TED2010
Michael Specter: The danger of science denial
麦克尔·斯巴克特：否认科学的危险
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疫苗能引发自闭症？我们是否该禁止“恶魔食品”？草药制的类似安慰剂真的有效？这些都表明了公众对科学和理智判断的畏惧变大（经常，甚至完全否认），麦克尔如是说。他警告说，认为这样一种态度对于人类进步是有灾难性后果的。
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's pretend right here we have a machine.
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让我们设想这里有一台机器，
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ish machine,
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它是一个很大的，很酷的，很TED的机器，
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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它是一个时间机器。
00:22
And everyone in this room has to get into it.
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这里每个人都要走进这个时间机器。
00:24
And you can go backwards, you can go forwards;
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你可以选择返回过去或走到未来，
00:26
you cannot stay where you are.
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就是不能停在当下。
00:28
And I wonder what you'd choose, because I've been asking my friends
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我在想你们会怎么选，近来我问了我的朋友很多次这个问题，
00:30
this question a lot lately and they all want to go back.
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他们的回答都是“回到过去”。
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles
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我不理解。他们说，要回到没有汽车、
00:35
or Twitter or "American Idol."
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没有twitter或《美国偶像》的年代。
00:37
I don't know.
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我真的不理解。
00:39
I'm convinced that there's some sort of pull
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我敢肯定，这里必然是有一些怀旧的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia, to wishful thinking.
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或者是痴心妄想。
00:43
And I understand that.
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这我也能理解。
00:45
I'm not part of that crowd, I have to say.
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但是我必须承认，我跟他们不是一伙的。
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous.
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我不想回到过去，不是因为我喜欢冒险，
00:50
It's because possibilities on this planet,
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而是因为这个地球上的可能性，
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward.
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不是走到过去可以获得的，你要走到未来。
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward.
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也就是说，我想走进这个机器，走到未来。
00:57
This is the greatest time there's ever been on this planet
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我们这个时代是最美好的时代，
01:00
by any measure that you wish to choose:
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不管你用何种方式来衡量，如：
01:02
health, wealth,
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健康、财富、
01:04
mobility, opportunity,
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流动性、机遇、
01:06
declining rates of disease ...
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患病率不断下降。
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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从来没有过这么好的时代。
01:10
My great-grandparents died, all of them,
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我的曾祖父母
01:12
by the time they were 60.
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在60岁的时候就死去了。
01:14
My grandparents pushed that number to 70.
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我的祖父母70多岁就死了。
01:16
My parents are closing in on 80.
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我的父母过世时是80几岁。
01:18
So there better be
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我希望我死去的时候
01:21
a nine at the beginning of my death number.
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是在一个9数字开头的时候。
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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但这不仅仅是关乎我们这些人的事情，
01:26
because this is a bigger deal than that.
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因为事实比我们自身大得多。
01:29
A kid born in New Delhi today
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今天在新德里出生的一个小孩
01:31
can expect to live as long as
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可以像100年前世界上最富的人
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the richest man in the world did 100 years ago.
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一样长寿命。
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible fact.
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大家认真想想。这是个很了不起的事实啊。
01:37
And why is it true?
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为什么会出现这样的事实呢？
01:39
Smallpox. Smallpox killed billions
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是因为我们消灭了天花。
01:41
of people on this planet.
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天花曾夺去了地球上数以亿计的人的生命。
01:43
It reshaped the demography of the globe
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它重塑了地球的人口布局，
01:45
in a way that no war ever has.
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这是任何战争也无法相比的。
01:47
It's gone. It's vanished.
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但今天它已被彻底消灭了。
01:49
We vanquished it. Puff.
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是人类铲除了它。
01:51
In the rich world,
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在当今的富有社会里
01:53
diseases that threatened millions of us just a generation ago
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仅仅一代人之前还给数百万人的生命带来威胁的疾病已经
01:56
no longer exist, hardly.
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几乎不再出现了。
01:58
Diphtheria, rubella, polio ...
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白喉, 德国麻疹，小儿麻痹症都几乎不存在了。
02:00
does anyone even know what those things are?
