TEDGlobal 2013
Trita Parsi: Iran and Israel: Peace is possible
特里达·帕西: 伊朗和以色列：和平是可能的
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伊朗和以色列：两国关系紧张且矛盾不断。然而，在这些剑拔弩张的敌对言词下，隐藏着一段不为人熟知的合作史，甚至可以说是友谊史。特里达·帕西用这个内容丰富的演说，展示给我们一个看似不现实的旧时战略伙伴关系，是如何为长期争斗不断的两国的未来，带来和平的可能。
Trita Parsi - Political scientist
Trita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts. Full bio
Trita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
"Iran is Israel's best friend,
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“伊朗是以色列最好的朋友
00:14
and we do not intend to change our position
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而且我们也不打算就德黑兰的问题
00:17
in relation to Tehran."
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改变我们的立场。”
00:20
Believe it or not, this is a quote
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信不信由你，这些话
00:22
from an Israeli prime minister,
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直接引述自以色列总理
00:24
but it's not Ben-Gurion or Golda Meir
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这个首相不是伊朗国王时代的
00:26
from the era of the Shah.
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班古里安或戈尔迪•梅厄森
00:29
It's actually from Yitzhak Rabin.
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它其实是伊扎克•拉宾说的
00:31
The year is 1987.
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在1987年的时候
00:34
Ayatollah Khomeini is still alive,
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阿亚图拉•霍梅尼现在还在世
00:35
and much like Ahmadinejad today,
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就像今天的艾哈迈迪内贾德一样
00:37
he's using the worst rhetoric against Israel.
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他对以色列用了最差的措辞
00:40
Yet, Rabin referred to Iran
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但拉宾依然把伊朗
00:43
as a geostrategic friend.
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当作地缘战略伙伴
00:46
Today, when we hear the threats of war
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今天，当我们听到战争的恐吓
00:49
and the high rhetoric,
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和花言巧语
00:51
we're oftentimes led to believe
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我们时常去相信
00:52
that this is yet another one of those unsolvable
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这是另一个尚未解决的
00:55
Middle Eastern conflicts
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中东争端
00:57
with roots as old as the region itself.
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争端的渊源和宗教一样
有极长的历史
有极长的历史
01:01
Nothing could be further from the truth,
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事实上，没有什么比这一点更加偏离事实了。
01:05
and I hope today to show you why that is.
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我希望今天来告诉你们
为什么会这样
为什么会这样
01:09
The relations between the Iranian and the Jewish people
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伊朗人和犹太人的关系
01:11
throughout history has actually been quite positive,
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从古至今总体上来说是较好的
01:14
starting in 539 B.C.,
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那是从公元前539年
01:16
when King Cyrus the Great of Persia
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当波斯王朝的国王
居鲁士（又译塞勒斯）
居鲁士（又译塞勒斯）
01:18
liberated the Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity.
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解放了被巴比伦囚禁的犹太人
01:22
A third of the Jewish population
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三分之一的犹太人
01:24
stayed in Babylonia.
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留在了巴比伦
01:26
They're today's Iraqi Jews.
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他们就是今天的伊拉克犹太人
01:28
A third migrated to Persia.
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三分之一移民到了波斯
01:31
They're today's Iranian Jews,
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他们就是今天的伊朗犹太人
01:33
still 25,000 of them living in Iran,
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仍有 25,000人生活在伊朗，
01:36
making them the largest Jewish community
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他们成为了除以色列外
01:38
in the Middle East outside of Israel itself.
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中东地区最大的犹太社群
01:41
And a third returned to historic Palestine,
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三分之一回到了历史上的巴勒斯坦
01:44
did the second rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem,
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在耶路撒冷第二次重建了圣殿
01:47
financed, incidentally, by Persian tax money.
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顺便说一下，用的是波斯的税钱
01:52
But even in modern times,
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不过，即使在当代
01:54
relations have been close at times.
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有时关系也会变得比较密切
01:57
Rabin's statement was a reflection
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拉宾的声明是反映了
02:00
of decades of security and intelligence collaboration
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两国间几十年来的安全和情报合作
02:04
between the two, which in turn
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反过来说，这样的合作
02:06
was born out of perception of common threats.
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也是出于对某些共同威胁的担忧
02:10
Both states feared the Soviet Union
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这两个国家都害怕苏联
02:13
and strong Arab states such as Egypt and Iraq.
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和一些强大的阿拉伯国家，
例如埃及和伊拉克
例如埃及和伊拉克
02:18
And, in addition, the Israeli doctrine of the periphery,
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此外，以色列信奉的地缘政治
02:22
the idea that Israel's security was best achieved
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其理念是，以色列的国家安全目标
02:26
by creating alliances with the non-Arab states
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最好能通过与
非阿拉伯国家联盟达成
非阿拉伯国家联盟达成
02:30
in the periphery of the region
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在其领土的周围
02:32
in order to balance the Arab states in its vicinity.
