TEDGlobal 2005
Martin Rees: Is this our final century?
馬丁．芮斯 問: 這是人類的末世紀嗎?
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身為天文學家和關心人類社會的一份子, 馬丁．芮斯爵士以宇宙全景的角度出發，來審視我們的星球及其未來。並大力促請我們應採取行動，以避免因科技發展所可能帶來的毀滅性後果。
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
If you take 10,000 people at random, 9,999 have something in common:
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如果隨機挑選出 10,000 人, 其中 9,999人都會有一個共通點：
00:30
their interests in business lie on or near the Earth's surface.
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他們所關心的事情都位在地表，或是接近地表的地方。
00:35
The odd one out is an astronomer, and I am one of that strange breed.
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剩下來那一個是天文學家，而我就是那種怪咖。
00:39
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:40
My talk will be in two parts. I'll talk first as an astronomer,
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我的演講分為兩個部份。首先我會從天文學家的角度談起,
00:45
and then as a worried member of the human race.
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接著再從憂心於人類社會的一份子來討論。
00:49
But let's start off by remembering that Darwin showed
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讓我們先來回顧達爾文的主張：
00:54
how we're the outcome of four billion years of evolution.
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人類是經過四十億年演化後的產物。
00:58
And what we try to do in astronomy and cosmology
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而天文學和宇宙學所嚐試的，
01:01
is to go back before Darwin's simple beginning,
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是回歸到達爾文的理論原點，
01:04
to set our Earth in a cosmic context.
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將宇宙設定爲地球的背景。
01:08
And let me just run through a few slides.
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我來播放幾張投影片。
01:11
This was the impact that happened last week on a comet.
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這是上星期發生在某顆彗星表面的撞擊。
01:16
If they'd sent a nuke, it would have been rather more spectacular
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如果他們發射的是核子武器的話，效果應該會比上週一發生的
01:18
than what actually happened last Monday.
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這個景象更加壯觀得多。
01:21
So that's another project for NASA.
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那是 NASA 的另一項計劃。
01:23
That's Mars from the European Mars Express, and at New Year.
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這張則是新年時由歐洲太空總署的火星快車號拍攝到的火星。
01:28
This artist's impression turned into reality
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這是一架著陸裝置登陸土星巨大的衛星泰坦星（土衛六）時的景象，
01:33
when a parachute landed on Titan, Saturn's giant moon.
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就宛如藝術家的創作轉為了實景。
01:37
It landed on the surface. This is pictures taken on the way down.
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它登陸在泰坦星（土衛六）的表面。這張圖片是在降落途中拍攝的。
01:41
That looks like a coastline.
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這看起來像一條海岸線。
01:42
It is indeed, but the ocean is liquid methane --
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它也的確是，只不過這片海洋是液態甲烷 --
01:45
the temperature minus 170 degrees centigrade.
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溫度是攝氏零下 170 度。
01:50
If we go beyond our solar system,
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如果放眼到太陽系之外的話，
01:52
we've learned that the stars aren't twinkly points of light.
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我們已經都知道星星並不是閃爍的光點。
01:56
Each one is like a sun with a retinue of planets orbiting around it.
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每一顆恆星都像太陽一樣，有若干行星環繞著它運行。
02:01
And we can see places where stars are forming,
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我們也可以看到恆星形成的位置，
02:04
like the Eagle Nebula. We see stars dying.
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如鷹星雲。我們也看到正在衰竭的恆星。
02:07
In six billion years, the sun will look like that.
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六十億年後, 太陽就會變成這樣。
02:10
And some stars die spectacularly in a supernova explosion,
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有些恆星在超新星爆炸中壯麗的毀滅，
02:14
leaving remnants like that.
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剩下這樣的殘餘。
02:16
On a still bigger scale, we see entire galaxies of stars.
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比例再放大一些, 我們可以看見由恆星組成的所有星系。
02:20
We see entire ecosystems where gas is being recycled.
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我們看到整個生態系統裡的氣體被回收利用。
02:23
And to the cosmologist,
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對宇宙學家而言，
02:25
these galaxies are just the atoms, as it were, of the large-scale universe.