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你们知道这些名字是什么意思吗？
02:03
Vaccines, modern medicine,
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疫苗和现代医学
02:06
our ability to feed billions of people,
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以及人类为数百万人提供食品的能力，
02:08
those are triumphs of the scientific method.
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这些都是科学方法的胜利。
02:10
And to my mind, the scientific method --
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在我看来，科学方法
02:12
trying stuff out,
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就是不断的尝试，
02:14
seeing if it works, changing it when it doesn't --
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检验，改变的过程。
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments of humanity.
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它本身也是人类最伟大的功绩之一。
02:19
So that's the good news.
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所以这些都是好消息。
02:21
Unfortunately, that's all the good news
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但不幸的是，好消息就这么多，
02:23
because there are some other problems, and they've been mentioned many times.
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因为我们还遇到了其他一些难题，也被提到过很多次。
02:26
And one of them is that
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其中一个就是，
02:28
despite all our accomplishments,
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虽然我们取得了巨大的进步，
02:30
a billion people go to bed hungry
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但是现在世界上还有10亿人吃不饱肚子，
02:32
in this world every day.
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每天，他们都在忍受饥饿的折磨。
02:34
That number's rising, and it's rising really rapidly, and it's disgraceful.
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这一数字还在上升，并且上升的速度很快。这是足以让我们丢脸的。
02:37
And not only that, we've used our imagination
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不仅如此，人类的想象力
02:40
to thoroughly trash this globe.
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还给地球带来了巨大的垃圾。
02:42
Potable water, arable land,
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饮用水、可耕地、
02:44
rainforests, oil, gas:
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热带雨林、石油、天然气，
02:46
they're going away, and they're going away soon,
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这些资源都在消失，并且消失的速度也很快。
02:49
and unless we innovate our way out of this mess,
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除非我们懂得去创新，
02:52
we're going away too.
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否则我们就没有任何希望了。
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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问题是：我们做得到吗？我想我们可以做到。
02:57
I think it's clear that we can make food
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我认为我们可以生产出足以养活数十亿人的粮食，
02:59
that will feed billions of people without raping the land that they live on.
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而不会损害他们赖以生存的土地。
03:02
I think we can power this world with energy
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我认为我们可以找到环境友好的能源
03:04
that doesn't also destroy it.
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来供给世界能量。
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful thinking.
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我确实是深信这样的理论的，这绝对不是臆想。
03:09
But here's the thing that keeps me up at night --
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但我总是遇到让我晚上睡不着觉的事情。
03:12
one of the things that keeps me up at night:
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这是其中一个让我晚上睡不着的事情。
03:16
We've never needed progress in science more than we need it right now. Never.
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人类历史上从来没有象今天这样急需科技的进步
03:19
And we've also never been in a position
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而历史上我们也从未有过像今天这样的时机，
03:21
to deploy it properly in the way that we can today.
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我们可以按照我们的意愿去使用这些科技。
03:23
We're on the verge of amazing, amazing events
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在许多领域，我们都站在了惊人发现的
03:26
in many fields,
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时代。
03:28
and yet I actually think we'd have to go back
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事实上，我认为我们需要往回看，
03:30
hundreds, 300 years, before the Enlightenment,
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回到300年前，回到文艺复兴之前的年代，
03:33
to find a time when we battled progress,
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只有在那个年代，才有人要抵抗进步，
03:36
when we fought about these things
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才会有人比我们今天更加
03:38
more vigorously, on more fronts, than we do now.
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猛烈的去反抗科技的进步。
03:41
People wrap themselves in their beliefs,
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人们总是喜欢把自己放在自己的理念框架里，
03:43
and they do it so tightly that you can't set them free.
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他们把自己包得那么死，往往无法脱身。
03:46
Not even the truth will set them free.
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即使是听到了真理也不能使他们产生动摇。
03:48
And, listen, everyone's entitled to their opinion;
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听着，每个人都可以坚持他的观点，
03:51
they're even entitled to their opinion about progress.
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他们甚至可以坚持他们关于进步的观点，
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled to?
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但你知道你不能坚持什么吗？
03:55
You're not entitled to your own facts. Sorry, you're not.
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你不能只坚持你自己所知道的事实。真的，你不能。
03:58
And this took me awhile to figure out.
