TED2016
Astro Teller: The unexpected benefit of celebrating failure
阿斯特罗·泰勒: 为失败喝彩带来的意外惊喜
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
2,686,287 views
“伟大的梦想不仅仅是幻想，”阿斯特罗·泰勒说，它们是幻想和让幻想成真的计划的组合产物。” X公司（原来的谷歌X）的领导人阿斯特罗·泰勒带领我们在“疯狂工厂”中一探究竟。在这里他的团队通过热气球网络，空中涡轮发电等实验寻求解决世界最艰难的问题的方案。一起探索X公司的员工敢于探索大胆的想法和挑战艰难的，有风险的项目的秘密。
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, author
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
As "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 1962 at Rice University,
0
760
3320
1962年在莱斯大学，
00:16
JFK told the country about a dream he had,
1
4760
4416
肯尼迪向国民宣布了他的梦想，
00:21
a dream to put a person on the moon
by the end of the decade.
by the end of the decade.
2
9200
3896
十年内完成把人类送上月球的梦想。
00:25
The eponymous moonshot.
3
13120
1400
即有名的登月计划。
00:28
No one knew if it was possible to do
4
16120
2576
没有人知道这件事有多大可能
00:30
but he made sure a plan was put in place
to do it if it was possible.
to do it if it was possible.
5
18720
4360
但是只要有可能
他就会全面地计划来落实这件事
他就会全面地计划来落实这件事
00:35
That's how great dreams are.
6
23560
1776
这才是伟大的梦想。
00:37
Great dreams aren't just visions,
7
25360
2456
伟大的梦想不仅仅是幻想，
00:39
they're visions coupled to strategies
for making them real.
for making them real.
8
27840
3680
它们是幻想
和让幻想成真的计划的组合产物。
和让幻想成真的计划的组合产物。
00:44
I have the incredible good fortune
to work at a moonshot factory.
to work at a moonshot factory.
9
32080
5416
我非常有幸可以
在这个疯狂工厂工作。
在这个疯狂工厂工作。
00:49
At X -- formerly called Google X --
10
37520
2296
在「X」，
也就是常说的「谷歌X」工作的时候，
也就是常说的「谷歌X」工作的时候，
00:51
you'll find an aerospace engineer
working alongside a fashion designer
working alongside a fashion designer
11
39840
4696
你可以看到航空工程师
和时尚设计师一起工作
和时尚设计师一起工作
00:56
and former military ops commanders
brainstorming with laser experts.
brainstorming with laser experts.
12
44560
4720
可以看到前实战军事指挥官
和激光专家一起头脑风暴。
和激光专家一起头脑风暴。
01:02
These inventors, engineers and makers
are dreaming up technologies
are dreaming up technologies
13
50360
5176
这些发明家，工程师和工匠
在一起设计
在一起设计
01:07
that we hope can make the world
a wonderful place.
a wonderful place.
14
55560
3760
可以让世界更好的科学技术。
01:12
We use the word "moonshots"
to remind us to keep our visions big --
to remind us to keep our visions big --
15
60200
4536
我们用“疯狂计划”这个词
来提醒我们仰望星空
来提醒我们仰望星空
01:16
to keep dreaming.
16
64760
1696
去坚持梦想。
01:18
And we use the word "factory"
to remind ourselves
to remind ourselves
17
66480
4456
我们用“工厂”这个词提醒我们
01:22
that we want to have concrete visions --
18
70960
3096
脚踏实地，
01:26
concrete plans to make them real.
19
74080
3296
用具体的方案把梦想付诸于现实。
01:29
Here's our moonshot blueprint.
20
77400
1936
这是我们疯狂计划的蓝图。
01:31
Number one:
21
79360
1216
首先，
01:32
we want to find
a huge problem in the world
a huge problem in the world
22
80600
2416
我们着眼于那些困扰亿万人
01:35
that affects many millions of people.
23
83040
2256
的世界性难题。
01:37
Number two:
24
85320
1496
其次，
01:38
we want to find or propose a radical
solution for solving that problem.
solution for solving that problem.
25
86840
3800
我们想找到一个彻底的解决方案。
01:43
And then number three:
26
91480
1376
最后，
01:44
there has to be some reason to believe
27
92880
2976
必须要有理由相信
01:47
that the technology
for such a radical solution
for such a radical solution
28
95880
3056
这个可以用于完美解决问题的方法
01:50
could actually be built.
