TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
马丁·里斯爵士: 我们能阻止世界末日吗?
Filmed:
Readability: 5.3
1,283,785 views
末日后的地球，荒无人烟，这好像是科幻电视和电影中出现的场景。但是在这个简短、令人惊讶的演讲中，马丁·里斯爵士要求我们去思考一下，真实存在的风险——那些可以消灭人类的，自然和人为的威胁。作为人类中的有关成员，他问道：“可能发生的最糟糕的事情是什么？”
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
0
485
2222
十年前，我写了一本
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
1
2707
3093
名为《我们的末世纪？》的书，
书名以问号结尾
书名以问号结尾
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
2
5800
3577
但出版商把问号删掉了.（笑声）
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
3
9377
1882
这位美国出版商把书名改成了
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
4
11259
3909
《我们的最后时刻》
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
5
15168
3492
美国人喜欢即时行乐然后再反其道而行。
00:30
(Laughter)
6
18660
1708
（笑声）
00:32
And my theme was this:
7
20368
1750
我当时的主题是这样的：
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
8
22118
4166
我们的地球已经存在了
四千五百万个世纪了，
四千五百万个世纪了，
00:38
but this one is special —
9
26284
2013
但是这个世纪是最特别的——
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
10
28297
3016
第一次有一个物种，
也就是我们人类，
也就是我们人类，
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
11
31313
2802
掌控着这个星球的未来。
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
12
34115
1990
在几乎所有的地球历史中，
00:48
threats have come from nature —
13
36105
1936
威胁都是来自大自然——
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
14
38041
3496
疾病、地震以及小行星等等——
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
15
41537
5672
但是从现在起，最大的危险
来自我们人类。
来自我们人类。
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
16
47209
3271
现在我们所面临的
不仅仅是核威胁；
不仅仅是核威胁；
01:02
in our interconnected world,
17
50480
1751
在我们这个相互联系的世界，
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
18
52231
3163
网络故障可以波及全球；
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
19
55394
3956
航空旅行可以将流行病
在几天内传播到全世界；
在几天内传播到全世界；
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
20
59350
3327
并且可以毫不夸张地说
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
21
62677
3217
社交媒体传播恐慌和谣言
如光速一般。
如光速一般。
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
22
65894
3225
我们对那些不起眼的危害
担心得太多了——
担心得太多了——
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
23
69119
4031
未必会发生的空难、
食品中的致癌物、
食品中的致癌物、
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
24
73150
2226
低剂量的辐射，等等——
01:27
but we and our political masters
25
75376
2825
但是我们和我们的政治领袖们
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
26
78201
4203
却不肯接受灾难性的场景
发生的可能性。
发生的可能性。
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
27
82404
3038
谢天谢地最糟糕的情况
还没有发生。
还没有发生。
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
28
85442
2196
的确，它们很有可能不会发生。
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
29
87638
3185
但是哪怕只有一个事件是
具有潜在的毁灭性的，
具有潜在的毁灭性的，
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
30
90823
2868
那么就值得投入大量的费用
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
31
93691
3836
去预防它，即使它不大可能发生，
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
32
97527
4513
正如我们为我们的房子
购买火灾险一样。
购买火灾险一样。
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
33
102040
4997
随着科学提供了
更大的能力和希望，
更大的能力和希望，
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
34
107037
3866
它的负面影响也会变得更加可怕。
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
35
110903
2239
我们变得更加脆弱。
02:05
Within a few decades,
36
113142
1838
数十年之内，
02:06
millions will have the capability
37
114980
2230
能够滥用快速发展的生物技术的人
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
38
117210
3121
将达到数百万,
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
39
120331
3553
就像今天滥用网络技术的人一样。
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
40
123884
3199
弗里曼·戴森在一次TED演讲中预言,
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
41
127083
3596
孩子们将会设计和创造新的生物体，
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
42
130679
4511
而这就像他们那一代人
玩化学装置一样常见。
玩化学装置一样常见。
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
43
135190
2528
当然，这可能有点像
科幻小说的场景，
科幻小说的场景，
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
44
137718
3183
但即使只是这个设想中的一部分
变成现实，
变成现实，
02:32
our ecology and even our species
45
140901
2737
我们的生态系统和我们人类自身
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
46
143638
3989
都必定将无法安然无恙地长久生存。
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
47
147627
3863
例如，一些生态极端主义者认为
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
48
151490
2509
人类的数量越少，
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
49
153999
3403
对这颗星球，
对我们生活的地球越好。
对我们生活的地球越好。
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
50
157402
2717
当这样的人掌握了
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
51
160119
2137
那些将会在2050年可能被普遍推广的
合成生物技术后
合成生物技术后
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
52
162256
2852
将会发生什么样的事情呢？
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
53
165108
3042
到那时，其他科幻小说中的噩梦
03:00
may transition to reality:
54
168150
1710
就可能变为现实：
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
55
169860
2070
愚蠢的机器人会像流氓一样，
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
56
171930
2417
或者一个网络会进化出自己的意识
03:06
threatens us all.
