TEDGlobal 2005
Martin Rees: Is this our final century?
马丁·里斯问道：这是我们最后的世纪吗？
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作为一个天文学家，同时作为人类社会中忧心忡忡的一员，马丁·里斯爵士从宇宙全景的视角考察我们的星球和其未来。他敦促要采取行动以避免科技发展过程中可能出现的毁灭性后果。
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
If you take 10,000 people at random, 9,999 have something in common:
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如果你随机挑选出10000个人，其中的9999个人会有如下共性：
00:30
their interests in business lie on or near the Earth's surface.
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他们对商业的兴趣显而易见
00:35
The odd one out is an astronomer, and I am one of that strange breed.
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余下的那位怪人是天文学家，而我就是这个奇特物种中的一员。
00:39
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:40
My talk will be in two parts. I'll talk first as an astronomer,
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我的发言将分为两部分。首先作为一个天文学家发言
00:45
and then as a worried member of the human race.
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之后作为人类社会中忧心忡忡的一员
00:49
But let's start off by remembering that Darwin showed
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让我们首先回顾达尔文所指出的：
00:54
how we're the outcome of four billion years of evolution.
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我们人类只是40亿年进化的产物。
00:58
And what we try to do in astronomy and cosmology
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我们进行天文学和宇宙学研究要做的
01:01
is to go back before Darwin's simple beginning,
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就是回溯到达尔文的理论原点
01:04
to set our Earth in a cosmic context.
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将我们的地球置于宇宙的背景中。
01:08
And let me just run through a few slides.
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请允许我展示几张图片。
01:11
This was the impact that happened last week on a comet.
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这是发生在上周的一次撞击彗星实验。
01:16
If they'd sent a nuke, it would have been rather more spectacular
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倘若他们发射的是颗核弹的话，其景象将会更加壮观。
01:18
than what actually happened last Monday.
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图片显示的是上周一的实景。
01:21
So that's another project for NASA.
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那是NASA（美国国家航空航天局）的又一个项目。
01:23
That's Mars from the European Mars Express, and at New Year.
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这张是在新年时由欧洲“火星快车号”探测器拍到的火星。
01:28
This artist's impression turned into reality
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艺术家的创想变成了现实，
01:33
when a parachute landed on Titan, Saturn's giant moon.
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当一个着陆装置降落在土星的巨大的卫星泰坦（土卫六）上。
01:37
It landed on the surface. This is pictures taken on the way down.
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它降落在土卫六的表面。这张图片拍摄于着陆途中。
01:41
That looks like a coastline.
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那些看起来像是海岸线。
01:42
It is indeed, but the ocean is liquid methane --
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它们确实是，但“海洋”是液态的甲烷 -
01:45
the temperature minus 170 degrees centigrade.
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温度是零下170摄氏度。
01:50
If we go beyond our solar system,
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如果我们放眼到太阳系之外，
01:52
we've learned that the stars aren't twinkly points of light.
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我们已经知道恒星并不是不断眨眼的光点。
01:56
Each one is like a sun with a retinue of planets orbiting around it.
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每一颗恒星都像太阳，伴有若干行星环绕。
02:01
And we can see places where stars are forming,
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我们可以看到恒星形成的区域
02:04
like the Eagle Nebula. We see stars dying.
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像天鹰星云（M16）。我们还能看到衰竭的恒星。
02:07
In six billion years, the sun will look like that.
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六十亿年后，太阳将变成这样。
02:10
And some stars die spectacularly in a supernova explosion,
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有些恒星在壮观的超新星爆发中消亡，
02:14
leaving remnants like that.
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遗留下这样的残余。
02:16
On a still bigger scale, we see entire galaxies of stars.
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在更大的范围里，我们看到恒星组成的星系。
02:20
We see entire ecosystems where gas is being recycled.
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我们看到完整的生态系统，看到气体被回收利用。
02:23
And to the cosmologist,
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对于宇宙学家来说，
02:25
these galaxies are just the atoms, as it were, of the large-scale universe.
