TED2010
Michael Specter: The danger of science denial
Majkl Spekter: Opasnost poricanja nauke
Filmed:
Readability: 3
2,161,284 views
Tvrdnje da vakcine izazivaju autizam, zabrana "Frankenhrane" ("Frankenfood"), pomama za biljnim lekovima: sve to ukazuje na rastući strah (i često otvoreno poricanje) javnosti od nauke i razuma, kaže Majkl Spekter (Michael Specter). On upozorava da ovo može dovesti do propasti ljudskog napretka.
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
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Hajde da se pravimo da ovde imamo mašinu,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
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veliku mašinu, kul TED-astu mašinu,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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koja je vremeplov.
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
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I svi iz ove prostorije moraju da uđu u nju.
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
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I možete ići nazad, možete ići napred;
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
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ne možete ostati gde ste.
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
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Pitam se šta biste izabrali, jer u poslednje vreme često
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
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postavljam ovo pitanje svojim prijateljima i svi žele da se vrate nazad.
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
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Ne znam. Žele da odu nazad pre nego što je bilo automobila
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
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ili Twittera ili emisije "Američki idol".
00:37
I don't know.
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Ne znam.
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
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Ubeđen sam da postoji nešto što nas vuče
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
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u nostalgiju, u maštanje.
00:43
And I understand that.
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I razumem to.
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
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Nisam deo te gomile, moram priznati.
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
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Ne želim da se vratim i to ne zato što sam avanturista -
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
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nego zato što mogućnosti na ovoj planeti
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
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ne idu unazad, idu napred.
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
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Dakle, želim da uđem u vremeplov i odem napred.
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
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Ovo je do sada najbolje vreme na ovoj planeti
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
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po bilo kom kriterijumu koji odaberete:
01:02
health, wealth,
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zdravlju, bogatstvu,
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
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pokretljivosti, šansama,
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
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opadajućoj stopi bolesti.
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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Nikada nije bilo ovakvo vreme.
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
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Moji pradede i prababe su svi umrli
01:12
by the time they were 60.
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do svojih šezdesetih.
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
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Moji babe i dede su pomerili taj broj do 70.
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
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Moji roditelji se približavaju osamdesetim.
01:18
So there better be
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Bolje da bude broj
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
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9 na početku broja mojih godina smrti.
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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Ali ne radi se ni o ljudima kao što smo mi,
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
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jer ovo je mnogo veće od toga.
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
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Dete rođeno danas u Nju Delhiju
01:31
can expect to live as long as
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može očekivati da će živeti isto
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
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koliko i najbogatiji čovek sveta pre 100 godina.
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
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Razmislite o tome. To je neverovatna činjenica.
01:37
And why is it true?
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A zašto je to istina?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
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Boginje. Boginje su ubile milijarde
01:41
of people on this planet.
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ljudi na ovoj planeti.
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
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Preoblikovale su demografsku sliku planete
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
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kao nijedan rat.
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
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Nestale su. Nema ih.
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
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Pobedili smo ih. Puf.
01:51
In the rich world,
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U bogatom svetu,
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
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bolesti koje su pretile milionima ljudi samo pre jedne generacije
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
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više ne postoje, skoro uopšte.
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
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difterija, rubeola, poliomielitis...
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
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zna li neko uopšte šta su te stvari?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
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Vakcine, moderna medicina,
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
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naša sposobnost da nahranimo milijarde ljudi,
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
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to su dostignuća naučnih metoda.
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
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Po mom mišljenju, naučni metod,
02:12
trying stuff out,
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isprobavanje stvari,
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
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proveravanje da li rade, menjanje kad ne rade,
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
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to je jedno od najvećih dostignuća čovečanstva.
02:19
So that's the good news.
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Dakle, to su dobre vesti.
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
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Nažalost, to je sve od dobrih vesti
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
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jer postoje neki drugi problemi, koji su pominjani mnogo puta,
02:26
And one of them is that
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a jedan je od njih je taj
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
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da uprkos mnogim dostignućima,
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
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milijarda ljudi na svetu ide
02:32
in this world every day.
