TED2009
Bill Gates: Mosquitos, malaria and education
Bil Gejts (Bill Gates) uživo
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Bil Gejts (Bill Gates) se nada da će putem novog tipa filantropskog rada uspeti da reši neke od najvećih svetskih problema. U veoma pasioniranom, i naravno zabavnom, osamnaestominutnom govoru, navodi nas da se zamislimo oko dva velika pitanja i načina kako na te probleme da odgovorimo.
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I wrote a letter last week talking about the work of the foundation,
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Napisao sam pismo prošle nedelje u kojem sam podelio neke od problema
00:18
sharing some of the problems.
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sa kojima se susrećemo u radu naše fondacije.
00:21
And Warren Buffet had recommended I do that --
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Voren Bafet mi je preporučio da uradim to -
00:24
being honest about what was going well, what wasn't,
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da budem iskren o tome šta dobro funkcioniše, a šta ne
00:27
and making it kind of an annual thing.
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i da to uvedem kao tradiciju.
00:30
A goal I had there was to draw more people in to work on those problems,
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Moj cilj je bio da privučem više ljudi da se pozabave ovim problemima,
00:33
because I think there are some very important problems
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jer smatram da su to veoma značajni problemi na kojima
00:36
that don't get worked on naturally.
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se po pravilu ne radi dovoljno.
00:39
That is, the market does not drive the scientists,
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Stvar je u tome da tržište ne navodi naučnike,
00:44
the communicators, the thinkers, the governments
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promotere, mislioce, vlade
00:47
to do the right things.
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da čine prave stvari.
00:50
And only by paying attention to these things
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Samo uz obraćenje pažnje na te stvari
00:53
and having brilliant people who care and draw other people in
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i umrežavanjem brilijantnih ljudi kojima je stalo i uvlačenjem drugih ljudi u proces
00:57
can we make as much progress as we need to.
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možemo doći do rešenja koja su nam neophodna.
00:59
So this morning I'm going to share two of these problems
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Podeliću sa vama ovog jutra dva problema
01:02
and talk about where they stand.
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i objasniću vam kakva je tu situacija.
01:05
But before I dive into those I want to admit that I am an optimist.
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Ali pre nego što krenem u analizu, želim da priznam da sam ja optimista.
01:09
Any tough problem, I think it can be solved.
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Mislim da svaki problem može biti rešen, bez obzira koliko je komplikovan.
01:13
And part of the reason I feel that way is looking at the past.
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Analiza prošlosti je deo razloga što imam takav stav.
01:16
Over the past century, average lifespan has more than doubled.
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Životni vek se u toku prethodnog veka i više nego udvostručio.
01:21
Another statistic, perhaps my favorite,
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Još jedan statistički podatak, možda moj omiljeni,
01:24
is to look at childhood deaths.
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je analiza dečjeg mortaliteta.
01:27
As recently as 1960, 110 million children were born,
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Ne tako davne 1960. je rođeno 110 miliona dece,
01:33
and 20 million of those died before the age of five.
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a 20 miliona je umrlo pre petog rođendana.
01:37
Five years ago, 135 million children were born -- so, more --
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Pre pet godina rodilo se 135 miliona dece - dakle više --
01:41
and less than 10 million of them died before the age of five.
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a manje od 10 miliona je umrlo pre navršene pete godine.
01:47
So that's a factor of two reduction of the childhood death rate.
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Tako da je smtrnost kod dece smanjena dva puta.
01:52
It's a phenomenal thing.
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To je fantastična stvar.
01:54
Each one of those lives matters a lot.
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Svaki od ovih života je veoma važan.
01:57
And the key reason we were able to it was not only rising incomes
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Ključni razlog što se to desilo nije samo povećanje standarda,
02:02
but also a few key breakthroughs:
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već takođe i nekoliko ključnih otkrića:
02:05
vaccines that were used more widely.
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vakcinisanje koje je uspostavljeno širom sveta.
02:08
For example, measles was four million of the deaths
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Na primer, samo su boginje uzrokovale smrt četiri miliona
02:11
back as recently as 1990
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ne tako davne 1990.,
02:13
and now is under 400,000.
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a danas je taj broj ispod 400 000.
02:16
So we really can make changes.
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Tako da zaista možemo da uslovimo promene.
02:18
The next breakthrough is to cut that 10 million in half again.
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Sledeće otkriće će biti da tih deset miliona prepolovimo ponovo.
02:22
And I think that's doable in well under 20 years.
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Mislim da je to rešivo u narednih dvadesetak godina.
02:26
Why? Well there's only a few diseases
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Zašto? Pa postoji samo nekoliko bolesti
02:30
that account for the vast majority of those deaths:
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koje uzrokuju najveći deo ovih smrtih slučajeva:
02:33
diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria.
