ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Gwynne Shotwell - Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations.

Why you should listen

Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as vice president of business development and built the Falcon vehicle family manifest to more than 70 launches, representing more than $10 billion in business. Shotwell is a member of the SpaceX Board of Directors.
 
Prior to joining SpaceX, Shotwell spent more than 10 years at the Aerospace Corporation, holding positions in space systems engineering and technology and project management. Shotwell was subsequently recruited to be director of Microcosm's space systems division, managing space system technologies, serving on the executive committee and directing corporate business development.
 
In 2014, Shotwell was appointed to the United States Export Import Bank's Advisory Committee and the Federal Aviation Administration’s Management Advisory Council. She has been awarded the World Technology Award for Individual Achievement in Space, has been inducted into the Women In Technology International Hall of Fame and was elected to the honorable grade of Fellow with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
 
SpaceX supports science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) programs locally as well as national engineering programs and competitions. Shotwell has helped raise over $1.4 million for STEM education programs reaching thousands of students nationwide.
Shotwell received, with honors, her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Northwestern University in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics, and she serves as both a University Trustee and a member of the Advisory Council for Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. She has authored dozens of papers on a variety of space-related subjects.

More profile about the speaker
Gwynne Shotwell | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2018

Gwynne Shotwell: SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes

格威妮 · 紹特韋爾: SpaceX 計畫飛半小時就把你送到地球的另一端

Filmed:
2,933,173 views

SpaceX 在做什麼?工程師格威妮 · 紹特韋爾,曾是伊隆 · 馬斯克的先鋒太空公司的七號員工,現在已是該公司的總裁。在這場與 TED 策展人克里斯 · 安德森的談話中,她討論了 SpaceX 打算讓人類進入軌道的計畫,以及該組織的下一個大計畫:BFR。設計這台新的巨型火箭是要帶人類上火星,潛在的用途是為地球人提供太空旅行。
- Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations. Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:14
Chris克裡斯 Anderson安德森: So two months個月 ago,
something crazy happened發生.
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克里斯 · 安德森(克):兩個月前,
發生了一件很瘋狂的事。
00:17
Can you talk us through通過 this, because
this caught抓住 so many許多 people's人們 attention注意?
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你能否和我們談談這件事,
因為它引起了好多人的注意?
00:21
Gwynne格溫 ShotwellShotwell: I'll stay quiet安靜
for the beginning開始,
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格威妮 · 紹特韋爾(格):
我還是先保持安靜,
然後我再開始談。
00:23
and then I'll start開始 talking.
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00:25
(Video視頻) Voices聲音: Five, four,
three, two, one.
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(影片)聲音:
五、四 、三、二、一。
00:29
(Cheering打氣)
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(歡呼)
00:31
Woman女人: Liftoff升空. Go Falcon Heavy.
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女子:發射。衝啊,
獵鷹重型運載火箭。
00:34
GSGS: So this was such這樣
an important重要 moment時刻 for SpaceXSpaceX公司.
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格:對於 SpaceX,
這是個非常重要的時刻。
00:38
With the Falcon 9
and now the Falcon Heavy,
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原是獵鷹九號,
現在是獵鷹重型運載火箭,
00:40
we can launch發射 into orbit軌道
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有了它,我們能把任何以前
00:43
any payload有效載荷 that has previously先前
been conceived設想 or is conceived設想 right now.
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曾構想過或現在正在構想的
裝載量給發射到軌道上,
00:48
We've我們已經 got a couple一對 of launches發布會
of Falcon Heavy later後來 this year,
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今年下半年,我們要發射
獵鷹重型運載火箭好幾次,
00:51
so this had to go right.
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所以這不能失誤。
00:53
It was the first time we flew it,
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這是我們第一次讓它升空,
00:55
and the star of the show顯示, of course課程,
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當然,還有這場秀的明星,
00:57
brother哥哥 and sister妹妹 side boosters助推器 landing降落.
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兩側推進器的著陸。
01:00
I was excited興奮.
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我很興奮。
01:01
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:02
Thanking感謝 my team球隊.
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感謝我的團隊。
01:04
By the way, there's maybe
a thousand people
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順道一提,在那裡,
我身邊可能站有一千人。
01:06
standing常設 around me right there.
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01:08
And Starman外星人.
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還有星男(太空駕駛員模型)。
01:10
Starman外星人 did not steal the show顯示, though雖然 --
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不過,星男並未搶走目光──
01:12
the boosters助推器 did.
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是推進器搶走的。
01:13
CACA: (Laughter笑聲)
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克:(笑聲)
01:14
CACA: There had to be some payload有效載荷 --
why not put a Tesla特斯拉 into space空間?
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克:肯定是很了不起的裝載量──
為什麼不把一台特斯拉車送上太空?
01:17
GSGS: Exactly究竟. It was perfect完善.
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格:沒錯。它很完美。
01:19
CACA: Gwynne格溫, let's wind the clock時鐘 back.
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克:格威妮,咱們回顧一下。
01:22
I mean, how did you end結束 up an engineer工程師
and President主席 of SpaceXSpaceX公司?
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你是如何成為
SpaceX 的工程師和總裁?
01:26
Were you supernerdysupernerdy as a girl女孩?
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你小時候是超級書呆子嗎?
01:29
GSGS: I don't think I was nerdy書呆子,
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格:我不覺得我是書呆子,
01:30
but I was definitely無疑 doing the things
that the girls女孩 weren't doing.
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但我肯定做了其他女孩不做的事。
01:33
I asked my mom媽媽, who was an artist藝術家,
when I was in third第三 grade年級,
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我媽媽是位藝術家,
我三年級時請問她
01:37
how a car汽車 worked工作,
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汽車是怎麼運作的,
01:38
so she had no idea理念 so she gave me
a book, and I read it,
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她不知道答案,
所以她給了我一本書,我讀了。
01:41
and sure enough足夠, my first job工作
out of my mechanical機械 engineering工程 degree
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當然,在我拿到
機械工程學位之後的第一份工作,
01:46
was with Chrysler克萊斯勒 Motors汽車
in the automotive汽車 industry行業.
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就是在汽車業的克萊斯勒汽車公司。
01:49
But I actually其實 got into engineering工程
not because of that book
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但我會投入工程並不是因為那本書,
01:52
but because my mom媽媽 took me
to a Society社會 of Women婦女 Engineers工程師 event事件,
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而是因為我媽媽帶我去了
美國女工程師協會的一個活動,
01:55
and I fell下跌 in love with
the mechanical機械 engineer工程師 that spoke.
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我愛上了在演說的那位機械工程師。
01:58
She was doing really critical危急 work,
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她在做非常有關鍵性的工作,
02:00
and I loved喜愛 her suit適合.
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特別是我愛她的制服。
02:02
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:03
And that's what a 15-year-old-歲
girl女孩 connects所連接 with.
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那就是一個十五歲女孩所能想到的。
02:05
And I used to shy害羞 away
from telling告訴 that story故事,
