlog ponedeljka.
prošlog ponedeljka.
01:21
So that's another project for NASA.
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Još jedan projekat za NASA.
01:23
That's Mars from the European Mars Express, and at New Year.
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To je Mars sa evropskog Mars Ekspresa.
01:28
This artist's impression turned into reality
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Mašta ovog umetnika se ostvarila
na Novu godinu
na Novu godinu
01:33
when a parachute landed on Titan, Saturn's giant moon.
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kada je padobran sleteo na Titan,
Saturnov gigantski mesec.
Saturnov gigantski mesec.
01:37
It landed on the surface. This is pictures taken on the way down.
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Sleteo je na površinu.
Ovo su slike puta na dole.
Ovo su slike puta na dole.
Ovo izgleda kao obala.
01:41
That looks like a coastline.
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01:42
It is indeed, but the ocean is liquid methane --
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Zaista jeste, ali je okean tečni metan -
01:45
the temperature minus 170 degrees centigrade.
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temperatura je minus
170 stepeni Celzijusa.
170 stepeni Celzijusa.
01:50
If we go beyond our solar system,
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Ako izađemo izvan sunčevog sistema,
01:52
we've learned that the stars aren't twinkly points of light.
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shvatamo da zvezde nisu
svetlucave tačkice svetlosti.
svetlucave tačkice svetlosti.
01:56
Each one is like a sun with a retinue of planets orbiting around it.
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Svaka je jedno sunce sa čitavom pratnjom
planeta koje oko nje orbitiraju.
planeta koje oko nje orbitiraju.
02:01
And we can see places where stars are forming,
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Možemo videti mesta gde zvezde nastaju,
kao u maglini Orao.
kao u maglini Orao.
02:04
like the Eagle Nebula. We see stars dying.
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Vidimo zvezde kako umiru.
02:07
In six billion years, the sun will look like that.
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Za šest milijardi godina
Sunce će izgledati ovako.
Sunce će izgledati ovako.
02:10
And some stars die spectacularly in a supernova explosion,
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Neke zvezde umiru spektakularno
u eksploziji supernove,
u eksploziji supernove,
02:14
leaving remnants like that.
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stvarajući ovakve ostatke.
02:16
On a still bigger scale, we see entire galaxies of stars.
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Na još većoj skali vidimo
čitave galaksije zvezda.
čitave galaksije zvezda.
02:20
We see entire ecosystems where gas is being recycled.
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Vidimo čitave ekosisteme
u kojima se reciklira gas.
u kojima se reciklira gas.
02:23
And to the cosmologist,
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A za kosmologa,
02:25
these galaxies are just the atoms, as it were, of the large-scale universe.
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ove galaksije su samo atomi, takoreći,
u univerzumu velikih razmera.
u univerzumu velikih razmera.
02:31
This picture shows a patch of sky
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Na ovoj slici je parče neba
02:34
so small that it would take about 100 patches like it
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tako malo da bi bilo potrebno
oko 100 takvih parčića
oko 100 takvih parčića
02:37
to cover the full moon in the sky.
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da se prekrije pun mesec na nebu.
02:40
Through a small telescope, this would look quite blank,
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Kroz mali teleskop,
ovo bi bilo sasvim prazno, ali se vide
stotine malih nejasnih mrlja.
stotine malih nejasnih mrlja.
02:42
but you see here hundreds of little, faint smudges.
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02:46
Each is a galaxy, fully like ours or Andromeda,
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Svaka je galaksija,
potpuno nalik našoj ili Andromedi,
potpuno nalik našoj ili Andromedi,
a izgleda tako mala i nejasna
jer je njena svetlost
jer je njena svetlost
02:50
which looks so small and faint because its light
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02:52
has taken 10 billion light-years to get to us.
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prešla 10 milijardi svetlosnih godina
da bi stigla do nas.
da bi stigla do nas.
02:56
The stars in those galaxies probably don't have planets around them.
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Zvezde tih galaksija
verovatno nemaju planete.
verovatno nemaju planete.
03:01
There's scant chance of life there -- that's because there's been no time
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Tamo su slabe šanse postojanja života,
jer nije bilo vremena
jer nije bilo vremena
03:04
for the nuclear fusion in stars to make silicon and carbon and iron,
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da nuklearna fuzija u zvezdama proizvede
silicijum i ugljenik i gvožđe,
silicijum i ugljenik i gvožđe,
03:10
the building blocks of planets and of life.
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osnovne sastojke planeta i života.
03:14
We believe that all of this emerged from a Big Bang --
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Verujemo da je sve ovo nastalo
u Velikom prasku - toplom, gustom stanju.
u Velikom prasku - toplom, gustom stanju.