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这些星系只不过是组成大规模宇宙空间的原子。
02:31
This picture shows a patch of sky
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这张照片展示了一小片天空，
02:34
so small that it would take about 100 patches like it
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它是如此之小，需要用大约100块同样尺寸
02:37
to cover the full moon in the sky.
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拼接在一起才能遮住天空中的满月。
02:40
Through a small telescope, this would look quite blank,
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用台稍小的天文望远镜，这个区域看似空无一物。
02:42
but you see here hundreds of little, faint smudges.
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但是现在你能看到这里有成百个微小的暗淡色块。
02:46
Each is a galaxy, fully like ours or Andromeda,
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每个都是一个星系，类似我们的银河系或仙女星系。
02:50
which looks so small and faint because its light
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它们看似微小和暗淡是因为
02:52
has taken 10 billion light-years to get to us.
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它们发出的光经历了上百亿光年才到达这里。
02:56
The stars in those galaxies probably don't have planets around them.
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那些星系中的恒星可能没有行星环绕。
03:01
There's scant chance of life there -- that's because there's been no time
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存在生命的可能性甚微 - 因为在那无足够的时间
03:04
for the nuclear fusion in stars to make silicon and carbon and iron,
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允许恒星进行核聚变，产生行星和生命所必需的
03:10
the building blocks of planets and of life.
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构造元素，如硅、碳和铁等。
03:14
We believe that all of this emerged from a Big Bang --
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我们相信所有这一切都源于一次大爆炸 -
03:20
a hot, dense state. So how did that amorphous Big Bang
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一个极热、极密态。那么，那个无定形的大爆炸是如何
03:24
turn into our complex cosmos?
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演变成我们复杂的宇宙的呢？
03:26
I'm going to show you a movie simulation
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我将播放一段模拟影片，
03:29
16 powers of 10 faster than real time,
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播放速度是实际时间的10的16次方倍速，
03:31
which shows a patch of the universe where the expansions have subtracted out.
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演示宇宙的一小部分如何在膨胀中延展开来。
03:35
But you see, as time goes on in gigayears at the bottom,
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你可以看到，底部显示的时间以十亿年为单位，
03:39
you will see structures evolve as gravity feeds
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随着引力逐渐作用于细微的不均匀密度分布，
03:42
on small, dense irregularities, and structures develop.
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空间物质结构缓慢地演化出来。
03:46
And we'll end up after 13 billion years
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于是在历经130亿年之后
03:48
with something looking rather like our own universe.
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大致有形似我们的宇宙般的结构显露出来。
03:55
And we compare simulated universes like that --
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这样可以供我们对两者进行比较 -
03:58
I'll show you a better simulation at the end of my talk --
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在我的发言结束时我会向大家展示一个更好的模拟 -
04:00
with what we actually see in the sky.
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用我们实际从天空看到的样子。
04:04
Well, we can trace things back to the earlier stages of the Big Bang,
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好吧，我们可以追溯到大爆炸后的早期场景，
04:10
but we still don't know what banged and why it banged.
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但我们仍然不知道到底是什么爆炸了以及为什么会爆炸。
04:14
That's a challenge for 21st-century science.
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那将是21世纪科学面临的挑战。
04:19
If my research group had a logo, it would be this picture here:
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如果我的研究小组要选择个徽标的话，将会是这张图片：
04:22
an ouroboros, where you see the micro-world on the left --
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一条首尾相连的环形衔尾蛇，在左边是微观世界 -
04:27
the world of the quantum -- and on the right
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即量子世界 - 而在右边是
04:30
the large-scale universe of planets, stars and galaxies.
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宏观的宇宙包括行星，恒星和星系。
04:35
We know our universes are united though --
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我们知道宇宙万物是联系在一体的 -
04:37
links between left and right.