29
98960
1440
在技术上是可行的。
01:53
But I have a secret for you.
30
101880
1616
我有一个秘密。
01:55
The moonshot factory is a messy place.
31
103520
3240
疯狂工厂是个混乱的地方，
01:59
But rather than avoid the mess,
32
107600
1816
我们不仅没有避免混乱，
02:01
pretend it's not there,
33
109440
1536
没有假装混乱不存在，
02:03
we've tried to make that our strength.
34
111000
1840
反而我们希望混乱成为我们的优势
02:06
We spend most of our time breaking things
35
114080
2816
我们的大多数时间
都用来搞坏各种东西
都用来搞坏各种东西
02:08
and trying to prove that we're wrong.
36
116920
1960
并试图证明我们是错的。
02:12
That's it, that's the secret.
37
120320
1640
就是这样，这就是秘密。
02:14
Run at all the hardest
parts of the problem first.
parts of the problem first.
38
122680
3536
从问题最难的部分着手。
02:18
Get excited and cheer,
39
126240
2055
激动地大喊：
02:20
"Hey! How are we going
to kill our project today?"
to kill our project today?"
40
128320
2439
“嘿！我们今天要扼杀我们的项目么？”
02:25
We've got this interesting balance going
41
133920
2720
我们一直保持着这种有趣的平衡，
02:29
where we allow our unchecked
optimism to fuel our visions.
optimism to fuel our visions.
42
137560
5536
一方面我们用
我们的无尽的乐观化作幻想的动力，
我们的无尽的乐观化作幻想的动力，
02:35
But then we also harness
enthusiastic skepticism
enthusiastic skepticism
43
143120
4456
另一方面我们
通过不停地质疑回到现实，
通过不停地质疑回到现实，
02:39
to breathe life, breathe reality
into those visions.
into those visions.
44
147600
3040
把现实注幻想之中。
02:43
I want to show you a few of the projects
45
151320
1936
我将会给各位展示一些
02:45
that we've had to leave behind
on the cutting room floor,
on the cutting room floor,
46
153280
2696
中途搁浅的项目，
02:48
and also a few of the gems
47
156000
1576
和一些到目前为止
02:49
that at least so far,
have not only survived that process,
have not only survived that process,
48
157600
3696
不仅依然存在，
02:53
but have been accelerated by it.
49
161320
2760
还更加生机勃勃的项目。
02:56
Last year we killed a project
in automated vertical farming.
in automated vertical farming.
50
164760
4416
去年我们扼杀了一个
叫做自动垂直种植的项目。
叫做自动垂直种植的项目。
03:01
This is some of the lettuce that we grew.
51
169200
2016
这是我们种出来的生菜。
03:03
One in nine people in the world
suffers from undernourishment.
suffers from undernourishment.
52
171240
3576
世界上九分之一的人
面临营养不良的问题。
面临营养不良的问题。
03:06
So this is a moonshot
that needs to happen.
that needs to happen.
53
174840
3096
所以需要一个疯狂的计划
来解决这个问题。
来解决这个问题。
03:09
Vertical farming uses 10 times less water
54
177960
2656
相比传统农业，
03:12
and a hundred times less land
than conventional farming.
than conventional farming.
55
180640
4136
垂直种植只用十分之一的水
和百分之一的土地。
和百分之一的土地。
03:16
And because you can grow the food
close to where it's consumed,
close to where it's consumed,
56
184800
4160
而且由于
03:22
you don't have to
transport it large distances.
transport it large distances.
57
190200
2680
蔬菜不用被长距离运输
03:27
We made progress in a lot of the areas
58
195160
2296
我们在很多领域求取得了突破
03:29
like automated harvesting
and efficient lighting.
and efficient lighting.
59
197480
3616
比如自动收获和高效照明。
03:33
But unfortunately,
60
201120
1456
但是不幸的是，
03:34
we couldn't get staple crops
like grains and rice to grow this way.
like grains and rice to grow this way.
61
202600
4056
稻谷这样的主要作物
无法用这种方法种植。
无法用这种方法种植。
03:38
So we killed the project.
62
206680
1520
所以我们扼杀了项目。
03:41
Here's another huge problem.