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這些星系都只不過是構成大規模宇宙空間的原子罷了。
02:31
This picture shows a patch of sky
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這照片顯示了一小片天空
02:34
so small that it would take about 100 patches like it
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小到大概需要用上 100 張同樣尺寸的片段拼接
02:37
to cover the full moon in the sky.
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才足以遮蔽天上的滿月。
02:40
Through a small telescope, this would look quite blank,
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用小型望遠鏡去看的話，這個區域會顯得空無一物，
02:42
but you see here hundreds of little, faint smudges.
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但現在你們可以看見數百個小小的模糊斑點。
02:46
Each is a galaxy, fully like ours or Andromeda,
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每一個斑點都是一個星系，正如我們的太陽系或仙女座星系，
02:50
which looks so small and faint because its light
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看起來之所以微小又模糊, 是因為它的光線
02:52
has taken 10 billion light-years to get to us.
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得經過一百億光年以上才能抵達地球。
02:56
The stars in those galaxies probably don't have planets around them.
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這些星系中的恆星未必有行星圍繞著。
03:01
There's scant chance of life there -- that's because there's been no time
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有生命存在的機會甚微 -- 那是因為缺乏時間
03:04
for the nuclear fusion in stars to make silicon and carbon and iron,
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讓恆星足以進行核聚變，以製造構成行星和生命所必需的
03:10
the building blocks of planets and of life.
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矽和碳和鐵等要素。
03:14
We believe that all of this emerged from a Big Bang --
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我們相信這一切都源自於一次大爆炸 --
03:20
a hot, dense state. So how did that amorphous Big Bang
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一個灼熱, 濃密的狀態。而這個無定形的大爆炸又是如何
03:24
turn into our complex cosmos?
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演變出我們複雜的宇宙呢？
03:26
I'm going to show you a movie simulation
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我會播放一段模擬電影
03:29
16 powers of 10 faster than real time,
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影片播放的速度是實際時間的 10 的16 次方倍速，
03:31
which shows a patch of the universe where the expansions have subtracted out.
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影片中將演示宇宙的一小部份其膨脹的歷程。
03:35
But you see, as time goes on in gigayears at the bottom,
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大家可以看到，當底部顯示時間以十億年爲單位進行時，
03:39
you will see structures evolve as gravity feeds
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空間物質結構會隨著引力作用於細小、密集的不規則狀物而演化，
03:42
on small, dense irregularities, and structures develop.
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並加以發展。
03:46
And we'll end up after 13 billion years
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在經歷130億年之後，
03:48
with something looking rather like our own universe.
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就會出現與我們生存的宇宙相似的結構。
03:55
And we compare simulated universes like that --
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而我們將模擬得出的宇宙進行比較 --
03:58
I'll show you a better simulation at the end of my talk --
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在演說結束前我會向各位展示一個更好的模擬結構 --
04:00
with what we actually see in the sky.
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用我們實際看到的天空做示範。
04:04
Well, we can trace things back to the earlier stages of the Big Bang,
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好吧，我們可以追溯到大爆炸早期的階段，
04:10
but we still don't know what banged and why it banged.
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但我們仍然無從得知發生爆炸的主體和原因。
04:14
That's a challenge for 21st-century science.
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那是21世紀科學所面臨的一個挑戰。
04:19
If my research group had a logo, it would be this picture here:
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如果我的研究小組要選一個標誌的話，那應該就是這個圖片了：
04:22
an ouroboros, where you see the micro-world on the left --
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一條銜尾蛇, 在左邊你可看到微觀世界 --
04:27
the world of the quantum -- and on the right
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量子的世界 - 在右邊
04:30
the large-scale universe of planets, stars and galaxies.
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則是布滿行星, 恆星和星系的宏觀宇宙。
04:35
We know our universes are united though --
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我們都知道宇宙萬物實際上是一個整體的組合 --
04:37
links between left and right.
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由圖片的左邊連結到右邊。
04:39
The everyday world is determined by atoms,
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日常世界取決於原子，
04:41
how they stick together to make molecules.