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dijareja, upala pluća i malarija.
02:39
So that brings us to the first problem that I'll raise this morning,
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Ovo nas dovodi do prvog problema o kojem ću vam ovog jutra pričati,
02:44
which is how do we stop a deadly disease that's spread by mosquitos?
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a to je kako da zaustavimo smrtonosnu bolest koju prenose komarci?
02:51
Well, what's the history of this disease?
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Pa, hajde da pogledamo istoriju ove bolesti.
02:53
It's been a severe disease for thousands of years.
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Hiljadama godina je to bila veoma teška bolest.
02:56
In fact, if we look at the genetic code,
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Činjenica je da ukoliko analiziramo genetički kod
02:59
it's the only disease we can see
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uočićemo da je to jedina bolest za koju su ljudi
03:02
that people who lived in Africa
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koji su živeli u Africi razvili evolutivne
03:04
actually evolved several things to avoid malarial deaths.
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adaptacije kako bi izbegli smrt od malarije.
03:08
Deaths actually peaked at a bit over five million in the 1930s.
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Stopa smrtnosti je doživela vrhunac -malo više od pet miliona ljudi - u 1930-tim.
03:14
So it was absolutely gigantic.
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Bolest je imala gigantske razmere.
03:17
And the disease was all over the world.
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Bila je rasprostranjena po celom svetu.
03:20
A terrible disease. It was in the United States. It was in Europe.
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Očajna bolest. U Sjedinjenim Državama. U Evropi.
03:23
People didn't know what caused it until the early 1900s,
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Ljudi nisu znali uzrok bolesti do početka dvadesetog veka,
03:26
when a British military man figured out that it was mosquitos.
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kada je jedan britanski vojnik shvatio da su uzrok komarci.
03:32
So it was everywhere.
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Bila je posvuda.
03:34
And two tools helped bring the death rate down.
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Dva sredstva su dovela do smanjenja stope smrtnosti.
03:38
One was killing the mosquitos with DDT.
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Prvo oruđe je ubijanje komaraca DDT-em.
03:41
The other was treating the patients with quinine, or quinine derivatives.
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Drugo je lečenje pacijanata kininom ili derivatima kinina.
03:46
And so that's why the death rate did come down.
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To je uzrok što je stopa smrtnosti smanjena.
03:50
Now, ironically, what happened was
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Ironija je u tome što je bolest
03:53
it was eliminated from all the temperate zones,
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eliminisana iz umerenog klimatskog pojasa,
03:56
which is where the rich countries are.
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u kojem su i bogate zemlje.
03:57
So we can see: 1900, it's everywhere.
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Možemo uočiti da je 1900. bolest posvuda.
03:59
1945, it's still most places.
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1945. je bolest i dalje na mnogim mestima.
04:03
1970, the U.S. and most of Europe have gotten rid of it.
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Sjedinjene Države i veliki deo Evrope su već 1970. oslobođeni bolesti.
04:06
1990, you've gotten most of the northern areas.
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1990. je nema u većini severnih krajeva.
04:09
And more recently you can see it's just around the equator.
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Od skora je možete naći samo u oblastima oko ekvatora.
04:15
And so this leads to the paradox that
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To je dovelo do paradoksa da usled toga
04:19
because the disease is only in the poorer countries,
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što je bolest locirana u siromašnim zemljama,
04:21
it doesn't get much investment.
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ne dolazi do investiranja u rešenje problema.
04:25
For example, there's more money put into baldness drugs
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Na primer, više se para ulaže u nalaženje leka protiv ćelavosti
04:29
than are put into malaria.
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nego u istraživanje malarije.
04:32
Now, baldness, it's a terrible thing.
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Ćelavost je naravno očajna stvar.
04:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:38
And rich men are afflicted.
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Ugrožava bogate ljude.
04:41
And so that's why that priority has been set.
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Usled toga su tako postavljeni prioriteti.
04:47
But, malaria --
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Ali, malarija --
04:49
even the million deaths a year caused by malaria
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čak i milioni smrti godišnje koje su njome uzrokovane
04:51
greatly understate its impact.
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ne govore dovoljno o pravom uticaju ove bolesti.
04:53
Over 200 million people at any one time are suffering from it.
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U svakom trenutku više od 200 miliona ljudi pati od malarije.
04:56
It means that you can't get the economies in these areas going
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To znači da u tim regionima ne može da se pokrene ekonomija
05:01
because it just holds things back so much.
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jer bolest usporava razvitak.
05:04
Now, malaria is of course transmitted by mosquitos.
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Malariju prenose komarci.
05:08
I brought some here, just so you could experience this.
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Doneo sam nekoliko komaraca, kako biste to doživeli.
05:13
We'll let those roam around the auditorium a little bit.
