TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
Sir Martin Rees: 我哋可以阻止世界末日嗎？
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一個後末日世界嘅地球，人類消失咗，聽起嚟似係科幻小說劇同電影。 但喺呢場短又眼前一亮嘅演講入面，Martin Rees 爵士叫我哋諗一諗我哋真實存在嘅危機 —— 可以毀滅人類嘅自然威脅同人為威脅。 作為關心人類嘅一個人，佢問：「最壞可能發生嘅事係乜？」。
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
十年前，我寫咗一本書
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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叫做 「 我哋最後世紀？ 」問號
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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我嘅出版商將問號刪咗
（笑聲）
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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美國出版商將題目改咗做
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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「 我哋最後一個鐘 」
（笑聲）
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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美國人鍾意即時行樂，將事情倒轉嚟睇
（笑聲）
00:30
(Laughter)
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00:32
And my theme was this:
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我嘅主題係噉樣嘅：
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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我哋嘅地球已經有四十五億年歷史
00:38
but this one is special —
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但過去一百年嚟係特別嘅
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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呢個係有史以嚟第一次
有一個物種，即係我哋人類
有一個物種，即係我哋人類
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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將呢個星球嘅未來掌握喺自己手裏面
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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睇返地球歷史
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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威脅絕大部分都係嚟自大自然
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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疾病、地震、隕石撞擊等等
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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但係由宜家開始
最大嘅威脅嚟自於我哋自己
最大嘅威脅嚟自於我哋自己
並且宜家，唔單止核威脅
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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01:02
in our interconnected world,
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喺我哋全球化嘅世界裏面
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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網路故障可以癱瘓全球
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
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航班令流行病
可以喺幾日之內喺全世界傳播
可以喺幾日之內喺全世界傳播
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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並且社會媒體可以散佈恐慌同謠言
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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傳播速度同光速有得輝
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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我哋會為到細小嘅威脅而焦慮
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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冇乜可能發生嘅空難、食物嘅致癌物質
低水平輻射等等
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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01:27
but we and our political masters
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但係我哋同我哋嘅政治領袖
都唔肯面對災難情景
都唔肯面對災難情景
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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好彩最壞嘅仲未發生
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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確實，佢哋應該唔會發生
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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但係如果有件潛在毀滅性嘅事發生
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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噉就值得我哋持續開支
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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防止嗰件事發生
即使件事唔太可能發生都好
即使件事唔太可能發生都好
就好似我哋會幫間屋買火險一樣
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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道高一尺魔高一丈
科學俾我哋更加多嘅力量同願望嘅同時
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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科學可以係好危險
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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我哋於是更加經唔起考驗
02:05
Within a few decades,
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幾十年後，幾百萬嘅人會有能力
02:06
millions will have the capability
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濫用發展一日千里嘅生物科技
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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就好似宜家嘅人濫用網絡科技一樣
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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Freeman Dyson 喺一場 TED 演講入面
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
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預見小朋友設計同創造新嘅生物
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
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就好似佢嗰代人當化學實驗遊戲噉玩
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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當然，呢樣可能只會喺科幻小說出現
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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但亦有可能係佢預言嘅情景︰
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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我哋嘅生態、以至物種
一定唔會平安無事咁長期生存
一定唔會平安無事咁長期生存
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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例如，有一啲生態學嘅極端人士
好似 Gaia 咁
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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佢認為人類幾量越少
會對我哋嘅星球越好
會對我哋嘅星球越好
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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如果人類掌握咗 2050 年
就會全世界廣泛使用嘅合成生物技術
就會全世界廣泛使用嘅合成生物技術
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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會點樣？
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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到嗰個時候
其他嘅科幻小說裏面所提到嘅噩夢
03:00
may transition to reality:
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或者會成為現實
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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沉默嘅機器人變得瘋狂
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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網路有自己嘅思想，威脅我哋全人類
03:06
threatens us all.