03:20
a hot, dense state. So how did that amorphous Big Bang
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Pa kako je taj bezobličan Veliki prasak
postao naš svemir?
postao naš svemir?
03:24
turn into our complex cosmos?
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03:26
I'm going to show you a movie simulation
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Pokazaću vam simulaciju
03:29
16 powers of 10 faster than real time,
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10 na 16-i puta ubrzano realno vreme,
03:31
which shows a patch of the universe where the expansions have subtracted out.
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koji prikazuje parče univerzuma
gde su se ekspanzije anulirale.
gde su se ekspanzije anulirale.
03:35
But you see, as time goes on in gigayears at the bottom,
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Ali vidite, kako vreme protiče
u giga-godinama na dnu,
u giga-godinama na dnu,
03:39
you will see structures evolve as gravity feeds
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strukture evoluiraju
usled gravitacije koja se hrani
usled gravitacije koja se hrani
03:42
on small, dense irregularities, and structures develop.
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malim, gustim nepravilnostima,
i strukture se razvijaju.
i strukture se razvijaju.
03:46
And we'll end up after 13 billion years
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Nakon 13 milijardi godina dobićemo
03:48
with something looking rather like our own universe.
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nešto što veoma liči na naš univerzum.
03:55
And we compare simulated universes like that --
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Tako upoređujemo simulirane univerzume -
03:58
I'll show you a better simulation at the end of my talk --
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pokazaću vam bolju simulaciju na kraju -
04:00
with what we actually see in the sky.
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sa onime što zapravo vidimo na nebu.
04:04
Well, we can trace things back to the earlier stages of the Big Bang,
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Možemo da pratimo stvari unazad
do ranijih faza Velikog praska,
do ranijih faza Velikog praska,
04:10
but we still don't know what banged and why it banged.
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ali i dalje ne znamo
šta je puklo i zašto je puklo.
šta je puklo i zašto je puklo.
04:14
That's a challenge for 21st-century science.
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To je izazov za nauku 21. veka.
04:19
If my research group had a logo, it would be this picture here:
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Da moja istraživačka grupa
ima logo, bio bi ova slika:
ima logo, bio bi ova slika:
04:22
an ouroboros, where you see the micro-world on the left --
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uroboros, sa mikro-svetom sa leve -
04:27
the world of the quantum -- and on the right
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kvantni svet -
i desno svet velikih razmera
sa planetama, zvezdama i galaksijama.
sa planetama, zvezdama i galaksijama.
04:30
the large-scale universe of planets, stars and galaxies.
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04:35
We know our universes are united though --
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Ipak znamo da su
naši univerzumi ujedinjeni,
naši univerzumi ujedinjeni,
04:37
links between left and right.
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veze između levog i desnog.
04:39
The everyday world is determined by atoms,
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Svakodnevni svet određen je atomima,
04:41
how they stick together to make molecules.
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načinom na koji se sakupljaju
da stvore molekule.
da stvore molekule.
04:43
Stars are fueled by how the nuclei in those atoms react together.
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Zvezde se napajaju međusobnom
reakcijom jezgara ovih atoma.
reakcijom jezgara ovih atoma.
04:49
And, as we've learned in the last few years, galaxies are held together
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Kako saznajemo, galaksije se drže na okupu
04:52
by the gravitational pull of so-called dark matter:
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gravitacionom silom
takozvane tamne materije:
takozvane tamne materije:
04:55
particles in huge swarms, far smaller even than atomic nuclei.
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ogromni rojevi čestica,
mnogo manji čak i od atomskih jezgara.
mnogo manji čak i od atomskih jezgara.
05:01
But we'd like to know the synthesis symbolized at the very top.
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Želimo znati sintezu koju simboliše vrh.
05:07
The micro-world of the quantum is understood.
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Kvantni mikro-svet je shvaćen.
05:10
On the right hand side, gravity holds sway. Einstein explained that.
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Sa desne strane, prevlast ima gravitacija.
Ajnštajn je to objasnio.
Ajnštajn je to objasnio.
05:15
But the unfinished business for 21st-century science
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Ali posao koji nauka
21. veka nije završila
21. veka nije završila
05:18
is to link together cosmos and micro-world
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je povezivanje kosmosa i mikro-sveta
05:20
with a unified theory -- symbolized, as it were, gastronomically
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teorijom ujedinjenja - simbolizovanom,
takoreći, gastronomski
takoreći, gastronomski
05:24
at the top of that picture. (Laughter)
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na vrhu slike. (Smeh)
05:26
And until we have that synthesis,
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Dok ne pronađemo tu sintezu,
05:28
we won't be able to understand the very beginning of our universe
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nećemo moći da razumemo početak univerzuma
05:31
because when our universe was itself the size of an atom,
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jer kada je naš univerzum
bio veličine jednog atoma,
bio veličine jednog atoma,
05:34
quantum effects could shake everything.