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Pustiću ih da malo lete auditorijumom.
05:17
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:20
There's no reason only poor people should have the experience.
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Ne postoji razlog da samo siromašni ljudi dožive to iskustvo.
05:23
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
05:30
Those mosquitos are not infected.
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Ovi komarci nisu zaraženi.
05:35
So we've come up with a few new things. We've got bed nets.
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Izumeli smo par novih stvari. Izumeli smo mreže za krevete.
05:39
And bed nets are a great tool.
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Mreže za krevete su odlično oruđe.
05:42
What it means is the mother and child stay under the bed net at night,
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To znači da majku i dete koji spavaju ispod mreže,
05:45
so the mosquitos that bite late at night can't get at them.
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ne mogu da napadnu komarci koji su aktivni kasno u noć.
05:50
And when you use indoor spraying with DDT
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Ukoliko koristite DDT za oprašivanje unutrašnjeg prostora
05:55
and those nets
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i ove mreže, možete
05:56
you can cut deaths by over 50 percent.
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prepoloviti broj smrtnih slučajeva.
05:59
And that's happened now in a number of countries.
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To se sada dešava u nekoliko zemalja.
06:02
It's great to see.
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Divno je to videti.
06:04
But we have to be careful because malaria --
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Moramo biti jako pažljivi jer malarija,
06:07
the parasite evolves and the mosquito evolves.
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taj parazit evoluira i komarci evoluiraju.
06:12
So every tool that we've ever had in the past has eventually become ineffective.
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Svako oruđe koje smo imali u prošlosti je lagano postalo neefikasno.
06:16
And so you end up with two choices.
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Na kraju imate dva izbora.
06:19
If you go into a country with the right tools and the right way,
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Ukoliko odete u državu sa pravim oruđem koje koristite na ispravan način
06:23
you do it vigorously,
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i agresivno napadnete,
06:26
you can actually get a local eradication.
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može doći do lokalne eliminacije parazita.
06:29
And that's where we saw the malaria map shrinking.
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To su mesta gde smo videli na mapi da se malarija povukla.
06:31
Or, if you go in kind of half-heartedly,
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Ali ako to uradite sa pola sredstava,
06:34
for a period of time you'll reduce the disease burden,
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u određenom periodu ćete smanjiti stepen oboljenja,
06:37
but eventually those tools will become ineffective,
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ali će na kraju to oruđe zastareti,
06:41
and the death rate will soar back up again.
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i stopa smrtnosti će se opet povećati.
06:44
And the world has gone through this where it paid attention and then didn't pay attention.
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Svet je prošao faze kada je tome posvećivao pažnju i kada to nije činio.
06:49
Now we're on the upswing.
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Sada smo na uzlaznoj putanji.
06:51
Bed net funding is up.
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Finansiranje mreža za krevete je u porastu.
06:54
There's new drug discovery going on.
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Dolazimo do novih lekova.
06:57
Our foundation has backed a vaccine that's going into phase three trial
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Naša fondacija je podržala razvoj vakcine koja će za par meseci
07:01
that starts in a couple months.
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ući u treću fazu kliničkih istraživanja.
07:02
And that should save over two thirds of the lives if it's effective.
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To bi trebalo da spase više od dve trećine života ako je vakcina delotvorna.
07:05
So we're going to have these new tools.
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Imaćemo ova nova oruđa za borbu.
07:08
But that alone doesn't give us the road map.
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Ali to nam samo po sebi ne daje smernice.
07:11
Because the road map to get rid of this disease
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Uputstvo za eliminisanje ove bolesti
07:14
involves many things.
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uključuje mnogo stvari.
07:16
It involves communicators to keep the funding high,
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To podrazumeva angažovanost govornika koji konstantno prikupljaju donacije,
07:19
to keep the visibility high,
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koji odžavaju transparentnost,
07:21
to tell the success stories.
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koji pričaju o uspešnim pričama.
07:23
It involves social scientists,
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To uključuje ljude koji se bave socijalnim naukama,
07:25
so we know how to get not just 70 percent of the people to use the bed nets,
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kako bismo znali ne samo kako da dođemo do toga da ne samo 70% ljudi
07:28
but 90 percent.
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koristi mreže za krevete, već 90% ljudi.
07:30
We need mathematicians to come in and simulate this,
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Neophodni su nam matematičari koji bi radili simulacije ovih procesa,
07:33
to do Monte Carlo things to understand how these tools combine and work together.
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koji bi radili "Monte Carlo" predviđanja kako bismo razumeli kako da kombinujemo sva ova oruđa zajedno.
07:39
Of course we need drug companies to give us their expertise.
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Neophodno je da farmaceutske kompanije podele sa nama svoju stručnost.
07:42
We need rich-world governments to be very generous in providing aid for these things.
