ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Gwynne Shotwell - Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations.

Why you should listen

Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as vice president of business development and built the Falcon vehicle family manifest to more than 70 launches, representing more than $10 billion in business. Shotwell is a member of the SpaceX Board of Directors.
 
Prior to joining SpaceX, Shotwell spent more than 10 years at the Aerospace Corporation, holding positions in space systems engineering and technology and project management. Shotwell was subsequently recruited to be director of Microcosm's space systems division, managing space system technologies, serving on the executive committee and directing corporate business development.
 
In 2014, Shotwell was appointed to the United States Export Import Bank's Advisory Committee and the Federal Aviation Administration’s Management Advisory Council. She has been awarded the World Technology Award for Individual Achievement in Space, has been inducted into the Women In Technology International Hall of Fame and was elected to the honorable grade of Fellow with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
 
SpaceX supports science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) programs locally as well as national engineering programs and competitions. Shotwell has helped raise over $1.4 million for STEM education programs reaching thousands of students nationwide.
Shotwell received, with honors, her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Northwestern University in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics, and she serves as both a University Trustee and a member of the Advisory Council for Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. She has authored dozens of papers on a variety of space-related subjects.

More profile about the speaker
Gwynne Shotwell | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2018

Gwynne Shotwell: SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes

格温·肖特维尔: SpaceX计划让你在30分钟内飞遍全球

Filmed:
2,933,173 views

在SpaceX,又有什么新鲜事?工程师格温·肖特韦尔曾是埃隆·马斯克开创性的航空航天公司的第7名员工,现在是该公司的总裁。在与TED策展人克里斯·安德森的谈话中,她谈到了SpaceX公司将人送入轨道的竞赛,以及该公司的下一个重大项目——大猎鹰火箭(BFR)。这个新的巨型火箭的设计目的是将人类送上火星——但它还有另一个潜在用途:地球人的太空旅行。
- Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations. Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:14
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: So two months个月 ago,
something crazy happened发生.
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克里斯·安德森:两个月前,发生了一件很疯狂的事
你能在这里跟我们讲一讲吗,
因为它引起了很多人的注意?
00:17
Can you talk us through通过 this, because
this caught抓住 so many许多 people's人们 attention注意?
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格温·肖特维尔:我先不说话,
00:21
Gwynne格温 ShotwellShotwell: I'll stay quiet安静
for the beginning开始,
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看完视频我再讲。
00:23
and then I'll start开始 talking.
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(视频)声音:5、4、3、2、1
00:25
(Video视频) Voices声音: Five, four,
three, two, one.
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(欢呼)
00:29
(Cheering打气)
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女声:发射。
去吧,猎鹰重型运载火箭。
00:31
Woman女人: Liftoff升空. Go Falcon Heavy.
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00:34
GSGS: So this was such这样
an important重要 moment时刻 for SpaceXSpaceX公司.
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格:对于 SpaceX 来说
这是一个非常重要的时刻。
有了猎鹰9号和现在的重型猎鹰,
00:38
With the Falcon 9
and now the Falcon Heavy,
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我们可以将之前设想过
00:40
we can launch发射 into orbit轨道
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或者目前正在设想中的载荷,
发射到轨道中去。
00:43
any payload有效载荷 that has previously先前
been conceived设想 or is conceived设想 right now.
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我们已经给重型猎鹰在今年晚些时候
安排了好几次发射任务,
00:48
We've我们已经 got a couple一对 of launches发布会
of Falcon Heavy later后来 this year,
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所以这一次必须得成功。
00:51
so this had to go right.
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这是我们第一次发射它,
00:53
It was the first time we flew it,
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当然,这当中最耀眼的明星,
00:55
and the star of the show显示, of course课程,
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便是侧推进器着陆。
00:57
brother哥哥 and sister妹妹 side boosters助推器 landing降落.
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我很激动。
01:00
I was excited兴奋.
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(笑声)
01:01
(Laughter笑声)
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感谢我的团队。
01:02
Thanking感谢 my team球队.
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01:04
By the way, there's maybe
a thousand people
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顺便提一下,可能有上千人
在那里站在我的周围。
01:06
standing常设 around me right there.
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01:08
And Starman外星人.
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以及星侠。
01:10
Starman外星人 did not steal the show显示, though虽然 --
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不过,星侠并不是演出的主角——
推进器才是。
01:12
the boosters助推器 did.
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克:(笑声)
01:13
CACA: (Laughter笑声)
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克:我想应该还有一些载荷——
那么为什么不送一辆特斯拉上天呢?
01:14
CACA: There had to be some payload有效载荷 --
why not put a Tesla特斯拉 into space空间?
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格:是啊。完美。
01:17
GSGS: Exactly究竟. It was perfect完善.
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克:格温,让我们把时间
往回倒转一下。
01:19
CACA: Gwynne格温, let's wind the clock时钟 back.
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我的意思是,你是如何成为一名工程
师,以及 SpaceX 的总裁的?
01:22
I mean, how did you end结束 up an engineer工程师
and President主席 of SpaceXSpaceX公司?
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在你还是小女孩的时候,
是不是非常的书呆子气?
01:26
Were you supernerdysupernerdy as a girl女孩?
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格:我不觉得那时候我是书呆子,
01:29
GSGS: I don't think I was nerdy书呆子,
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但是我确实会做一些
其他女孩不会去做的事。
01:30
but I was definitely无疑 doing the things
that the girls女孩 weren't doing.
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我妈妈是个艺术家。
在三年级的时候我问她,
01:33
I asked my mom妈妈, who was an artist艺术家,
when I was in third第三 grade年级,
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01:37
how a car汽车 worked工作,
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汽车是如何工作的。
她回答不了这些问题,所以她
给了我一本书,我读了这本书。
01:38
so she had no idea理念 so she gave me
a book, and I read it,
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果然,我拿到机械工程学位后的
第一份工作
01:41
and sure enough足够, my first job工作
out of my mechanical机械 engineering工程 degree
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是在汽车行业的克莱斯勒汽车公司。
01:46
was with Chrysler克莱斯勒 Motors汽车
in the automotive汽车 industry行业.
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但使我进入工程领域的实际原因
并不是因为那本书,
01:49
But I actually其实 got into engineering工程
not because of that book
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而是因为我妈妈带我参加了
一个女工程师学会的活动。
01:52
but because my mom妈妈 took me
to a Society社会 of Women妇女 Engineers工程师 event事件,