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我也是花了一段时间才领悟出来的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story about vaccines
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大约十年前，我给《纽约客》写了一个故事
04:02
for The New Yorker. A little story.
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一个关于疫苗小故事。
04:04
And I was amazed to find opposition:
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但我发现竟然有那么多人要反对我
04:06
opposition to what is, after all,
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他们反对的是
04:09
the most effective public health measure in human history.
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人类历史上最有效的公共卫生预防措施。
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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我真的不知该怎么做，
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story and I moved on.
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我就只做自己该做的。故事写完，我就做别的事。
04:17
And soon after that,
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不久之后，
04:20
I wrote a story about genetically engineered food.
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我写了一个关于转基因食物的文章。
04:22
Same thing, only bigger.
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又是收到了大量的反对，声浪大于上一次。
04:24
People were going crazy.
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人们简直是发疯了。
04:26
So I wrote a story about that too,
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于是我也就此写了一个文章，
04:28
and I couldn't understand why
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我真的不能理解为何人们会把这理解为
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods,"
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“恶魔食物”，
04:32
why they thought moving molecules around
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我不理解，为何人们会认为按照特定的方式
04:34
in a specific, rather than a haphazard way,
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而非任意的方式，来搬运生物分子
04:37
was trespassing on nature's ground.
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是在玩弄自然。
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story, I moved on.
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不过我还是只做我该做的。故事写完后，我就不管它了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist.
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我是个记者，
04:44
We type, we file, we go to dinner. It's fine.
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我们的工作就是写文章，发表，吃饭，这就是我们的生活。
04:47
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:50
But these stories bothered me,
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但是这些见闻还是让我心里感到不舒服，
04:52
and I couldn't figure out why, and eventually I did.
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我也不知道是什么原因，直到后来我才知道。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics that were driving me crazy
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那些曾经把我逼疯的狂热分子
04:57
weren't actually fanatics at all.
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事实上并非狂热分子
04:59
They were thoughtful people, educated people, decent people.
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他们都是有想法的人，受过良好教育的人，正直的公民。
05:02
They were exactly like the people in this room.
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他们就像这个房间里的人们。
05:06
And it just disturbed me so much.
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这确实让我十分头疼，
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest.
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后来我想，说实话：
05:11
We're at a point in this world
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我们今天的时代对于进步的关系
05:13
where we don't have the same relationship to progress that we used to.
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已经不同于往日了。
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently.
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我们现在是以一种很疑惑的眼光来看待进步。
05:18
We talk about it in ironic terms with little quotes around it:
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我们会以讽刺的口吻来谈论进步
05:20
"progress."
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并且会加上引号：“进步”。
05:23
Okay, there are reasons for that, and I think we know what those reasons are.
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我想是有原因的，我们也知道是什么原因。
05:26
We've lost faith in institutions,
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我们对于民间机构，
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in authority,
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对政府，
05:30
and sometimes in science itself,
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有时甚至是对科学，已经失去了信任，
05:32
and there's no reason we shouldn't have.
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也许我们确实有不信任的理由。
05:34
You can just say a few names
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讲出几个名字你就知道
05:36
and people will understand.
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是什么原因了。
05:38
Chernobyl, Bhopal, the Challenger,
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切尔诺贝利，博帕尔，挑战者号，
05:41
Vioxx, weapons of mass destruction,
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还有Vioxx抗关节炎药, 大规模杀伤性武器，
05:44
hanging chads.
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半打出的选票。
05:46
You know, you can choose your list.
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我想大家可以在自己心中把这样一个清单列出来。
05:49
There are questions and problems
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我们过去完全信任的永远是对的，
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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现在都出问题了。
05:53
so be skeptical.
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所以大家还是应当要有一点怀疑的态度。
05:56
Ask questions, demand proof, demand evidence.
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要问几个问题，要索求证明和证据。
05:59
Don't take anything for granted.
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凡事千万不能信以为真。
06:01
But here's the thing: When you get proof,
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但有一点需要注意，当你获得证据的时候，
06:04
you need to accept the proof, and we're not that good at doing that.
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你需要接受那样的证据，但我们并不善于这么做。
06:07
And the reason that I can say that is because
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原因，我认为是
06:09
we're now in an epidemic of fear
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我们现在都得了恐惧的传染病，
06:11
like one I've never seen and hope never to see again.