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我以前會躲避,不願說那個故事,
02:08
but if that's what caused造成 me
to be an engineer工程師 --
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但如果那就是讓我
成為工程師的原因──
02:10
hey, I think we should talk about that.
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嘿,我想我應該要談談它。
02:12
CACA: Sixteen十六 years年份 ago, you became成為
employee僱員 number seven at SpaceXSpaceX公司,
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克:十六年前,你成為
SpaceX 的第七號員工,
02:18
and then over the next下一個 years年份,
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在接下來幾年,
02:20
you somehow不知何故 built內置 a multi-billion-dollar數十億美元
relationship關係 with NASANASA,
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你和美國太空總署(NASA)
建起了數十億美元的關係,
02:25
despite儘管 the fact事實 that SpaceX'sSpaceX公司
first three launches發布會 blew自爆 up.
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儘管 SpaceX 的
前三次發射都失敗了。
02:29
I mean, how on earth地球 did you do that?
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你到底是怎麼辦到的?
02:31
GSGS: So actually其實, selling銷售 rockets火箭
is all about relationships關係
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格:其實,要賣火箭,
重點就在於關係,
02:35
and making製造 a connection連接
with these customers顧客.
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要和客戶建立連結。
02:37
When you don't have a rocket火箭 to sell,
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當你沒有火箭可以賣的時候,
02:39
what's really important重要
is selling銷售 your team球隊,
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很重要的就是,要賣你的團隊,
02:41
selling銷售 the business商業 savvy精明 of your CEOCEO --
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賣你的執行長的商業頭腦,
02:44
that's not really hard
to sell these days --
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現今這並不難賣──
02:46
and basically基本上, making製造 sure
that any technical技術 issue問題 that they have
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基本上,要確保他們
若有任何技術問題
02:49
or any concern關心,
you can address地址 right away.
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或任何擔心的事,你都能立即處理。
02:51
So I think it was helpful有幫助
for me to be an engineer工程師.
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所以我想,我的工程師身份
是有幫助的。
02:55
I think it was helpful有幫助 to my role角色
of running賽跑 sales銷售 for Elon伊隆.
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我想,為伊隆(特斯拉汽車執行長)
做銷售的角色也有幫助。
02:58
CACA: And currently目前,
a big focus焦點 of the company公司
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克:目前,公司的一個主要焦點,
03:01
is, I guess猜測, kind of a race種族 with Boeing波音
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據我猜測,是和波音競爭,
03:03
to be the first to provide提供
the service服務 to NASANASA
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要搶先為美國太空總署提供
03:06
of actually其實 putting humans人類 into orbit軌道.
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真的將人類送入太空軌道中的服務。
03:12
Safety安全 considerations注意事項 obviously明顯
come to the fore前面, here.
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在這裡,很顯然
安全考量是很重要的。
03:15
How are you sleeping睡眠?
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你還能睡得好嗎?
03:18
GSGS: I actually其實 sleep睡覺 really well.
I'm a good sleeper軌枕, that's my best最好 thing.
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格:我其實睡得非常好。
我很貪睡,那是我最擅長的。
03:22
But I think the days leading領導 up
to our flying飛行 crew船員
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但我想,接下來的日子
對我們的飛行組員來說,
03:26
will probably大概 be a little sleepless無眠.
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將會是有點難入睡的。
03:28
But really, fundamentally從根本上,
safety安全 comes in the design設計
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但其實基本上,安全來自於設計,
03:32
of the system系統 that you're going
to fly people on,
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讓人飛行時所使用之系統的設計,
03:34
and so we've我們已經 been working加工 for years年份,
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我們已經投入數年的努力,
03:36
actually其實, almost幾乎 a decade,
on this technology技術.
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事實上,已投入這項技術將近十年。
03:38
We're taking服用 the Dragon cargo貨物 spaceship飛船
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我們用天龍號太空船(貨船),
03:41
and we're upgrading升級 it
to be able能夠 to carry攜帶 crew船員.
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我們將它升級,變成可以載人。
03:43
And as I said, we've我們已經 been
engineering工程 in these safety安全 systems系統
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如我先前所言,我們
一直在打造這些安全系統,
03:47
for quite相當 some time.
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已經花了不少時間。
03:49
CACA: So isn't it that there's one system系統
that actually其實 allows允許 instant瞬間 escape逃逸
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克:是不是有個系統,
在發生問題的時候能幫助快速逃脫?
03:53
if there's a problem問題.
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格:是的。它叫做發射逃脫系統。
03:55
GSGS: That's right. It's called
the launch發射 escape逃逸 system系統.
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克:我想我們有資料。
咱們來展示一下。
03:57
CACA: I think we have that. Let's show顯示 that.
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格:我們有段 2015 年
做測試的影片。
03:59
GSGS: We've我們已經 got a video視頻
of a test測試 that we ran in 2015.
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04:03
So this simulated模擬 having
a really bad day on the pad.
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這是模擬在發射臺上
出問題的狀況。
04:07
Basically基本上, you want the capsule膠囊
to get out of Dodge躲閃.
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基本上,你要讓太空艙閃躲。
04:09
You want it to get away from the rocket火箭
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你想要讓它遠離火箭,
04:11
that had a bad day right below下面 it.
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遠離在它下頭出了問題的火箭。
04:14
This is if there was an issue問題 on the pad.
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這是假設發射台出了問題。
04:16
We also will be doing
another另一個 demonstration示範 later後來 this year
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今年晚些時候我們
還會做另一項展示,
04:19
on if we have an issue問題
with the rocket火箭 during flight飛行.
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展示當火箭在飛行時
出問題要怎麼辦。
04:23
CACA: And those rockets火箭 have another另一個
potential潛在 function功能 as well, eventually終於.
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克:最終,那些火箭
也有另一個潛在功能。
04:27
GSGS: Yeah, so the launch發射 escape逃逸 system系統
for Dragon is pretty漂亮 unique獨特.
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格:是的,天龍號太空船的
發射逃脫系統相當獨特。
04:30
It's an integrated集成 launch發射 escape逃逸 system系統.
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它是個整合式發射逃脫系統。
基本上,它是推進器,
04:32
It's basically基本上 a pusher,
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04:33
so the propellant推進物 system系統 and the thrusters推進器
are integrated集成 into the capsule膠囊,
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推進燃料系統和火箭推進器
都被整合到太空艙上,
04:38
and so if it detects檢測 a rocket火箭 problem問題,
it pushes the capsule膠囊 away.
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如果它偵測到火箭發生問題,
它就會把太空艙推射出去。
04:42
Capsule膠囊 safety安全 systems系統 in the past過去
have been like tractor拖拉機 pullers車夫,
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過去,太空艙安全系統一直
都像是拖拉牽引機一樣,
04:46
and the reason原因 we didn't want to do that
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我們不想要這麼做的原因,
04:48
is that puller needs需求 to come off before
you can safely安然 reenter重新進入 that capsule膠囊,
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是因為要等拉具脫離之後,
你才能夠安全地重返太空艙,
04:51
so we wanted to eliminate消除, in design設計,
that possibility可能性 of failure失敗.
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我們想要在設計上
就除去那種失敗的可能性。
04:57
CACA: I mean, SpaceXSpaceX公司 has made製作
the regular定期 reusability可重用性 of rockets火箭
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克:我的意思是,SpaceX
已經讓火箭能夠重複利用,
05:01
seem似乎 almost幾乎 routine常規,
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這似乎成了一種慣例,
