TEDxDanubia
Brett Hennig: What if we replaced politicians with randomly selected people?
布莱特 · 汉宁: 假如我们用随机选择的人群来代替政治家会怎样？
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如果你认为现有的民主制度有缺陷，这里有个想法：让我们用随机选择的人群来代替政治家。 作家和社会运动家布莱特 · 汉宁（Brett Hennig）向我们展现了一个吸引人的抽签民主制，或者说随机选择民主制。这源于古雅典人挖掘群体智慧，以及他们信任普通人能做出更加均衡的，出于公众利益的决定。听起很疯狂吧？让我们一起了解更多有关建立一个偏坦的政治家不复存在的社会。
Brett Hennig - Author, activist
Brett Hennig co-founded and directs the Sortition Foundation, which campaigns to institute the use of stratified, random selection (also called sortition) in government. Full bio
Brett Hennig co-founded and directs the Sortition Foundation, which campaigns to institute the use of stratified, random selection (also called sortition) in government. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I want to talk about
one of the big questions,
one of the big questions,
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我想谈谈几个最大的问题之一，
也许是最大的一个问题。
00:16
perhaps the biggest question:
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00:18
How should we live together?
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我们该如何共存？
00:20
How should a group of people,
who perhaps live in a city
who perhaps live in a city
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生活在同一城市的一群人，
或是在同一大陆的人们，
00:24
or in the continent
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亦或是整个地球上的所有人，
00:26
or even the whole globe,
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该如何分享和管理共同的资源？
00:27
share and manage common resources?
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我们该如何制定用来
约束我们的规则？
约束我们的规则？
00:30
How should we make
the rules that govern us?
the rules that govern us?
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这一直是个重要的问题。
00:33
This has always been
an important question.
an important question.
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而今天，我认为这个问题甚至
比以往任何时候都要重要。
比以往任何时候都要重要。
00:35
And today, I think
it's even more important than ever
it's even more important than ever
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如果我们想要解决不平等的加剧，
气候变化和难民危机这些问题，
气候变化和难民危机这些问题，
00:38
if we want to address rising inequality,
climate change, the refugee crisis,
climate change, the refugee crisis,
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00:43
just to name a few major issues.
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当然这些只是一部分主要的问题，
00:46
It's also a very old question.
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这也是一个很古老的问题。
自从我们生活在一个有组织的社会，
00:48
Humans have been asking
themselves this question
themselves this question
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人类就一直在问自己这个问题。
00:51
ever since we lived
in organized societies.
in organized societies.
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比如说，柏拉图，
00:54
Like this guy, Plato.
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00:56
He thought we needed benevolent guardians
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他认为我们需要仁慈的监管者，
能站在公众的角度
做出明智的决策，
做出明智的决策，
00:58
who could make decisions
for the greater good of everyone.
for the greater good of everyone.
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国王和王后认为
他们可以成为这样的监管者，
他们可以成为这样的监管者，
01:02
Kings and queens thought
they could be those guardians,
they could be those guardians,
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01:06
but during various revolutions,
they tended to lose their heads.
they tended to lose their heads.
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但是在无数的革命中，
他们往往成了遭到处决的对象。
他们往往成了遭到处决的对象。
01:10
And this guy, you probably know.
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你可能认识这个人，
在这里，匈牙利，
一个你生活过很多年的地方，
一个你生活过很多年的地方，
01:12
Here in Hungary, you lived for many years
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正在尝试用他的答案
来回答上面的问题。
来回答上面的问题。
01:14
under one attempt to implement
his answer of how to live together.
his answer of how to live together.
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01:19
His answer was brutal, cruel and inhumane.
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而他的回答是野蛮的，
残忍的，毫无人性的。
残忍的，毫无人性的。
01:23
But a different answer,
a different kind of answer,
a different kind of answer,
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但是一个不一样的回答，
一种不一样的回答，
一种不一样的回答，
沉睡了大约2000年，
01:26
which went more or less
into hibernation for 2,000 years,
into hibernation for 2,000 years,
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在最近有了卓越的成功。
01:30
has had profound recent success.