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kvantni efekti bi mogli sve poljuljati.
05:37
And so we need a theory that unifies the very large and the very small,
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Tako da nam treba teorija koja
objedinjuje veoma veliko i veoma malo,
objedinjuje veoma veliko i veoma malo,
05:41
which we don't yet have.
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koju još nemamo.
05:44
One idea, incidentally --
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Jedna ideja, slučajno -
05:46
and I had this hazard sign to say I'm going to speculate from now on --
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imam ovaj znak upozorenja
da ću od sada nagađati -
da ću od sada nagađati -
05:51
is that our Big Bang was not the only one.
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je da naš Veliki prasak nije jedini.
05:53
One idea is that our three-dimensional universe
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Jedna ideja je da je ovaj
trodimenzionalni univerzum
trodimenzionalni univerzum
05:57
may be embedded in a high-dimensional space,
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usađen u višedimenzionalni prostor.
05:59
just as you can imagine on these sheets of paper.
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Kao što možete zamisliti
sa ova tri papira.
sa ova tri papira.
06:02
You can imagine ants on one of them
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Zamislite mrave na jednom od njih
06:04
thinking it's a two-dimensional universe,
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koji misle da su
u dvodimenzionalnom svetu,
u dvodimenzionalnom svetu,
06:06
not being aware of another population of ants on the other.
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nesvesni još jedne grupe
mrava na drugom.
mrava na drugom.
06:08
So there could be another universe just a millimeter away from ours,
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Znači, još jedan univerzum mogao bi
da postoji na samo milimetar od našeg,
da postoji na samo milimetar od našeg,
06:12
but we're not aware of it because that millimeter
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ali toga nismo svesni jer se taj milimetar
06:15
is measured in some fourth spatial dimension,
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meri u nekoj četvrtoj
prostornoj dimenziji,
prostornoj dimenziji,
06:17
and we're imprisoned in our three.
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a mi smo zarobljeni u svoje tri.
06:19
And so we believe that there may be a lot more to physical reality
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Tako da verujemo da u okviru
fizičke realnosti postoji dosta više
fizičke realnosti postoji dosta više
06:24
than what we've normally called our universe --
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od onoga što smo inače
nazvali našim univerzumom -
nazvali našim univerzumom -
06:26
the aftermath of our Big Bang. And here's another picture.
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posledica našeg Velikog praska.
Evo još jedne slike.
Evo još jedne slike.
06:29
Bottom right depicts our universe,
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Donja desna je naš univerzum,
06:31
which on the horizon is not beyond that,
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koji je samo tačka na ovom horizontu,
06:33
but even that is just one bubble, as it were, in some vaster reality.
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ali čak i sve ovo je samo jedan mehur,
takoreći, neke veće realnosti.
takoreći, neke veće realnosti.
06:38
Many people suspect that just as we've gone from believing
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Mnogi misle da onako
kako smo prešli sa verovanja
kako smo prešli sa verovanja
06:41
in one solar system to zillions of solar systems,
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u jedan sunčev sistem
na milijarde sunčevih sistema,
na milijarde sunčevih sistema,
06:45
one galaxy to many galaxies,
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u jednu galaksiju
na mnoštvo galaksija,
na mnoštvo galaksija,
06:47
we have to go to many Big Bangs from one Big Bang,
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moramo preći i sa jednog Velikog praska
na mnoge Velike praskove,
na mnoge Velike praskove,
06:51
perhaps these many Big Bangs displaying
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koji će nam možda prikazati
06:53
an immense variety of properties.
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ogromnu raznovrsnost osobina.
06:55
Well, let's go back to this picture.
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Vratimo se ovoj slici.
06:57
There's one challenge symbolized at the top,
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Na vrhu je simbol jednog izazova,
07:00
but there's another challenge to science symbolized at the bottom.
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ali postoji još jedan izazov nauci
čiji je simbol na dnu.
čiji je simbol na dnu.
07:04
You want to not only synthesize the very large and the very small,
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Ne želimo samo da spojimo
jako veliko i jako malo,
jako veliko i jako malo,
07:07
but we want to understand the very complex.
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želimo i da razumemo ono jako složeno.
07:10
And the most complex things are ourselves,
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A najsloženije stvari smo mi,
07:12
midway between atoms and stars.
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Na pola puta između zvezda i atoma.
07:14
We depend on stars to make the atoms we're made of.