63
209120
1360
还有一个重大的问题。
03:43
We pay enormous costs in resources
and environmental damage
and environmental damage
64
211240
5176
我们付出了资源和环境的重大代价
03:48
to ship goods worldwide.
65
216440
2216
来进行世界范围内的货物运输。
03:50
Economic development
of landlocked countries
of landlocked countries
66
218680
2576
内陆地区的经济发展
03:53
is limited by lack
of shipping infrastructure.
of shipping infrastructure.
67
221280
3576
严重收到货运基础设施的限制。
03:56
The radical solution?
68
224880
1616
完美的解决方案？
03:58
A lighter-than-air,
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
variable-buoyancy cargo ship.
69
226520
4200
一个比空气轻的可变浮力货船。
04:04
This has the potential to lower,
70
232240
3376
这项计划有潜力
04:07
at least overall,
71
235640
1616
全面的减少
04:09
the cost, time and carbon
footprint of shipping
footprint of shipping
72
237280
4536
运输所需要的时间金钱和碳足迹，
04:13
without needing runways.
73
241840
1280
而且不需要专门的航路。
04:15
We came up with this clever set
of technical breakthroughs
of technical breakthroughs
74
243880
3056
我们实现了一系列科技突破
04:18
that together might make it possible
for us to lower the cost enough
for us to lower the cost enough
75
246960
4936
让我们减少了足够多的预算以至于
04:23
that we could actually make these ships --
76
251920
2136
我们可以实际上造出这些船。
04:26
inexpensively enough in volume.
77
254080
1640
至少单位空间上不是很贵。
04:28
But however cheap they would
have been to make in volume
have been to make in volume
78
256760
3319
但是无论单位空间多么便宜，
04:33
it turned out that it was going to cost
close to 200 million dollars
close to 200 million dollars
79
261320
3856
我们发现想要设计并制造第一艘船
04:37
to design and build the first one.
80
265200
2120
需要2亿美元。
04:40
200 million dollars
is just way too expensive.
is just way too expensive.
81
268680
3656
2亿美元实在太多了。
04:44
Because X is structured
with these tight feedback loops
with these tight feedback loops
82
272360
3816
因为X公司具有紧张的
04:48
of making mistakes
and learning and new designs,
and learning and new designs,
83
276200
3656
遇到问题-学习-新设计反馈循环，
04:51
we can't spend 200 million dollars
84
279880
1736
我们不能
04:53
to get the first data point
85
281640
1736
为了验证我们的想法
04:55
about whether we're
on the right track or not.
on the right track or not.
86
283400
2560
就在项目的第一个数据点上
花费2亿美元。
花费2亿美元。
04:58
If there's an Achilles' heel
in one our projects,
in one our projects,
87
286600
2336
如果我们的计划有漏洞，
05:00
we want to know it now, up front,
not way down the road.
not way down the road.
88
288960
4296
我们希望马上知道
而不是最后才知晓。
而不是最后才知晓。
05:05
So we killed this project, too.
89
293280
1680
所以我们也扼杀了这个项目。
05:08
Discovering a major flaw in a project
90
296880
2736
发现了项目中的重大缺陷
05:11
doesn't always mean
that it ends the project.
that it ends the project.
91
299640
2136
不一定总是意味着项目的终结。
05:13
Sometimes it actually gets us
onto a more productive path.
onto a more productive path.
92
301800
3176
有的时候它反而提供了
一种更有成效的方法。
一种更有成效的方法。
05:17
This is our fully self-driving
vehicle prototype,
vehicle prototype,
93
305000
3936
这是我们全自动驾驶工具的原型，
05:20
which we built without
a steering wheel or break pedal.
a steering wheel or break pedal.
94
308960
3160
它没有方向盘和刹车。
05:24
But that wasn't actually
our goal when we started.
our goal when we started.
95
312800
2400
但这却不是一开始我们想要的。
05:27
With 1.2 million people dying
on the roads globally every year,
on the roads globally every year,
96
315760
5896
120万人每年死于交通事故，
05:33
building a car that drives itself
was a natural moonshot to take.
was a natural moonshot to take.