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当然，这个回答就是，民主。
01:33
That answer is, of course, democracy.
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01:36
If we take a quick look
at the modern history of democracy,
at the modern history of democracy,
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如果我们快速地回顾一下
现代民主的历史，
现代民主的历史，
就会发现它是这样的。
01:40
it goes something like this.
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这条横轴代表着近两百年的时间，
01:41
Along here, we're going
to put the last 200 years.
to put the last 200 years.
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这条纵轴代表着民主国家的数量。
01:45
Up here, we're going to put
the number of democracies.
the number of democracies.
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那么图像就会是这样的。
01:48
And the graph does this,
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01:50
the important point of which,
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其中最重要的一点就是，
在这段时间里民主国家的显著增长，
01:52
is this extraordinary increase over time,
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这就是为什么20世纪
01:55
which is why the 20th century
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被称为民主胜利的世纪，
01:57
has been called the century
of democracy's triumph,
of democracy's triumph,
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这也是为什么，如同
弗朗西斯 · 福山（Francis Fukuyama）所说，
弗朗西斯 · 福山（Francis Fukuyama）所说，
02:00
and why, as Francis Fukuyama said in 1989,
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一些人认为我们已经
抵达了历史的尽头，
抵达了历史的尽头，
02:04
some believe that we have reached
the end of history,
the end of history,
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我们该怎么生活在一起
这个问题已经被回答了，
这个问题已经被回答了，
02:07
that the question of how to live together
has been answered,
has been answered,
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答案就是自由民主制。
02:10
and that answer is liberal democracy.
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02:13
Let's explore that assertion, though.
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但是，让我们再审视
一下这种说法，
一下这种说法，
02:15
I want to find out what you think.
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我想知道你是怎么想的。
所以我要问你们两个问题，
02:17
So I'm going to ask you two questions,
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如果你表示同意
02:19
and I want you to put your hands up
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请举起你的手。
02:21
if you agree.
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第一个问题是，你们认为生活在
民主制的社会一是件好事吗？
民主制的社会一是件好事吗？
02:22
The first question is: Who thinks
living in a democracy is a good thing?
living in a democracy is a good thing?
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02:27
Who likes democracy?
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你们喜欢民主吗？
如果你能想到一种更好的制度，
请你不要举手。
请你不要举手。
02:28
If you can think of a better system,
keep your hands down.
keep your hands down.
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不要担心那些没有举手的人，
02:31
Don't worry about those
who didn't raise their hands,
who didn't raise their hands,
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我相信他们非常有想法。
02:34
I'm sure they mean very well.
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02:35
The second question is:
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第二个问题是：
02:37
Who thinks our democracies
are functioning well?
are functioning well?
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你们认为我们的
民主制运行得好吗？
民主制运行得好吗？
02:41
Come on, there must be one politician
in the audience somewhere.
in the audience somewhere.
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快举手，你们当中
肯定有一个是政治家。
肯定有一个是政治家。
（笑声）
02:44
(Laughter)
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没有？好吧。
02:46
No.
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但是我想说的是，
如果自由民主制是历史的尽头，
如果自由民主制是历史的尽头，
02:47
But my point is, if liberal democracy
is the end of history,
is the end of history,
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那么举手的情况肯定
跟现场反差很大。
跟现场反差很大。
02:52
then there's a massive paradox
or contradiction here.
or contradiction here.
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02:55
Why is that?
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为什么是这样？
第一个问题是理想化的民主，
02:57
Well, the first question
is about the ideal of democracy,
is about the ideal of democracy,
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它的特点都十分吸引人，
03:01
and all these qualities
are very appealing.
are very appealing.
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03:04
But in practice, it's not working.
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但是在现实中，它没什么作用。
这就引出了第二个问题。
03:06
And that's the second question.