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我迷上了那个上台演讲的机械工程师。
01:55
and I fell下跌 in love with
the mechanical机械 engineer工程师 that spoke.
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她在做着真正重要的工作,
01:58
She was doing really critical危急 work,
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并且我很喜欢她穿的衣服。
02:00
and I loved喜爱 her suit适合.
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(笑声)
02:02
(Laughter笑声)
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这就是一个15岁的女孩
如何跟机械工程扯上关系的。
02:03
And that's what a 15-year-old-岁
girl女孩 connects所连接 with.
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而我曾经总是避免去说起这段故事,
02:05
And I used to shy害羞 away
from telling告诉 that story故事,
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但是如果要说
我为什么会成为一名工程师--
02:08
but if that's what caused造成 me
to be an engineer工程师 --
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嘿,我想我们应该讲讲这个故事。
02:10
hey, I think we should talk about that.
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克:16年前,你成为了
SpaceX公司的第七位员工。
02:12
CACA: Sixteen十六 years年份 ago, you became成为
employee雇员 number seven at SpaceXSpaceX公司,
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然后过了几年,
02:18
and then over the next下一个 years年份,
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你不知怎的,就跟美国航空航天局
建立了涉及几十亿美元的合作关系,
02:20
you somehow不知何故 built内置 a multi-billion-dollar数十亿美元
relationship关系 with NASANASA,
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即使SpaceX的前三次发射
都发生了爆炸。
02:25
despite尽管 the fact事实 that SpaceX'sSpaceX公司
first three launches发布会 blew自爆 up.
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我想说的是,你是如何做到的?
02:29
I mean, how on earth地球 did you do that?
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格:事实上,销售火箭就是
关于与这些客户
02:31
GSGS: So actually其实, selling销售 rockets火箭
is all about relationships关系
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保持良好的关系,
并与他们沟通交流。
02:35
and making制造 a connection连接
with these customers顾客.
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当你没有火箭可卖的时候,
02:37
When you don't have a rocket火箭 to sell,
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很重要的事情就是推销你的团队,
02:39
what's really important重要
is selling销售 your team球队,
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推销你的CEO的商业智慧——
02:41
selling销售 the business商业 savvy精明 of your CEOCEO --
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现在这些都不难推销——
02:44
that's not really hard
to sell these days --
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并且大体上,要确保你能够
快速地处理好他们拥有的
02:46
and basically基本上, making制造 sure
that any technical技术 issue问题 that they have
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任何技术上的问题或者担忧。
02:49
or any concern关心,
you can address地址 right away.
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所以我想我的工程师身份
对此是有帮助的。
02:51
So I think it was helpful有帮助
for me to be an engineer工程师.
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这对我能胜任为埃隆做销售这个角色
是有帮助的。
02:55
I think it was helpful有帮助 to my role角色
of running赛跑 sales销售 for Elon伊隆.
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克:目前,公司的一个重点,
02:58
CACA: And currently目前,
a big focus焦点 of the company公司
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我想,是与波音公司的竞赛。
03:01
is, I guess猜测, kind of a race种族 with Boeing波音
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看谁能首先为美国航空航天局提供
03:03
to be the first to provide提供
the service服务 to NASANASA
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送人进入太空轨道的服务。
03:06
of actually其实 putting humans人类 into orbit轨道.
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03:12
Safety安全 considerations注意事项 obviously明显
come to the fore前面, here.
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对此,安全显然是最重要的考量。
你的睡眠怎么样?
03:15
How are you sleeping睡眠?
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格:我实际上睡得很香。
03:18
GSGS: I actually其实 sleep睡觉 really well.
I'm a good sleeper轨枕, that's my best最好 thing.
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我总是睡得很好,
这是我最棒的一点。
03:22
But I think the days leading领导 up
to our flying飞行 crew船员
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但是我想,
在载人上天之前的那些日子里,
可能会有一点小小的失眠。
03:26
will probably大概 be a little sleepless无眠.
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03:28
But really, fundamentally从根本上,
safety安全 comes in the design设计
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不过基本上,安全来自那个
你即将用来载人上天的系统的设计。
03:32
of the system系统 that you're going
to fly people on,
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而我们已在这项技术上工作了数年。
03:34
and so we've我们已经 been working加工 for years年份,
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事实上,接近十年了。
03:36
actually其实, almost几乎 a decade,
on this technology技术.
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我们在发射天龙号货运飞船,
03:38
We're taking服用 the Dragon cargo货物 spaceship飞船
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并且在升级它,以便能够载人。
03:41
and we're upgrading升级 it
to be able能够 to carry携带 crew船员.
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正如我所说,
我们在这些安全系统上的设计
03:43
And as I said, we've我们已经 been
engineering工程 in these safety安全 systems系统
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已经进行了相当长的时间了。
03:47
for quite相当 some time.
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克:是不是有一个系统
会在飞船发生问题的时候,
03:49
CACA: So isn't it that there's one system系统
that actually其实 allows允许 instant瞬间 escape逃逸
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允许航天员即时逃脱?
03:53
if there's a problem问题.
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格:对的,它被称作发射和逃逸系统。
03:55
GSGS: That's right. It's called
the launch发射 escape逃逸 system系统.
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克:我想我们有这个视频,
我们来看一看。
03:57
CACA: I think we have that. Let's show显示 that.
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格:我们有一个2015年
测试时的视频。
03:59
GSGS: We've我们已经 got a video视频
of a test测试 that we ran in 2015.
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04:03
So this simulated模拟 having
a really bad day on the pad.
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那次模拟的是
在发射台上发生了严重的问题。
基本上,你想要太空舱尽快逃离这里。
04:07
Basically基本上, you want the capsule胶囊
to get out of Dodge道奇.
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你想要它远离下方发生问题的火箭。
04:09
You want it to get away from the rocket火箭
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04:11
that had a bad day right below下面 it.
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04:14
This is if there was an issue问题 on the pad.
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这是假设发射台上出了问题。
今年晚些时候
我们还会做另外一个试验,
04:16
We also will be doing
another另一个 demonstration示范 later后来 this year
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模拟如果在飞行期间火箭出现问题
会发生什么。
04:19
on if we have an issue问题
with the rocket火箭 during flight飞行.
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04:23
CACA: And those rockets火箭 have another另一个
potential潜在 function功能 as well, eventually终于.
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克:事实上,
这些火箭还有另外的潜在功能。
格:是的,天龙号上的发射逃逸系统
是非常独特的。
04:27
GSGS: Yeah, so the launch发射 escape逃逸 system系统
for Dragon is pretty漂亮 unique独特.
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它是一个集成的发射逃逸系统。
04:30
It's an integrated集成 launch发射 escape逃逸 system系统.