97
321680
3816
制造一辆自动驾驶的车
自然是一个疯狂的计划。
自然是一个疯狂的计划。
05:37
Three and a half years ago,
98
325520
1600
三年半之前，
05:39
when we had these Lexus,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
retrofitted, self-driving cars in testing,
99
327920
5576
当我们使用凌志的
自动驾驶翻新车进行实验时
自动驾驶翻新车进行实验时
05:45
they were doing so well,
we gave them out to other Googlers
we gave them out to other Googlers
100
333520
3656
实验状况很好，
所以我们拿给其他谷歌成员试驾。
所以我们拿给其他谷歌成员试驾。
05:49
to find out what they thought
of the experience.
of the experience.
101
337200
2240
让他们评价一下这种体验。
05:52
And what we discovered
102
340000
1256
我们发现
05:53
was that our plan to have the cars
do almost all the driving
do almost all the driving
103
341280
4616
让汽车进行大部分驾驶工作
05:57
and just hand over to the users
in case of emergency
in case of emergency
104
345920
3896
在紧急情况下交给司机进行驾驶
06:01
was a really bad plan.
105
349840
3080
是一个非常糟糕的计划。
06:06
It wasn't safe
106
354200
1656
它不安全
06:07
because the users didn't do their job.
107
355880
3136
因为司机来不及开车。
06:11
They didn't stay alert
108
359040
1440
他们没有时刻保持警惕
06:13
in case the car needed
to hand control back to them.
to hand control back to them.
109
361160
4056
以防车把控制权交还给他们。
06:17
This was a major crisis for the team.
110
365240
2016
项目组遭受了巨大的危及，
06:19
It sent them back to the drawing board.
111
367280
2040
一夜回到解放前。
06:22
And they came up
with a beautiful, new perspective.
with a beautiful, new perspective.
112
370320
3360
随后他们从新的角度
想到了一个完美的方案。
想到了一个完美的方案。
06:26
Aim for a car where
you're truly a passenger.
you're truly a passenger.
113
374600
3720
在新的方案中你只是一个乘客，
06:31
You tell the car where you want to go,
114
379280
2256
你告诉车你要去哪里，
06:33
you push a button
115
381560
1256
按一下按钮，
06:34
and it takes you
from point A to point B by itself.
from point A to point B by itself.
116
382840
4160
车会自动的从A带你去B。
06:39
We're really grateful
117
387720
1296
我们很庆幸
06:41
that we had this insight
as early on in the project as we did.
as early on in the project as we did.
118
389040
3536
在项目的一开始
我们就想到了这一步。
我们就想到了这一步。
06:44
And it's shaped everything
we've done since then.
we've done since then.
119
392600
3960
从那以后我们所做的所有
都围绕着新的计划。
都围绕着新的计划。
06:49
And now our cars have self-driven
more than 1.4 million miles,
more than 1.4 million miles,
120
397200
6336
现在我们的车已经
自动驾驶超过140万英里
自动驾驶超过140万英里
06:55
and they're out everyday
121
403560
1616
它们每天都
06:57
on the streets of Mountain View,
California and Austin, Texas.
California and Austin, Texas.
122
405200
4040
在加州的山景城
和德州的奥斯丁的街道上跑。
和德州的奥斯丁的街道上跑。
07:02
The cars team shifted their perspective.
123
410120
3856
自动驾驶车团队改变了
他们看问题的角度。
他们看问题的角度。
07:06
This is one of X's mantras.
124
414000
2056
这是X公司的真谛之一。
07:08
Sometimes shifting your perspective
is more powerful than being smart.
is more powerful than being smart.
125
416080
4800
有的时候换个角度
比变聪明更加强大。
比变聪明更加强大。
07:13
Take wind energy.
126
421880
1496
再说说风能利用。
07:15
It's one of my favorite examples
of perspective shifting.
of perspective shifting.
127
423400
3336
这是我最喜欢的转变思路的例子。
07:18
There's no way that we're going to build
128
426760
2856
我们没有办法比
07:21
a better standard wind turbine
than the experts in that industry.
than the experts in that industry.
129
429640
4400
工业领域的专家
制造更好的风力涡轮机。
制造更好的风力涡轮机。
07:26
But we found a way
to get up higher into the sky,
to get up higher into the sky,
130
434720
4896
但是我们想到了一种
让它飞得更高的办法。
让它飞得更高的办法。
07:31
and so get access to faster,
more consistent winds,
more consistent winds,
131
439640
3816
越高的天空风力越强
也蕴含越多的能量，
也蕴含越多的能量，
07:35
and so more energy without needing
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
hundreds of tons of steel to get there.