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我们的政治是有缺陷的，
我们的政治家是不被相信的，
我们的政治家是不被相信的，
03:08
Our politics is broken,
our politicians aren't trusted,
our politicians aren't trusted,
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我们的政治系统被既得利益所扭曲。
03:12
and the political system is distorted
by powerful vested interests.
by powerful vested interests.
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03:17
I think there's two ways
to resolve this paradox.
to resolve this paradox.
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我认为有两种方法
来解决这样一个矛盾。
来解决这样一个矛盾。
03:20
One is to give up on democracy;
it doesn't work.
it doesn't work.
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一个是我们放弃民主，因为它没有用
让我们来选举一些民粹主义的
煽动者，一些无视民主制度的人，
煽动者，一些无视民主制度的人，
03:23
Let's elect a populist demagogue
who will ignore democratic norms,
who will ignore democratic norms,
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来践踏自由，
03:27
trample on liberal freedoms
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把这个问题赶快解决掉。
03:29
and just get things done.
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另一个选择，我认为，
是去修复这个有缺陷的民主。
是去修复这个有缺陷的民主。
03:30
The other option, I think,
is to fix this broken system,
is to fix this broken system,
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让实际情况更加理想化，
03:34
to bring the practice closer to the ideal
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让社会不同的声音在议会中发声，
03:37
and put the diverse voices of society
in our parliaments
in our parliaments
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让他们去制定深思熟虑的，
循证的法律，
循证的法律，
03:41
and get them to make considered,
evidence-based laws
evidence-based laws
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站在长远的角度出发，
使得每个人受益。
使得每个人受益。
03:44
for the long-term good of everyone.
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03:46
Which brings me to my epiphany,
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这种想法使我顿悟，
使我得到了启迪。
03:48
my moment of enlightenment.
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我想要你们用批判的思维，
03:50
And I want you to get critical.
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来问问自己，接下来
我要说的想法为什么不行？
我要说的想法为什么不行？
03:51
I want you to ask yourselves,
"Why wouldn't this work?"
"Why wouldn't this work?"
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然后来跟我探讨一下。
03:54
And then come and talk to me
afterwards about it.
afterwards about it.
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03:57
Its technical name is "sortition."
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它的学名叫做 ”随机选择”。
04:00
But its common name is "random selection."
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但通常我们叫它 “抽签”。
04:03
And the idea is actually very simple:
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这个过程其实非常的简单：
04:06
we randomly select people
and put them in parliament.
and put them in parliament.
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我们随机从人群中选择
我们的议员，由他们组成议会。
我们的议员，由他们组成议会。
04:10
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:11
Let's think about that
for a few more minutes, shall we?
for a few more minutes, shall we?
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我们不妨来思考一下。
假设我们选择了你，
你，你还有你，
你，你还有你，
04:14
Imagine we chose you and you
and you and you and you down there
and you and you and you down there
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以及其他的一些被抽到的人，
04:18
and a bunch of other random people,
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然后我们在接下来的几年里，
把你们加入议会，
把你们加入议会，
04:20
and we put you in our parliament
for the next couple of years.
for the next couple of years.
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当然我们会分阶级抽选，
以确保被抽到的人
以确保被抽到的人
04:23
Of course, we could stratify the selection
to make sure that it matched
to make sure that it matched
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和我们国家的经济分布
以及人口比例是匹配的，
以及人口比例是匹配的，
04:28
the socioeconomic and demographic
profile of the country
profile of the country
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而且是一个代表所有人的样本。
04:31
and was a truly representative
sample of people.
sample of people.
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其中一半的人是女性。
04:35
Fifty percent of them would be women.
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他们当中很多人是年轻人，
也有一些是老人，
也有一些是老人，
04:37
Many of them would be young,
some would be old,
some would be old,
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极少的一部分是富人，
04:40
a few would be rich,
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但是绝大多数都是普通人，
就像你和我一样。
就像你和我一样。
04:41
but most of them would be
ordinary people like you and me.
ordinary people like you and me.
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04:46
This would be a microcosm of society.
