ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.

Why you should listen

Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Livesdives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.

Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com
TED2010

Michael Specter: The danger of science denial

Michael Specter: 否定科學的危險

Filmed:
2,161,284 views

施打疫苗導致自閉症? 應該禁止「科學怪人食品」? 讓我們跟上草藥療法的風潮? 這一切都表明公眾對科學與理性日漸升高的恐懼(而且有時近乎完全否定),Michael Specter 是這麼說的。他警告: 這個趨勢將為人類的進步帶來災難性的後果。
- Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
Let's pretend假裝 right here we have a machine.
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想像一下這裡有一臺機器,
00:18
A big machine, a cool, TED-ishTED-ISH machine,
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一臺巨大的、炫麗的、很 TED 的機器,
00:20
and it's a time machine.
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它是一個時間機器,
00:22
And everyone大家 in this room房間 has to get into it.
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在這房間裡的每一個人都要走進這個時間機器
00:24
And you can go backwards向後, you can go forwards前鋒;
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你可以選擇回到過去、或走向未來
00:26
you cannot不能 stay where you are.
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你就是不能停在當下
00:28
And I wonder奇蹟 what you'd choose選擇, because I've been asking my friends朋友
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我在想你們會怎麼選,因為最近我問我朋友,
00:30
this question a lot lately最近 and they all want to go back.
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他們的回答都是「回到過去」
00:33
I don't know. They want to go back before there were automobiles汽車
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我不知道。他們想要回到沒有汽車、
00:35
or Twitter推特 or "American美國 Idol偶像."
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沒有 Twitter 或《美國偶像》(American Idol)的年代
00:37
I don't know.
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我搞不懂
00:39
I'm convinced相信 that there's some sort分類 of pull
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我肯定他們心裡有種懷舊的情愫
00:41
to nostalgia懷舊之情, to wishful如意 thinking思維.
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或是癡心妄想
00:43
And I understand理解 that.
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這我能理解
00:45
I'm not part部分 of that crowd人群, I have to say.
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但我必須承認,我跟他們不是同一掛的
00:48
I don't want to go back, and it's not because I'm adventurous愛冒險的.
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我不想回到過去,不是因為我喜歡冒險 --
00:50
It's because possibilities可能性 on this planet行星,
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而是因為,這個地球的可能性
00:52
they don't go back, they go forward前鋒.
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無法從過去獲得,你要向未來前進
00:54
So I want to get in the machine, and I want to go forward前鋒.
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也就是說,我想走進這個機器,走到未來
00:57
This is the greatest最大 time there's ever been on this planet行星
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這個時代是最美好的時代,
01:00
by any measure測量 that you wish希望 to choose選擇:
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不管你用何種方式來衡量,如:
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health健康, wealth財富,
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健康、財富、
01:04
mobility流動性, opportunity機會,
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流動性、機遇、
01:06
declining下降 rates利率 of disease疾病 ...
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患病率不斷下降
01:08
There's never been a time like this.
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從未有過這麼好的時代
01:10
My great-grandparents曾祖父母 died死亡, all of them,
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我的曾祖父母
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by the time they were 60.
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在60歲的時候過世
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My grandparents祖父母 pushed that number to 70.
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我的祖父母多一些,他們在70多歲時離去
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My parents父母 are closing關閉 in on 80.
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我的父母過世時已經80幾歲了
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So there better be
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所以,我希望我死去的時候
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a nine at the beginning開始 of my death死亡 number.
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是在一個9數字開頭左右的時候
01:24
But it's not even about people like us,
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但這並不只和我們有關
01:26
because this is a bigger deal合同 than that.
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這關係著更多人的生命
01:29
A kid孩子 born天生 in New Delhi新德里 today今天
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今天,在新德里出生的某個小孩
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can expect期望 to live生活 as long as
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可以擁有100年前
01:33
the richest首富 man in the world世界 did 100 years年份 ago.
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世界上最富有的人一樣長的壽命
01:35
Think about that, it's an incredible難以置信 fact事實.
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你想想,這是個多麼了不起的事!
01:37
And why is it true真正?
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為什麼會出現這樣的事?
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Smallpox天花. Smallpox天花 killed殺害 billions數十億
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是因為我們消滅了天花
01:41
of people on this planet行星.
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天花曾奪走地球上數以億計人的生命
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It reshaped重塑 the demography人口統計學 of the globe地球
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它重塑了地球的人口結構
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in a way that no war戰爭 ever has.
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任何戰爭也無以比擬
01:47
It's gone走了. It's vanished消失.
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但今天,它消失了
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We vanquished征服 it. Puff.
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我們克服了它
01:51
In the rich豐富 world世界,
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在當今富裕世界裡
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diseases疾病 that threatened受威脅 millions百萬 of us just a generation ago
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那曾經威脅上個世代數百萬人的疾病
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no longer exist存在, hardly幾乎不.
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幾乎不再出現了
01:58
Diphtheria白喉, rubella風疹, polio脊髓灰質炎 ...
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白喉、德國麻疹、小兒麻痹......
02:00
does anyone任何人 even know what those things are?
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有人知道這些是什麼嗎?
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Vaccines疫苗, modern現代 medicine醫學,
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疫苗、現代醫學、
02:06
our ability能力 to feed飼料 billions數十億 of people,
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以及人類為數百萬人提供食品的能力
02:08
those are triumphs勝利 of the scientific科學 method方法.