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这张图片的左边连结到右边
04:39
The everyday world is determined by atoms,
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寻常世界决定于原子，
04:41
how they stick together to make molecules.
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即它们是如何结合在一起组成分子。
04:43
Stars are fueled by how the nuclei in those atoms react together.
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恒星利用原子核的相互作用来提供燃料。
04:49
And, as we've learned in the last few years, galaxies are held together
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我们近年来已了解到星系也是由
04:52
by the gravitational pull of so-called dark matter:
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所谓的暗物质的引力作用连系在一起。
04:55
particles in huge swarms, far smaller even than atomic nuclei.
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暗物质粒子比原子核要小很多，且大量密集。
05:01
But we'd like to know the synthesis symbolized at the very top.
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但是我们还需了解图上部的结合体（即蛇吞尾）的象征意义。
05:07
The micro-world of the quantum is understood.
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微观的量子世界已被了解。
05:10
On the right hand side, gravity holds sway. Einstein explained that.
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右边的宏观世界中引力支配一切，爱因斯坦也已给出了解答。
05:15
But the unfinished business for 21st-century science
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而二十一世纪科学尚需完成的任务
05:18
is to link together cosmos and micro-world
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是将宏观宇宙和微观量子世界用
05:20
with a unified theory -- symbolized, as it were, gastronomically
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一个统一理论联系起来 - 正如在图的上部
05:24
at the top of that picture. (Laughter)
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以美食的角度所象征的那样。（笑声）
05:26
And until we have that synthesis,
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在我们找到那样的统一理论之前，
05:28
we won't be able to understand the very beginning of our universe
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我们无法理解宇宙最开端时的情况，
05:31
because when our universe was itself the size of an atom,
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因为当宇宙的尺度同一个原子大小相仿时，
05:34
quantum effects could shake everything.
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量子效应可以摧毁一切。
05:37
And so we need a theory that unifies the very large and the very small,
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所以我们需要一个将极大和极小统一起来的理论，
05:41
which we don't yet have.
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目前我们还没能找到。
05:44
One idea, incidentally --
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顺便提一句，有一个想法是 -
05:46
and I had this hazard sign to say I'm going to speculate from now on --
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我用这个警示标识表明我在此开始进行的是推测 -
05:51
is that our Big Bang was not the only one.
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即我们最初的大爆炸并非唯一的一个。
05:53
One idea is that our three-dimensional universe
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我们的三维宇宙，可能是
05:57
may be embedded in a high-dimensional space,
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嵌入在一个更高维度的空间里，
05:59
just as you can imagine on these sheets of paper.
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就像你可以想象一下这几张纸。
06:02
You can imagine ants on one of them
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其中一张纸上的蚂蚁
06:04
thinking it's a two-dimensional universe,
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认为纸就是它们的二维宇宙，
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not being aware of another population of ants on the other.
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而它无从知晓其它纸张（二维宇宙）上的别的蚂蚁。
06:08
So there could be another universe just a millimeter away from ours,
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所以可能存在另一个宇宙，距离我们的只有一毫米远，
06:12
but we're not aware of it because that millimeter
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但我们却不能感知它，因为那一毫米距离
06:15
is measured in some fourth spatial dimension,
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是某个四维空间维度的尺寸，
06:17
and we're imprisoned in our three.
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而我们被禁锢在我们的三维空间里。
06:19
And so we believe that there may be a lot more to physical reality
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所以我们相信应该有更多的物理事实
06:24
than what we've normally called our universe --
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存在于我们通常称为宇宙的地方之外。
06:26
the aftermath of our Big Bang. And here's another picture.
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而宇宙是大爆炸的产物。这里有另一张图片。
06:29
Bottom right depicts our universe,
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在其右下角描述的是我们的宇宙，
06:31
which on the horizon is not beyond that,
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也就是远端众多泡沫中的一个，
06:33
but even that is just one bubble, as it were, in some vaster reality.