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Neophodne su nam vlade bogatih zemalja da obezbede velikodušnu pomoć za ove stvari.
07:47
And so as these elements come together,
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Dok se svi ovi elementi lagano uklapaju,
07:50
I'm quite optimistic
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optimističan sam da ćemo
07:53
that we will be able to eradicate malaria.
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biti u stanju da iskorenimo malariju.
07:57
Now let me turn to a second question,
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Sada bih se posvetio sledećem pitanju,
08:00
a fairly different question, but I'd say equally important.
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a to je poprilično drukčije pitanje, ali bih rekao da je jednako važno.
08:04
And this is: How do you make a teacher great?
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To je: "Kako nastavnike učiniti izvanrednim?"
08:07
It seems like the kind of question that people would spend a lot of time on,
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To deluje kao tip pitanja kojim bi se ljudi dugo bavili,
08:12
and we'd understand very well.
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i koje bismo dobro razumeli.
08:15
And the answer is, really, that we don't.
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U principu je odgovor da mi to ne činimo.
08:19
Let's start with why this is important.
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Počeo bih sa objašnjenjem zašto je to važno.
08:22
Well, all of us here, I'll bet, had some great teachers.
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Kladio bih se da smo svi mi ovde imali po nekog odličnog učitelja.
08:26
We all had a wonderful education.
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Svi smo imali fantastično obrazovanje.
08:29
That's part of the reason we're here today,
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To je deo razloga što smo danas ovde,
08:32
part of the reason we're successful.
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deo razloga što smo uspešni.
08:34
I can say that, even though I'm a college drop-out.
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Ja to mogu da kažem i pored toga što sam odustao od fakulteta.
08:37
I had great teachers.
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Imao sam divne nastavnike.
08:40
In fact, in the United States, the teaching system has worked fairly well.
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Činjenica je da je u Sjedinjenim Državama obrazovni sistem bio prilično dobar.
08:45
There are fairly effective teachers in a narrow set of places.
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Postoje poprilično dobri učitelji na malom broju mesta.
08:50
So the top 20 percent of students have gotten a good education.
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Tako da je najboljih 20 posto studenata dobilo dobro obrazovanje.
08:53
And those top 20 percent have been the best in the world,
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Tih 20 posto su bili najbolji na svetu,
08:57
if you measure them against the other top 20 percent.
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ukoliko ih uporedite sa 20 posto najboljih studenata iz drugih krajeva.
09:00
And they've gone on to create the revolutions in software and biotechnology
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Oni su izneli revolucije u svetu softvera i biotehnologiji
09:05
and keep the U.S. at the forefront.
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i održavali su Ameriku na vrhu.
09:09
Now, the strength for those top 20 percent
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Gledajući relativan odnos,
09:12
is starting to fade on a relative basis,
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snaga baš tih 20 posto danas počinje da slabi,
09:15
but even more concerning is the education that the balance of people are getting.
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ali još više zabrinjava nesrazmeran kvalitet obrazovanja koji se ljudima pruža.
09:21
Not only has that been weak. it's getting weaker.
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Ne samo da je slaba ravnoteža, već postaje još slabija.
09:26
And if you look at the economy, it really is only providing opportunities now
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Analiza ekonomije nam govori da tržište obezbeđuje mogućnosti
09:30
to people with a better education.
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samo za ljude sa boljim obrazovanjem.
09:33
And we have to change this.
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To moramo promeniti.
09:36
We have to change it so that people have equal opportunity.
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Moramo promeniti to na takav način da bi ljudi imali iste šanse.
09:39
We have to change it so that the country is strong
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Moramo da unesemo takve promene koje će omogućiti da naša zemlja ostane jaka
09:42
and stays at the forefront
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i ostane na samom čelu dostignuća
09:44
of things that are driven by advanced education,
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koja su vođena naprednim obrazovanjem,
09:47
like science and mathematics.
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kao što su nauka i matematika.
09:49
When I first learned the statistics,
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Kada sam počeo da se bavim statistikom,
09:52
I was pretty stunned at how bad things are.
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zaprepastio sam se time koliko loše stvari stoje.
09:55
Over 30 percent of kids never finish high school.
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Preko 30 posto dece ne završi srednju školu.
09:58
And that had been covered up for a long time
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To je bilo prikrivano jako dugo na taj način
10:01
because they always took the dropout rate as the number
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što je stopa odustajanja od srednje škole izražavana kao odnos broja
10:04
who started in senior year and compared it to the number who finished senior year.
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dece koja upišu završnu godinu i broja dece koja završe školu.
10:09
Because they weren't tracking where the kids were before that.
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Nisu vodili računa o tome gde su bila deca pre završne godine.
10:11
But most of the dropouts had taken place before that.
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Najčešće deca odustaju od škole pre završne godine.