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这样一种传染病之广度和深度是我从未经历的，更希望以后不会再次出现。
06:14
About 12 years ago, there was a story published,
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12年前，媒体暴光了一则消息，
06:16
a horrible story,
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那是一个非常可怕的消息，
06:18
that linked the epidemic of autism
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它将自闭症
06:21
to the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine shot.
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与接受麻疹、腮腺炎和风疹疫苗注射关联在一起。
06:24
Very scary.
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确实很可怕。
06:26
Tons of studies were done to see if this was true.
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于是有大量的研究围绕这一事件而展开。
06:29
Tons of studies should have been done; it's a serious issue.
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确实有必要做这些研究，因为那确实是一个严重的事件。
06:32
The data came back.
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最后数据出来了。
06:34
The data came back from the United States, from England,
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来自美国、英国
06:36
from Sweden, from Canada,
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瑞典、加拿大的数据验证了
06:38
and it was all the same: no correlation,
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同样的结论，即自闭症和疫苗二者之间没有关联，
06:40
no connection, none at all.
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没有任何联系，根本没有联系。
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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但这个结果对于大众而言没有太大意义。
06:44
because we believe anecdotes,
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因为我们喜欢听小故事，
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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我们会相信我们眼睛看到的，相信我们内心认为我们看到的
06:48
what makes us feel real.
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相信那些让我们觉得真实的事情。
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents
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但就是不相信一堆的化验文件，
06:52
from a government official giving us data,
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不相信来自政府部门的数据，
06:54
and I do understand that, I think we all do.
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我也能理解这一点，我想我们所有人都有这样的心理。
06:56
But you know what?
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但后果如何呢？
06:58
The result of that has been disastrous.
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后果令人不堪设想，
07:00
Disastrous because here's a fact:
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请听这个事实：
07:03
The United States is one of the only countries in the world
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美国是世界上唯一一个
07:05
where the vaccine rate for measles is going down.
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麻疹接种比例在下降的国家。
07:08
That is disgraceful,
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这足以让我们感到羞辱，
07:10
and we should be ashamed of ourselves.
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我们应当为此感到惭愧。
07:12
It's horrible.
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这是很可怕的事情。
07:14
What kind of a thing happened
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到底是因为什么
07:16
that we could do that?
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才使得这样的事情发生？
07:18
Now, I understand it. I do understand it.
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现在我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone have measles here?
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请问这里有人得过麻疹吗？
07:23
Has one person in this audience ever seen someone die of measles?
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你们当中有人看到别人因为患上了麻疹而死亡吗？
07:26
Doesn't happen very much.
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不多、不多。
07:28
Doesn't happen in this country at all,
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事实上它也不会发生在这个国家，
07:30
but it happened 160,000 times in the world last year.
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但是，过去一年里，有16万人因为患有麻疹而死去。
07:32
That's a lot of death of measles --
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这个数字是巨大的，
07:34
20 an hour.
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基本是每个小时有20人因此而死去。
07:36
But since it didn't happen here, we can put it out of our minds,
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但是因为它不是发生在我们身边，我们可以不管这事情，
07:39
and people like Jenny McCarthy
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像Jenny McCarthy那样的人
07:41
can go around preaching messages
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则依然能够在
07:43
of fear and illiteracy from platforms
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奥普拉和拉里金的节目上
07:45
like "Oprah" and "Larry King Live."
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传播他们的畏惧和无知信息。
07:48
And they can do it because
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他们之所以这么做
07:50
they don't link causation and correlation.
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是因为他们没有把原因与关联放在一起看。
07:52
They don't understand that these things seem the same,
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他们也不知道，那些看上去一样的东西
07:55
but they're almost never the same.
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事实上从来都不是一样的。
07:57
And it's something we need to learn, and we need to learn it really soon.
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我们需要从中汲取经验教训，并且越早越好。
08:00
This guy was a hero, Jonas Salk.
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这位叫Jonas Salk的男士是一个英雄。
08:03
He took one of the worst scourges of mankind away from us.
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因为他发明了小儿麻痹症的疫苗使得人们避免了这最严重的灾难。
08:06
No fear, no agony. Polio -- puff, gone.