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这将会是整个社会的缩影。
而且这个缩影
会模拟我们所有人的想法，
会模拟我们所有人的想法，
04:50
And this microcosm would simulate
how we would all think,
how we would all think,
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如果我们有时间，信息和
04:54
if we had the time, the information
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良好的过程来解决
政治决定的道德难题。
政治决定的道德难题。
04:57
and a good process to come to
the moral crux of political decisions.
the moral crux of political decisions.
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虽然你可能不是被抽到的人，
05:02
And although you may not be in that group,
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但是跟你同年龄的某人，
跟你同性别的某人，
跟你同性别的某人，
05:04
someone of your age,
someone of your gender,
someone of your gender,
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跟你来自一个地方的某人，
跟你有着相同背景的某人，
跟你有着相同背景的某人，
05:06
someone from your location
and someone with your background
and someone with your background
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将会被抽到。
05:09
would be in that room.
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05:11
The decisions made by these people
would build on the wisdom of crowds.
would build on the wisdom of crowds.
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这些人做出的决定
是基于群体的智慧。
是基于群体的智慧。
群体的智慧
会超过他们个人智慧的总和。
会超过他们个人智慧的总和。
05:15
They would become more
than the sum of their parts.
than the sum of their parts.
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他们会是批判性的思考者，
05:18
They would become critical thinkers
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有着咨询专家的渠道，
05:20
with access to experts,
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他们会是利国利民，
而不是高高在上的，
而不是高高在上的，
05:22
who would be on tap but not on top.
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当他们面对一系列广泛的
社会问题的时候，
社会问题的时候，
05:25
And they could prove
that diversity can trump ability
that diversity can trump ability
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能够证明多样性
是可以胜过个人能力的。
是可以胜过个人能力的。
05:28
when confronting the wide array
of societal questions and problems.
of societal questions and problems.
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05:34
It would not be government
by public opinion poll.
by public opinion poll.
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这不是基于公众意见调查的政府，
05:38
It would not be government by referendum.
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也不是基于全民公投的政府。
这些消息灵通，深思熟虑的人
将会跨越公众意见的范畴，
将会跨越公众意见的范畴，
05:42
These informed, deliberating people
would move beyond public opinion
would move beyond public opinion
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制定出更好的决定。
05:47
to the making of public judgments.
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05:50
However, there would be
one major side effect:
one major side effect:
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然而，最大的一个副作用就是：
05:54
if we replaced elections with sortition
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如果我们用抽签来取代选举，
以及让议会真正代表我们的社会，
05:57
and made our parliament
truly representative of society,
truly representative of society,
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这就意味着政治家的末日。
06:01
it would mean the end of politicians.
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我敢肯定看到这一幕
我们都会很伤心。
我们都会很伤心。
06:04
And I'm sure we'd all be
pretty sad to see that.
pretty sad to see that.
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（笑声）
06:06
(Laughter)
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非常有趣的是，
06:08
Very interestingly,
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随机选择就是
古雅典民主社会中
古雅典民主社会中
06:10
random selection was a key part
of how democracy was done
of how democracy was done
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一个关键的因素。
06:14
in ancient Athens.
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06:16
This machine, this device,
is called a kleroteria.
is called a kleroteria.
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这个仪器叫做 “kleroteria”，
这是一个古雅典的抽签工具。
06:19
It's an ancient Athenian
random-selection device.
random-selection device.
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古雅典人随机选择他们的公民，
06:23
The ancient Athenians
randomly selected citizens
randomly selected citizens
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让他们担任大部分的政治职务。
06:26
to fill the vast majority
of their political posts.
of their political posts.
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06:30
They knew that elections
were aristocratic devices.
were aristocratic devices.
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他们知道选举是贵族统治的手段，
他们知道政治家这个职业
是应该被避免的。
是应该被避免的。
06:34
They knew that career politicians
were a thing to be avoided.
were a thing to be avoided.
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我认为我们也知道这些。
06:39
And I think we know these things as well.