10:14
They had to raise the stated dropout rate
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Čim je merenje odrađeno na taj način,
10:17
as soon as that tracking was done
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morali su da povise zvaničnu stopu
10:19
to over 30 percent.
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odustajanja na preko 30 posto.
10:21
For minority kids, it's over 50 percent.
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Za manjine, taj broj iznosi iznad 50 posto.
10:25
And even if you graduate from high school,
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Čak iako završite srednju školu,
10:28
if you're low-income,
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a siromašni ste,
10:31
you have less than a 25 percent chance of ever completing a college degree.
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imate manje od 25% posto veorvatnoće da ikada završite studije.
10:35
If you're low-income in the United States,
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Ukoliko ste siromašni u Sjedinjenim Državama,
10:40
you have a higher chance of going to jail
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veća je verovatnoća da ćete završiti u zatvoru
10:44
than you do of getting a four-year degree.
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nego da završite četvorogodišnje studije.
10:46
And that doesn't seem entirely fair.
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Ne čini mi se da je to baš pravedno.
10:49
So, how do you make education better?
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Pa kako bismo mogli da unapredimo obrazovni sistem?
10:52
Now, our foundation, for the last nine years, has invested in this.
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Naša fondacija u proteklih 9 godina investira u to.
10:56
There's many people working on it.
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Mnogi ljudi rade na tome.
10:59
We've worked on small schools,
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Radimo sa malim školama,
11:02
we've funded scholarships,
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delimo stipendije,
11:04
we've done things in libraries.
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bavimo se bibliotekama.
11:06
A lot of these things had a good effect.
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Mnoge od tih akcija su dale pozitivne rezultate.
11:08
But the more we looked at it, the more we realized that having great teachers
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Što smo to više analizirali, shvatili smo da je ključ u
11:11
was the very key thing.
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kvalitetnim nastavnicima.
11:14
And we hooked up with some people studying
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Povezali smo se sa ljudima koji analiziraju
11:17
how much variation is there between teachers,
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koliko varijacija postoji među nastavnicima,
11:20
between, say, the top quartile -- the very best --
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između recimo prve četvrtine - dakle najboljih -
11:23
and the bottom quartile.
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i najlošije plasirane četvrtine.
11:25
How much variation is there within a school or between schools?
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Koliko varijacija postoji u samoj školi i među školama?
11:28
And the answer is that these variations are absolutely unbelievable.
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Odgovor nam kaže da su te razlike apsolutno neverovatne.
11:33
A top quartile teacher will increase the performance of their class --
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Najbolji nastavnici poboljšaju rezultate svojih učenika,
11:38
based on test scores --
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mereno rezultatima testova,
11:41
by over 10 percent in a single year.
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čak i za više od 10 posto u toku jedne godine.
11:43
What does that mean?
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Šta to znači?
11:44
That means that if the entire U.S., for two years,
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To znači da ukoliko bismo u celoj Americi u periodu od dve godine
11:47
had top quartile teachers,
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imali samo te najbolje učitelje, čitava
11:50
the entire difference between us and Asia would go away.
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razlika između nas i Azije bi nestala.
11:54
Within four years we would be blowing everyone in the world away.
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Za samo četiri godine bismo bili bolji od bilo koga na svetu.
12:00
So, it's simple. All you need are those top quartile teachers.
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Tako da je to jednostavno. Sve što je potrebno su ti najbolji učitelji.
12:05
And so you'd say, "Wow, we should reward those people.
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Rekli biste: "Trebalo bi nagraditi te ljude.
12:09
We should retain those people.
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Trebalo bi zadržati te ljude.
12:12
We should find out what they're doing and transfer that skill to other people."
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Trebalo bi da shvatimo šta to oni rade i treba podučiti druge ljude tim veštinama."
12:15
But I can tell you that absolutely is not happening today.
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Mogu vam reći da se upravo to danas uopšte ne dešava.
12:20
What are the characteristics of this top quartile?
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Šta karakteriše ove najbolje učitelje?
12:23
What do they look like?
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Kako oni izgledaju?
12:25
You might think these must be very senior teachers.
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Sigurno mislite da su to stariji nastavnici.
12:28
And the answer is no.
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Pa, odgovor je da nisu.
12:30
Once somebody has taught for three years
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U momentu kada neko predaje već tri godine
12:33
their teaching quality does not change thereafter.
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kvalitet njegovih predavanja se ne menja nakon toga.
12:38
The variation is very, very small.
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Varijacije su veoma, veoma male.
12:41
You might think these are people with master's degrees.
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Možda mislite da su to ljudi koji su završili magistrature.
12:46
They've gone back and they've gotten their Master's of Education.
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Vratili su se školovanju i završili magistraturu u oblasti obrazovanja.