05:03
which哪一個 means手段 you've doneDONE something
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也就是說,你做了什麼,
05:05
that no national國民
space空間 program程序, for example,
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是沒有其他,比如國家太空計畫,
05:08
has been able能夠 to achieve實現.
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能夠達成的。
05:10
How was that possible可能?
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那怎麼有可能?
05:12
GSGS: I think there's a couple一對 of things --
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格:我認為有幾件事──
05:15
there's a million百萬 things, actually其實 --
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其實有一百萬件事──
05:17
that have allowed允許 SpaceXSpaceX公司 to be successful成功.
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才能讓 SpaceX 成功。
05:20
The first is that we're kind of standing常設
on the shoulders肩膀 of giants豪門. Right?
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第一件事是,我們算是
站在巨人的肩膀上,對吧?
05:23
We got to look at the rocket火箭 industry行業
and the developments發展 to date日期,
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我們能夠看到火箭產業
以及到目前為止的發展,
05:28
and we got to pick the best最好 ideas思路,
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我們能夠挑選最好的點子,
05:30
leverage槓桿作用 them.
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發揮它們。
05:32
We also didn't have technology技術
that we had to include包括
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我們也沒有需要將什麼技術納入
05:36
in our vehicle車輛 systems系統.
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我們的飛行器系統。
05:38
So we didn't have to design設計
around legacy遺產 components組件
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我們不需要用到殘留的元件
05:42
that maybe weren't the most reliable可靠
or were particularly尤其 expensive昂貴,
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或特別貴的元件來做設計,
05:45
so we really were able能夠 to let physics物理
drive駕駛 the design設計 of these systems系統.
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所以我們其實能讓物理
來引領這些系統的設計。
05:49
CACA: I mean, there are other programs程式
started開始 from scratch.
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克:我的意思是,
有些其他計畫是從零開始。
05:52
That last phrase短語 you said there,
you let physics物理 drive駕駛 the design設計,
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你剛剛說的最後一句話,
讓物理引領設計,
05:55
what's an example of that?
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可以舉個例子嗎?
05:57
GSGS: There's hundreds數以百計 of examples例子,
actually其實, of that,
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格:其實有幾百個例子可以舉,
06:01
but basically基本上, we got to construct構造
the vehicle車輛 design設計
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但基本上,我們的飛行器設計
06:05
from, really, a clean清潔 sheet of paper,
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是從一張白紙開始,
06:07
and we got to make decisions決定
that we wanted to make.
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我們得要做出我們想要做的決定。
06:11
The tank坦克 architecture建築 --
it's a common共同 dome拱頂 design設計.
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燃料箱的結構──
它是常見的半球形設計。
06:14
Basically基本上 it's like two beer啤酒 cans
stacked堆疊 together一起,
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基本上,它像是
兩個啤酒灌疊在一起,
06:16
one full充分 of liquid液體 oxygen,
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一個裝滿了液態氧,
06:18
one full充分 of RPRP,
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另一個裝滿了 RP(燃料),
06:20
and that basically基本上 saved保存 weight重量.
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基本上那就能減輕重量。
06:23
It allowed允許 us to basically基本上 take
more payload有效載荷 for the same相同 design設計.
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讓我們在設計不變的情況下
有更高的裝載量。
06:27
One of the other elements分子 of the vehicle車輛
that we're flying飛行 right now
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我們正在飛的太空船,
所用到的其他元素之一,
06:31
is we do use densified緻密
liquid液體 oxygen and densified緻密 RPRP,
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就是用更高濃度的液態氧和 RP,
06:34
so it's ultracold,
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所以是超冷的,
06:36
and it allows允許 you to pack
more propellent推進劑 into the vehicle車輛.
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讓你能在載具上放更多推進燃料。
06:40
It is doneDONE elsewhere別處,
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其他地方也做,
06:42
probably大概 not to the degree that we do it,
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可能沒有我們做得好,
06:44
but it adds增加 a lot
of margin餘量 to the vehicle車輛,
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但它讓載具多了很多空間,
06:46
which哪一個 obviously明顯 adds增加 reliability可靠性.
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顯然這就會增加可靠度。
06:48
CACA: Gwynne格溫, you became成為 President主席
of SpaceXSpaceX公司 10 years年份 ago, I think.
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克:格威妮,我想,你是在
十年前當上 SpaceX 的總裁。
06:53
What's it been like to work
so closely密切 with Elon伊隆 Musk?
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和伊隆 · 馬斯克(Elon Musk)合作
是什麼樣的感覺?
06:57
GSGS: So I love working加工 for Elon伊隆.
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格:我很愛為伊隆工作。
06:59
I've been doing it for 16 years年份
this year, actually其實.
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到今年,我其實已經做了 16 年了。
07:02
I don't think I'm dumb enough足夠
to do something for 16 years年份
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我想我應該沒有蠢到做不喜歡做的事
07:05
that I don't like doing.
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還能一直做 16 年。
07:07
He's funny滑稽
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他很有趣,
07:09
and fundamentally從根本上 without
him saying anything
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基本上,他不需要說任何話,
07:12
he drives驅動器 you to do your best最好 work.
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他就能驅使你去在工作上做到最好。
07:16
He doesn't have to say a word.
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他不用說任何話。
07:17
You just want to do great work.
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你就會想把工作做好。
07:20
CACA: You might威力 be the person
best最好 placed放置 to answer回答 this question,
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克:有個問題一直困擾我,
你可能是最適合回答的人,
07:23
which哪一個 has puzzled困惑 me,
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07:24
which哪一個 is to shed light
on this strange奇怪 unit單元 of time
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能不能解釋一下這個
很奇特的時間單位,
07:28
called "Elon伊隆 time."
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叫做「伊隆時間」。
07:30
For example, last year,
I asked Elon伊隆, you know,
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比如,去年我問伊隆,你知道的,
07:34
when Tesla特斯拉 would
auto-drive自動磁碟機 across橫過 America美國,
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問他何時特斯拉能在全美自動駕駛,
07:37
and he said by last December十二月,
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他說,去年 12 月,
07:39
which哪一個 is definitely無疑 true真正,
if you take Elon伊隆 time into account帳戶.
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若把伊隆時間納入考量的話,
這答案絕對是真的。
07:44
So what's the conversion轉變 ratio
between之間 Elon伊隆 time and real真實 time?
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所以,伊隆時間和真實時間
之間的轉換率是什麼?
07:48
(Laughter笑聲)
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1007
(笑聲)
07:49
GSGS: You put me
in a unique獨特 position位置, Chris克裡斯.
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格:你讓我處在一個
很獨特的立場,克里斯。
07:51
Thanks謝謝 for that.
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謝謝你這麼做。
07:53
There's no question that Elon伊隆
is very aggressive侵略性 on his timelines時間線,
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毫無疑問伊隆的時間表非常急進,
07:56
but frankly坦率地說, that drives驅動器 us
to do things better and faster更快.
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4533
但坦白說,那促使我們
把事情做得更好、更快。
08:01
I think all the time
and all the money in the world世界
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我想世界上所有的時間
和所有的金錢
08:03