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這些都是科學法則的勝利
02:10
And to my mind心神, the scientific科學 method方法 --
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在我看來,科學方法
02:12
trying stuff東東 out,
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就是不斷嘗試、
02:14
seeing眼看 if it works作品, changing改變 it when it doesn't --
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檢驗、改變的過程
02:17
is one of the great accomplishments成就 of humanity人性.
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它是人類最偉大的成就之一
02:19
So that's the good news新聞.
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因此這些都是好消息
02:21
Unfortunately不幸, that's all the good news新聞
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但不幸的是,好消息就這麼多
02:23
because there are some other problems問題, and they've他們已經 been mentioned提到 many許多 times.
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因為我們遇到其他一些難題,它們也被提過很多次
02:26
And one of them is that
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其中一個就是
02:28
despite儘管 all our accomplishments成就,
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儘管我們取得進步,
02:30
a billion十億 people go to bed hungry飢餓
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但目前,世界上還有10億人挨餓著
02:32
in this world世界 every一切 day.
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每天,他們都忍受著饑餓的折磨
02:34
That number's數字的 rising升起, and it's rising升起 really rapidly急速, and it's disgraceful可恥.
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這數字還在上升,上升的速度很快,令人感到羞愧
02:37
And not only that, we've我們已經 used our imagination想像力
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除此之外,我們還使用自身的想像力
02:40
to thoroughly trash垃圾 this globe地球.
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給地球帶來巨大的垃圾
02:42
Potable飲用水 water, arable可耕的 land土地,
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飲用水、可耕地、
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rainforests熱帶雨林, oil, gas加油站:
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熱帶雨林、石油、天然氣:
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they're going away, and they're going away soon不久,
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這些資源都在流失,並且即將消失殆盡
02:49
and unless除非 we innovate創新 our way out of this mess食堂,
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除非我們懂得創新
02:52
we're going away too.
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否則我們也會跟著滅亡
02:54
So the question is: Can we do that? And I think we can.
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問題是: 我們做得到嗎? 我想我們可以
02:57
I think it's clear明確 that we can make food餐飲
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我認為我們可以產出足以養活數十億人的糧食
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that will feed飼料 billions數十億 of people without raping強姦 the land土地 that they live生活 on.
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而不會損害他們賴以維生的土地
03:02
I think we can power功率 this world世界 with energy能源
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我認為,我們可以找到對環境友善的能源
03:04
that doesn't also destroy破壞 it.
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而不會毀壞環境
03:06
I really do believe that, and, no, it ain't wishful如意 thinking思維.
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我確實是這麼相信的,絕非一廂情願
03:09
But here's這裡的 the thing that keeps保持 me up at night --
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然而,有些事讓我輾轉難眠 --
03:12
one of the things that keeps保持 me up at night:
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其中一個讓我徹夜難眠的事
03:16
We've我們已經 never needed需要 progress進展 in science科學 more than we need it right now. Never.
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在我們的歷史上,從來沒有如今天這般急需科技的進步。從來沒有。
03:19
And we've我們已經 also never been in a position位置
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在歷史上,我們也從未有過今天這樣的時機,
03:21
to deploy部署 it properly正確 in the way that we can today今天.
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讓我們可以按照自己的意願使用這些科技
03:23
We're on the verge邊緣 of amazing驚人, amazing驚人 events事件
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在許多領域中,我們都正處於
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in many許多 fields領域,
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驚人發現的時刻
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and yet然而 I actually其實 think we'd星期三 have to go back
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儘管如此,事實上,我認為我們必須回頭看看
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hundreds數以百計, 300 years年份, before the Enlightenment啟示,
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回到300年前,回到啓蒙時代以前
03:33
to find a time when we battled作戰 progress進展,
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只有在那個年代,才有人抵抗進步
03:36
when we fought戰鬥 about these things
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才有人比我們今天更加
03:38
more vigorously大力, on more fronts戰線, than we do now.
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猛烈地抗拒科技的進步
03:41
People wrap themselves他們自己 in their beliefs信仰,
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人們總愛把自己放置於信仰裡
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and they do it so tightly緊緊 that you can't set them free自由.
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他們捆綁自己,使自己無法脫身
03:46
Not even the truth真相 will set them free自由.
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即便是真理也無法使他們獲得自由
03:48
And, listen, everyone's大家的 entitled標題 to their opinion意見;
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聽著,每個人都有權抱持他的觀點,
03:51
they're even entitled標題 to their opinion意見 about progress進展.
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他們甚至有權聲稱他們關於進步的意見
03:53
But you know what you're not entitled標題 to?
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但你知道你沒有權利做什麽嗎?
03:55
You're not entitled標題 to your own擁有 facts事實. Sorry, you're not.
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你無權堅稱你自己所知道的事實。抱歉,你就是無法。
03:58
And this took me awhile一會兒 to figure數字 out.
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我也是花了一段時間才領悟出來的
04:00
About a decade ago, I wrote a story故事 about vaccines疫苗
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大約十年前,我在《紐約客》上寫一篇
04:02
for The New Yorker紐約客. A little story故事.
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關於疫苗的小故事
04:04
And I was amazed吃驚 to find opposition反對:
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但我驚訝地發現,竟然有那麼多人反對我
04:06
opposition反對 to what is, after all,
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他們反對的是
04:09
the most effective有效 public上市 health健康 measure測量 in human人的 history歷史.
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人類史上最有效的公共衛生預防措施
04:12
I didn't know what to do,
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我當時不知該怎麼做
04:14
so I just did what I do: I wrote a story故事 and I moved移動 on.