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它主要是一个推进器,
04:32
It's basically基本上 a pusher,
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助力系统和推进器被集成到了太空舱,
04:33
so the propellant推进物 system系统 and the thrusters推进器
are integrated集成 into the capsule胶囊,
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而如果它检测到火箭故障
就会把太空舱推开。
04:38
and so if it detects检测 a rocket火箭 problem问题,
it pushes the capsule胶囊 away.
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过去的太空舱安全系统
一直是类似于牵引器的设施。
04:42
Capsule胶囊 safety安全 systems系统 in the past过去
have been like tractor拖拉机 pullers车夫,
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而我们之所以不想继续沿用这种系统,
04:46
and the reason原因 we didn't want to do that
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是因为,在你安全的重返太空舱之前
需要先将那些牵引器剥离。
04:48
is that puller needs需求 to come off before
you can safely安然 reenter重新进入 that capsule胶囊,
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所以,我们想在设计上就将那种
可能的失败消除掉。
04:51
so we wanted to eliminate消除, in design设计,
that possibility可能性 of failure失败.
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04:57
CACA: I mean, SpaceXSpaceX公司 has made制作
the regular定期 reusability可重用性 of rockets火箭
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克:我是说,SpaceX已经使
火箭的常规回收
看起来成为了日常,
05:01
seem似乎 almost几乎 routine常规,
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而这意味着,你做了一些
05:03
which哪一个 means手段 you've doneDONE something
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此前的任何太空计划
05:05
that no national国民
space空间 program程序, for example,
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都没能达到的事情。
05:08
has been able能够 to achieve实现.
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这是怎么做到的呢?
05:10
How was that possible可能?
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05:12
GSGS: I think there's a couple一对 of things --
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格:我想有一些事情——
事实上,成千上万的东西——
05:15
there's a million百万 things, actually其实 --
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使SpaceX能够取得成功。
05:17
that have allowed允许 SpaceXSpaceX公司 to be successful成功.
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首先,我们很大程度上
是站在巨人的肩膀上。对吗?
05:20
The first is that we're kind of standing常设
on the shoulders肩膀 of giants豪门. Right?
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我们能够看到目前为止
在火箭领域的发展,
05:23
We got to look at the rocket火箭 industry行业
and the developments发展 to date日期,
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而我们能够挑选其中最好的想法,
05:28
and we got to pick the best最好 ideas思路,
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并且利用他们。
05:30
leverage杠杆作用 them.
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同时,我们也不需要考虑
05:32
We also didn't have technology技术
that we had to include包括
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必须包含在我们车辆系统中的技术。
05:36
in our vehicle车辆 systems系统.
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所以,我们不必设计那些
05:38
So we didn't have to design设计
around legacy遗产 components组件
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不可靠或特别昂贵的遗留组件。
05:42
that maybe weren't the most reliable可靠
or were particularly尤其 expensive昂贵,
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我们能够真正的
让物理学驱动这些系统的设计。
05:45
so we really were able能够 to let physics物理
drive驾驶 the design设计 of these systems系统.
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克:我想说,还有些其他的项目
是从零开始的。
05:49
CACA: I mean, there are other programs程式
started开始 from scratch.
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你刚才说的最后一句话,
你让物理驱动设计,
05:52
That last phrase短语 you said there,
you let physics物理 drive驾驶 the design设计,
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有什么例子吗?
05:55
what's an example of that?
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格:实际上,有几百个例子,
05:57
GSGS: There's hundreds数以百计 of examples例子,
actually其实, of that,
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不过基本上,我们要从一张白纸上
06:01
but basically基本上, we got to construct构造
the vehicle车辆 design设计
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开始构造车辆设计,
06:05
from, really, a clean清洁 sheet of paper,
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而我们要做出我们想做的决定。
06:07
and we got to make decisions决定
that we wanted to make.
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罐子的构造——
是一个常见的圆顶设计。
06:11
The tank坦克 architecture建筑 --
it's a common共同 dome拱顶 design设计.
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基本上它就像是两个
叠起来的啤酒罐,
06:14
Basically基本上 it's like two beer啤酒 cans
stacked堆叠 together一起,
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一个装满了液氧,
06:16
one full充分 of liquid液体 oxygen,
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另一个装满了火箭推进剂,
06:18
one full充分 of RPRP,
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而这基本上节省了重量。
06:20
and that basically基本上 saved保存 weight重量.
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它允许了我们在同样的设计中
获得更多有效载荷。
06:23
It allowed允许 us to basically基本上 take
more payload有效载荷 for the same相同 design设计.
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我们正在试飞的飞行器
的另一个元素是,
06:27
One of the other elements分子 of the vehicle车辆
that we're flying飞行 right now
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我们使用了致密液态氧
和致密火箭推进剂,
06:31
is we do use densified致密
liquid液体 oxygen and densified致密 RPRP,
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所以它的温度极低,
06:34
so it's ultracold,
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并且使你得以将更多的推进剂
装进飞船。
06:36
and it allows允许 you to pack
more propellent推进剂 into the vehicle车辆.
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这是在别的地方完成的,
06:40
It is doneDONE elsewhere别处,
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可能不像我们所做的那样,
06:42
probably大概 not to the degree that we do it,
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但它给了飞行器很多余量,
06:44
but it adds增加 a lot
of margin余量 to the vehicle车辆,
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这显然增加了可靠性。
06:46
which哪一个 obviously明显 adds增加 reliability可靠性.
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克:格温,我想,你是在 10 年前
成为 SpaceX 的总裁的。
06:48
CACA: Gwynne格温, you became成为 President主席
of SpaceXSpaceX公司 10 years年份 ago, I think.
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和埃隆·马斯克如此紧密合作
是什么感觉?
06:53
What's it been like to work
so closely密切 with Elon伊隆 Musk?
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06:57
GSGS: So I love working加工 for Elon伊隆.
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我热爱为埃隆工作。
事实上,到今年为止,
我已经做了 16 年了。
06:59
I've been doing it for 16 years年份
this year, actually其实.
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我并不认为我会傻到做一件
我不喜欢的事情
07:02
I don't think I'm dumb enough足够
to do something for 16 years年份
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长达 16 年。
07:05
that I don't like doing.
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他很有趣,
07:07
He's funny滑稽
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而根本上讲,
他能够在什么都不说的情况下,
07:09
and fundamentally从根本上 without
him saying anything
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驱使你把工作做到最好。
07:12
he drives驱动器 you to do your best最好 work.
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07:16
He doesn't have to say a word.
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他一个词都不需要说。
你就是想把工作干好。
07:17