does not yield產量 the best最好 solution,
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也無法換來最好的解決方案,
08:05
and so putting that pressure壓力 on the team球隊
to move移動 quickly很快 is really important重要.
167
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把那樣的壓力加在團隊身上,
讓步調加速,是相當重要的。
08:11
CACA: It feels感覺 like you play
kind of a key intermediary中介 role角色 here.
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克:感覺好像你在這裡是
扮演一種關鍵的中間角色。
08:14
I mean, he sets these crazy goals目標
that have their impact碰撞,
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我的意思是,他設下瘋狂的目標,
這些目標都有它們的影響,
08:19
but, in other circumstances情況,
might威力 blow打擊 up a team球隊
170
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但在其他情況下,
這可能會搞死一個團隊,
08:22
or set impossible不可能 expectations期望.
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2086
或是訂下不可能的期望。
08:24
It feels感覺 like you've found發現 a way
of saying, "Yes, Elon伊隆,"
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感覺起來,你好像找到一種
方式來說:「好的,伊隆。」
08:28
and then making製造 it happen發生
in a way that is acceptable接受
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接著,用能被接受的方式來實現它,
08:31
both to him and to your company公司,
to your employees僱員.
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他能接受,你的公司、
你的員工也能接受的方式。
08:34
GSGS: There is two really important重要
realizations變現 for that.
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格:有兩項非常重要的領悟。
08:37
First of all, when Elon伊隆 says something,
you have to pause暫停
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首先,當伊隆說了某些話時,
你得要停頓一下,
08:42
and not immediately立即 blurt脫口而出 out,
"Well, that's impossible不可能,"
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不能馬上衝口說出:「那不可能。」
08:46
or, "There's no way we're going
to do that. I don't know how."
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2965
或「我們不可能做到。
我不知道怎麼做。」
08:49
So you zip壓縮 it, and you think about it,
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1842
你閉上嘴巴,你開始思考它,
08:51
and you find ways方法 to get that doneDONE.
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然後你想辦法把它做到。
08:53
And the other thing I realized實現,
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我還領悟到另一件事,
08:56
and it made製作 my job工作 satisfaction滿意
substantially基本上 harder更難.
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它讓我對得到成就感變更困難。
08:59
So I always felt like my job工作
was to take these ideas思路
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我總是覺得我的工作是要把這些點子
09:04
and kind of turn them into company公司 goals目標,
make them achievable實現,
184
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轉換成公司的目標,
讓它們變成是可達成的,
09:07
and kind of roll the company公司 over
from this steep slope, get it comfortable自在.
185
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有點像是把在陡坡上的公司
翻個身,讓它舒服一點。
09:12
And I noticed注意到 every一切 time
I felt like we were there,
186
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我注意到,每次
當我覺得我們做到了,
09:15
we were rolling壓延 over,
people were getting得到 comfortable自在,
187
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我們在翻身,大家正要得到舒緩時,
09:18
Elon伊隆 would throw something out there,
188
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伊隆就會丟出些什麼來,
09:20
and all of a sudden突然, we're not comfortable自在
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突然間,我們就不舒服了,
09:22
and we're climbing攀登 that steep slope again.
190
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2317
我們又在爬那陡坡了。
09:24
But then once一旦 I realized實現
that that's his job工作,
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2626
但一旦我意識到,那就是他的工作,
09:27
and my job工作 is to get the company公司
close to comfortable自在
192
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3322
而我的工作就是
讓公司盡量接近舒服,
09:30
so he can push again
and put us back on that slope,
193
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2709
這樣他就能再次施壓,
把我們推回坡上,
09:33
then I started開始 liking喜歡 my job工作 a lot more,
194
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我就開始更喜歡我的工作了,
09:35
instead代替 of always being存在 frustrated受挫.
195
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2089
而不是總覺得很挫折。
09:37
CACA: So if I estimated預計
that the conversation會話 ratio
196
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3301
克:所以……如果我估計那轉換率,
09:41
for Elon伊隆 time to your time is about 2x,
197
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2293
從伊隆時間轉換到
你的時間,約是 2x,
09:43
am I a long way out there?
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2920
我有差得太遠嗎?
09:46
GSGS: That's not terrible可怕,
and you said it, I didn't.
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格:那不算糟,
而且是你說的,不是我。
09:48
(Laughter笑聲)
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1991
(笑聲)
09:50
CACA: You know, looking ahead,
201
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克:你知道的,向前看,
09:53
one huge巨大 initiative倡議
202
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一個很大的計畫,
09:54
SpaceXSpaceX公司 is believed相信 to be,
rumored傳聞 to be working加工 on,
203
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3006
謠言相信 SpaceX 正在進行
09:57
is a massive大規模的 network網絡 of literally按照字面
thousands數千 of low earth地球 orbit軌道 satellites衛星
204
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一個大型網路,連結
數以千計的低地面軌道衛星,
10:04
to provide提供 high-bandwidth高帶寬,
low-cost低成本 internet互聯網 connection連接
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來提供高頻寬低成本的網路連線,
10:07
to every一切 square廣場 foot腳丫子 of planet行星 earth地球.
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2365
提供到地球上的每一個角落。
10:10
Is there anything
you can tell us about this?
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2234
你能跟我們談談它嗎?
10:12
GSGS: We actually其實 don't chat very much
about this particular特定 project項目,
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4102
格:我們其實不太聊這個計畫,
10:16
not because we're hiding anything,
209
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1690
不是因為我們要隱藏什麼,
10:18
but this is probably大概
one of the most challenging具有挑戰性的
210
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2246
也許這不是最有挑戰性的計畫,
10:20
if not the most challenging具有挑戰性的
project項目 we've我們已經 undertaken開展.
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2538
但至少是我們做過
最有挑戰性的計畫之一。
10:23
No one has been successful成功
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1842
還沒有人成功過,
10:25
deploying部署 a huge巨大 constellation星座
for internet互聯網 broadband寬帶,
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3581
部署一個系統來做網路寬頻用,
10:28
or basically基本上 for satellite衛星 internet互聯網,
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2299
或基本上做衛星網路用,
10:30
and I don't think physics物理
is the difficulty困難 here.
215
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2615
我認為這裡的困難之處不在物理。
10:33
I think we can come up
with the right technology技術 solution,
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我認為我們能想出
正確的技術解決方案,
10:36
but we need to make a business商業 out of it,
217
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2260
但我們得要先把它變成生意,
10:38
and it'll它會 cost成本 the company公司
about 10 billion十億 dollars美元 or more
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3587
公司要花上一百億美元以上
10:42
to deploy部署 this system系統.
219
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1761
來部署這個系統。
10:44
And so we're marching行軍 steadily穩步 along沿
220
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4061
所以,我們穩穩地向前走,
10:48
but we're certainly當然
not claiming自稱 victory勝利 yet然而.
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2365
但我們肯定還沒有宣佈勝利。
10:50
CACA: I mean, the impact碰撞 of that,
obviously明顯, if that happened發生 to the world世界,
222
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3429
克:我是指,如果它真的
在這個世界上實現了,
10:54
of connectivity連接 everywhere到處,
would be pretty漂亮 radical激進,
223
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3388
無所不在的連結所帶來的
衝擊會是相當根本的,
10:57
and perhaps也許 mainly主要 for good --
224