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以平衡其附近的阿拉伯国家的力量
02:36
Now, from the Shah's perspective, though,
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尽管现在，从伊朗国王的角度看，
02:39
he wanted to keep this as secret as possible,
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他想要尽可能保守这个秘密
02:43
so when Yitzhak Rabin, for instance,
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所以当伊扎克 · 拉宾，例如，
02:45
traveled to Iran in the '70s,
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在七十年代，造访伊朗的时候
02:47
he usually wore a wig
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他通常戴着假发
02:48
so that no one would recognize him.
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这样就没有人能认出他来
02:51
The Iranians built a special tarmac
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伊朗人在德黑兰机场
建造了特别的停机坪
建造了特别的停机坪
02:53
at the airport in Tehran, far away from the central terminal,
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离中央航站楼很远
02:56
so that no one would notice the large number
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所以没有人会注意到
02:59
of Israeli planes shuttling between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
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大批的以色列飞机穿梭于
特拉维夫和德黑兰之间
特拉维夫和德黑兰之间
03:04
Now, did all of this end with the Islamic revolution
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现在，所有这一切都随着伊斯兰革命
03:07
in 1979?
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在 1979 年结束了吗？
03:10
In spite of the very clear anti-Israeli ideology
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尽管新的政权有很清晰的
反以色列意识形态
反以色列意识形态
03:13
of the new regime, the geopolitical logic
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两国在地缘政治逻辑下的合作
03:17
for their collaboration lived on,
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还在继续着
03:19
because they still had common threats.
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因为他们仍面对共同的威胁
03:22
And when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980,
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当1980年，伊拉克入侵伊朗的时候
03:25
Israel feared an Iraqi victory
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以色列担心伊拉克会赢得战争
03:28
and actively helped Iran by selling it arms
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便积极行动帮助伊朗，
03:30
and providing it with spare parts
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对其出售武器和提供备件
03:33
for Iran's American weaponry
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为伊朗提供美国武器装备
03:35
at a moment when Iran was very vulnerable
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当时伊朗非常脆弱
03:38
because of an American arms embargo
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由于美国对其实行武器禁运
03:41
that Israel was more than happy to violate.
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以色列却非常乐意违反这条禁令
03:44
In fact, back in the 1980s,
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事实上，早在 20 世纪 80 年代，
03:47
it was Israel that lobbied Washington
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是以色列游说华盛顿
03:49
to talk to Iran, to sell arms to Iran,
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与伊朗会谈，向伊朗出售武器
03:54
and not pay attention to Iran's anti-Israeli ideology.
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并不要在意伊朗的反以色列意识形态
03:59
And this, of course, climaxed
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当然，这在1980年代
04:01
in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s.
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伊朗反政府丑闻中
被推到风口浪尖
被推到风口浪尖
04:06
But with the end of the Cold War
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但随着冷战的结束
04:08
came also the end of the Israeli-Iranian cold peace.
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以色列和伊朗间的冷和平
也结束了
也结束了
04:12
Suddenly, the two common threats
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突然，那两个共同的威胁
04:15
that had pushed them closer together throughout decades,
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那几十年来推动着他们互相靠近的威胁
04:18
more or less evaporated.
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或多或少地消失了
04:20
The Soviet Union collapsed,
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苏联解体了
04:22
Iraq was defeated,
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伊拉克被打败了
04:24
and a new environment was created in the region
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一个新的环境在该区域中形成了
04:26
in which both of them felt more secure,
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这个新环境让两国都更有安全感
04:28
but they were also now left unchecked.
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但也使他们都无法被约束
04:31
Without Iraq balancing Iran,
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没有伊拉克制衡伊朗
04:34
Iran could now become a threat,
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伊朗现在可被视为一种威胁，
04:36
some in Israel argued.
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以色列一些人这样争论到
04:39
In fact, the current dynamic
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事实上，就当前的形势
04:42
that you see between Iran and Israel
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那些你所看到的发生在
伊朗与以色列之间的事
伊朗与以色列之间的事
04:44
has its roots more so
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其根源开始于
04:46
in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region
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冷战结束后该地区
04:49
after the Cold War
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地缘政治的结构发生了变化
04:50
than in the events of 1979,
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而不是1979年的一系列事件
04:53
because at this point, Iran and Israel
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因为冷战结束后，伊朗和以色列
04:56
emerge as two of the most powerful states in the region,
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成为该地区两个最强大的国家
05:00
and rather than viewing each other
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比起视对方为
05:01
as potential security partners,
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潜在的安全伙伴，
05:03
they increasingly came to view each other
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他们越来越将对方
05:06
as rivals and competitors.