12:49
This chart takes four different factors
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Ovaj grafik ovde uzima u obzir četiri različita faktora
12:52
and says how much do they explain teaching quality.
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i govori nam koliko svaki od njih doprinosi kvalitetu nastave.
12:55
That bottom thing, which says there's no effect at all,
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Ova stvar na dnu, koja govori da ne postoji nikakav efekat,
12:58
is a master's degree.
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jeste upravo magistratura.
13:02
Now, the way the pay system works is there's two things that are rewarded.
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Sada, sistem plaćanja funkcioniše tako što se nagrađuju dve stvari.
13:06
One is seniority.
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Jedna su godine staža.
13:08
Because your pay goes up and you vest into your pension.
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Vaša plata se povećava dok se lagano približavate penziji.
13:11
The second is giving extra money to people who get their master's degree.
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Drugo pravilo je da se daje više novca osobama koje su završile magistraturu.
13:14
But it in no way is associated with being a better teacher.
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Ali to nikako nije povezano sa tim ko je bolji nastavnik.
13:17
Teach for America: slight effect.
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Podučavaj za Ameriku: ta parola ima mali efekat.
13:20
For math teachers majoring in math there's a measurable effect.
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Uspeh je veći ako je nastavnik matematike to i studirao i to se može izmeriti.
13:24
But, overwhelmingly, it's your past performance.
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Ali najznačajniji su pređašnji rezultati.
13:29
There are some people who are very good at this.
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Postoje ljudi koji su veoma dobri u ovome.
13:32
And we've done almost nothing
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Mi skoro ništa nismo uradili
13:35
to study what that is
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kao bismo shvatili šta je to,
13:38
and to draw it in and to replicate it,
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privukli te osobine, umnožili ih,
13:41
to raise the average capability --
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kako bismo povećali prosečnu sposobnost
13:44
or to encourage the people with it to stay in the system.
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ili ohrabrili ljude koji te osobine imaju da ostanu u sistemu.
13:47
You might say, "Do the good teachers stay and the bad teacher's leave?"
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Mogli biste reći: "Da li dobri nastavnici ostaju u sistemu, a loši odlaze?"
13:50
The answer is, on average, the slightly better teachers leave the system.
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Prosečno gledano, situacija je takva da malo bolji učitelji napuštaju sistem.
13:53
And it's a system with very high turnover.
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To je sistem sa veoma velikom stopom promena.
13:57
Now, there are a few places -- very few -- where great teachers are being made.
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Postoji samo nekoliko mesta koja produkuju fantastične nastavnike.
14:03
A good example of one is a set of charter schools called KIPP.
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Dobar primer su male škole koje se nazivaju ZJM.
14:08
KIPP means Knowledge Is Power.
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ZJM znači Znanje Je Moć.
14:11
It's an unbelievable thing.
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Neverovatna stvar.
14:14
They have 66 schools -- mostly middle schools, some high schools --
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Govorimo o 66 škola -- to su uglavnom srednje škole, nekoliko gimnazija --
14:17
and what goes on is great teaching.
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i nastava je fantastična.
14:21
They take the poorest kids,
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Upisuju najsiromašniju decu,
14:24
and over 96 percent of their high school graduates go to four-year colleges.
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i čak preko 96% njihovih gimnazijalaca upiše četvorogodišnje studije.
14:28
And the whole spirit and attitude in those schools
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Duh i stav tih škola su poprilično
14:31
is very different than in the normal public schools.
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različiti u odnosu na regularne, javne škole.
14:34
They're team teaching. They're constantly improving their teachers.
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Odlikuju se timskim radom. Njihovi nastavnici se konstantno usavršavaju.
14:38
They're taking data, the test scores,
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Analiziraju podatke, rezultate testova,
14:41
and saying to a teacher, "Hey, you caused this amount of increase."
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i kažu nastavnicima: "Hej, doveo si do ovolikog poboljšanja kod dece."
14:44
They're deeply engaged in making teaching better.
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Ozbiljno se bave time da usavrše nastavu.
14:48
When you actually go and sit in one of these classrooms,
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Ukoliko prisustvujete nekim od tih časova,
14:51
at first it's very bizarre.
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prvi utisak je veoma čudan.
14:54
I sat down and I thought, "What is going on?"
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Sedeo sam tamo i pomislio: "Šta se to dešava?"
14:57
The teacher was running around, and the energy level was high.
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Nastavnik je trčao na sve strane i učionica je bila prepuna energije.
15:00
I thought, "I'm in the sports rally or something.
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Pomislio sam: "Ja sam na atletskoj trci ili tako nečemu.
15:03
What's going on?"
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Šta se dešava?"