You just want to do great work.
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07:20
CACA: You might威力 be the person
best最好 placed放置 to answer回答 this question,
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克:你可能是
回答这个问题的最佳人选,
这个问题已经困扰我很久了。
07:23
which哪一个 has puzzled困惑 me,
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你能否阐明一下“埃隆时间”
07:24
which哪一个 is to shed light
on this strange奇怪 unit单元 of time
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这一奇怪的时间单位?
07:28
called "Elon伊隆 time."
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比如,去年,你知道的,
我问过埃隆,
07:30
For example, last year,
I asked Elon伊隆, you know,
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特斯拉会在什么时候全自动驾驶
穿越美国,
07:34
when Tesla特斯拉 would
auto-drive自动驱动器 across横过 America美国,
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而他说,在去年12月之前,
07:37
and he said by last December十二月,
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而这绝对是真的,如果你把埃隆时间
考虑进去的话。
07:39
which哪一个 is definitely无疑 true真正,
if you take Elon伊隆 time into account帐户.
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所以,埃隆时间和实际时间的
换算比率是多少?
07:44
So what's the conversion转变 ratio
between之间 Elon伊隆 time and real真实 time?
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(笑声)
07:48
(Laughter笑声)
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格:你把我放到了一个独特的位置,
克里斯。
07:49
GSGS: You put me
in a unique独特 position位置, Chris克里斯.
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谢谢你。
07:51
Thanks谢谢 for that.
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毫无疑问,埃隆在时间规划上
非常激进,
07:53
There's no question that Elon伊隆
is very aggressive侵略性 on his timelines时间线,
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但坦率的说,这驱使着我们
做得更快更好。
07:56
but frankly坦率地说, that drives驱动器 us
to do things better and faster更快.
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我想世界上所有的钱和时间
08:01
I think all the time
and all the money in the world世界
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都不能产生最好的解决方案,
08:03
does not yield产量 the best最好 solution,
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所以给团队施加压力,
让他们快速行动,真的十分重要。
08:05
and so putting that pressure压力 on the team球队
to move移动 quickly很快 is really important重要.
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08:11
CACA: It feels感觉 like you play
kind of a key intermediary中介 role角色 here.
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克:我感觉你在这里担任着
非常重要的中间角色。
我的意思是,他设定了这些
疯狂的目标,
08:14
I mean, he sets these crazy goals目标
that have their impact碰撞,
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他们有着自己的影响和用途,
08:19
but, in other circumstances情况,
might威力 blow打击 up a team球队
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但,在其他情况下,
这可能毁掉一个团队
或者设定不可能达到的期望。
08:22
or set impossible不可能 expectations期望.
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08:24
It feels感觉 like you've found发现 a way
of saying, "Yes, Elon伊隆,"
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看上去你似乎找到了一种对埃隆说
“是的,埃隆” 的方法,
08:28
and then making制造 it happen发生
in a way that is acceptable接受
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然后让事情变得能够同时被埃隆,
以及你的公司和员工,所接受。
08:31
both to him and to your company公司,
to your employees雇员.
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08:34
GSGS: There is two really important重要
realizations变现 for that.
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格:有两点非常重要。
首先,当埃隆说了点什么,
你必须停住,
08:37
First of all, when Elon伊隆 says something,
you have to pause暂停
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而不要脱口而出,
“那是不可能的,”
08:42
and not immediately立即 blurt脱口而出 out,
"Well, that's impossible不可能,"
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或是说 “我们不可能做到。
我不知道怎么做。”
08:46
or, "There's no way we're going
to do that. I don't know how."
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你把这个想法封住,
然后仔细思考这件事,
08:49
So you zip压缩 it, and you think about it,
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然后你便会找到方法来完成它。
08:51
and you find ways方法 to get that doneDONE.
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08:53
And the other thing I realized实现,
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而我意识到的另一件事是,
这让我对工作的满意度大大降低。
08:56
and it made制作 my job工作 satisfaction满意
substantially基本上 harder更难.
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我总觉得我的工作是
接受这些想法,
08:59
So I always felt like my job工作
was to take these ideas思路
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然后把它们变成公司的目标,
让它们成为可能,
09:04
and kind of turn them into company公司 goals目标,
make them achievable实现,
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然后让公司翻过这个陡峭的斜坡,
让它感到舒适。
09:07
and kind of roll the company公司 over
from this steep slope, get it comfortable自在.
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而我注意到,每次我觉得我们
就要到那里时,
09:12
And I noticed注意到 every一切 time
I felt like we were there,
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3039
我们即将翻过陡坡,
人们变得更自在的时候,
09:15
we were rolling压延 over,
people were getting得到 comfortable自在,
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埃隆便会拿出一些东西,
09:18
Elon伊隆 would throw something out there,
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然后,忽然之间,我们不再安适,
09:20
and all of a sudden突然, we're not comfortable自在
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而我们需要重新爬那个陡坡。
09:22
and we're climbing攀登 that steep slope again.
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不过后来我意识到这是他的工作,
09:24
But then once一旦 I realized实现
that that's his job工作,
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2626
而我的工作便是让公司
尽可能的感到舒适,
09:27
and my job工作 is to get the company公司
close to comfortable自在
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这样埃隆就可以再次推进,
将我们放回陡坡上。
09:30
so he can push again
and put us back on that slope,
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2709
这样,我开始更喜欢我的工作了,
09:33
then I started开始 liking喜欢 my job工作 a lot more,
194
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而并非总是感到沮丧。
09:35
instead代替 of always being存在 frustrated受挫.
195
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克:那么,如果我估计
从埃隆时间,到你的时间的换算比
09:37
CACA: So if I estimated预计
that the conversation会话 ratio
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3301
是大约两倍的话,
09:41
for Elon伊隆 time to your time is about 2x,
197
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2293
我差的远吗?
09:43
am I a long way out there?
198
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2920
格:那还不算太糟糕。
而且这可是你说的,不是我说的。
09:46
GSGS: That's not terrible可怕,
and you said it, I didn't.
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(笑声)
09:48
(Laughter笑声)
200
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1991
克:你知道的,展望未来,
09:50
CACA: You know, looking ahead,
201
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有一个重大项目,
09:53
one huge巨大 initiative倡议
202
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据传,Space X 正在研究,
09:54
SpaceXSpaceX公司 is believed相信 to be,
rumored传闻 to be working加工 on,
203
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3006
一个由成千上万颗低地球轨道卫星
组成的庞大网络,
09:57
is a massive大规模的 network网络 of literally按照字面
thousands数千 of low earth地球 orbit轨道 satellites卫星
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以此为地球上的每一寸土地
10:04
to provide提供 high-bandwidth高带宽,
low-cost低成本 internet互联网 connection连接