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亦即他們互相結合以組成分子的方式。
04:43
Stars are fueled by how the nuclei in those atoms react together.
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恆星是透過這些原子核的交互反應以取得燃料。
04:49
And, as we've learned in the last few years, galaxies are held together
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近年來我們也了解到，星系是由所謂暗物質
04:52
by the gravitational pull of so-called dark matter:
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的引力作用而連結在一起：
04:55
particles in huge swarms, far smaller even than atomic nuclei.
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暗物質是指大量群集的粒子，遠比原子核更加微小。
05:01
But we'd like to know the synthesis symbolized at the very top.
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但我們想了解的是圖片頂端的結合體（蛇吞尾）所象徵的意義。
05:07
The micro-world of the quantum is understood.
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量子的微觀世界已被理解。
05:10
On the right hand side, gravity holds sway. Einstein explained that.
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在圖片右邊的宏觀世界中，萬有引力主宰一切。愛因斯坦已經闡明這一點。
05:15
But the unfinished business for 21st-century science
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但 21 世紀科學的未竟的任務
05:18
is to link together cosmos and micro-world
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則是將宏觀與微觀的世界用一個
05:20
with a unified theory -- symbolized, as it were, gastronomically
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統一理論加以聯繫 -- 就如圖片頂端
05:24
at the top of that picture. (Laughter)
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從美食的角度來加以闡釋的象徵。（笑聲）
05:26
And until we have that synthesis,
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在我們找到那樣的結合體（統一理論）之前,
05:28
we won't be able to understand the very beginning of our universe
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我們無從理解宇宙太初的情形，
05:31
because when our universe was itself the size of an atom,
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因為當宇宙的尺吋等同一個原子的大小時，
05:34
quantum effects could shake everything.
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量子效應可以撼動一切。
05:37
And so we need a theory that unifies the very large and the very small,
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因此我們需要一個能將極大與極小統一起來的理論，
05:41
which we don't yet have.
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這點目前我們還沒能做到。
05:44
One idea, incidentally --
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順道提一下，有個想法 --
05:46
and I had this hazard sign to say I'm going to speculate from now on --
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而我用這個警示標誌來說明，接下來的部份僅是我的推測 --
05:51
is that our Big Bang was not the only one.
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-- 也就是我們最初的大爆炸並非唯一的一個。
05:53
One idea is that our three-dimensional universe
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有一種發想是，我們的三維宇宙
05:57
may be embedded in a high-dimensional space,
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可能是鑲嵌在一個更高維度的空間之內，
05:59
just as you can imagine on these sheets of paper.
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就好比這幾張紙，
06:02
You can imagine ants on one of them
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各位可以想像一下，在其中一張紙上的螞蟻
06:04
thinking it's a two-dimensional universe,
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認為這張紙就是一個二維宇宙，
06:06
not being aware of another population of ants on the other.
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卻無從察覺其它紙張上還有別的螞蟻存在。
06:08
So there could be another universe just a millimeter away from ours,
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因此也可能有另一個宇宙，就存在於距離我們一公釐之外，
06:12
but we're not aware of it because that millimeter
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但我們卻無從察覺它的存在，因為那一公釐的距離
06:15
is measured in some fourth spatial dimension,
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是由某個四維空間的度量值所界定，
06:17
and we're imprisoned in our three.
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而我們卻被禁錮在我們的三維空間裡。
06:19
And so we believe that there may be a lot more to physical reality
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也因此我們相信可能有更多物理現實
06:24
than what we've normally called our universe --
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存在於我們通常稱之為宇宙 -- 也就是大爆炸產物
06:26
the aftermath of our Big Bang. And here's another picture.
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-- 的範疇之外。這是另一張圖片。
06:29
Bottom right depicts our universe,
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右下角所描繪的是我們的宇宙，
06:31
which on the horizon is not beyond that,
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位在水平線的邊緣上，
06:33
but even that is just one bubble, as it were, in some vaster reality.