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但那也不过是更广阔现实中的一个泡沫。
06:38
Many people suspect that just as we've gone from believing
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很多人猜想随着我们开始相信
06:41
in one solar system to zillions of solar systems,
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不止有一个太阳系而是有无数的其他类太阳系，
06:45
one galaxy to many galaxies,
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不止有一个银河系而是有很多其他星系，
06:47
we have to go to many Big Bangs from one Big Bang,
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我们甚至应该考虑不止有一个大爆炸而是许多大爆炸。
06:51
perhaps these many Big Bangs displaying
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或许这许多大爆炸展示出
06:53
an immense variety of properties.
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极其多样的物理特性。
06:55
Well, let's go back to this picture.
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好吧，让我们回到这张图片。
06:57
There's one challenge symbolized at the top,
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在其上部有一个符号化了的科学挑战。
07:00
but there's another challenge to science symbolized at the bottom.
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而在其下部同样有一个符号化了的科学挑战。
07:04
You want to not only synthesize the very large and the very small,
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除了用理论来一统极大和极小两个世界，
07:07
but we want to understand the very complex.
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我们还要理解其中的复杂性。
07:10
And the most complex things are ourselves,
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而宇宙中最复杂的东西就是我们自己，
07:12
midway between atoms and stars.
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我们处于原子和恒星之间。
07:14
We depend on stars to make the atoms we're made of.
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我们依赖恒星制造组成我们身体的各类原子。
07:16
We depend on chemistry to determine our complex structure.
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我们依赖化学反应来决定我们的复杂结构。
07:22
We clearly have to be large, compared to atoms,
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相对于原子来说，我们是庞大的，
07:25
to have layer upon layer of complex structure.
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具有多层的复杂结构；
07:27
We clearly have to be small, compared to stars and planets --
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相对于恒星和行星来说，我们又是微小的，
07:30
otherwise we'd be crushed by gravity. And in fact, we are midway.
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否则会被引力压垮。事实上，我们处于中间。
07:34
It would take as many human bodies to make up the sun
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要用每个人体内的原子数目那么多的人数
07:36
as there are atoms in each of us.
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加在一起才能达到太阳的质量级。
07:38
The geometric mean of the mass of a proton
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太阳质量和质子质量的几何平均数
07:40
and the mass of the sun is 50 kilograms,
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是50千克，
07:43
within a factor of two of the mass of each person here.
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和在座的每个人的体重是一个数量级。
07:46
Well, most of you anyway.
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当然，至少是大多数人
07:47
The science of complexity is probably the greatest challenge of all,
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对人的复杂性的科学研究可能是最具挑战的，
07:52
greater than that of the very small on the left
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比图左边的微观世界
07:54
and the very large on the right.
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和图右边的宏观世界都更具挑战性。
07:57
And it's this science,
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正是这样的科学研究，
07:59
which is not only enlightening our understanding of the biological world,
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不仅在启迪我们对生物世界不断加深了解，
08:03
but also transforming our world faster than ever.
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而且也在更加快速地转变着我们的世界。
08:07
And more than that, it's engendering new kinds of change.
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以至于还产生了全新的改变。
08:11
And I now move on to the second part of my talk,
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现在我将进入我演讲的第二部分，
08:16
and the book "Our Final Century" was mentioned.
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前面有人已提到了“我们最后的世纪”这本拙作。
08:20
If I was not a self-effacing Brit, I would mention the book myself,
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如果我不是一个谦逊的英国人的话，我会自己提到这本书，
08:24
and I would add that it's available in paperback.
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而且还会告诉大家它有平装版。
08:27
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:30
And in America it was called "Our Final Hour"
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在美国这本书被称作“我们最后的一小时”
08:33
because Americans like instant gratification.
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因为美国人更注重及时行乐。
08:35
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:37
But my theme is that in this century,
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我的主旨是在最近这个世纪里，
08:40
not only has science changed the world faster than ever,
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科学不仅比以往更快地改变着世界，
08:43
but in new and different ways.