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我就只做自己該做的。故事寫完,繼續搞其他事
04:17
And soon不久 after that,
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不久之後,
04:20
I wrote a story故事 about genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐飲.
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我寫了一個關於基因轉殖食物的文章
04:22
Same相同 thing, only bigger.
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同樣地,我又收到大量的反對聲浪,比上次還要大
04:24
People were going crazy.
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人們簡直瘋了
04:26
So I wrote a story故事 about that too,
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於是,我也就此寫了一篇文章
04:28
and I couldn't不能 understand理解 why
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我實在搞不懂
04:30
people thought this was "Frankenfoods弗蘭肯,"
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為何人們會把這看作「科學怪人食物」?
04:32
why they thought moving移動 molecules分子 around
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我不理解: 為何人們會認為,以特定的方式移動生物分子
04:34
in a specific具體, rather than a haphazard偶然 way,
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而非按任意的方式,
04:37
was trespassing on nature's大自然 ground地面.
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就是在玩弄自然
04:40
But, you know, I do what I do. I wrote the story故事, I moved移動 on.
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不過,你知道,我還是做我該做的。故事寫完,我就不管了。
04:42
I mean, I'm a journalist記者.
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我是個記者,
04:44
We type類型, we file文件, we go to dinner晚餐. It's fine.
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我們的工作就是打字、發表、吃飯,就這樣。
04:47
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
04:50
But these stories故事 bothered困擾 me,
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但,這些故事還是困擾著我
04:52
and I couldn't不能 figure數字 out why, and eventually終於 I did.
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我也不知道是什麼原因,直到後來我才知道爲什麽。
04:54
And that's because those fanatics狂熱分子 that were driving主動 me crazy
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因為,那些曾把我逼瘋的狂熱分子
04:57
weren't actually其實 fanatics狂熱分子 at all.
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事實上並非狂熱分子
04:59
They were thoughtful周到 people, educated博學 people, decent正經 people.
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他們都是有想法的人、受過教育的人、正經人。
05:02
They were exactly究竟 like the people in this room房間.
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他們完全就像這房裡的所有人,
05:06
And it just disturbed不安 me so much.
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這實在讓我傷透腦筋...
05:08
But then I thought, you know, let's be honest誠實.
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但後來我想,不如打開天窗說亮話吧:
05:11
We're at a point in this world世界
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在我們今天所處的時代
05:13
where we don't have the same相同 relationship關係 to progress進展 that we used to.
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我們與進步的關係已經不同於以往了,
05:16
We talk about it ambivalently持矛盾.
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我們現在以一種矛盾的情緒談論它,
05:18
We talk about it in ironic具有諷刺意味 terms條款 with little quotes報價 around it:
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我們以諷刺的口吻來引用進步:
05:20
"progress進展."
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“進步” (加上引號)
05:23
Okay, there are reasons原因 for that, and I think we know what those reasons原因 are.
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好吧,我想這是有原因的,我們也知道原因是什麼
05:26
We've我們已經 lost丟失 faith信仰 in institutions機構,
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我們對於政府機構
05:28
in authority權威,
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已失去信任,
05:30
and sometimes有時 in science科學 itself本身,
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有時對科學本身也是,
05:32
and there's no reason原因 we shouldn't不能 have.
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我們確實有不信任的理由,
05:34
You can just say a few少數 names
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說出幾個名字
05:36
and people will understand理解.
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你就知道原因為何了
05:38
Chernobyl切爾諾貝利, Bhopal博帕爾, the Challenger挑戰者,
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車諾比、博帕爾、挑戰者號、
05:41
Vioxx萬絡, weapons武器 of mass destruction毀壞,
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Vioxx 抗關節炎藥、大規模殺傷性武器,
05:44
hanging chads紙屑.
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充滿太多爭議
05:46
You know, you can choose選擇 your list名單.
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你可以列出自己的清單
05:49
There are questions問題 and problems問題
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我們過去深深確信的
05:51
with the people we used to believe were always right,
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現在都出問題了
05:53
so be skeptical懷疑的.
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所以,還是保持懷疑吧
05:56
Ask questions問題, demand需求 proof證明, demand需求 evidence證據.
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詢問問題、要求證據、
05:59
Don't take anything for granted理所當然.
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千萬別凡事信以為真
06:01
But here's這裡的 the thing: When you get proof證明,
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但要注意一點: 當你取得證據時
06:04
you need to accept接受 the proof證明, and we're not that good at doing that.
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你必須接受那樣的證據。我們卻並不善於這麼做。
06:07
And the reason原因 that I can say that is because
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究其原因,我認為
06:09
we're now in an epidemic疫情 of fear恐懼
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我們現在都得了一種恐懼傳染病
06:11
like one I've never seen看到 and hope希望 never to see again.
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一種我從未見過的、以後也不想再見的恐懼傳染病
06:14
About 12 years年份 ago, there was a story故事 published發表,
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大約十二年前,媒體報導一則消息
06:16
a horrible可怕 story故事,
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一個非常可怕的故事
06:18
that linked關聯 the epidemic疫情 of autism自閉症
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它把自閉症
06:21
to the measles麻疹, mumps腮腺炎 and rubella風疹 vaccine疫苗 shot射擊.
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和注射麻疹、腮腺炎、德國麻疹等疫苗連結在一起
06:24
Very scary害怕.