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Zavisimo od zvezda jer stvaraju
atome od kojih smo sastavljeni.
atome od kojih smo sastavljeni.
07:16
We depend on chemistry to determine our complex structure.
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Oslanjamo se na hemiju da odredimo
svoju složenu strukturu.
svoju složenu strukturu.
07:22
We clearly have to be large, compared to atoms,
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Jasno je da moramo biti veliki
u poređenju sa atomima,
u poređenju sa atomima,
da bi imali slojeve i slojeve
složene strukture.
složene strukture.
07:25
to have layer upon layer of complex structure.
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07:27
We clearly have to be small, compared to stars and planets --
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Jasno je da moramo biti mali
u odnosu na zvezde i planete -
u odnosu na zvezde i planete -
07:30
otherwise we'd be crushed by gravity. And in fact, we are midway.
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inače bi nas gravitacija smrskala.
Zapravo, mi smo na pola puta.
07:34
It would take as many human bodies to make up the sun
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Bilo bi potrebno
onoliko ljudi za jedno sunce
onoliko ljudi za jedno sunce
07:36
as there are atoms in each of us.
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koliko atoma ima u svakom od nas.
07:38
The geometric mean of the mass of a proton
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Geometrijska sredina mase protona
07:40
and the mass of the sun is 50 kilograms,
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i mase sunca je 50 kilograma,
07:43
within a factor of two of the mass of each person here.
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a u opseg faktora dva
ovog broja upadamo svi.
ovog broja upadamo svi.
07:46
Well, most of you anyway.
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Pa, barem većina nas.
07:47
The science of complexity is probably the greatest challenge of all,
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Nauka o složenosti je verovatno
najveći izazov do sad,
najveći izazov do sad,
07:52
greater than that of the very small on the left
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veći od jako malog sa leve
07:54
and the very large on the right.
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i jako velikog sa desne strane.
07:57
And it's this science,
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Ovo je nauka,
07:59
which is not only enlightening our understanding of the biological world,
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koja ne samo što prosvetljuje
naše razumevanje biološkog sveta,
naše razumevanje biološkog sveta,
08:03
but also transforming our world faster than ever.
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već i preobražava naš svet brže nego ikad.
08:07
And more than that, it's engendering new kinds of change.
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Štaviše, izaziva nove vrste promena.
08:11
And I now move on to the second part of my talk,
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A sada nastavljam na drugi deo govora,
08:16
and the book "Our Final Century" was mentioned.
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i knjiga "Naš poslednji vek"
bila je spomenuta.
bila je spomenuta.
08:20
If I was not a self-effacing Brit, I would mention the book myself,
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Da nisam ovako skroman Britanac,
i sam bih pomenuo knjigu,
i sam bih pomenuo knjigu,
08:24
and I would add that it's available in paperback.
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i dodao bih da se štampa
i sa mekim koricama.
i sa mekim koricama.
08:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:30
And in America it was called "Our Final Hour"
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U Americi je nazvana "Naš poslednji sat"
08:33
because Americans like instant gratification.
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jer Amerikanci vole trenutno zadovoljstvo.
08:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:37
But my theme is that in this century,
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Moja poenta je da u ovom veku,
08:40
not only has science changed the world faster than ever,
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nije samo nauka izmenila svet
brže nego ikad,
brže nego ikad,
08:43
but in new and different ways.
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već i na nove i drugačije načine.
08:46
Targeted drugs, genetic modification, artificial intelligence,
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Ciljano lečenje, genetska modifikacija,
veštačka inteligencija,
veštačka inteligencija,
08:50
perhaps even implants into our brains,
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možda i implanti u mozgovima,
08:52
may change human beings themselves. And human beings,
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mogu promeniti ljudska bića kao takva.
A ljudska bića,
08:55
their physique and character, has not changed for thousands of years.
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njihov izgled i karakter,
nije se promenio hiljadama godina.
nije se promenio hiljadama godina.
08:59
It may change this century.
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Može se promeniti u ovom veku.
09:01
It's new in our history.
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Ovo je novost za našu istoriju.
09:03
And the human impact on the global environment -- greenhouse warming,
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A i ljudski uticaj na globalnu okolinu -
efekat staklene bašte,
efekat staklene bašte,
09:06
mass extinctions and so forth -- is unprecedented, too.
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masivna izumiranja i tako dalje -
nikad nije bio veći.
nikad nije bio veći.
09:10
And so, this makes this coming century a challenge.
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Zbog ovoga je predstojeći vek izazov.