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而且以新的与以往不同的方式。
08:46
Targeted drugs, genetic modification, artificial intelligence,
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定向药物，基因改良，人工智能，
08:50
perhaps even implants into our brains,
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甚至大脑植入等等新科技
08:52
may change human beings themselves. And human beings,
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将改变人类自身的样子。而人类的
08:55
their physique and character, has not changed for thousands of years.
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体型和性格等物理特质近千年来都保持着不变。
08:59
It may change this century.
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在本世纪中改变即将来临。
09:01
It's new in our history.
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这将是历史的新的一页。
09:03
And the human impact on the global environment -- greenhouse warming,
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同时人类给全球环境带来的冲击 - 温室效应，
09:06
mass extinctions and so forth -- is unprecedented, too.
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大规模杀伤武器等等 - 也是史无前例的。
09:10
And so, this makes this coming century a challenge.
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因此，新世纪将是人类面临的挑战。
09:15
Bio- and cybertechnologies are environmentally benign
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生物和网络技术为更好的改变环境
09:18
in that they offer marvelous prospects,
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提供了美妙的前景，
09:20
while, nonetheless, reducing pressure on energy and resources.
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得以减轻我们在能源方面的压力。
09:24
But they will have a dark side.
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但是它们也有其负面性。
09:27
In our interconnected world, novel technology could empower
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在如今相互连通的世界里，新奇的科技将使得
09:31
just one fanatic,
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一个狂热分子，
09:33
or some weirdo with a mindset of those who now design computer viruses,
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或者若干个精神状态古怪的人能编制计算机病毒，
09:37
to trigger some kind on disaster.
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造成某种程度上的灾难。
09:39
Indeed, catastrophe could arise simply from technical misadventure --
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确实的是，仅仅是技术事故都将导致严重的灾难 -
09:43
error rather than terror.
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灾难往往是无心而为的结果。
09:45
And even a tiny probability of catastrophe is unacceptable
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而当后果可能是全球性的灾难时，
09:50
when the downside could be of global consequence.
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哪怕是非常小的概率也是无法被接受的。
09:55
In fact, some years ago, Bill Joy wrote an article
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事实上在几年前，比尔乔伊在一篇文章中
09:59
expressing tremendous concern about robots taking us over, etc.
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表达了对机器人将取代我们的极大关注，等等。
10:03
I don't go along with all that,
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我并不完全同意他的观点，
10:04
but it's interesting that he had a simple solution.
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但让人感兴趣的是他给出了一个简单的解决方案。
10:06
It was what he called "fine-grained relinquishment."
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他称之为精选的放弃。
10:09
He wanted to give up the dangerous kind of science
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他想要做的是有选择地保留那些好的科技，而放弃那些
10:12
and keep the good bits. Now, that's absurdly naive for two reasons.
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可能导致危险的。然而，两个理由可以说明这是很幼稚的。
10:16
First, any scientific discovery has benign consequences
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第一，任何科学发现都有其有益的后果，
10:20
as well as dangerous ones.
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也有其危险的一面。
10:22
And also, when a scientist makes a discovery,
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其二，当一个科学家做出一项发现时，
10:25
he or she normally has no clue what the applications are going to be.
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他/她通常并不知道会产生哪些应用。
10:29
And so what this means is that we have to accept the risks
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所以这意味着我们不得不承担风险
10:34
if we are going to enjoy the benefits of science.
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如果我们希冀于享受科技带来的利益。
10:38
We have to accept that there will be hazards.
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我们不得不接受科技可能带来危害。
10:41
And I think we have to go back to what happened in the post-War era,
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在这里让我们回顾一下战后发生的事情，
10:47
post-World War II, when the nuclear scientists
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在二战后，当那些参与研制
10:50
who'd been involved in making the atomic bomb,
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原子弹的科学家们
10:52
in many cases were concerned that they should do all they could
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一直关切地认为他们应该尽其所能地
10:56
to alert the world to the dangers.