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非常可怕
06:26
Tons of studies學習 were doneDONE to see if this was true真正.
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爲了查明此事,人們展開大量研究
06:29
Tons of studies學習 should have been doneDONE; it's a serious嚴重 issue問題.
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是有必要做這些大量研究,因為那確實是一個嚴重的議題
06:32
The data數據 came來了 back.
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最後資料出來了
06:34
The data數據 came來了 back from the United聯合的 States狀態, from England英國,
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來自美國、英國、
06:36
from Sweden瑞典, from Canada加拿大,
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瑞典、加拿大的資料檢驗出同樣的結論:
06:38
and it was all the same相同: no correlation相關,
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自閉症和疫苗二者之間沒有關聯,
06:40
no connection連接, none沒有 at all.
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毫無聯繫,根本毫不相關
06:42
It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
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但這個結果對大眾沒多大意義
06:44
because we believe anecdotes軼事,
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因為我們相信小道消息,
06:46
we believe what we see, what we think we see,
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我們相信眼睛看到的、相信心裡所見到的、
06:48
what makes品牌 us feel real真實.
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相信那些讓我們覺得真實的東西
06:50
We don't believe a bunch of documents文件
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就是不相信一堆化驗資料
06:52
from a government政府 official官方 giving us data數據,
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不相信來自政府部門的檔案
06:54
and I do understand理解 that, I think we all do.
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而我也理解這一點,我想我們所有人都理解這點
06:56
But you know what?
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可是你知道嗎?
06:58
The result結果 of that has been disastrous慘重.
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這導致了災難性的後果
07:00
Disastrous慘重 because here's這裡的 a fact事實:
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說它災難,因為這裡有個事實:
07:03
The United聯合的 States狀態 is one of the only countries國家 in the world世界
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美國是世界上唯一一個
07:05
where the vaccine疫苗 rate for measles麻疹 is going down.
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麻疹接種率正在下降的國家
07:08
That is disgraceful可恥,
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這實在令人羞愧
07:10
and we should be ashamed羞愧 of ourselves我們自己.
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我們應該為此感到慚愧
07:12
It's horrible可怕.
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這很可怕
07:14
What kind of a thing happened發生
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到底發生什麼事
07:16
that we could do that?
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才使我們這麼做?
07:18
Now, I understand理解 it. I do understand理解 it.
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現在,我明白了。真的明白了。
07:21
Because, did anyone任何人 have measles麻疹 here?
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請問這裡有人得過麻疹嗎?
07:23
Has one person in this audience聽眾 ever seen看到 someone有人 die of measles麻疹?
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你們當中,有人看過某人罹患麻疹死去嗎?
07:26
Doesn't happen發生 very much.
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不經常發生吧
07:28
Doesn't happen發生 in this country國家 at all,
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事實上它也不會發生在這個國家
07:30
but it happened發生 160,000 times in the world世界 last year.
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然而,過去一年裡,有十六萬人罹患麻疹而死去
07:32
That's a lot of death死亡 of measles麻疹 --
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這是一個非常大量的麻疹致死率
07:34
20 an hour小時.
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基本上,每小時有20人因此死去
07:36
But since以來 it didn't happen發生 here, we can put it out of our minds頭腦,
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但因為它不在我們生活周遭,我們可以不管這件事
07:39
and people like Jenny珍妮 McCarthy麥卡錫
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像 Jenny McCarthy 那樣的人
07:41
can go around preaching說教 messages消息
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依然能夠在
07:43
of fear恐懼 and illiteracy文盲 from platforms平台
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歐普拉和賴瑞·金的節目上
07:45
like "Oprah奧普拉" and "Larry拉里 King國王 Live生活."
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散播恐懼和無知的資訊
07:48
And they can do it because
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他們之所以這麼做
07:50
they don't link鏈接 causation因果關係 and correlation相關.
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是因為,他們沒有把原因與關聯性連結在一起
07:52
They don't understand理解 that these things seem似乎 the same相同,
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他們不瞭解這些看起來似是而非的東西
07:55
but they're almost幾乎 never the same相同.
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事實上從來都不是相同的東西
07:57
And it's something we need to learn學習, and we need to learn學習 it really soon不久.
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我們必須從中汲取教訓,越早越好
08:00
This guy was a hero英雄, Jonas喬納斯 Salk索爾克.
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這位先生是個英雄, Jonas Salk
08:03
He took one of the worst最差 scourges禍害 of mankind人類 away from us.
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他發明小兒麻痹的疫苗,使我們避免了最嚴重的禍害
08:06
No fear恐懼, no agony痛苦. Polio脊髓灰質炎 -- puff, gone走了.
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再也沒有恐懼,再也沒有痛楚,小兒麻痹消失了
08:09
That guy in the middle中間, not so much.
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中間那個男人就沒那麼風光了 (圖標: 恐怖分子)
08:12
His name名稱 is Paul保羅 OffitOffit.
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他叫 Paul Offit
08:14
He just developed發達 a rotavirus輪狀病毒 vaccine疫苗 with a bunch of other people.
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他與其他一票同仁一起發明了輪狀病毒疫苗
08:16
It'll它會 save保存 the lives生活 of 400 to 500,000 kids孩子
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這疫苗每年可以在發展中國家
08:19
in the developing發展 world世界 every一切 year.
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拯救四億五十萬孩子的生命
08:21
Pretty漂亮 good, right?
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聽起來是好事,不是嗎?