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提供高带宽、低成本的互联网连接。
10:07
to every一切 square广场 foot脚丫子 of planet行星 earth地球.
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2365
对此你有什么可以告诉我们的吗?
10:10
Is there anything
you can tell us about this?
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格:我们实际上并不怎么谈论
这个特别的项目,
10:12
GSGS: We actually其实 don't chat very much
about this particular特定 project项目,
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并非因为我们在藏着些什么,
10:16
not because we're hiding anything,
209
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而是因为这可能是我们所承担过的
10:18
but this is probably大概
one of the most challenging具有挑战性的
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2246
最具挑战性的项目之一。
10:20
if not the most challenging具有挑战性的
project项目 we've我们已经 undertaken开展.
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2538
还没有人能成功地
10:23
No one has been successful成功
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部署大范围的互联网宽带,
10:25
deploying部署 a huge巨大 constellation星座
for internet互联网 broadband宽带,
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或者说卫星网络,
10:28
or basically基本上 for satellite卫星 internet互联网,
214
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2299
而我并不认为物理是这里的难题。
10:30
and I don't think physics物理
is the difficulty困难 here.
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我想我们可以找出
技术上的解决方案,
10:33
I think we can come up
with the right technology技术 solution,
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但我们需要从中获利。
10:36
but we need to make a business商业 out of it,
217
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部署该系统
10:38
and it'll它会 cost成本 the company公司
about 10 billion十亿 dollars美元 or more
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3587
会让公司付出大约100亿美元
或更多的代价。
10:42
to deploy部署 this system系统.
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1761
所以,我们在稳步前进,
10:44
And so we're marching行军 steadily稳步 along沿
220
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但我们肯定还没有宣布胜利。
10:48
but we're certainly当然
not claiming自称 victory胜利 yet然而.
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2365
克:我的意思是,显然,
如果这发生在世界上,
10:50
CACA: I mean, the impact碰撞 of that,
obviously明显, if that happened发生 to the world世界,
222
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建立无处不在的连接的影响,
会很剧烈,
10:54
of connectivity连接 everywhere到处,
would be pretty漂亮 radical激进,
223
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3388
而且或许主要是好的影响——
10:57
and perhaps也许 mainly主要 for good --
224
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1493
我是说,如果突然间每个人
都可以廉价地互相联系,
10:59
I mean, it changes变化 a lot
if suddenly突然 everyone大家 can connect cheaply廉价地.
225
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3815
这会是个很大的变化。
11:02
GSGS: Yeah, there's no question
it'll它会 change更改 the world世界.
226
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2477
格:是的,毫无疑问,它会改变世界。
克:人们对太空垃圾
11:05
CACA: How much of a worry担心 is it,
227
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1848
的担忧有多少,
11:07
and how much of a drag拖动
on the planning规划 is it,
228
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2183
对计划的拖累有多大?
11:09
are concerns关注 just about space空间 junk破烂?
229
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1985
人们对此很担心。
11:11
People worry担心 a lot about this.
230
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这会显著增加绕地球的卫星数量。
11:12
This would a huge巨大 increase增加 in the total
number of satellites卫星 in orbit轨道.
231
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3343
这是一个问题吗?
11:16
Is that a concern关心?
232
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1151
格:那么毫无疑问,
太空碎片是个问题——
11:17
GSGS: So space空间 debris废墟 is a concern关心,
there's no question --
233
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3681
并非因为它发生的可能性很大,
11:21
not because it's so likely容易 to happen发生,
234
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2515
而是因为,一旦发生了,
后果不堪设想。
11:23
but the consequences后果 of it happening事件
are pretty漂亮 devastating破坏性的.
235
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3894
基本上,你可以在轨道上
喷出一堆粒子,
11:27
You could basically基本上 spew
a bunch of particles粒子 in orbit轨道
236
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3766
而这会使得轨道在几十年
或更长时间里变得无法使用。
11:31
that could take out that orbit轨道
from being存在 useful有用 for decades几十年 or longer.
237
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5158
11:36
So as a matter of fact事实,
238
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1818
11:38
we are required需要 to bring带来 down
our second第二 stage阶段 after every一切 mission任务
239
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3879
事实上,在每次任务后,
我们都被要求取下我们的二级卫星,
这样它就不会变成
一块绕地球运行的火箭残骸。
11:42
so it doesn't end结束 up being存在
a rocket火箭 carcass胴体 orbiting轨道 earth地球.
240
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4127
所以你真的需要做一个好的管家。
11:46
So you really need to be
a good steward管家 of that.
241
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2816
11:50
CACA: So despite尽管
the remarkable卓越 success成功 there
242
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4100
克:所以尽管猎鹰重型火箭
取得了巨大的成功,
你实际上并没有把注意力放在这上面
11:54
of that Falcon Heavy rocket火箭,
243
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3347
作为你未来的发展计划。
11:57
you're actually其实 not focusing调焦 on that
as your future未来 development发展 plan计划.
244
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你们的注意力集中在另一个
大了许多的火箭,
12:01
You're doubling加倍 down
to a much bigger rocket火箭
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叫做 BFR,
12:04
called the BFRBFR,
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它代表着……
12:05
which哪一个 stands站立 for ...
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格:它是大猎鹰火箭(BFR)。
克:大猎鹰火箭,没错。
12:07
GSGS: It's the Big Falcon Rocket火箭.
CACA: The Big Falcon Rocket火箭, that's right.
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(笑声)
12:11
(Laughter笑声)
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这么做的商业逻辑是什么,
12:13
What's the business商业 logic逻辑 of doing this
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当你在这一不可思议的技术上
做了所有那些投资,
12:16
when you invested投资 all that
in that incredible难以置信 technology技术,
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而现在你只是要做一个
放大版的东西。为什么?
12:19
and now you're just going
to something much bigger. Why?
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实际上,我们已经吸取了一些教训
12:22
GSGS: Actually其实, we've我们已经 learned学到了 some lessons教训
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在开发这些发射系统的这段时间里。
12:24
over the duration持续时间 where we've我们已经
been developing发展 these launch发射 systems系统.
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我们想做的并不是
在还没来得及推出新产品前
12:28
What we want to do is not introduce介绍
a new product产品 before we've我们已经 been able能够
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就让客户相信这是他们应该
转移到的产品。
12:32
to convince说服 the customers顾客 that this
is the product产品 that they should move移动 to,
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所以我们现在正在研究大猎鹰火箭,
12:36
so we're working加工 on
the Big Falcon Rocket火箭 now,
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但我们仍将继续试飞
“猎鹰9号”和“猎鹰2号”,
12:39
but we're going to continue继续
flying飞行 Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies重型戰車
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直到大猎鹰火箭被广泛接受。