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na spavanje gladna, svakog dana.
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
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Taj broj raste i raste veoma brzo i to je sramota.
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
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I ne samo to, iskoristili smo maštu
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
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da temeljno uništimo ovu planetu.
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
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Vodovod, obradiva zemlja,
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
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prašume, nafta, gas:
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
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oni nestaju i nestaće uskoro
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
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i ukoliko ne izmislimo izlaz iz tog haosa
02:52
we're going away too.
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i mi ćemo nestati.
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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Znači, pitanje je: Možemo li mi to? Ja mislim da možemo.
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
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Mislim da je očigledno da možemo da napravimo hranu
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
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koja će nahraniti milijarde ljudi, bez silovanja zemlje na kojoj žive.
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
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Mislim da možemo da snabdemo svet energijom
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
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koja ga u isto vreme ne uništava.
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
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Zaista verujem u to i ne, to nije maštanje.
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
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Ali postoji nešto što me drži budnim noću -
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
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jedna od stvari koje me drže budnim.
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
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Nikada nam napredak u nauci nije bio potrebniji nego sada,
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
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a isto tako nismo nikada bili u poziciji
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
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da je razvijemo na pravi način, kao što smo danas.
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
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Na ivici smo neverovatnih događaja
03:26
in many fields,
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na mnogim poljima.
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
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Ali opet, mislim da bismo morali da se vratimo
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
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nazad stotinama godina, 300 godina, pre prosvetiteljstva,
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
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da nađemo vreme kada smo se borili sa napretkom,
03:36
when we fought about these things
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kada smo se borili za ove stvari
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
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energičnije, na više frontova, nego što to činimo danas.
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
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Ljudi toliko urone u svoja uverenja
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
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i to tako snažno da ih ne možete osloboditi.
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
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Ni istina ih ne može osloboditi.
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
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I slušajte, svako ima prava na svoje mišljenje;
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
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čak i svoje mišljenje o napretku,
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
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ali znate na šta nemate prava?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
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Nemate prava na sopstvene činjenice. Žao mi je, nemate.
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
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Bilo mi je potrebno vremena da ovo shvatim.
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
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Pre nekih deset godina, pisao sam o vakcinama
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
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kratku priču, za "New Yorker".
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
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I bio sam zapanjen protivljenjima
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
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nečemu što je ipak
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
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najefektnija mera javnog zdravlja u ljudskoj istoriji.
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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Nisam znao šta da radim,
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
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pa sam uradio što i radim, napisao priču i nastavio.
04:17
And soon after that,
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Ubrzo posle toga
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
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napisao sam priču o genetski modifikovanoj hrani.
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
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Ista stvar, samo veća.
04:24
People were going crazy.
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Ljudi su ludeli.
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
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Pa sam i o tome napisao priču
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
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i nisam mogao da razumem zašto
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
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su ljudi mislili da je to "frankenhrana",
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why they thought moving molecules around
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zašto misle da je razmeštanje molekula
04:34
in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
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na određen, a ne na slučajan način,
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
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prelaženje granica prirode.
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
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Ali, znate, ja radim ono što radim. Napisao sam priču, nastavio sam.
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
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Mislim, ja sam novinar;
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
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mi kucamo, sačuvamo, odemo na večeru, sve je super.
04:47
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
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Ali te priče mi nisu dale mira,
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
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nisam mogao da shvatim zašto, ali na kraju sam shvatio.
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
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A to je zato što ti fanatici koji su me izluđivali
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
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ustvari uopšte nisu fanatici.
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
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To su brižni ljudi, obrazovani, pristojni.
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
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Jednaki ljudima iz ove prostorije.
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
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To me je mnogo uznemiravalo...
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
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ali onda sam pomislio, budimo iskreni:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
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nalazimo se u momentu
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
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u kome nemamo isti odnos prema napretku kao što smo imali.
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
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Pričamo o tome sa ambivalencijom.