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1493
也許主要都是好的──
10:59
I mean, it changes變化 a lot
if suddenly突然 everyone大家 can connect cheaply廉價地.
225
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3815
我是指,如果突然大家都有
便宜的連線,會帶來很大的改變。
11:02
GSGS: Yeah, there's no question
it'll它會 change更改 the world世界.
226
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2477
格:是的,毫無疑問,
它會改變世界。
11:05
CACA: How much of a worry擔心 is it,
227
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1848
克:擔心的程度有多高?
11:07
and how much of a drag拖動
on the planning規劃 is it,
228
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2183
計畫上有沒有什麽扯後腿的東西?
11:09
are concerns關注 just about space空間 junk破爛?
229
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1985
需要擔心的只有太空垃圾嗎?
11:11
People worry擔心 a lot about this.
230
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大家挺擔心這一點的。
11:12
This would a huge巨大 increase增加 in the total
number of satellites衛星 in orbit軌道.
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3343
在軌道上的衛星總數會大大增加。
11:16
Is that a concern關心?
232
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1151
需要操心這點嗎?
11:17
GSGS: So space空間 debris廢墟 is a concern關心,
there's no question --
233
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3681
格:太空殘骸是一個考量,
這點毫無疑問。
11:21
not because it's so likely容易 to happen發生,
234
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2515
並不是因為它可能會發生,
11:23
but the consequences後果 of it happening事件
are pretty漂亮 devastating破壞性的.
235
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3894
而是如果發生的話,
後果十分有破壞性。
11:27
You could basically基本上 spew
a bunch of particles粒子 in orbit軌道
236
675653
3766
可能會在軌道上噴放出一堆碎片,
11:31
that could take out that orbit軌道
from being存在 useful有用 for decades幾十年 or longer.
237
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5158
會讓那軌道至少十年不能用。
11:36
So as a matter of fact事實,
238
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1818
所以,事實上,
11:38
we are required需要 to bring帶來 down
our second第二 stage階段 after every一切 mission任務
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在每一次任務之後,
我們都必須把第二節帶下來,
11:42
so it doesn't end結束 up being存在
a rocket火箭 carcass胴體 orbiting軌道 earth地球.
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690370
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最後才不會變成火箭屍體
繞著地球轉。
11:46
So you really need to be
a good steward管家 of that.
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我們真的得要做好那方面的管理。
11:50
CACA: So despite儘管
the remarkable卓越 success成功 there
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克:儘管獵鷹重型運載火箭
11:54
of that Falcon Heavy rocket火箭,
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有很了不起的成功,
11:57
you're actually其實 not focusing調焦 on that
as your future未來 development發展 plan計劃.
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你們並沒有把它當作是
未來發展計畫的焦點。
12:01
You're doubling加倍 down
to a much bigger rocket火箭
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你們加倍投入在一台更大的火箭上,
12:04
called the BFRBFR,
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叫做 BFR,
12:05
which哪一個 stands站立 for ...
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這個縮寫代表的是……
12:07
GSGS: It's the Big Falcon Rocket火箭.
CACA: The Big Falcon Rocket火箭, that's right.
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格:大型獵鷹火箭。
克:大型獵鷹火箭,沒錯。
12:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:13
What's the business商業 logic邏輯 of doing this
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721553
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這麼做的商業邏輯是什麼?
12:16
when you invested投資 all that
in that incredible難以置信 technology技術,
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當你們已經投資了那麼多
在那項了不起的技術上,
12:19
and now you're just going
to something much bigger. Why?
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現在,你們就只打算
做個更大的東西。為什麼?
12:22
GSGS: Actually其實, we've我們已經 learned學到了 some lessons教訓
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格:其實我們學了一些教訓,
12:24
over the duration持續時間 where we've我們已經
been developing發展 these launch發射 systems系統.
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在我們開發這些
發射系統的時候學到的。
12:28
What we want to do is not introduce介紹
a new product產品 before we've我們已經 been able能夠
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當我們還無法說服客戶
他們應該要採用這新產品之前,
12:32
to convince說服 the customers顧客 that this
is the product產品 that they should move移動 to,
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我們不會想要推出它,
12:36
so we're working加工 on
the Big Falcon Rocket火箭 now,
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所以我們現在正努力投入 BFR,
12:39
but we're going to continue繼續
flying飛行 Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies重型戰車
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但我們也會持續飛獵鷹九號
和獵鷹重型運載火箭,
12:43
until直到 there is absolute絕對
widespread廣泛 acceptance驗收 of BFRBFR.
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751010
3071
直到確定 BFR 能被廣為接受。
12:46
But we are working加工 on it right now,
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但我們現在正在努力,
12:48
we're just not going to cancel取消
Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy
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只是我們不會取消飛獵鷹九號
和獵鷹重型運載火箭,
12:52
and just put in place地點 BFRBFR.
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而單單採用 BFR。
12:55
CACA: The logic邏輯 is that BFRBFR is what you need
to take humanity人性 to Mars火星?
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克:邏輯是,如果你們要把人
送上火星,需要的是 BFR?
12:59
GSGS: That's correct正確.
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格:沒錯。
13:00
CACA: But somehow不知何故, you've also found發現
other business商業 ideas思路 for this.
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768777
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克:但對此,你們也
找到了其他的商業點子。
13:04
GSGS: Yes. BFRBFR can take the satellites衛星
that we're currently目前 taking服用 to orbit軌道
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772911
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格:是的。BFR 能把
我們目前帶到軌道上的衛星
13:08
to many許多 orbits軌道.
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帶到許多軌道上。
13:09
It allows允許 for even a new class
of satellites衛星 to be delivered交付 to orbit軌道.
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777664
5325
它甚至能帶一種
新類型的衛星到軌道上。
13:15
Basically基本上, the width寬度, the diameter直徑
of the fairing整流罩 is eight meters,
269
783013
3626
基本上,整流罩的寬度、
直徑是八公尺,
13:18
so you can think about
what giant巨人 telescopes望遠鏡
270
786663
2349
所以,你可以想想,
在那整流罩裡,
13:21
you can put in that fairing整流罩,
in that cargo貨物 bay,
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在那貨倉中,可以放
多巨大的望遠鏡,
13:24
and see really incredible難以置信 things
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能看到多了不起的東西,
13:26
and discover發現 incredible難以置信 things in space空間.
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2269
在太空中發掘了不起的東西。
13:28
But then there are some
residual剩餘的 capabilities功能
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但我們從 BFR
13:31
that we have out of BFRBFR as well.
275
799098
2308
也得到一些剩餘能力。
13:33
CACA: A residual剩餘的 capability能力?
GSGS: It's a residual剩餘的 capability能力.
276
801430
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克:剩餘能力?
格:它是種剩餘能力。
13:36
CACA: Is that what you call this?
Talk about what the heck赫克 this is.
277
804226
3109
克:你是這麼稱呼它的?
談談它到底是什麼。
13:39
Oh wait a sec --
278
807360
1151
喔,等等──
格:那是獵鷹重型運載火箭。
順道一提,那是值得點出的。
13:40
GSGS: That's Falcon Heavy.
279
808535
1171
13:41
That's worth價值 pointing指點 out, by the way.
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13:43
What a beautiful美麗 rocket火箭,
281
811565
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很漂亮的火箭,
13:45
and that hangar機庫 could just fit適合
the Statue雕像 of Liberty自由 in it,
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而那機棚可以容納得下自由女神像,
13:49
so you get a sense of size尺寸
of that Falcon Heavy Rocket火箭.
283
817984
4396
