TED2010
Michael Specter: The danger of science denial
Michael Specter: Opasnost poricanja znanosti
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Tvrdnje o povezanosti cjepiva s autizmom, zabrane "Frankenstein-hrane", pomama za biljnim lijekovima: Sve su to razlozi rasta javnog straha (i, često, potpunog nijekanja) znanosti i razuma, kaže Michael Specter. Upozorava kako taj trend nagoviještava katastrofu ljudskom napretku.
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
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Pretvarajmo se da upravo ovdje imamo stroj,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
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velik stroj, cool, TED-ovski stroj,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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i to je vremenski stroj.
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
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I svi u ovoj prostoriji moraju ući u njega.
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
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Možete otići natrag, možete ići naprijed;
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
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ali ne možete ostati gdje jeste.
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
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Pitam se što bi izabrali, jer sam pitao svoje prijatelje
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
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ovo pitanje često u zadnje vrijeme, i svi se žele vratiti natrag.
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
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Ne znam. Žele se vratiti u vrijeme prije automobila
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
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ili Twittera ili "Američkog idola."
00:37
I don't know.
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Ne znam.
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
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Uvjeren sam kako postoji privlačenje
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
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nostalgiji, poželjnom razmišljanju.
00:43
And I understand that.
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I razumijem to.
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
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Nisam dio te skupine, moram reći.
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
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Ne želim se vratiti natrag, i nije to zato što sam pustolovan --
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
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već zbog mogućnosti na ovom planetu,
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
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koje se ne vraćaju natrag, one idu naprijed.
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
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Zato želim ući u stroj, i želim otići naprijed.
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
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Ovo je najbolje doba koje je ikada bilo na ovom planetu
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
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po svim mjerilima koje izaberemo:
01:02
health, wealth,
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zdravlju, bogatstvu,
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
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pokretljivosti, mogućnostima,
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
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opadajućim stopama bolesti.
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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Nikad nije bilo vrijeme kao ovo.
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
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Moji pradjedovi su umrli, svi oni,
01:12
by the time they were 60.
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do šezdesete godine.
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
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Moji djedovi i bake su gurnuli taj broj do 70.
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
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Moji roditelji završavaju s 80.
01:18
So there better be
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Tako da je bolje da postoji
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
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znamenka 9 na početku godina moje smrti.
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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Ali nije riječ o ljudima poput nas
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
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jer postoje veće stvari od toga.
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
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Dijete rođeno u New Delhiu danas
01:31
can expect to live as long as
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može očekivati živjeti dugo koliko i
01:33
the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
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najbogatiji čovjek u svijetu prije 100 godina.
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
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Razmislite o tome. To je nevjerojatna činjenica.
01:37
And why is it true?
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I zašto je istinita?
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
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Boginje. Boginje su ubile milijune
01:41
of people on this planet.
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ljudi na ovom planetu.
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
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Preoblikovale su demografiju planeta
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
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na način na koji to nije učinio nijedan rat.
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
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Nema ih više. Nestale su.
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
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Svladali smo ih. Puf.
01:51
In the rich world,
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U bogatom svijetu,
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
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bolesti koje su prijetile milijunima nas samo generaciju ranije
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
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više ne postoje, gotovo.
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
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Difterija, rubeola, dječja paraliza...
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
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zna li itko uopće što su ove stvari?
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
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Cjepiva, moderna medicina,
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
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naša sposobnost da nahranimo milijarde ljudi,
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
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to su uspjesi znanstvene metode.
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
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I za mene, znanstvena metoda,
02:12
trying stuff out,
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isprobavanje stvari,
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
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gledanje je li rade, mjenjanje kada ne rade,
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
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je jedno od najvećih postignuća našeg čovječanstva.
02:19
So that's the good news.
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To su dobre vijesti.
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
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Nažalost, to su sve dobre vijesti
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
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jer imamo neke druge probleme, i spomenuti su puno puta,
02:26
And one of them is that
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i jedan od njih je,
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
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unatoč svim našim postignućima,
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
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milijarda ljudi odlazi u krevet gladna svaku večer
02:32
in this world every day.
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na ovom svijetu, svakog dana.