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现在人们不需要去畏惧患上这一疾病了，也不会有患病带来的痛楚，小儿麻痹症消失了。
08:09
That guy in the middle, not so much.
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中间那个男人就不是那么风光了。
08:12
His name is Paul Offit.
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他叫Paul Offit。
08:14
He just developed a rotavirus vaccine with a bunch of other people.
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他与其他几位研究者一道发明了轮状病毒疫苗。
08:16
It'll save the lives of 400 to 500,000 kids
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这一疫苗每一年可以拯救发展中国家
08:19
in the developing world every year.
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4亿50万孩子的生命。
08:21
Pretty good, right?
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应当是好事，不是吗？
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul goes around talking about vaccines
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确实是很好。这是Paul会四处跟人们讲这一疫苗，
08:25
and says how valuable they are
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说它们有多好，
08:27
and that people ought to just stop the whining.
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并称人们从此可以告别苦楚。
08:29
And he actually says it that way.
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他确实是这么说的。
08:31
So, Paul's a terrorist.
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因此，我们把Paul当成是恐怖主义分子。
08:34
When Paul speaks in a public hearing,
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当Paul要公开作证的时候，
08:36
he can't testify without armed guards.
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他身边必须要有武装保安。
08:38
He gets called at home
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他在家里会接到恐吓电话
08:40
because people like to tell him
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因为人们会跟他说
08:42
that they remember where his kids go to school.
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他们知道他孩子在哪里上学。
08:44
And why? Because Paul made a vaccine.
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为什么？因为Paul发明了一种疫苗。
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines are essential.
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我本不需要讲这个的，但疫苗确实是极其重要的。
08:50
You take them away, disease comes back,
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一旦停止疫苗注射，疾病又会卷土重来，
08:52
horrible diseases. And that's happening.
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并且是非常可怕的疾病，这样的事情正在发生。
08:55
We have measles in this country now.
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现在美国也出现麻疹了。
08:57
And it's getting worse, and pretty soon kids
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并且情况变得越来越糟糕，
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers game.
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不久，就会有孩子因为患上这个病而死，这只是一个数字问题。
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles.
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不仅仅是麻疹呢。
09:03
What about polio? Let's have that. Why not?
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还有小儿麻痹症，谁敢说它不会重新出现？
09:05
A college classmate of mine wrote me a couple weeks ago and said
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我的一位大学同学几周前给我写了一封信，
09:08
she thought I was a little strident.
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她说我现在有点太过张扬了。
09:10
No one's ever said that before.
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之前从来没有人这么说的。
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate her kid against polio,
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她说她不打算给孩子接种小儿麻痹症疫苗。
09:15
no way.
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肯定不会。
09:17
Fine.
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好吧。
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio. And you know what?
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为什么？因为这个国家没有小儿麻痹症。但你知道吗？
09:21
We didn't have polio in this country yesterday.
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我们昨天没有这个传染病。
09:24
Today, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane in Lagos this morning,
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今天，我不知道，也许一位嘉宾从拉各斯上飞机，
09:27
and he's flying to LAX, right now he's over Ohio.
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他的目的地是洛杉矶机场，现在已经到了俄亥俄州。
09:29
And he's going to land in a couple of hours, he's going to rent a car,
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几个小时之后他就要到达地面，他会打车
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach,
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来到长滩市，
09:34
and he's going to attend one of these fabulous TED dinners tonight.
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来到这里参加其中一场TED晚宴。
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected with a paralytic disease,
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他不知道自己是感染了小儿麻痹症，
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world works.
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我们也不知道，这就是世界的事实。
09:43
That's the planet we live on. Don't pretend it isn't.
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我们地球的事实就是这样的。不要以为不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves in lies. We love to do it.
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我们喜欢相信谎言。我们都很喜欢这么做。
09:49
Everyone take their vitamins this morning?
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你们每个人早上都吃了维他命片吗？
09:51
Echinacea, a little antioxidant
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或者紫锥花，或者一点的抗氧化剂，
09:53
to get you going.
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只有吃过那些你才感觉比较清醒。
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans do every day.