這樣你就對獵鷹重型
運載火箭的大小有概念了。
13:54
CACA: And the fact事實 that
there are 27 engines引擎 there.
284
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克:那裡有 27 具引擎。
13:56
That's part部分 of the design設計 principle原理
285
824904
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那是設計原則的一部分,
13:58
that you, rather than just
inventing發明了 ever bigger rockets火箭,
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你不是去發明更大的火箭,
14:01
you team球隊 them up.
287
829848
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你讓它們協作。
14:03
GSGS: It's exactly究竟 this residual剩餘的 capability能力.
288
831014
2086
格:那就是剩餘能力。
14:05
We developed發達 the Merlin梅林 engine發動機
for the Falcon 1 launch發射 vehicle車輛.
289
833124
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我們為獵鷹一號發射載具
開發了梅林引擎。
14:08
We could have tossed that engine發動機
290
836166
1766
我們本來可以把那引擎丟掉,
14:09
and built內置 an entirely完全 new engine發動機
for the Falcon 9.
291
837956
2961
打造一具全新的引擎給獵鷹九號。
14:12
It would have been called
something different不同,
292
840941
2178
它就會有個不同的名字,
14:15
because Falcon 9 is nine Merlin梅林 engines引擎,
293
843143
1905
因為獵鷹九號就是九具梅林引擎,
14:17
but instead代替 of spending開支 a billion十億 dollars美元
on a brand new engine發動機,
294
845072
3039
但我們沒有花十億美元
來打造全新引擎,
14:20
we put nine of them together一起
on the back end結束 of Falcon 9.
295
848135
3186
我們把九具舊引擎
裝在獵鷹九號的後端。
14:23
Residual殘餘 capability能力:
glue three Falcon 9s together一起
296
851345
3080
剩餘能力:把三台
獵鷹九號黏在一起,
14:26
and you have the largest最大
operational操作 rocket火箭 flying飛行.
297
854449
3119
你就得到了世界上最大的
能運作飛行的火箭。
14:29
And so it was expensive昂貴 to do,
298
857592
1809
這麼做是很昂貴,
14:31
but it was a much more efficient高效 path路徑
than starting開始 from scratch.
299
859425
3226
但比起從零開始,
這種做法有效率得多。
14:34
CACA: And the BFRBFR is the equivalent當量
of how much bigger than that,
300
862675
3861
克:那麼 BFR 比那還要大多少?
14:38
in terms條款 of its power功率?
301
866560
1151
就動力上來說?
14:39
GSGS: BFRBFR is about, I believe,
two and half times the size尺寸 of this.
302
867735
3120
格:我認為,BFR 是它的 2.5 倍。
14:42
CACA: Right, and so that allows允許 you --
303
870879
1977
克:好。所以那就讓你能──
14:44
I mean, I still don't really believe
this video視頻 that we're about to play here.
304
872880
3687
我是指,我仍然不敢置信
我們接下來要放的這支影片。
14:48
What on earth地球 is this?
305
876591
1851
這到底是什麼?
14:50
GSGS: So it currently目前 is on earth地球,
306
878863
2859
格:它目前還在地球上,
14:53
but this is basically基本上
space空間 travel旅行 for earthlings地球人.
307
881746
3132
但基本上,這是
地球人的太空飛船旅行。
14:56
I can't wait for this residual剩餘的 capability能力.
308
884903
2221
我等不及這項剩餘能力了。
14:59
Basically基本上, what we're going to do
is we're going to fly BFRBFR like an aircraft飛機
309
887148
4656
基本上,我們打算要把 BFR
當成飛機來飛,
15:03
and do point-to-point點對點 travel旅行 on earth地球,
310
891828
2586
在地球上做點到點的旅行,
15:06
so you can take off
from New York紐約 City or Vancouver溫哥華
311
894438
4027
你可以從紐約市或溫哥華起飛,
15:10
and fly halfway across橫過 the globe地球.
312
898489
2038
飛到地球的另一端。
15:12
You'll你會 be on the BFRBFR for roughly大致
half an hour小時 or 40 minutes分鐘,
313
900551
4015
你待在 BFR 上的時間
大約是30~40 分鐘,
15:16
and the longest最長 part部分 --
yeah, it's so awesome真棒.
314
904590
2444
而最長的部分──是啊,很棒。
15:19
(Applause掌聲)
315
907058
1092
(掌聲)
15:20
The longest最長 part部分 of that flight飛行
is actually其實 the boat out and back.
316
908174
4193
那段飛行最長的部分,
其實是進出搭小船的時間。
15:24
(Laughter笑聲)
317
912391
1001
(笑聲)
15:25
CACA: I mean. Gwynne格溫, come on,
this is awesome真棒, but it's crazy, right?
318
913416
3402
克:我是指,格威妮,拜託,
這很棒,但這很瘋狂,對吧?
15:28
This is never going to actually其實 happen發生.
319
916842
2850
這永遠不會真的發生。
15:31
GSGS: Oh no, it's definitely無疑
going to happen發生.
320
919716
2019
格:喔,不,它絕對會發生。
15:33
This is definitely無疑 going to happen發生.
321
921759
1667
這絕對會發生。
15:35
CACA: How?
322
923450
1151
克:如何做?
15:36
(Applause掌聲)
323
924625
4134
(掌聲)
15:40
So first of all, countries國家 are going
to accept接受 this incoming missile導彈 --
324
928783
4256
首先,各國家要能接受
這即將到來的飛彈──
15:45
(Laughter笑聲)
325
933063
1001
(笑聲)
15:46
GSGS: Chris克裡斯, so can you imagine想像
us trying to convince說服 a federal聯邦 range範圍,
326
934088
4341
格:克里斯,你能否想像
我們試圖說服一個聯邦試射場,
15:50
Air空氣 Force bases基地 to take the incomers移民?
327
938453
2143
空軍基地,願意接收來者?
15:52
Because we're doing it now,
regularly經常, right?
328
940620
2180
因為我們現在就經常在做,對吧?
15:54
We're bringing使 the first stages階段 back,
329
942824
1801
我們把第一節帶回來,
我們讓它們降著在
空軍基地的聯邦地產上。
15:56
and we're landing降落 them
on federal聯邦 property屬性 on an Air空氣 Force base基礎.
330
944649
3007
所以我在想,在城市外圍,
15:59
So I think doing it, I don't know,
331
947680
1745
16:01
10 kilometers公里 out from a city, maybe
it's only five kilometers公里 out from a city.
332
949449
3729
我不知道,也許十公里或
五公里的地方來做這件事。
克:有多少乘客有可能可以負擔得起
16:05
CACA: So how many許多 passengers乘客
can possibly或者 afford給予 the fortune幸運
333
953202
2815
搭太空船飛行?
16:08
of flying飛行 by space空間?
334
956041
1019
16:09
GSGS: So the first BFRBFR is going to have
roughly大致 a hundred passengers乘客.
335
957132
5008
格:第一台 BFR 將會有
大約一百名乘客。
16:14
And let's talk a little bit
about the business商業.
336
962165
2198
讓我們談談生意的部分。
16:16
Everyone大家 thinks rockets火箭
are really expensive昂貴,
337
964387
2142
大家都認為火箭非常昂貴,
16:18
and to a large degree they are,
338
966554
1539
的確可以說是如此,
我們怎麼可能和
航空公司的機票競爭?
16:20
and how could we possibly或者 compete競爭
with airline航空公司 tickets門票 here?
339
968463
2810
16:23
But if you think about it,
if I can do this trip
340
971298
2315
但試想一下,若我做這趟旅程
16:25
in half an hour小時 to an hour小時,
341
973638
2929
只要半小時到一小時,
16:28
I can do dozens許多 of these a day, right?
342
976591
2956
我一天就能飛好多趟,對吧?
16:31
And yet然而, a long-haul長途 aircraft飛機
can only make one of those flights航班 a day.
343
979571
3622
然而,長途飛機一天只能
飛這些航程的其中一趟。
16:35
So even if my rocket火箭
was slightly more expensive昂貴
344
983217
2309
所以,即使我的火箭稍微貴一點,
16:37
and the fuel汽油 is
a little bit more expensive昂貴,
345
985550
2036
且燃料也稍微貴一點,
16:39
I can run 10x at least最小
what they're running賽跑 in a day,
346
987611
2900
我一天能運行的航程數
至少是他們的 10 倍,
16:42
and really make the revenue收入
that I need to out of that system系統.
347
990536
3491
就能從那系統賺到足夠的利潤。
16:46
CACA: So you really believe this is going
to be deployed部署 at some point
348
994051
3274
克:所以,你真心相信
在驚人未來的某個時點,
這方案會被實行。何時?
16:49
in our amazing驚人 future未來. When?
349
997349
1669
16:51
GSGS: Within a decade, for sure.
350
999042
1843
格:十年內,肯定的。
16:53
CACA: And this is Gwynne格溫 time or Elon伊隆 time?
351
1001495
2618
克:這是格威妮時間還是伊隆時間?
16:56
GSGS: That's Gwynne格溫 time.
I'm sure Elon伊隆 will want us to go faster更快.
352
1004137
3072
格:格威妮時間。我相信
伊隆會要我們更快完成。
16:59
(Laughter笑聲)
353
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1245
(笑聲)
17:01
CACA: OK, that's certainly當然 amazing驚人.
354
1009056
4111
克:好,那的確是很了不起。
17:05
(Laughter笑聲)
355
1013191
1621
(笑聲)
17:06
GSGS: I'm personally親自 invested投資 in this one,
because I travel旅行 a lot
356
1014836
3044
格:我個人有投資這一項計畫,
因為我很常旅行,
17:09
and I do not love to travel旅行,
357
1017904
1368
而我不愛旅行,
17:11
and I would love to get to see
my customers顧客 in Riyadh利雅得,
358
1019296
3587
我會很樂意去見我在利雅德的客戶
17:14
leave離開 in the morning早上
and be back in time to make dinner晚餐.
359
1022907
3218
早上出門,晚上就能回家做晚餐。
17:18
CACA: So we're going to test測試 this out.
360
1026149
1769
克:所以我們要充分測試它。
17:19
So within 10 years年份,
an economy經濟 price價錢 ticket,
361
1027942
2770
所以,在十年內,會有經濟艙價格,
17:22
or, like, a couple一對 thousand dollars美元
per person to fly New York紐約 to Shanghai上海.
362
1030736
5650
或約每人幾千塊美元的票,
從紐約飛到上海。
17:28
GSGS: Yeah, I think it'll它會 be between之間
economy經濟 and business商業,
363
1036410
3110
格:是的,我想票價
會在經濟艙和商務艙之間,
17:31
but you do it in an hour小時.
364
1039544
1398
但航程只要一小時。
17:32
CACA: Yeah, well, OK,
that is definitely無疑 something.
365
1040966
2777
克:是啊,好,
那肯定是值得重視的。
17:35
(Laughter笑聲)
366
1043767
1001
(笑聲)
17:36
And meanwhile與此同時, the other use
of BFRBFR is being存在 developed發達
367
1044792
3339
同時,也有在發展
BFR 的另一種用途,
17:40
to go a little bit further進一步 than Shanghai上海.
368
1048155
3189
到比上海更遠一點點的地方。
17:43
Talk about this.