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
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Taj broj raste, raste vrlo ubrzano, i to je sramotno.
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
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I ne samo to, koristili smo našu maštu
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
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da potpuno zagadimo planetu.
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
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Pitka voda, plodna zemlja,
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
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prašume, nafta, plin:
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
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oni nestaju, i nestaju vrlo brzo,
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
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i ako ne smislimo izlaz iz ovog nereda,
02:52
we're going away too.
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mi nestajemo također.
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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Tako da je pitanje: Možemo li mi to? Ja mislim da možemo.
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
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Mislim da je jasno da možemo napraviti hranu
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
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koja će nahraniti milijarde ljudi bez uništavanja zemlje na kojoj žive.
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
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Mislim da možemo opskrbiti ovaj svijet energijom
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
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koja ga također ne uništava.
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
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I zaista vjerujem da, i ne, nije to puka želja.
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
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Ali tu je još jedna stvar koja me drži budnim noću --
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
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jedna od stvari koje me drže budnim noću.
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
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Nikad nismo trebali znanstveni napredak kao sada, nikad
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
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i također nikad nismo bili u poziciji
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
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da ga pravilno razvijemo na način na koji možemo danas.
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
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Na rubu smo zapanjujućih, zapanjujućih događanja
03:26
in many fields,
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u mnogim poljima.
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
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Ali ipak, mislim da se zapravo trebamo vratiti natrag
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
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stotine, 300 godina, prije prosvjetiteljstva,
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
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kako bi našli vrijeme kada smo se morali boriti za napredak,
03:36
when we fought about these things
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kada smo se borili za te stvari
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
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snažnije, na više fronti, nego što mi radimo danas.
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
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Ljudi se umotaju u svoja vjerovanja,
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
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i to učine tako čvrsto da ih ne možeš osloboditi.
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
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Niti ih istina neće učiniti slobodnima.
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
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I, slušajte, svakom je dano pravo na mišljenje;
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
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i čak su im dana prava na mišljenje o napretku,
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
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ali znate li na što nemate pravo?
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
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Nemate pravo na vaše osobne činjenice. Žao mi je, nemate.
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
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I trebalo mi je vremena da shvatim ovo.
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
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Desetljeće ranije, napisao sam priču o cjepivima
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
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za "The New Yorker", malu priču.
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
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I bio sam zapanjen što sam našao protivnike,
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
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otpor onome što je, na kraju,
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
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ipak najučinkovitija mjera javnog zdravstva u ljudskog povijesti.
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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Nisam znao što činiti,
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
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tako da sam učinio ono što radim, napisao priču i nastavio dalje.
04:17
And soon after that,
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I ubrzo nakon toga,
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
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Napisao sam priču o genetski modificiranoj hrani.
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
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Ista stvar, samo veća.
04:24
People were going crazy.
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Ljudi su bili poludjeli.
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
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Napisao sam priču i o tome,
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
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i nisam mogao shvatiti zašto
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
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su ljudi mislili da je to "Frankenstein-hrana",
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
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zašto su mislili da je pomicanje molekula
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in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
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na točno određen način, radije nego na slučajan način,
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
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neovlašteni prijelaz na polje prirode.
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
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Ali, znate, radim što radim. Napisao sam priču i nastavio dalje.
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
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Mislim, novinar sam;
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
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Mi tipkamo, stavimo u arhiv, odemo na večeru i u redu je.
04:47
(Laughter)
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--
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
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Ali ove priče su me uznemirivale,
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
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nisam mogao shvatiti zašto, ali naposlijetku jesam.
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
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I to je zato što ti fanatici koji su me izluđivali
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
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uopće nisu bili fanatici.
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
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Oni su bili pažljivi ljudi, obrazovani ljudi, pristojni ljudi.
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
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Bili su potpuno jednaki ljudima u ovoj sobi.
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
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I to je ono što me toliko uznemirivalo...
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
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ali tada sam pomislio, znate, budimo iskreni:
05:11
We're at a point in this world
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Mi se nalazimo u trenutku na ovom svijetu
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
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kada više nemamo isti odnos prema napretku kao nekada.
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
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Govorimo o njemu neodlučno.