08:23
Well, it's good, except that Paul保羅 goes around talking about vaccines疫苗
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確實很好,除了Paul 到處宣傳這一疫苗
08:25
and says how valuable有價值 they are
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說它有多好
08:27
and that people ought應該 to just stop the whining嗚嗚.
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並稱人們從此可以告別苦楚
08:29
And he actually其實 says it that way.
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他確實是這麼說的
08:31
So, Paul's保羅 a terrorist恐怖分子.
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於是,我們把 Paul 當成恐怖分子
08:34
When Paul保羅 speaks說話 in a public上市 hearing聽力,
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當 Paul 公開作證時
08:36
he can't testify作證 without armed武裝 guards衛士.
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他身邊必須要有武裝保安
08:38
He gets得到 called at home
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他在家裡會接到恐嚇電話
08:40
because people like to tell him
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因為,有人會跟他說
08:42
that they remember記得 where his kids孩子 go to school學校.
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他們知道他孩子在哪上學
08:44
And why? Because Paul保羅 made製作 a vaccine疫苗.
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為什麼? 因為 Paul 發明了一種疫苗
08:47
I don't need to say this, but vaccines疫苗 are essential必要.
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我本不需要講這個的,但疫苗確實極其重要,
08:50
You take them away, disease疾病 comes back,
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一旦停止疫苗注射,疾病又會捲土重來,
08:52
horrible可怕 diseases疾病. And that's happening事件.
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並且是非常可怕的疾病,這樣的事正在發生
08:55
We have measles麻疹 in this country國家 now.
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現在美國也出現麻疹了
08:57
And it's getting得到 worse更差, and pretty漂亮 soon不久 kids孩子
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而且情況越來越糟
08:59
are going to die of it again because it's just a numbers數字 game遊戲.
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不久之後,就會有孩子罹患此病而死,因為這只是數字遊戲罷了
09:01
And they're not just going to die of measles麻疹.
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不僅僅是麻疹,
09:03
What about polio脊髓灰質炎? Let's have that. Why not?
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還有小兒麻痹症呢! 誰敢說它不會重新出現?
09:05
A college學院 classmate同學 of mine wrote me a couple一對 weeks ago and said
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幾個星期前,我的一位大學同學寫信給我說
09:08
she thought I was a little strident刺耳.
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她覺得我現在有點太張揚了
09:10
No one's那些 ever said that before.
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以前沒人這麼說過
09:13
She wasn't going to vaccinate接種疫苗 her kid孩子 against反對 polio脊髓灰質炎,
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她說她不打算給孩子接種小兒麻痹症疫苗
09:15
no way.
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絕對不會
09:17
Fine.
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好吧
09:19
Why? Because we don't have polio脊髓灰質炎. And you know what?
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為什麼? 因為這個國家沒有小兒麻痹症。但你知道嗎?
09:21
We didn't have polio脊髓灰質炎 in this country國家 yesterday昨天.
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昨天,我們沒有這個傳染病
09:24
Today今天, I don't know, maybe a guy got on a plane平面 in Lagos拉各斯 this morning早上,
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但今天? 我不知道,也許某人今早從 Lagos 上了飛機
09:27
and he's flying飛行 to LAXLAX, right now he's over Ohio俄亥俄州.
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飛到洛杉磯機場,現在差不多抵達俄亥俄州
09:29
And he's going to land土地 in a couple一對 of hours小時, he's going to rent出租 a car汽車,
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幾個小時後,他的飛機就要降落,他會租一輛車
09:32
and he's going to come to Long Beach海灘,
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來到 Long Beach
09:34
and he's going to attend出席 one of these fabulous極好 TEDTED dinners晚餐 tonight今晚.
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來到這裡參加今晚其中一場超棒的 TED 晚宴
09:37
And he doesn't know that he's infected感染 with a paralytic癱子 disease疾病,
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他不知道自己感染了小兒麻痹症
09:40
and we don't either because that's the way the world世界 works作品.
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我們也不知道,因為這就是世界運作的方式
09:43
That's the planet行星 we live生活 on. Don't pretend假裝 it isn't.
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這就是地球運轉的方式。別假裝它不是。
09:46
Now, we love to wrap ourselves我們自己 in lies. We love to do it.
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如今,我們喜歡相信謊言。我們超愛這麼做
09:49
Everyone大家 take their vitamins維生素 this morning早上?
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你們每個人早上都吃了維他命嗎?
09:51
Echinacea松果, a little antioxidant抗氧化劑
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或者紫錐花? 或是一點的抗氧化劑?
09:53
to get you going.
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吞了那些你才感覺比較清醒
09:55
I know you did because half of Americans美國人 do every一切 day.
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你之所以這麼做,是因為每天有半數的美國人也這麼做
09:58
They take the stuff東東, and they take alternative替代 medicines藥品,
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他們會吃這些東西,也會吃替代藥物
10:01
and it doesn't matter how often經常
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而且不管我們都已經知道
10:03
we find out that they're useless無用.
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事實上這些東西是無效的
10:05
The data數據 says it all the time.
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資料是這麼說的
10:07
They darken變暗 your urine尿. They almost幾乎 never do more than that.
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吃這些只會使得你的尿液顏色變深。除此以外,它們起不了任何作用
10:10
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:12
It's okay, you want to pay工資 28 billion十億 dollars美元 for dark黑暗 urine尿?
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假如你願意花280億美元獲得一些深色尿液,
10:15
I'm totally完全 with you.