09:15
Bio- and cybertechnologies are environmentally benign
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Bio i sajber tehnologije
su benigne za okolinu,
su benigne za okolinu,
samim tim što nude
fantastične izglede za budućnost,
fantastične izglede za budućnost,
09:18
in that they offer marvelous prospects,
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09:20
while, nonetheless, reducing pressure on energy and resources.
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dok, u isto vreme, smanjuju
pritisak na energiju i resurse.
pritisak na energiju i resurse.
09:24
But they will have a dark side.
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Ali imaće i tamnu stranu.
09:27
In our interconnected world, novel technology could empower
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U ovom povezanom svetu,
nove tehnologije mogu osposobiti
nove tehnologije mogu osposobiti
09:31
just one fanatic,
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samo jednog fanatika,
09:33
or some weirdo with a mindset of those who now design computer viruses,
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ili nekog čudaka sa mentalitetom
onih koji danas prave kompjuterske viruse,
onih koji danas prave kompjuterske viruse,
09:37
to trigger some kind on disaster.
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koji će izazvati katastrofu.
09:39
Indeed, catastrophe could arise simply from technical misadventure --
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Zaista, katastrofa može proizići
iz proste tehničke greške -
iz proste tehničke greške -
09:43
error rather than terror.
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neopreznost, a ne opasnost.
09:45
And even a tiny probability of catastrophe is unacceptable
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Čak ni mala verovatnoća
katastrofe nije prihvatljiva
katastrofe nije prihvatljiva
09:50
when the downside could be of global consequence.
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kada bi posledice bile globalne.
09:55
In fact, some years ago, Bill Joy wrote an article
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Zapravo, pre par godina,
Bil Džoj je napisao članak
Bil Džoj je napisao članak
09:59
expressing tremendous concern about robots taking us over, etc.
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u kom izražava ogromnu brigu
da će nas roboti nadvladati, itd.
da će nas roboti nadvladati, itd.
10:03
I don't go along with all that,
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Ne slažem se sa time,
10:04
but it's interesting that he had a simple solution.
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ali je interesantno
njegovo jednostavno rešenje.
njegovo jednostavno rešenje.
10:06
It was what he called "fine-grained relinquishment."
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Zvao ga je "sitno odricanje".
10:09
He wanted to give up the dangerous kind of science
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Hteo je da se odrekne opasne nauke
i da zadrži dobre delove.
i da zadrži dobre delove.
10:12
and keep the good bits. Now, that's absurdly naive for two reasons.
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To je potpuno naivno iz dva razloga.
10:16
First, any scientific discovery has benign consequences
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Kao prvo, svako naučno otkriće
ima bezopasne posledice
ima bezopasne posledice
10:20
as well as dangerous ones.
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isto kao i opasne.
10:22
And also, when a scientist makes a discovery,
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Takođe, kada naučnik nešto otkrije,
10:25
he or she normally has no clue what the applications are going to be.
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uglavnom nema pojma
koju će to primenu imati.
koju će to primenu imati.
10:29
And so what this means is that we have to accept the risks
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To znači da moramo da prihvatimo rizike
10:34
if we are going to enjoy the benefits of science.
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ako ćemo da uživamo u povlasticama nauke.
10:38
We have to accept that there will be hazards.
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Moramo prihvatiti opasnosti.
10:41
And I think we have to go back to what happened in the post-War era,
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Mislim da se moramo vratiti
u posleratno doba,
u posleratno doba,
10:47
post-World War II, when the nuclear scientists
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posle Drugog svetskog rata,
kada su nuklearni naučnici
kada su nuklearni naučnici
10:50
who'd been involved in making the atomic bomb,
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koji su radili na atomskoj bombi,
10:52
in many cases were concerned that they should do all they could
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uglavnom bili zabrinuti
kako će upozoriti svet na ove opasnosti.
10:56
to alert the world to the dangers.
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10:58
And they were inspired not by the young Einstein,
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A nije ih inspirisao mladi Ajnštajn,
11:02
who did the great work in relativity, but by the old Einstein,
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koji je radio odličan posao
s relativitetom, već stari Ajnštajn,
s relativitetom, već stari Ajnštajn,
11:07
the icon of poster and t-shirt,
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legenda na posterima i majicama,
11:10
who failed in his scientific efforts to unify the physical laws.
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koji u svojim naučnim naporima nije uspeo
da ujedini fizičke zakone.
da ujedini fizičke zakone.
11:14
He was premature. But he was a moral compass --
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Pojavio se prevremeno.
Ali bio je moralni kompas -
11:17
an inspiration to scientists who were concerned with arms control.
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inspiracija naučnicima
koji su se bavili kontrolom oružja.
koji su se bavili kontrolom oružja.
11:22
And perhaps the greatest living person
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A možda najveći čovek
11:24
is someone I'm privileged to know, Joe Rothblatt.