12:43
until直到 there is absolute绝对
widespread广泛 acceptance验收 of BFRBFR.
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12:46
But we are working加工 on it right now,
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我们现在正在努力。
我们不会取消猎鹰9号和重型猎鹰号
12:48
we're just not going to cancel取消
Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy
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而用大猎鹰火箭取而代之。
12:52
and just put in place地点 BFRBFR.
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克:这里的逻辑是,大猎鹰火箭
能够将人类带去火星?
12:55
CACA: The logic逻辑 is that BFRBFR is what you need
to take humanity人性 to Mars火星?
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格:是的。
12:59
GSGS: That's correct正确.
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克:不过,你也发现了一些
其他的商业想法。
13:00
CACA: But somehow不知何故, you've also found发现
other business商业 ideas思路 for this.
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格:是的。大猎鹰火箭能够将
我们目前正在发射的卫星
13:04
GSGS: Yes. BFRBFR can take the satellites卫星
that we're currently目前 taking服用 to orbit轨道
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送入轨道。
13:08
to many许多 orbits轨道.
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它甚至允许一种新的卫星被送入轨道。
13:09
It allows允许 for even a new class
of satellites卫星 to be delivered交付 to orbit轨道.
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基本上,整流罩的宽度,直径是8米,
13:15
Basically基本上, the width宽度, the diameter直径
of the fairing整流罩 is eight meters,
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783013
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所以你可以想想
有什么巨大的望远镜
13:18
so you can think about
what giant巨人 telescopes望远镜
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你能够安装在
整流罩里,在货舱里,
13:21
you can put in that fairing整流罩,
in that cargo货物 bay,
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然后看到一些惊人的东西,
13:24
and see really incredible难以置信 things
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在太空中发现不可思议的东西。
13:26
and discover发现 incredible难以置信 things in space空间.
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不过在大猎鹰火箭之中
13:28
But then there are some
residual剩余的 capabilities功能
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也有一些剩余的能力。
13:31
that we have out of BFRBFR as well.
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克:剩余能力?
格:它是个剩余能力。
13:33
CACA: A residual剩余的 capability能力?
GSGS: It's a residual剩余的 capability能力.
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克:你们是这么叫它的吗?
讲讲这到底是什么吧。
13:36
CACA: Is that what you call this?
Talk about what the heck赫克 this is.
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哦等一下——
13:39
Oh wait a sec --
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格:那是重型猎鹰。
13:40
GSGS: That's Falcon Heavy.
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顺便说一下,这值得被指出来。
13:41
That's worth价值 pointing指点 out, by the way.
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多么美丽的火箭,
13:43
What a beautiful美丽 rocket火箭,
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那个飞机库刚好能装下
里面的自由女神像,
13:45
and that hangar机库 could just fit适合
the Statue雕像 of Liberty自由 in it,
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这样你就能大概知道
猎鹰重型火箭的尺寸有多大了。
13:49
so you get a sense of size尺寸
of that Falcon Heavy Rocket火箭.
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克:以及
它有 27 个引擎这一事实。
13:54
CACA: And the fact事实 that
there are 27 engines引擎 there.
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这是设计原则的一部分,
13:56
That's part部分 of the design设计 principle原理
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你,并不是仅仅发明更大的火箭,
13:58
that you, rather than just
inventing发明了 ever bigger rockets火箭,
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而是把他们组合在一起。
14:01
you team球队 them up.
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格:就是这个剩余能力。
14:03
GSGS: It's exactly究竟 this residual剩余的 capability能力.
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831014
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我们为猎鹰1号运载火箭
开发了梅林发动机。
14:05
We developed发达 the Merlin梅林 engine发动机
for the Falcon 1 launch发射 vehicle车辆.
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我们可以把这个引擎扔了,
14:08
We could have tossed that engine发动机
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836166
1766
然后为猎鹰9号
制造一个全新的引擎。
14:09
and built内置 an entirely完全 new engine发动机
for the Falcon 9.
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2961
它会有另一个名字,
14:12
It would have been called
something different不同,
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840941
2178
因为因为猎鹰9号是9个梅林引擎。
14:15
because Falcon 9 is nine Merlin梅林 engines引擎,
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843143
1905
但我们并没有花 10 亿美元
来研发一个全新的引擎,
14:17
but instead代替 of spending开支 a billion十亿 dollars美元
on a brand new engine发动机,
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845072
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而是把它们九个
一起放在猎鹰9号的后端。
14:20
we put nine of them together一起
on the back end结束 of Falcon 9.
295
848135
3186
剩余能力:
将三个猎鹰9号粘在一起,
14:23
Residual残余 capability能力:
glue three Falcon 9s together一起
296
851345
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14:26
and you have the largest最大
operational操作 rocket火箭 flying飞行.
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3119
你就能让最大的操作火箭升空。
这样做很昂贵,
14:29
And so it was expensive昂贵 to do,
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857592
1809
但和从零开始相比,
这是条更高效的道路。
14:31
but it was a much more efficient高效 path路径
than starting开始 from scratch.
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859425
3226
克:而且就其功率而言,
14:34
CACA: And the BFRBFR is the equivalent当量
of how much bigger than that,
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862675
3861
大猎鹰火箭相当于比它大多少?
14:38
in terms条款 of its power功率?
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1151
格:大猎鹰火箭大约是,我相信,
它的二点五倍大。
14:39
GSGS: BFRBFR is about, I believe,
two and half times the size尺寸 of this.
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867735
3120
克:对,那么这就允许了你——
14:42
CACA: Right, and so that allows允许 you --
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870879
1977
我的意思是,我仍然不太相信
我们即将播放的这个视频。
14:44
I mean, I still don't really believe
this video视频 that we're about to play here.
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872880
3687
这到底是什么?
14:48
What on earth地球 is this?
305
876591
1851
14:50
GSGS: So it currently目前 is on earth地球,
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2859
格:它现在是在地球上,
不过这基本上是地球人的太空旅行。
14:53
but this is basically基本上
space空间 travel旅行 for earthlings地球人.
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881746
3132
我等不及这个剩余能力了。
14:56
I can't wait for this residual剩余的 capability能力.
308
884903
2221
基本上,我们要做的
就是像飞机一样飞行大猎鹰火箭,
14:59
Basically基本上, what we're going to do
is we're going to fly BFRBFR like an aircraft飞机
309
887148
4656
并且在地球上做点对点的旅行。
15:03
and do point-to-point点对点 travel旅行 on earth地球,
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891828
2586
你可以从纽约或者温哥华出发,
15:06
so you can take off
from New York纽约 City or Vancouver温哥华
311
894438
4027
然后绕地球半圈。
15:10
and fly halfway across横过 the globe地球.
312
898489
2038
你会在大猎鹰火箭里待上
大约半小时到四十分钟,
15:12
You'll你会 be on the BFRBFR for roughly大致
half an hour小时 or 40 minutes分钟,
313
900551
4015
然后最长的部分——
是啊,这太棒了。
15:16