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
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Govorimo o njemu u ironičnim pojmovima s malim navodnicima oko riječi:
05:20
"progress."
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"Napredak."
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
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U redu, postoje razlozi za to, i mislim da znamo koji su to razlozi.
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
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Izgubili smo vjeru u institucije,
05:28
in authority,
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u autoritete,
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
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i ponekad u samu znanost,
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
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i nema razloga zašto nismo trebali.
05:34
You can just say a few names
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Možete reći samo nekoliko imena
05:36
and people will understand.
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i ljudi će razumjeti.
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
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Černobil, Bhopal, Challenger,
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
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Vioxx, oružja masovnog uništenja,
05:44
hanging chads.
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--
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
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Mislim, znate, možete izabrati svoj popis.
05:49
There are questions and problems
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Postoje pitanja i problemi
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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s ljudima za koje smo vjerovali da su uvijek u pravu.
05:53
so be skeptical.
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Zato budite skeptični.
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
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Postavljajte pitanja, zahtijevajte odgovore, zahtijevajte dokaze.
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
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Ne uzimajte ništa zdravo za gotovo.
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
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Ali tu je poanta: Kada dobijete dokaz,
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
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trebate ga prihvatiti, a mi nismo tako dobri u tome.
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
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I razlog zbog kojeg to mogu reći je taj što
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
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sada vlada epidemija straha
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
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kakvu nikad nisam vidio i nadam se da je nikad više neću vidjeti.
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
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Prije 12 godina, objavljena je priča,
06:16
a horrible story,
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strašna priča,
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
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koja je povezivala epidemiju autizma
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
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sa cjepivima za boginje, zaušnjake i rubeolu.
06:24
Very scary.
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Jako strašno.
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
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Mnoštvo studija je napravljeno kako bi se vidjelo je li ovo istina.
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
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Mnoštvo studija se i trebalo napraviti; ovo je ozbiljna tema.
06:32
The data came back.
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Podaci su došli natrag.
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
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Podaci su došli iz SAD-a, Engleske,
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
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Švedske, Kanade,
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
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i svi su bili isti, nema korelacije,
06:40
no connection, none at all.
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nema povezanosti, baš nikakve.
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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To nije važno. To nije važno
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
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jer mi vjerujemo anegdotama,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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mi vjerujmo onome što vidimo, što misilimo da vidimo,
06:48
what makes us feel real.
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što nas čini da se osjećamo stvarnima.
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
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Ne vjerujemo hrpi dokumenata
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
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od vladinog predstavnika koji nam daje podatke,
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
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i ja razumijem to, mislim da svi razumijemo.
06:56
But you know what?
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Ali znate to?
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
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Rezultati toga su bili katastrofalni,
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
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katastrofalni zbog ove činjenice:
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
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SAD je jedna od rijetkih zemalja svijeta
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
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gdje broj cjepljenih od ospica opada.
07:08
That is disgraceful,
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To je sramotno,
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
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i trebamo se sramiti nas samih.
07:12
It's horrible.
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To je užasno.
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
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Kakva stvar se bila dogodila
07:16
that we could do that?
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da smo to mogli učiniti.
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
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Sada, razumijem to. Zaista to razumijem.
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
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Jer, ima li itko ovdje ospice?
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
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Je li itko u publici ikada vidio nekog da je umro od ospica?
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
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Ne događa se često.
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
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U ovoj zemlji se ne događa uopće,
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
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ali dogodilo se 160,000 puta na svijetu prošle godine.
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
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To je mnogo smrti od ospica,
07:34
20 an hour.
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20 u jednom satu.
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
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Ali jer se nije dogodilo ovdje, možemo to izbaciti iz naših misli,
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
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i ljudi poput Jenny McCarthy
07:41
can go around preaching messages
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mogu ići okolo propovijedati poruke
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
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straha i nepismenosti iz medija
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
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poput Oprah i Larry King Livea.
07:48
And they can do it because
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I mogu to činiti jer
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
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ne povezuju uzrok i korelaciju.
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
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Ne razumiju da ove stvari izgledaju jednako,
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
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ali gotovo nikad nisu iste.
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
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I to je nešto što moramo naučiti, moramo to naučiti vrlo brzo.