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不過就是遼闊的實相裡的一個泡沫罷了。
06:38
Many people suspect that just as we've gone from believing
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很多人懷疑，隨著我們開始相信
06:41
in one solar system to zillions of solar systems,
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不只一個太陽系，而是有不計其數的太陽系存在，
06:45
one galaxy to many galaxies,
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不只一個星系，而是有許多星系，
06:47
we have to go to many Big Bangs from one Big Bang,
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我們也必須考慮可能不只有一次大爆炸，而是有很多次大爆炸。
06:51
perhaps these many Big Bangs displaying
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也許這些大爆炸顯示出
06:53
an immense variety of properties.
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一種極其多樣的屬性。
06:55
Well, let's go back to this picture.
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就讓我們回頭來看這張圖片。
06:57
There's one challenge symbolized at the top,
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在這個圖案頂端有一個符號化了的科學挑戰，
07:00
but there's another challenge to science symbolized at the bottom.
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但在底部同樣有一個符號化了的科學挑戰。
07:04
You want to not only synthesize the very large and the very small,
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除了追求統合極大與極小兩端的理論之外，
07:07
but we want to understand the very complex.
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我們還想了解最複雜的部份。
07:10
And the most complex things are ourselves,
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而最複雜的事物無非是
07:12
midway between atoms and stars.
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介於原子與恆星之間的我們自己本身。
07:14
We depend on stars to make the atoms we're made of.
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我們倚賴恆星來製造構成我們實體的原子成份。
07:16
We depend on chemistry to determine our complex structure.
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我們倚賴化學作用來決定我們的複雜結構。
07:22
We clearly have to be large, compared to atoms,
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相較於原子，我們顯然是龐大得多，
07:25
to have layer upon layer of complex structure.
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以便承載層層疊疊的複雜結構。
07:27
We clearly have to be small, compared to stars and planets --
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相較於恆星與行星，我們又顯然渺小得多 --
07:30
otherwise we'd be crushed by gravity. And in fact, we are midway.
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否則我們會因引力作用而被壓碎。而事實上，我們介於兩者之間。
07:34
It would take as many human bodies to make up the sun
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要用相當於構成我們每個人體內的原子數的人數
07:36
as there are atoms in each of us.
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才能達到構成太陽的質量。
07:38
The geometric mean of the mass of a proton
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質子質量和太陽質量的幾何平均數
07:40
and the mass of the sun is 50 kilograms,
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爲 50 公斤，
07:43
within a factor of two of the mass of each person here.
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約小於在座各位質量的一半。
07:46
Well, most of you anyway.
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嗯，至少是在座大多數人。
07:47
The science of complexity is probably the greatest challenge of all,
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最具挑戰性的，可能就是研究人的複雜性科學，
07:52
greater than that of the very small on the left
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相較於左邊的微觀世界，
07:54
and the very large on the right.
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和右邊的宏觀世界。
07:57
And it's this science,
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而這正是這樣的科學研究，
07:59
which is not only enlightening our understanding of the biological world,
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不僅啟迪了我們對於生物世界的了解，
08:03
but also transforming our world faster than ever.
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並且以前所未有的速度推動著世界的改變。
08:07
And more than that, it's engendering new kinds of change.
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尤有甚者，更引發了全新的變化產生。
08:11
And I now move on to the second part of my talk,
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接下來我將進入演講的第二個部份，
08:16
and the book "Our Final Century" was mentioned.
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之前已經有人提到了《人類的末世紀》這本書。
08:20
If I was not a self-effacing Brit, I would mention the book myself,
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若非身為一個謙遜低調的英國人。我就會自己提及那書，
08:24
and I would add that it's available in paperback.
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而且我還會補充說明，那本書也有發行平裝版。
08:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:30
And in America it was called "Our Final Hour"
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在美國這本書叫作《人類的最後一小時》（人類的最後關頭）
08:33
because Americans like instant gratification.
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因為美國人偏好即時滿足。
08:35
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:37
But my theme is that in this century,
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但我的主題是在本世紀，
08:40
not only has science changed the world faster than ever,
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科學不僅是以前所未有的速度改變世界，
08:43
but in new and different ways.