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你之所以这么做，是因为每天有半数的美国人也这么做。
09:58
They take the stuff, and they take alternative medicines,
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他们会吃这东西，，也会吃替代药物，
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often
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尽管我们已经知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless.
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这些东西实际上是无效的。
10:05
The data says it all the time.
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数据就是这么说的。
10:07
They darken your urine. They almost never do more than that.
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吃这些只会使得你的尿液变黑。除此以外，它们不起任何作用。
10:10
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay 28 billion dollars for dark urine?
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假如你愿意花280亿美元来获得一些黑色的尿液，
10:15
I'm totally with you.
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我也没有反对。
10:17
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:19
Dark urine. Dark.
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是黑色的尿液，黑色的哦。
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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为什么要这么做呢？为什么？
10:24
Well, I think I understand, we hate Big Pharma.
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我想我也许能理解。我们这个国家药品行业非常庞大。
10:26
We hate Big Government. We don't trust the Man.
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而我们都讨厌大政府，因为我们对那里面的人不信任。
10:28
And we shouldn't: Our health care system sucks.
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但我们不一定要这么做。我们的医保体制很烂。
10:31
It's cruel to millions of people.
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对于数百万的国民来讲，那是一个残酷体制
10:33
It's absolutely astonishingly cold
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而对于那些能够支付起的人们来说
10:36
and soul-bending to those of us who can even afford it.
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这也绝对是非常冷酷和无情的一种医疗体制。
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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于是我们就想办法逃离这样体制。逃到哪里去呢？
10:42
We leap into the arms of Big Placebo.
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我们投入了安慰剂的巨大怀抱。
10:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:47
That's fantastic. I love Big Placebo.
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这个很精彩哦，我很喜欢安慰剂。
10:49
(Applause)
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（掌声）
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious thing
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但是你要知道，这的确是个严重的事情
10:57
because this stuff is crap,
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缘于这东西是一个破烂货，
10:59
and we spend billions of dollars on it.
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但我们却花了数以亿计的银子来购买安慰剂。
11:01
And I have all sorts of little props here.
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我这里带来了各种各样的样品。
11:04
None of it ... ginkgo, fraud;
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它们当中没有一样是有效，不管是银杏果，
11:06
echinacea, fraud;
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紫锥花，
11:08
acai -- I don't even know what that is
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阿薩伊果，都是幌子。我甚至不知道这是什么，
11:10
but we're spending billions of dollars on it -- it's fraud.
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但是我们就花了数十亿银子来购买它们，这是欺骗。
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff, people scream at me,
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但你知道吗？当我说到这里的时候，人们会对我尖叫。
11:15
and they say, "What do you care? Let people do what they want to do.
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他们会说，“你管什么闲事！让人们自己去做选择就行啦！
11:18
It makes them feel good."
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吃安慰剂至少使人们内心感到舒服些啊！"
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong.
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你晓得吗？你们错了。
11:22
Because I don't care
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我是不会放在心里的。
11:24
if it's the secretary of HHS
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假如美国健康与公共事业部部长
11:26
who's saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence
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说，“我才不管专家
11:29
of my experts on mammograms,"
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所找到的关于乳房X线照片的证据呢"
11:31
or some cancer quack who wants to treat his patient
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或者是一个癌症庸医想通过
11:34
with coffee enemas.
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咖啡灌肠来医治他的病人。
11:36
When you start down the road
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假如你相信信念和魔术
11:38
where belief and magic replace evidence and science,
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而非证据与科学的话，
11:41
you end up in a place you don't want to be.
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你最终只会去到一个你不想去到的地方。
11:43
You end up in Thabo Mbeki South Africa.
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也许你最终会成为南非前领导人姆贝基。
11:45
He killed 400,000 of his people
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他坚持相信
11:48
by insisting that beetroot,
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甜菜根蒜和柠檬油
11:50
garlic and lemon oil
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比起我们所知可延缓艾滋病的抗逆转录病毒药物对于治疗艾滋病
11:52
were much more effective than the antiretroviral drugs
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更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course of AIDS.
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这导致了40万人因为感染艾滋病而死亡。
11:56
Hundreds of thousands of needless deaths
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成千上万的本不必要死亡的人们
11:58
in a country that has been plagued
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因此而死。
12:01
worse than any other by this disease.