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je neko koga imam privilegiju da poznajem,
Džo Rotblat.
Džo Rotblat.
11:27
Equally untidy office there, as you can see.
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Podjednako neuredna kancelarija,
kako vidite.
kako vidite.
11:30
He's 96 years old, and he founded the Pugwash movement.
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Ima 96 godina i osnovao je pokret Pagvoš.
Poslednja stvar koju je uradio
bila je da ubedi Ajnštajna
bila je da ubedi Ajnštajna
11:34
He persuaded Einstein, as his last act,
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11:36
to sign the famous memorandum of Bertrand Russell.
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da potpiše čuveni
memorandum Bertranda Rasela.
memorandum Bertranda Rasela.
11:39
And he sets an example of the concerned scientist.
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On postavlja primer zabrinutog naučnika.
11:44
And I think to harness science optimally,
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Mislim, da bi se nauka
optimalno iskoristila,
optimalno iskoristila,
11:47
to choose which doors to open and which to leave closed,
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da bi se odlučilo koja vrata otvoriti
a koja ostaviti zatvorena,
a koja ostaviti zatvorena,
11:50
we need latter-day counterparts of people like Joseph Rothblatt.
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danas su nam potrebni
ljudi kao Džozef Rotblat.
ljudi kao Džozef Rotblat.
Ne trebaju nam samo fizičari
koji vode kampanje,
koji vode kampanje,
11:55
We need not just campaigning physicists,
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11:57
but we need biologists, computer experts
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trebaju nam biolozi,
kompjuterski stručnjaci,
kompjuterski stručnjaci,
11:59
and environmentalists as well.
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i oni koji se bave zaštitom sredine.
12:02
And I think academics and independent entrepreneurs
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Mislim da akademici i preduzetnici
imaju posebnu obavezu
jer imaju više slobode
jer imaju više slobode
12:05
have a special obligation because they have more freedom
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12:07
than those in government service,
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od onih pod državnom vlašću,
12:09
or company employees subject to commercial pressure.
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ili zaposlenih koji su
pod pritiskom trgovine.
pod pritiskom trgovine.
12:12
I wrote my book, "Our Final Century," as a scientist,
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Napisao sam knjigu
"Naš poslednji vek" kao naučnik,
"Naš poslednji vek" kao naučnik,
samo opšti naučnik.
12:17
just a general scientist. But there's one respect, I think,
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Ali s jedne strane, mislim,
12:20
in which being a cosmologist offered a special perspective,
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da mi je kosmlogija pružila
posebnu perspektivu,
posebnu perspektivu,
12:24
and that's that it offers an awareness of the immense future.
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koja omogućava svest
o neizmernoj budućnosti.
o neizmernoj budućnosti.
12:28
The stupendous time spans of the evolutionary past
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Ogromni vremenski periodi
evolutivne prošlosti
evolutivne prošlosti
12:31
are now part of common culture --
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danas su deo kulture -
12:34
outside the American Bible Belt, anyway --
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izvan američkog Biblijskog pojasa,
u svakom slučaju -
u svakom slučaju -
12:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:38
but most people, even those who are familiar with evolution,
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ali većina ljudi, čak i oni
upoznati sa evolucijom,
upoznati sa evolucijom,
12:42
aren't mindful that even more time lies ahead.
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nemaju na umu da još više
vremena leži ispred nas.
vremena leži ispred nas.
12:46
The sun has been shining for four and a half billion years,
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Sunce sija već četiri i po
milijarde godina,
milijarde godina,
12:49
but it'll be another six billion years before its fuel runs out.
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ali će sijati još šest milijardi
pre nego što se ugasi.
pre nego što se ugasi.
12:53
On that schematic picture, a sort of time-lapse picture, we're halfway.
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Na ovoj šematskoj slici, vrsti
vremenske slike, mi smo na pola puta.
vremenske slike, mi smo na pola puta.
12:59
And it'll be another six billion before that happens,
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I biće još šest milijardi
pre nego što se to desi,
pre nego što se to desi,
13:04
and any remaining life on Earth is vaporized.
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i sav život na Zemlji nestane.
13:09
There's an unthinking tendency to imagine that humans will be there,
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Postoji nepromišljena sklonost
ka zamisli da će ljudi biti tamo,
ka zamisli da će ljudi biti tamo,
13:12
experiencing the sun's demise,
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doživljavajući propast sunca,
13:14
but any life and intelligence that exists then
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ali život i inteligencija
koji budu postojali tada
koji budu postojali tada
13:17
will be as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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biće drugačiji od nas isto koliko
smo mi drugačiji od bakterija.
smo mi drugačiji od bakterija.