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其方式更是嶄新且不同於以往。
08:46
Targeted drugs, genetic modification, artificial intelligence,
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標靶治療藥物，基因改造，人工智慧，
08:50
perhaps even implants into our brains,
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甚至於大腦植入技術等，
08:52
may change human beings themselves. And human beings,
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可能會改變人類自身的新技術。而人類，
08:55
their physique and character, has not changed for thousands of years.
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在體型和特徵上，數千年來從未曾有所改變。
08:59
It may change this century.
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可能在本世紀內就會產生變化。
09:01
It's new in our history.
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這是歷史上不曾發生的改變。
09:03
And the human impact on the global environment -- greenhouse warming,
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而人類行為對於地球環境所造成的衝擊 -- 溫室效應，
09:06
mass extinctions and so forth -- is unprecedented, too.
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生物大滅絕等等 – 也都是史無前例的。
09:10
And so, this makes this coming century a challenge.
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也因此，未來的這個世紀將成為人類的一大挑戰。
09:15
Bio- and cybertechnologies are environmentally benign
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生物科技和網路科技為環境保護
09:18
in that they offer marvelous prospects,
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提供了非凡的前景，
09:20
while, nonetheless, reducing pressure on energy and resources.
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使人類得以減輕能源運用方面的壓力。
09:24
But they will have a dark side.
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然而這些技術也有其負面性。
09:27
In our interconnected world, novel technology could empower
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在人類互相聯繫的世界裡，尖端科技亦可能
09:31
just one fanatic,
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讓一個狂熱分子，
09:33
or some weirdo with a mindset of those who now design computer viruses,
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或某些編寫電腦病毒，心態偏差的怪人取得權力，
09:37
to trigger some kind on disaster.
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從而造成某種程度上的災害。
09:39
Indeed, catastrophe could arise simply from technical misadventure --
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事實上，單純的技術意外事故也可能造成浩劫 --
09:43
error rather than terror.
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動作錯誤而非恐怖行動。
09:45
And even a tiny probability of catastrophe is unacceptable
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然而當其後果可能是造成全球性災難時，
09:50
when the downside could be of global consequence.
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即便發生的機率再小也不能被接受。
09:55
In fact, some years ago, Bill Joy wrote an article
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事實上，幾年前比爾．喬伊 寫了一篇文章
09:59
expressing tremendous concern about robots taking us over, etc.
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表達了對機器人將取代人類的議題的極大關注，等等。
10:03
I don't go along with all that,
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我並不全然同意他的觀點，
10:04
but it's interesting that he had a simple solution.
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但有趣的是他提出了一個簡單的解決方案。
10:06
It was what he called "fine-grained relinquishment."
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他稱之為精挑細選的放棄。
10:09
He wanted to give up the dangerous kind of science
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他主張放棄那類危險的科學，
10:12
and keep the good bits. Now, that's absurdly naive for two reasons.
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而選擇性保留那些好的科學。然而有兩個理由可以說明這個想法的荒謬幼稚。
10:16
First, any scientific discovery has benign consequences
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首先，任何科學探索皆有其良性的結果，
10:20
as well as dangerous ones.
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同時也有其危險的一面。
10:22
And also, when a scientist makes a discovery,
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再者，當科學家從事一項探索時，
10:25
he or she normally has no clue what the applications are going to be.
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他或她通常對結果的應用方面是沒有頭緒的。
10:29
And so what this means is that we have to accept the risks
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這意味著我們不得不承擔風險，
10:34
if we are going to enjoy the benefits of science.
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如果我們期待享受科學帶來的效益，
10:38
We have to accept that there will be hazards.
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我們也不得不承擔科學可能帶來的危害。
10:41
And I think we have to go back to what happened in the post-War era,
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而我想我們必須回顧一下在戰後那個年代的狀況，
10:47
post-World War II, when the nuclear scientists
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在二次世界大戰後, 當那些參與
10:50
who'd been involved in making the atomic bomb,
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製造原子彈的科學家們，
10:52
in many cases were concerned that they should do all they could
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普遍認為他們應該竭盡所能
10:56
to alert the world to the dangers.