15:05
And the teacher was constantly scanning to see which kids weren't paying attention,
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Nastavnik je non-stop pratio sve kako bi uočio koja deca ne obraćaju pažnju,
15:08
which kids were bored,
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kojoj deci je dosadno,
15:10
and calling kids rapidly, putting things up on the board.
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prozivao je decu jako brzo, postavljao probleme na tabli.
15:13
It was a very dynamic environment,
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To je veoma dinamična sredina,
15:15
because particularly in those middle school years -- fifth through eighth grade --
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jer je naročito važno u starijim razredima osnovne škole -- od 5. do 8. --
15:18
keeping people engaged and setting the tone
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da deca budu animirana i da se uspostavi pravilo
15:21
that everybody in the classroom needs to pay attention,
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da svako u učionici mora da prati nastavu,
15:24
nobody gets to make fun of it or have the position of the kid who doesn't want to be there.
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nikome nije dozvoljeno da to ismeva ili da ima stav "ja ne želim da budem tu".
15:30
Everybody needs to be involved.
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Svi moraju da učestvuju u tome.
15:32
And so KIPP is doing it.
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To je ono što ZJM čini.
15:35
How does that compare to a normal school?
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A kako stoje stvari u regularnim školama?
15:38
Well, in a normal school, teachers aren't told how good they are.
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Pa, u regularnim školama se nastavnicima ne govori koliko su dobri.
15:42
The data isn't gathered.
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Podaci se ne prikupljaju.
15:45
In the teacher's contract,
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U ugovoru nastavnika je određeno
15:47
it will limit the number of times the principal can come into the classroom --
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da je broj poseta direkotra nastavi limitiran -
15:51
sometimes to once per year.
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ponekad čak i na samo jednom godišnje.
15:53
And they need advanced notice to do that.
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Neophodno je najaviti tu posetu.
15:56
So imagine running a factory where you've got these workers,
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Zamislite da vodite fabriku u kojoj neki od radnika
15:59
some of them just making crap
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samo pravi neke gluposti
16:02
and the management is told, "Hey, you can only come down here once a year,
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ali je menadžerima rečeno: "Hej, možete da dođete ovde samo jednom godišnje,
16:06
but you need to let us know, because we might actually fool you,
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ali morate nam se javiti unapred, kako bismo mogli da vas prevarimo,
16:08
and try and do a good job in that one brief moment."
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i pokušamo da tog trenutka odradimo posao kako treba."
16:12
Even a teacher who wants to improve doesn't have the tools to do it.
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Čak i nastavnik koji želi da se usavršava nema oruđa da to i učini.
16:17
They don't have the test scores,
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Oni nemaju rezultate testova,
16:19
and there's a whole thing of trying to block the data.
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i postoji čitav proces kojim se podaci čine nedostupnim.
16:22
For example, New York passed a law
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Na primer, Njujork je upravo usvojio zakon po kojem
16:25
that said that the teacher improvement data could not be made available and used
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se podaci o kvalitetu nastave učitelja ne mogu koristiti prilikom donošenja
16:30
in the tenure decision for the teachers.
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odluke o unapređenju nastavnika.
16:34
And so that's sort of working in the opposite direction.
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Tako da to dela u potpuno suprotnom pravcu.
16:37
But I'm optimistic about this,
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Ja sam i dalje optimista,
16:39
I think there are some clear things we can do.
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i mislim da su potpuno jasne neke stvari koje treba da učinimo.
16:43
First of all, there's a lot more testing going on,
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Pre svega, radimo još uvek puno testiranja
16:47
and that's given us the picture of where we are.
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i to nam daje jasniju sliku gde stojimo sada.
16:50
And that allows us to understand who's doing it well,
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To nam omogućava da shvatimo ko dobro radi posao
16:54
and call them out, and find out what those techniques are.
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i pozovemo te ljude i saznamo koje tehnike su tu u pitanju.
16:57
Of course, digital video is cheap now.
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Naravno, digitalna tehnologija je sada jeftina.
17:00
Putting a few cameras in the classroom
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Ukoliko biste postavili nekoliko kamera u učionicu
17:02
and saying that things are being recorded on an ongoing basis
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i redovno snimali nastavu,
17:08
is very practical in all public schools.
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to bi bilo veoma praktično u državnim školama.
17:10
And so every few weeks teachers could sit down
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Svakih nekoliko nedelja nastavnici bi mogli da se okupe
17:13
and say, "OK, here's a little clip of something I thought I did well.
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i porazgovaraju: "OK, ovo je snimak situacije za koju mislim da sam je dobro izneo.
17:16
Here's a little clip of something I think I did poorly.
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Ovo je snimak nečega što mislim da sam loše uradio.
17:19
Advise me -- when this kid acted up, how should I have dealt with that?"
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Dajte mi savet -- kada se ovo dete ovako ponelo, kako je trebalo da postupim?"
17:22
And they could all sit and work together on those problems.
