TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
Sir Martin Rees: Je tunaweza kuzuia mwisho wa Dunia?
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Baada ya mwisho wa dunia, binadamu hawapo, inaonekana kama kitu cha sayansi ya kubuniwa ya TV na filamu. Lakini katika maelezo haya mafupi na ya kushangaza, Lord Martin Rees anatuuliza tuwaze maafa yanayoweza kutukumba-- ya asili na ya kutengenezwa yanayoweza kufanya binadamu wote watoweke. Kama binadamu anayefuatilia vizuri yanayoendelea, anauliza: Ni kitu gani kibaya zaidi kinaweza kutokea?
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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Miaka kumi iliyopita, niliandika kitabu
nilichokipa jina
nilichokipa jina
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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"Karne yetu ya mwisho?" Alama ya kuuliza.
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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Wachapishaji wa kitabu hiki waliondoa
alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko)
alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko)
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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Wachapishaji wa Marekani
walibadili jina
walibadili jina
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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na kuwa "Lisaa Letu la Mwisho".
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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Wamarekani hupenda kuridhishwa haraka na
kinyume.
kinyume.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Vicheko)
00:32
And my theme was this:
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Na ujumbe wangu ulikuwa huu:
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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Dunia yetu imekuwepo kwa karne milioni 45,
00:38
but this one is special —
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lakini hii hapa ni maalumu ---
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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ni ya kwanza ambayo jamii moja, yetu,
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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ina mustakabali wa sayari mikononi mwake.
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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Zaidi karibia ya historia yote ya Dunia,
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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vitisho vimetoka kwenye mazingira,
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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magonjwa, mitetemeko ya ardhi na
mengine mengi --
mengine mengi --
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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lakini kuanzia sasa, hatari kubwa
inatoka kwetu.
inatoka kwetu.
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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Na sasa sio matisho tu ya nuklia;
01:02
in our interconnected world,
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kwenye dunia yetu iliyoungana,
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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kuvunjika kwa mitandao kunaweza
sambaa duniani;
sambaa duniani;
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
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usafiri wa anga unaweza kusambaza magonjwa
dunia nzima ndani ya siku;
dunia nzima ndani ya siku;
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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na mitandao ya kijamii inaweza kusambaza
vitisho na uzushi
vitisho na uzushi
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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kihalisi kama kasi ya mwanga.
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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Tunagombana sana kuhusu matatizo madogo --
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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uwezekano wa ndege kudondoka,
kemikali kwenye chakula,
kemikali kwenye chakula,
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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dozi ndogo za mionzi, na kadhalika --
01:27
but we and our political masters
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lakini sisi na wakuu wetu wa siasa
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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tupo kwenye kukana kuhusu hali za majanga.
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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Bahati nzuri mabaya hayajatokea bado.
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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Kweli, pengine hayatatokea.
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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Lakini kama tukio lina maafa makubwa,
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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linastahili kupewa faida kubwa
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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kulinda dhidi yake, hata kama
inaweza isitokee,
inaweza isitokee,
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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kama tunavyotoa bima ya moto kwenye
nyumba yetu.
nyumba yetu.
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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Kama sayansi inavyoleta nguvu kubwa
na ahadi,
na ahadi,
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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upande wa chini unazidi kuogopesha pia.
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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Tunazidi kuwa dhaifu na waoga,
02:05
Within a few decades,
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Ndani ya miongo michache,
02:06
millions will have the capability
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mamilioni watakuwa na uwezo,
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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wa kutumia vibaya bioteknolojia inayokua,
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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Kama wanavyotumia teknolojia vibaya leo.
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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Freeman Dyson, kwenye mazungumzo ya TED,
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
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aliona kuwa huko mbeleni watoto
wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai
wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
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kama ambavyo kizazi chake
kilivyocheza na seti za kemia.
kilivyocheza na seti za kemia.
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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Hii inaweza kuwa sayansi ya kubuniwa
zaidi,
zaidi,
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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lakini tuna amini itatokea hata kwa kiasi,
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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mazingira yetu na hata viumbe vyetu
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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hawataweza kuishi muda mrefu
bila kubadilika,
bila kubadilika,
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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Mfano, kuna wanamazingira wengi
wa msimamo mkali,
wa msimamo mkali,
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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wanaomini kua itafaa kwa sayari yetu,
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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kwa Gaia, kama kutakuwa na binadamu
wachache.
wachache.
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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Nini kitatokea kama watu hawa wakifuzu
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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ufundi wa kibiolojia za sanisia
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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ambao utasambaa ifikapo mwaka 2050?
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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Kipindi hicho, matisho mengine ya sayansi
ya kubuniwa
ya kubuniwa
03:00
may transition to reality:
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yanaweza kugeuka kweli:
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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roboti za kijinga kujiongoza zenyewe,
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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au mtandao unaotumia akili yake yenyewe
03:06
threatens us all.
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unatutisha sote.
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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Je, tutaweza kujikinga na hizi
hatari kwa sheria?
hatari kwa sheria?