13:21
The unfolding of intelligence and complexity
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Razvoj inteligencije i kompleksnosti
13:23
still has immensely far to go, here on Earth and probably far beyond.
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ima još ogroman put da pređe,
na Zemlji i verovatno negde daleko.
na Zemlji i verovatno negde daleko.
13:29
So we are still at the beginning of the emergence of complexity
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Tako da smo i dalje
na početku pojave složenosti
na početku pojave složenosti
13:32
in our Earth and beyond.
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na Zemlji i izvan nje.
13:35
If you represent the Earth's lifetime by a single year,
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Kada bi predstavio život
zemlje jednom godinom,
zemlje jednom godinom,
13:39
say from January when it was made to December,
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gde je januar njen nastanak
a decembar kraj,
a decembar kraj,
13:42
the 21st-century would be a quarter of a second in June --
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21. vek bio bi četvrtina sekunde u junu -
13:48
a tiny fraction of the year.
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maleni komad godine.
13:51
But even in this concertinaed cosmic perspective,
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Čak i iz ove sažete kosmičke perspektive,
13:55
our century is very, very special,
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naš vek je jako, jako poseban,
13:58
the first when humans can change themselves and their home planet.
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vreme kada ljudi menjaju
sebe i svoju planetu.
sebe i svoju planetu.
14:03
As I should have shown this earlier,
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Kako sam ovo ranije trebao prikazati,
14:06
it will not be humans who witness the end point of the sun;
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neće ljudi biti ti koji će gledati
poslednje trenutke sunca;
poslednje trenutke sunca;
14:09
it will be creatures as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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biće to stvorenja drugačija
od nas koliko mi od bakterija.
od nas koliko mi od bakterija.
14:14
When Einstein died in 1955,
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Kada je Ajnštajn umro 1955,
jedno upečatljivo priznanje njegovom
svetskom statusu bio je crtež
svetskom statusu bio je crtež
14:17
one striking tribute to his global status was this cartoon
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14:20
by Herblock in the Washington Post.
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u Vašington Postu koji je crtao Herblok.
14:22
The plaque reads, "Albert Einstein lived here."
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Na pločici piše,
"Albert Ajnštajn je živeo ovde."
"Albert Ajnštajn je živeo ovde."
14:26
And I'd like to end with a vignette, as it were, inspired by this image.
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Želim da završim sa dodatkom,
takoreći, inspirisanim ovom slikom.
takoreći, inspirisanim ovom slikom.
14:30
We've been familiar for 40 years with this image:
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Već 40 godina nam je poznata ova slika:
14:36
the fragile beauty of land, ocean and clouds,
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nežna lepota zemlje, mora i oblaka,
14:39
contrasted with the sterile moonscape
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u kontrastu sa neplodnom površinom meseca
14:41
on which the astronauts left their footprints.
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na kojoj su astronauti ostavili otiske.
14:45
But let's suppose some aliens had been watching our pale blue dot
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Pretpostavimo da su neki vanzemaljci
posmatrali našu bledu plavu tačku
posmatrali našu bledu plavu tačku
14:49
in the cosmos from afar, not just for 40 years,
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iz dalekog kosmosa, i ne samo 40 godina,
14:53
but for the entire 4.5 billion-year history of our Earth.
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već celih 4,5 milijardi godina
zemaljske istorije.
zemaljske istorije.
14:58
What would they have seen?
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Šta bi videli?
15:00
Over nearly all that immense time,
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Za sve to ogromno vreme,
15:02
Earth's appearance would have changed very gradually.
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Zemljin izgled bi se menjao
jako postepeno.
jako postepeno.
15:05
The only abrupt worldwide change
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Jedine nagle svetske promene
15:07
would have been major asteroid impacts or volcanic super-eruptions.
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bile bi udari velikih asteroida
ili ogromne vulkanske erupcije.
ili ogromne vulkanske erupcije.
15:13
Apart from those brief traumas, nothing happens suddenly.
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Osim ovih kratkih povreda,
ništa se ne dešava iznenada.
ništa se ne dešava iznenada.
15:17
The continental landmasses drifted around.
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Kontinentalne ploče su plovile unaokolo.
15:20
Ice cover waxed and waned.
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Ledeni pokrivač je rastao i smanjivao se.
15:22
Successions of new species emerged, evolved and became extinct.
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Generacije novih vrsta su se pojavljivale,
evoluirale i izumirale.
evoluirale i izumirale.