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
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Ovaj čovjek je bio heroj, Jonas Salk.
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
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Uzeo je jednu od najgorih kazni čovječanstva od nas.
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
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Nema straha, nema patnje, dječja paraliza, puf, nestalo.
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
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Ovaj čovjek u sredini, ne baš toliko.
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
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Njegovo ime je Paul Offit.
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
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Upravo je razvio cjepivo za rotavirus s hrpom drugih ljudi.
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
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Spasilo je živote 400, 500,000 djece
08:19
in the developing world every year.
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u zemljama u razvoju svake godine.
08:21
Pretty good, right?
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Prilično dobro, zar ne?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
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Da, dobro je, osim što Paul ide okolo i priča o cjepivima.
08:25
and says how valuable they are
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i govori koliko su vrijedna
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
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i ljudi bi trebali jednostvano prestati grintati.
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
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I on to zaista kaže na taj način.
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
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Dakle, Paul je terorist.
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
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Kada Paul govori javno,
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
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ne može svjedočiti bez naoružanih stražara.
08:38
He gets called at home
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Nazivaju ga kući
08:40
because people like to tell him
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jer mu ljudi vole reći
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
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kako znaju gdje mu djeca idu u školu.
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
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I zašto. Jer je Paul napravio cjepivo.
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
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Ne trebam to reći, ali cjepiva su neophodna.
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
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Ako ih maknete, bolest se vraća,
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
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užasne bolesti, i to se događa
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
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Danas u ovoj zemlji imamo ospice
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
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I postaje sve gore, i vrlo brzo će djeca umirati od ospica
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
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i umirati će ponovno jer je to igra brojkama.
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
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I neće samo umirati od ospica.
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
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Što je s dječjom paralizom? Uzmimo to. Zašto ne?
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
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Kolegica s studija mi je pisala prije par tjedana i rekla
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
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kako je mislila da samo malo oštar.
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
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Nitko to dosad nije rekao.
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
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Ona nije planirala cjepiti djecu protiv dječje paralize.
09:15
no way.
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Nema šanse.
09:17
Fine.
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Dobro.
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
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Zašto? Zato što nemamo dječje paralize. Znate to?
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
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Nismo imali dječju paralizu u ovoj zemlji jučer.
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
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Danas, ne znam, možda je netko ušao u avion za Lagos jutros,
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
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i leti u LAX, upravo sada je preko Ohia.
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
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I sletjeti će za nekoliko sati, iznajmiti će auto,
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
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i otići će na Long Beach,
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
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i prisustvovati će nekoj od ovih nevjerojatnih TED večera .
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
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I on ne zna da je zaražen s paralitičkom bolesću,
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
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i mi također ne znamo jer tako svijet funkcionira.
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
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To je planet na kojem živimo. Nemojte se pretvarati da nije.
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
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Mi se volimo zamotati u laži. Volimo to činiti.
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
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Svatko je uzeo svoje vitamine jutros?
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
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Echinacea, mali antioksidans
09:53
to get you going.
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da vas pokrene.
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
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Znam da jeste jer pola Amerikanaca to čine svakog dana.
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
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Uzimaju stvari i uzimaju alternativne lijekove,
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
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i nije važno koliko često
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
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saznamo da su beskorisni.
10:05
The data says it all the time.
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Podaci na to ukazuju cijelo vrijeme.
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
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Potamnjuju vašu mokraću. Gotovo nikad ne čine više od toga.
10:10
(Laughter)
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--
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
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U redu je, ako želite platiti 28 milijardi dolara za tamnu mokraću,
10:15
I'm totally with you.
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potpuno sam s vama.
10:17
(Laughter)
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--
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
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Tamna mokraća. Tamna.
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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Zašto to činimo? Zašto to činimo?
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
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Pa, mislim da razumijem, mrzimo veliku farmaceutsku tvrtku.
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
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Mrzimo veliku vladu. Ne vjerujemo čovjeku.
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
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I ne bi trebali. Naš zdravstveni sustav je loš.
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
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Okrutan je prema milijunima ljudi.
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
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Apsolutno je iznenađujuće hladan
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
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i slama dušu onima koji ga ne mogu priuštiti.