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视作竞争对手
05:09
So Israel, who in the 1980s
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以色列那些在八十年代
05:11
lobbied for and improved U.S.-Iran relations
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为改善美国伊朗关系而游说的人
05:14
now feared a U.S.-Iran rapprochement,
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现在担心美国伊朗会和解
05:18
thinking that it would come
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认为那将牺牲
05:19
at Israel's security interests' expense,
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以色列的安全利益
05:23
and instead sought to put Iran
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而且试图将伊朗
05:25
in increased isolation.
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放在越来越被他国孤立的位置
05:27
Ironically, this was happening at a time
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讽刺的是，那时
05:30
when Iran was more interested
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伊朗更有兴趣
05:32
in peacemaking with Washington
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与华盛顿和解
05:35
than to see to Israel's destruction.
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而不是去理会以色列的破坏
05:38
Iran had put itself in isolation
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伊朗用激进主义
05:40
because of its radicalism,
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将自己放在了孤立的位置
05:42
and after having helped the United States indirectly
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在间接帮助美国
05:45
in the war against Iraq in 1991,
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1991 年对伊拉克的战争后
05:47
the Iranians were hoping
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伊朗人希望
05:49
that they would be rewarded by being included
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他们会因此得到回报
05:53
in the post-war security architecture of the region.
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从而被纳入该地区的
战后安全体系
战后安全体系
05:57
But Washington chose to ignore Iran's outreach,
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但华盛顿选择忽略伊朗的示好
06:01
as it would a decade later in Afghanistan,
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十年后在阿富汗他们也是这样，
06:03
and instead moved to intensify Iran's isolation,
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同时加紧对伊朗的孤立
06:08
and it is at this point, around 1993, '94,
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就在1993,1994年的时候
06:11
that Iran begins to translate
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伊朗开始将
06:14
its anti-Israeli ideology
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其反以色列的意识形态
06:16
into operational policy.
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化为实施方针
06:18
The Iranians believed that whatever they did,
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伊朗人相信不管他们做什么
06:20
even if they moderated their policies,
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即使他们缓和自己的政策，
06:23
the U.S. would continue to seek Iran's isolation,
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美国将继续对伊朗的孤立
06:26
and the only way Iran could compel Washington
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而伊朗唯一可能迫使华盛顿
06:30
to change its position was by imposing a cost
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改变其态度的方法便是
06:33
on the U.S. if it didn't.
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让美国如果不做出改变
就要为此付出代价
就要为此付出代价
06:36
The easiest target was the peace process,
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最容易的目标是和平进程，
06:40
and now the Iranian ideological bark
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现在的伊朗意识形态的吼叫
06:43
was to be accompanied by a nonconventional bite,
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伴随着非惯用的手段
06:47
and Iran began supporting extensively
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伊朗开始广泛支持
06:51
Palestinian Islamist groups that it previously
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那些他曾回避的
06:54
had shunned.
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巴勒斯坦伊斯兰团体
06:57
In some ways, this sounds paradoxical,
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某种程度上，这听起来很荒谬
07:00
but according to Martin Indyk
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但根据克林顿政府的
07:02
of the Clinton administration,
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马丁•安迪克（的作为）
07:04
the Iranians had not gotten it entirely wrong,
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伊朗人的策略也并不是完全错误
07:07
because the more peace there would be
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因为当以色列和巴勒斯坦
07:09
between Israel and Palestine,
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越发和平
07:11
the U.S. believed, the more Iran would get isolated.
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美国认为，伊朗越发会被孤立
07:14
The more Iran got isolated, the more peace there would be.
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伊朗越是被孤立，
以色列和巴勒斯坦才会越和平
以色列和巴勒斯坦才会越和平
07:17
So according to Indyk, and these are his words,
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所以依照安迪克所说
07:20
the Iranians had an interest to do us in
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“伊朗人的兴趣在于在和平进程中
07:23
on the peace process
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打击我们，
07:25
in order to defeat our policy of containment.
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以此打败我们的遏制政策。”
07:28
To defeat our policy of containment,
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要打败我们的遏制政策
07:31
not about ideology.
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不是意识形态。
07:35
But throughout even the worst times of their entanglement,
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但在他们整个的纠缠中，甚至是最糟糕的时代
07:39
all sides have reached out to each other.
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所有双方互相都达成共识。
07:42
Netanyahu, when he got elected in 1996,
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当内塔尼亚胡在1996年当选总理时
07:45
reached out to the Iranians to see
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他向伊朗人伸出了手
07:47
if there were any ways that
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寻找有无任何
07:49
the doctrine of the periphery could be resurrected.
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重建外围合作的可能
07:52
Tehran was not interested.