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但是比古代抽签更有趣的是
06:41
But more interesting than
the ancient use of random selection
the ancient use of random selection
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它在当代的重生，
06:45
is its modern resurgence.
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人们重新发现随机选择
在政治领域的正确性，
在政治领域的正确性，
06:47
The rediscovery of the legitimacy
of random selection in politics
of random selection in politics
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最近这一现象
已经变得十分普遍，
已经变得十分普遍，
06:52
has become so common lately,
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有太多的例子可以说明这一现象。
06:54
that there's simply
too many examples to talk about.
too many examples to talk about.
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当然，我清楚的知道，
在议会启动随机选择过程
在议会启动随机选择过程
06:57
Of course, I'm very aware
that it's going to be difficult
that it's going to be difficult
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一定会困难重重。
06:59
to institute this in our parliaments.
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你可以试试跟你的朋友说：
07:02
Try this -- say to your friend,
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“我认为我们应该推行
由抽签来选择议员。”
由抽签来选择议员。”
07:04
"I think we should populate our parliament
with randomly selected people."
with randomly selected people."
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“你在跟我开玩笑吧？”
07:08
"Are you joking?
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”如果我的邻居被选上了怎么办？”
07:09
What if my neighbor gets chosen?
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07:10
The fool can't even
separate his recycling."
separate his recycling."
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“这个傻子甚至连
垃圾分类回收都不会。”
垃圾分类回收都不会。”
但是令人欣喜，有具有说服力的证据，
07:13
But the perhaps surprising
but overwhelming and compelling evidence
but overwhelming and compelling evidence
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都来自于当代的例子，
07:18
from all these modern examples
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说明其实这种制度是有效的。
07:20
is that it does work.
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如果你给人们责任，
他们就会变得负责。
他们就会变得负责。
07:22
If you give people responsibility,
they act responsibly.
they act responsibly.
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07:26
Don't get me wrong -- it's not a panacea.
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别曲解我的意思，这并不是万能药。
但问题的关键不在于
这种制度是否是完美的。
这种制度是否是完美的。
07:28
The question is not:
Would this be perfect?
Would this be perfect?
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这当然不是完美的，
07:31
Of course not.
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人们是会犯错误的，
07:33
People are fallibly human,
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过去扭曲的影响还会持续存在。
07:34
and distorting influences
will continue to exist.
will continue to exist.
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07:37
The question is: Would it be better?
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问题的关键是，
这种制度是更好的吗？
这种制度是更好的吗？
至少对于我来说，
答案明显是肯定的。
答案明显是肯定的。
07:40
And the answer to that question,
to me at least, is obviously yes.
to me at least, is obviously yes.
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这也把我们带回到最初的问题，
07:45
Which gets us back
to our original question:
to our original question:
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07:49
How should we live together?
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我们该如何生活在一起？
现在我们已经有了一个答案，
07:50
And now we have an answer:
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就是随机选择议员的议会。
07:52
with a parliament that uses sortition.
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07:56
But how would we get from here to there?
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但是我们该如何
将现有制度变成那样呢？
将现有制度变成那样呢？
07:59
How could we fix our broken system
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我们应该如何修复
这个有缺陷的民主，
这个有缺陷的民主，
并在21世纪翻新我们的民主制度？
08:01
and remake democracy for the 21st century?
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08:05
Well, there are several
things that we can do,
things that we can do,
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有几件事情是我们能做的。
事实上，这些事已经在发生了。
08:09
and that are, in fact,
happening right now.
happening right now.
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我们可以对抽签制度进行试验，
08:12
We can experiment with sortition.
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把它引入学校，
工作单位以及其他的机构，
工作单位以及其他的机构，
08:13
We can introduce it to schools
and workplaces and other institutions,
and workplaces and other institutions,
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就像 “democracy in practice”
在玻利维亚做的那样。
在玻利维亚做的那样。
08:18
like Democracy In Practice
is doing in Bolivia.
is doing in Bolivia.