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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Pa bježimo od njega, i gdje bježimo?
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
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Skačemo u naručje velikog placeba.
10:44
(Laughter)
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--
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
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To je fantastično. Volim veliki placebo.
10:49
(Applause)
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--
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
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Ali, znate, to je stvarno ozbiljna stvar
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
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jer su te stvari smeće,
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
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i trošimo milijarde dolara na njih.
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
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I imam razne vrste malih potpora ovdje.
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
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Nijedna od njih -- ginko, prijevara,
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
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echinacea, prijevara,
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
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acai, ne znam čak ni što je to
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
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ali trošimo milijarde dolara na to, a prijevara je.
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
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I znate to? Kada ovo kažem, ljudi vrište na mene,
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
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i kažu, "Što te briga? Pusti ljude da rade što žele.
11:18
It makes them feel good."
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Od toga se dobro osjećaju."
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
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I znate što? U krivu ste.
11:22
Because I don't care
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Jer mene nije briga
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
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ako se radi o tajnici H.H.S.-a (ministarstva zdravstva)
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
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koja kaže, "Hmm, neću uvažiti dokaze
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
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od mojih stručnjaka o mamografiji,"
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
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ili neki šarlatan onkolog koji želi liječiti svog pacijenta
11:34
with coffee enemas.
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ispiranjem crijeva kavom.
11:36
When you start down the road
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Kada krenete putem
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
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gdje vjerovanja i magija zamjenjuju dokaze i znanost,
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
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završite na mjestu na kojem ne želite biti.
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
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Završite u Thabo Mbeki-jevoj Južnoj Africi.
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
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On je ubio 400,000 svojih ljudi
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
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inzistirajući na tome da su cikla
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
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luk i limunov sok
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
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mnogo učinkovitiji od antiretrovirusnog liječenja
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
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za koje znamo da može usporiti AIDS.
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
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Stotine tisuća bespotrebnih smrti
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
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u zemlji koja ima pošast
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
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goru od bilo koje druge ovom bolešću.
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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Molim vas, nemojte mi reći
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
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da nema posljedica od ovih stvari,
12:07
There are. There always are.
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Ima ih. Uvijek ih ima.
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
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Sada, najnepromišljenija epidemija
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
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u kojoj se upravo nalazimo
12:13
is this absurd battle
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je apsurdna bitka
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
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između predlagača genetski modificirane hrane
12:18
and the organic elite.
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i organske elite.
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
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To je idiotska rasprava. Ona mora prestati.
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
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To je rasprava o riječima, metaforama.
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
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To je ideologija, ne znanost.
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
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Sve što jedemo, svako zrno riže,
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
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svaki stručak peršina,
12:31
every Brussels sprout
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svaku glavicu kupusa
12:33
has been modified by man.
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je prilagodio čovjek.
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
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Znate, nije bilo mandarina u Edenskom vrtu.
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
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Nije bilo ni dinje.
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
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Nije bilo božićnih drvca. Mi smo to sve učinili.
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
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Učinili smo to u zadnjih 11,000 godina.
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
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I nešto od toga je radilo i nešto od toga nije.
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
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Riješili smo se stvari koje nisu.
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
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Sada to možemo raditi na precizniji način.
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
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I postoje rizici, apsolutno.
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
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Ali možemo staviti nešto poput vitamina A u rižu,
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
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i to može pomoći milijunima ljudi,
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
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milijunima ljudi, produžiti njihove živote.
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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Ne želite to učiniti?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
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Moram reći da ne razumijem.
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
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Protivimo se genetski modificiranoj hrani.
13:09
Why do we do that?
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Zašto to činimo?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
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Pa, ono što neprestano slušam je:
13:13
Too many chemicals,
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Previše kemikalija,
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
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pesticidi, hormoni,
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
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monokultura, ne želimo ogromna polja
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
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iste stvari, to je pogrešno.
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
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Ne želimo da tvrtke stvaraju život.
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
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Ne želimo da tvrtke posjeduju sjeme.
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
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I znate koji je moj odgovor na sve to?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
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Da, u pravu ste. Popravimo to.