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那里恰恰又是全球感染艾滋病最严重的地区。
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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请不要跟我说这些事例是
12:05
there are no consequences to these things.
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不会产生严重后果的。
12:07
There are. There always are.
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后果是有的 ，总是会有的。
12:09
Now, the most mindless epidemic
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现在，我们遇到的最无知的传染病
12:11
we're in the middle of right now
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就是转基因作物
12:13
is this absurd battle
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与有机精耕作物
12:15
between proponents of genetically engineered food
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两个阵营之间的
12:18
and the organic elite.
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愚蠢对抗。
12:20
It's an idiotic debate. It has to stop.
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这也是一个愚蠢的争辩。我们必须停止这样的争辩了。
12:22
It's a debate about words, about metaphors.
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因为争辩的只是字眼和隐喻本身。
12:25
It's ideology, it's not science.
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是关于意识形态的争辩，而不是关于科学的争辩。
12:27
Every single thing we eat, every grain of rice,
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我们吃进肚子里的每一样东西，每一颗饭，
12:29
every sprig of parsley,
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每一根香菜，
12:31
every Brussels sprout
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每根布鲁塞尔豆芽
12:33
has been modified by man.
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都曾被人类改变过。
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines in the garden of Eden.
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因为在伊甸园里本来就没有橘子的，
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe. (Laughter)
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也没有哈密瓜，
12:39
There weren't Christmas trees. We made it all.
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更不会有圣诞树。都是人造出来的。
12:42
We made it over the last 11,000 years.
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人类在过去一万一千年里造出了这些东西。
12:45
And some of it worked, and some of it didn't.
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有些试验成功了，有些失败了。
12:47
We got rid of the stuff that didn't.
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那些失败的尝试就被抛弃了。
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise way --
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而现在我们可以以一种更为精准的方式来做试验。
12:51
and there are risks, absolutely --
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这肯定会有风险的。
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin A into rice,
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但是我们可以把维他命A放到水稻的基因里，
12:56
and that stuff can help millions of people,
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这将会拯救数百万人的生命，
12:59
millions of people, prolong their lives.
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或者延长他们的寿命。
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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你不愿做这样的努力吗？
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand it.
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我只能说，我对此不理解。
13:07
We object to genetically engineered food.
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我们不少人在反对转基因食物。
13:09
Why do we do that?
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为什么呢？
13:11
Well, the things I constantly hear are:
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我经常听到的理由是：
13:13
Too many chemicals,
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（转基因食物）太多化学成分了，
13:15
pesticides, hormones,
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太多农药、荷尔蒙，
13:17
monoculture, we don't want giant fields
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单一化的生产，
13:19
of the same thing, that's wrong.
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确实我们不希望数百亩的地都是生产同样的作物，那样不好。
13:21
We don't companies patenting life.
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我们也不想让商业公司为新作物打上专利。
13:23
We don't want companies owning seeds.
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我们也不想让大公司垄断种子。
13:25
And you know what my response to all of that is?
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你能猜想我对这些反对意见的回应吗？
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix it.
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对，猜对了，让我们一起来解决这些问题。
13:30
It's true, we've got a huge food problem,
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不错，我们遇到了非常严重的食品问题，
13:32
but this isn't science.
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但这不是科学的问题。
13:34
This has nothing to do with science.
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因为这与科学无关。
13:36
It's law, it's morality, it's patent stuff.
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这是法律、伦理、专利法相关的问题。
13:39
You know science isn't a company.
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要知道，科学并非一家公司，
13:41
It's not a country.
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也不是一个国家，
13:43
It's not even an idea; it's a process.
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甚至不是一个想法，它是一个过程。
13:46
It's a process, and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't,
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这样的过程有时候取得成功，有时候失败，
13:49
but the idea that we should not allow
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但因为我们畏惧
13:52
science to do its job
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而认为我们不该让科学家去
13:54
because we're afraid,
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做深入研究本职工作
13:56
is really very deadening,
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是非常可怕的，
13:58
and it's preventing millions of people
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这也会阻碍了数以百万计的人
14:00
from prospering.
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走向繁荣。
14:02
You know, in the next 50 years
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未来的50年
14:04
we're going to have to grow 70 percent more food than we do right now,
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我们需要比现在种植
14:07
70 percent.