132
443480
5656
但是我们需要上百吨钢铁的支架。
07:41
Our Makani energy kite
rises up from its perch
rises up from its perch
133
449160
3336
我们的马堪尼能量风筝从基站升起
07:44
by spinning up those
propellers along its wing.
propellers along its wing.
134
452520
3016
它的翅膀上有很多旋转的螺旋桨。
07:47
And it pulls out a tether as it rises,
135
455560
2320
它飞起来的时候会拉出一根
07:50
pulling energy up through the tether.
136
458640
1896
用来传递能量的绳子。
07:52
Once the tether's all the way out,
137
460560
1856
当这根绳子拉直的时候，
07:54
it goes into crosswind circles in the sky.
138
462440
3160
风筝就进入了侧风圈中。
07:58
And now those propellers that lifted it up
have become flying turbines.
have become flying turbines.
139
466320
5360
这时那些飞机上的螺旋桨
就变成了空中的涡轮机。
就变成了空中的涡轮机。
08:04
And that sends energy
back down the tether.
back down the tether.
140
472400
2680
用绳子把能量传递下来。
08:07
We haven't yet found
a way to kill this project.
a way to kill this project.
141
475880
2856
到目前我们还没发现
扼杀这个项目的办法。
扼杀这个项目的办法。
08:10
And the longer it survives that pressure,
the more excited we get
the more excited we get
142
478760
4096
它在这种压力下活得越久
我们越因为可能为世界
我们越因为可能为世界
08:14
that this could become
a cheaper and more deployable form
a cheaper and more deployable form
143
482880
4456
找到了一种更便宜的，
更广泛的获得风能的方式
更广泛的获得风能的方式
08:19
of wind energy for the world.
144
487360
1920
而惊喜不已。
08:23
Probably the craziest sounding project
we have is Project Loon.
we have is Project Loon.
145
491080
3480
也许我们最疯狂最有名的项目
就是气球项目了。
就是气球项目了。
08:27
We're trying to make
balloon-powered Internet.
balloon-powered Internet.
146
495320
3536
我们在尝试用热气球提供互联网。
08:30
A network of balloons in the stratosphere
147
498880
3080
平流层的热气球网络
08:34
that beam an internet connection down
to rural and remote areas of the world.
to rural and remote areas of the world.
148
502800
5096
可以让农村和偏远地区
全部连接互联网。
全部连接互联网。
08:39
This could bring online
as many as four billion more people,
as many as four billion more people,
149
507920
3896
这可以让超过40亿
08:43
who today have little
or no internet connection.
or no internet connection.
150
511840
2240
到今天还没有网络
或网络不畅的人用上网络。
或网络不畅的人用上网络。
08:47
But you can't just take a cell tower,
151
515120
2895
但是你不能造一个基站，
08:50
strap it to a balloon
and stick it in the sky.
and stick it in the sky.
152
518039
2897
绑在气球上固定在天上。
08:52
The winds are too strong,
it would be blown away.
it would be blown away.
153
520960
2376
风太大了，气球会被吹走。
08:55
And the balloons are too high up
to tie it to the ground.
to tie it to the ground.
154
523360
4400
气球又离地太远了不能固定在地上。
09:00
Here comes the crazy moment.
155
528800
1440
我们有了一个疯狂的想法。
09:03
What if, instead,
156
531000
2096
我们何不
09:05
we let the balloons drift
157
533120
2216
任由这些气球飘流
09:07
and we taught them how to sail the winds
to go where the needed to go?
to go where the needed to go?
158
535360
3840
但是告诉它们如何飘流
并让他们飘到指定地点呢？
并让他们飘到指定地点呢？
09:13
It turns out the stratosphere has winds
159
541560
3336
事实上平流层的风
09:16
that are going in quite different
speeds and directions in thin strata.
speeds and directions in thin strata.
160
544920
4096
在不同层有不同的速度和方向。
09:21
So we hoped that using smart algorithms
and wind data from around the world,
and wind data from around the world,
161
549040
4880
所以我们希望用
巧妙的算法和世界风向数据
巧妙的算法和世界风向数据
09:26
we could maneuver the balloons a bit,
162
554800
2456
来轻微地操纵气球，
09:29
getting them to go up and down
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
just a tiny bit in the stratosphere
163
557280
3096
让他们可以在平流层
上升或下降一点点
上升或下降一点点
09:32
to grab those winds going
in those different directions and speeds.
in those different directions and speeds.