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03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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噉，我哋可以通過規管
去避免呢啲危機嗎？
去避免呢啲危機嗎？
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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我哋確實要去嘗試
但係呢啲企業都好有競爭性
喺全世界都有生意利益
喺全世界都有生意利益
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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太受市場影響
03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
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因為法律
令可以做嘅嘢
都要搬到去其他地方先做到
都要搬到去其他地方先做到
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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就好似禁毒法律咁
我哋去監管，但始終失敗
我哋去監管，但始終失敗
並且地球村將會有
一班蠢嘅人遍佈全世界
一班蠢嘅人遍佈全世界
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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03:35
So as I said in my book,
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所以，我喺書裏面話
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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我哋喺呢個世紀嘅路會比較難行
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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我哋社會可能會有一啲難題
其實係有一半機會面對重大問題
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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03:48
But are there conceivable events
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但係會唔會有可以預見到
03:51
that could be even worse,
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但更加弊、滅絕所有物種嘅事發生？
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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當新嘅粒子加速器嘅消息喺上網出現
一啲人會緊張咁問
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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佢會唔會破壞地球
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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或者話更弊嘅，將太空空間撕開？
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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值得慶倖嘅係，我哋仍然係安全嘅
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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我同其他人指出過
大自然其實已經透過宇宙射線碰撞
做過無數次同樣嘅實驗
做過無數次同樣嘅實驗
04:11
has done the same experiments
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04:13
zillions of times already,
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04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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但係科學家喺做研究嘅時候
必須要小心整咗啲
宇宙從來冇發生過嘅嘢
宇宙從來冇發生過嘅嘢
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
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生物學家應該避免泄漏
經過基因改造
具有潛在毀滅後果嘅病原體
具有潛在毀滅後果嘅病原體
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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順便講下，我哋
對真正嘅災難之所以特別厭惡
對真正嘅災難之所以特別厭惡
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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係源於一個哲學倫理問題
04:42
and it's this:
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個問題係：
想像有兩個場景
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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場景一，消滅 90% 人類
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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場景二，消滅所有人類
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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場景二比場景一壞幾多呢？
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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有人會話差十個百分點
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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死亡統計係高出十個百分點
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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但係我唔會話場景二比較差
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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作為一個天文學家
我唔相信人類只係
成個地球歷史嘅最後一部分
成個地球歷史嘅最後一部分
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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仲有五十億年
太陽至會加劇燃燒，步入衰退期
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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但宇宙仍然會繼續走落去
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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噉樣，後人類嘅進化過程
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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喺地球同埋外太空
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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可以同達爾文進化論一樣咁長
甚至更加精彩
甚至更加精彩
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
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其實，未來進化嘅速度會更加快
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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呢樣係基於技術上嘅時間嘅考慮
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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而並非自物競天擇嘅時間考慮
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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所以面對咁大嘅利害關係
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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面對十億個危險
我哋都唔應該妥栛一個危險
我哋都唔應該妥栛一個危險
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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因為要記住人類滅絕嘅可能
05:46
this immense potential.
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05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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一啲俾人提過嘅場景
都可能出自於科幻小說裏邊
都可能出自於科幻小說裏邊
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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但係其他嘅場景
可能真係會成為現實
可能真係會成為現實
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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有句重要嘅教誨係講︰
未知唔等於唔可能
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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實際上因為噉樣
我哋喺劍橋大學成立咗一個中心
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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研究點樣降低以上存在嘅風險
06:06
these existential risks.
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06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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幾個人去思考呢啲潛在災難睇落幾唔錯
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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但係我哋需要更加多嘅人幫手
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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因為我哋係茫茫宇宙中
一個藍色星球嘅打理人
一個藍色星球嘅打理人
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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呢個星球喺人類出現之前
已經有五十億年嘅歷史
已經有五十億年嘅歷史
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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我哋唔要糟塌呢個星球嘅未來
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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我諗引用著名科學屋
Peter Medawar 嘅一句話收尾
Peter Medawar 嘅一句話收尾
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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「 為人類而設嘅鈴鈴
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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就好似阿爾卑斯山嘅小牛嘅鈴鈴一樣，
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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呢啲鈴鈴就好似掛喺我哋頸上面
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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如果佢哋冇發出和諧而有旋律嘅聲音，
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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噉就必定係我哋嘅錯。 」
06:47
Thank you very much.
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多謝
（掌聲）
06:49
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com