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對核子武器的危險性提出警告時。
10:58
And they were inspired not by the young Einstein,
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他們所受到啟發並非僅來自於年輕時代的愛因斯坦，
11:02
who did the great work in relativity, but by the old Einstein,
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亦即發明相對論時代的他，而是晚年的愛因斯坦，
11:07
the icon of poster and t-shirt,
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那個印在海報和 T-shirt 上，
11:10
who failed in his scientific efforts to unify the physical laws.
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未及將統一物理定律的願望實現的偶像圖騰。
11:14
He was premature. But he was a moral compass --
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他的想法或許未臻成熟。但他卻是道德的標竿 --
11:17
an inspiration to scientists who were concerned with arms control.
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鼓舞著關心軍備控制的科學家們。
11:22
And perhaps the greatest living person
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而我有幸認識，
11:24
is someone I'm privileged to know, Joe Rothblatt.
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或許是在世最偉大的人物，喬．羅特布拉特。
11:27
Equally untidy office there, as you can see.
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如各位所見，他的辦公室也同樣凌亂。
11:30
He's 96 years old, and he founded the Pugwash movement.
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他已經 96 高齡，是帕格沃什運動的發起人。
11:34
He persuaded Einstein, as his last act,
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是他成功說服了愛因斯坦採取行動
11:36
to sign the famous memorandum of Bertrand Russell.
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去簽署著名的伯特蘭．羅素備忘錄。
11:39
And he sets an example of the concerned scientist.
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他為關心核武軍備的科學家們樹立了典範。
11:44
And I think to harness science optimally,
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我認為想得出駕馭科學的最佳方式，
11:47
to choose which doors to open and which to leave closed,
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亦即選擇開啟哪些門而不碰哪些門，
11:50
we need latter-day counterparts of people like Joseph Rothblatt.
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我們需要的是像約瑟夫．羅特布拉特這樣的當代人物。
11:55
We need not just campaigning physicists,
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我們所需要的不僅僅是參與運動的物理學家，
11:57
but we need biologists, computer experts
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也需要生物學家、電腦專家
11:59
and environmentalists as well.
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以及環境保護專家。
12:02
And I think academics and independent entrepreneurs
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而我認為學者和獨立企業主，
12:05
have a special obligation because they have more freedom
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具有特殊的義務，因為他們與公務員
12:07
than those in government service,
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和有商業壓力的企業僱員相比之下，
12:09
or company employees subject to commercial pressure.
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擁有更多的自由權限。
12:12
I wrote my book, "Our Final Century," as a scientist,
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我是以一個科學家的立場去創作《人類的末世紀》這本書，
12:17
just a general scientist. But there's one respect, I think,
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一個一般意義上的科學家。然而，身為一個宇宙學家，
12:20
in which being a cosmologist offered a special perspective,
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我也擁有一個特別的視角，
12:24
and that's that it offers an awareness of the immense future.
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亦即對於廣闊的未來的洞察力。
12:28
The stupendous time spans of the evolutionary past
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進化過程中的巨大時間跨度
12:31
are now part of common culture --
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如今已成為人類的共同文化 --
12:34
outside the American Bible Belt, anyway --
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至少，在美國聖經帶之外是這樣 --
12:37
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:38
but most people, even those who are familiar with evolution,
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但絕大多數的人，即便是那些相當熟悉進化論的人們，
12:42
aren't mindful that even more time lies ahead.
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也未曾注意到還有更長的時間等在眼前。
12:46
The sun has been shining for four and a half billion years,
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太陽已經照耀了45 億年，
12:49
but it'll be another six billion years before its fuel runs out.
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但還要 60 億年它的燃料才會耗盡。
12:53
On that schematic picture, a sort of time-lapse picture, we're halfway.
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在這張時間看似無限的圖解上，我們正位於半途中。
12:59
And it'll be another six billion before that happens,
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還要再過 60 億年
13:04
and any remaining life on Earth is vaporized.