164
560400
3616
以借助不同速度和方向的风。
09:36
The idea is to have enough balloons
165
564040
2296
这个想法基于足够多的气球
09:38
so as one balloon floats out of your area,
166
566360
2856
这样的话当一个气球
飞出了你的区域，
飞出了你的区域，
09:41
there's another balloon
ready to float into place,
ready to float into place,
167
569240
3736
另一个气球恰好进入，
09:45
handing off the internet connection,
168
573000
2616
交接网络连接，
09:47
just like your phone
hands off between cell towers
hands off between cell towers
169
575640
3456
就像你在高速公路上开车时
09:51
as you drive down the freeway.
170
579120
1640
电话信号在不同基站交接一样。
09:53
We get how crazy that vision sounds --
171
581760
4416
项目的名字一直提醒着我们
09:58
there's the name of the project
to remind us of that.
to remind us of that.
172
586200
2736
我们的想法是多么的不可思议。
10:00
So since 2012,
173
588960
2336
从2012年开始，
10:03
the Loon team has prioritized
the work that seems the most difficult
the work that seems the most difficult
174
591320
5776
气球团队开始解决项目中最难的
10:09
and so the most likely
to kill their project.
to kill their project.
175
597120
3840
最有希望扼杀项目的问题。
10:13
The first thing that they did
176
601920
1536
首先他们要做的，
10:15
was try to get a Wi-Fi connection
from a balloon in the stratosphere
from a balloon in the stratosphere
177
603480
4216
是让平流层中的
气球与地上的接收器
气球与地上的接收器
10:19
down to an antenna on the ground.
178
607720
2120
建立Wi-Fi连接。
10:22
It worked.
179
610720
1216
他们成功了。
10:23
And I promise you there were bets
that it wasn't going to.
that it wasn't going to.
180
611960
2715
相信我很多人打赌这会失败。
10:26
So we kept going.
181
614699
1240
所以我们继续研究。
10:28
Could we get the balloon
to talk directly to handsets,
to talk directly to handsets,
182
616880
3376
我们可以让气球直接和手机建立联系
10:32
so that we didn't need the antenna
as an intermediary receiver?
as an intermediary receiver?
183
620280
3360
从而省去中间的接收装置吗？
10:36
Yeah.
184
624720
1200
可以做到。
10:38
Could we get the balloon
bandwidth high enough
bandwidth high enough
185
626680
2616
可以增加气球的Wi-Fi带宽
10:41
so it was a real Internet connection?
186
629320
2736
到正常网络连接的程度么？
10:44
So that people could have
something more than just SMS?
something more than just SMS?
187
632080
4960
可以让人们用
气球网络做更多的事情么？
气球网络做更多的事情么？
10:49
The early tests weren't even
a megabit per second,
a megabit per second,
188
637640
3816
一开始的测试速度还不到1M/s，
10:53
but now we can do
up to 15 megabits per second.
up to 15 megabits per second.
189
641480
3416
现在速度已经达到了15M/s。
10:56
Enough to watch a TED Talk.
190
644920
1320
足够看TED的演讲了。
10:59
Could we get the balloons
to talk to each other through the sky
to talk to each other through the sky
191
647360
3576
我们可以实现气球之间的沟通么？
11:02
so that we could reach our signal
deeper into rural areas?
deeper into rural areas?
192
650960
4856
这样我们就可以
把信号更广地覆盖到农村地区。
把信号更广地覆盖到农村地区。
11:07
Check.
193
655840
1536
可以做到。
11:09
Could we get balloons the size of a house
to stay up for more than 100 days,
to stay up for more than 100 days,
194
657400
6656
我们可以用传统气球的5%的花销
11:16
while costing less than five percent
195
664080
2296
做一个像房子那么大的气球
11:18
of what traditional, long-life
balloons have cost to make?
balloons have cost to make?
196
666400
3560
并让它在天空上面
呆超过100天么？
呆超过100天么？
11:23
Yes. In the end.
197
671640
1896
是的，最终我们可以。
11:25
But I promise you, you name it,
we had to try it to get there.
we had to try it to get there.
198
673560
5040
我保证，只要你能想到的
我们都会尽力做到
我们都会尽力做到
11:31
We made round, silvery balloons.