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我一點也不反對
10:17
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:19
Dark黑暗 urine尿. Dark黑暗.
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深色的尿液,深色...
10:22
Why do we do that? Why do we do that?
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我們幹嘛這麼做? 為什麼要做這些?
10:24
Well, I think I understand理解, we hate討厭 Big Pharma製藥.
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嗯,我想我能理解,我們都討厭大藥商
10:26
We hate討厭 Big Government政府. We don't trust相信 the Man.
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我們都討厭大政府,我們不信任這些人
10:28
And we shouldn't不能: Our health健康 care關心 system系統 sucks.
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而我們也不需要。我們的健保系統很爛
10:31
It's cruel殘忍 to millions百萬 of people.
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對幾百萬人來說,這是一個殘酷的系統
10:33
It's absolutely絕對 astonishingly令人驚訝 cold
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而對於那些能夠支付起的人們來說
10:36
and soul-bending靈魂彎曲 to those of us who can even afford給予 it.
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這也絕對是一個非常冷酷無情的系統
10:39
So we run away from it, and where do we run?
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於是我們就想辦法逃離。但要逃到哪裡去呢?
10:42
We leap飛躍 into the arms武器 of Big Placebo安慰劑.
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我們投入巨大安慰劑的懷抱之中。
10:44
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:47
That's fantastic奇妙. I love Big Placebo安慰劑.
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了不起。我喜歡大安慰劑。
10:49
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
10:54
But, you know, it's really a serious嚴重 thing
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但你知道,這真是一件嚴重的事
10:57
because this stuff東東 is crap擲骰子,
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因為這東西是一個爛貨
10:59
and we spend billions數十億 of dollars美元 on it.
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但我們卻花了數以億計的美元來購買安慰劑
11:01
And I have all sorts排序 of little props道具 here.
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我也帶來了各種各樣的樣品
11:04
None沒有 of it ... ginkgo銀杏, fraud舞弊;
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它們當中,沒有一樣是有效的,無論是銀杏、
11:06
echinacea松果, fraud舞弊;
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紫錐花、
11:08
acai阿薩伊 -- I don't even know what that is
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巴西紫莓...都沒用。我甚至不知道這是什麼,
11:10
but we're spending開支 billions數十億 of dollars美元 on it -- it's fraud舞弊.
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但我們花數十億美元購買它們,這簡直是詐騙
11:13
And you know what? When I say this stuff東東, people scream驚叫 at me,
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但你知道嗎? 當我說到這時,人們對我大吼
11:15
and they say, "What do you care關心? Let people do what they want to do.
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他們說:「你管他們幹嘛? 讓人們做自己要做的事就好啦,
11:18
It makes品牌 them feel good."
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這至少讓他們心裡感到舒服啊。」
11:20
And you know what? You're wrong錯誤.
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但你知道嗎? 你錯了。
11:22
Because I don't care關心
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因為我一點也不在乎
11:24
if it's the secretary秘書 of HHSHHS
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假使美國健康與公共事業部部長
11:26
who's誰是 saying, "Hmm, I'm not going to take the evidence證據
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說:「呃,我才不管專家
11:29
of my experts專家 on mammograms乳房X光檢查,"
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找到的關於乳房X線照片的證據呢,」
11:31
or some cancer癌症 quack嘎嘎 who wants to treat對待 his patient患者
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或是一個癌症庸醫想通過
11:34
with coffee咖啡 enemas灌腸.
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咖啡灌腸來醫治他的病人。
11:36
When you start開始 down the road
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假如你相信信仰和魔術
11:38
where belief信仰 and magic魔法 replace更換 evidence證據 and science科學,
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而非證據與科學的話,
11:41
you end結束 up in a place地點 you don't want to be.
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你最終只會來到一個你不想去的地方
11:43
You end結束 up in Thabo薩波 Mbeki姆貝基 South Africa非洲.
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你最終會來到姆貝基的南非 (Thabo Mbeki: 南非前總統)
11:45
He killed殺害 400,000 of his people
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對於治療愛滋病,他因為堅信
11:48
by insisting堅持 that beetroot紅菜頭,
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甜菜、蒜頭、和檸檬油
11:50
garlic大蒜 and lemon檸檬 oil
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比我們所知的可延緩愛滋病的
11:52
were much more effective有效 than the antiretroviral抗逆轉錄病毒 drugs毒品
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抗逆轉錄病毒藥物更有效
11:54
we know can slow the course課程 of AIDS艾滋病.
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而殺死了40萬人
11:56
Hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 of needless不必要 deaths死亡
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成千上萬的人
11:58
in a country國家 that has been plagued困擾
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因此而死
12:01
worse更差 than any other by this disease疾病.
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那裡剛好又是全球愛滋病最為蔓延的地區
12:03
Please, don't tell me
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請別告訴我
12:05
there are no consequences後果 to these things.
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這些不會產生嚴重後果
12:07
There are. There always are.
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後果是有的 ,終究會有
12:09
Now, the most mindless沒頭腦 epidemic疫情
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現在,我們所遇到最無知的傳染病
12:11
we're in the middle中間 of right now
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就是基因轉殖作物
12:13
is this absurd荒誕 battle戰鬥
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與有機菁英食品
12:15
between之間 proponents支持者 of genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐飲
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兩個陣營之間的
12:18
and the organic有機 elite原種.
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愚蠢對抗
12:20
It's an idiotic debate辯論. It has to stop.