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多70%的粮食。
14:09
This investment in Africa over the last 30 years.
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这是我们过去30年在非洲投资的总计。
14:12
Disgraceful. Disgraceful.
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这让我们很丢脸。
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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那里的人需要这些，但我们偏偏不给。
14:16
And why? Genetically engineered food.
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为什么？也是因为转基因食物。
14:19
We don't want to encourage people
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我们不鼓励人们去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff, like cassava for instance.
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吃变坏的食物，比如变坏的木薯。
14:24
Cassava's something that half a billion people eat.
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世界上有5000万人是靠吃木薯为生的。
14:26
It's kind of like a potato.
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那是跟马铃薯比较像的一种作物。
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories. It sucks.
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就只有卡路里，味道也不好。
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients, it doesn't have protein,
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没有营养，也没有蛋白质，
14:32
and scientists are engineering
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现在有科学家在尝试
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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把这些加到木薯里。
14:36
And then people would be able to eat it and they'd be able to not go blind.
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吃到这些经过改良的木薯的人就可以避免失明。
14:39
They wouldn't starve, and you know what?
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也不会挨饿，你会了解到，
14:41
That would be nice. It wouldn't be Chez Panisse,
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这是好事情。虽然比不上高档餐厅，
14:44
but it would be nice.
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但也是好事。
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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我只能说，
14:50
Why are we fighting it?
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为什么有些人要反对这个？
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves: Why are we fighting it?
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请大家问问自己：我们为何要反对？
14:54
Because we don't want to move genes around?
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因为我们不想移动基因组吗？
14:56
This is about moving genes around. It's not about chemicals.
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这仅仅是移动了一些基因组，跟添加化学物质没有任何关联。
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous passion for hormones,
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跟荷尔蒙也没有关系。
15:02
our insistence on having bigger food,
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我们总是希望获得更大的食物，
15:04
better food, singular food.
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更好的食物，更专一的食物。
15:06
This isn't about Rice Krispies,
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这不是要造米酥，
15:08
this is about keeping people alive,
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只是想让一些人活下来，
15:10
and it's about time we started to understand what that meant.
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现在是时候我们认真理解这过程的含义了。
15:13
Because, you know something?
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你知道吗？
15:15
If we don't, if we continue to act the way we're acting,
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假如我们不这么做，而是坚持现在的做法，
15:18
we're guilty of something that I don't think we want to be guilty of:
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我们未来将会因为一些我们不希望发生的事情而有负罪感，
15:21
high-tech colonialism.
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那将是高科技的殖民主义。
15:23
There's no other way to describe what's going on here.
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没有其他别的词语更合适于描述这一状况了。
15:25
It's selfish, it's ugly,
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这是自私的，肮脏的，
15:27
it's beneath us,
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这么做只会降低我们的尊严，
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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我们必须停止这么做。
15:32
So after this amazingly fun conversation,
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好了，这样一场非常有趣的对话之后，
15:35
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:37
you might want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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你也许会说，“你还会走进这一时间机器，
15:39
ridiculous time machine and go forward?"
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并且驶向未来吗？”
15:41
Absolutely. Absolutely, I do.
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那当然。我肯定会那么做。
15:44
It's stuck in the present right now,
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这机器现在停在当下，
15:46
but we have an amazing opportunity.
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但是我们遇到了非常好的机遇。
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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我们可以如愿任意设置时间机器。
15:51
We can move it where we want to move it,
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想去那里就去那里，
15:53
and we're going to move it where we want to move it.
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我们可以去到我们真正希望到达的地方。
15:55
We have to have these conversations and we have to think,
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我们需要开展这样的对话，我们需要思考，
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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当我们进入时间机器并且驶向未来时，
16:01
we're going to be happy we do.
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我们会为我们的选择感到高兴。
16:03
I know that we can,
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我相信我们可以，
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned,
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而就我的理解，
16:07
that's something the world needs right now.
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这就是世界现在所需要的东西。
16:10
(Applause)
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谢谢大家
16:12
Thank you.
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（掌声）
16:15
Thank you.
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谢谢
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - WriterMichael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.
Why you should listen
Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Lives, dives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.
Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com