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
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Pričamo o tome ironično, sa navodnicima:
05:20
"progress."
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"Napredak".
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
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OK, postoje razlozi za to i mislim da znamo koji su.
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
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Izgubili smo veru u institucije,
05:28
in authority,
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u autoritet,
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
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ponekad i u samu nauku,
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
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i zašto i ne bismo.
05:34
You can just say a few names
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Možete navesti nekoliko imena
05:36
and people will understand.
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i ljudi će razumeti.
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
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Černobil, Bopal, "Challenger",
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
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Vioxx (lek za artritis), oružje masovnog uništenja,
05:44
hanging chads.
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birački listići.
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
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Mislim, možete sami napraviti svoju listu.
05:49
There are questions and problems
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Postoje pitanja i problemi
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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u vezi s ljudima za koje smo mislili da su uvek u pravu.
05:53
so be skeptical.
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Pa budite skeptični.
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
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Postavljajte pitanja, zahtevajte dokaze, zahtevajte činjenice.
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
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Ne uzimajte ništa zdravo za gotovo.
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
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Ali stvar je u sledećem: kada dobijete dokaz,
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
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morate ga prihvatiti, a u tome nismo baš tako dobri.
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
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Ovo govorim iz razloga što se
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
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sada nalazimo u epidemiji straha
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
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kakvu nikada nisam video i nadam se da više neću ni videti.
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
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Pre oko 12 godina objavljena je priča,
06:16
a horrible story,
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užasna priča,
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
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koja je povezala epidemiju autizma
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
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sa vakcinom protiv malih boginja, zauški i rubeole.
06:24
Very scary.
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Veoma strašno.
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
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Gomile studija je urađeno da se proveri istinitost ovoga.
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
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Trebalo je uraditi mnogo studija; ovo je ozbiljna stvar.
06:32
The data came back.
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Stigli su podaci.
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
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Stigli su podaci iz Sjedinjenih Država, iz Engleske,
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
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Švedske, Kanade
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
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i svi su bili isti, nema korelacije,
06:40
no connection, none at all.
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ne postoji uopšte nikakva veza.
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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To nije bitno. Nije bitno
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
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jer mi verujemo u anegdote,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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verujemo u ono što vidimo, u ono što mislimo da vidimo,
06:48
what makes us feel real.
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što čini da se osećamo stvarno.
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
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Ne verujemo u gomile dokumenata
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
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u kojima nam vladini službenici daju podatke
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
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i to zaista razumem, mislim da svi razumemo.
06:56
But you know what?
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Ali znate šta?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
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Rezultat toga je katastrofalan,
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
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katastrofalan, jer evo činjenice:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
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Sjedinjene Države su jedna od malo država na svetu
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
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u kojoj stopa vakcinacije protiv malih boginja opada.
07:08
That is disgraceful,
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To je sramota
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
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i trebalo bi da se stidimo sebe.
07:12
It's horrible.
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To je užasno.
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
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Šta se desilo
07:16
that we could do that?
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pa da uradimo to.
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
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Ja to razumem. Zaista razumem.
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
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Jer, da li neko ovde ima boginje?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
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Da li je neko iz ove publike video da je neko umro od boginja?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
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To se ne dešava baš mnogo.
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
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U ovoj zemlji se uopšte ne dešava,
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
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ali desilo se 160 000 puta u svetu prošle godine.
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
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To je mnogo smrti od boginja,
07:34
20 an hour.
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20 na sat.
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
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Ali pošto se nije desilo ovde, možemo da ne mislimo na to,
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
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a ljudi kao Dženi Mekarti
07:41
can go around preaching messages
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mogu da idu okolo i šire poruke
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
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straha i neznanja sa mesta
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
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kao što su "Opra" ili "Leri King Uživo".
07:48
And they can do it because
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A to mogu da rade jer
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
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ne povezuju uzročnost i korelaciju.
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
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Ne razumeju da ove stvari izgledaju isto,
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
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ali skoro nikada nisu iste.