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Tako da bi svi mogli zajedno da rade na tim problemima.
17:26
You can take the very best teachers and kind of annotate it,
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Možete proglasiti najbolje nastavnike,
17:30
have it so everyone sees who is the very best at teaching this stuff.
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tako da svako zna ko su najbolji nastavnici među osobljem.
17:34
You can take those great courses and make them available
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Možete učiniti ta divna predavanja dostupnim
17:36
so that a kid could go out and watch the physics course, learn from that.
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tako da dete može da pogleda predavanje iz fizike i uči sa tih snimaka.
17:41
If you have a kid who's behind,
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Ukoliko neko dete zaostaje sa gradivom
17:43
you would know you could assign them that video to watch and review the concept.
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znali biste da možete da mu date domaći da odgleda predavanje i sagleda koncept problema.
17:47
And in fact, these free courses could not only be available just on the Internet,
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U principu, ta besplatna predavanja ne moraju bit dostupna samo na internetu,
17:51
but you could make it so that DVDs were always available,
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možete narezati i DVD
17:55
and so anybody who has access to a DVD player can have the very best teachers.
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tako da svako ko ima pristup DVD čitaču može imati najbolje nastavnike.
18:02
And so by thinking of this as a personnel system,
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Ukoliko na to gledate kao na sistem osoblja,
18:07
we can do it much better.
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mogli bismo da ga učinimo mnogo boljim.
18:09
Now there's a book actually, about KIPP --
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Postoji jedna knjiga, koja govori o ZJM --
18:11
the place that this is going on --
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to je mesto gde se sve ovo dešava --
18:13
that Jay Matthews, a news reporter, wrote -- called, "Work Hard, Be Nice."
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koju je Džej Metjus, novinar, nazvao "Marljivo radi i budi fin".
18:18
And I thought it was so fantastic.
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Pomislio sam da je zaista fantastična knjiga.
18:20
It gave you a sense of what a good teacher does.
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Daje vam osećaj šta to radi dobar učitelj.
18:24
I'm going to send everyone here a free copy of this book.
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Ja ću svakoj osobi koja je ovde prisutna poslati besplatan primerak knjige.
18:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
18:32
Now, we put a lot of money into education,
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Uložili smo mnogo para u obrazovanje,
18:35
and I really think that education is the most important thing to get right
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i ja zaista smatram da je obrazovanje najznačajnija stvar koja omogućava
18:41
for the country to have as strong a future as it should have.
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državi da dođe do onoliko snažne budućnosti koliko je to potrebno.
18:46
In fact we have in the stimulus bill -- it's interesting --
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U principu to je bilo navedeno u predlogu budžeta,
18:48
the House version actually had money in it for these data systems,
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tako da je inicijalna verzija plana predlagala pare za uspostavljanje te baze podataka,
18:51
and it was taken out in the Senate
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ali je to izbačeno iz plana u Senatu
18:53
because there are people who are threatened by these things.
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jer su neki ljudi tamo uplašeni ovim promenama.
18:56
But I -- I'm optimistic.
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Ali ja sam optimista.
18:58
I think people are beginning to recognize how important this is,
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Mislim da ljudi počinju da uviđaju koliko je ovo važno
19:02
and it really can make a difference for millions of lives, if we get it right.
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i to može promeniti milione života, ukoliko se uradi na pravi način.
19:09
I only had time to frame those two problems.
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Imao sam dovoljno vremena da pričam o ova dva problema.
19:12
There's a lot more problems like that --
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Postoji mnogo više takvih problema --
19:14
AIDS, pneumonia -- I can just see you're getting excited,
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sida, pneumonija -- već vidim kako postajete zainteresovani
19:18
just at the very name of these things.
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na sam spomen imena ovih problema.
19:21
And the skill sets required to tackle these things are very broad.
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Skup veština koji je neophodan kako bismo rešili te probleme je veoma širok.
19:26
You know, the system doesn't naturally make it happen.
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Znate, sistem u principu ne čini da se to prirodno rešava.
19:29
Governments don't naturally pick these things in the right way.
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Vlade nekao ne prilaze spontano ovim pitanjima na pravi način.
19:34
The private sector doesn't naturally put its resources into these things.
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Privatne kompanije ne ulažu spontano svoja sredstva u rešavanje ovih problema.
19:38
So it's going to take brilliant people like you
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Tako da je neophodno da brilijantni ljudi poput vas
19:41
to study these things, get other people involved --
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počnu da se bave ovim problemima, da uključe druge --
19:44
and you're helping to come up with solutions.
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i da počnu da pomažu da se dođe do rešenja.
19:47
And with that, I think there's some great things that will come out of it.
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Mislim da ćemo tako doći do izvrsnih rešenja.
19:50
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
19:52
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com