199
679480
2840
我们制造了圆的银白气球
11:35
We made giant pillow-shaped balloons.
200
683200
3440
我们制造了超大枕头气球
11:40
We made balloons the size of a blue whale.
201
688400
2880
我们制造了蓝鲸那么大的气球
11:44
We busted a lot of balloons.
202
692440
2936
我们捅破了很多气球
11:47
(Laughter)
203
695400
1616
（笑声）
11:49
Since one of the things that was
most likely to kill the Loon project
most likely to kill the Loon project
204
697040
4056
因为这个项目会不会被扼杀
很大程度上取决于
很大程度上取决于
11:53
was whether we could guide
the balloons through the sky,
the balloons through the sky,
205
701120
3056
一个重要的技术，
就是如何在空中控制气球。
就是如何在空中控制气球。
11:56
one of our most important experiments
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
was putting a balloon inside a balloon.
206
704200
4760
其中一个重要的实验就是把气球放在气球中，
12:02
So there are two compartments here,
one with air and then one with helium.
one with air and then one with helium.
207
710280
3800
这样大气球中就有两种区域，
一种里面是空气一种里面是氦气。
一种里面是空气一种里面是氦气。
12:07
The balloon pumps air in
to make itself heavier,
to make itself heavier,
208
715360
3856
通过打气可以让气球变重，
12:11
or lets air out to make it lighter.
209
719240
2360
通过放气让它变轻。
12:14
And these weight changes
allow it to rise or fall,
allow it to rise or fall,
210
722520
3296
通过改变重量控制升降，
12:17
and that simple movement of the balloon
is its steering mechanism.
is its steering mechanism.
211
725840
3736
这就是它的转向装置。
12:21
It floats up or down,
212
729600
1656
通过上升和下降
12:23
hoping to grab winds going in the speed
and direction that it wants.
and direction that it wants.
213
731280
3920
气球可以借助风力
去它想去的地方。
去它想去的地方。
12:27
But is that good enough
for it to navigate through the world?
for it to navigate through the world?
214
735920
4200
但是这个气球已经足够好到
可以周游世界了么？
可以周游世界了么？
12:32
Barely at first,
215
740800
2536
一开始不可以，
12:35
but better all the time.
216
743360
1376
但是后面越来越好
12:36
This particular balloon,
our latest balloon,
our latest balloon,
217
744760
2080
这是我们最新的气球
12:39
can navigate a two-mile
vertical stretch of sky
vertical stretch of sky
218
747680
3560
他可以通过在空中
多达2英里的垂直运动
多达2英里的垂直运动
12:44
and can sail itself to within 500 meters
of where it wants to go
of where it wants to go
219
752280
4056
从20000公里外的地方
飘到距离目的地
飘到距离目的地
12:48
from 20,000 kilometers away.
220
756360
2600
误差小于500米的地方。
12:56
We have lots more to do
221
764360
2216
我们还有更多要做的事，
12:58
in terms of fine-tuning
the system and reducing costs.
the system and reducing costs.
222
766600
4576
包括系统的微调和减少开销。
13:03
But last year,
a balloon built inexpensively
a balloon built inexpensively
223
771200
3016
去年一个造价不贵的气球
13:06
went around the world
19 times over 187 days.
19 times over 187 days.
224
774240
6136
用187天周游了全世界19次。
13:12
So we're going to keep going.
225
780400
1440
我们将继续努力。
13:15
(Applause)
226
783120
3320
（掌声）
13:21
Our balloons today
227
789520
1256
现在我们的气球
13:22
are doing pretty much everything
a complete system needs to do.
a complete system needs to do.
228
790800
3360
可以满足一个复杂系统的所有需求。
13:27
We're in discussions
with telcos around the world,
with telcos around the world,
229
795160
2856
我们在和世界各地的通信公司联系，
13:30
and we're going to fly
over places like Indonesia
over places like Indonesia
230
798040
2336
而且我们今年将在印度尼西亚的上空
13:32
for real service testing this year.
231
800400
2736
进行实地的测试。
13:35
This probably all sounds
too good to be true,
too good to be true,
232
803160
2560
这些如果成真了
13:38
and you're right.