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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Itabidi tujaribu, lakini hizi biashara
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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zina ushindani mkubwa, zipo dunia nzima,
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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na zinasukumwa na mbinu za biashara,
03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
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kwa kila kinachoweza kufanyika,
kitafanyika mahali,
kitafanyika mahali,
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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bila kujali sheria zinasema nini.
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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Ni kama sheria za madawa -- tunajaribu
kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi.
kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi.
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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Na kijiji cha dunia kitakua na
wajinga wa kijiji,
wajinga wa kijiji,
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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nao watakua na masafa ya dunia.
03:35
So as I said in my book,
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Kama nilivyosema kwenye kitabu changu,
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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tutakuwa na mwendo mtata kwenye hii karne.
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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Kunaweza kuwa na vikwazo kwenye
jamii yetu --
jamii yetu --
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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kweli, asilimia 50 ya vikwazo zikali.
03:48
But are there conceivable events
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Lakini kuna matukio ya maana
03:51
that could be even worse,
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yanayoweza kuwa mabaya zaidi,
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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matukio yanayoweza kutoa maisha yote?
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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Pale punje mpya chochezi iikija mtandaoni,
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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badhi ya watu walijiuliza kwa bidii,
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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vinaweza kuharibu dunia, au mbaya zaidi,
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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kuharibu kabisa mfumo wa anga?
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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Bahati nzuri, tuliweza kujihakikishia.
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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Mimi na wenzangu tulisema kua asili
04:11
has done the same experiments
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imefanya majaribio kama hayo
04:13
zillions of times already,
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mara zilioni tayari,
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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kutumia kugongana kwa miali ya anga.
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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Lakini wanasayansi wanatakiwa wawe makini
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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kuhusu majaribio yanayotengeneza hali
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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bila uhakiki kwenye dunia ya halisi.
04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
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Wanabiolojia wanatakiwa kuepuka kuachia
uharibifu muhimu wa
uharibifu muhimu wa
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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vimelea vilivyoundwa kijenetiki.
04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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Na pia, karaha yetu ya kipekee
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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kwenye hatari ya mafaa makubwa
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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inatokana na swali hili kubwa la msingi,
04:42
and it's this:
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nalo ni;
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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Zingatia hali mbili.
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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Hali A inaua asilimia 90 ya binadamu.
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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Hali B inaua asilimia 100.
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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Je B ni mbaya kiasi gani kuliko A?
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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Baadhi watasema ni asilimia 10 mbaya
zaidi.
zaidi.
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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Idadi ni asilimia 10 zaidi.
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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Lakini nasema kua B ni mbaya zaidi.
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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Kama mwanafalaki, siamini
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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binadamu ni mwisho wa hadithi.
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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Ni miaka bilioni tano mpaka jua liripuke,
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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na ulimwengu ungeendelea kuwepo,
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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kwahiyo mageuzi ya binadamu wa baadae,
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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hapa duniani na kwingineko mbali,
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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inaweza kuwa ndefu kama harakati
ya Darwinian
ya Darwinian
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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iliyokuja kwetu, na nzuri zaidi.
05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
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Na kweli, mageuzi ya mbeleni
yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi,
yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi,
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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kwenye kipimo cha mda cha teknolojia,
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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sio wa uchaguzi wa asili.
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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Kwahiyo tupo katika mwanga wa
hicho kipimo,
hicho kipimo,
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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kutokupokea hata hatari moja kati
ya billioni
ya billioni
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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ambayo kupotea kwa binadamu kutasababisha
05:46
this immense potential.
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huu uwezekano mkubwa.
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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Baadhi ya hali ambazo zilionyesha
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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kua kweli zingekua sayansi ya
kubuniwa,
kubuniwa,
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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lakini nyingine zinaweza kuwa ni za kweli.
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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Ni msemo muhimu kua vile visivyozoeleka
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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sio sawa na vinavyoshindikana,
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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na ndio maana, sisi katika Chuo cha
Cambridge,
Cambridge,
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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tunaanda kitivo cha kujifunza jinsi ya
kuepuka
kuepuka
06:06
these existential risks.
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hizi hatari kubwa.
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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Inaonekana ni ya maana kwa watu wachache
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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kuwaza kuhusu haya mafaa yanayoweza
kutokea.
kutokea.
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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Na tunahitaji msaada wote tutakaopata
kwa wengine,
kwa wengine,
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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sababu sote ni wahudumu wa,
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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kidoti cha bluu kwenye ulimwengu huu
mkubwa,
mkubwa,
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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sayari yenye karne milioni 50 mbele yake.
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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Kwa hiyo tusiharibu mustakabali wetu.
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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Na ningependa kumalizia na nukuu
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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kutoka kwa mwanasayansi mashuhuri aitwae
Peter Medawar.
Peter Medawar.
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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nanukuu "Kengengele zinazolia kwa binadamu
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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ni kama zile za mifugo ya Alpine.
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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Zimefungwa shingoni mwetu wenyewe,
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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na ni juu yetu kama hazitatengeneza
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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mfuatano mzuri wa sauti."
06:47
Thank you very much.
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Asanteni sana.
06:49
(Applause)
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(Makofi)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com