369
1051368
1242
談談這點吧。
17:44
You guys have actually其實 developed發達
quite相當 a detailed詳細, sort分類 of, picture圖片
370
1052634
3993
你們已經發展出十分詳細的想像,
17:48
of how humans人類 might威力 fly to Mars火星,
371
1056651
3420
想像出人類要如何飛到火星,
17:52
and what that would look like.
372
1060095
1592
以及那會是什麼樣子。
17:53
GSGS: Yeah. So we've我們已經 got a video視頻,
this is a cropped裁剪 video視頻
373
1061711
2572
格:是的。我們有支影片,它是我們
17:56
from others其他 we've我們已經 shown顯示, and then
there's a couple一對 of new bits to it.
374
1064307
3309
已經看過的影片剪輯起來,
再加上一些新東西。
17:59
But basically基本上, you're going
to lift電梯 off from a pad,
375
1067640
3318
基本上,你會從發射台起飛,
18:02
you've got a booster加速器 as well as the BFS高爐,
the Big Falcon Spaceship飛船.
376
1070982
3941
你會有推進器以及 BFS,
即大型獵鷹太空船。
18:07
It's going to take off.
377
1075535
1182
它會起飛。
18:11
The booster加速器 is going to drop下降
the spaceship飛船 off in orbit軌道,
378
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3391
推進器會把太空船丟在軌道上,
18:14
low earth地球 orbit軌道,
379
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1150
低地面軌道,
18:16
and then return返回 just like
we're returning回國 boosters助推器 right now.
380
1084139
3206
它會返回,就像我們現在
讓推進器返回地球一樣。
18:19
So it sounds聲音 incredible難以置信,
but we're working加工 on the pieces,
381
1087369
2722
聽起來很不可思議,
但我們在努力做每一部分,
你能看到我們完成這些部分。
18:22
and you can see us achieve實現 these pieces.
382
1090115
1968
18:24
So booster加速器 comes back.
383
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1203
推進器回來了。
18:25
The new thing here
384
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1151
這裡有個新發明,
18:26
is that we're going to actually其實 land土地
on the pad that we launched推出 from.
385
1094509
3319
那就是,我們要讓它降落在
它起飛的那個發射台上。
目前,我們是降落在
不同的發射台或是船上。
18:29
Currently目前, we land土地 on a separate分離 pad,
or we land土地 out on a boat.
386
1097852
2968
18:33
Fast快速, quick connect.
387
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1673
快速,馬上連結。
18:35
You take a cargo貨物 ship full充分 of fuel汽油,
388
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2669
你可以找一台裝滿燃料的貨船,
18:37
or a fuel汽油 depot倉庫,
389
1105780
1173
或是一個燃料倉庫,
18:38
put it on that booster加速器, get that in orbit軌道,
390
1106977
2474
把它放在推進器上,讓它進入軌道,
18:41
do a docking對接 maneuver演習,
refuel加油 the spaceship飛船,
391
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2924
想個方式來做對接,
就能為太空船補給燃料,
18:45
and head on to your destination目的地,
392
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1874
然後前往你的目的地,
18:47
and this one is Mars火星.
393
1115877
2113
這台的目的地是火星。
18:51
CACA: So, like, a hundred people
go to Mars火星 at one time,
394
1119131
5301
克:所以就像是,
一次一百個人上火星,
18:56
taking服用, what, six months個月? Two months個月?
395
1124456
2690
要花多久?六個月?兩個月?
18:59
GSGS: It ends結束 up depending根據
on how big the rocket火箭 is.
396
1127170
2626
格:那最終還是要看火箭有多大。
19:01
I think this first version,
and we'll continue繼續 to make
397
1129820
3182
我想如果用第一版,我們會持續
19:05
even bigger BFRsBFRs,
398
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2158
製造更大的 BFR,
19:07
I think it's a three-month三個月 trip.
399
1135208
2031
第一版到火星大概要三個月。
19:09
Right now, the average平均 is six to eight,
400
1137263
1915
目前,平均值是六到八個月,
19:11
but we're going to try to do it faster更快.
401
1139202
1962
但我們在試著讓它更快一點。
19:13
CACA: When do you believe SpaceXSpaceX公司
will land土地 the first human人的 on Mars火星?
402
1141188
4455
克:你認為 SpaceX 何時
會讓第一個人登上火星?
19:17
GSGS: It's a very similar類似 time frame
from the point-to-point點對點.
403
1145667
2762
格:和點到點計畫的
時間範圍差不多。
19:20
It's the same相同 capability能力.
404
1148453
1245
用的是同樣的能力。
19:21
It will be within a decade --
not this decade.
405
1149722
4209
會在十年之內──不是這十年。
19:25
CACA: In real真實 time, again, within a decade.
406
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2210
克:真實時間,在十年內。
19:28
Well, that would also be amazing驚人.
407
1156189
2799
嗯,那也是很了不起的。
19:31
(Laughter笑聲)
408
1159012
1150
(笑聲)
19:32
Why, though雖然? Seriously認真地, why?
409
1160186
2515
不過,為什麼?認真的,為什麼?
19:34
I mean, you've got a company公司
where this is the official官方 stated聲明 mission任務.
410
1162725
3754
我是指,你有間公司,
而這是官方聲明的任務。
19:38
Has everyone大家 actually其實
bought into that mission任務,
411
1166503
2507
對這個任務,大家真的都買帳嗎?
19:41
given特定 that, I mean,
there's a lot of people around
412
1169034
2692
我的意思是,畢竟身邊有很多人
19:43
who think, come on,
you've got so much talent天賦,
413
1171750
2158
會認為,拜託,你這麼有才華,
19:45
so much technology技術 capability能力.
414
1173932
1697
技術能力又如此強大。
19:47
There are so many許多 things on earth地球
that need urgent緊急 attention注意.
415
1175653
3311
地球上有好多事物迫切需要被關注。
19:50
Why would you have this escape逃逸 trip
off to another另一個 planet行星?
416
1178988
2945
為什麼你要做這種
逃向另一個星球的旅行?
19:53
(Applause掌聲)
417
1181957
1635
(掌聲)
19:55
GSGS: So I am glad高興 you asked that,
418
1183616
1680
格:我很高興你問了,
19:57
but I think we need
to expand擴大 our minds頭腦 a little bit.
419
1185320
2644
但我想我們得再把心智擴展一些。
19:59
There are plenty豐富 of things to do on earth地球,
420
1187988
2079
地球上有很多事情要做,
20:02
but there are lots of companies公司
working加工 on that.
421
1190091
2571
但有許多公司投入在那些事情上。
20:04
I think we're working加工 on one of
the most important重要 things we possibly或者 can,
422
1192686
4295
我想,我們是致力於我們
能做到最重要的事情之一,
20:09
and that's to find another另一個 place地點
for humans人類 to live生活 and survive生存 and thrive興旺.
423
1197005
4727
也就是找到另一個地方
給人類居住、生存,和茁壯。
20:13
If something happened發生 on earth地球,
424
1201756
3309
如果地球發生了什麼事,
20:17
you need humans人類 living活的 somewhere某處 else其他.
425
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2095
你會需要讓人類住在其他地方。
20:20
(Applause掌聲)
426
1208896
1772
(掌聲)
20:22
It's the fundamental基本的 risk風險 reduction減少
for the human人的 species種類.
427
1210692
2757
這是為人類降低根本性的風險。
20:25
And this does not subvert顛覆
428
1213473
2223
這並不會顛覆
20:27
making製造 our planet行星 here better
and doing a better job工作 taking服用 care關心 of it,
429
1215720
4809
讓地球更好,把地球照顧得更好,
20:32
but I think you need
multiple paths路徑 to survival生存,
430
1220553
3110
但我認為,你要有多種生存途徑,
20:35
and this is one of them.
431
1223687
2143
這就是其中一條途徑。
20:37
And let's not talk about the downer唐納 piece,
432
1225854
2099
我們不要談掃興的部分,
20:39
like, you go to Mars火星 to make sure
all earthlings地球人 don't die.
433
1227977
3388
比如,你到火星是要
確保人類不會滅絕。
20:43
That's terrible可怕, actually其實,
that's a terrible可怕 reason原因 to go do it.
434
1231389
3650
那很糟糕,以這個理由
來做這件事,是很糟糕的。
20:47
Fundamentally從根本上,
it's another另一個 place地點 to explore探索,
435
1235063
2928
基本上,就是去探索另一個地方,
20:50
and that's what makes品牌 humans人類
different不同 from animals動物,
436
1238015
3398
那就是人類和動物的差別,
20:53
it's our sense of exploration勘探
and sense of wonderment驚愕
437
1241437
2477
我們有探索感和驚奇感,
20:55
and learning學習 something new.
438
1243938
1377
會去學習新事物。
20:57
And then I also have to say,
439
1245339
2515
我也得要說,
20:59
this is the first step
in us moving移動 to other solar太陽能 systems系統
440
1247878
3841
這只是我們的第一步,
朝其他太陽系邁進,
21:03
and potentially可能 other galaxies星系,
441
1251743
1584
甚至其他銀河系邁進,
21:05
and I think this is the only time
I ever out-vision外視 Elon伊隆,
442
1253351
3145
我想只有這麼一次,
我的遠景比伊隆還遠,
21:08
because I want to meet遇到 other people
in other solar太陽能 systems系統.
443
1256520
2849
因為我想要見見
其他太陽系的其他人。
21:11
Mars火星 is fine, but it is
a fixer-upper固定器,上 planet行星.
444
1259393
2269
火星很好,但它需要整修才能住人。
21:13
There's work to do there
to make it habitable可居住.
445
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2184
還要花些功夫才能讓它適合居住。
21:15
(Laughter笑聲)
446
1263894
1001
(笑聲)
21:16
I want to find people,
or whatever隨你 they call themselves他們自己,
447
1264919
2987
我想要找到其他太陽系中的「人」,
21:19
in another另一個 solar太陽能 system系統.
448
1267930
1619
或看他們如何自稱。
21:21
CACA: That is a big vision視力.
449
1269573
2228
克:那是好大的遠景。
21:23
Gwynne格溫 ShotwellShotwell, thank you.
450
1271825
1770
格威妮紹特韋爾,謝謝你。
21:25
You have one of the most
amazing驚人 jobs工作 on the planet行星.
451
1273619
2430
你有地球上最了不起的工作之一。
21:28
GSGS: Thank you very much. Thanks謝謝, Chris克裡斯.
452
1276073
2334
格:非常謝謝你。謝謝,克里斯。
Translated by Lilian Chiu
Reviewed by Yanyan Hong