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警告世界核武器的危险性。
10:58
And they were inspired not by the young Einstein,
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他们所受的启发并非来自于年轻时的爱因斯坦 -
11:02
who did the great work in relativity, but by the old Einstein,
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即发明相对论时的他 - 而是老年时的爱因斯坦，
11:07
the icon of poster and t-shirt,
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他的招牌式海报和T恤衫，
11:10
who failed in his scientific efforts to unify the physical laws.
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老年的他未能实现统一物理定律的愿望。
11:14
He was premature. But he was a moral compass --
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他的理论尚未成熟。但是他却是一个道德楷模 -
11:17
an inspiration to scientists who were concerned with arms control.
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激励着那些关心进行军备控制的科学家们。
11:22
And perhaps the greatest living person
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我有幸认识也许是尚在世的
11:24
is someone I'm privileged to know, Joe Rothblatt.
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最伟大的人之一 - 乔洛特布拉德。
11:27
Equally untidy office there, as you can see.
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正如你看到的那样，他的办公室也很凌乱。
11:30
He's 96 years old, and he founded the Pugwash movement.
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他已经96岁了，正是他发起了帕格沃什运动。
11:34
He persuaded Einstein, as his last act,
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他成功地劝说爱因斯坦最终
11:36
to sign the famous memorandum of Bertrand Russell.
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在著名的伯特兰·罗素备忘录上签字。
11:39
And he sets an example of the concerned scientist.
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他也为有责任心的科学家们树立了楷模。
11:44
And I think to harness science optimally,
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我认为如果想最好地驾驭科学，
11:47
to choose which doors to open and which to leave closed,
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也就是说选择开启哪些门而不去碰哪些门，
11:50
we need latter-day counterparts of people like Joseph Rothblatt.
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我们需要当代的像乔帕格沃什这样的科学家。
11:55
We need not just campaigning physicists,
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我们不仅需要参加竞选的物理学家，
11:57
but we need biologists, computer experts
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还需要有生物学家，计算机专家和
11:59
and environmentalists as well.
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环境保护者们共同参与。
12:02
And I think academics and independent entrepreneurs
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我认为专业学者和无党派企业家们
12:05
have a special obligation because they have more freedom
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有着特殊的义务，因为他们和政府部门工作人员
12:07
than those in government service,
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或者那些有商业压力的公司雇员们
12:09
or company employees subject to commercial pressure.
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相比有着更大的自由度。
12:12
I wrote my book, "Our Final Century," as a scientist,
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我以一个科学家的身份写的“我们最后的世纪”这本书，
12:17
just a general scientist. But there's one respect, I think,
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一个普通意义上的科学家。但是作为一个宇宙学家
12:20
in which being a cosmologist offered a special perspective,
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我同时也有着一个特别的视角，
12:24
and that's that it offers an awareness of the immense future.
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也就是对更广阔未来的洞察力。
12:28
The stupendous time spans of the evolutionary past
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进化发展的巨大时间跨度
12:31
are now part of common culture --
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现在已经是人类的共识 -
12:34
outside the American Bible Belt, anyway --
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至少是超出了美国圣经带地区-
12:37
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:38
but most people, even those who are familiar with evolution,
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但是大多数人，就算是那些熟悉进化理论的人，
12:42
aren't mindful that even more time lies ahead.
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也常常会忽视有更多的时间摆在我们的前面。
12:46
The sun has been shining for four and a half billion years,
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太阳已经照耀了45亿年，
12:49
but it'll be another six billion years before its fuel runs out.
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直到它的燃料耗尽还会有60亿年的时间。
12:53
On that schematic picture, a sort of time-lapse picture, we're halfway.
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在这张时间似乎是永恒的图解上，我们处于中途。
12:59
And it'll be another six billion before that happens,
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还有60亿年时间
13:04
and any remaining life on Earth is vaporized.