15:26
But in just a tiny sliver of the Earth's history,
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Ali samo u jednom majušnom
odsečku zemaljske istorije,
odsečku zemaljske istorije,
15:30
the last one-millionth part, a few thousand years,
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poslednjem milionitom delu,
par hiljada godina,
par hiljada godina,
15:34
the patterns of vegetation altered much faster than before.
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obrasci vegetacije promenili su se
brže nego ranije.
brže nego ranije.
15:37
This signaled the start of agriculture.
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Ovo je označilo početak poljoprivrede.
15:40
Change has accelerated as human populations rose.
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Promena se ubrzavala
kako su ljudske populacije rasle.
kako su ljudske populacije rasle.
Onda su se druge stvari desile
još iznenadnije.
još iznenadnije.
15:44
Then other things happened even more abruptly.
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15:46
Within just 50 years --
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Za samo 50 godina -
15:48
that's one hundredth of one millionth of the Earth's age --
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to je stotina milionitog
dela Zemljine starosti -
dela Zemljine starosti -
15:52
the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to rise,
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količina ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi
počela je da raste,
počela je da raste,
15:56
and ominously fast.
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zastrašujućom brzinom.
Planeta je postala ozbiljan
odašiljač radio talasa -
odašiljač radio talasa -
15:58
The planet became an intense emitter of radio waves --
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16:00
the total output from all TV and cell phones
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sve od televizora preko mobilnih telefona
do radara.
do radara.
16:04
and radar transmissions. And something else happened.
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Još nešto se desilo.
16:07
Metallic objects -- albeit very small ones, a few tons at most --
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Metalni predmeti,
iako mali, najviše nekoliko tona -
iako mali, najviše nekoliko tona -
16:12
escaped into orbit around the Earth.
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pojavili su se u Zemljinoj orbiti.
16:15
Some journeyed to the moons and planets.
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Neki su putovali do meseca i planeta.
16:17
A race of advanced extraterrestrials
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Rasa naprednih vanzemaljaca
16:19
watching our solar system from afar
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koji gledaju sunčev sistem izdaleka
16:22
could confidently predict Earth's final doom in another six billion years.
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sigurno bi mogli predvideti
Zemljino uništenje za 6 milijardi godina.
Zemljino uništenje za 6 milijardi godina.
16:27
But could they have predicted this unprecedented spike
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A da li bi mogli predvideti
ovaj jedinstveni porast
ovaj jedinstveni porast
16:31
less than halfway through the Earth's life?
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na manje od polovine Zemljinog života?
16:34
These human-induced alterations
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Ove promene izazvane čovekom
16:36
occupying overall less than a millionth of the elapsed lifetime
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koje zauzimaju manje od milionitog dela
vremena koje je do sad prošlo
vremena koje je do sad prošlo
16:40
and seemingly occurring with runaway speed?
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i naizgled se dešavaju
neverovatnom brzinom?
neverovatnom brzinom?
16:43
If they continued their vigil,
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Kada bi nastavili posmatranje,
16:45
what might these hypothetical aliens witness
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šta bi ovi hipotetički
vanzemaljci doživeli
vanzemaljci doživeli
16:47
in the next hundred years?
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u sledećih sto godina?
16:50
Will some spasm foreclose Earth's future?
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Da li će neki grč uništiti
Zemljinu budućnost?
Zemljinu budućnost?
16:53
Or will the biosphere stabilize?
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Ili će se biosfera stabilizovati?
16:56
Or will some of the metallic objects launched from the Earth
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Ili će neki od metalnih predmeta
lansiranih sa Zemlje
lansiranih sa Zemlje
16:59
spawn new oases, a post-human life elsewhere?
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stvoriti nove oaze,
post-ljudski život negde daleko?
post-ljudski život negde daleko?
17:03
The science done by the young Einstein will continue
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Nauka kojom se bavio
mladi Ajnštajn nastaviće
mladi Ajnštajn nastaviće
17:06
as long as our civilization, but for civilization to survive,
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da živi u našoj civilizaciji,
ali da bi civilizacija preživela
ali da bi civilizacija preživela
17:11
we'll need the wisdom of the old Einstein --
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trebaće nam mudrost starog Ajnštajna -
17:13
humane, global and farseeing.
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humanog, sveobuhvatnog i dalekovidog.
17:15
And whatever happens in this uniquely crucial century
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Šta god da se desi u ovom
jedinstveno presudnom veku,
jedinstveno presudnom veku,
17:20
will resonate into the remote future and perhaps far beyond the Earth,
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odjekivaće u budućnost,
možda i van Zemlje,
možda i van Zemlje,
daleko van Zemlje
kao što je ovde prikazano.
kao što je ovde prikazano.
17:26
far beyond the Earth as depicted here.
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17:28
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
(Aplauz)
17:30
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com