TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
馬丁•里斯爵士: 我們能阻止世界末日嗎？
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一個末日後杳無人煙的地球，更像是科幻電視和電影中的場景。但在這個簡短而充滿奇思妙想的演講中，馬丁•里斯爵士引領我們探索了那些真正影響人類生存的危機——來自自然和人為，可以使人類徹底滅亡的威脅。作為與人類命運緊緊相扣的一員，他問道：「可能發生的最糟糕的事情是什麽？」
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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十年前，我寫了一本書。
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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書名為《 我們的末世紀？》以問號結尾。
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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我的出版商去掉了問號。（笑聲）
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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美國出版商把我們的書名
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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改成了《我們的末日》。
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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美國人喜歡即刻的滿足與逆反。
00:30
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:32
And my theme was this:
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我的主題是這樣的，
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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我們的地球已經存在了四千五百多萬個世紀。
00:38
but this one is special —
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但這個世紀是特殊的，
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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第一次有一個物種，也就是我們，
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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掌握了這個星球的命運。
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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地球過去的歷史中，
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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威脅主要來源於自然——
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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疾病、地震、小行星等等——
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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但是從今往後，最大的威脅來源於我們自己。
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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現今不止是核威脅，
01:02
in our interconnected world,
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在這個相互連接的世界裡，
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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網路故障可以波及全球，
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
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航空旅行可以在幾天內將流行病傳遍世界。
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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社會媒體簡直能以光速
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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散播恐慌和謠言。
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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我們太過苦惱於那些次要的危害，
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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像是發生概率極小的空難、食品中的致癌物、
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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低輻射等等。
01:27
but we and our political masters
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但我們和政治領袖們
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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卻否認那些災難性的情節。
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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幸運的是最可怕的事情還沒有發生，
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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的確，他們可能不會發生。
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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但是如果有一件事具潛在的毀滅性，
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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那就值得我們付出大量的精力與金錢。
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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把它掐死在搖籃裡，即使它不太可能發生。
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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這就像給我們的房子買火災險。
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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科學提供了更強大的力量和保證，
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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隨之而來的負面影響也變得更加可怕，
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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我們變得更加脆弱。
02:05
Within a few decades,
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數十年之內，
02:06
millions will have the capability
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數百萬人將會有能力
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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濫用飛速發展的生物技術，
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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就像他們今天濫用網路技術一樣。
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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費裡曼•戴森在TED演講中
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
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預言孩子們會設計並創造新的有機體，
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
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就像他們那一代人擺弄化學裝置一樣平常。
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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好吧，這大概已經到科幻小說的邊緣了，
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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但是即使他情節中一小部份發生了，
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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我們的生態系統乃至整個人類種族
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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必定不會安然無恙地存活太久。
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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比如說，有一些生態極端主義者
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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認為如果能大大減少人口，
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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那會對這整個星球和大地母親更好。
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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當這樣的人掌握了
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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那些將在2050年普及的合成生物技術，
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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會發生什麽？
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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到那時，其他科幻小說中的噩夢
03:00
may transition to reality:
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也可能變為現實。
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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成了流氓的愚蠢機器人
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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或者一套發展出自我意識的網路系統
03:06
threatens us all.
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威脅我們所有人。
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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那麼，我們能不能通過條例來防範這樣的風險？
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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無疑我們必將嘗試，
但那些企業是如此求勝心切，
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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如此全球化，如此被商業壓力所驅使，
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
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以至於他們會不擇手段，
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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不管法規條例說了些什麽。
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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這就像製毒法律——我們試圖管制，但做不到。
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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地球村裡將會有些愚蠢的村民，
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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影響到整個地球。
03:35
So as I said in my book,
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所以就像我在書中所說，
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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我們會在顛簸中走完這個世紀。
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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我們的社會可能會遭遇挫折——
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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事實上，有 50% 的機率是極其嚴重的挫折。
03:48
But are there conceivable events
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但是，能否想像
03:51
that could be even worse,
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更糟糕的事件，
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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那些可以毀滅所有生命的事件？
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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當一台新的粒子加速器開始運行時，
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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有人焦急地問
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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它會毀滅地球嗎？
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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或者更糟，撕破時空的結構？
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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幸運的是對此我們可以放心，
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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我和其他一些人指出
04:11
has done the same experiments
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大自然已經將同樣的實驗
04:13
zillions of times already,
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通過宇宙射線的撞擊
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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做了無數次。
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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但是對於那些在自然界中
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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沒有先例的實驗，
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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科學家們應該警鐘長鳴，
04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
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生物學家應該預防
具有潛在毀滅性的轉基因病原體。
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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順便說一句，我們對於
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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毀滅性災難的風險尤其反感，
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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這是基於一個哲學倫理問題。
04:42
and it's this:
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這個問題是這樣的。
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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想像如下兩個場景：
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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情景 A：90%的人類會消亡；
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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情景 B：100%的人類會消亡。
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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情景 B 比情景 A 糟糕多少呢？
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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有人會說糟糕 10%，
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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因為死亡人數多 10%。
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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但我堅持情景 B 是無比糟糕的。
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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做為天文學家，我無法相信
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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人類是整個故事的結尾。
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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在太陽開始燃燒的五十億年前，宇宙就誕生了，
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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而且可能會永遠持續下去。
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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因此，在地球和及其遙遠的地方，
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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後人類的進化會被延長，
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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就像產生了我們人類的式的達爾文式進化過程，
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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甚至更加絕妙。
05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
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事實上，未來的進化會發生得更快，
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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會在一個技術時間尺度上，
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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而不是一個自然選擇的時間尺度上。
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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所以，考慮到這些重大的利害關係，
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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我們不應該接受哪怕十億分之一的風險，
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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因人類滅絕而中止了
05:46
this immense potential.
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這巨大潛力的風險。
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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有些設想中的情景
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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的確可能只會在科幻小說裡出現，
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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但其他的一些可能會是令人不安的現實。
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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一句重要的格言這麼說：
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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不熟悉不等於不可能。
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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事實上，這就是為什麽我們正在劍橋大學
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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創建一個中心來研究
06:06
these existential risks.
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如何緩解這些生存風險。
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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看來讓一小部分人
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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思考這些潛在災難是值得的。
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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我們需要可以從其他人那裡得到的所有幫助。
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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因為我們是來自茫茫宇宙中
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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那顆珍貴暗藍色圓石上的守護者，
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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一顆已經走過五千多萬個世紀的星球，
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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所以請我們不要危及它的未來。
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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我想用一段偉大科學家彼得•梅達沃的話
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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結束今天的演講，這段話是這樣的：
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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「為人類敲響的鐘
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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就像阿爾卑斯山上牛的鈴鐺，
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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繫在我們自己的脖子上。
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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如果它們沒有發出和諧悠揚的樂聲，
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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那一定是我們自己的錯。」
06:47
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝。
06:49
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com