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可德黑兰对此不感兴趣
07:54
A few years later, the Iranians sent
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几年后，伊朗人
07:57
a comprehensive negotiation proposal to the Bush administration,
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向布什政府提出了全面谈判的提案
08:01
a proposal that revealed that there was some potential
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这个提案认为存在一些
08:05
of getting Iran and Israel back on terms again.
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使伊朗和以色列恢复关系的可能
08:09
The Bush administration did not even respond.
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布什政府却并没有响应
08:12
All sides have never missed an opportunity
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双方就这样错失了
08:15
to miss an opportunity.
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每一个机会
08:20
But this is not an ancient conflict.
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但这不是古老的冲突
08:25
This is not even an ideological conflict.
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这甚至不是意识形态的冲突
08:28
The ebbs and flows of hostility
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敌对状态的起起伏伏
08:31
have not shifted with ideological zeal,
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并不会因为意识形态而变化
08:34
but rather with changes in the geopolitical landscape.
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而是根据地缘政治格局而变化
08:37
When Iran and Israel's security imperatives
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当伊朗和以色列为了安全考量
08:39
dictated collaboration, they did so
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需要合作时，他们这样做了
08:42
in spite of lethal ideological opposition to each other.
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尽管彼此的意识形态依旧强烈反对对方
08:45
When Iran's ideological impulses collided
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当伊朗的意识形态
08:48
with its strategic interests,
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与它的战略利益出现冲突时
08:50
the strategic interests always prevailed.
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战略利益始终占上风
08:54
This is good news, because it means
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这是个好消息，因为它意味着
08:57
that neither war nor enmity
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既没有战争也没有仇怨
09:00
is a foregone conclusion.
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是注定要发生的。
09:03
But some want war.
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但有些人想要战争
09:06
Some believe or say that it's 1938,
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有些人相信甚至说
如果现在是1938 年
如果现在是1938 年
09:09
Iran is Germany,
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伊朗就是德国，
09:11
and Ahmadinejad is Hitler.
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艾哈迈迪内贾德是希特勒
09:14
If we accept this to be true,
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如果我们将此视为事实
09:16
that indeed it is 1938, Iran is Germany,
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事实上它就是1938年，伊朗就是德国，
09:19
Ahmadinejad is Hitler,
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艾哈迈迪内贾德就是希特勒，
09:22
then the question we have to ask ourself is,
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那我们给自己出了一个问题，
09:25
who wishes to play the role of Neville Chamberlain?
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谁愿意来扮演内维尔 · 张伯伦的角色？
09:28
Who will risk peace?
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谁将拿和平来冒险？
09:31
This is an analogy that is deliberately aimed
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这个类比意在
09:34
at eliminating diplomacy,
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去除外交考量
09:37
and when you eliminate diplomacy,
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当你除去外交考量
09:39
you make war inevitable.
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战争将无法避免
09:42
In an ideological conflict, there can be no truce,
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在意识形态的冲突中，
没有休战
没有休战
09:45
no draw, no compromise,
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没有平局， 没有妥协，
09:47
only victory or defeat.
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只有胜利或失败
09:51
But rather than making war inevitable
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然而比起将两国间矛盾
视为意识形态的冲突
视为意识形态的冲突
09:54
by viewing this as ideological,
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进而使得战争无法避免
09:57
we would be wise to seek ways
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更明智的作法是，
积极寻求方法
积极寻求方法
09:59
to make peace possible.
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创造和平的可能
10:02
Iran and Israel's conflict is a new phenomenon,
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伊朗和以色列的冲突是一种新现象
10:06
only a few decades old
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只是在长达2500 年的历史长河中的
10:08
in a history of 2,500 years,
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几十年
10:10
and precisely because its roots are geopolitical,
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而且正是因为冲突的根源在于地缘政治
10:14
it means that solutions can be found,
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这也意味着
是可以找到办法来解决的
是可以找到办法来解决的
10:17
compromises can be struck,
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两国可以达成和解
10:20
however difficult it yet may be.
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尽管它可能非常艰难
10:23
After all, it was Yitzhak Rabin himself who said,
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但是毕竟，这是拉宾自己说的
10:27
"You don't make peace with your friends.
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"你不需要和你的朋友讲和
10:30
You make it with your enemies."
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而要和你的敌人和解"。
10:32
Thank you.
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谢谢。
10:33
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Trita Parsi - Political scientistTrita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts.
Why you should listen
Writer and political scientist Trita Parsi is an expert observer of the labyrinthine relationships between the U.S. and the Middle East, cutting through conventional stereotypes to laying bare the often-contentious history of the region.
When Parsi was only 4, his family fled to Sweden from Iran to escape political repression. Parsi later relocated to the U.S., where he earned a PhD and founded the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a grassroots organization promoting the interests of the U.S./ Iranian community.
Trita Parsi | Speaker | TED.com