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地球上所有的生命體才會被蒸發殆盡。
13:09
There's an unthinking tendency to imagine that humans will be there,
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人們總是不假思索的認為那時候人類還依然存在，
13:12
experiencing the sun's demise,
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並見證太陽消亡的歷程，
13:14
but any life and intelligence that exists then
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但實際上如果那個時候仍有智慧生命存在的話，
13:17
will be as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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也會與我們有極大的差異，正如同我們和細菌的差別。
13:21
The unfolding of intelligence and complexity
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生物智能和複雜性的發展
13:23
still has immensely far to go, here on Earth and probably far beyond.
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還有很遙遠的路程要走，除了地球，也許在更遙遠的地方也一樣。
13:29
So we are still at the beginning of the emergence of complexity
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因此我們只不過還處於地球和更遙遠未知領域的
13:32
in our Earth and beyond.
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複雜性演化的開端。
13:35
If you represent the Earth's lifetime by a single year,
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如果以一年的時間來代表地球的整個生命週期，
13:39
say from January when it was made to December,
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以一月代表地球誕生的時點，一直到十二月的滅亡，
13:42
the 21st-century would be a quarter of a second in June --
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21 世紀就相當於六月份中的四分之一秒 --
13:48
a tiny fraction of the year.
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只是一年當中的一個瞬間。
13:51
But even in this concertinaed cosmic perspective,
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但即使是由這個將宇宙視為六角風琴般褶曲複雜的視角來看，
13:55
our century is very, very special,
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我們的世紀仍是非常，非常特別的。
13:58
the first when humans can change themselves and their home planet.
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這是第一個人類有能力去改變自身和他們所在行星的世紀。
14:03
As I should have shown this earlier,
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正如我方才曾經說明的，
14:06
it will not be humans who witness the end point of the sun;
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人類將不會有機會見證到太陽消亡的時刻，
14:09
it will be creatures as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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那時候的生物與我們的差別，將會像此刻的我們與細菌的差別一樣懸殊。
14:14
When Einstein died in 1955,
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當愛因斯坦在1955年去世時，
14:17
one striking tribute to his global status was this cartoon
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有一幅漫畫是用來對他在全球的地位表達敬意，
14:20
by Herblock in the Washington Post.
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由華盛頓郵報的 賀布洛克 所繪製。
14:22
The plaque reads, "Albert Einstein lived here."
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對話框中寫著：「阿爾伯特·愛因斯坦曾在這裡生活過。」
14:26
And I'd like to end with a vignette, as it were, inspired by this image.
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受到這幅漫畫的啟發，我也想用一段小品文來結束我的談話。
14:30
We've been familiar for 40 years with this image:
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過去四十年來我們已經很熟悉這個影像：
14:36
the fragile beauty of land, ocean and clouds,
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纖細而美麗的土地，海洋和雲層，
14:39
contrasted with the sterile moonscape
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與留下太空人足跡的
14:41
on which the astronauts left their footprints.
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貧瘠月球表面形成對比。
14:45
But let's suppose some aliens had been watching our pale blue dot
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且讓我們假設有某種外星生物一直在觀察著我們暗淡的藍點（地球）
14:49
in the cosmos from afar, not just for 40 years,
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在遙遠的宇宙某處，觀察了不只四十年，
14:53
but for the entire 4.5 billion-year history of our Earth.
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而是持續了整個地球發展歷程的 45 億年。
14:58
What would they have seen?
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他們看到過些什麼？
15:00
Over nearly all that immense time,
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在漫長的時間洪流中，
15:02
Earth's appearance would have changed very gradually.
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地球外貌的演變非常緩慢。
15:05
The only abrupt worldwide change
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僅有的全球性劇烈變化
15:07
would have been major asteroid impacts or volcanic super-eruptions.
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是來自巨大的小行星撞擊或超級火山噴發所造成。
15:13
Apart from those brief traumas, nothing happens suddenly.
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除了這些短暫的創傷之外，別無其它突發劇變。
15:17
The continental landmasses drifted around.