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
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Istina je, imamo velik problem s hranom,
13:32
but this isn't science.
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ali to nije znanost.
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
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To nema nikakve veze s znanošću.
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
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To je zakon, to je moral, to je stvar patenta.
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
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Znate da znanost nije tvrtka.
13:41
It's not a country.
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Nije zemlja.
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
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Nije čak ni ideja; To je proces.
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
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To je proces, i ponekad radi i ponekad ne radi,
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
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ali ideja kako ne trebamo dozvoliti
13:52
science to do its job
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znanosti da radi svoj posao
13:54
because we're afraid,
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jer se bojimo,
13:56
is really very deadening,
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je zaista vrlo otupljujuća,
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
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i spriječava milijune ljudi
14:00
from prospering.
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od napredovanja.
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
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Znate, u slijedećih 50 godina
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
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morat ćemo uzgojiti 70 posto više hrane nego što to činimo sada,
14:07
70 percent.
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70 posto.
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
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Ovo ulaganje u Afriku u posljednjih 30 godina.
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
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Sramotno. Sramotno.
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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Trebaju to, a mi im to ne dajemo.
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
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I zašto? Genetski modificirana hrana.
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
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Ne želimo ohrabrivati ljude
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
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da jedu tu trulu stvar, poput manioke na primjer.
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
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Manioka je nešto što jede pola milijarde ljudi.
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
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Slično je krumpiru.
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
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To je samo hrpa kalorija. Loše je.
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
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Nema hranjivih tvari, nema bjelančevina,
14:32
and scientists are engineering
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i znanstvenici pokušavaju staviti
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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sve to u nju upravo sada.
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
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I tada će ljudi moći to jesti i moći će ne oslijepiti od toga.
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
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Neće gladovati, i vi znate to?
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
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To bi bilo lijepo. Ne bi bilo kao Chez Panisse.
14:44
but it would be nice.
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ali bi bilo lijepo.
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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I sve što mogu reći o tome je:
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
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Zašto se borimo protiv toga?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
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Mislim, zapitajmo se: Zašto se borimo protiv toga?
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
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Jer ne želimo micati gene naokolo?
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
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Tu je riječ o micanju gena. To nije vezano za kemikalije.
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
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Nije riječ o našoj smiješnoj strasti za hormonima,
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
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našem inzistiranju na većoj hrani,
15:04
better food, singular food.
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boljoj hrani, jednoj hrani.
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
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Tu nije riječ o rižinim pahuljicama,
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
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već o održavanju ljudi živima,
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
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i vrijeme je da počnemo shvaćati što to znači.
15:13
Because, you know something?
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Jer, znate što?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
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Ako ne shvatimo, ako se nastavimo ponašati kako se ponašamo,
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
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krivi smo za nešto za što mislim da ne želimo biti krivi,
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
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kolonijalizam visoke tehnologije.
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
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Nema drugog načina za opisati ono što se događa ovdje.
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
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To je sebično, to je ružno,
15:27
it's beneath us,
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to je ispod nas,
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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i to zaista moramo zaustaviti.
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
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Tako da nakon ovog nevjerojatno zanimljivog razgovora,
15:35
(Laughter)
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--
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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možda želite reći, "Pa, ti još želiš ući u taj
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
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smiješni vremenski stroj i ići naprijed?"
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
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Apsolutno. Apsolutno, želim.
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
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Zaustavljen je u sadašnjosti sada,
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
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ali mi imamo nevjerojatnu priliku.
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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Možemo ga postaviti kako god želimo.
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
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Možemo ga pomaknuti gdje god želimo,
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
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i pomaknuti ćemo ga gdje ga želimo pomaknuti.
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
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Moramo imati ove razgovore, i moramo razmišljati,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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ali kad uđemo u vremenski stroj i odemo naprijed,
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
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biti ćemo sretni što smo to učinili.
16:03
I know that we can,
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Znam da možemo,
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
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i, što se mene tiče,
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
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to je nešto što svijet treba upravo sada.
16:10
(Applause)
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Hvala vam.
16:12
Thank you.
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--
16:15
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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--
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - WriterMichael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.
Why you should listen
Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Lives, dives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.
Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com