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地球上的一切生命才会蒸发。
13:09
There's an unthinking tendency to imagine that humans will be there,
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人们总是不加考虑地认为那时人类还会存在，
13:12
experiencing the sun's demise,
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去见证太阳的终结，
13:14
but any life and intelligence that exists then
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事实上如果那时尚存智慧生命的话
13:17
will be as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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也会和我们有极大的不同，就像我们和细菌之间的不同。
13:21
The unfolding of intelligence and complexity
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智能生命和复杂性的演变
13:23
still has immensely far to go, here on Earth and probably far beyond.
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还有更远的路要走，不止在地球上，还在更遥远的地方。
13:29
So we are still at the beginning of the emergence of complexity
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所以我们只是处在复杂性演变的开端，
13:32
in our Earth and beyond.
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在地球上和地球之外。
13:35
If you represent the Earth's lifetime by a single year,
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如果用一年来代表地球的整个历史进程，
13:39
say from January when it was made to December,
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也就是说把地球诞生视为一月直到它毁灭为十二月，
13:42
the 21st-century would be a quarter of a second in June --
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21世纪相当于六月份中四分之一秒的时间 -
13:48
a tiny fraction of the year.
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这象征性的一年中的短短一瞬。
13:51
But even in this concertinaed cosmic perspective,
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然而就算是从这一特殊视角来看，
13:55
our century is very, very special,
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我们现在的世纪也是非常非常特殊的。
13:58
the first when humans can change themselves and their home planet.
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它是首个人类可以改变自身和其家园的世纪。
14:03
As I should have shown this earlier,
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我前面曾指出的一点是，
14:06
it will not be humans who witness the end point of the sun;
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人类将不能见证太阳的最后生命时刻，
14:09
it will be creatures as different from us as we are from bacteria.
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那时的生物与我们的差别将和我们现在与细菌间的差别一样悬殊。
14:14
When Einstein died in 1955,
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当爱因斯坦在1955年去世时，
14:17
one striking tribute to his global status was this cartoon
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一部漫画被用来表达对他全球地位的特别敬意，
14:20
by Herblock in the Washington Post.
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漫画作者是华盛顿邮报的赫布洛克。
14:22
The plaque reads, "Albert Einstein lived here."
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漫画中的文字是：“爱因斯坦曾生活在这里”。
14:26
And I'd like to end with a vignette, as it were, inspired by this image.
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受这张漫画的启发，我用下面的文字来结束我的发言。
14:30
We've been familiar for 40 years with this image:
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四十年来我们已熟悉了这幅图片：
14:36
the fragile beauty of land, ocean and clouds,
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柔美的陆地，海洋和云层
14:39
contrasted with the sterile moonscape
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与贫瘠的月面形成对比，
14:41
on which the astronauts left their footprints.
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而宇航员已在月面留下了足迹。
14:45
But let's suppose some aliens had been watching our pale blue dot
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让我们假想某些外星生物一直在观察着我们的暗蓝小点（地球），
14:49
in the cosmos from afar, not just for 40 years,
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它们在遥远的某处，不只观察了四十年，
14:53
but for the entire 4.5 billion-year history of our Earth.
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而是历经地球发展史的整个45亿年。
14:58
What would they have seen?
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它们会看到过哪些景象呢？
15:00
Over nearly all that immense time,
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在几乎整个漫长的时间流逝中，
15:02
Earth's appearance would have changed very gradually.
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地球表面的景象变化非常缓慢。
15:05
The only abrupt worldwide change
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仅有的全球范围的剧烈变动
15:07
would have been major asteroid impacts or volcanic super-eruptions.
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不过是由大的陨石撞击或超级火山喷发所引起。
15:13
Apart from those brief traumas, nothing happens suddenly.
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除去这些剧烈变动，一切都发生的较为平缓。
15:17
The continental landmasses drifted around.
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大陆板块缓慢地漂移。
15:20
Ice cover waxed and waned.