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
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I to je nešto što moramo da naučimo i to vrlo brzo.
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
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Ovaj momak je bio heroj, Džonas Salk.
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
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On je uklonio jednu od najvećih muka čovečanstva.
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
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Nema straha, agonije, poliomielitis - puf, nestao.
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
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Taj lik u sredini i nije toliko uspeo.
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
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Zove se Pol Ofit.
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
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On je sa gomilom drugih ljudi samo pronašao vakcinu za rotavirus.
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
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To spašava živote 400, 500 000 dece
08:19
in the developing world every year.
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u zemljama u razvoju svake godine.
08:21
Pretty good, right?
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Prilično dobro, zar ne?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
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Pa dobro je, ali Pol ide okolo i priča o vakcinama
08:25
and says how valuable they are
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i o tome koliko su vredne
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
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i da bi ljudi trebalo da prestanu s kukanjem.
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
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To kaže baš na taj način.
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
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Dakle, Pol je terorista.
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
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Kada Pol govori na javnom saslušanju,
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
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ne može da svedoči bez naoružanih čuvara.
08:38
He gets called at home
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Zovu ga kući
08:40
because people like to tell him
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jer ljudi vole da mu kažu
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
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da znaju gde njegova deca idu u školu.
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
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A zašto? Jer je Pol napravio vakcinu.
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
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Ne moram ovo da kažem, ali vakcine su potrebne.
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
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Ako ih ukinete, bolesti se vrate,
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
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užasne bolesti i to se dešava.
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
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Sada u ovoj zemlji imamo boginje.
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
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I pogoršava se i uskoro će deca
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
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opet početi da umiru od njih jer je to igra brojeva.
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
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I neće umreti samo od boginja.
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
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Šta je sa poliom? Uzmimo i to. Što da ne?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
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Jedna koleginica sa fakulteta mi je pisala pre par nedelja
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
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i rekla je da sam malo kreštav.
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
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Niko to pre nije rekao.
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
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Ona nije nameravala da vakciniše svoje dete protiv polia.
09:15
no way.
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Nema šanse.
09:17
Fine.
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Dobro.
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
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Zašto? Zato što toga nema kod nas. I znate šta?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
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Nije ga bilo juče.
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
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Danas, ne znam, možda je neki tip jutros seo u avion u Lagosu
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
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i sleteće na LAX (Los Anđeles), upravo sada je iznad Ohaja.
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
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Sleteće za nekoliko sati, iznajmiti auto
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
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i doći će u Long Bič
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
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i prisustvovaće jednoj od ovih divnih TED večera večeras.
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
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I on ne zna da je inficiran parališućom bolešću,
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
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a ne znamo ni mi, jer svet tako funkcioniše.
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
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Na takvoj planeti živimo. Ne pretvarajte se da nije tako.
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
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Sad, mi volimo da umotavamo u laži. Obožavamo.
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
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Da li ste svi uzeli vitamine jutros?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
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Malo antioksidanta,
09:53
to get you going.
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da vas pokrenu?
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
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Znam da jeste, jer pola Amerikanaca ih uzima svakog dana.
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
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Uzimaju te stvari i uzimaju alternativne lekove,
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
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nebitno koliko puta
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
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otkrijemo da su beskorisni.
10:05
The data says it all the time.
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Podaci to stalno govore.
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
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Oni potamnjuju vaš urin. Skoro nikad ne rade više od toga.
10:10
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
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U redu je, ako želite da plaćate 28 milijardi dolara za taman urin,
10:15
I'm totally with you.
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potpuno vas podržavam.
10:17
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
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Taman urin. Taman.
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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Zašto to radimo? Zašto to radimo?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
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Pa, mislim da razumem, mrzimo velike farmaceute.
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
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Mrzimo veliku vladu. Ne verujemo čoveku.
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
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I ne bi ni trebalo. Naš zdravstveni sistem je loš.
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
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Surov je prema milionima ljudi.
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
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Potpuno je zaprepašćujuće hladan
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
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i surov prema nama koji možemo da ga priuštimo.