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ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Gwynne Shotwell - Space leader
As president and COO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell is responsible for day-to-day operations and for managing all customer and strategic relations.

Why you should listen

Gwynne Shotwell joined SpaceX in 2002 as vice president of business development and built the Falcon vehicle family manifest to more than 70 launches, representing more than $10 billion in business. Shotwell is a member of the SpaceX Board of Directors.
 
Prior to joining SpaceX, Shotwell spent more than 10 years at the Aerospace Corporation, holding positions in space systems engineering and technology and project management. Shotwell was subsequently recruited to be director of Microcosm's space systems division, managing space system technologies, serving on the executive committee and directing corporate business development.
 
In 2014, Shotwell was appointed to the United States Export Import Bank's Advisory Committee and the Federal Aviation Administration’s Management Advisory Council. She has been awarded the World Technology Award for Individual Achievement in Space, has been inducted into the Women In Technology International Hall of Fame and was elected to the honorable grade of Fellow with the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
 
SpaceX supports science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) programs locally as well as national engineering programs and competitions. Shotwell has helped raise over $1.4 million for STEM education programs reaching thousands of students nationwide.
Shotwell received, with honors, her bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Northwestern University in mechanical engineering and applied mathematics, and she serves as both a University Trustee and a member of the Advisory Council for Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. She has authored dozens of papers on a variety of space-related subjects.

More profile about the speaker
Gwynne Shotwell | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com