and the longest最长 part部分 --
yeah, it's so awesome真棒.
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904590
2444
(掌声)
15:19
(Applause掌声)
315
907058
1092
这趟飞行中最长的部分
其实是摆渡船的往返。
15:20
The longest最长 part部分 of that flight飞行
is actually其实 the boat out and back.
316
908174
4193
(笑声)
15:24
(Laughter笑声)
317
912391
1001
克:我想说。格温,
这非常棒,但它很疯狂,对吗?
15:25
CACA: I mean. Gwynne格温, come on,
this is awesome真棒, but it's crazy, right?
318
913416
3402
这永远不会发生。
15:28
This is never going to actually其实 happen发生.
319
916842
2850
格:哦,不,这肯定会发生。
15:31
GSGS: Oh no, it's definitely无疑
going to happen发生.
320
919716
2019
这绝对会实际发生。
15:33
This is definitely无疑 going to happen发生.
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克:怎么发生?
15:35
CACA: How?
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923450
1151
(掌声)
15:36
(Applause掌声)
323
924625
4134
首先来说,所有的国家都要
接受这个进来的导弹——
15:40
So first of all, countries国家 are going
to accept接受 this incoming missile导弹 --
324
928783
4256
(笑声)
15:45
(Laughter笑声)
325
933063
1001
格:克里斯,你能不能想象
我们试图说服一个
15:46
GSGS: Chris克里斯, so can you imagine想像
us trying to convince说服 a federal联邦 range范围,
326
934088
4341
联邦范围内的空军基地
接受入侵者?
15:50
Air空气 Force bases基地 to take the incomers移民?
327
938453
2143
因为我们现在正在定期做这件事,
对吧?
15:52
Because we're doing it now,
regularly经常, right?
328
940620
2180
我们带回一阶火箭,
15:54
We're bringing使 the first stages阶段 back,
329
942824
1801
然后将他们降落在
空军基地的联邦财产上。
15:56
and we're landing降落 them
on federal联邦 property属性 on an Air空气 Force base基础.
330
944649
3007
所以我想这样做,我不知道,
15:59
So I think doing it, I don't know,
331
947680
1745
离城市十公里,
也许离一个城市只有五公里远。
16:01
10 kilometers公里 out from a city, maybe
it's only five kilometers公里 out from a city.
332
949449
3729
克:所以大概有多少乘客
能负担得起这笔
16:05
CACA: So how many许多 passengers乘客
can possibly或者 afford给予 the fortune幸运
333
953202
2815
16:08
of flying飞行 by space空间?
334
956041
1019
通过太空飞行的费用呢?
格:第一代大猎鹰火箭能承载
大约一百名乘客。
16:09
GSGS: So the first BFRBFR is going to have
roughly大致 a hundred passengers乘客.
335
957132
5008
我们来稍微谈一谈这桩生意。
16:14
And let's talk a little bit
about the business商业.
336
962165
2198
每个人都认为火箭非常昂贵,
16:16
Everyone大家 thinks rockets火箭
are really expensive昂贵,
337
964387
2142
而很大程度上的确是这样,
16:18
and to a large degree they are,
338
966554
1539
16:20
and how could we possibly或者 compete竞争
with airline航空公司 tickets门票 here?
339
968463
2810
所以我们怎么才能和飞机票竞争呢?
但如果你仔细想想,
如果我能在半个到一个小时内
16:23
But if you think about it,
if I can do this trip
340
971298
2315
飞完这趟旅途,
16:25
in half an hour小时 to an hour小时,
341
973638
2929
我能在几天内完成几十趟,对吗?
16:28
I can do dozens许多 of these a day, right?
342
976591
2956
然而,一架长途飞机
每天只能做一次这样的飞行。
16:31
And yet然而, a long-haul长途 aircraft飞机
can only make one of those flights航班 a day.
343
979571
3622
所以即使我的火箭和燃料
16:35
So even if my rocket火箭
was slightly more expensive昂贵
344
983217
2309
会稍微更昂贵一些,
16:37
and the fuel汽油 is
a little bit more expensive昂贵,
345
985550
2036
我能在一天内达到他们
至少十倍的运行量,
16:39
I can run 10x at least最小
what they're running赛跑 in a day,
346
987611
2900
并从这个系统中获得我需要的收入。
16:42
and really make the revenue收入
that I need to out of that system系统.
347
990536
3491
所以你真的相信这会在
我们了不起的未来的
16:46
CACA: So you really believe this is going
to be deployed部署 at some point
348
994051
3274
某一时刻被部署。什么时候?
16:49
in our amazing惊人 future未来. When?
349
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1669
格:肯定会在十年内。
16:51
GSGS: Within a decade, for sure.
350
999042
1843
16:53
CACA: And this is Gwynne格温 time or Elon伊隆 time?
351
1001495
2618
克:那这是格温时间还是埃隆时间?
格:这是格温时间。
我很肯定埃隆会想让我们走得更快。
16:56
GSGS: That's Gwynne格温 time.
I'm sure Elon伊隆 will want us to go faster更快.
352
1004137
3072
(笑声)
16:59
(Laughter笑声)
353
1007233
1245
17:01
CACA: OK, that's certainly当然 amazing惊人.
354
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4111
克:好的,这绝对很了不起。
(笑声)
17:05
(Laughter笑声)
355
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1621
格:我个人投资了这个,
因为我经常旅行,
17:06
GSGS: I'm personally亲自 invested投资 in this one,
because I travel旅行 a lot
356
1014836
3044
而我不喜欢旅行,
17:09
and I do not love to travel旅行,
357
1017904
1368
我很想去利雅得看看我
在那里的客户,
17:11
and I would love to get to see
my customers顾客 in Riyadh利雅得,
358
1019296
3587
早上离开,然后及时赶回家做晚饭。
17:14
leave离开 in the morning早上
and be back in time to make dinner晚餐.
359
1022907
3218
克:所以我们要试一试。
17:18
CACA: So we're going to test测试 this out.
360
1026149
1769
那么,在十年内,
一张经济舱价格的机票,
17:19
So within 10 years年份,
an economy经济 price价钱 ticket,
361
1027942
2770
或者大概每人几千美元的价格,
从纽约飞到上海。
17:22
or, like, a couple一对 thousand dollars美元
per person to fly New York纽约 to Shanghai上海.
362
1030736
5650
格:是啊,我想这会是
在经济和商务舱两者之间,
17:28
GSGS: Yeah, I think it'll它会 be between之间
economy经济 and business商业,
363
1036410
3110
只不过你在一个小时内完成旅途。
17:31
but you do it in an hour小时.
364
1039544
1398
克:是啊,嗯,好吧,
这绝对很了不起。
17:32
CACA: Yeah, well, OK,
that is definitely无疑 something.
365
1040966
2777
(笑声)
17:35
(Laughter笑声)
366
1043767
1001
同时,大猎鹰火箭正在开发中
的另一个用途
17:36
And meanwhile与此同时, the other use
of BFRBFR is being存在 developed发达
367
1044792
3339
比上海走得更远一些。
17:40
to go a little bit further进一步 than Shanghai上海.
368
1048155
3189
讲讲它吧。
17:43
Talk about this.
369
1051368
1242
你们已经发展出了一幅详细的,
17:44
You guys have actually其实 developed发达
quite相当 a detailed详细, sort分类 of, picture图片
370
1052634
3993
关于人类如何飞往火星的图景,
17:48
of how humans人类 might威力 fly to Mars火星,
371
1056651
3420
以及它看起来会是什么样。
17:52
and what that would look like.
372
1060095
1592
格:是啊。我们有一个视频,
这是从我们以前展示过的视频中
17:53
GSGS: Yeah. So we've我们已经 got a video视频,
this is a cropped裁剪 video视频
373
1061711
2572
剪辑出来的,同时增加了一些内容。
17:56
from others其他 we've我们已经 shown显示, and then
there's a couple一对 of new bits to it.
374
1064307
3309
总的来说,你要从一块垫子上起飞,
17:59
But basically基本上, you're going
to lift电梯 off from a pad,
375
1067640
3318
你有一个推进器,同时也有BFS,
大猎鹰飞船。
18:02
you've got a booster加速器 as well as the BFS高炉,
the Big Falcon Spaceship飞船.
376
1070982
3941
18:07
It's going to take off.
377
1075535
1182
它即将起飞。
18:11
The booster加速器 is going to drop下降
the spaceship飞船 off in orbit轨道,
378
1079550
3391
推进器会将宇宙飞船送入轨道,
低地球轨道,
18:14
low earth地球 orbit轨道,
379
1082965
1150
然后返回,就像我们现在
返回助推器一样。
18:16
and then return返回 just like
we're returning回国 boosters助推器 right now.
380
1084139
3206
这听起来不可思议,
但我们正在一步步研究它,
18:19
So it sounds声音 incredible难以置信,
but we're working加工 on the pieces,
381
1087369
2722
而你能够看到我们一步步
实现这些目标。
18:22
and you can see us achieve实现 these pieces.
382
1090115
1968
助推器回来了。
18:24
So booster加速器 comes back.
383
1092107
1203
这里新的事情是,
18:25
The new thing here
384
1093334
1151
我们实际上要降落在
我们被发射出去的平台上。
18:26
is that we're going to actually其实 land土地
on the pad that we launched推出 from.
385
1094509
3319
目前,我们降落在一个
独立的发射台,或者在船上降落。
18:29
Currently目前, we land土地 on a separate分离 pad,
or we land土地 out on a boat.
386
1097852
2968
18:33
Fast快速, quick connect.
387
1101390
1673
飞快,迅速的连接。
你带着一艘装满燃料的货船,
18:35
You take a cargo货物 ship full充分 of fuel汽油,
388
1103087
2669
或油库,
18:37
or a fuel汽油 depot仓库,
389
1105780
1173
把它放在助推器上,让它进入轨道,
18:38
put it on that booster加速器, get that in orbit轨道,
390
1106977
2474
做一个对接操作,给宇宙飞船加油,
18:41
do a docking对接 maneuver演习,
refuel加油 the spaceship飞船,
391
1109475
2924
18:45
and head on to your destination目的地,
392
1113979
1874
然后接着前往目的地,
这一次是火星。
18:47
and this one is Mars火星.
393
1115877
2113
18:51
CACA: So, like, a hundred people
go to Mars火星 at one time,