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大陸板塊緩緩漂移。
15:20
Ice cover waxed and waned.
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冰蓋重複增厚又消融。
15:22
Successions of new species emerged, evolved and became extinct.
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新物種接續出現、進化、又滅絕。
15:26
But in just a tiny sliver of the Earth's history,
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但在地球歷史的吉光片羽中，
15:30
the last one-millionth part, a few thousand years,
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這近百萬分之一的片刻裡，短短的幾千年時間，
15:34
the patterns of vegetation altered much faster than before.
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植披改變速度比以往快了許多。
15:37
This signaled the start of agriculture.
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這象徵著農業的起步。
15:40
Change has accelerated as human populations rose.
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變化隨著人口成長而加快速度。
15:44
Then other things happened even more abruptly.
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接著有更多突如其來的變化產生。
15:46
Within just 50 years --
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在短短的 50 年之中 --
15:48
that's one hundredth of one millionth of the Earth's age --
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那不過是地球的年齡的一億分之一 --
15:52
the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to rise,
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大氣中的二氧化碳含量開始增加，
15:56
and ominously fast.
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速度快得讓人不安。
15:58
The planet became an intense emitter of radio waves --
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這個星球變成一個無線電波的強烈發射器 --
16:00
the total output from all TV and cell phones
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來源於所有的電視機、手機
16:04
and radar transmissions. And something else happened.
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和雷達傳輸系統。此外還有其他的現象發生。
16:07
Metallic objects -- albeit very small ones, a few tons at most --
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金屬物體（人造衛星） - 雖然體積不大，最多只有幾噸重 --
16:12
escaped into orbit around the Earth.
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被發射至環繞地球運行的軌道上。
16:15
Some journeyed to the moons and planets.
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有些甚至航行到月球或其它行星去。
16:17
A race of advanced extraterrestrials
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某些在遠處觀察著我們太陽系
16:19
watching our solar system from afar
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的高等外星生物
16:22
could confidently predict Earth's final doom in another six billion years.
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雖然有把握預測地球終將在 60 億年後毀滅。
16:27
But could they have predicted this unprecedented spike
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但他們是否曾預測到這在地球壽命不到一半的時點
16:31
less than halfway through the Earth's life?
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會產生前所未有的生命活動高峰期呢？
16:34
These human-induced alterations
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而這些人類所引發的改變
16:36
occupying overall less than a millionth of the elapsed lifetime
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儘管只發生在佔地球生命週期不到百萬分之一的時間裡，
16:40
and seemingly occurring with runaway speed?
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卻是以飛快的速度在產生著？
16:43
If they continued their vigil,
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如果他們持續監看，
16:45
what might these hypothetical aliens witness
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這些假想的外星人又將會
16:47
in the next hundred years?
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在未來的百年內見證到些什麼呢？
16:50
Will some spasm foreclose Earth's future?
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會不會因為某些劇變而扼殺了地球的未來？
16:53
Or will the biosphere stabilize?
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或者生物界的演變將趨於穩定？
16:56
Or will some of the metallic objects launched from the Earth
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又或者某些自地球發射的金屬物體
16:59
spawn new oases, a post-human life elsewhere?
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將植根於宇宙新綠洲，從而在他方延續後人類的生活？
17:03
The science done by the young Einstein will continue
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只要人類的文明尚存，愛因斯坦年輕時所完成的科學
17:06
as long as our civilization, but for civilization to survive,
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必將延續下去。至於文明的存續，
17:11
we'll need the wisdom of the old Einstein --
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我們需要的是愛因斯坦晚年的智慧 --
17:13
humane, global and farseeing.
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悲天憫人，胸懷全球，並且目光遠大。
17:15
And whatever happens in this uniquely crucial century
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在這個至為關鍵的世紀裡無論發生什麼事
17:20
will resonate into the remote future and perhaps far beyond the Earth,
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都將在遙遠的未來引發共鳴，影響所及並可能遠遠超出地球之外，
17:26
far beyond the Earth as depicted here.
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遠遠超出了我在這裡所描述的地球。
17:28
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝各位。
17:30
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com