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我们可以举办
公民陪审团和公民集会，
公民陪审团和公民集会，
08:21
We can hold policy juries
and citizens' assemblies,
and citizens' assemblies,
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就像 “newDemocracy Foundation“
在澳大利亚做的那样，
在澳大利亚做的那样，
08:24
like the newDemocracy Foundation
is doing in Australia,
is doing in Australia,
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就像杰弗逊中心在美国做的那样，
08:27
like the Jefferson Center
is doing in the US
is doing in the US
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就像爱尔兰政府现在做的那样。
08:30
and like the Irish government
is doing right now.
is doing right now.
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08:33
We could build a social movement
demanding change,
demanding change,
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我们可以发起一个
要求改变的社会运动。
要求改变的社会运动。
08:36
which is what the Sortition Foundation
is doing in the UK.
is doing in the UK.
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就像 “ Sortition Foundation”
在英国做的那样。
在英国做的那样。
08:40
And at some point, we should institute it.
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然后在未来的某个时候，
我们应该将这种制度创立起来。
我们应该将这种制度创立起来。
也许第一步，就是建立一个第二议会，
08:42
Perhaps the first step would be
a second chamber in our parliament,
a second chamber in our parliament,
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全部由被抽签的人构成——
08:46
full of randomly selected people --
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一个公民议院，你也可以这么说。
08:49
a citizens' senate, if you will.
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在法国已经有了这样的运动，
08:51
There's a campaign
for a citizens' senate in France
for a citizens' senate in France
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在苏格兰也是。
08:54
and another campaign in Scotland,
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这当然也可以在这里，
匈牙利，得到实现。
匈牙利，得到实现。
08:56
and it could, of course, be done
right here in Hungary.
right here in Hungary.
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这就像是把一个特洛伊木马
插入了政府的心脏。
插入了政府的心脏。
08:59
That would be kind of like a Trojan horse
right into the heart of government.
right into the heart of government.
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09:05
And then, when it becomes impossible
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然后，当不可能
09:07
to patch over the cracks
in the current system,
in the current system,
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修补现有的漏洞的时候，
我们必须站出来，
用抽签来取代选举。
用抽签来取代选举。
09:09
we must step up and replace
elections with sortition.
elections with sortition.
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09:13
I have hope.
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我对此充满希望。
在匈牙利，历史上有各种
09:14
Here in Hungary,
systems have been created,
systems have been created,
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不同的制度被创立，
09:16
and systems have been
torn down and replaced
torn down and replaced
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09:19
in the past.
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或被撤下和取代。
09:20
Change can and does happen.
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改变可以发生，改变也正在发生，
这是只时间和方式的问题。
09:23
It's just a matter of when and how.
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谢谢，
（匈牙利语）谢谢。
（匈牙利语）谢谢。
09:25
Thank you.
(Hungarian) Thank you.
(Hungarian) Thank you.
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09:27
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Brett Hennig - Author, activistBrett Hennig co-founded and directs the Sortition Foundation, which campaigns to institute the use of stratified, random selection (also called sortition) in government.
Why you should listen
Before co-founding the Sortition Foundation, Brett Hennig wore a variety of hats: as a taxi driver, a software engineer, a social justice activist, a mathematics tutor and the primary carer of four boys. He finished his PhD in astrophysics just before his first son arrived.
After spending several disheartening years in civil society organizations and politics, Hennig became inspired by Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri's trilogy on political philosophy and began investigating and researching network forms of democracy. The resulting book, The End of Politicians: Time for a Real Democracy, has been called "a book for visionaries" by New Internationalist contributing editor James Kelsey Fry and described as "a powerful critique and provocative alternative" by Professor Erik Olin Wright of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Hennig has given many talks promoting sortition and has contributed a chapter, "Who needs elections? Accountability, Equality, and Legitimacy under Sortition," to the forthcoming book Legislature by Lot: Transformative Designs for Deliberative Governance (Verso, 2019).
Brett Hennig | Speaker | TED.com