57
174347
2589
从而威胁到我们所有人。
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
58
176936
3270
我们能通过监管来预防这些风险吗？
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
59
180206
2407
无论如何我们得试一试，
但是这些企业
但是这些企业
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
60
182613
3529
是如此的求胜心切，
如此的全球化，
如此的全球化，
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
61
186142
1980
如此的受商业压力的驱动，
03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
62
188122
3285
所以他们将会不顾一切
以达成他们的目的，
以达成他们的目的，
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
63
191407
2036
而不管法规是如何规定的。
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
64
193443
3487
就像毒品法——我们试着去约束，
但收效甚微。
但收效甚微。
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
65
196930
3044
地球村里总会有些愚昧的村民，
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
66
199974
3496
并且他们的所作所为的影响
会波及全球。
会波及全球。
03:35
So as I said in my book,
67
203470
2291
所以就像我在书中所说，
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
68
205761
2889
这个世纪我们不会过得一帆风顺。
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
69
208650
3490
我们的社会可能会遭遇挫折——
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
70
212140
4115
甚至，有50%的可能
会遭遇一个严重的挫折。
会遭遇一个严重的挫折。
03:48
But are there conceivable events
71
216255
2914
但是可能还会有更糟糕的
03:51
that could be even worse,
72
219169
2161
事件发生吗，
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
73
221330
3430
那种可以消灭掉所有生命的事件？
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
74
224760
2926
当一台新的粒子加速器联机以后，
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
75
227686
1789
一些人不安地问道，
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
76
229475
2250
它能毁灭地球吗？或者，
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
77
231725
2659
撕破空间的构造？
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
78
234384
3543
幸运的是，至少这点我们
还是能保证不会发生的。
还是能保证不会发生的。
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
79
237927
2044
我和其他人指出，大自然
04:11
has done the same experiments
80
239971
1933
通过宇宙射线碰撞，
04:13
zillions of times already,
81
241904
2186
已经做过亿万次
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
82
244090
1765
同样的实验了。
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
83
245855
3054
但是科学家们无疑需要
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
84
248909
2580
对于那些会产生自然界中没有先例的状况
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
85
251489
2483
的实验保持警惕。
04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
86
253972
3423
生物学家应当避免释放那些具有潜在毁灭性
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
87
257395
2715
的转基因病原体。
04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
88
260110
3517
顺便提一下，我们之所以
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
89
263627
3461
对于真实存在的灾难所带来的风险
尤其反感
尤其反感
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
90
267088
3275
是取决于一个哲学和伦理问题，
04:42
and it's this:
91
270363
1670
这就是：
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
92
272033
2308
考虑一下两个场景。
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
93
274341
5236
场景A，90%的人类会被消灭。
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
94
279577
3896
场景B，所有人类都会被消灭。
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
95
283473
2918
那么场景B比场景A糟糕多少？
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
96
286391
3023
有人可能会说糟糕10%。
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
97
289414
3150
因为死亡人数要多全人类的10%。
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
98
292564
2906
但我认为场景B是无比的糟糕。
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
99
295470
2629
作为一个天文学家，我不能相信
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
100
298099
2467
人类是这个故事的结局。
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
101
300566
3323
宇宙诞生在太阳燃烧起来的
五十亿前年
五十亿前年
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
102
303889
2711
并且会永远持续下去，
05:18
so post-human evolution,
103
306600
2292
因此后人类时代的进化
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
104
308892
2190
不管是在地球
还是其它遥远的地方，
还是其它遥远的地方，
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
105
311082
2714
都可能会像达尔文进化论
所提出的一样旷日持久，
所提出的一样旷日持久，
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
106
313796
3281
并且甚至会更奇妙。
05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
107
317077
2664
而事实上，未来的进化会发生得更快，
05:31
on a technological timescale,
108
319741
2199
会在一个科技的时间尺度内，
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
109
321940
2299
而不是在自然选择的时间尺度内。
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
110
324239
4195
所以无疑地，考虑到这些巨大的风险，
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
111
328434
3386
我们不应该承受哪怕是十亿分之一的
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
112
331820
2229
导致人类灭绝的风险，
这样才有可能阻止
这样才有可能阻止
05:46
this immense potential.
113
334049
2310
这些巨大的潜在性。
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
114
336359
1772
有些设想中的场景
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
115
338131
1819
可能的确只是在科幻小说中才会出现，
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
116
339950
3386
但其它的情节则可能变成
令人担忧的现实。
令人担忧的现实。
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
117
343336
2874
有一个值得一提的格言是
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
118
346210
2697
不常见并不等于不可能发生，
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
119
348907
2398
事实上，我们在剑桥大学
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
120
351305
3375
建立的一个如何去减轻
06:06
these existential risks.
121
354680
2032
这些真实存在的风险的研究中心
也是出于同样的考虑。
也是出于同样的考虑。
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
122
356712
3063
这一切看起来似乎只值得少数人花时间
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
123
359775
2316
去估量这些潜在的灾难。
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
124
362091
3013
但是我们需要尽可能地
从其他人身上获得帮助，
从其他人身上获得帮助，
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
125
365104
2479
因为我们是茫茫宇宙中这颗
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
126
367583
3483
珍贵的淡蓝色圆点的管理员，
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
127
371066
3378
这是一颗走过了5亿个世纪的星球。
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
128
374444
2556
因此让我们别再危害未来。
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
129
377000
1795
我想引用一个
名叫彼得·梅达沃的伟大科学家的话
名叫彼得·梅达沃的伟大科学家的话
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
130
378795
3501
来结束今天的演讲。
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
131
382296
3273
我引用的这句话是：
为人类而敲响的钟声
为人类而敲响的钟声
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
132
385569
2644
就像高山上的牛的钟声一样。
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
133
388213
2286
它们系在我们的脖子上，
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
134
390499
2675
如果它们不能发出和谐悦耳的声音，
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
135
393174
2131
那么一定是我们的错。“
06:47
Thank you very much.
136
395305
2267
非常感谢。
06:49
(Applause)
137
397572
2113
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com