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這也是一個愚蠢的爭論,我們必須停止。
12:22
It's a debate辯論 about words, about metaphors隱喻.
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因為這個辯論只是針對字眼和隱喻
12:25
It's ideology思想, it's not science科學.
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是關於意識形態的爭辯,而不是科學。
12:27
Every一切 single thing we eat, every一切 grain糧食 of rice白飯,
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我們吃進肚子裡的每一樣東西,每一顆穀物或飯粒
12:29
every一切 sprig小枝 of parsley香菜,
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每一根香菜
12:31
every一切 Brussels布魯塞爾 sprout發芽
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每一顆球芽甘欖菜
12:33
has been modified改性 by man.
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都曾被人類改變過
12:35
You know, there weren't tangerines蜜桔 in the garden花園 of Eden伊甸園.
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你知道,在伊甸園裡本來是沒有橘子的、
12:37
There wasn't any cantaloupe哈密​​瓜. (Laughter笑聲)
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沒有哈密瓜、
12:39
There weren't Christmas聖誕 trees樹木. We made製作 it all.
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更不會有聖誕樹,這些都是人造出來的
12:42
We made製作 it over the last 11,000 years年份.
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人類在過去一萬一千年裡造出了這些東西
12:45
And some of it worked工作, and some of it didn't.
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有些實驗成功,有些失敗
12:47
We got rid擺脫 of the stuff東東 that didn't.
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那些失敗的嘗試就被拋棄
12:49
Now we can do it in a more precise精確 way --
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而現在我們可以以一種更為精確的方式來做實驗
12:51
and there are risks風險, absolutely絕對 --
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這絕對會有風險
12:53
but we can put something like vitamin維他命 A into rice白飯,
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但我們可以把維他命A置入水稻裡,
12:56
and that stuff東東 can help millions百萬 of people,
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這會幫助數百萬人
12:59
millions百萬 of people, prolong延長 their lives生活.
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延長他們的壽命
13:02
You don't want to do that?
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你不願做這件事嗎?
13:04
I have to say, I don't understand理解 it.
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我必須說,我實在搞不懂。
13:07
We object目的 to genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐飲.
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我們反對基因作物
13:09
Why do we do that?
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為什麼?
13:11
Well, the things I constantly經常 hear are:
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嗯,我經常聽到的理由是:
13:13
Too many許多 chemicals化學製品,
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含有太多化學成分、
13:15
pesticides農藥, hormones激素,
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太多農藥、荷爾蒙、
13:17
monoculture單一種植, we don't want giant巨人 fields領域
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單一作物、我們不要巨大單一的農田
13:19
of the same相同 thing, that's wrong錯誤.
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確實,那樣不好
13:21
We don't companies公司 patenting專利 life.
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我們不想讓大公司申請作物專利
13:23
We don't want companies公司 owning擁有 seeds種子.
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我們也不想讓大公司壟斷種子
13:25
And you know what my response響應 to all of that is?
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你知道我對所有這些意見的回應是什麽嗎?
13:27
Yes, you're right. Let's fix固定 it.
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對,猜對了,我們一起來解決這些問題
13:30
It's true真正, we've我們已經 got a huge巨大 food餐飲 problem問題,
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的確,我們遇到一個非常嚴重的食物問題,
13:32
but this isn't science科學.
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但這不是科學,
13:34
This has nothing to do with science科學.
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這與科學無關
13:36
It's law, it's morality道德, it's patent專利 stuff東東.
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這是法律、倫理、專利法的問題
13:39
You know science科學 isn't a company公司.
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要知道,科學並非一家公司,
13:41
It's not a country國家.
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也不是一個國家,
13:43
It's not even an idea理念; it's a process處理.
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甚至不是一個想法,它是一個過程
13:46
It's a process處理, and sometimes有時 it works作品 and sometimes有時 it doesn't,
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這過程有時成功,有時失敗,
13:49
but the idea理念 that we should not allow允許
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但由於我們畏懼
13:52
science科學 to do its job工作
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而認為我們不該讓科學家
13:54
because we're afraid害怕,
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去做深入研究工作的這個想法
13:56
is really very deadening隔音材料,
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是非常可怕的,
13:58
and it's preventing防止 millions百萬 of people
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這也會阻礙數百萬人
14:00
from prospering繁榮.
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走向繁榮
14:02
You know, in the next下一個 50 years年份
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你知道嗎? 未來的五十年
14:04
we're going to have to grow增長 70 percent百分 more food餐飲 than we do right now,
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我們需要比現在種植
14:07
70 percent百分.
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70%更多的糧食
14:09
This investment投資 in Africa非洲 over the last 30 years年份.
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這是過去三十年在非洲的農業投資總額
14:12
Disgraceful可恥. Disgraceful可恥.
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令人慚愧,令人慚愧
14:14
They need it, and we're not giving it to them.
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他們需要,我們卻偏偏不給
14:16
And why? Genetically基因 engineered工程 food餐飲.
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為什麼? 因為那是基因食物
14:19
We don't want to encourage鼓勵 people
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我們不鼓勵人們去
14:21
to eat that rotten stuff東東, like cassava木薯 for instance.
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吃腐爛的食物,比如,壞掉的木薯
14:24
Cassava's木薯的 something that half a billion十億 people eat.
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世界上有五千萬人是靠吃木薯為生的
14:26
It's kind of like a potato土豆.
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那是一種類似馬鈴薯的作物
14:28
It's just a bunch of calories卡路里. It sucks.