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冰盖交替覆盖和消融。
15:22
Successions of new species emerged, evolved and became extinct.
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新的物种交替产生，进化直至灭绝。
15:26
But in just a tiny sliver of the Earth's history,
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但在地球历史的短短一瞬，
15:30
the last one-millionth part, a few thousand years,
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其百万分之一的时间部分，也就不过是近几千年里，
15:34
the patterns of vegetation altered much faster than before.
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植被产生了比以往快得多的变化。
15:37
This signaled the start of agriculture.
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这标志着人类农业的开端。
15:40
Change has accelerated as human populations rose.
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变化随着人类人口数量的增加而加快了速度。
15:44
Then other things happened even more abruptly.
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接下来某些更加显著的变化发生了。
15:46
Within just 50 years --
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在短短的50年时间里 -
15:48
that's one hundredth of one millionth of the Earth's age --
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那不过是地球年纪的一亿分之一 -
15:52
the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere started to rise,
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大气中的二氧化碳含量开始升高，
15:56
and ominously fast.
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而且是噩兆般的快速。
15:58
The planet became an intense emitter of radio waves --
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地球开始发射出强烈的电磁波 -
16:00
the total output from all TV and cell phones
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其来源是所有的电视，手机
16:04
and radar transmissions. And something else happened.
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和雷达信号传输。另外还有一些景象出现了。
16:07
Metallic objects -- albeit very small ones, a few tons at most --
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金属物体 -尽管个头不大，最多重几吨 -
16:12
escaped into orbit around the Earth.
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被发射到了地球的轨道中（指人造卫星）。
16:15
Some journeyed to the moons and planets.
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有些甚至被发射到月球或其他行星。
16:17
A race of advanced extraterrestrials
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地球外的高等生物
16:19
watching our solar system from afar
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在遥远的地方观察我们的太阳系的话，
16:22
could confidently predict Earth's final doom in another six billion years.
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可以肯定地预期在60亿年的时间内地球将毁灭。
16:27
But could they have predicted this unprecedented spike
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但是他们是否能预期这种不到地球寿命的一半时
16:31
less than halfway through the Earth's life?
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发生的史无前例的生命活动高潮呢？
16:34
These human-induced alterations
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这些由人类主导的改变
16:36
occupying overall less than a millionth of the elapsed lifetime
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虽然只是发生在生命历程中的不到百万分之一的时段内，
16:40
and seemingly occurring with runaway speed?
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却有着惊人的改变速度。
16:43
If they continued their vigil,
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如果他们持续地监视下去，
16:45
what might these hypothetical aliens witness
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这些假想中的外星生物将会
16:47
in the next hundred years?
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在今后的一百年当中看到些什么呢？
16:50
Will some spasm foreclose Earth's future?
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会否在一阵发作中丧失了地球的未来？
16:53
Or will the biosphere stabilize?
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又或者整个生物圈稳定下来？
16:56
Or will some of the metallic objects launched from the Earth
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再或者由一些从地球发射出的金属物体
16:59
spawn new oases, a post-human life elsewhere?
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将人类生命后的新的绿洲传播到其它地方？
17:03
The science done by the young Einstein will continue
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由年轻的爱因斯坦所做出的科学研究将随着人类文明
17:06
as long as our civilization, but for civilization to survive,
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的发展而持续下去。但是人类文明若想得以持续存在，
17:11
we'll need the wisdom of the old Einstein --
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我们需要老年爱因斯坦般的智慧 -
17:13
humane, global and farseeing.
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仁爱，全球观和远见卓识。
17:15
And whatever happens in this uniquely crucial century
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在这个至为关键的世纪里无论发生什么
17:20
will resonate into the remote future and perhaps far beyond the Earth,
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都将在遥远的未来产生共鸣，而且可能远远超出地球的范围，
17:26
far beyond the Earth as depicted here.
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远远超出在这里所描述的地球。
17:28
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
17:30
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com