233
806800
1200
就太美妙了。
13:41
Being audacious
234
809320
1736
无畏地
13:43
and working on big, risky things
235
811080
2656
从事重大的，有风险的工作
13:45
makes people inherently uncomfortable.
236
813760
2480
让很多人从心里感到不适。
13:49
You cannot yell at people
and force them to fail fast.
and force them to fail fast.
237
817040
5080
你不能简单地逼迫他们尽快失败。
13:55
People resist. They worry.
238
823440
2096
他们会抗拒，会担心。
13:57
"What will happen to me if I fail?
239
825560
3056
“如果我失败了会发生什么？”
14:00
Will people laugh at me?
240
828640
1480
“人们会嘲笑我么？”
14:02
Will I be fired?"
241
830880
1440
“我会被开除么？”
14:05
I started with our secret.
242
833880
2696
演讲的开始我分享了我的秘密。
14:08
I'm going to leave you
with how we actually make it happen.
with how we actually make it happen.
243
836600
2880
现在我将告诉各位这是怎么做到的。
14:12
The only way to get people
to work on big, risky things --
to work on big, risky things --
244
840920
5016
让人们敢于挑战那些重大的
有挑战性的工作的
有挑战性的工作的
14:17
audacious ideas --
245
845960
1736
唯一办法，
14:19
and have them run at all
the hardest parts of the problem first,
the hardest parts of the problem first,
246
847720
4936
让他们直面问题中
最难的那部分的的唯一办法，
最难的那部分的的唯一办法，
14:24
is if you make that the path
of least resistance for them.
of least resistance for them.
247
852680
3880
就是
14:29
We work hard at X to make it safe to fail.
248
857360
3880
在X公司我们努力
让失败看起来很正常。
让失败看起来很正常。
14:34
Teams kill their ideas
as soon as the evidence is on the table
as soon as the evidence is on the table
249
862000
3936
当团队发现了明显的问题
就扼杀他们的想法
就扼杀他们的想法
14:37
because they're rewarded for it.
250
865960
2560
因为他们会因此得到奖励。
14:41
They get applause from their peers.
251
869160
2816
会得到同事的掌声。
14:44
Hugs and high fives
from their manager, me in particular.
from their manager, me in particular.
252
872000
3880
会得到主管，
尤其是我的拥抱和击掌。
尤其是我的拥抱和击掌。
14:49
They get promoted for it.
253
877160
2496
他们因此而被提拔。
14:51
We have bonused every single person
on teams that ended their projects,
on teams that ended their projects,
254
879680
6256
我们对终结一个计划
的团队的每个人都会进行嘉奖，
的团队的每个人都会进行嘉奖，
14:57
from teams as small as two
to teams of more than 30.
to teams of more than 30.
255
885960
3016
无论团队里是2个人
还是超过30个人。
还是超过30个人。
15:01
We believe in dreams
at the moonshot factory.
at the moonshot factory.
256
889000
2920
在疯狂工厂，我们相信梦想。
15:04
But enthusiastic skepticism
257
892840
2496
但是积极地质疑
15:07
is not the enemy of boundless optimism.
258
895360
3456
并不是无限乐观的敌人，
15:10
It's optimism's perfect partner.
259
898840
2680
反而是它的最佳搭档。
15:14
It unlocks the potential in every idea.
260
902280
4320
正是质疑让很多想法得以实现。
15:19
We can create the future
that's in our dreams.
that's in our dreams.
261
907720
3760
我们终将创造
我们梦中的未来。
我们梦中的未来。
15:24
Thank you very much.
262
912400
1296
非常感谢。
15:25
(Applause)
263
913720
6022
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Astro Teller - Entrepreneur, inventor, authorAs "Captain of Moonshots" for X, Astro Teller oversees the secret projects that could reshape our lives in coming decades.
Why you should listen
Astro Teller oversees X, Alphabet's moonshot factory for building magical, audacious ideas that can solve concrete problems for millions of people through science and technology. As X’s head, Teller has an unmatched vantage point from which to watch possible futures unfold.
In addition to his day job shepherding Peter Pans with PhDs, Teller is on the board of several businesses including AI-based hedge fund Cerebellum Capital, Inc., and Flux.io, a startup reinventing how buildings are designed and built. He is also the author of two novels and co-author (with Danielle Teller) of Sacred Cows, a nonfiction work analyzing society’s attitudes on divorce.
Astro Teller | Speaker | TED.com