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就只有一堆卡路里,非常難吃
14:30
It doesn't have nutrients營養成分, it doesn't have protein蛋白,
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沒有營養,也沒有蛋白質,
14:32
and scientists科學家們 are engineering工程
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而現在,有科學家正嘗試
14:34
all of that into it right now.
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把這些營養素加到木薯裡
14:36
And then people would be able能夠 to eat it and they'd他們會 be able能夠 to not go blind.
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吃到這些改良木薯的人就以避免失明
14:39
They wouldn't不會 starve餓死, and you know what?
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也不再挨餓。你知道嗎?
14:41
That would be nice不錯. It wouldn't不會 be Chez切斯 PanissePanisse餐廳,
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這是好事。雖然比不上 Chez Panisse (高檔餐廳)
14:44
but it would be nice不錯.
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但也是好事一樁
14:48
And all I can say about this is:
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我只能說,
14:50
Why are we fighting戰鬥 it?
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為什麼我們要反對呢?
14:52
I mean, let's ask ourselves我們自己: Why are we fighting戰鬥 it?
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請大家問問自己: 我們為何要反對?
14:54
Because we don't want to move移動 genes基因 around?
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因為我們不想移動基因組嗎?
14:56
This is about moving移動 genes基因 around. It's not about chemicals化學製品.
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這只是移動一些基因組罷了,不是添加化學物質
14:59
It's not about our ridiculous荒謬 passion for hormones激素,
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跟我們荒謬熱愛的荷爾蒙也毫無瓜葛
15:02
our insistence堅持 on having bigger food餐飲,
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我們總是要求獲得更大的食物、
15:04
better food餐飲, singular單數 food餐飲.
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更好的食物、更專一的食物
15:06
This isn't about Rice白飯 Krispies脆片,
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這和 Rice Krispies (棉花糖米香) 無關,
15:08
this is about keeping保持 people alive,
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而是試著讓人活下來
15:10
and it's about time we started開始 to understand理解 what that meant意味著.
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現在是我們認真理解這件事的時刻了
15:13
Because, you know something?
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因為,你知道嗎?
15:15
If we don't, if we continue繼續 to act法案 the way we're acting演戲,
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假如我們不這麼做,而是堅持現在的做法,
15:18
we're guilty有罪 of something that I don't think we want to be guilty有罪 of:
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我們未來將會因為一些我們不希望發生的事情而感到負罪感
15:21
high-tech高科技 colonialism殖民主義.
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高科技殖民主義
15:23
There's no other way to describe描述 what's going on here.
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沒有其他別的詞語更合適於描述這一狀況了
15:25
It's selfish自私, it's ugly醜陋,
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這是自私的、骯髒的
15:27
it's beneath下面 us,
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使我們變得卑劣
15:29
and we really have to stop it.
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我們必須停止這麼做
15:32
So after this amazingly令人驚訝 fun開玩笑 conversation會話,
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好了,在這麼一場超級有趣的對話之後,
15:35
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
15:37
you might威力 want to say, "So, you still want to get in this
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你也許會說:「你還想走進這臺荒謬的時間機器,
15:39
ridiculous荒謬 time machine and go forward前鋒?"
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駛入未來嗎?」
15:41
Absolutely絕對. Absolutely絕對, I do.
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那當然,我絕對會那麼做。
15:44
It's stuck卡住 in the present當下 right now,
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這機器現在停在當下,
15:46
but we have an amazing驚人 opportunity機會.
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但我們遇到非常好的機會
15:48
We can set that time machine on anything we want.
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我們可以按自己的意願設置時間機器
15:51
We can move移動 it where we want to move移動 it,
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想去哪就去哪
15:53
and we're going to move移動 it where we want to move移動 it.
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我們可以抵達我們真正要去的地方
15:55
We have to have these conversations對話 and we have to think,
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我們需要開展對話,我們需要思考,
15:58
but when we get in the time machine and we go ahead,
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當我們進入時間機器,並且走向未來時,
16:01
we're going to be happy快樂 we do.
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我們會為我們的選擇感到高興,
16:03
I know that we can,
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我相信我們可以,
16:05
and as far as I'm concerned關心,
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而就我的理解,
16:07
that's something the world世界 needs需求 right now.
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這就是現在世界所需要的東西。
16:10
(Applause掌聲)
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謝謝大家
16:12
Thank you.
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(掌聲)
16:15
Thank you.
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謝謝
16:17
Thank you. Thank you.
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(掌聲)
Translated by Geoff Chen
Reviewed by Coco Shen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Specter - Writer
Michael Specter is a staff writer for the New Yorker. His new book, Denialism, asks why we have increasingly begun to fear scientific advances instead of embracing them.

Why you should listen

Michael Specter's new book, Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Hinders Scientific Progress, Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Livesdives into a worrisome strain of modern life -- a vocal anti-science bias that may prevent us from making the right choices for our future. Specter studies how the active movements against vaccines, genetically engineered food, science-based medicine and biotechnological solutions to climate change may actually put the world at risk. (For instance, anti-vaccination activists could soon trigger the US return of polio, not to mention the continuing rise of measles.) More insidiously, the chilling effect caused by the new denialism may prevent useful science from being accomplished.

Specter has been a writer for the New Yorker for more than a decade; before that, he was a science writer and then the Moscow bureau chief for the New York Times. He writes about science and politics for the New Yorker, with a fascinating sideline in biographical profiles.

More profile about the speaker
Michael Specter | Speaker | TED.com