394
1119131
5301
克:所以,一次有一百个人去火星,
要花上,多久?六个月?两个月?
18:56
taking服用, what, six months个月? Two months个月?
395
1124456
2690
格:这最终取决于火箭有多大。
18:59
GSGS: It ends结束 up depending根据
on how big the rocket火箭 is.
396
1127170
2626
我想,在第一代,
旅行会耗费三个月,
19:01
I think this first version,
and we'll continue继续 to make
397
1129820
3182
而我们会接着制作
19:05
even bigger BFRsBFRs,
398
1133026
2158
甚至更大的大猎鹰火箭。
19:07
I think it's a three-month三个月 trip.
399
1135208
2031
目前,平均时间是六到八个月,
19:09
Right now, the average平均 is six to eight,
400
1137263
1915
不过我们会试着做到更快。
19:11
but we're going to try to do it faster更快.
401
1139202
1962
克:你认为SpaceX能在何时
首次将人类带上火星?
19:13
CACA: When do you believe SpaceXSpaceX公司
will land土地 the first human人的 on Mars火星?
402
1141188
4455
格:这和点对点旅行
是一个很相似的时间范围。
19:17
GSGS: It's a very similar类似 time frame
from the point-to-point点对点.
403
1145667
2762
他们的功能是相同的。
19:20
It's the same相同 capability能力.
404
1148453
1245
这会在十年之内发生——
不是这个十年。
19:21
It will be within a decade --
not this decade.
405
1149722
4209
克:又是真实时间里的十年之内,
19:25
CACA: In real真实 time, again, within a decade.
406
1153955
2210
19:28
Well, that would also be amazing惊人.
407
1156189
2799
唔,那同样是非常了不起的。
(笑声)
19:31
(Laughter笑声)
408
1159012
1150
但为什么呢?我是认真的,为什么?
19:32
Why, though虽然? Seriously认真地, why?
409
1160186
2515
我的意思是,在你的公司里,
这就是官方声明的义务。
19:34
I mean, you've got a company公司
where this is the official官方 stated声明 mission任务.
410
1162725
3754
是不是每个人都参与了那个任务,
19:38
Has everyone大家 actually其实
bought into that mission任务,
411
1166503
2507
考虑到,我是说,
有很多人认为,
19:41
given特定 that, I mean,
there's a lot of people around
412
1169034
2692
拜托,你有这么多天赋,
19:43
who think, come on,
you've got so much talent天赋,
413
1171750
2158
如此多的技术能力。
19:45
so much technology技术 capability能力.
414
1173932
1697
地球上有那么多东西需要紧急关注。
19:47
There are so many许多 things on earth地球
that need urgent紧急 attention注意.
415
1175653
3311
你为什么要逃去另一个星球呢?
19:50
Why would you have this escape逃逸 trip
off to another另一个 planet行星?
416
1178988
2945
(掌声)
19:53
(Applause掌声)
417
1181957
1635
格:我很高兴你问了这个问题,
19:55
GSGS: So I am glad高兴 you asked that,
418
1183616
1680
不过我想,我们应该
拓展一下我们的思维。
19:57
but I think we need
to expand扩大 our minds头脑 a little bit.
419
1185320
2644
在地球上有很多可以做的事情,
19:59
There are plenty丰富 of things to do on earth地球,
420
1187988
2079
不过有很多公司都在这方面努力。
20:02
but there are lots of companies公司
working加工 on that.
421
1190091
2571
我想我们正在做我们可能做的
最重要的东西,
20:04
I think we're working加工 on one of
the most important重要 things we possibly或者 can,
422
1192686
4295
而这便是,找到另一个
可供人类生存并繁荣的居所。
20:09
and that's to find another另一个 place地点
for humans人类 to live生活 and survive生存 and thrive兴旺.
423
1197005
4727
如果在地球上发生了什么,
20:13
If something happened发生 on earth地球,
424
1201756
3309
人类需要找到别的地方生活。
20:17
you need humans人类 living活的 somewhere某处 else其他.
425
1205089
2095
20:20
(Applause掌声)
426
1208896
1772
(掌声)
这减少了人类的基本风险。
20:22
It's the fundamental基本的 risk风险 reduction减少
for the human人的 species种类.
427
1210692
2757
这并不是说我们会停止
20:25
And this does not subvert颠覆
428
1213473
2223
让地球变得更好,更好的照顾它,
20:27
making制造 our planet行星 here better
and doing a better job工作 taking服用 care关心 of it,
429
1215720
4809
但我想你需要多种生存的途径,
20:32
but I think you need
multiple paths路径 to survival生存,
430
1220553
3110
而这是其中一种。
20:35
and this is one of them.
431
1223687
2143
而让我们不要谈论令人沮丧的方面,
20:37
And let's not talk about the downer唐纳 piece,
432
1225854
2099
比如,你去火星来确保
所有地球人都不会死。
20:39
like, you go to Mars火星 to make sure
all earthlings地球人 don't die.
433
1227977
3388
事实上,这很糟糕,这是做这件事
的一个非常糟糕的理由。
20:43
That's terrible可怕, actually其实,
that's a terrible可怕 reason原因 to go do it.
434
1231389
3650
从根本上说,
这是另一个值得探索的地方,
20:47
Fundamentally从根本上,
it's another另一个 place地点 to explore探索,
435
1235063
2928
这就是为什么人类和动物不同,
20:50
and that's what makes品牌 humans人类
different不同 from animals动物,
436
1238015
3398
这是我们的探索感,惊奇感,
20:53
it's our sense of exploration勘探
and sense of wonderment惊愕
437
1241437
2477
20:55
and learning学习 something new.
438
1243938
1377
和学习新东西的感觉。
然后我还要说,
20:57
And then I also have to say,
439
1245339
2515
这是我们迈向其他太阳系的第一步,
20:59
this is the first step
in us moving移动 to other solar太阳能 systems系统
440
1247878
3841
21:03
and potentially可能 other galaxies星系,
441
1251743
1584
或许甚至是其他星系,
而我想这是唯一一次
我的愿景超过了埃隆的,
21:05
and I think this is the only time
I ever out-vision外视 Elon伊隆,
442
1253351
3145
因为我想见到
其他太阳系里的其他人。
21:08
because I want to meet遇到 other people
in other solar太阳能 systems系统.
443
1256520
2849
火星还不错,但它是个
需要修缮的星球。
21:11
Mars火星 is fine, but it is
a fixer-upper固定器,上 planet行星.
444
1259393
2269
要想让它适合居住,
还有很多工作要做。
21:13
There's work to do there
to make it habitable可居住.
445
1261686
2184
21:15
(Laughter笑声)
446
1263894
1001
(笑声)
21:16
I want to find people,
or whatever随你 they call themselves他们自己,
447
1264919
2987
我想在另一个太阳系里找到人类,
或者任何他们自称的东西。
21:19
in another另一个 solar太阳能 system系统.
448
1267930
1619
克:这是个很大的愿景。
21:21
CACA: That is a big vision视力.
449
1269573
2228
谢谢你,格温·肖特维尔。
21:23
Gwynne格温 ShotwellShotwell, thank you.
450
1271825
1770
你有着世界上
最令人惊叹的工作之一。
21:25
You have one of the most
amazing惊人 jobs工作 on the planet行星.
451
1273619
2430
格:非常感谢。谢谢你,克里斯。
21:28
GSGS: Thank you very much. Thanks谢谢, Chris克里斯.
452
1276073
2334
Translated by Anney Ye
Reviewed by Qiuyue Zhang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Gwynne Shotwell - Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations.

Why you should listen

Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as vice president of business development and built the Falcon vehicle family manifest to more than 70 launches, representing more than $10 billion in business. Shotwell is a member of the SpaceX Board of Directors.
 
Prior to joining SpaceX, Shotwell spent more than 10 years at the Aerospace Corporation, holding positions in space systems engineering and technology and project management. Shotwell was subsequently recruited to be director of Microcosm's space systems division, managing space system technologies, serving on the executive committee and directing corporate business development.
 
In 2014, Shotwell was appointed to the United States Export Import Bank's Advisory Committee and the Federal Aviation Administration’s Management Advisory Council. She has been awarded the World Technology Award for Individual Achievement in Space, has been inducted into the Women In Technology International Hall of Fame and was elected to the honorable grade of Fellow with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
 
SpaceX supports science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) programs locally as well as national engineering programs and competitions. Shotwell has helped raise over $1.4 million for STEM education programs reaching thousands of students nationwide.
Shotwell received, with honors, her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Northwestern University in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics, and she serves as both a University Trustee and a member of the Advisory Council for Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. She has authored dozens of papers on a variety of space-related subjects.

More profile about the speaker
Gwynne Shotwell | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com

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