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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Tako da onda bežimo od njega, a gde bežimo?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
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Skačemo u ruke velikog placeba.
10:44
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
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To je fantastično. Obožavam veliki placebo.
10:49
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
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Ali znate, to je ozbiljna stvar,
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
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jer te stvari su sranje,
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
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a mi trošimo milione dolara na to.
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
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Imam svakakve stvari ovde.
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
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Ništa od toga - ginko, podvala,
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
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biljni lek protiv gripe, podvala,
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
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akai, ne znam ni šta je to
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
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ali trošimo milijarde dolara na njega, to je podvala.
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
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I znate šta? Kada to kažem ljudi viču na mene,
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
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i kažu, "Šta tebe briga? Pusti ljude da rade šta žele,
11:18
It makes them feel good."
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osećaju se dobro zbog toga."
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
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I znate šta? Niste u pravu.
11:22
Because I don't care
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Jer ne zanima me
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
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i da je sekretar za zdravstvo
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
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taj koji kaže, "Hmm, neću poslušati dokaze
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
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svojih stručnjaka za mamograme",
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
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ili neki šarlatan za rak koji želi da leči svog pacijenta
11:34
with coffee enemas.
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klistirom od kafe.
11:36
When you start down the road
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Kada krenete putem
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
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na kom verovanja i magija zamenjuju dokaze i nauku,
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
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završite na mestu gde ne želite da budete.
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
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Završite u Tabo Mbeki u Južnoj Africi.
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
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On je ubio 400 000 ljudi svog naroda
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
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insistirajući da su koren repe,
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
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beli luk i ulje od limuna
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
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mnogo efektniji nego antiretrovirus
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
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za koji znamo da može da uspori tok SIDE.
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
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Stotine hiljada bespotrebnih smrti
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
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u zemlji koja je zaražena
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
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ovom bolešću više nego ijedna druga.
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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Molim vas nemojte mi reći
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
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da nema posledica ovakvih stvari.
12:07
There are. There always are.
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Ima ih. Uvek ih ima.
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
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Sad, najbezumnija epidemija
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
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u kojoj se trenutno nalazimo
12:13
is this absurd battle
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je ova apsurdna borba
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
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između zagovornika genetski modifikovane hrane
12:18
and the organic elite.
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i elite organske hrane.
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
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To je idiotska rasprava. Mora da prestane.
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
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To je rasprava o rečima, o metaforama.
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
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To je ideologija, ne nauka.
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
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Svaku stvar koju jedemo, svako zrno pirinča,
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
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svaki listić peršuna,
12:31
every Brussels sprout
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svaki prokelj
12:33
has been modified by man.
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je čovek već izmenio.
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
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Znate, u rajskom vrtu nisu postojale mandarine.
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
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Nisu postojale dinje.
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
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Nije bilo božićnih jelki. Mi smo sve to napravili.
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
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Napravili smo sve to u toku poslednjih 11.000 godina.
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
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Nešto je uspelo, nešto nije.
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
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Otarasili smo se stvari koje nisu uspele.
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
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Sada to možemo da činimo još preciznije.
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
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Postoje rizici, naravno.
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
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Ali možemo staviti A vitamin u pirinač
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
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i to može pomoći milionima ljudi,
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
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milionima ljudi može produžiti život.
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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Ne želite to da radite?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
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Moram reći da ne razumem.
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
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Protivimo se genetskom modifikovanju hrane.
13:09
Why do we do that?
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Zašto to činimo?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
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Pa, stvari koje stalno čujem su:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
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previše hemikalija,
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
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pesticidi, hormoni,
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
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monokulture, ne želimo ogromna polja
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
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iste stvati, to je pogrešno.
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
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Ne želimo da kompanije patentiraju život.
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
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Ne želimo da kompanije poseduju semena.
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
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I znate koji je moj odgovor na sve to?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
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Da, u pravu ste. Hajde da to popravimo.
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
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Istina je, imamo ogroman problem sa hranom,
13:32
but this isn't science.
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ali ovo nije nauka.
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
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To nema nikakve veze sa naukom.
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
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To je zakon, moral, stvar patenta.
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
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Znate nauka nije neka kompanija.
13:41
It's not a country.
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To nije država.
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
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Nije čak ni ideja; to je proces.
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
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To je proces i nekada uspeva, nekada ne,
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
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ali ideja da ne treba da dozvolimo
13:52
science to do its job
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da nauka radi svoj posao
13:54
because we're afraid,
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jer se bojimo,
13:56
is really very deadening,
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je stvarno vrlo zamorna
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
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i sprečava da milioni ljudi
14:00
from prospering.
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napreduju.
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
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Znate, u narednih 50 godina
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
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moraćemo da gajimo 70% više hrane nego sada,
14:07
70 percent.
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70%.
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
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Ovo je ulaganje u Afriku u poslednjih 30 godina.
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
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Sramotno. Sramotno.
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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Njima je to potrebno, a mi im ne dajemo.
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
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Zašto? Genetski modifikovana hrana.
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
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Ne želimo da podstičemo ljude
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
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da jedu te užasne stvari, kao što je maniok na primer.
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
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Maniok je nešto što jede pola milijarde ljudi.
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
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Liči na krompir.
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
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Samo gomila kalorija. Odvratno je.
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
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Nema ništa hranljivo, proteine,
14:32
and scientists are engineering
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a naučnici upravo
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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ubacuju sve to unutra.
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
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I onda će ljudi moći to da jedu, a da ne oslepe.
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
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Neće gladovati, i znate šta?
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
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To bi bilo lepo. Ne bi bilo "Chez Panisse" (restoran)
14:44
but it would be nice.
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ali bi bilo lepo.
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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I sve što ja imam da kažem o tome je:
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
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Zašto se borimo protiv toga?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
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Mislim, zapitajmo se: Zašto se opiremo tome?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
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Zato što ne želimo da premeštamo gene?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
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Ovde se radi o pomeranju gena. Ne radi se o hemikalijama.
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
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Ne radi se o našoj smešnoj strasti za hormonima,
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
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našem nastojanju da imamo veću hranu,
15:04
better food, singular food.
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bolju hranu, jedinstvenu hranu.
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
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Ne radi se o pahuljicama,
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
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radi se o održavanju ljudi u životu,
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
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i o vremenu kad smo počeli da razumevamo šta to znači.
15:13
Because, you know something?
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Jer, znate šta?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
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Ako nastavimo da se ponašamo kako se ponašamo,
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
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bićemo krivi za nešto za šta mislim da ne želimo da budemo krivi,
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
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tehničku kolonizaciju.
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
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Ne postoji drugačiji način da se opiše ono što se dešava.
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
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Sebično je, ružno je,
15:27
it's beneath us,
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to je ispod našeg nivoa
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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i zaista moramo to da zaustavimo.
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
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Dakle, posle ove neverovatno zabavne prezentacije,
15:35
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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možda ćete poželeti da kažete, "Znači, i dalje želiš da
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
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se ukrcaš u taj smešni vremeplov i ideš napred?"
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
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Apsolutno. Apsolutno, želim.
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
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Trenutno je zaglavljen u sadašnjosti,
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
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ali imamo neverovatnu mogućnost.
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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Možemo podesiti taj vremeplov na šta god želimo.
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
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Možemo ga pomerati gde god želimo,
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
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i pomerićemo ga gde želimo.
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
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Moramo imati ovakve razgovore i moramo misliti,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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ali kada uđemo u vremeplov i krenemo napred
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
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bićemo srećni zbog toga.
16:03
I know that we can,
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Znam da možemo
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
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i što se mene tiče,
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
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to je nešto što je svetu potrebno upravo sada.
16:10
(Applause)
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Hvala vam.
16:12
Thank you.
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(aplauz)
16:15
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - WriterMichael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.
Why you should listen
Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Lives, dives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.
Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com